從財(cái)報(bào)看銀行股配置邏輯的變化

CONTENTS目錄經(jīng)營概況：盈利增速回落至近年低位資產(chǎn)負(fù)債：積極擴(kuò)表息差定價(jià)：底部運(yùn)行非息業(yè)務(wù)：恢復(fù)進(jìn)行時(shí)資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量：夯實(shí)與穩(wěn)定投資建議：板塊配置當(dāng)時(shí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素21.1

財(cái)務(wù)概況：利潤增速回落至近年最低位34家A股上市銀行營收及盈利累計(jì)增速數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信證券研究部營收增速底部運(yùn)行：近兩個(gè)季度上市銀行營業(yè)收入增速分別為0.7

/1.4歸母凈利潤增速走低：近兩個(gè)季度上市銀行歸母凈利潤增速分別為7.6

/2.36.07.77.95.64.92.80.71.412.913.612.68.77.58.07.62.30.02.0 3.74.06.0

4.516.014.012.010.08.021Q121Q221Q321Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1營業(yè)收入YoY 歸母凈利潤YoY31.2

盈利拆分：凈息、中收與撥備相對拖累，一季度其他非息正貢獻(xiàn)4上市銀行主要盈利要素同比增長情況（累計(jì)）數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信證券研究部利息凈收入增速繼續(xù)下行：貸款重定價(jià)后置因素中間業(yè)務(wù)表現(xiàn)仍處修復(fù)期：主要受資本市場和財(cái)富市場波動(dòng)影響其他非息收入“先抑后揚(yáng)”：債券市場“V”型走勢一季度撥備支撐作用有所收斂：信貸投放提速帶來的撥備計(jì)提前置21Q422Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1利息凈收入，YoY5.0%5.1%4.5%4.0%2.7%-1.8%手續(xù)費(fèi)及傭金凈收入，YoY6.4%3.5%0.7%-0.7%-2.9%-4.2%其他非息收入，YoY31.6%11.4%12.6%0.6%-6.8%44.0%營業(yè)收入，YoY7.9%5.6%4.9%2.8%0.7%1.4%業(yè)務(wù)及管理費(fèi)，YoY13.5%7.1%8.4%7.8%4.6%5.2%資產(chǎn)減值損失，YoY-4.1%-0.8%-1.0%-6.7%-12.2%-6.3%所得稅，YoY12.0%-1.9%-5.3%-6.1%-7.8%-4.0%歸母凈利潤，YoY12.6%8.7%7.5%8.0%7.6%2.3%1.3

各類銀行表現(xiàn)：大行好于預(yù)期，股份行偏弱，區(qū)域行占優(yōu)大型銀行收入表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于盈利表現(xiàn)股份行收入與盈利相對較為乏力城農(nóng)商行業(yè)績表現(xiàn)相對占優(yōu)數(shù)據(jù)來源：各公司財(cái)報(bào)，中信證券研究部各類上市銀行營業(yè)收入累計(jì)同比增速各類上市銀行歸母凈利潤累計(jì)同比增速-4.00-2.000.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0022Q2 22Q322Q423Q1大銀行 股份行 城商行 農(nóng)商行2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%0.00%22Q2 22Q3數(shù)據(jù)來源：各公司財(cái)報(bào)，中信證券研究部22Q423Q1大銀行 股份行 城商行 農(nóng)商行561.4

