從數(shù)據(jù)點評2021中國經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇之路

1、中國經(jīng)濟(jì)從疫情中強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)呈V型復(fù)蘇去年第四季度中國經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)呈V型復(fù)蘇，實際GDP同比增長6.5，超越了疫情前2019年第四季度6.0的增速。較2019年相比，中國全年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長2.3，使GDP總量首次突破人民幣100萬億元。中國國家統(tǒng)計局局長寧吉喆1在新聞通稿中強(qiáng)調(diào)，中國是全球唯一一個從 2020年疫情中快速恢復(fù)經(jīng)濟(jì)的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體，這得益于中國政府果斷行動先遏制疫情蔓延，再大力穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)。圖 1 中國是2020年全球唯一實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)正增長的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體國際貨幣基金組織GDP預(yù)測107.9865.28.842同比變化0-2-4-6-8-10-122.3-4.1 -4.3-5.3-5.8-8.3-10

2、.32.83.12.32.8資料來源： Wind2020估計2021預(yù)測中國俄羅斯美國日本巴西歐元區(qū)印度 HYPERLINK /zhibo/content_77118320.htm /zhibo/content_77118320.htm經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇范圍擴(kuò)大，包括私人需求回升與前三個季度相比，2020年第四季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇范圍大幅擴(kuò)大，大多數(shù)行業(yè)都恢復(fù)了增長。這不僅體現(xiàn)在完全恢復(fù)的服務(wù)業(yè)生產(chǎn)指數(shù)上，也體現(xiàn)在私人需求的行業(yè)上，例如私人部門固定資產(chǎn)投資和非必需品/奢侈品零售。這證實了政府對退出刺激措施的研判，即隨著政策制定者將重點轉(zhuǎn)向?qū)嶓w經(jīng)濟(jì)特定領(lǐng)域，政府將從2020年第一季度開始由政府主導(dǎo)的供給側(cè)措施等

3、刺激計劃中退出。具體來說，得益于制造業(yè)、建筑和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的快速回暖，去年第四季度經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)復(fù)蘇，而金融和信息技術(shù)行業(yè)在疫情中顯示出很強(qiáng)的韌性，現(xiàn)已成為新的重要支柱。在支出方面，投資（尤其是政府投資）和商品出口再次成為經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的主要支撐。然而，如上所述，餐飲、租賃和商業(yè)服務(wù)以及零售和批發(fā)等其他服務(wù)子行業(yè)都出現(xiàn)了不同程度的復(fù)蘇，這反映了私人需求出現(xiàn)反彈。圖 2 支撐GDP增長的主要因素是投資，其次是對外貿(mào)易8Percentage point contribution6420-2-4-6Dec-19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20-8實際GDP86420-2-4-6-8Consumpti

4、onInvestmentNet external tradeYear-on-year growth (RHS)資料來源： Wind19年 12月 20年 3月20年6月20年9月20年12月消費投資凈出口額同比增長（右軸）圖 3 國家主導(dǎo)的投資和生產(chǎn)引領(lǐng)復(fù)蘇，但私人需求于去年第四季度幾乎追上復(fù)蘇節(jié)奏1050同比變化-5-10-15-20-25Dec-19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-2019年12月20年 3月20年 6月20年9月20年12月Retail salesService production indexPrivate FAIValue-added of industr

5、y (VAI)Fixed asset investment (FAI)零售服務(wù)生產(chǎn)指數(shù)私人投資工業(yè)增加值固定資產(chǎn)投資資料來源： Wind疫情對中國產(chǎn)業(yè)升級影響有限通過固定資產(chǎn)投資（2020年同比增長2.9）數(shù)據(jù)，可以掌握資本投資的復(fù)蘇狀況。疫情下，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)向高附加值產(chǎn)業(yè)和現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)的 轉(zhuǎn)型依然保持強(qiáng)勁勢頭。高附加值產(chǎn)業(yè)中，高科技制造業(yè)（如制藥）和現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)（如電子商務(wù)）的投資分別同比增長11.5和9.1。同時，由于中國的市場開放，外國實體的投資在2020年也同比增長了10.6。同時，刺激措施提振市場信心，加速經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。得益于疫情爆發(fā)后出臺的貨幣和財政刺激措施，房地產(chǎn)和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資分別同比增長

