醫(yī)療科技與分發(fā)：盈利預(yù)覽

1、Healthcare Technology & DistributionEarnings Preview for Weeks of 1/28 and 2/4North America Equity Research25 January 2019Calendar 4Q18 earnings season kicks off next week for our Healthcare Technology &Distribution universe, with reports from AmerisourceBergen before open on Thursday, 1/31, McKesso

2、n Corporation after the close on Thursday 1/31, Premier Inc. before open on Tuesday, 2/5, Cerner after close on Tuesday, 2/5, and LabCorp and Cardinal Health before open on Thursday, 2/7. Below, we provide a brief overview of our expectations, and include additional commentary and detailed projectio

3、ns in the note.AmerisourceBergen (ABC/N, Thurs, 1/31, AM). We project F1Q19 adjusted EPS of $1.51, which is the consensus $1.52 and represents a decrease. While the does not provide explicit quarterly guidance, management noted that it expected F1Q19 adjusted EPS to be down slightly We believe it is

4、 likely that the company lowers the midpoint of the FY19 adjusted EPS guidance range, as news layoffs at PharMEDiums Memphis facility appears to point to the likelihood of a sizeable headwind. We expect the focus of the call to be on branded inflation and generic deflation trends, the potential for

5、a shift to a net pricing model, evolution of the wholesaler compensation model and the regulatory backdrop. a company-specific standpoint, we expect a focus on PharMEDium, performance in specialty, the H.D. Smith integration, trends, and plans for capital deployment. Conference call Thursday, 8:30am

6、 ET; dial- in (612) 234-9960, nopasscode.McKesson (MCK/OW, Thurs, 1/31, PM). We MCK is to deliver F3Q19 adjusted EPS in line with above expectations. Our estimate of $3.14 compares to Bloomberg consensus of $3.16 and represents an 8.0% y/y decline, with the y/y decline driven by a 6.1% decline in op

7、erating profit, with the from share more than by a higher tax rate vs. the prior period. With just two months left in the fiscal year, we expect the company to narrow the existing guidance range, and believe the midpoint of the adjusted EPS range could increase slightly (no opioid stewardship expens

8、es). We expect the focus of the call to be on the outlook for branded price inflation and generic deflation, thoughts on wholesaler compensation model and any update on opioid-related costs, thoughts on near-term contract renewals, and plans for additional capital deployment in the near term. Confer

9、ence call on Thursday, 5:00pm ET; (323) 794-2588, passcode:McKesson.Premier, Inc. (PINC/N, Tues, 2/5, AM). We are adjusting our model to reflect the change to ASC 606 accounting, and that for YoY percentages, the prior has not been restated and is therefore not comparable. We now model F2Q19Equity R

10、atings and Price TargetsHealth Care Services Distribution, Technology & PBMsLisa C. GillAC(1-212)622-6466 HYPERLINK mailto:lisa.c.gill lisa.c.gill Bloomberg JPMA GILL Michael Minchak, CFA (1-212)622-6506 HYPERLINK mailto:michael.minchak michael.minchakAnne E. Samuel(1-212) 622-4163 HYPERLINK mailto:

11、anne.e.samuel anne.e.samuelJ.P. Morgan Securities LLCCompanyTickerMkt Cap ($ mn)Price ($) Rat Curing PrevCur Price TaEnd Daterget PrevEnd DateAmerisourceBergenABC US17,260.1779.36Nn/c88.00Dec-19n/cn/cMcKesson CorporationMCK US25,047.43126.12OWn/c160.00Dec-19n/cn/cPremier, Inc.PINC US5,590.9639.75Nn/

12、c45.00Dec-19n/cn/cCernerCERN US18,321.2254.08Nn/c60.00Dec-19n/cn/cLabCorpLH US14,103.20136.00OWn/c185.00Dec-19n/cn/cCardinal HealthCAH US14,954.2248.87Nn/c59.00Dec-19n/cn/cSource: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. n/c = no change. All prices as of 23 Jan 19.See page 25 for analyst cert

13、ification and important disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report a

14、s only a single factor in making their investment decision. HYPERLINK / Lisa C. Gill(1-212) 622-6466 HYPERLINK mailto:lisa.c.gill lisa.c.gillNorth America Equity Research25 January 2019revenue of $417M, vs consensus of $417M and representing growth of 1.3% y/y. Top-line growth is primarily driven by

15、 2% growth in Supply Chain Services and Performance Services shows a 1% y/y decline. Our EPS estimate for the quarter is aligned with the Street at $0.64 (noting PINC has exceeded consensus adjusted EPS in 8 of the past 12 quarters) and represents growth of 28% y/y. We model EBITDA margin expansion

16、of 25 bps y/y, driven by margin expansion in PS (up 50 bps) offset by SCS margin contraction (down 50bps). Our full year EPS stands at $2.65, in line with guidance of $2.55-2.67 and the Street. On the call we will be looking for commentary around the hospital environment and utilization, the Washing

17、ton policy backdrop, PS demand, and uses of cash. Conference call on Tuesday, Feb 5 at 8:00AM ET; dial-in (844) 296-7719, passcode 6890785.Cerner (CERN/N, Tues, 2/5, PM). We model revenue of $1.4B, vs consensus $1.4B, at the mid-point of 4Q revenue guidance of $1.37B-$1.42B. Our estimate reflects 6.

