煙草行業(yè)的外在分析

TheExternalEnvironment:Opportunities,Threats,andIndustryCompetition,andCompetitorAnalysisMichaelA.HittR.DuaneIrelandRobertE.HoskissonChapter21?2003SouthwesternPublishingCompany第一頁，共四十六頁。StrategyImplementationChapter13StrategicEntrepreneurshipChapter11OrganizationalStructureandControlsChapter10CorporateGovernanceChapter12StrategicLeadershipStrategyFormulationChapter6Corporate-LevelStrategyChapter9CooperativeStrategyChapter5CompetitiveRivalryandCompetitiveDynamicsChapter8InternationalStrategyChapter4Business-LevelStrategyChapter7AcquisitionandRestructuringStrategiesStrategicCompetitivenessAbove-AverageReturnsStrategicIntentStrategicMissionChapter2TheExternalEnvironmentChapter3TheInternalEnvironmentTheStrategicManagementProcessFeedbackStrategicInputsStrategicActionsStrategicOutcomes2第二頁，共四十六頁。GeneralEnvironmentGeneralEnvironmentGeneralEnvironmentSocioculturalGlobalTechnologicalPolitical/LegalDemographicEconomicTheExternalEnvironmentIndustryEnvironmentThreatofnewentrantsPowerofsuppliersPowerofbuyersProductsubstitutesIntensityofrivalryCompetitorEnvironment總體環(huán)境產(chǎn)業(yè)環(huán)境競爭者環(huán)境3第三頁，共四十六頁。ExternalEnvironmentalAnalysisAcontinuousprocesswhichincludesScanning掃瞄:IdentifyingearlysignalsofenvironmentalchangesandtrendsMonitoring監(jiān)測:DetectingmeaningthroughongoingobservationsofenvironmentalchangesandtrendsForecasting預(yù)測:DevelopingprojectionsofanticipatedoutcomesbasedonmonitoredchangesandtrendsAssessing評價(jià):Determiningthetimingandimportanceofenvironmentalchangesandtrendsforfirms’strategiesandtheirmanagement4第四頁，共四十六頁。ExternalEnvironmentalAnalysisStrategicIntentStrategicMissionTheExternalEnvironmentAnalysisofgeneralenvironmentAnalysisofindustryenvironmentAnalysisofcompetitorenvironmentTheExternalEnvironment5第五頁，共四十六頁。GeneralEnvironmentSocioculturalsegment社會文化面WomenintheworkplaceWorkforcediversity勞動力多元化Attitudesaboutqualityofworklife工作生活素質(zhì)ConcernsaboutenvironmentShiftsinworkandcareerpreferencesShiftsinproductandservicepreferences6第六頁，共四十六頁。Economicsegment經(jīng)濟(jì)面GeneralEnvironmentInflationratesInterestratesTradedeficitsorsurplusesBudgetdeficitsorsurplusesPersonalsavingsrateBusinesssavingsratesGrossdomesticproduct7第七頁，共四十六頁。GeneralEnvironmentPolitical/LegalSegment政治/法律面Antitrustlaws(公平交易法)TaxationlawsDeregulationphilosophies管制解除(鬆綁)理念LabortraininglawsEducationalphilosophiesandpolicies8第八頁，共四十六頁。GeneralEnvironmentTechnologicalSegment科技面ProductinnovationsApplicationsofknowledgeFocusofprivateandgovernment-supportedR&DexpendituresNewcommunicationtechnologies9第九頁，共四十六頁。GeneralEnvironmentGlobalSegment全球面ImportantpoliticaleventsCriticalglobalmarketsNewlyindustrializecountriesDifferentculturalandinstitutionalattributes10第十頁，共四十六頁。GeneralEnvironmentDemographicSegment人口統(tǒng)計(jì)面PopulationsizeAgestructureGeographicdistributionEthnicmixIncomedistribution11第十一頁，共四十六頁。IndustryEnvironmentAsetoffactorsthatdirectlyinfluencesacompanyanditscompetitiveactionsandresponses.Interactionamongthesefactorsdetermineanindustry’sprofitpotential.ThreatofnewentrantsPowerofsuppliersPowerofbuyersProductsubstitutesIntensityofrivalry12第十二頁，共四十六頁。FiveForcesModelofCompetitionIdentifycurrentandpotentialcompetitorsanddeterminewhichfirmsservethem.Conductcompetitiveanalysis.Recognizethatsuppliersandbuyerscanbecomecompetitors.Recognizethatproducersofpotentialsubstitutesmaybecomecompetitors.13第十三頁，共四十六頁。ThreatofNewEntrantsBargainingPowerofSuppliersBargainingPowerofBuyersThreatofSubstituteProductsRivalryAmongCompetingFirmsFiveForcesModelofCompetitionFiveForcesofCompetition14第十四頁，共四十六頁。