6、7.0和0.9，商品房屋銷售同比增長8.7，使2020年成為有史以來房地產(chǎn)市場表現(xiàn)最強(qiáng)勁的年份之一。 截至2020年末，隨著投資情緒的改善，私人固定資產(chǎn)投資同比上升至1.0，而2020年第一季度同比下降近20.0。圖 4 高科技行業(yè)引領(lǐng)投資復(fù)蘇，房地產(chǎn)和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施行業(yè)緊隨其后固定資產(chǎn)投資 (FAI)2010同比變化0-10-20-30整體固定資產(chǎn)投資制造基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施私人高附加值產(chǎn)業(yè)房地產(chǎn)Headline FAIManufacturingInfrastructurePrivateHigh value-added industriesReal estateDec-19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20

7、Dec-2019年12月20年 3月20年 6月20年9月20年12月資料來源： Wind截至2020年末，消費者需求大都回歸疫情前軌道2020年，雖然中國全年零售額仍同比下降3.9，但市場全年都在穩(wěn)步復(fù)蘇，第四季度零售額同比增長4.6。例如，由于人們對社交距離的擔(dān)憂以及避免不必要的接觸，全年餐飲收入同比下降16.6，盡管如此，第四季度餐飲業(yè)也實現(xiàn)了反彈，同比增長0.15。去年第四季度奢侈品/非必需品的銷售額也非?？捎^，化妝品、珠寶和通信設(shè)備銷售額分別同比增長19.9、17.7和24.2。然而，隨著中國新冠肺炎新增病例數(shù)量在臨近年底時出現(xiàn)反彈，公眾的謹(jǐn)慎心態(tài)以及政府的強(qiáng)制性封鎖導(dǎo)致2020年1

8、2月零售額增速再次放緩，從11月的5.0降至4.6。零售市場的良好復(fù)蘇態(tài)勢得益于實際家庭收入的韌性，雖然與2019年同期相比，2020年上半年的家庭收入下降1.3，但全年仍增長 2.1。2020年2月，調(diào)查失業(yè)率升至6.2，達(dá)到歷史高位，但到2020年底降至5.2，與2019年同期持平。這主要得益于社會保障支出的增加以及穩(wěn)就業(yè)措施的出臺。圖 5 雖然服務(wù)業(yè)阻礙了零售業(yè)復(fù)蘇，但非必需品需求強(qiáng)勁252015105同比變化0-5-10-15-20-25-30-35-40-45-50零售額Dec-19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-2019年12月20年 3月20年 6月20年9月20年1

9、2月Headline retail salesCateringGeneral merchandizeJewelryCosmetics整體零售額餐飲一般商品珠寶化妝品資料來源： Wind圖 6 盡管失業(yè)常態(tài)化，但2020年下半年實際家庭收入仍實現(xiàn)正增長5.85.95.75.45.25.20.62.1-1.366.0年初迄今同比變化545.53215.04.019年12月實際家庭收入20年 3月20年 6月20年9月20年12月城市調(diào)查失業(yè)率（右軸）-3.90-14.5-2-3Dec-19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Real household incomeUrban surv

10、eyed unemployment rate (RHS)-4資料來源： Wind由于封鎖使供應(yīng)鏈扭曲，中國出口順差猛增2020年，中國出口額同比增長3.6，進(jìn)口額同比下滑1.1，全年貿(mào)易順差為5,350億美元，為歷史第二高順差年份，僅低于2015年。其主要原因是：首先，這得益于中國控制疫情且迅速恢復(fù)生產(chǎn)的能力，隨著世界其他地區(qū)陷入封鎖，中國仍然能夠維持生產(chǎn)。2020年 10月，中國在全球商品出口中所占份額從2019年的13.2上升至14.2。其次，隨著全世界因新冠肺炎疫情陷入封鎖，全球?qū)︶t(yī)療用品和遠(yuǎn)程辦公設(shè)備的需求激增。2020年，中國的醫(yī)療用品（包括口罩在內(nèi)的紡織品、醫(yī)療器械、藥品合計）出口

