東西部經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展研究-從新經(jīng)濟(jì)地理角度

TheparisonoftheeconomicdevelopmentbetweenEastandWestinchina theviewofneweconomicgeographyMathematicaleconomicsWangwei2009103107Abstract:EastandWestinchinahavethesamelevelofdevelopmentinaverylongtime.Butinthemodern,especiallysincetheopeningreform,thewesternregionofchinahasdevelopedlowlierthantheeasternregion.Therearesomereasons.Forinstance,governmentsupports.Butitistheworththateconomicgeographyisalsotheveryimportantreason.This,wewillbinewiththeneweconomicgeographytheoryofKrugmantoexplaintheformationofthedifferencebetweenEastandWestandgivesomeadvices.Keywords:thedifferenceofeastandwesttheneweconomicgeographyeconomicscaletrafficcostlaborflowingOne、IntroducedtheneweconomicgeographytheoryofKrugmanKrugman(1991)publishedtheveryfamousarticlewhichisthereturnofeconomicscaleandtheeconomicgeography"It.isoftenconsideredthefirsttrutharticleabouttheneweconomicgeography.However,somethoughtshavebeenpresentedintheearlytime.Inthearticle,Krugmanhasestablishedacentre---peripherymodeltoanswerwhythetwoareaswhichhavethesimilarpopulationsizemayhavethedifference.Thepopulationofoneregionisflowingtoanotherregion,andenterprisesmoving,eventuallyoneregionwillbecamethecentreofindustry,anotherregionbeingtheagricultureareas.Krugmansupposesthatitonlyhastworegionsintheworld.Inthebeginning,thetworegionshavethesimilarpopulationscale.Butbychance,theequilibriumofpopulationisbroken.Now,thepopulationofoneregionisslightlylargerthananotherregion.Ifthelocalmarketeffectsandtherealwageseffectsarestrongenough,theinitialpopulationchangewillfurtherstimulatethemigrationtoalargerarea.Thiswillstarttheprocessofcumulativecycle.Thedeepincreasingofimmigrantpopulationandthemarketsizewillimprovetherealwageandstimulateimmigrationagain.Especiallywhentransportationcostfalltoathreshold,theconcentrationofpowerwillsuddenlybeestronger,presenting“instantaneoumutation”.Atthepoint,thenewequilibriumisnolongertheoriginalsituation.Oneregionwillbeethecentreofindustry,inthesametime;theotherregionwillbeetheagriculture.However,thereareopposingforces.Alargenumberofimmigrationmusthavehighenoughrealwagescontinually,andsoenterprisesarehopethatitwillmoveoutwardfromthecentreofindustry.Therefore,industrymayoccurinthetworegions.Theresultdependsontheplexinteractionoftransportationcost,economicscaleandconsumerpreference.Lowertransportationcost,greatereconomicscaleandlargeshareofmanufacturegoodsarethenecessarycondition.Krugman'sanalysismakesuseasilyunderstandtheformationofurbanization,thecentre---peripherystructureevolvingandhowtostrengthenthetrendbytransportationcostdecliningandtheincreasingreturnsoftechnology.Two、OverviewtheeconomicdevelopmentofEastandWest(One)、DescriptionofthegapTherehavetwowaystodescribetheeconomicgap.Oneistheabsoluteeconomicgap;theotheristherelativeeconomicgap.