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2017年普通高等學校招生全國統(tǒng)一考試(江蘇卷)英語注意事項:1.答題前,先將自己的姓名、準考證號填寫在試題卷和答題卡上,并將準考證號條形碼粘貼在答題卡上的指定位置。用2B鉛筆將答題卡上試卷類型A后的方框涂黑。2.選擇題的作答:每小題選出答案后,用2B鉛筆把答題卡上對應題目的答案標號涂黑,寫在試題卷、草稿紙和答題卡上的非答題區(qū)域均無效。3.非選擇題的作答:用簽字筆直接答在答題卡上對應的答題區(qū)域內(nèi)。寫在試題卷、草稿紙和答題卡上的非答題區(qū)域均無效。4.考試結(jié)束后,請將本試題卷和答題卡一并上交。第Ⅰ卷第一部分聽力(共兩節(jié),滿分20分)做題時,現(xiàn)將答案標在試卷上,錄音內(nèi)容結(jié)束后,你將有兩分鐘的時間將試卷上的答案轉(zhuǎn)涂到答題卡上。第一節(jié)(共5小題;每小題1分,滿分5分)聽下面5段對話,每段對話后有一個小題。從題中所給的A、B、C三個選項中選出最佳選項,并標在試卷的相應位置。聽完每段對話后,你都有10秒鐘的時學#科*網(wǎng)間來回答有關(guān)小題和閱讀下一小題。每段對話僅讀一遍。1.Whatdoesthewomanthinkofthemovie?A.It'samusing B.It'sexciting C.It'sdisappointing2.HowwillSusanspendmostofhertimeinFrance?A.Travelingaround.B.Studyingataschool.C.Lookingstterheraunt.3.Whatarethespeakerstalkingzbout?A.Goingout.B.Orderingdrinks.C.Preparingforaparty.4.Wherearethespeakers?A.Inaclassroom. B.Inalibrary. C.Inabookstore.5.Whatisthemangoingtodo?A.GoonInternet B.Makeaphonecall. C.Takeatraintrip.第二節(jié)(共15小題;每小題1分,滿分15分)聽下面5段對話或獨白。每段對話或獨白后有幾個小題,從題中所給的A、B、C三個選項中選出最佳選項。聽每段對話或獨白前,你將有時間閱讀各個小題,每小題秒鐘;聽完后,各小題將給出5秒鐘的作答時間。每段對話或獨白讀兩遍。聽第6段材料,回答第6、7題。6.Whatisthewomanlookingfor?A.Aninformationoffice. B.Apolicestation C.Ashoerepairshop.7.WhatistheTownGuideaccordingtotheman?A.Abrochure. B.Anewspaper. C.Amap.聽第7段材料,回答第8、9題。8.Whatdoesthemansayabouttherestaurant?A.It'sthebiggestonearound.B.Itoffersmanytastydishes.C.It'sfamounsforitsseafood.9.Whatwillthewomanprobablyorder?A.Friedfish B.Roastchicken. C.Beefsteak.聽第8段材料,回答第10至12題。10.WherewillMr.Whitebeat11o'clock?A.Attheoffice B.Attheairport. C.Attherestaurant.11.WherewillMr.Whiteprobablydoatoneintheafternoon?A.Receliveaguest.B.Haveameeting.C.Readareport.12.WherewillMissWilsonseeMr.White?A.Atlunchtime.B.Lateintheafternoon.C.Thenextmorning.聽第9段材料,回答第13至16題。13.WhyisBiligoingtoGermany?A.Toworkonaproject.B.TostudyGerman.C.Tostartanewcompany.14.WhatdidthewomandislikeaboutGermany?A.Theweather.B.Thefood.C.Theschools.15.WhatdoesBillhopetodoabouthisfamily?A.BringthemtoGermany.B.LeavetheminEngland.C.Visittheminafewmonths.16.Whatistheprobablerelationshipbetweenthespeakers?A.Fellow-travelers.B.Colleagues.C.Classmates.聽第10段材料,回答第17至20題。17.WhendiditrainlasttimeinJuarez?A.Threedaysago.B.Amonthago.C.Ayearago.18.Whatseasonisitnowinjuarez?A.Spring.B.SummerC.Autumn.19.Whataretheelderlyadvisedtodo?A.Takeawalkinafternoon.B.Keeptheirhomescool.C.Drinkplentyofwater.20.Whatisthespeakerdoing?A.Hostingaradioprogram.B.Conductingaseminar.C.Forecastingtheweather.第二部分:英語知識運用(共兩節(jié),滿分35分)第一節(jié):單項填空(共15小題;每小題1分,滿分15分)請閱讀下面各題,從題中所給的A、B、C、D四個選項中,選出最佳選項,并在答題卡上將該項涂黑。例:Itisgenerallyconsideredunwisetogiveachild_________heorshewants.A.however B.whatever C.whichever D.whenever答案是B。