11、同比增長31.0，筆記本電腦、平板電腦和家用電器出口同比增長22.1，二者對中國出口增長的貢獻(xiàn)率超過85。在防疫物資出口方面，中國相當(dāng)于為中國以外的全球每個人提供了近40個口罩2。 第三，隨著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退，由于大 宗商品價格下跌導(dǎo)致進(jìn)口價格下降，中國貿(mào)易順差擴(kuò)大。圖 7 封鎖期間全球生產(chǎn)能力下降，2020年中國出口激增70060010億美元5004003002001000151413121110987620062008201020122014201620182020Merchandize trade surplusChinas share of world exports (RHS)實際家

12、庭收入城市調(diào)查失業(yè)率（右軸）資料來源： Wind圖 8 醫(yī)療用品和遠(yuǎn)程辦公設(shè)備對中國出口增長的貢獻(xiàn)率超過8540.529.223.511.814.33.650商品出口(2020)年初迄今同比變化40302010出口總額家用電器家具紡織品（包括口罩）照明設(shè)備醫(yī)療儀器及器械Total exportsHome electrical appliancesFurnitureTextile (incl. face masks)Lighting equipmentMedical equipment0資料來源： Wind HYPERLINK /zhibo/content_77110670.htm#fullTe

13、xt /zhibo/content_77110670.htm#fullText第四季度信貸環(huán)境保持寬松由于貨幣寬松政策，2020年社會融資總額達(dá)人民幣34.9萬億元，較2019年的人民幣25.6萬億元大幅增加。這主要是政府債券發(fā)行量（包括地方政府發(fā)行的債券）、新增人民幣貸款和公司債券發(fā)行量增加所致。臨近年末，一系列事件導(dǎo)致公司債券市場需求降溫，也導(dǎo)致信貸環(huán)境局部收緊，但是，2020年第四季度發(fā)放給企業(yè)的新增人民幣銀行貸款的流動性仍然很高，與2019年同期相比增長近50，因此很明顯，政府在保持政策立場寬松的同時，也在密切關(guān)注實體經(jīng)濟(jì)中的信貸狀況。圖 9 2020年信貸環(huán)境保持寬松社會融資總額12

14、14人民幣萬億元1013同比變化86124112010-29Mar-19Jun-19Sep-19Dec-19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Corporate bond issuanceOthers19年 3月 19年 6月 19年 9月 19年 12月 20年 3月20年6月20年9月 20年12月RMB loanGovernment bond issuance人民幣貸款 政府債券發(fā)行公司債券發(fā)行其他股票發(fā)行Equity issuanceOutstanding TSF (RHS)未償還社會融資總額（右軸）資料來源： Wind信貸杠桿2802402001601208040020

15、062008201020122014201620182020家庭公司中央政府地方政府圖 10 政策刺激下，綜合杠桿率強(qiáng)勁反彈家庭公司中央政府地方政府HouseholdCorporateCentral governmentLocal government資料來源： Wind政策制定者不接受增長勢頭出現(xiàn)“急轉(zhuǎn)彎”預(yù)計2021年經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)復(fù)蘇國際貨幣基金組織（“IMF”）贊賞中國政府采取了有力的防疫措施，為減輕疫情對經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響迅速出臺宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融扶持政策。IMF預(yù)計2021年中國經(jīng)濟(jì)將以7.9的增速繼續(xù)復(fù)蘇（盡管部分原因是 2020年基數(shù)較低），但這預(yù)測相當(dāng)取決于疫情的發(fā)展和影響，包括疫苗實施的速度

16、和有效性。盡管如此，國際貨幣基金組織還強(qiáng)調(diào)，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇并不平衡，且嚴(yán)重 依賴于公營機(jī)構(gòu)的支持，而經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計劃中使用的貨幣和財政措施 可能會扭轉(zhuǎn)政府過去五年去杠桿化和重新平衡中國增長引擎的進(jìn)展。因此，在夯實經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇基礎(chǔ)之前，中國必須繼續(xù)采取適度的扶持性 財政和貨幣政策，然而對于統(tǒng)合臨時性措施，更多地專注于支持實 體經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)的中期增長，時機(jī)很重要。ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_20_2542保持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的持續(xù)性、穩(wěn)定性和可持續(xù)性臨近2020年年末，中國政府政策會議明確提出，為應(yīng)對疫情沖擊帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響而出臺的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激措施可能會逐漸

