Q4北美金屬與采礦業(yè)盈利預(yù)覽

1、CS minus consensus Q4/18 EPS estimate6 February 2019 Americas/Canada Equity Research Metals & MiningMetals and MiningResearch AnalystsFahad Tariq, CPA, CA416 352 4593 HYPERLINK mailto:fahad.tariq fahad.tariqMark Llanes, CPA, CA416 352 4585 HYPERLINK mailto:mark.llanes mark.llanesPRE RESULTS COMMENTQ

2、4/18 Earnings PreviewThe North American metals and mining universe begins reporting fourth quarter earnings on February 13 before-market. Our sector preview includes an earnings and catalyst calendar, CS financial and operational estimates vs. consensus, and individual company outlooks. We also prov

3、ide macro thoughts upfront and a brief state of the industry.Higher volatility likely for companies yet to provide guidance: At this stage we are still waiting for 2019 guidance from 7 of 11 companies andreserve/resource updates from all except Goldcorp. We expect positive 2019 guidance from AUY, KG

4、C and HBM (all on production), and an accelerated production ramp at AEM (although consensus already appears to anticipate a faster ramp-up of the Nunavut assets). We have the least visibility on Barricks guidance as the company has yet to provide insight on asset outlook ever since the announcement

5、 of its merger with Randgold. NEM and GG have already provided standalone 2019 outlook and are not expected to provide an updated combined outlook until Q2/19 deal close, but we expect NEM to potentially provide additional color on the Q4/18 call.Q4 earnings matter less than other quarters, but can

6、still drive short- term price moves: Although not a key valuation driver for the gold equities(cash flow and NAV more important), we see adjusted EPS still driving share price performance on the day of reporting. We forecast beats from HBM and WPM, and a meaningful miss from KGC.Figure 1: Q4/18 EPS

7、CS estimates vs Bloomberg consensus$0.03 $0.02$0.01$-$(0.01)$(0.02)$(0.03) Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL serviceEPS revisions: We have revised 2018/19/20 EPS for all of the companies in our coverage by 1-10% largely due to model fine-tuning.TP changes: Rev

8、ise AUY TP to US$4.00 from US$3.50 and maintain Outperform rating on our positive view going into 2019 guidance and aboveaverage leverage to rising gold prices.DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATU

9、S OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: CreditSuisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report

10、 as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Gold showing strength, M&A hot topicGold rebounded in Q4/18 and continues to show strength: Gold prices increased8% from US$1,188/oz to US$1,283/oz in Q4/18, and averaged US$1,229/oz inthe quarter. These higher prices will be reflected in

11、Q4/18 earnings. To start 2019, gold prices hovered US$1,285/oz before recently spiking to levels above US$1,300/oz. There could be continued near-term gold price strength given a dovish U.S. Fed (potentially no rate hikes in 2019), USD showing signs of weakness, equity volatility, concerns around gl

12、obal economic slowdown, and elevated geopolitical risk (U.S. shutdown repeat, U.S.-China trade war, Brexit, Italian sovereign debt, etc.). We continue to (conservatively) forecast US$1,275/oz gold price for 2019.M&A remains top of mind: As we wrote in our thematic report HYPERLINK /s/V7g9Vm4AF-ZUfF

13、(“Game of Thrones: HYPERLINK /s/V7g9Vm4AF-ZUfF M&A Activity Heats Up”), the recent mega mergers of ABX/RRS and NEM/GG (Q2/19expected close) have sparked discussion of more M&A to come within a fragmented gold sector in need of scale to remain relevant (particularly to generalists). We continue to be

14、lieve that asset sales are more likely than transformational M&A, with Barrick and Newmont-Goldcorp divesting non-core assets (NEM/GG is targeting US$1.0-1.5B in divestments over the next two years). Names that have most frequently been floated in media reports (Bloomberg) for potential M&A are Agni

15、co Eagle, Newcrest, AngloGold, Kinross, IAMGold, B2Gold, and Yamana.Top picks: Our top picks remain AEM and IAG. We believe the recent IAG should continue to recover given its current depressed valuation (lowest P/NAV in ourcoverage), high torque to rising gold prices, and strong growth profile. We

16、like AEM for its strong, low-risk exploration and project pipeline (therefore not requiring M&A), underpinned by its growing Nunavut platform, as well as a proven management track record.Catalyst CalendarCompanyCatalyst CalendarUpdated 2019 Guidance (Attributable)2018YE ReserveQ4/18and Resources Pro

