歐洲光伏太陽能發(fā)電技術(shù)和市場的現(xiàn)狀27

EuropeanStatusofPVSolarElectricity

TechnologyandMarketDr.WinfriedHoffmann

ChairmanoftheManagementBoardofSCHOTTSolarGmbH

MemberoftheBoardoftheEuropeanPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociation(EPIA)andtheGermanSolarIndustryAssociation(BSi)andmemberoftheScientificBoardofFhG-ISEandISFH

SCHOTTSolarGmbH?Carl-Zeiss-Strasse4?63755Alzenau,Germany

Phone:+49(0)602391-1710?Fax:+49(0)602391-1729

email:?/solarSemiconJapan2005,TokyoDecember9th,2005PreambleEuropehas,likeJapan,definedPVsolarelectricityasoneofthemostimportantfuturekeytechnologies.Inordertoenabletheproductionindustrytodevelopcompetitively,marketsupportprogramswereencouragedintheEUmemberstates.This,however,willonlybesupportedaslongasastrongEUbasedproductionindustryinharmonywiththemarketsizecanbeestablished.Theindustryfromthemostimportantworldeconomyregions(Japan,Europe,US,SEA)shouldproactivelysecuretheirlocalmarketdevelopmentsincorrespondencewiththerespectivelocalindustrycapacityincrease.GPSC:GlobalSolarElectricityCouncilHistoryoftheinitiative:Paris–June2004–Proposaloftheaction–IndustryDay,19thEUPVSECBarcelona–June2005–MeetingwithnationalPVassociationsfromaroundtheGlobeMission:Itsmissionconsiststopromotethephotovoltaicenergyontheglobalmarketplaceasasustainableandcleanelectricitysupplyforon-gridandoff-gridapplications.GPSC

isaplatformforsupportingitsmembersintheircommoninterestfortheindustryneedsandforthemarketdevelopmentMembers:

WorldwidePVplayersandassociationsPriorityActivities:StatisticsWarrantyandGuaranteeissuesBoundaryconditionsStandardizationandcertification(modulesandsystems,waste,recyclingandreusing)Competitivenesswithotherenergysources(externalities,socio-economicissues)InternationalcooperationAlzenau,HeadquartersFullyintegratedproductionofwafers,cellsandmodulesPhototronics(PST)PutzbrunnProductionofthinfilmmodulesSCHOTTSolarGmbH

SCHOTTSolar,Inc.

Billerica(MA)USAFullyintegratedproductionofwafers,cellsandmodules

SCHOTTSolarInc.

Rocklin(CA)USASystemintegrationSalesofmodulesandsystemsSCHOTTSolarCRValasskeMezirici,CR

ProductionofmodulesSCHOTTSolarGroupEmployess: ca.900world-wideTurnover:285Mio.€inFY2005SCHOTTAGSubsidiaries100%20011999196019701980AEGTelefunken

MobilTycoSolarEnergy1990MBB

1994PSTDASA50%NUKEM50%MobilSolarEnergy1996100%TESSAG100%NUKEMGmbH100%RWESolutionsAGASEGmbHASEAmericasInc.2002RWESCHOTTSolarGmbHRWESCHOTTSolarInc.JointVenture

RWESolutionsSCHOTTGlasRWESolarGmbHASEAmericasInc.2005SCHOTTSolarGmbH19992001Morethan300Satelliteswith

RWESolarcells

ASE

SAX(1)

1991/93

AZUR(1)

1968/69

INTELSAT4(2)

1970/71

ESRO4(2)

1971/72

CTS/

HERMES(2)

1973/74

HELIOSA(3)

1973/74

GEOS1,2(2)

1973/74

OTS1,2(2)

1974/75

IUE(1)

1974/75

MAROTS(1)

1974/75

ISEE-B(1)

1974/75

EXOSAT(1)

1978/79

INTELSAT5(15)

1976/82

ECS(5)

1977/83

HUBBLE

SPACETELESCOPE(1)

1978/90

IRAS(1)

1978/79

MARECS(3)

1978/82

TELECOM1(3)

1981/85

OSCAR(3)

1980/81

TDF(2)

1981/88

SPOT1-4(4)

1981/93

ARABSAT1(1)

1981/85

GIOTTO(1)

1981/85

IRM-

AMPTE(1)

1981/84

OLYMPUS(2)

1982/84

TV-SAT(2)

1981/85

DFS(3)

1983/88

IRS1(2)

1983/85

METEOSAT(4)