17、退出，自2021年起政策立場將逐步調(diào)整以達(dá)至穩(wěn)增長與防風(fēng)險的平衡，同時保持對經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)的必要支持力度。2020年中央經(jīng)濟(jì)工作會議（CEWC）強(qiáng)調(diào)的目標(biāo)是確保經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的連續(xù)性、穩(wěn)定性和可持續(xù)性3。調(diào)整貨幣和財政政策立場繼中央經(jīng)濟(jì)工作會議之后，中國人民銀行和財政部的年度工作會議都顯示出2021年政策立場將恢復(fù)中性。中國人民銀行貨幣政策委員會2020年第四季度例會指出，信貸增長應(yīng)基本符合名義GDP的潛在增長，貨幣政策的目標(biāo)是遏制金融風(fēng)險和杠桿4。同時，中國人民銀行承諾進(jìn)一步支持中小企業(yè)融資和綠色融資，重申加強(qiáng)對互聯(lián)網(wǎng)金融的監(jiān)管，特別是其不受監(jiān)管的擴(kuò)張和壟斷行為5。繼2021年12月 31日宣布房地產(chǎn)貸

18、款緊縮政策后6，中國人民銀行將可能主要運用定向的非利率工具來保持對實體經(jīng)濟(jì)的金融支持力度。全國財政工作會議還呼吁在2021年采取更加“有效”和“可持續(xù)”的財 政政策7。我們認(rèn)為，會議表明盡管減稅和國家推動的投資還將繼續(xù)，但主要目標(biāo)是農(nóng)村部門、民生和環(huán)境保護(hù)，為此，財政部努力將綜合杠桿控制在可控范圍內(nèi)，低效無效項目將受到嚴(yán)格審查。今年的重點將是化解地方政府隱性債務(wù)風(fēng)險，包括地方政府融資平臺（LGFV）債務(wù)和其他地方政府擔(dān)保借款8。 HYPERLINK /politics/leaders/2020-12/18/c_1126879325.htm /politics/leaders/2020-12/1

19、8/c_1126879325.htm HYPERLINK /goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/4160250/index.html /goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/4160250/index.html HYPERLINK /goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/4159024/index.html /goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/4159024/index.html HYPERLINK /goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/4156106/index.html /gouto

20、ngjiaoliu/113456/113469/4156106/index.html HYPERLINK /zhengwuxinxi/caizhengxinwen/202012/t20201231_3638632.htm /zhengwuxinxi/caizhengxinwen/202012/t20201231_3638632.htm HYPERLINK /zhengwuxinxi/caijingshidian/jjrb/202101/t20210106_3639394.htm /zhengwuxinxi/caijingshidian/jjrb/202101/t20210106_3639394

21、.htm2021年要抓好八項重點任務(wù)同時，中國政府預(yù)計私人投資和消費將對沖常態(tài)化刺激，并且促進(jìn)這些領(lǐng)域結(jié)構(gòu)性發(fā)展的支持性政策可能正在醞釀之中。中央經(jīng)濟(jì)工作會議確定2021年要抓好八項重點任務(wù)推動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，包括強(qiáng)化國家戰(zhàn)略科技力量，增強(qiáng)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈供應(yīng)鏈自主可控能力，堅持?jǐn)U大內(nèi)需這個戰(zhàn)略基點，全面推進(jìn)改革開放，解決好種子和耕地問題，強(qiáng)化反壟斷和防止資本無序擴(kuò)張，解決好大城市住房突出問題，做好碳達(dá)峰、碳中和工作。所有這些重點任務(wù)都與2020年底發(fā)布的“十四五”規(guī)劃指引中的中長期政策目標(biāo)相呼應(yīng)。政府正在制定“十四五”規(guī)劃的細(xì)節(jié)，并將提請3月召開的全國人民代表大會審議批準(zhǔn)。我們維持以下觀點：全國人民代表大會