例:Itisgenerallyconsideredunwisetogiveachild_________heorshewants.A.however B.whatever C.whichever D.whenever答案是B。21.ManyChinesebrands,__________theirreputationsovercenturies,arefacingnewchallengesfromthemodernmarket.A.havingdevelopedB.beingdevelopedC.developedD.developing22.__________notforthesupportoftheteachers,thestudentcouldnotovercomeherdifficulty.A.ItwereB.WereitC.ItwasD.Wasit23.Located_________theBeltmeetstheRoad,JiangsuwillcontributemoretotheBeltandRoadconstruction.A.whyB.whenC.whichD.where24.ThepublicationofGreatExpectations,which_________bothwidelyreviewedandhighlypraised,strengthenedDickens,statusasaleadingnovelist.A.isB.areC.wasD.were25.WorkingwiththemedicalteaminAfricahas_________thebestinherasadoctor.A.heldoutB.broughtoutC.pickedoutD.givenout26.Wechoosethishotelbecausethepriceforanighthereisdownto$20,halfof_________itusedtocharge.A.thatB.whichC.whatD.how27.Hehurriedhome,neveroncelookingbacktoseeifhe_________.A.wasbeingfollowedB.wasfollowingC.hadbeenfollowedD.followed28.In1963theUNsetuptheWorldFoodProgramme,oneof_____purposesistorelieveworldwidestarvation.A.whichB.it’sC.whoseD.whom29.OnlyfiveyearsafterSteveJobs’death,smart–phonesdefeated_________PCsinsales.A.controversialB.contractoryC.confidentialD.conventional30.Aquickreviewofsuccessesandfailuresattheendofyearwillhelp_________youryearahead.A.shapeB.switchC.stretchD.sharpen31.He’sbeeninformedthathe_________forthescholarshipbecauseofhisacademicbackground.A.hasn’tqualifiedB.hadn’tqualifiedC.doesn’tqualifyD.wasn’tqualifying32.Determiningwhereweare_________oursurroundingsremainsanessentialskillforoursurvival.A.incontrasttoB.indefenseofC.infaceofD.inrelationto33.——WhatdoesthestuffonyourT-shirtmean?——it’snothing.Justsomething_________.A.asclearasdayB.offthetopofmyheadC.undermynoseD.beyondmywildestdreams34.Thedisappearanceofdinosaursisnotnecessarilycausedbyastronomicalincidents.But_________explanationsarehardtofind.A.alternativeB.aggressiveC.ambiguousD.apparent35.——GoingtowatchtheWomen’sVolleyballMatchonWednesday?——!Willyougowithme?A.YouthereB.YoubetC.YougotmeD.Youknowbetter第二節(jié):完形填空(共20小題;每小題1分,滿分20分)請閱讀下面短文,從短文后各題所給的A、B、C、D四個選項中,選出最佳選項,并在答題卡上將該項涂黑。ForalongtimeGabrieldidn’twanttobeinvolvedinmusicatall.Inhisfirstyearsofhighschool,Gabrielwouldlookpityinglyatmusicstudents,36acrossthecampuswiththeirheavyinstrumentcases.37atschoolforpracticehours38anyoneelsehadtobethere.Hesworetohimselfto39music,ashehatedgettingtoschoolextraearly.