17、duction Q4/18 CostsOtherFigure 2: Catalyst CalendarPrecious MetalsAgnico EagleTBATBATBATBADevelopment timeline update expected for Nunavut assets.BarrickTBATBAYes- Jan. 21TBA1ABX expected to release additional details surrounding asset sales.Goldcorp2,200-2,400kozsYesYes- Jan. 14TBA1Information circ

18、ular expected for proposed NEM/GG deal.KinrossTBATBATBATBANewmont5,200kozsTBATBATBAInformation circular expected for proposed NEM/GG deal. Combined Company guidance to be released sometime inQ2/19.Mid-tiersIAMGold810-870kozsTBAYes- Jan. 16TBA1YamanaTBATBAYes- Jan. 14TBA1Royalty CompaniesFranco-Nevad

19、aTBATBATBATBACobre Panama (First Quantum Minerals) expected to ramp-up in Q2/19, formal guidance to be provided by FM during itsQ4/18 results (date to be confirmed).Wheaton Precious MetalsTBATBATBATBABase Metals ProducersHudBay (copper)TBATBATBATBATechnical report update and guidance expected for La

20、lor Gold.Lundin (copper)170-187ktTBAYesTBASource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates 1. Costs for Q4/18 were not explicitly provided but the company provided guidance on what is expected for average costs for the full year.CoverageFigure 3: Coverage Comp TableCompanyTickerEPS Q4CS est.EPSCons.CFP

21、S Q4CS est.CFPSCons.EBITDA Q4CS est.EBITDACons.Reporting DateReporting TimeCall DateCall TimeConference Call DetailsMetals & Mining EquitiesBarrick GoldGOLD.NUS$0.06US$0.06US$0.42US$0.47US$686US$76313-FebBefore Market13-Feb11:00AM ESTNA: 1-800-319-4610Intl: 416-915-3239GoldcorpGG.NUS$0.03US$0.02US$0

22、.35US$0.37US$336US$33313-FebAfter MarketN/AKinrossKGC.N(US$0.02)(US$0.00)US$0.13US$0.16US$181US$21813-FebAfter Market14-Feb8:00AM ESTNA: 1-877-201-0168Intl: 1-647-788-4901ID: 4097875LundinLUN.TOUS$0.04US$0.04US$0.18US$0.17US$136US$15114-FebAfter Market15-Feb8:00AM ESTNA: 1-877-648-7976Intl: TBDAgnic

23、o Eagle MinesAEM.NUS$0.02US$0.03US$0.59US$0.63US$173US$17614-FebAfter Market15-Feb11:00AM ESTNA: 1-888-231-8191Intl: TBDYamana GoldAUY.NUS$0.01US$0.02US$0.11US$0.14US$195US$20014-FebAfter Market15-Feb9:00AM ESTNA: 1-800-273-9672Intl: TBDHudBayHBM.TOUS$0.02US$0.00US$0.38US$0.32US$129US$11019-FebAfter

24、 Market20-Feb10:00AM EST1-800-347-6311647-794-1827IAMGoldIAG.N(US$0.02)(US$0.01)US$0.10US$0.12US$71US$7520-FebAfter Market21-Feb8:30AM ESTNA: 1-800-319-4610Intl: 1-604-638-5340Newmont MiningNEM.NUS$0.25US$0.24US$0.90US$0.90US$599US$60421-FebBefore Market21-Feb10:00AM ESTNA: 1-855-209-8210Intl: 412-3

25、17-5213Franco NevadaFNV.NUS$0.24US$0.25US$0.59US$0.62US$116US$126TBANA: 1-888-390-0546Intl: 1-416-764-8688Wheaton PreciousWPM.TOUS$0.09US$0.07US$0.22US$0.23US$123US$11820-MarAfter Market21-Mar11:00AM ESTNA: 1-855-859-2056Intl: 1-416-849-0833Passcode: 5184315Financial Estimates vs. Consensus, Call De

26、tailsFigure 4: CS EPS, CFPS, EBITDA vs. Consensus with Reporting Dates and Call DetailsCompanyTickerEPS Q4CS est.EPSCons.CFPS Q4CS est.CFPSCons.EBITDA Q4CS est.EBITDACons.Reporting DateReporting TimeCall DateCall TimeConference Call DetailsMetals & Mining EquitiesBarrick GoldGOLD.NUS$0.06US$0.06US$0