22、將淡化硬性發(fā)展目標(biāo)的重要性，轉(zhuǎn)而把目光投向科技發(fā)展和雙循環(huán)戰(zhàn)略9。這將為政策制定者留出足夠的發(fā)展空間，來適應(yīng)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革。概述“十四五”規(guī)劃和遠(yuǎn)景目標(biāo)，安永報告，2020年安永 | 建設(shè)更美好的商業(yè)世界安永的宗旨是建設(shè)更美好的商業(yè)世界。我們致力幫助客戶、員工及社會各界創(chuàng)造長期價值，同時在資本市場建立信任。在數(shù)據(jù)及科技賦能下，安永的多元化團(tuán)隊通過鑒證服務(wù)，于150多個國家及地區(qū)構(gòu)建信任，并協(xié)助企業(yè)成長、轉(zhuǎn)型和運營。在審計、咨詢、法律、戰(zhàn)略、稅務(wù)與交易的專業(yè)服務(wù)領(lǐng)域，安永團(tuán)隊對當(dāng)前最復(fù)雜迫切的挑戰(zhàn)，提出更好的問題，從而發(fā)掘創(chuàng)新的解決方案。安永是指 Ernst & Young Global Limit

23、ed 的全球組織，加盟該全球組織的各成員機(jī)構(gòu)均為獨立的法律實體，各成員機(jī)構(gòu)可單獨簡稱為“安永”。 Ernst & Young Global Limited 是注冊于英國的一家保證（責(zé)任）有限公司，不對外提供任何服務(wù)，不擁有其成員機(jī)構(gòu)的任何股權(quán)或控制權(quán)，亦不擔(dān)任任何成員機(jī)構(gòu)的總部。請登錄/privacy，了解安永如 何收集及使用個人信息，以及在個人信息法規(guī)保護(hù)下個人所擁有權(quán)利的描述。安永成員機(jī)構(gòu)不從事當(dāng)?shù)胤山沟姆蓸I(yè)務(wù)。如欲進(jìn)一步了解安永，請瀏覽 。 2021 安永，中國。版權(quán)所有。APAC no. 03011886ED None本材料是為提供一般信息的用途編制，并非旨在成為可依賴的會計、稅

24、務(wù)、法律或其他專業(yè)意見。請向您的顧問獲取具體意見。/china關(guān)注安永微信公眾號掃描二維碼，獲取最新資訊。Closing the COVID-ravaged year on a high note China 2020 GDP reviewHighlightsChina demonstrated remarkable resilience in 2020 as it became the only major economy to bounce back quickly from the COVID-19 pandemic. This is due to the decisive action

25、 of the Government against both the virus and the subsequent economic fallout. The stimulus has evidently led to gradual domestic demand improvements, while export demand strengthened as world production capacity plunged.The 4Q2020 economic data supports the Governments assessment that the stimulus

26、is ready to taper off. In 2021, gradual fine-tuning in policy stance will take place to balance growth and risk prevention. While keeping some necessary support to ensure continuity, stability, and sustainability in the economic recovery, policymakers are going to set their sights on longer-term pri

27、orities such as technology advancement at the National Peoples Congress in March 2021.Chinas economy emergedfrom the pandemicV-shaped recovery continued in 4QChina continued its V-shaped economic recovery with real GDP growing at 6.5 YoY in 4Q2020, exceeding the pace of growth before the pandemic at

28、 6.0 YoY in 4Q2019. Full-year economic growth, at 2.3 YoY, took Chinas GDP above RMB100t for the first time. Emphasized in the press release by Ning Jizhe1, Head of the National Bureau of Statistics, China is the only major economy to bounce back quickly from the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020, and a rem

29、arkable achievement attributable to the Governments decisive actions against both the virus and the subsequent economic fallout.Fig 1 China is the only major economy to post a positive economic growth in 2020International Monetary Fund GDP forecast107.9865.28.84YoY20-2-4-6-8-10-122.3-4.1 -4.3 -5.320

30、20e-5.8-8.3-10.32.83.12.32021f2.8ChinaRussiaUSJapanBrazilEuro areaIndiaNote: IMF is short for the International Monetary Fund Source: Wind HYPERLINK /zhibo/content_77118320.htm /zhibo/content_77118320.htmBroad-based improvement including private sectordemandCompared to the previous quarters, the rec