__40___,oneday,inthemusicclassthatwas__41_ofhisschool’sstandardcurriculurn,hewasplayingidly(隨意地)onthepianoandfoundit____42___topickouttunes.Withasinkingfeeling,herealizedthatheactually__43__doingit.Hetriedtihidehis__44__pleasurefromthemusicteather,whohad__45__overtolisten.Hemightnothavethisparticularlywell,__46__theteachertoldGabrielthathehadagood___47__andsuggestedthatGabrielgointothemusinstore-roomtiseeifanyoftheinstrumentsthere__48__him.Therehedecidedtogivethecello(大提琴)a__49__.Whenhebeganpracticing,hetookitvery__50__.Buthequicklyfoundthathelovedplayingthisinstrurnent,andwas__51__topracticingitsothatwithinacoupleofmonthshewasplayingreasonablywell.This__52__,ofcourse,thathearrivedatschoolearlyinthemorning,__53__hisheavyinstrumentcaseacrossthecampustothe__54__looksofthenon-musicianshehadleft__55__.36.A.travellingB.marchingC.pacingD.struggling37.A.risingupB.comingupC.drivingupD.turningup38.A.beforeB.afterC.untilD.since39.A.betrayB.acceptC.avoidD.appreciate40.A.ThereforeB.HoweverC.ThusD.Moreover41.A.partB.natureC.basisD.apirit42.A.complicateB.safeC.confusingD.easy43.A.missedB.dislikedC.enioyedD.denied44.A.transparentB.obviousC.falseD.similar45.A.runB.joggedC.jumpedD.wandered46.A.becauseB.butC.thoughD.so47.A.earB.tasteC.heartD.voice48.A.occurredB.tooktoC.appealedD.heldto49.A.changeB.chanceC.missionD.function50.A.seriously B.proudly C.casually D.admitted51.A.committed B.used C.limited D.admitted52.A.proved B.showed C.stressed D.meant53.A.pushing B.dragging C.lifting D.rushing54.A.admiring B.pitying C.annoying D.teasing55.A.over B.aside C.behind D.out第三部分:閱讀理解(共15小題;每小題2分,滿分30分)請閱讀下列短文,從短文后各題所給的A、B、C、D四個選項中,選出最佳選項,并在答題卡上將該項涂黑。ACHRONOLOGICA——TheUnbelievableYearsthatDefinedHistoryDIDYOUKNOW…In105ADpaperwasinventedinChina?WhenColumbusdiscoveredtheNewWorld?TheBritishMuseumopenedin1759?CHRONOLOGICAisafascinatingjourneythroughtime,fromthefoundationofRometothecreationoftheinternet.Alongthewayaretalesofkingsandqueens,hotairballoons…andmonkeysinspace.Travelthrough100ofthemostunbelievableyearsinworldhistoryandledrnwhybeingaRomanEmperorwasn’talwaysasgoodasitsounds,howtheHundredYears’Wardidn’tactuallylastfor100yearsandwhySpencerPercevalholdsaratherunfortunaterecord.CHRONOLOGICAisaninformativeandentertainingtourintohistory,beautifullyillustratedandfullofunbelievablefacts.WhileCHRONOLOGICAtellsthestoriesoffamouspeopleinhistorysuchasThomasEdisonandAlexandertheGreat,thisbookalsogivesabaccountofthelivesoflesser-knownindividualsincludingtheexploeerMungoParkandsculptorGutzonBorglum.Thiscompletebutbriefhistoricalcollectioniscertaintoentertainreadersyoungandold,andguaranteedtopresenteventhebiggesthistoryloverwithsomgthingnew!56.What
is
CHRONOLOGICA
according
to
the
next?
A.A
biography.
B.A
travel
guide.
C.A
history
book.
D.A
science
fiction.
57.How
does
the
writer
recommend
CHRONOLOGICA
to
readers?
A.By
giving
details
of
its
collection.
B.By
introducing
some
of
its
contents.
C.By
telling
stories
at
the
beginning.
