《2022年農(nóng)產(chǎn)品市場(chǎng)狀況（英）》

2022

THESTATEOF

AGRICULTURAL

COMMODITY

MARKETS

THEGEOGRAPHYOFFOOD

ANDAGRICULTURALTRADE:

POLICYAPPROACHES

FORSUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT

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Policyapproachesforsustainabledevelopment.Rome,FAO.

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ISSN2663-8207

THESTATEOF

AGRICULTURALCOMMODITYMARKETS

THEGEOGRAPHYOFFOODANDAGRICULTURALTRADE: POLICYAPPROACHESFORSUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT

FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations

Rome,2022

|ii|

CONTENTS

FOREWORDv

METHODOLOGYvii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSviii

ABBREVIATIONSANDACRONYMSix

EXECUTIVESUMMARYx

PART1

GLOBALANDREGIONALTRADENETWORKS1

KeyMessages1

Theglobalizationoffoodandagriculturaltrade1

Structuralchangesintheglobalnetworkof

foodandagriculturaltrade8

Fromglobalizationtoregionalization?9

Howresilientisglobalfoodandagricultural

tradetoshockstothesystem?17

PART2

THEFUNDAMENTALDRIVERSOFTRADE

INFOODANDAGRICULTURE25

Keymessages25

Whydocountriestrade?26

Comparativeadvantage,tradepolicies

andtradecosts30

Unpackingtheimpactofcomparative

advantageandtradecosts37

PART3

AGRICULTURALTRADEANDTHEENVIRONMENT49

KeyMessages49

Naturalresources,comparativeadvantage

andtrade50

Theroleoftradeinwaterandlanduse52

Thenegativeexternalitiesoftrade53

Tradeandtheenvironment:Policyresponses57

Theimpactofregionaltradeagreements

ontheenvironment67

PART4

THEAGRICULTURALTRADE

POLICYENVIRONMENT73

Keymessages73

Thelandscapeoftradepolicyinfood

andagriculture73

Thegainsfromtrade:Multilateraltrade

liberalizationandregionaltradeagreements79

Tradeandenvironmentalexternalities:

Multilateralandregionalpolicysolutions86

Sustainabledevelopmentandtheinterplay

betweenmultilateralismandregionalism90

NOTES

92

TABLES

31

2.1

Productivitydifferencesinagricultureand

non-agriculturesectorsbetweenthe10thand

90thpercentileoftheworldincomedistribution,

2019(constant2015USDperworker)