27、.42US$0.47US$686US$76313-FebBefore Market13-Feb11:00AM ESTNA: 1-800-319-4610Intl: 416-915-3239GoldcorpGG.NUS$0.03US$0.02US$0.35US$0.37US$336US$33313-FebAfter MarketN/AKinrossKGC.N(US$0.02)(US$0.00)US$0.13US$0.16US$181US$21813-FebAfter Market14-Feb8:00AM ESTNA: 1-877-201-0168Intl: 1-647-788-4901ID: 4

28、097875LundinLUN.TOUS$0.04US$0.04US$0.18US$0.17US$136US$15114-FebAfter Market15-Feb8:00AM ESTNA: 1-877-648-7976Intl: TBDAgnico Eagle MinesAEM.NUS$0.02US$0.03US$0.59US$0.63US$173US$17614-FebAfter Market15-Feb11:00AM ESTNA: 1-888-231-8191Intl: TBDYamana GoldAUY.NUS$0.01US$0.02US$0.11US$0.14US$195US$200

29、14-FebAfter Market15-Feb9:00AM ESTNA: 1-800-273-9672Intl: TBDHudBayHBM.TOUS$0.02US$0.00US$0.38US$0.32US$129US$11019-FebAfter Market20-Feb10:00AM EST1-800-347-6311647-794-1827IAMGoldIAG.N(US$0.02)(US$0.01)US$0.10US$0.12US$71US$7520-FebAfter Market21-Feb8:30AM ESTNA: 1-800-319-4610Intl: 1-604-638-5340

30、Newmont MiningNEM.NUS$0.25US$0.24US$0.90US$0.90US$599US$60421-FebBefore Market21-Feb10:00AM ESTNA: 1-855-209-8210Intl: 412-317-5213Franco NevadaFNV.NUS$0.24US$0.25US$0.59US$0.62US$116US$126TBANA: 1-888-390-0546Intl: 1-416-764-8688Wheaton PreciousWPM.TOUS$0.09US$0.07US$0.22US$0.23US$123US$11820-MarAf

31、ter Market21-Mar11:00AM ESTNA: 1-855-859-2056Intl: 1-416-849-0833Passcode: 5184315Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates. Note: GG will not be hosting a conference call for Q4/18 results.Commodity Price AssumptionsFigure 5: Credit Suisse Commodity Price AssumptionsCommodity Price Assumptions2

32、016A2017AQ118AQ218AQ318AQ418A2018AQ1/19E Q2/19E Q3/19E Q4/19E2019E2020ELTGold (US$/oz)1,2481,2561,3291,3081,2131,2281,2681,2811,2701,2651,2901,2761,3001,300Forward curveCredit Suisse vs. forward curve1,3171,3301,3401,348(3.2%)(4.5%)(5.6%)(4.3%)1,334(4.4%)1,371(5.2%)1,474(11.8%)ConsensusCredit Suisse

33、 vs. consensusSilver (US$/oz)17.11Forward curveCredit Suisse vs. forward curve17.1716.7516.5415.0114.3515.661,2751,2751,2801,2940.0%(0.4%)(1.2%)(0.3%)1,282(1.1%)1,333(4.9%)1,339(2.9%)14.8514.5614.6714.9115.9616.1816.3216.48(9.4%) (10.0%) (10.1%)(9.5%)14.7516.24(9.8%)15.1216.78(9.9%)16.0018.12(11.7%)

34、ConsensusCredit Suisse vs. consensusCopper (US$/lb)2.21Forward curveCredit Suisse vs forward curve2.8082.802.9815.5515.5016.0016.70(7.0%)(6.1%)(8.3%) (10.7%)15.90(7.9%)17.25(12.3%)18.50(13.5%)2.832.902.702.702.782.802.812.814%3%(3.8%)(3.9%)2.782.800%2.602.82(7.7%)3.002.836%ConsensusCredit

35、 Suisse vs consensusZinc (US$/lb)0.95Forward curveCredit Suisse vs forward curve1.291.541.432.792.902.992.954%(0.1%)(9.8%)(8.4%)2.96(5.5%)3.15(17.5%)3.23(7.0%)1.111.091.091.011.19(11.0%) (11.3%)(9.8%)(8.5%)1.091.21(10.2%)1.041.16(10.0%)1.041.05(0.70%)ConsensusCredit Suisse vs

36、 consensus51.26(7.6%) (11.0%) (12.6%) (13.5%)1.23(11.2%)1.22(14.7%)1.27(18.1%)6 February 20195Metals and MiningCS vs. Consensus Estimates for 2019 Production, AISC, and CapexCompanyPrecious Metals Agnico Eagle BarrickGoldcorp Kinross Newmont Mid-tiers IAMGold YamanaRoyalty CompaniesFranco