31、overy in 4Q2020has become even more broad-based with most industries returning to growth. This is reflected not only in the service production index which recovered fully, but also in the demand in the private sector, such as private fixed asset investment and the retail sales of discretionary/luxur

32、y goods. It supports the government assessment that the stimulus, which began in 1Q2020 with government-driven supply-side measures, is ready to taper off as the policymakers turn their focus on specific areas of the real economy.Specifically, the economy in 4Q2020continued to be supported by the ra

33、pid recovery of the manufacturing, construction and real estate sector, while the financial and information technology sectors are the new backbones that were remarkably resilient despite the pandemic. By expenditure, the recovery was supported again primarily by investment, particularly government

34、investment, and merchandize export. Nevertheless, as noted above, other service sub-sectors such as catering, rental and business services, and retail and wholesale have all shown improvements to different degrees, reflecting rebounds in private demand.Fig 2 GDP growth supported mainly by investment

35、, followed by contribution from external tradeReal GDP88Percentage point contribution66442200-2-2-4-4-6-6-8-8Dec-19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Source: WindConsumptionInvestmentNet external tradeYear-on-year growth (RHS)Fig 3 Recovery led by state-led investment and production but private demand almost c

36、aught up by 4Q2020105YoY YTD0-5-10-15-20-25Dec-19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Retail salesPrivate FAIFixed asset investment (FAI)Service production indexValue-added of industry (VAI)Source: WindThe pandemic has limited impact on Chinas industryupgradeWith a closer look at capital formation through fixed

37、asset investment (FAI), which expanded by 2.9 YoY in 2020, Chinas transformation toward high value-added industries and modern services has maintained its momentum despite the pandemic. The high value-added industry, of which investment on hi-tech manufacturing (such as pharmaceuticals) and modern s

38、ervice industries (such as e-commerce) increased by 11.5 YoY andYoY, respectively. Investment by foreign entities, as a resultof Chinas regulatory opening, also expanded by as much as10.6 YoY in 2020.Meanwhile, the stimulus has accelerated the economys recovery through a boost of confidence. Real es

39、tate and infrastructure investments, which increased by 7.0 YoY and 0.9 YoY, respectively, subsequent to the post-outbreak monetary and fiscal stimulus. Commodity home sales, which rose by 8.7 YoY, made the property market in 2020 one of the most robust years on record. By end-2020, private FAI also

40、 rose to 1.0 YoY as sentiment improved, up from close to -20.0 YoY decline in 1Q20.Fig 4 Hi-tech sector led investment recovery, followed by real estate and infrastructureFixed asset investment (FAI)2010YoY YTD0-10-20-30Dec-19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Headline FAIManufacturingInfrastructurePrivateHigh

41、 value-added industriesReal estateSource: WindConsumer demand mostly returned to pre-COVID trajectory by end-2020Chinas retail sales declined by -3.9YoY in 2020, although the market has gone through steady recovery throughout the year, leading to a 4.6 YoY growth in 4Q. For example, despite the full

42、- year decline in catering revenue at -16.6 YoY, due to widespread concern about social distancing and avoidance of unnecessary contact, it also rebounded to 0.15 YoY in 4Q. The sales of luxury/discretionary products were also remarkable in 4Q2020 with cosmetics, jewelry, and communication equipment

43、 rising by19.9 YoY, 17.7 YoY and 24.2 YoY respectively. However, as the number of new COVID-19 infection rebounded in China toward year-end, public caution and mandatory lockdown slowed retail sales again in December 2020 to 4.6 YoY from 5.0 YoY in November.The sound recovery in the retail market wa

44、s caused by resilient real household income, which increased by 2.1 YoY in full-year 2020 after declining by -1.3 YoY in 1H20. The surveyed unemployment rate, which had jumped to a historical high at 6.2 in February 2020, also returned to the level in 2019 at 5.2 by end-2020. This is in large part d

45、ue to the increased social security payouts and the measures to stabilize employment.Fig 5 Retail sales recovery was hindered by services while demand for discretionary products was robust25201510YoY50-5-10-15-20-25-30-35-40-45-50Retail salesDec-19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Headline retail salesCaterin

46、gGeneral merchandizeJewelryCosmeticsSource: WindFig 6 Real household income growth has turned positive in 2H20, while unemployment rate normalized5.85.95.75.45.25.20.62.1-1.3-3.965YoY YTD43210-1-2-3-4Dec-19Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20Real household incomeUrban surveyed unemployment rate (RHS)6.05.55.04.