1983/88

INTELSAT6(5)

1982/85

SKYNET4(3)

1982/85

ERS(2)

1985/87

ROSAT(1)

1984/89

TDF(1)

1985/89

TELE-X(1)

1984/85

HIPPARCOS(1)

1984/86

EURECA(1)

1985/88

ISO(1)

1986/92

INSAT(2)

1986/89

EUTELSAT2(4)

1986/89

SKYNET4(3)

1985/90

ASPERA(3)

1986/87

INTELSAT7(5)

1989/92

BREMSAT(1)

1991/92

INSAT2(3)

1990/92

EUTELSAT2(1)

1990/92

HELIOS(2)

1989/93

LOCSTAR(2)

1989/92

FREJA(1)

1991/92

SOHO(1)

1991/94

ITALSAT2(1)

1991/93

IRS1(2)

1991/94

TüRKSAT1(3)

1991/92

POSAT(1)

1992/93

POLARPLATFORM(1)

1992/96

UOSAT(1)

1992/93

CLUSTER(4)

1992/95

RADARSAT(1)

1992/94

KITSAT(1)

1992/93

AMOS(1)

1993/94

IRSP2(1)

1993

TS1(1)

1993/94

ARTEMIS(1)

1994/95

TüRKSAT2(2)

1994/95

ARABSAT(2)

1994/95

INSAT(6)

1993/98

THAICOM3(1)

1995/96

ROCSAT(1)

1998

EQUATORS(1)

1996/97

SROSS(1)

1993/94

SIRIUS(4)

1996/97

EUTELSATW24(4)

1996/97

IRAD(6)

1996/97

GLOBALSTAR(49)

1996/98

STENTOR(1)

1996/98

HOTBIRD4,5(2)

1996/97

NAHUEL1(1)

1996/97

SPC(8)

1995/99

ICOP(1)

1997/98

SKYNET(2)

1996/97

SBIRS(1)

1997/98

SINGASAT(1)

1997/98

METEOSAT(3)

1996/99

INTEGRAL(1)

1997/98

SINOSAT(3)

1996/97

XMM(1)

1997

EOS(2)

1997/98

ABRIXAS(1)

1997/98

ORION2(2)

1997/98

AGILA(2)

1994/95

HISPASAT(2)

1998/99

WORLDSTAR(4)

1997/98

ASTRA(1)

1997/98

ROSETTA(1)

2000

INSAT(1)

1999

HES(3)

1998/99

SSL-AF(1)

1998/99

ARABSAT(2)

1998/99

PROTEUS(1)

1998/99

SPOT5(2)

1998/99

METOP(3)

1998/99

PROBA(1)

1999/00

HELIOS2(2)

1999

ATV(10)

2001/08

GLOBALSTAR(10)

1999

Geolite(1)

19991)

1999

CHAMP(2)

1998

INTELSAT(1)

1997/98

INTELSAT

KTV(1)

1999

ASTRA2B(1)

1999

EUTELSATW1R(1)

1999

Since1964

RWESpaceSolarPowerhaspowered...

...morethan300satellites.

RADARSAT

2001

INMARSAT

2001/02

INTELSAT(2)

2001/02

ROCSAT

2001

RRRWWWEEE

SSSpppaaaccceee

SSSooolllaaarrr

PPPooowwweeerrr

iiinnn

SSSpppaaaccceee

W3A

2001

CAST

2001

HES2

2002

SPC(10)