ThreatofNewEntrantsBarrierstoentryEconomiesofscaleProductdifferentiationCapitalrequirementsSwitchingcosts轉(zhuǎn)換成本AccesstodistributionchannelsCostdisadvantagesindependentofscale無關(guān)規(guī)模之成本優(yōu)勢GovernmentpolicyExpectedretaliation預(yù)期的報(bào)復(fù)行動15第十五頁，共四十六頁。產(chǎn)業(yè)生命週期與進(jìn)入障礙進(jìn)入障礙萌芽期成長期成長消退期成熟期衰退期科技高至中中至低低低低規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)低低至中中至高中至高中至高品牌忠誠低低至中中至高中至高中至高產(chǎn)業(yè)生命週期進(jìn)入障礙來源需求高度成長需求成長緩慢與停滯需求衰退16第十六頁，共四十六頁。BargainingPowerofSuppliersAsuppliergroupispowerfulwhen:itisdominatedbyafewlargecompaniessatisfactorysubstituteproductsarenotavailabletoindustryfirmsindustryfirmsarenotasignificantcustomerforthesuppliergroupsuppliers’goodsarecriticaltobuyers’marketplacesuccesseffectivenessofsuppliers’productshascreatedhighswitchingcostssuppliersareacrediblethreattointegrateforwardintothebuyers’industry向前(向下)整合17第十七頁，共四十六頁。BargainingPowerofBuyersBuyers(customers)arepowerfulwhen:theypurchasealargeportionofanindustry’stotaloutputthesalesoftheproductbeingpurchasedaccountforasignificantportionoftheseller’sannualrevenuestheycouldeasilyswitchtoanotherproducttheindustry’sproductsareundifferentiatedorstandardized,andbuyersposeacrediblethreatiftheyweretointegratebackwardintotheseller’sindustry向後(向上)整合18第十八頁，共四十六頁。ThreatofSubstituteProductsProductsubstitutesarestrongthreatwhen:customersfacefewswitchingcostssubstituteproduct’spriceislower(廠商的財(cái)力)substituteproduct’squalityandperformancecapabilitiesareequaltoorgreaterthanthoseofthecompetingproduct19第十九頁，共四十六頁。IntensityofRivalryIntensityofrivalryisstrongerwhencompetitors:arenumerousorequallybalancedexperienceslowindustrygrowth(產(chǎn)業(yè)生命週期)havehighfixedcostsorhighstoragecostslackdifferentiationorlowswitchingcostsexperiencehighstrategicstakes策略利害關(guān)係havehighexitbarriers20第二十頁，共四十六頁。產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)連續(xù)帶分散型產(chǎn)業(yè)中企業(yè)家數(shù)眾多並無相對較大且足以主導(dǎo)市場的企業(yè)進(jìn)入障礙低產(chǎn)品不易差異化價(jià)格戰(zhàn)容易形成產(chǎn)業(yè)繁榮與衰退時(shí)期不斷更替結(jié)合型企業(yè)家數(shù)甚少(寡占)或只有一家(獨(dú)占)每一家企業(yè)都有主宰市場的力量企業(yè)間高度相互依存常出現(xiàn)價(jià)格領(lǐng)導(dǎo)行為進(jìn)行非價(jià)格戰(zhàn)爭謹(jǐn)慎採取價(jià)格戰(zhàn)企業(yè)家數(shù)眾多只有一家企業(yè)21第二十一頁，共四十六頁。同業(yè)競爭程度越大—平均獲利越低廠商間的合作可以使大家獲得超額利潤合作關(guān)係的破壞--個(gè)別企業(yè)在產(chǎn)業(yè)合作下有暗中定價(jià)的機(jī)會市場的廠商家數(shù)越少,勾結(jié)(合作)可能性越高集中度(concentrationratio)—產(chǎn)業(yè)內(nèi)廠商的數(shù)目與相對權(quán)力CR4—產(chǎn)業(yè)中最大四家廠商銷售額或僱用員工人數(shù)佔(zhàn)全部產(chǎn)業(yè)的比率競爭廠商規(guī)模愈平均,敵對關(guān)係愈激烈(但是競爭行動與反應(yīng)越謹(jǐn)慎)如果市場上三家廠商的市場站業(yè)率分別為0.5,0.25,0.25規(guī)模分配指數(shù)為10000x(0.5x0.5+0.25x0.25+0.25x0.25)=3750指數(shù)愈大廠商間愈能合作22第二十二頁，共四十六頁。同業(yè)競爭程度越大—平均獲利越低廠商的同質(zhì)性--在其他條件不變下,廠商同質(zhì)性愈高愈能合作資產(chǎn)特定性(專屬性)愈高時(shí)增加退出市場的障礙,使產(chǎn)業(yè)敵對狀態(tài)升高23第二十三頁，共四十六頁?，F(xiàn)有敵對狀態(tài)與產(chǎn)業(yè)生命週期演化競爭態(tài)勢萌芽期成長期成長消退期成熟期衰退期價(jià)格競爭低低高低至高高品牌忠誠低低中至高高高整體低低高中至高高產(chǎn)業(yè)生命週期競爭焦點(diǎn)24第二十四頁，共四十六頁。HighExitBarriersCommonexitbarriersinclude:specializedassets(assetswithvalueslinkedtoaparticularbusinessorlocation)fixedcostsofexitsuchaslaboragreementsstrategicinterrelationships(relationshipsofmutualdependencebetweenonebusinessandotherpartsofacompany’soperation,suchassharedfacilitiesandaccesstofinancialmarkets)emotionalbarriers(careerconcerns,loyaltytoemployees,etc.)governmentandsocialrestrictions25第二十五頁，共四十六頁。進(jìn)入障礙與退出障礙對企業(yè)獲利的影響高而具風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