18、7% y/y growth. We model 4Q18 new business bookings of $1.96B, a decrease of -16% y/y and within the guidance range of $1.85B-$2.05B. Our 4Q adjusted EPS estimate is $0.63, up 8.7% y/y and in line with consensus and the mid- point of 4Q EPS guidance of $0.62-$0.64. We model a 3.1% decrease in adjuste

19、d operating income to $261M for an operating margin of 18.6%, down 187 bps y/y. Management has not yet provided any guidance for 2019 which we will be awaiting on the earnings call. On the call we will be looking for color on the demand environment, competitive landscape, and bookings pipeline, with

20、 mgmt. likely to provide more details on its long-term financial plan at the analyst day on February13. Conference call on Tuesday, Feb 5 at 4:30 PM ET; dial-in (678) 509-7542, passcode: Cerner.LabCorp (LH/OW, Thurs, 2/7, AM). Our EPS estimate for the quarter is $2.49, representing growth of 7.6% y/

21、y vs. the Street at $2.52. We forecast revenue of$2.79B, in line with consensus and representing growth 1.5% For the full year, our EPS stands at $11.00, at the midpoint guidance for $10.95-11.05, with revenue at $11.3B, in line with guidance for 9.9-10.3% growth. Looking ahead 2019, we management t

22、o provide guidance on the call and we estimate revenue of $11.45B, reflecting 1% YoY growth, and EPS of $11.10, up 1% YoY, in line with stated management expectations for modest EPS growth. We will commentary on the conference call around underlying organic growth, and any color on the recent headwi

23、nds, pricing and trends, thoughts around the landscape, and collaborative growth opportunities. Conference call Thursday, 9:00AM ET; dial-in (844) 634-1444, passcode1669755.Cardinal Health (CAH/N, Thurs, 2/7, AM).We project F2Q19 adjusted EPS of$1.06, which compares to Bloomberg consensus of $1.10 a

24、nd represents a 30% y/y decline. Cardinal has a strong track record for quarterly earnings beats, and we believe the company has set a relatively low bar in F2Q (management guided to operating profit flat sequentially, despite historically delivering a sequential improvement). We believe the company

25、 is likely to narrow the current adjusted EPS guidance range (given increased visibility around branded inflation), and believe the midpoint can increase slightly (current guidance includes a minor headwind from opioid assessment expenses). We expect the focus of the call to be on branded inflation

26、and generic deflation trends, the potential for manufacturers to shift to a net pricing model, the evolution of the wholesaler compensation model and the regulatory backdrop. From a company-specific standpoint, we expect a focus on the Cordis business, exam gloves, customer renewals, opioid costs, t

27、he cost savings initiative and capital deployment. Conference call on Thursday, 8:30am ET.2Table 1: Healthcare Technology & Distribution Earnings Weeks of January 28 and February 4$ in millions, except EPSMcKessonPremier, IncCernerLabCorpCardinal HealthABCMCKPINCCERNLHCAHQuarter1Q193Q192Q194Q184Q182

28、Q19Report DateThu, Jan 31Thu, Jan 31Tue, Feb 05Tue, Feb 05Thu, Feb 07Thu, Feb 07Before/After MarketBefore OpenAfter CloseBefore OpenAfter CloseBefore OpenBefore OpenConference CallThu, 8:30 AM ETThu, 5:00 PM ETTue, 8:00 AM ETTue, 4:30 PM ETThu, 9:00 AM ETThu, 8:30 AM ETDial-In(612) 234-9960323-794-2

29、588844.296.7719(678) 509-7542844-634-1444PasscodeNo PasscodeMcKesson6890785Cerner1669755EPS EstimatesJPM$1.51$3.14$0.64$0.63$2.49$1.06Consensus$1.52$3.16$0.64$0.63$2.52$1.10Difference-0.7%-0.6%-0.2%-1.2%-3.6%Revenue EstimatesJPM$44,113$55,498$417$1,401$2,786$35,604Consensus$43,824$55,071$417$1,393$2

