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EuropeanStatusofPVSolarElectricity
TechnologyandMarketDr.WinfriedHoffmann
ChairmanoftheManagementBoardofSCHOTTSolarGmbH
MemberoftheBoardoftheEuropeanPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociation(EPIA)andtheGermanSolarIndustryAssociation(BSi)andmemberoftheScientificBoardofFhG-ISEandISFH
SCHOTTSolarGmbH?Carl-Zeiss-Strasse4?63755Alzenau,Germany
Phone:+49(0)602391-1710?Fax:+49(0)602391-1729
email:?/solarSemiconJapan2005,TokyoDecember9th,2005PreambleEuropehas,likeJapan,definedPVsolarelectricityasoneofthemostimportantfuturekeytechnologies.Inordertoenabletheproductionindustrytodevelopcompetitively,marketsupportprogramswereencouragedintheEUmemberstates.This,however,willonlybesupportedaslongasastrongEUbasedproductionindustryinharmonywiththemarketsizecanbeestablished.Theindustryfromthemostimportantworldeconomyregions(Japan,Europe,US,SEA)shouldproactivelysecuretheirlocalmarketdevelopmentsincorrespondencewiththerespectivelocalindustrycapacityincrease.GPSC:GlobalSolarElectricityCouncilHistoryoftheinitiative:Paris–June2004–Proposaloftheaction–IndustryDay,19thEUPVSECBarcelona–June2005–MeetingwithnationalPVassociationsfromaroundtheGlobeMission:Itsmissionconsiststopromotethephotovoltaicenergyontheglobalmarketplaceasasustainableandcleanelectricitysupplyforon-gridandoff-gridapplications.GPSC
isaplatformforsupportingitsmembersintheircommoninterestfortheindustryneedsandforthemarketdevelopmentMembers:
WorldwidePVplayersandassociationsPriorityActivities:StatisticsWarrantyandGuaranteeissuesBoundaryconditionsStandardizationandcertification(modulesandsystems,waste,recyclingandreusing)Competitivenesswithotherenergysources(externalities,socio-economicissues)InternationalcooperationAlzenau,HeadquartersFullyintegratedproductionofwafers,cellsandmodulesPhototronics(PST)PutzbrunnProductionofthinfilmmodulesSCHOTTSolarGmbH
SCHOTTSolar,Inc.
Billerica(MA)USAFullyintegratedproductionofwafers,cellsandmodules
SCHOTTSolarInc.
Rocklin(CA)USASystemintegrationSalesofmodulesandsystemsSCHOTTSolarCRValasskeMezirici,CR
ProductionofmodulesSCHOTTSolarGroupEmployess: ca.900world-wideTurnover:285Mio.€inFY2005SCHOTTAGSubsidiaries100%20011999196019701980AEGTelefunken
MobilTycoSolarEnergy1990MBB
1994PSTDASA50%NUKEM50%MobilSolarEnergy1996100%TESSAG100%NUKEMGmbH100%RWESolutionsAGASEGmbHASEAmericasInc.2002RWESCHOTTSolarGmbHRWESCHOTTSolarInc.JointVenture
RWESolutionsSCHOTTGlasRWESolarGmbHASEAmericasInc.2005SCHOTTSolarGmbH19992001Morethan300Satelliteswith
RWESolarcells
ASE
SAX(1)
1991/93
AZUR(1)
1968/69
INTELSAT4(2)
1970/71
ESRO4(2)
1971/72
CTS/
HERMES(2)
1973/74
HELIOSA(3)
1973/74
GEOS1,2(2)
1973/74
OTS1,2(2)
1974/75
IUE(1)
1974/75
MAROTS(1)
1974/75
ISEE-B(1)
1974/75
EXOSAT(1)
1978/79
INTELSAT5(15)
1976/82
ECS(5)
1977/83
HUBBLE
SPACETELESCOPE(1)
1978/90
IRAS(1)
1978/79
MARECS(3)
1978/82
TELECOM1(3)
1981/85
OSCAR(3)
1980/81
TDF(2)
1981/88
SPOT1-4(4)
1981/93
ARABSAT1(1)