37、-NevadaWheaton Precious MetalsBase Metals ProducersHudBay LundinProduction (kozs/kt)AISC (US$/oz) / Cash Cost (US$/lb)2019 CS2019 consensusCS vs.Previous 20192019 New estimateconsensusguidance3GuidanceTotal capex (US$M)2019 CS2019 consensusCS vs.Previous 20192019 New estimateconsensusguidance3Guidan

38、ce$678$6258%$650-700Not Announce$1,366$1,420(4%)N/ANot Announce$855$902(5%)$825$865-975$1,004$91610%Not Provided Not Announce$1,243$1,03720%$730-8307$1,070$315$407(23%)Not Provided$3358$307$310(1%)Not Provided Not Announce$193N/AN/AN/ANot Announce$392N/AN/AN/ANot Announce$346$26332%Not Provided Not

39、Announce$754$68410%Not Provided$745Primary Metal2019 CS2019 consensusCS vs.Previous 20192019 New estimateconsensusguidance3GuidanceGold1,7691,770(0%)1,625-1,775 Not Announced$830$899(8%)Not Provided Not AnnouncedGold5,7355,3876%N/ANot Announced$794$7871%N/ANot AnnouncedGold2,3272,473(6%)2,7002,200-2

40、,400kozs$796$7329%$750$750-850Gold2,5122,3915%Not Provided Not Announced$911$990(8%)Not Provided Not AnnouncedGold5,3525,365(0%)4,900-5,400kozs5,200kozs$968$9383%$870-970$935Gold8498401%Not Provided810-870kozs$1,039$1,064(2%)Not Provided$1,030-1,080Gold9839682%Not Provided Not Announced$909$8329%Not

41、 Provided Not AnnouncedGold447530(16%)Not Provided Not AnnouncedN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AGold384N/A1N/AExpected toNot Announcedaverage 385kozsN/AN/AN/AN/AN/ACopper15012817%Not Provided Not Announced$123.48/US$8.6N/A4N/A4N/A4Not AnnouncedCopper173N/A2N/A169-183kt170-187ktN/A4N/A4N/A4N/A4Announced4,5Source: Com

42、pany data, Credit Suisse estimates, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL serviceFigure 6: CS vs. Consensus Estimates for 2019 Production, AISC, and CapexC- Consensus unreliable as brokers are reporting production either on a gold only, silver only or both basis.- Consensus unreliable as brokers are reporting

43、production either on a copper only and copper equivalent basis. 3 - Latest 2019 guidance provided by the Company.- HBM and LUN provide cost guidance on a mine-level basis.- Refer to Lundin company overview for full details of released guidance. 6 - Consensus includes limited estimates - unreliable.-

44、 Original NEM guidance provided without spend related to the Tanami power lease.- IAG announced on Jan. 28th that it will defer the Cote Gold project. Guidance provided on Jan. 16th includes capex related to Cote (US$20M).6 February 20196Metals and MiningCS vs. Consensus Estimates for 2018 Productio

45、n, AISC, and CapexCompanyProduction (kozs/kt)AISC (US$/oz)Capex (US$M)Primary MetalReported Q4/18 Production?2018 CSe /2018Latest 2018CSe vs ActualConsensus Guidance ConsensusQ1/18A Q2/18A Q3/18A Q4/18E2018 CSe /2018Latest 2018CSe vs ActualConsensus Guidance ConsensusQ1/18A Q2/18A Q3/18A Q4/18E2018

46、CSe /2018Latest 2018CSe vs ActualConsensus Guidance ConsensusGoldGoldGold Gold GoldGold GoldGold GoldCopper CopperTBAYes- Jan. 21Yes- Jan. 14 TBA TBAYes- Jan. 16Yes- Jan. 14TBA TBATBAYes1,6211,6081,6001%4,527 1N/A4,500-5,000N/A2,229 1N/A2,280N/A2,4782,4552,5001%5,0395,0264,900-5,2000%882 1N/A850-900

47、N/A941 1N/A920N/A453453440-4700%357N/A2355N/A 2150148122.5-147.51%173 1N/A162-174N/A3894054224051,0491,0671,1451262 1590571503565 16546085866301,2091,1621,2861,382229214208231 1200224247270 112110911410977871029239384033$880$973At or slightly-10%below mid-point of $890- 940/oz$889$921$848$863$1,058$