D.By
comparing
it
with
other
books.BBeforebirth,babiescantellthedifferencebetweenloudsoundsandvoices.Theycanevendistinguishtheirmother’svoicefromthatofafemalestranger.Butwhenitcomestoembryoniclearning(胎教),birdscouldruletheroost.AsrecentlyreportedinTheAuk:OrnithologicalAdrances,somemotherbirdsmayteachtheiryoungtosingevenbeforetheyhatch(孵化)。New-bornchickscanthenimitatetheirmom’scallwithinafewdaysofeneringtheworld.Thiseducationalmethodwasfirstobservedin2012bySoniaKieindorfer,abiologistatFlindersUniversityinSouthAustralia,andhercollcagues.FemakeAustraliansuperbfairywrenswerefoundtorepeatonesoundoverandoveragainwhilehatchingtheirerrs,Whentheerrswerehatched,thebabybirdsmadethesimilarchirptotheirmothers—asoundthatservedastheirregular“feedme!”call.Tofindoutifthespecialqualitywasmorewidespreadinbirds,theresearcherssoughtthered-backedfairywren,anotherspeciesofAustraliansongbird.Firsttheycollectedsounddatdfrom67nestsinfoursitesinQueenslangbeforeandafterhatching,Thentheyidentifiedbeggingcallsbyanalyzingtheorderandnumberofnotes.Acomputeranalysisblindlycomparedcallsproducedbymothersandchicks,rankingthembysimilarity.Itturnsoutthatbabyred-backedfairywrensalsoemergechirpingliketheirmoms.Andthemorefrequentlymothershadcalledtotheirerrs,themoresimilarwerethebabies’beggingcalls.Inaddition,theteamsetupaseparateexperimentthatsuggestedthatthebabybirdsthatmostcloselyimitatedtheirmom’svoicewererewardedwiththemostfood.Thisobservationhintsthateffectiveembryoniclearningcouldsignalneurological(神經(jīng)系統(tǒng)的)strengthsofchildrentoparents.Anevolutionaryinferencecanthenbedrawn.”Asaparent,doyouinvestinqualitychildren,ordoyouinvestinchildrenthatareinneed?”Kleindorferasks.”O(jiān)urresultssuggestthattheymightbegoingforquality.”58.TheunderlinedphraseinParagraph1means“”.A.betheworstB.bethebestC.betheasbadD.bejustasgood59.WhatareKleindorfer’sfindingsbasedon?A.Similaritiesbetweenthecallsmomsandchicks.B.TheobservationoffairywrensacrossAustralia.C.ThedatacollectedfromQueensland’slocals.D.Controlledexperimentsonwrensandotherbirds.60.Embryoniclearninghelpsmotherbirdstoidentifythebabybirdswhich.A.canreceivequalitysignalsB.areinneedoftrainingC.fittheenvironmentbetterD.maketheloudestcallCAnewcommoditybringsaboutahighlyprofitable,fast-growingindustry,urgingantitrust(反壟斷)regulatorstostepintocheckthosewhocontrolitsflow.Acenturyago,theresourceinquestionwasoil.Nowsimilarconcernsaresbeingraisedbythegiants(巨頭)thatdealindata,theoilofthedigitalage.ThemostvaluablefirmsareGoogle,Amazon,FacebookandMicrosoft.Alllookunstoppable.Suchsituationshaveledtocallsforthetechgiantstobebrokenup.Butsizealoneisnotacrime,Thegiants'successhasbenefitedconsumers.Fewwanttolivewithoutsearchenginesoraquickdelivery,Farfromchargingconsumershighprices,manyoftheseservicesarefree(userspay,ineffect,byhandingoveryetmoredata).Andtheappearanceofnew-borngiantssuggeststhatnewcomerscanmakewaves,too. Butthereiscauseforconcern.Theinternethasmadedataabundant,all-presentandfarmorevaluable,changingthenatureofdataandcompetition.Googleinitiallyusedthedatacollectedfromuserstotargetadvertisingbetter.Butrecentlyithasdiscoveredthatdatacanbeturnedintonewservices:translationandvisualrecognition,tobesoldtoothercompanies.Internetcompanies’controlofdatagivesthemenormouspower.Sotheyhavea“God’seyeview”ofactivitiesintheirownmarketsandbeyond.Thisnatureofdatamakestheantitrustmeasuresofthepastlessuseful.BreakingupfirmslikeGoogleintofivesmalloneswouldnotstopremakingthemselves:intime,oneofthemwouldbecomegreatagain.Arethinkisrequired—andasanewapproachstartstobecomeapparent,twoideasstandout.Thefirstisthatantitrustauthoritiesneedtomoveformtheindustrialageintothe21stcentury.Whenconsideringamerger(兼并),forexample,theyhavetraditionallyusedsizetodeterminewhentostepin.Theynowneedtotakeintoaccounttheextentoffirms'dataassets(資產(chǎn))whenassessingtheimpactofdeals.Thepurchasepricecouldalsobeasignalthatanestablishedcompanyisbuyinganew-bormthreat.Whenthistakesplace,especiallywhenanew-borncompanyhasnorevenuetospeakof,theregulatorsshouldraiseredflags. The
second
principle
is
to
loosen
the
control
that
providers
of
on-line
services
have
over
data
and
give
more
to
those
who
supply
them.Companies
could
be
forced
to
consumers
what
information
they
hold
and
how
many
money
they
make
form
it.Govemments
could
order
the
sharing
of
certain
kinds
of
data,with
users'
consent. Restarting
antitrust
for
the
information
age
will
not
be
easy
But
if
govemments
don't
wants
a
data
oconomy
by
a
few
giants,they
must
act
soon.
61.Whyisthereacalltobreakupgiants?A.TheyhavecontrolledthedatamarketB.TheycollectenormousprivatedataC.TheynolongerprovidefreeservicesD.Theydismissedsomenew-borngiants62.WhatdoesthetechnologicalinnovationinParagraph3indicate?A.Datagiants’technologyisveryexpensiveB.Google’sideaispopularamongdatafirmsC.Datacanstrengthengiants’controllingpositionD.Datacanbeturnedintonewservicesorproducts63.Bypayingattentiontofirms’dataassets,antitrustregulatorscould.A.killanewthreatB.avoidthesizetrapC.favourbiggerfirmsD.chargehigherprices64.Whatisthepurposeoflooseningthegiants’controlofdata?A.Bigcompaniescouldrelievedatasecuritypressure.B.Governmentscouldrelievetheirfinancialpressure.C.Consumerscouldbetterprotecttheirprivacy.D.Smallcompaniescouldgetmoreopportunities.DOldProblem,NewApproaches Whilecleanenergyisincreasinglyusedinourdailylife,globalwarningwillcontinueforsomedecadesafterCO2emissions(排放)peak.Soevenifemissionweretobegindecreasetoday,wewouldstillfacethechallengeofadaptingtoclimate.HereIwillstresssomesmarterandmorecreativeexamplesofclimateadaptation. Whenitcomestoadaptation,itisimportanttounderstandthatclimatechangeisaprocess.Wearethereforenottalkingaboutadaptingtoanewstandard,buttoaconstantlyshiftingsetofconditions.Thisiswhyinpartatleast,theUSNationalClimateAssessmentsaysthat:”thereisno‘one-sizefitall’adaptation.”Nevertheless,therearesomeactionsthatoffermuchandcarrylittleriskorcost. Aroundtheworldpeopleareadaptinginsurprisingways,especiallyinsomepoorcountries,F(xiàn)loodshavesomemoredamaginginBangladeshinrecentdecades.MohammedRezwansawopportunitywhereotherssawonlydisaster.Hisnot-for-profitorganizationruns100riverboatsthatserverasfloatinglibraries,scbools,andhealthclinics,andareequipmentwithsolarpanelsandothercommunicationfacilities.Rezwaniscreatingfloatingconnecticity(連體)toreplacefloodedroadsandhighways.Butheisalsoworkingatafarmorefundamentallevel:hisstaffpeoplehowtomakefloatinggardensfishpondspreventatarcationduringthewetseason.Aroundtheworld,peopleareadaptinginsurprisingways,especiallyinsomepoorcountries,FllodshavebecomemoredamaginginBangladeshinrecentdecades.MobammedRezwansawopportunilywhereotherssawonlydisaster.Hisnot-for-profitorganizationruns100riverboatsthatserveasfloatinglibraries,schoods,andhealthclinics,andareequippedwithsolarpanelsandothercommunicatingfacilities.Rezwaniscreatingfloatingconmetivity(連接)toreplacefloodedroadsandhighways.Butheisalsoworkingatafarmorefundamentallevel:hisstaffshowpeoplehowtomakefloatinggardensandfishpondstopreventstarvationduringthewetseason.ElsewhereinAsiaevenmoreastonishingactionsarebeingtaken.Chewang.NophellivesinamountaionousregioninIndia,whereheisknownastheIceMan.Thelossofglaciers(冰川)thereduetoglobalwarmingrepresentsanenormousthreattoagriculture.Withouttheglaciers,waterwillarriveintheriversattimeswhenitcandamagecrops.Norphel’sinspirationcomefromseeingthewasteofwateroverwinter,whenitwasnotneeded.Hedirectedthewastedwaterintoshallowbasinswhereitfroze,andwasstoreduntilthespring.Hisfieldsoficesupplyperfectlytimedirrigation(灌溉)water.Havingcreatedninesuchicereserves.Nophelcalculatesthathehasstoredabout200,000m3ofwater.Climatechangeisacontinuingprocess,soNorhel’sicereserveswillnotlastforever.Warmingwillovertakethem.Butheisprovidingafewyearsduringwhichthefarmerswill,perhaps,beabletofindothermeansofadapting.IncreasingEarth’sreflectivenesscancooltheplanet.InsouthernSpainthesuddenincreaseofgreenhouses(whichreflectlightbacktospace)haschangedthewarmingtrendlocally,andactuallycooledtheregion.WhileSpainasawholeisheatingupquickly,temperaturesnearthegreenhouseshavedecreased.Thisexampleshouldactasaninspirationforallcities.Bypaintingbuildingswhite,citiesmayslowdownthewarmingprocess.InPeni,localfarmersaroundamountainwithaglacierthathasalreadyfallenvictimtoclimatechangehavebegunpaintingtheentiremountainpeakwhiteinthehopethattheaddedreflectivenesswillrestorethelife-givingice.Theoutcomeisstillfarfromclear,ButtheWorldBankhasincludedtheprojectonitsof‘100ideastosavetheplanet”.Moreordinaryformsofadaptationarehappeningeverywhere.AfriendofmineownsanareaoflandinwesternVictoria.Overfivegenerationsthelandhasbeentoowetforcropping.Butduringthepastdecadedecliningrainfallhasallowshimtoplanthighlyprofitablecrops.Farmersinmanycountriesarealsoadaptinglikethis—eitherbygrowingnewproduce,orbygrowingthesamethingsdifferently.Thisiscommonsense,Butsomesuggestionsforadaptingarenot.Whenthepollutingindustriesarguethatwe’velostthebattletocontrolcarbonpollutionandhavenochoicebuttoadapt,it’sanonsensedesignedtomakethecaseforbusinessasusual.Humanbeingswillcontinuetoadapttothechangingclimateinbothordinaryandastonishingways.Butthemostsensibleformofadaptationissurelytoadaptourenergysystemstoemitlesscarbonpollution.Afterall,ifweadaptintheway,wemayavoidtheneedtochangeinsomanyothers.65.TheunderlinedpartinParagraph2implies.A.adaptationisanever-changingprocessB.thecostofadaptationvarieswithtimeC.globalwarmingaffectsadaptationformsD.adaptationtoclimatechangeischallenging66.WhatisspecialwithregardtoRezwan’sproject?A.