41

2.2

Thestrengthofcomparativeadvantagein

foodandagriculturalmarkets

65

3.1

Classificationofformatsoftheinclusionof

environment-relatedprovisionsinregionaltrade

agreements

70

81

3.2

Selectedexamplesofregionaltrade

agreementswithembeddedreferencesto

voluntarycertificationschemes

4.1

Scenarioassumptions

FIGURES

2

1.1Globalizationpatternsingoodsandservices,

1995–2020

3

1.2

Theevolutionofglobalfoodandagricultural

trade,1995–2020

|iii|

1.3

Averageconnectivitybetweencountriesin

theglobalfoodandagriculturaltradenetwork,

1995–2019

1.4

Theevolutionoffoodandagriculturaltrade

links,1995–2019

1.5

Foodandagriculturaltradeintensity,

1995and2019

1.6

Averageclosenessconnectivitybycountry

group,1995–2019

1.7

Thefoodandagriculturaltradenetworkand

tradehubsin1995and2019

1.8

Thedecentralizationoffoodandagricultural

tradelinks,1995–2019

1.9

Thetendencyoftradingfoodandagricultural

productswithinregionsandincomegroups,

1995–2019

1.10

Regionalfoodandagriculturaltradeclusters,

1995–2019

1.11

Thenumberofregionaltradeagreementsby

country,2022

1.12

Regionaltradeagreementsbetween

countriesbyregions(percent),2022

1.13

Foodandagriculturaltradewithinand

betweenregions,1995and2019

1.14

Distributionofconnectivityacrosscountries,

normalized,1995–2019

1.15

Distributionoftradeintensityacross

countries,normalized,1995–2019

1.16

Distributionofconnectivityacrossproducts

andcountries,normalized,1995–2019

1.17

Connectivityacrossproductsandcountries

atcountrylevel,2019

2.1

Productivityinagricultureandnon-agriculture

sectors,2019

2.2

AgriculturalproductivityandGrossDomestic

Productpercapita,2019

2.3

Appliedtariffsinagriculture,1995–1999and

2016–2020

4

6

7

8

9

10

12

13

14

15

16

18

19

20

21

31

32

35

2.4

Appliedtariffsinagricultureand

manufacturing,average2016–2020

2.5

Bilateraltradeflowsandrelativeprices

2.6

Countrycompetitivenessintheglobalfood

andagriculturalmarket,2018

2.7

Bilateraltradecostsaccordingtocountry

incomelevelclassification,selectedtrade

partnersandaveragecostspercountryincome

classification(advaloremequivalent),2017

2.8

Bilateraltradecostsandintraregional

averages(advaloremequivalent),2017

2.9

Tradeopenness,2018

2.10

Shareofimportsanddomesticproductionin

totalfoodconsumption,2018

3.1

Therelationshipbetweenwaterstressandnet

tradepositions,2018and2019

3.2

Relationshipbetweencroplandandnettrade

positions,2019

3.3

Evolutionofforestareainselectedcountries,

1990–2020

3.4

Agreementswithenvironment-related

provisions,1957–2019

3.5

Selectedagreementswitharangeoftypesof

environment-relatedprovisions

4.1

Multilateralliberalizationandintegration:

EffectsonGDP,foodsecurity,andfoodand

agriculturaltrade

4.2

LiberalizationandintegrationinAfrica:Effects

onGDP,foodsecurity,andfoodandagricultural

trade

4.3

LiberalizationandintegrationinAsiaand

Oceania:EffectsonGDP,foodsecurity,andfood

andagriculturaltrade

4.4

Intra-AfricanexportsandAfricanexportsto

otherregions,foodandagriculturalproducts,

2019

35

38

40

42

44

46

47

51

52

56

62

64

82

83

84

85

|iv|

CONTENTS

BOXES

1.1

Tradenetworkanalysis

1.2

Theroleofregionaltradeagreements

1.3

ThewarinUkraineandtheresilienceofthe

globalfoodandagriculturaltradenetwork

2.1

Absoluteadvantageandcomparative

advantageintrade

2.2

Trade,foodsecurityandnutrition

2.3

Tradecostsandhowtheyaremeasured

2.4

Structuralgravitymodelsandthe

fundamentaldriversoftrade

2.5

Tradeopennessimpacts:Growth,

productivityandinequality

5

14

20

27

28

34

38

45

3.1

Tradeandbiodiversity:Theimportanceof

regulation

3.2

EuropeanCommissionproposalsfor

regulatingdeforestation-freeproductsand

corporatesustainabilityduediligence

3.3

WTOenvironmentalcases:Shrimp-Turtle

andBrazil-RetreadedTyres

4.1

Thepoliticaleconomyofprotectionoffood

andagriculture

4.2

Deeptradeagreements

4.3

Analysingeconomicintegrationandtrade

costreductionscenarios

4.4

TheAfricanContinentalFreeTradeArea

4.5

TheRegionalComprehensiveEconomic

Partnership

55

58

60

75

78

81

85

87

|v|

FOREWORD

Sinceitsfirsteditionin2004,theFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNation’s(FAO)flagshipreportTheStateofAgriculturalCommodityMarkets(SOCO),hasaddressedemergingdevelopments,long-termtrendsandstructuralchangesinfoodandagriculturalmarkets.Whilethisgoalstillstands,andhasbeenreinforcedbynewdevelopments,theworldhaschangedsignificantlyoverthepast18years.

Theglobalfoodandagriculturalmarkethasexpandedsince1995.Whileallnationshavestrengthenedtheirparticipationintheglobalmarket,emergingeconomiesanddevelopingcountriesareplayingagreaterrole.

Trade,originallyviewedaspurelyeconomicexchange,hastodaybecomeanessentialtoolusedtoadvanceeconomic,socialandenvironmentaloutcomes.

TheoutbreakoftheCOVID-19pandemicinearly2020demonstratedhowarobustandwell-integratedglobalagrifoodsystemcouldhelpcountrieswithstandunprecedentedchallenges.Indeed,globaltradeinfoodandagriculturalproductsprovedtoberemarkablyresilienttothedisruptionscausedbythepandemic.Disruptionswerestrikingbutgenerallyshort-lived,provingthatbyworkingtogetherwearestronger.

ThewarinUkraineisaffectingaregionofsignificantimportanceforglobalfoodsecurityandnutrition.Withthesituationprotracting,thereismuchuncertaintyaroundUkraine’sabilitytofarm,harvestandtradecropsinboththecurrentandupcomingagriculturalseasons.Fortrade,theimpendingriskoffragmentingglobalfoodandagriculturalmarketsposesadditionalthreatstoworldfoodsecurity.