的獲利退出障礙高低高低低而穩(wěn)定

的獲利高而穩(wěn)定

的獲利低而具風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

的獲利進(jìn)入障礙26第二十六頁，共四十六頁。需求狀況與退出障礙對企業(yè)獲利的影響出現(xiàn)價(jià)格領(lǐng)導(dǎo)有機(jī)會提高價(jià)格與擴(kuò)大市場需求狀況低高需求成長需求降低產(chǎn)能過剩高度價(jià)格戰(zhàn)的威脅產(chǎn)能過剩價(jià)格戰(zhàn)中度威脅出現(xiàn)價(jià)格領(lǐng)導(dǎo)擴(kuò)大市場規(guī)模退出障礙27第二十七頁，共四十六頁。StrategicGroups策略性群組Strategicgroup:agroupoffirmsinanindustryfollowingthesameorsimilarstrategyalongthesamestrategicdimensions.Thestrategyfollowedbyastrategicgroupdiffersfromstrategiesbeingimplementedbyothercompaniesintheindustry.28第二十八頁，共四十六頁。策略性群體分析產(chǎn)業(yè)中最主要的競爭對象—擁有相同資產(chǎn)且採取向同策略的廠商群組產(chǎn)業(yè)中何時(shí)會出現(xiàn)策略性群體?不同群組具有不同的競爭態(tài)勢同一群組內(nèi)者為直接競爭者移動障礙分析進(jìn)入障礙退出障礙高品質(zhì)低品質(zhì)低價(jià)位高價(jià)位退出障礙進(jìn)入障礙29第二十九頁，共四十六頁。組織間策略差異的肇因產(chǎn)業(yè)萌芽初期,環(huán)境充滿不確定性消費(fèi)者不知自己的需求與偏好廠商根據(jù)自己對未來趨勢的判斷,嘗試各種不同的生產(chǎn)模式組織間逐漸出現(xiàn)策略的差異性認(rèn)為顧客需求多樣化者—積極開發(fā)多元化產(chǎn)品強(qiáng)調(diào)規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)者,集中大量生產(chǎn)一種產(chǎn)品企業(yè)在產(chǎn)業(yè)形成初期的投資,成為後期選擇策略的資產(chǎn)產(chǎn)業(yè)景況惡化會加大企業(yè)間的策略差異30第三十頁，共四十六頁。CompetitorEnvironmentCompetitorintelligence

