荷蘭石油SWOT分析課件

1、Sector Sketch and SWOT Analysis of the Dutch Oil Sector Final Presentation Dutch Ministry of Economic AffairsOil DivisionThe Hague, 3rd February 2019第1頁，共38頁。A conflict appears to be emerging between the traditional Dutch economic strengths and more recent environmental concernsDutch economic prospe

2、rityOil industry focussed on exportsFounded on tradingMotor of Rotterdam trading strengthDutch environmentLegitimate environmental concernsHigh population density low-lying - vulnerable to Global warmingGlobal warming CongestionNoiseExport industry must be internationally competitive to surviveTough

3、 environmental stanceConflict第2頁，共38頁。ContentsPageA. Extracts from Sector SketchB. Feedback from oil and chemical company interviewsC. SWOT AnalysisC.1. StrengthsC.2. WeaknessesC.3. OpportunitiesC.4. ThreatsD. Recommendations47111217232631第3頁，共38頁。A. Extracts from Sector Sketch第4頁，共38頁。The Dutch oil

4、 industry has traditionally been strong and internationally orientatedRefining and ChemicalsTradingPortsOnly 15% of total oil supply destined for home marketAccounts for 9% of EU refining capacityKey synergies with and supply to Dutch chemicals industryBenelux chemical cluster is second largest in E

5、uropeRotterdam worlds leading port for 30 yearsRoad, rail, inland waterway and pipeline connections to many major marketsMajor oil trading market in the EU time zone and one of the big 3 globally (Rotterdam, Houston, Singapore)第5頁，共38頁。Each sector in the oil industry faces important issues affecting

6、 its competitive positionOil refiningIncreasing costs of environmental complianceMergers/alliances change the competitive sceneOvercapacity and low returnsStorageSupports the international businessFosters independent tradersOvercapacity and low returnsTradingStrong role of refining companiesDependen

7、t on critical mass of Rotterdam marketBunkeringImportant fuel oil outlet for refinersRefiners becoming dominantPipelinesPipelines and waterways key to Rotterdam logistical advantageDominated by private or consortium owned pipelinesChemicalsImportant synergies with oil sectorSector entering downturnL

8、ong-term growth potential第6頁，共38頁。B. Feedback from oil and chemical company interviews第7頁，共38頁。Environmental and clean-up regulations were central to views expressed by most intervieweesRole of the NetherlandsDecisionmaking bodiesLand releaseCurrent situationIndustry viewpointAlternative approachGoe

9、s ahead of competing countries on environmental issuesThis undermines competitive position of oil and chemical industriesLead by influencing EU consensus rather than by exampleSignificant regional and national variation on environmental regulationsCompetition to be greenerVariation prevents the exis

10、tence of a level playing fieldPlace environmental decision making and implementation in the hands of one bodyClean-up costs are a formidable exit barrierLand can be released if economically viableCosts of clean-up should be balanced against cost of land reclamationHowever, the governments willingnes

11、s to discuss and reach consensus was appreciated第8頁，共38頁。All interviewees recognised the World Class infrastructure of Rotterdam, although there are three major contentious issuesPort feesCommoncarrier pipelineMaasvlakte 2Current situationIndustry viewpointAlternative approachHarbour dues based on t

12、onnage rather than services usedRotterdam is more expensive than Antwerp, Le Havre or Hamburg. The oil industry subsidises the container industryBase charges more on services than on tonnage basisNo common-carrier pipeline existsMay be economically viableConsider common carrier where extra flexibili

13、ty needed, but compensate owners of pipelines for investment and riskPositive discussion likely: new land reclamation at high costExtra land will favour chemical sectorThe oil industry does not require extra landEnsure proper funding for Maasvlakte 2:No burden on oil industry第9頁，共38頁。Pressure for ra

14、tionalisation is likely to coincide with timing of investment to meet future fuel specificationsOvercapacityFuture fuel specificationsCurrent situationIndustry viewpointDespite recent closures, there remains up to 15% overcapacityAs many as 13 EU refineries need to closeIssue complicated further by

15、recent mergersClean-up costs remain the biggest barrier to exit; social costs are also significantTarget specifications for 2019 require 40 bn investment across the EUOf the Dutch refineries, only Esso and Shell are well placed to meet 2019 specs without major investment第10頁，共38頁。C. SWOT Analysis第11

16、頁，共38頁。C.1. Strengths第12頁，共38頁。The Dutch oil sector is large and well concentrated, accounting for 9% of EU refining capacity (compared to 4.5% consumption)EuropoortPernisCrude Capacity (b/d)NerefcoShellEssoTotalKPIS&H374,000400,000180,000148,00070,00010,000BotlekVlissingen+xAmsterdamEuropoort79,500