Sucheventsemphasizetheneedformorebreakthroughresearch,adeeperunderstandingoftradenetworks,andbetterapproachestofacilitateintegrationandpromote

well-functioningfoodandagriculturalmarkets.Currently,thetradepolicyenvironmentis

characterizedbyadeadlockinmultilateraltradenegotiationsundertheWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)andbyaproliferationofmoreprofoundregionaltradeagreementsthat,inadditiontomarketaccess,aimtopromoteconvergenceindomesticpoliciesandregulationamongtheirsignatories.The2022editionofSOCOexamineshowmutuallyreinforcingmultilateralandregionaleffortscanaddressthesustainabledevelopmentchallengesoftodayandthoseofthefuture.

The2030AgendaforSustainableDevelopmentrecognizesinternationaltradeasanengineforinclusiveeconomicgrowthandpovertyreduction,andasanimportantmeanstoachievetheSustainableDevelopmentGoals.Tradecancontributetobuildingabetterworld,freeofhungerandmalnutrition.

Tradecanmovefoodfromwhereitcanbeproducedatarelativelylowcosttowhereitisneeded.Inthisway,tradecanpromoteworldfoodsecurityandhealthydiets–ithelpsmanycountriesintheworldmeettheirfoodrequirementsintermsofbothquantityanddiversityatlevelsabovethosewhichtheirdomesticproductioncouldsustain.Tradecouldhelpagricultureacrosstheworldtousenaturalresources,suchaslandandwater,moreefficiently.Itcanalsobeanavenuetodiffuseknowledgeworldwide.Globalvaluechainscreateopportunitiesfortechnologytransferandcanpromoteagriculturalproductivityimprovements.Increasingproductivityisimportantfordevelopingcountries.

Thereisnodoubtthatopen,rules-based,predictableandwell-functioningglobalmarketsbenefitallcountries.Intheaggregate,globalmarketsimproveefficiencyinagricultureandofferconsumersawiderchoiceoffoodatmoreaffordableprices.Atthesametime,foodandagriculturaltradecanresultinnegativeenvironmentalorsocialoutcomes.Producingforexportcanresultinmorepollution,deforestationandgreenhousegasemissions.Cheaperfood

|vi|

FOREWORD

importscouldleavesmallholderfarmersindevelopingcountriesunabletocompete.Womenfarmerswhohavelimitedaccesstocapitalandinputscouldbeaffectedthemost.Tradepoliciesalonecannot,andshouldnot,beexpectedtofullyaddressthetrade-offsamongeconomic,environmentalandsocialobjectives.Theymustbecomplementedbyother,moretargetedmeasures.

Howwedecideontradepoliciesandthecomplementarymeasuresthatcanpromotesustainableagrifoodsystemsisalsoimportant.Multilateraltraderulesprovidethemostfundamentalpillarsofglobalfoodandagriculturaltrade.Often,deeperandextensiveregionaltradeagreementsarebuiltonthemultilateralframeworktopromotefurthertradeintegration.Theseagreementscanpromoteregionalfoodandagriculturalvaluechainsbyallowingforadditionalnormsforcooperationandharmonizingfoodregulationandstandards.Theimportanceoftradeagreementsdoesnotonlyemanatefromeconomicgains.Tradeintegrationcanalsoreducetheprobabilityofconflict.Forexample,whenitwascreatedin1958,theEuropeanCommonMarketaspiredtouniteEuropeandpreservepeaceinacontinenttornbysuccessivewars.

Today,globalfoodandagriculturalmarketsaremoreintegratedthanever;however,withtheincreasinglycomplexchallengesweface,

ourprimaryfocusshouldbeonsafeguarding

theessentialandbeneficialfunctionsofthose

markets.Afragmentationofglobalfoodtrade

couldthreatenfoodsecurityinmanypartsof

theworld.Attimesofcrises,exportrestrictions

canaddtoextremepricevolatilityandharm

low-incomefood-deficitcountries,particularly

thosethatdependonglobalmarketsfortheir

foodsecurity.Theycanalsohaveadverse

medium-termimpacts.