47、54.0Source: WindExport surplus jumped as lockdown distorted global supply chainWith exports growing at 3.6 YoY and imports contracting at -1.1 YoY in 2020, Chinas merchandize trade surplus reached USD535b, the second highest in history after 2015. First, this was due to Chinas ability to control the

48、 outbreak and resume production quickly, such that while the rest of the world was in lockdown China was still able to maintain production. Chinas share of global merchandize exports increased to 14.2 in October 2020, up from 13.2 in 2019.Second, as the world entered lockdown due to the COVID-19 pan

49、demic, demand for both medical supplies and work-from- home supplies surged. In 2020, Chinas export of medical supplies (including textile such as masks, medical equipment and medicine) increased by 31.0 YoY, while the exports of tablets,computers and home electrical appliances increased by 22.1 YoY

50、.Together, they accounted for over 85 of Chinas export growth. This is equivalent to around 40 face masks for each person in the world outside China2. Third, as the world economy entered recession, the decline in commodity price contributed to lower import price and larger trade surplus for China.Fi

51、g 7 Chinas exports jumped in 2020 amid reduced global production capacity during lockdown700600USD b5004003002001000151413121110987620062008201020122014201620182020Source: WindMerchandize trade surplusChinas share of world exports (RHS)Fig 8 Medical supplies and work-from-home supplies accounted for

52、 over 85 of Chinas export growth40.529.223.511.814.33.650Merchandize exports (2020)Source: Wind40YoY YTD3020100Total exportsFurnitureLighting equipment Home electrical appliancesTextile (incl. face masks)Medical equipment HYPERLINK /zhibo/content_77110670.htm#fullText /zhibo/content_77110670.htm#ful

53、lTextCredit environment remained accommodative in 4QIn 2020, total social financing expanded significantly to RMB34.9t, from RMB25.6t in 2019, as a result of monetary easing. This is mostly caused by the increase in government bond issuance (including local government issuance), new RMB loans, and c

54、orporate bond issuance. Toward the year-end, repeated incidences have led to cooldown in corporate bond market demand, which contributed to partial tightening of the credit environment. But as the volume of new RMB bank loans extended to the corporate sector remains very liquid in 4Q2020 with close

55、to 50 increase from the same period last year, it is evident that the Government is closely following the credit condition in the real economy with an accommodative stance.Fig 9 Accommodative credit environment in 2020Total social financing (TSF)121410138YoYRMB t6124112010-29Mar-19Jun-19Sep-19Dec-19

56、Mar-20Jun-20Sep-20Dec-20 RMB loanCorporate bond issuanceEquity issuanceGovernment bond issuanceOthersOutstanding TSF (RHS)Source: WindFig 10 Total leverage picked up strongly amid the stimulusCredit leverage28024020016012080400Central government20062008201020122014201620182020Source: WindHouseholdCo

57、rporateCentral GovernmentLocal governmentPolicymakers accepting no sharpturn in growth momentumRecovery expected to continue in 2021The International Monetary Fund (IMF) commended the Chinese authorities for the effective containment measures and swift macroeconomic and financial policy support to m

58、itigate the economic impact of the pandemic. The IMF expects the recovery of the Chinese economy to continue at 7.9 YoY growth in 2021 (albeit partly due to the low base in 2020), but that to a large extent still depends on the development and impact of the pandemic, including the speed of implement

59、ation and effectiveness of the vaccines.Nevertheless, the IMF also stressed that the recovery was unbalanced and heavily dependent on public support, while the monetary and fiscal measures used in the stimulus could reverse the Governments progress on deleveraging and rebalancing Chinas growth engin

60、es in the past five years. As such, while a continuation of the moderately supportive fiscal and monetary policies is necessary until the recovery is on solid ground, timing is important for the temporary measures to be consolidated to focus more on supporting sustainable medium-term growth in the r