2002

Amazonas

2002

ErosB

2002

Proteus2

2002

Goce

2002

SarLupe

2003

Herschel

2003

Planck

2003

Anik

2003

?RWESpaceSolarPowerGmbH90bncm245bncm2todaym2semiconductorareacm2waferareatypicalcharacterizationbyin-linebatchtypeprocesstechnologythinfilm(aSi,II-IV,dye,organic)flatpaneldisplay(aSi)newproductsIII-VIII-V(GaAs)newmaterialssiliconwafersiliconwafermainstreamtechnologybasePVsolarelectricityindustrysemiconductorindustryValueAddedChainforPVSystems(c-Si)LaminateModuleSi-FeedstockBOS-DC/ACBOS-othersInstallation(ca.)CellWafer100%stand-aloneSi,Wafer,CellLaminateBOSModuleInstallation40%5%5%5-10%5-10%PartsofPVadd-oncosttakenbystandardbuildingmaterials60–70%BIPVGaryHoman:HemlockSemiconductorCorporation, 2ndSolarSiliconConference,Munich2005TheSolarSupplyChainSGS/ASiMISiliconIngot/WafersCellsModulesHSCCrystaloxQ-CellWackerTokuyamaMEMCOthersRECSCHOTTSolar*SharpSolarWorldExamplesofManufacturingCompanies(notallinclusive*additionSGPC)Kyocera,BPSolarInvestmentsintheValueChainCrystallineSi-Modules20…40Modules30…50Cells60…80Wafer60…120SifeedstockMio€per100MWInvesments11110-170WorldPVMarketSizeandApplicationSegmentation1218%p.a.63%p.a.40%p.a.0200400600800100012001998199920002001200220032004MarketSizeinMWpOff-Grid&Consumeron-GridCompetitivenessbetweenElectricityGeneratingCostforPVandUtilityPricesSource:RWEEnergieAGandRSSGmbHPhotovoltaicsUtilitypeakpowerBulkpowermarketsupportprogramsnecessary:SpotMarketPricesinCorrelationwithPVElectricityGenerationinGermanySpotmarketpricePVpoweroutputSource:

HistoryForecast15PriceExperienceCurve

forPVSolarModules0110110100100010000GWpaccumulated$/Wpmoduleprice1GWp/a20043,5GWp/a201035GWp/a2020330GWp/a2030experiencefactor15%18%110100110100100010000MWpaccumulated$/Wpmoduleprice20%pricedecreasebydoublingcumulativevolumeCostandpricedecreaseoftechnologydrivenPV solarelectricityminimum -3%p.a.realistic -5%p.a.maximum -7%p.a.Priceincreaseofstandardelectricityproduction

minimum +1%p.a.realistic +3%p.a.maximum +5%p.a.CompetitivenessofPVsolarelectricityFutureGrowthoftheGlobalPVSolarElectricity

MarketinGWandbn$TurnoverinstalledGWpperyearinvestementsinproductionmachinery[bn$]modulemarketvolume[bn$p.a.](Assumption:$=€)0,111010010002000201020202030110100100010000+25%p.a.+17%p.a.2004TechnologyEvolution05101520250123051015202501232020+2010+ModuleEfficiency[%]2000+c-SiTFa-Si-pin/pina-Si/μc-SiII-VIdyea-Si-pinII-VIrrmcmcCzCzModulePrice/Wp[rel.units]CAGRPoly-Demand2004-2021:+15%SOLAR-GRADESILICON:

SUPPLYCANNOTFOLLOWDEMAND.Moduleproduction(MW)andPolysiliconProduction(tons)tonsMW3,1GW050001000015000200002500030000350001995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010110100100010000SolarsiliconByproductsofElectronicsDemandModuleproductionModuleproductionbasedon20%growth/year

DevelopmentofAnnualSiliconConsumption010203040506070809010020002005201020152020202520302035YearRelativemarketsharec-Si[%]Siliconconsumption[g/Wp]01002003004005006007008009001000AnnualSiliconconsumption[1000t/a]S1Scenario1Scenario2S2MarketdataEuropeincludingthe100000rooftopprogram/feed-intariff(EEG)inGermanySource:IEAPVPS21YearlyinstalledMWp100000roof-topprogramKfWEEGEEGPVamendmentEuropeanMarketSupportProgramsplannedGreece100/3002044-49ItalyI,Tlifetime28–51PortugalCap[MW]Duration[a]Tariff[€ct/kWh]complicated-2015–30FranceI,T3002522–40Spain-2048–62Germanyothersupportprograms(I:InvestmentsubsidyT:Taxreduction)Feed-inlawCountry22WürthSolar(CSi)SCHOTTSolar(ASi)ThinFilmScheutenKyoceraSharpAtersaPhotovoltechTopsilAleoSunwaysPillar…SolarfabrikQ-CellsScanWaferMeyer&BurgerEtimexSolarwattErsolPVCrystaloxHCTJuraPlastIsofotonUnaxis…VesuviusBPSolarAppliedFilmsSt.GobainMulticontactShellSolarRoth&RauDuPontKACOPhotowattSchmidDowCorningFroniusSCHOTTSolarEteraElkemSMASolarWorldCentrothermWackerModuleCellWaferManufacturer(Sifs,glass,chemicals)BOSComponentManufacturerEquipmentBasematerialsProductionandMarket-CurrentSituationPVIndustry(2003/2004):ProductionMarket36520210986594344141176JapanEuropeUSAROW21919766922