17、KochEuropoortSource: Ministry of Economic Affairs第13頁，共38頁。All elements of the oil sector are closely integratedChemical clusterRefiningInternational trading portOpen and co-operative governmentStorage and BunkeringServices, utilities and contractors第14頁，共38頁。This integration is supported by world c

18、lass infrastructureHarbours and terminalsDeep water harbours, particularly RotterdamDirect accessibility for the worlds largest tankersHigh volume capacity and short turn-around timeExtensive barge handlingPipelinesSupply Belgium and Germany with crude and productsConnections to major chemical clust

19、ers in and beyond the NetherlandsMore than 1100km network within Rotterdam linking producers and storage companiesRoad and RailConsiderable infrastructure currently in placeMajor investment programme in progress第15頁，共38頁。The Dutch ports, particularly Rotterdam, benefit from advantageous locationsClo

20、se to North Sea oil fieldsNatural port for ME crudes destined for NW European marketHolland one of the most densely populated European countriesPopulation of 160 million within 500km radiusNavigable inland waterways to major markets第16頁，共38頁。C.2. Weaknesses第17頁，共38頁。Overcapacity has led to low profi

21、tability in the Dutch oil sector and increasing pressure for rationalisationRefiningStorageOvercapacity in Holland reflects the trend in EU as a wholeExport refineries with low conversion capacity are vulnerable (although speciality niches help profitability)Long term structural overcapacityRecent m

22、ergers and alliances create an uncertain outcome for Dutch oil第18頁，共38頁。Of the Netherlands refineries, only Shell and Esso have the up-grading flexibility to meet future demands with only limited investmentSource: IEA; Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, RB&P analysisFCC equivalent conversion capaci

23、ty(% distillation capacity)Distillation capacity MT/year12%25%99%3.820.07.4918.737%KPI EuropoortTotal/DOW VlissingenEsso RotterdamShell PernisNerefco (BP/Texaco)Europoort34% EU Refineries average66%38% Germany40% United Kingdom24% France23% BelgiumAverage Conversion Capacities54% The Netherlands第19頁

24、，共38頁。In addition, the Netherlands attempts to lead rather than go with European environmental legislationEU has set new product specificationsButNo level playing field for refinery emissions atEU levelEnforcement of regulations stricter in NetherlandsInconsistencies between National, Regional and M

25、unicipal authoritiesDutch Oil Sector第20頁，共38頁。The cost of clean-up regulations in Rotterdam is distorting the incentives for the oil industry to release unused landbutThe Lose-Lose outcome can only change to Win-Win by altering the incentives for land releaseClean-up costs in EU are between NLG 100m

26、 - NLG 400m per refinery (NLG 60-120/m2)Even where plants have closed, oil industry has incentive to retain land and pay rent rather than pay immediate clean-up costSimilar economics constrain release of surplus land from storage terminalsProjected shortage of land for expansion is driving Maasvlakt

27、e 2 projectCost of land reclamation is expensive and will be borne by taxpayer initially (NLG 500/m2)第21頁，共38頁。Government policy is seen to focus solely on Rotterdam, partly as a consequence of Main Port PolicyVlissingenOnly one jetty terminal (up to 120,000 dwt)Isolated from natural gas pipelinesWh

28、en chemical companies found Rotterdam unfavourable, Antwerp was chosen above other Dutch portsAmsterdamGrowth limited by water depth/ship sizeLack of refining limits synergies between oil and chemicals第22頁，共38頁。 C.3. Opportunities第23頁，共38頁。There are opportunities for new businesses or substantial ex

29、tensions to existing activitiesEnergyPipelinesElectricity co-generationLow level heat collection and distributionCO2 collection for greenhousesCommon carrier to reduce transport costs and meet environmental aims Ethylene pipeline for chemicalsHigh value-added productionStorageUpgrade products for re

30、fineries unable to meet environmental specsHigh quality product strategy for export to premium marketsPush for higher share of chemicals growthUse excess storage to hold strategic stocks for whole EU第24頁，共38頁。Overcapacity is a long-term problem that needs to be addressed by industry but may be helpe

31、d by Government assistanceFocuses investment on areas of strengthThere is potential for individual plant closuresRecent mergers/cluster approach may lead to new combinationsOpportunityActionAimStrongest units operate near fuel capacityLand would be made available for port expansionGovernment Introdu