1981/85
GIOTTO(1)
1981/85
IRM-
AMPTE(1)
1981/84
OLYMPUS(2)
1982/84
TV-SAT(2)
1981/85
DFS(3)
1983/88
IRS1(2)
1983/85
METEOSAT(4)
1983/88
INTELSAT6(5)
1982/85
SKYNET4(3)
1982/85
ERS(2)
1985/87
ROSAT(1)
1984/89
TDF(1)
1985/89
TELE-X(1)
1984/85
HIPPARCOS(1)
1984/86
EURECA(1)
1985/88
ISO(1)
1986/92
INSAT(2)
1986/89
EUTELSAT2(4)
1986/89
SKYNET4(3)
1985/90
ASPERA(3)
1986/87
INTELSAT7(5)
1989/92
BREMSAT(1)
1991/92
INSAT2(3)
1990/92
EUTELSAT2(1)
1990/92
HELIOS(2)
1989/93
LOCSTAR(2)
1989/92
FREJA(1)
1991/92
SOHO(1)
1991/94
ITALSAT2(1)
1991/93
IRS1(2)
1991/94
TüRKSAT1(3)
1991/92
POSAT(1)
1992/93
POLARPLATFORM(1)
1992/96
UOSAT(1)
1992/93
CLUSTER(4)
1992/95
RADARSAT(1)
1992/94
KITSAT(1)
1992/93
AMOS(1)
1993/94
IRSP2(1)
1993
TS1(1)
1993/94
ARTEMIS(1)
1994/95
TüRKSAT2(2)
1994/95
ARABSAT(2)
1994/95
INSAT(6)
1993/98
THAICOM3(1)
1995/96
ROCSAT(1)
1998
EQUATORS(1)
1996/97
SROSS(1)
1993/94
SIRIUS(4)
1996/97
EUTELSATW24(4)
1996/97
IRAD(6)
1996/97
GLOBALSTAR(49)
1996/98
STENTOR(1)
1996/98
HOTBIRD4,5(2)
1996/97
NAHUEL1(1)
1996/97
SPC(8)
1995/99
ICOP(1)
1997/98
SKYNET(2)
1996/97
SBIRS(1)
1997/98
SINGASAT(1)
1997/98
METEOSAT(3)
1996/99
INTEGRAL(1)
1997/98
SINOSAT(3)
1996/97
XMM(1)
1997
EOS(2)
1997/98
ABRIXAS(1)
1997/98
ORION2(2)
1997/98
AGILA(2)
1994/95
HISPASAT(2)
1998/99
WORLDSTAR(4)
1997/98
ASTRA(1)
1997/98
ROSETTA(1)
2000
INSAT(1)
1999
HES(3)
1998/99
SSL-AF(1)
1998/99
ARABSAT(2)
1998/99
PROTEUS(1)
1998/99
SPOT5(2)
1998/99
METOP(3)
1998/99
PROBA(1)
1999/00
HELIOS2(2)
1999
ATV(10)
2001/08
GLOBALSTAR(10)
1999
Geolite(1)
19991)
1999
CHAMP(2)
1998
INTELSAT(1)
1997/98
INTELSAT
KTV(1)
1999
ASTRA2B(1)
1999
EUTELSATW1R(1)
1999
Since1964
RWESpaceSolarPowerhaspowered...
...morethan300satellites.
RADARSAT
2001
INMARSAT
2001/02
INTELSAT(2)
2001/02
ROCSAT
2001
RRRWWWEEE
SSSpppaaaccceee
SSSooolllaaarrr
PPPooowwweeerrr
iiinnn
SSSpppaaaccceee
W3A
2001
CAST
2001
HES2
2002
SPC(10)
2002
Amazonas
2002
ErosB
2002
Proteus2
2002
Goce
2002
SarLupe
2003
Herschel
2003
Planck
2003
Anik
2003
?RWESpaceSolarPowerGmbH90bncm245bncm2todaym2semiconductorareacm2waferareatypicalcharacterizationbyin-linebatchtypeprocesstechnologythinfilm(aSi,II-IV,dye,organic)flatpaneldisplay(aSi)newproductsIII-VIII-V(GaAs)newmaterialssiliconwafersiliconwafermainstreamtechnologybasePVsolarelectricityindustrysemiconductorindustryValueAddedChainforPVSystems(c-Si)LaminateModuleSi-FeedstockBOS-DC/ACBOS-othersInstallation(ca.)CellWafer100%stand-aloneSi,Wafer,CellLaminateBOSModuleInstallation40%5%5%5-10%5-10%PartsofPVadd-oncosttakenbystandardbuildingmaterials60–70%BIPVGaryHoman:HemlockSemiconductorCorporation, 2ndSolarSiliconConference,Munich2005TheSolarSupplyChainSGS/ASiMISiliconIngot/WafersCellsModulesHSCCrystaloxQ-CellWackerTokuyamaMEMCOthersRECSCHOTTSolar*SharpSolarWorldExamplesofManufacturingCompanies(notallinclusive*additionSGPC)Kyocera,BPSolarInvestmentsintheValueChainCrystallineSi-Modules20…40Modules30…50Cells60…80Wafer60…120SifeedstockMio€per100MWInvesments11110-170WorldPVMarketSizeandApplicationSegmentation1218%p.a.63%p.a.40%p.a.0200400600800100012001998199920002001200220032004MarketSizeinMWpOff-Grid&Consumeron-GridCompetitivenessbetweenElectricityGeneratingCostforPVandUtilityPricesSource:RWEEnergieAGandRSSGmbHPhotovoltaicsUtilitypeakpowerBulkpowermarketsupportprogramsnecessary:SpotMarketPricesinCorrelationwithPVElectricityGenerationinGermanySpotmarketpricePVpoweroutputSource:
HistoryForecast15PriceExperienceCurve
forPVSolarModules0110110100100010000GWpaccumulated$/Wpmoduleprice1GWp/a20043,5GWp/a201035GWp/a2020330GWp/a2030experiencefactor15%18%110100110100100010000MWpaccumulated$/Wpmoduleprice20%pricedecreasebydoublingcumulativevolumeCostandpricedecreaseoftechnologydrivenPV solarelectricityminimum -3%p.a.realistic -5%p.a.maximum -7%p.a.Priceincreaseofstandardelectricityproduction
minimum +1%p.a.realistic +3%p.a.maximum +5%p.a.CompetitivenessofPVsolarelectricityFutureGrowthoftheGlobalPVSolarElectricity
MarketinGWandbn$TurnoverinstalledGWpperyearinvestementsinproductionmachinery[bn$]modulemarketvolume[bn$p.a.](Assumption:$=€)0,111010010002000201020202030110100100010000+25%p.a.+17%p.a.2004TechnologyEvolution05101520250123051015202501232020+2010+ModuleEfficiency[%]2000+c-SiTFa-Si-pin/pina-Si/μc-SiII-VIdyea-Si-pinII-VIrrmcmcCzCzModulePrice/Wp[rel.units]CAGRPoly-Demand2004-2021:+15%SOLAR-GRADESILICON:
SUPPLYCANNOTFOLLOWDEMAND.Moduleproduction(MW)andPolysiliconProduction(tons)tonsMW3,1GW050001000015000200002500030000350001995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010110100100010000SolarsiliconByproductsofElectronicsDemandModuleproductionModuleproductionbasedon20%growth/year
DevelopmentofAnnualSiliconConsumption010203040506070809010020002005201020152020202520302035YearRelativemarketsharec-Si[%]Siliconconsumption[g/Wp]01002003004005006007008009001000AnnualSiliconconsumption[1000t/a]S1Scenario1Scenario2S2MarketdataEuropeincludingthe100000rooftopprogram/feed-intariff(EEG)inGermanySource:IEAPVPS21YearlyinstalledMWp100000roof-topprogramKfWEEGEEGPVamendmentEuropeanMarketSupportProgramsplannedGreece100/3002044-49ItalyI,Tlifetime28–51PortugalCap[MW]Duration[a]Tariff[€ct/kWh]complicated-2015–30FranceI,T3002522–40Spain-2048–62Germanyothersupportprograms(I:InvestmentsubsidyT:Taxreduction)Feed-inlawCountry22WürthSolar(CSi)SCHOTTSolar(ASi)ThinFilmScheutenKyoceraSharpAtersaPhotovoltechTopsilAleoSunwaysPillar…SolarfabrikQ-CellsScanWaferMeyer&BurgerEtimexSolarwattErsolPVCrystaloxHCTJuraPlastIsofotonUnaxis…VesuviusBPSolarAppliedFilmsSt.GobainMulticontactShellSolarRoth&RauDuPontKACOPhotowattSchmidDowCorningFroniusSCHOTTSolarEteraElkemSMASolarWorldCentrothermWackerModuleCellWaferManufacturer(Sifs,glass,chemicals)BOSComponentManufacturerEquipmentBasematerialsProductionandMarket-CurrentSituationPVIndustry(2003/2004):ProductionMarket36520210986594344141176JapanEuropeUSAROW21919766922
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