(1)、AbsoluteeconomicgapbetweenEastandWestTheGDPofabsolutegapbetweenEasternandWesternSincetheopeningreform,theabsoluteamountofGDPbetweenEasternandWesternareincreasing.Itisverycredible.Onthefigure,thegapbetweenEasternandWesterniswidening.In1978,thegapofthetworegionswasapproachingzero.Thatstosay,theywerenotdifferentobviously.Butby2006,thegapofGDPwasabout20000.Theyweredifferentobviously.TheabsoluteamountofGDPinEasternexceededgreatlytheWestern.Thegapiswidening.Thiscanbeknownbytheslopeofthecurve.Andthespeedofthegapincreasingismoreandmorequick.Theslopeofthecurveispositivenumberfrom1978to2006,thatis,thegapwhichistheabsoluteamountofGDPbetweenEasternandWesternisincreasingcontinually.(2)、RelativeeconomicgapbetweenEastandWestThemultipleofpercapitaGDPgapbetweenEastandWest197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000200220042006WefindthattheratiowhichistheGDPpercapitabetweenEastandWestisbasicallystableatalevel.Therateissmallincreasing.Andtherearesomesignsofconvergence.ItisnotliketheincreasingoftheabsoluteGDP.Itisasightshockonthebasisincreasinggenerally.AndtherelativeGDPincreasingreachedmaximumin2005,thenithasadownwardtrend.Thatis,thereistheconvergenceofthemultipleofGDPpercapitabetweenEasternandWestern.Theslopeofthecurveisnotalwayspositivenumberfrom1978to2006.Itisvariablemumble,thatis,thegapwhichistherelativeamountofGDPbetweenEasternandWesternisnotincreasingcontinually.(3)、TheeconomicdevelopmenttrendofEastandWestAccordingtothemultipleofpercapitaGDPgapbetweenEasternandWestern,itisconvergence,butitisalargeimpactbythetotalGDPbetweenEasternandWestern.ItdoesnotchangethattheabsolutegapofpercapitaGDPbetweenEasternandWesternishigh---speedexpanding.So,inreally,thegapbetweeneasternandwesternisrapidlyexpanding.Ifthestateisgoingon,by2007thegapbetweenEasternandWesternwillexpandto24734Yuanfrom19220Yuanin2006.WeknowthegapwhichistheabsoluteamountofGDPbetweenEasternandWesternisgreat,butthegapwhichistherelativeamountofGDPbetweenEasternandWesternisquitesmall.Inthesametime,thetotalGDPbetweenEasternandWesternisquitelarge,sothegapwhichistheGDPbetweenEasternandWesternisalsoverygreat.Three、ThereasonofthegapexpandingbetweenEastandWest(1)、ThereasonofthegapexpandingbetweenEastandWestIntheneweconomicgeographytheory,Krugmanisoneofthemostfamouspersons.Thecentre---peripherytheoryisthemainideaofKrugman.Beforetheopeningofreform,therearetheespeciallysimilarconditionsintheeastandwest.Thegapofinebetweeneastandwestisslight.Theyhavetheirindustry.Itistheonlyproblemthattheindustryofeastisslightlybetterthantheindustryofwest.Theseareanswersthatwecandrawfromtheabovefigure.So,whatarereasonsthatwhytheeconomydevelopmentofeastisgreatlyquickthantheeconomydevelopmentofwestaftertheopeningofreform.Atthetime,itisquithardthatthewestkeepsupwiththeeast.Themainreasonisthatthewageleveloftheeasternregionhasbeengreatlyimproved,undertheguidanceofthegovernment.Asthewagelevelhasgreatlyimproved,thelaborforcebeginstoflowtotheeasternregiontoseekhigherprofits.Theconsumermarkethasbeenconsolidatedintheeasternregionandithasalargerexpansion.Businessesaremorewillingtolayoutsomenewfactoriesclosetotheconsumermarketintheseareas,duetohighertransportationcostsandtheotherfactors.Likethis,themarketisfurtherexpanding.Inordertoretainmoreworkers,paniesarewillingtoincreasewages,sothatworkerswhoarenotintheregionareintotheareaevenmore.Whenthetransportationcostsdecreasetothemiddlelevel,panieswillgatherintheregion.Thereasonisthatthebeforeeffectandtheaftereffectisthestrongest,whenthetransportationcostsisinthemiddlelevels.Thatistosay,whenitisthegreatertheconsumerdemandintheregion,theremustbestrongereconomiesofscale,thehigherpriceindexandthecumulativeeffectofthecausalandeffectofrecycling.Theseeffectscausetheshareofmanufacturingintheregionbeegreaterandthepriceindexisalsolower.Asconsumerpriceislower,itleadstothelocatemarketbeingfurtherlarger.Becauseoftheeconomyscalereturnincreasing,moreandmoremanufacturingpanieswillentertheregion.Incaseoffurtherreducingtransportcosts,thepanyisfurthercentralizedordecentralized,dependingonhowmuchtheconcentrationofpoweranddecentralizationofpoweris.Whenthetransportationcostsdecreasetothemainpowerwhichisdispersionforcespaniesdonotclosetothemarkettolayoutnewfactories.Industrywhichgathersintheareasmaydecentralize.Astheabovesaying,Easternregionisexperiencingsuchaperiod.Inthepast30years,easternareashavegatheredalargenumberofpaniesncludingmanyforeignpanies,whilethewesternbusinessisverypoor.Butinrecentyears,manypaniesbegantomoveintothewesternregion.ThisisasKrugmanspeaking.Underthebinedeffectfurther,businessescan'taffordtopaythehighcostoflaborandthepetitionbetweenonebusinessandtheotherbusinessesistoolargeThefactorieshavetomoveoutfromthegatheringareas.Thiseventistakingplaceintheeasternregion.(2)、theempiricalanalysisofIndustrygatheringandeconomydevelopmentbetweeneastandwestInthispaper,weadopttheindustriallocationGinicoefficienttomeasurethedegreeofconcentrationofdifferentindustries,andtheanalysisthegeographicaldistributionstateofthefollowingfourindustries.區(qū)位基尼系數(shù)大于全行業(yè)區(qū)位基尼系數(shù)均值的行業(yè)的區(qū)位分布 ％行業(yè)地名20012005行業(yè)地名20012005食品加工業(yè)山東21.827.9器材制造江蘇12.519.5江蘇9.76.9上海10.312.7OR8.47北京11.16.57河南7.68.4OR3236.4總計(jì)47.650總計(jì)6675.2紡織業(yè)江蘇2423.8儀器儀表OR35.433.4浙江16.923.1浙江1010.8山東12.417.5江蘇15.316.4OR10.38.76上海11.410總計(jì)63.873.3總計(jì)72.270.8Wecanseefromthetablethatthehigherdegreeofindustryconcentrationare

basicallylocatedinGuangdong,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Shanghaiandothereasterncities.ThedegreeofindustryconcentrationintheWesterncitiesbasicallyisnothigh,exceptsourceindustry.Thefollowingrankingisbasedonthesizeofthegathereffectofthemanufacturingandeconomicgrowthinthemajorcitiesoftheeast-west.經(jīng)濟(jì)噌長率經(jīng)濟(jì)噌長率犒造業(yè)堂費(fèi)效應(yīng)Youcanseethegathereffectofmanufacturingofthewesterncityislowerandeconomicgrowthisalsolowerthantheseintheeasterncity.Fromtheaboveanalysiswecangetthefollowingconclusions.Sincetheopeningofreform,duetobreakingtheoldrigidplannedeconomicsystem,transactioncostsdecreasedsignificantlyandthedegreeofconcentrationaresigni----ficantlyincreasedinallsectors.Theeasterncoastalareashaveabetterfoundationforeconomicdevelopment,populationdensityandlocalmarketdemandthantheseofwesternareas.Atthesametime,becausethestategivessomespecialeconomicpolicytosomecitiesofeasterncoastalareas,itmakesthecostsdecreasegreatlywhichtheseareasparticipateininternationaltrade.Theselowercostsarehardlyfoundinthecentralandwesternregions.Thesefactorsmakeeasterncoastalareasbeethedestinationofindustrialclustering.Easterncoastalareas