48、1,053$1,0800%$813$816Higher end of0%$765-815/oz range.$804$856$785$812$1,481$1,356 $1,400-1,6009%$856$865$850-1%$810$850$999$782$1,181$1,172$1,3001%$995$1,007$975-1%$846$1,018 $1,049 $1,081$1,027$1,007$1,0752%$964$976$950-990-1%$973$1,024$927$938$989$1,113 $1,200-1,3004-11%$1,055$1,064$990-1,070-1%$

49、953$1,077 $1,086 $1,110$304$291$3055%$845$868$850-8705-3%$825$837$849$866$445$433$43563%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A$824N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A$891N/AN/AN/AN/A3N/A3N/A3N/A 3N/A3N/A3N/A3N/A3$178$177$2001%41444642 1N/A3N/A3N/A3N/A 3N/A3N/A3N/A3N/A3$759$694$7509%Figure 7: CS vs. Consensus Estimat

50、es for 2018 Production, AISC, and CapexPrecious MetalsAgnico EagleBarrickGoldcorp Kinross Newmont Mid-tiers IAMGold YamanaRoyalty CompaniesFranco-NevadaWheaton Precious Metals Base Metals Producers HudBayLundinSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates, the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service- Italici

51、zed represents actual results.- Consensus unreliable as brokers are reporting production either on a gold only, silver only or both basis. 3 - HBM and LUN provide cost guidance on a mine-level basis.4 - Included in NEMs guidance is US$224M related to the Tanami power project, to be paid over a 10 ye

52、ar period beginning in 2019. Implied range is US$976-1,076M. 5 - Yamana provides guidance on a co-product basis.6 - Yamana guidance includes Gualcamayo, which was sold in 2018.Company PreviewsAmericas/Canada Precious MetalsRatingOUTPERFORMPrice (05-Feb-19, US$)43.33Target price (US$)55.0052-week pri

53、ce range (US$)47.74 - 32.59Market cap(US$ m)10,319Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM.N)Enterprise value (US$ m)11,719Target price is for 12 months.Not Expecting Any Surprises, Unless Cold Weather Impacts ProductionResearch AnalystsFahad Tariq, CPA, CA416 352 4593 HYPERLINK mailto:fahad.tariq fahad.tari

54、qMark Llanes, CPA, CA416 352 4585 HYPERLINK mailto:mark.llanes mark.llanesAEM to report Q4/18 earnings on Feb. 14th after-market, conference call to be held on Feb. 15th at 11:00AM EST (1-888-231-8191).Cold weather could weigh on production: Similar to last year, due to the below average temperature

55、s in Nunavut this winter, it is possible that Q4/18production may be weaker than expected. We currently model total company wide gold production of 405kozs in Q4/18 (vs. 422kozs in Q3/18), with63kozs coming from Meadowbank in Nunavut.Expect updated guidance: AEM is expected to provide medium-term gu

56、idance (including updated 2019 guidance) as part of the Q4 release. Thecompany previously guided to 2019 gold production of 1,625-1,775kozs we currently model 1,769kozs (in-line with consensus estimates of 1,770kozs), which is on the higher end of guidance due to our view of accelerated ramp- up at

57、the companys Nunavut assets. It is important to highlight going into Q4/18 reporting that AEM has a track record of providing conservative production guidance and then beating that guidance at the end of the year (averaging 8% production beat in the last six years).Nunavut timeline: Two major projec

58、ts in Nunavut are expected to come online in 2019 Meliadine in Q2/19 and Amaruq (initial production fromWhale Tail deposit) in Q3/19. Meliadine is expected to produce 170kozs in 2019 and Amaruq is expected to produce 135-190kozs (162.5kozs midpoint). We expect to hear more about developments at Meli

59、adine and Amaruq as part of the Q4 release and conference call. We believe Nunavut-related capex begin to taper off in Q4/18 to US$300M (Q3/18 represented peak capex of US$340M) as this is what management guided to on the Q3/18 conference call.Revise 2018 EPS to US$0.18 from US$0.21 due to commodity

60、 price MTM and sales adjustments. Commodity prices and operations are key risks.Share price performanceFinancial and valuation metricsYear12/17A12/18E12/19E12/20EEPS (CS adj.) (US$)1.020.180.901.10Prev. EPS (US$)-0.21-1.17P/E rel. (%)208.2n.m308.8282.6Revenue (US$ m)2,284.62,174.82,346.02,682.2EBITD