SOCO2022examinesmultilateralandregional

approachestoagriculturaltradepolicyinterms

ofagrifoodsystemsresilience,economicgrowth

andenvironmentaloutcomes.Multilateraland

regionaltradeintegrationcanbemutually

supportiveinmakingfoodandagricultural

tradeanengineforgrowth.Butwhenitcomes

toglobalchallengessuchasclimatechange,it

ismultilateralcooperationthatwillbeeffective

withtradepoliciesthathelpclimatemitigation

effortstohaveglobalreach.Globalchallenges

requireglobalsolutions.

Foodandagriculturaltradepoliciesshould

aimtosafeguardglobalfoodsecurity,help

toaddressthetrade-offsbetweeneconomic

andenvironmentalobjectives,andstrengthen

theresilienceoftheglobalagrifoodsystemto

shocks,suchasconflicts,pandemicsandextreme

weather.Thisreportofferstimelyandinvaluable

insightsforpolicymakersandotherkeyactorsto

assistthemintakingconcreteactions.

QuDongyu

FAODirector-General

|vii|

METHODOLOGY

WorkonTheStateofAgriculturalCommodityMarkets2022(SOCO2022)beganinJanuary2021.Theresearchandwritingteam,assembledatthattime,wascomposedofsixstaffmembersoftheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)whowereresponsibleforthedataanalysis,researchandwritingofthereport.

FAOconductedaneconometricmodellingexercisetoanalysethestatisticalrelationshipbetweenbilateraltradeflows,relativepricesandgeographicbarriers,andtoidentifythekeydriversoftradesuchasabsoluteadvantage,comparativeadvantageandtradecosts.Inaddition,agroupofexternalexpertswereengagedtosupportthewritingteamindevelopingthiseditionofthereport.Theexternalexpertsperformedtwoadditionalanalyticalexercises:atradenetworkanalysis,andacomputablegeneralequilibriummodelsimulationtoestimatetheeffectsofdifferentliberalizationandtradecostreductionscenarios.Anexternalexpertalsoproducedacriticalreviewoftheimpactsoftradeontheenvironment.

InApril2022,themanuscriptwassenttoexternalreviewers,whoprovidedsubstantivecommentsandadviceontheanalysisofthereport.ThereportwasalsoreviewedbymultipleexpertsacrossFAO,whoprovidedvaluablecomments.

ThereportwasreviewedanddiscussedbythemanagementteamoftheFAOEconomicandSocialDevelopmentStreaminApril2022.ThecontentandfindingsofSOCO2022willbepresentedtotheCommitteeonCommodityProblems(CCP)atitsmeetinginJuly2022.

|viii|

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

TheStateofAgriculturalCommodityMarkets2022(SOCO2022)waspreparedbyamultidisciplinaryteamoftheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)underthedirectionofBoubakerBen-Belhassen,DirectorofFAO’sMarketsandTradeDivision,andGeorgeRapsomanikis,SeniorEconomistandEditorofSOCO2022.OverallguidancewasprovidedbyMáximoToreroCullen,FAOChiefEconomist,andbythemanagementteamoftheEconomicandSocialDevelopmentStream.

ResearchandWritingTeam

TheresearchandwritingteamattheFAOMarketsandTradeDivisionwascomposedof:AndreaZimmermann,ClarissaRoncatoBaldin,CosimoAvesani,EdonaDervisholli,GeorgeRapsomanikis,HusamAttaallahandMa?gorzataKarolinaKoz?owska.

ExternalReviewers

Thewritingteamreceivedvaluablecommentsfromexternalreviewers,suchasCarmelCahill(formerDeputyDirectorforTradeandAgriculture,OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment),StefanoSchiavo(UniversityofTrento),ValeriaPi?eiro(InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute[IFPRI])andYaghoobJafari(UniversityofBonn).

InternalReviewers

Thewritingteamisgratefulforthevaluablecommentsreceivedfromthefollowingreviewers:AikateriniKavallari,AndreCroppenstedt,AngélicaJácomeDaza,BenjaminDavis,BrunoCammaert,CarolineMerle,DavidedelPrete,EkaterinaKrivonos,ElMamounAmrouk,EmilianoMagrini,EwaldRametsteiner,GalaDahlet,GeorgiosMermigkas,GuenterHemrich,JakobRauschendorfer,JamieMorrison,JippeHoogeveen,LaurenPhillips,LourdesOrlando,LynnetteNeufeld,MarcoSánchezCantillo,MáximoToreroCullen,MonikaTothova,NancyAburto,PieroConforti,SergioRenéAraujoEncisoand

TomislavIvancic.

Contributors

Thefollowingauthorscontributedtechnicalbackgroundpapersf