個(gè)體銀行：盈利增速再分化經(jīng)營區(qū)位景氣、業(yè)務(wù)具備特色、擴(kuò)表速度較快的銀行，盈利表現(xiàn)更為占優(yōu)營業(yè)收入累計(jì)，YoY歸母凈利潤累計(jì)，YoY22Q222Q322Q423Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1工商銀行4.2%-0.1%-2.6%-1.1%4.9%5.6%3.5%0.0%建設(shè)銀行4.7%1.0%-0.2%1.0%5.4%6.5%7.1%0.0%農(nóng)業(yè)銀行5.9%3.6%0.7%2.2%5.5%5.8%7.4%1.8%中國銀行3.4%2.6%2.1%11.6%6.3%5.8%5.0%0.5%交通銀行7.1%5.1%1.3%5.5%4.8%5.5%5.2%5.6%郵儲銀行10.0%7.8%5.1%3.5%14.9%14.5%11.9%5.2%大銀行5.2%2.4%0.3%3.0%6.0%6.5%6.0%1.2%中信銀行2.7%3.4%3.3%-4.9%12.0%12.8%11.6%10.3%招商銀行6.1%5.3%4.1%-1.5%13.5%14.2%15.1%7.8%民生銀行-15.5%-16.9%-15.6%0.4%-7.2%-4.8%2.6%3.7%興業(yè)銀行6.3%4.1%0.5%-6.7%11.9%12.1%10.5%-8.9%浦發(fā)銀行1.3%0.1%-1.2%-3.8%1.1%-2.6%-3.5%-18.3%光大銀行1.8%0.4%-0.7%-1.6%3.8%4.3%3.2%5.3%華夏銀行0.7%0.6%-2.2%-3.7%5.0%5.4%6.4%4.1%平安銀行8.7%8.7%6.2%-2.4%25.6%25.8%25.3%13.6%浙商銀行22.5%18.1%12.1%2.5%1.8%9.1%7.7%9.9%股份行2.8%1.9%0.4%-2.9%8.6%9.4%9.8%1.5%南京銀行16.3%16.1%9.0%5.5%20.1%21.3%16.1%8.2%寧波銀行17.6%15.2%9.7%8.5%18.4%20.2%18.1%15.3%北京銀行1.7%3.2%0.0%-6.9%7.9%6.5%11.4%1.9%江蘇銀行14.2%14.9%10.7%10.3%31.2%31.3%28.9%24.8%貴陽銀行9.5%10.5%4.3%3.1%0.5%0.9%1.0%1.1%杭州銀行16.3%16.5%12.2%7.5%31.7%31.8%26.1%28.1%上海銀行0.9%0.5%-5.5%-7.1%3.2%3.1%1.1%3.2%營業(yè)收入累計(jì)，YoY歸母凈利潤累計(jì)，YoY22Q222Q322Q423Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1成都銀行17.0%16.1%13.1%9.7%31.5%31.6%28.2%17.5%鄭州銀行8.9%12.3%2.0%-3.0%3.1%2.1%-24.9%1.9%長沙銀行8.7%10.2%9.6%12.9%2.9%6.2%8.0%8.7%青島銀行16.6%16.3%4.6%15.5%12.3%7.3%5.5%15.8%西安銀行-8.5%-8.4%-8.8%17.0%-13.4%-12.4%-13.5%8.2%蘇州銀行8.0%11.5%8.6%5.3%25.1%25.9%26.1%20.8%廈門銀行18.2%15.4%10.9%5.0%15.1%19.0%15.6%15.0%重慶銀行-7.0%-4.7%-7.2%1.5%4.7%4.2%4.4%2.7%齊魯銀行19.1%17.2%8.8%8.7%18.0%19.9%18.2%12.3%蘭州銀行-3.0%-5.0%-4.9%12.0%10.5%7.4%10.7%10.5%城商行9.5%9.8%5.0%4.0%14.7%15.2%13.7%11.7%江陰銀行26.0%21.9%12.3%4.0%22.1%22.4%26.9%12.8%無錫銀行6.7%6.6%3.0%3.6%30.3%20.7%26.7%23.2%常熟銀行18.9%18.6%15.1%13.3%20.0%25.2%25.4%20.6%蘇農(nóng)銀行6.4%6.7%5.3%1.4%20.9%20.6%29.4%16.0%張家港行5.7%7.0%4.6%-0.6%27.8%30.1%29.0%17.4%紫金銀行2.7%2.0%0.1%1.5%10.1%7.2%5.6%5.5%青農(nóng)商行-3.1%-4.9%-3.4%7.2%5.1%2.4%-24.4%5.6%渝農(nóng)商行1.0%-2.2%-6.0%-3.3%11.3%5.6%7.5%9.2%瑞豐銀行13.4%10.6%6.5%8.1%20.4%21.3%20.2%16.2%滬農(nóng)商行7.0%7.6%6.1%7.5%14.3%17.1%13.2%12.4%農(nóng)商行5.4%4.1%1.6%3.5%14.4%13.0%11.1%11.8%合計(jì)4.9%2.8%0.7%1.4%7.5%8.0%7.6%2.3%數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信證券研究部上市銀行主要盈利要素同比增長情況（累計(jì)）1.5