30、,790$36,087Difference+0.7%+0.8%-0.0%+0.6%-0.1%-1.3%Full-Year GuidanceEPS Guidance$6.65-$6.95$13.20-$13.80$2.55-$2.67$2.45-2.47$10.95-11.05$4.90-$5.15JPM$6.72$13.44$2.65$2.46$11.00$5.00Consensus$6.79$13.47$2.65$2.46$11.02$5.02Difference-1.0%-0.2%0.2%-0.4%EPS Surprise History (actual vs. consensus)C 3

31、Q18+0.5%+9.7%-13.6%-4.8%+19.6%C 2Q18+5.8%+1.4%+6.5%+2.8%+1.7%+8.3%C 1Q18+6.7%-1.9%+2.1%-0.2%+5.8%-8.1%C 4Q17+14.6%+15.5%+5.3%-5.1%+3.1%+30.8%Source: Company reports, Bloomberg consensus and J.P. Morgan estimatesNeutralAmerisourceBergenAmerisourceBergen (ABC;ABC US)CompanyDataFYESep2016A2017A2018A201

32、9E2020EPrice($)79.36EPS ($)DateOfPrice23 Jan19Q1(Dec)1.271.361.551.51-52-weekRange($)106.27-69.36Q2 (Mar)1.681.771.942.01-Market Cap($mn)17,260.17Q3(Jun)1.371.431.541.66-FiscalYearEndSepQ4(Sep)1.301.331.451.54-SharesO/S (mn)217FY5.625.886.496.727.21PriceTarget($)88.00Bloomberg EPSFY($)5.555.886.496.

33、797.44Price TargetEndDate31-Dec-19Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. Bloomberg above denotes Bloomberg consensus estimates.AmerisourceBergen (ABC/Neutral) F1Q19 results: Earnings releaseThursday, January 31 before market open. Conference call at 8:30am, ET; (612) 234-9960; Nopas

34、scode.We project F1Q19 adjusted EPS of $1.51 which is below the Bloomberg consensus of $1.52 and represents a 2.6% y/y decrease. We point to a strong track record for delivering results ahead of expectations (adjusted EPS has come in above Bloomberg consensus in each of the past 12 quarters). We for

35、ecast F1Q19 y/y revenue growth of 9.0%, which should be driven by organic growth, growth in the specialty business, contribution from the H.D. Smith acquisition, and incremental contribution from the transitioned Rite Aid stores. We overall adjusted EBIT margin to decline 16 bps as we point to headw

36、inds in the PharMEDium and Lash businesses. As ABC will be the first Rx channel company to report C4Q results, expect a focus on branded price inflation and generic deflation trends, the potential for manufacturers to shift to a net pricing model, the broader evolution of the wholesaler compensation

37、 model and the regulatory backdrop (including potential changes around Medicare Part B). From a company-specific standpoint, we also expect a focus on PharMEDium, performance in specialty, the H.D. Smith integration, any update opioid costs, opex trends, and additional plans for capitaldeployment.Ta

38、ble 2: AmerisourceBergen F1Q19 JPM Estimates versus Consensus$ in millions, except per share amountsJPM F1Q estimateY/y changeBloomberg ConsensusTotal Revenue$44,1139.0%$43,824Gross Profit$1,1917.0%Gross Margin2.70%(5)Total EBITDA$537-3.1%$538Operating Profit$462-5.2%Operating Margin1.05%(16)Interes

39、t Expense$4832.7%Tax Rate21.5%(273) bpsDiluted Sharecount216-2.2%Adjusted EPS$1.51-2.6%$1.52Source: Company reports, J.P. Morgan estimates. Consensus estimates from Bloomberg.Segment Performance: In the Pharma Distribution segment, we expectrevenues to increase 9.0% y/y (growth in existing customers

40、, specialty and incremental contribution from H.D. Smith and transitioned Rite Aid stores), with operating profit down -7.9% y/y as we project operating margin to decline by 16 bps y/y (driven in part by a tough comp in the PharMEDium business). In the Other segment (which includes MWI, World Courie

41、r and AmerisourceBergen Consulting Services), we project revenue to grow 8.0%, operating profittoincrease 4.8% y/y, with operating margin down 19 bps y/y due in part to continued headwinds in the Lash business.Table 3: AmerisourceBergen F1Q19 Segment-Level Projections$ in millionsABDCY/y changeOther

42、Y/y changeRevenues$42,4559.0%$1,6848.0%Operating Profit$357-7.9%$1054.8%Operating Margin0.84%(16)6.2%(19)Source: Company reports, J.P. Morgan estimates.JPM Est. vs. Consensus. Our revenue estimate is slightly above Bloomberg consensus, while our EBITDA estimate is essentially in line with consensus,