istheethicalgatheringofneededinformationanddataaboutcompetitors’objectives,strategies,assumptions,andcapabilitieswhatdrivesthecompetitorasshownbyitsfutureobjectiveswhatthecompetitorisdoingandcandoasrevealedbyitscurrentstrategyWhatthecompetitorbelievesaboutitselfandtheindustry,asshownbyitsassumptionsWhatthethecompetitormaybeabletodo,asshownbyitscapabilities31第三十一頁，共四十六頁。CompetitorAnalysisFutureObjectives:FutureobjectivesHowdoourgoalscomparewithourcompetitors’goals?Wherewilltheemphasisbeplacedinthefuture?Whatistheattitudetowardrisk?32第三十二頁，共四十六頁。CompetitorAnalysisCurrentstrategyCurrentStrategy:FutureobjectivesHowarewecurrentlycompeting?Doesthisstrategysupportchangesinthecompetitivestructure?33第三十三頁，共四十六頁。CompetitorAnalysisAssumptionsCurrentstrategyFutureobjectivesAssumptions:Doweassumethefuturewillbevolatile?Areweoperatingunderastatusquo?Whatassumptionsdoourcompetitorsholdabouttheindustryandthemselves?34第三十四頁，共四十六頁。CompetitorAnalysisCapabilitiesAssumptionsCurrentstrategyFutureobjectivesCapabilities:Whatareourstrengthsandweaknesses?Howdoweratecomparedtoourcompetitors?35第三十五頁，共四十六頁。CompetitorAnalysisCapabilitiesAssumptionsCurrentstrategyFutureobjectivesResponseResponse:Whatwillourcompetitorsdointhefuture?Wheredoweholdanadvantageoverourcompetitors?Howwillthischangeourrelationshipwithourcompetitors?36第三十六頁，共四十六頁。有關(guān)競爭者的問題顧客競爭者的顧客在何處?誰是競爭者主要顧客?行銷採用何種定價(jià)/產(chǎn)品或行銷策略?配銷如何配銷產(chǎn)品?銷售銷售人力的規(guī)模有多大?銷售條件與狀況為何?廣告在何處廣告?廣告支出水準(zhǔn)?財(cái)務(wù)獲利狀況?固定成本有多高?37第三十七頁，共四十六頁。有關(guān)競爭者的問題生產(chǎn)與作業(yè)生產(chǎn)規(guī)模/地點(diǎn)與產(chǎn)能?產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)效率水準(zhǔn)?組織組織結(jié)構(gòu)型態(tài)?管理分權(quán)/集權(quán)程度?由誰制定重大決策?研究與發(fā)展擁有哪些專利與商標(biāo)?正著手開發(fā)哪些新產(chǎn)品?研發(fā)預(yù)算支出水準(zhǔn)?策略性計(jì)畫短/長期計(jì)畫?將專注於核心事業(yè)或有計(jì)畫擴(kuò)充其他市場?是否企圖收購其他事業(yè)?38第三十八頁，共四十六頁。有關(guān)競爭者的問題主要競爭者的優(yōu)勢?主要競爭者的劣勢?主要競爭者的目標(biāo)與策略?主要競爭者對當(dāng)前總體與產(chǎn)業(yè)環(huán)境因素最可能如何回應(yīng)?我們的策略對主要競爭者的傷害程度?相對於主要競爭者,我們的產(chǎn)品與服務(wù)如何定位?新企業(yè)進(jìn)入與離開產(chǎn)業(yè)的難易程度?在產(chǎn)業(yè)中造成彼此目前競爭地位的關(guān)鍵性因素為何?主要競爭者近來銷售地位與獲利水準(zhǔn)的變化與原因?39第三十九頁，共四十六頁。外部因素評估矩陣Externalfactorevaluationmatrix,EFE步驟1:列出外部稽核所確認(rèn)的主要因素10-20個(gè),先列機(jī)會後列威脅步驟2:為每個(gè)因素分派權(quán)數(shù)權(quán)數(shù)代表因素對成功的重要程度,通常機(jī)會的權(quán)數(shù)高於威脅,最高1.0表示非常重要,最低0.0表示非常不重要步驟3:評定企業(yè)回應(yīng)每個(gè)因素的能力分?jǐn)?shù)最高4表示回應(yīng)能力強(qiáng),最低表示回應(yīng)能力弱評分對象是企業(yè)與企業(yè)策略的有效性40第四十頁，共四十六頁。外部因素評估矩陣步驟4計(jì)算加權(quán)分?jǐn)?shù)權(quán)數(shù)X評分步驟5加總每個(gè)因素的加權(quán)分?jǐn)?shù)最高為4,表示企業(yè)對外部的機(jī)會與威脅回應(yīng)能力強(qiáng),最低為1表示企業(yè)回應(yīng)能力差,中數(shù)為2.541第四十一頁，共四十六頁。外部因素評估矩陣範(fàn)例--無煙煙草製造公司

機(jī)會

權(quán)重

評分

加權(quán)分?jǐn)?shù)全球市場尚未打開

0.15

1

0.15因公開禁煙而增加的需求

0.05

3

0.15龐大網(wǎng)路廣告的增加

0.05

1

0.05prinkerton在折扣香煙市場的領(lǐng)先

0.15

4

0.60更多禁煙的壓力

0.10

3

0.30

威脅

權(quán)重評分加權(quán)分?jǐn)?shù)反對香煙產(chǎn)業(yè)的法令規(guī)定

0.10

2

0.20生產(chǎn)上限

0.05

3

0.15無煙香煙市場集中於美國西南

0.05

2

0.10來自FDA的不良曝光

0.10

2

0.20Clinton政府的管制增加

0.20

1

0.20總和1.00