小結(jié)盈利增速回落至近年最低位置4Q22與1Q23，A股上市銀行營業(yè)收入增速分別為0.7

/1.4歸母凈利潤增速分別為7.6

/2.3

，為2020年中以來的最低水平基本面要素景氣低位上年度LPR降息帶來貸款重定價(jià)的滯后影響，1Q23利息凈收入同比-1.8銀行信貸投放提速帶來當(dāng)期減值準(zhǔn)備的計(jì)提增加，一季度資產(chǎn)減值同比增速較上年全年提高5.9pct資本市場波動(dòng)對中間業(yè)務(wù)仍有擾動(dòng)，當(dāng)季手續(xù)費(fèi)及傭金凈收入同比-4.2銀行個(gè)體分化再走擴(kuò)優(yōu)質(zhì)區(qū)域+特色經(jīng)營的銀行個(gè)體經(jīng)營業(yè)績表現(xiàn)更優(yōu)行業(yè)業(yè)績修復(fù)可期伴隨著貸款重定價(jià)因素的一次性體現(xiàn)，以及信貸投放回歸常態(tài)后的減值計(jì)提常態(tài)化，預(yù)計(jì)年內(nèi)后續(xù)季度行業(yè)營收與盈利增速都有望呈現(xiàn)修復(fù)趨勢7CONTENTS目錄經(jīng)營概況：盈利增速回落至近年低位資產(chǎn)負(fù)債：積極擴(kuò)表息差定價(jià)：底部運(yùn)行非息業(yè)務(wù)：恢復(fù)進(jìn)行時(shí)資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量：夯實(shí)與穩(wěn)定投資建議：板塊配置當(dāng)時(shí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素82.1.1

資產(chǎn)端：一季度銀行業(yè)資產(chǎn)擴(kuò)張積極銀行業(yè)資產(chǎn)擴(kuò)張積極：上市銀行2023Q1末總資產(chǎn)季度環(huán)比+5.6%（2022Q1末季度環(huán)比+4.8%）上市銀行總資產(chǎn)季度環(huán)比增速5.5%2.1%1.8%0.6%4.0%1.8%0.8%1.1%4.8%3.0%1.8%1.4%5.6%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4數(shù)據(jù)來源：各公司財(cái)報(bào)，中信證券研究部

注：由于瑞豐銀行、滬農(nóng)商行上市前部分季度盈利數(shù)據(jù)缺失，上述計(jì)算中對以上兩家銀行予以剔除2020 2021 2022 20239102.1.2

資產(chǎn)端：各類生息資產(chǎn)均有增長，信貸貢獻(xiàn)主要增量上市銀行2023Q1末貸款、投資、同業(yè)資產(chǎn)季度環(huán)比+5.4%/+3.7%/+18.0%（2022Q1末季度環(huán)比+4.7%/+2.7%/+14.4%）一季度上市銀行各類生息資產(chǎn)均有增長，其中信貸投放貢獻(xiàn)主要增量，同比多增近1.7萬億元2023Q1末投資資產(chǎn)、同業(yè)資產(chǎn)同比分別多增約9,300億元/8,400億元，反映了當(dāng)季較為充裕的流動(dòng)性環(huán)境上市銀行一季度信貸投放高景氣一季度銀行各類生息資產(chǎn)均有增長(40,000)(20,000)020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,00021Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1數(shù)據(jù)來源：各公司財(cái)報(bào)，中信證券研究部

注：由于瑞豐銀行、滬農(nóng)商行上市前部分季度盈利數(shù)據(jù)缺失，上述計(jì)算中對以上兩家銀行予以剔除貸款 投資 同業(yè)（億元）-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%21Q1

21Q2

21Q3

21Q4

22Q1

22Q2

22Q3

22Q4

23Q1貸款

QoQ 投資

QoQ 同業(yè)

QoQ數(shù)據(jù)來源：各公司財(cái)報(bào)，中信證券研究部

注：由于瑞豐銀行、滬農(nóng)商行上市前部分季度盈利數(shù)據(jù)缺失，上述計(jì)算中對以上兩家銀行予以剔除112.1.3

資產(chǎn)端：大行與高景氣區(qū)域行表現(xiàn)更為積極分銀行類型來看，大行與農(nóng)商行資產(chǎn)擴(kuò)張更為積極2023Q1末，大行、股份行、城商和農(nóng)商行總資產(chǎn)季度環(huán)比分別+6.3