32、ce incentives for clean-up of former or surplus sitesBest use of unused landCompanies optimise within international networksFocus on strong competitive unitsGovernment sponsor discussion on optimisationAlternative for uncompetitive units第25頁，共38頁。 C.4. Threats第26頁，共38頁。The greatest threat is that pr

33、essure to adopt the highest environmental standards will hit the oil industry too hard, and erode public supportOver-zealous environmentalism could break the Dutch oil industryNetherlands is much tougher on policing common environmental rules than other EU states Pressure groups and Municipalities c

34、ompete to appear greenerImplementation methods are not seen as consistent with the true needsOil may no longer be seen as a contributor to society第27頁，共38頁。High costs associated with Rotterdam are currently outweighed by advantages. Shifts in the labour rate - productivity balance could change thisP

35、ort dues on tonnage basis has led to highest crude import costs in EuropeHigh construction costsOne of the highest labour rates in EuropeHigh social costsCompetitive logisticsProximity to market placeHigh labour productivitySkilled workforce/trading experienceLow port land rentals第28頁，共38頁。External

36、competition may increase or become distortedEU CompetitionGlobal CompetitionCheaper services at competing portsPetropreneurs buy cheap assetsEU member states or unions support own weaker refineriesMiddle East oil product and base chemical exportsChemical growth attracted to US by lower costs第29頁，共38

37、頁。Substitution and new technology could cause a surprise drop in oil demand, but no significant change likely before 2019TransportCommon rail technology will make diesel substantially more efficientHybrid enginesBiomass ethanol could substitute mogas and dieselFuel cell technology no significant imp

38、act before 2019Increase in diesel market share may distort refinery economicsLPG/CNG substitution of mogas and dieselThe current very low crude oil prices will delay any substitution effectsOther usesGas (from Russia/ North Sea) will substitute heating oil in Belgium and GermanyRenewable fuels in ex

39、port markets FO for electricity GO home/commercial heating LFO for industry第30頁，共38頁。 D. Recommendations第31頁，共38頁。Four key issues need to be addressed to ensure long term international competitiveness of the oil industryLong term competitivenessStable industrial policyAffordable environmental policy

40、Action on infrastructure costsOptimisation of oil industryThere is also scope for streamlining procedures and encouraging new value-added activities第32頁，共38頁。A stable, visible government policy for the oil sector needs to be agreed, and external trends regularly monitoredSeek consensus onenvironment

41、 trade-offsize of oil industrytype of oil activitieslocation and logistics corridorsPublicise agreed visionOwn plansLinkages with own international networksImplications of locationsConcrete idesImplications of increase or decrease in oil industry presenceVROM part of consensusLocal authorities broug

42、ht into consensus and location planningLong term policy developmentEvaluate international oil industry trendsProvide own information and benchmarks on competitiveness of Dutch oil industryBenchmark cost infrastructure and chargesVROMCompare other EU states environment regulationsRegular feedbackMini

43、stry of Economic AffairsOil IndustryPortsOther第33頁，共38頁。Environmental principles for oil should balance the need for competitiveness with Dutch environment needsAgree approach with VROMMonitor proposals that add extra cost above competitorsEnsure only implemented if environment impact highReview exi

44、sting targets for oil industrySeek changes if undue competitive penaltyProvide credible estimates of compliance costsProvide comparisons with competing areasAffordable environment policyFlexible implementationVROMOnly act ahead of competitor nations for clear benefitVROMRetain flexible mechanisms fo

45、r implementationConsider use of trading rightsAt same time, continue to encourage wider EU progress on environmental standards and level playing fieldMinistry of Economic AffairsOil IndustryOther第34頁，共38頁。Optimisation, including scope for economically viable rationalisation, must be addressed by the

46、 oil industry - but with active encouragement of the MinistryExplore scope/benefits of optimisation and/or rationalisationOptimise within own international networksScope for optimisationRemove barriers to rationalisation Discuss change of approach to clean-up costs of port landReveal full potential

47、for release of port landReview effect of any throughput reductionsExplore cost/benefit of port land released compared to land reclamationVROM to review land clean-up requirementsBarriers to rationalisationSecure support of authorities for rationalisation/ optimisation VROMCompetition authoritiesLoca

48、l authoritiesEnabling roleObject of optimisation is to secure long term competitiveness. Some rationalisation may also reduce emissions and congestionMinistry of Economic AffairsOil IndustryPortsOther第35頁，共38頁。Further actions to maintain strong and competitive infrastructure should be consideredConsider selected existing pipelines as candidatesNew pipeline investment where viableLogisticsEnsure fast approval and development of infrastructure projectsCompetitive local authority taxes/ratesIf benchma