Theprojectreceivesgovernmentsupport.B.Differentorganizationsworkwitheachother.C.Hisorganizationmakesthebestofabadsituation.D.Theprojectconnectsfloodedroadsandhighways.67.WhatdidtheIceMandotoreducetheeffectofglobalwarming?A.Storingiceforfutureuse.B.Protectingtheglaciersfrommelting.C.Changingtheirrigationtime.D.Postponingthemeltingoftheglaciers.68.WhatdowelearnfromthePeruexample?A.Whitepaintisusuallysafeforbuildings.B.Theglobalwarmingtreadcannotbestopped.C.Thiscountryisheatinguptooquickly.D.Sunlightreflectionmayrelieveglobalwarming.69.Accordingtotheauthor,pollutingindustriesshould.A.adapttocarbonpollutionB.planthighlyprofitablecropsC.leavecarbonemissionaloneD.fightagainstcarbonpollution70.What’stheauthor’spreferredsolutiontoglobalwarming?A.settingupanewstandard.B.Readucingcarbonemission.C.Adaptingtoclimatechange.D.Monitoringpollutingindustries.第四部分:任務(wù)型閱讀(共10小題;每小題1分,滿分10分)請閱讀下面短文,并根據(jù)所讀內(nèi)容在文章后表格中的空格里填入一個最恰當?shù)膯卧~。注意:請將答案寫在答題卡上相應題號的橫線上。每個空格只填一個單詞。PopulationChangeWhyistheworld’spopulationgrowing?Theanswerisnotwhatyoumightthink.Thereasonfortheexplosionisnotthatpeoplehavebeenreproducinglikerabbits,butthatpeoplehavestoppeddroppingdeadlikeflies.In1900,peoplediedattheaverageageof30.By2000theaverageagewas65.Butwhileincreasinghealthwasatupicalfeatureofthe20thcentury,decliningbirthratecouldbeadefiningoneofthe21st.Statisticsshowthattheaveragenumberofbirthsperwomanhasfallenfrom4.9intheearly1960sto2.5owadays.Furthermore,around50%oftheworld’spopulationliveinregionswherethefigureisnowbelowthereplacementlevel(i.e.2.1birthsperwoman)andalmostalldevelopednationsareexperiencingsub-repalanementbirthrate.Youmightthinkthatdevelopingnationswouldmakeuptheloss(especiallysince80%oftheworld’speoplenowliveinsuchnations),butyou’dbewrong,Decliningbirthrateisamajorprobleminmanydevelopingregionstoo,whichmightcausecatastrophicglobalshortagesofworkforcewithinafewdecades.AgreatdeclineinyoungworkforceislikelytooccurinChina,forinstance.Whatdoesitimply?First,Chinaneedstoundergorapideconomicdevelopmentbeforeapopulationdeclinehitsthecountry.Sencond,ifotherfactorssuchastechnologyremainconstant,economicgrowthandmaterialexpectationswillfallwellbelowrecentstandardsandthiscouldinvitetrouble.Russiaisanothercountrywithpopulationproblemsthatcouldbreakitseconomicpromise.Since1992thenumberofpeopledyinghasbeenbiggenthanthatofthosebeingbornbyamassive50%,Indeedofficialfiguressuggestthecountryhasshrunkby5%since1993andpeopleinRussialiveashorterlifenowthanthosein1961.Whyisthisoccurring?Nobodyisquitesure,butpoordietanabovealllong-timealcoholismhavemuchtodowithit.Ifcurrenttrendsdon’tbend.Russia’spopulationwillbeaboutthesizeofYemen’sbytheyear2050.Inthenorthofindia,thepopulationisboomingduetohighbirthrates,butinthesouth,wheremosteconmoicdevelopmentistakingplace,birthrateisfallingrapidly.Inafurthertwist,birthrateishighestinpoorlyeducatedruralarceasanlowestinhighlyeducatedurbanareas.Intotal,25%ofIndia’sworking-agepopulationhasnoeducation.In2030,asixthofthecountry’spotentialworkforcecouldbetotallyuneducated.Onesolutionisobviouslytoimportforeignworkersviaimmigration.AsfortheUSA,itisalmost
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