43、 and our adjusted EPS estimate of $1.51 is just below Bloomberg consensus of $1.52. While the company does not provide explicit quarterly guidance, management did note that F1Q19 adjusted EPS was expected to be down slightly y/y, as the company lapped a strong PharMEDium quarter in the year-agoperio

44、d.Results vs. Expectations. We point to a strong track record for quarterly earnings beats, as ABC has exceeded consensus adjusted in each of the past 12 quarters. Over those past 12 quarters, the company has delivered quarterly EPS, average, approximately 6% above consensus, although we note that s

45、everal of the larger beats in recent quarters were driven by below the line items, including a lower taxrate.Guidance: We believe it is likely that the company lowers the midpoint of the FY19 adjusted EPS guidance range. Recall that the company had guided to FY19 adjusted EPS of $6.65 to $6.95, refl

46、ecting y/y growth of 2% to 7% (our current estimate of $6.72 is below Bloomberg consensus of $6.79). Management had noted that the guidance incorporated a range of scenarios around PharMEDium (driving the expectation for Pharma Distribution adjusted operating profit togrow in the low-single- to mid-

47、single-digit range). However, in our view, recent news of layoffs at PharMEDiums Memphis facility appears to point to the likelihood of a sizeable headwind. That said, we look for any update around the core pharma distribution business (management had previously indicated that it expected operating

48、income growth solidly in the mid-single digits excluding PharMEDium headwinds. Note that ABC had not factored in any incremental headwind into guidance going forward from the New York opioidassessment.Historical Stock Performance: Of the past 12 earnings releases, ABC shares have traded up on the da

49、y of the earnings release 5 times and down on 7. Shares traded down 5.2% on the F4Q earnings release, down 0.6% on the F3Q earnings release, up 3.3% the F2Q earnings release, and down on each of the prior 3 earnings releases. Shares are typically volatile on earnings, with share price moves in exces

50、s of 4% on 9 of the past 12 earningsreleases.What to look for on the call: 1) any changes to the assumptions underlying the FY19 guidance, and factors that could drive FY19 adjusted EPS to the upper or lower end of the guidance range; 2) any update on PharMEDium and the resumption of production at t

51、he Memphis facility; 3) the outlook for branded inflation and generic deflation; 4) thoughts on the regulatory backdrop and potential impact from proposed legislation; 5) views on the potential shift to net pricing and the evolution of the compensation model (including adjustments to manufacturer fe

52、e for service rates and the initiative to implement differential pricing across various product types); 6) underlying volume trends in the U.S. pharma market; 7) performance of the AmerisourceBergen Specialty Group and potential impact from biosimilars; 9) progress around theWBArelationship and any

53、incremental benefit from sourcing; 10) the integration of H.D.Smith, synergy opportunities and accretion potential; 11) color on the performance of the MWI animal health business; 12) plans for capital deployment in the near term.Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks AmerisourceBergen (Neutral; Pri

54、ce Target: $88.00) Investment ThesisOur rating on AmerisourceBergen is Neutral. We continue to point to a positivelonger-term fundamental outlook for the drug distribution industry, driven by an aging population and increased utilization of prescription drugs. We believe the core pharma distribution

55、 business is stabilizing, with several of the headwinds that have driven tough y/y comps now behind. ABC should see an incremental benefit from growth at key customers (such as Walgreens) and accretion from the H.D. Smith acquisition. Further, as the largest distributor of specialty drugs to communi

56、ty-based oncologists, we believe the company could potentially see an incremental benefit from biosimilar launches over the longer term. We also point to the potential for accretive uses of cash flow. However, longer than expected remediation efforts at PharMEDium and a higher level of generic defla

57、tion represent potential risks.ValuationABC shares trade at 11.3x our CY19 adjusted EPS estimate of $6.82. Our December 2019 price target $88 is based on a 12.0 x multiple on our new CY20 adjusted EPS estimate of $7.36. This target multiple is below the historical average forward P/E multiple for th

58、e pharma distributors of 14.5x over the past 10 years and represents a discount to the market multiple as we point to incremental uncertainty around the ramp of the PharMEDium business, the regulatory backdrop and manufacturer price increases.Risks to Rating and PriceTargetSeveral factors could caus

59、e the stock to outperform or underperform our expectations. These risks include higher or lower anticipated drug price inflation, generic deflation, timing and dynamics of generic launches, competitive pricing pressure, potential contract wins or losses, a change in the interest rate environment, si

60、gnificant downward revision to the growth rate of the pharmaceutical industry, the timing of the ramp in production at PharMEDium, and changes in the healthcare regulatoryenvironment.OverweightCompanyDataMcKesson CorporationMcKesson Corporation (MCK;MCK US)FYE Mar2016A2017A2018A2019E2020EPrice ($)12