/+4.0

/+4.7

/+6.02022Q12022H2022Q32022N2023Q1大銀行5.4%3.7%2.3%1.0%6.3%股份行3.4%1.4%0.5%2.0%4.0%城商行5.0%2.7%1.7%2.9%4.7%農(nóng)商行3.8%1.2%1.5%2.1%6.0%各類型上市銀行總資產(chǎn)季度環(huán)比增長情況數(shù)據(jù)來源：各公司財(cái)報(bào)，中信證券研究部上市銀行總資產(chǎn)季度環(huán)比增長情況22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q122Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1工商銀行6.0%3.9%2.1%0.1%6.1%上海銀行3.9%2.1%2.4%-0.1%3.2%建設(shè)銀行5.8%5.2%1.8%0.9%6.8%成都銀行9.0%6.7%1.5%1.1%7.4%農(nóng)業(yè)銀行6.3%5.0%4.3%0.3%8.5%鄭州銀行0.0%1.6%2.0%-0.8%2.5%中國銀行2.8%2.2%2.1%1.0%5.1%長沙銀行3.8%4.0%2.2%3.0%5.5%交通銀行5.6%2.1%0.9%2.4%5.1%青島銀行1.0%1.7%-1.0%-0.3%4.3%郵儲銀行5.5%1.1%0.7%4.0%4.5%西安銀行-1.5%3.6%3.0%11.5%2.5%大銀行5.4%3.7%2.3%1.0%6.3%蘇州銀行9.7%1.7%0.8%2.9%5.8%中信銀行2.4%0.5%4.2%-0.9%2.8%廈門銀行4.3%2.3%3.4%2.1%-1.6%招商銀行1.8%3.3%-0.2%4.4%3.6%重慶銀行3.9%3.2%1.0%2.1%3.6%民生銀行2.9%2.3%-2.5%1.7%4.8%齊魯銀行4.5%4.2%3.9%3.1%4.5%興業(yè)銀行2.6%1.8%1.2%2.0%6.0%蘭州銀行3.1%4.9%0.9%-0.3%6.0%浦發(fā)銀行3.5%1.0%-0.9%3.3%1.8%城商行5.0%2.7%1.7%2.9%4.7%光大銀行5.8%0.2%0.1%0.6%6.3%江陰銀行3.1%1.4%2.0%3.3%4.4%華夏銀行4.0%0.5%0.0%1.5%3.3%無錫銀行3.1%0.1%0.9%0.7%7.0%平安銀行4.0%-0.2%1.7%2.4%2.5%常熟銀行9.0%2.3%3.3%1.3%10.1%浙商銀行8.5%1.6%0.9%3.1%4.8%蘇農(nóng)銀行3.3%3.9%3.5%2.3%5.7%股份行3.4%1.4%0.5%2.0%4.0%張家港行6.5%1.3%4.1%1.5%3.4%南京銀行7.6%1.6%1.7%5.9%4.3%紫金銀行10.3%-0.2%-1.9%0.7%13.6%寧波銀行10.1%0.9%3.4%2.2%6.7%青農(nóng)商行2.8%0.4%-1.8%-0.3%6.5%北京銀行2.6%1.9%-0.5%6.4%3.4%渝農(nóng)商行3.4%0.5%1.1%1.6%5.9%江蘇銀行5.6%3.8%1.8%2.0%7.0%瑞豐銀行4.8%6.0%4.2%0.8%13.7%貴陽銀行2.5%0.9%1.6%1.0%2.8%滬農(nóng)商行2.0%1.6%2.5%4.1%3.1%杭州銀行4.8%5.2%2.0%3.4%4.9%農(nóng)商行3.8%1.2%1.5%2.1%6.0%122.1.3

資產(chǎn)端：大行與高景氣區(qū)域行表現(xiàn)更為積極數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信證券研究部個(gè)體而言，大行與高景氣區(qū)域行資產(chǎn)擴(kuò)張更為積極2.1.3

資產(chǎn)端：大行與高景氣區(qū)域行表現(xiàn)更為積極數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信證券研究部各類型上市銀行資產(chǎn)及細(xì)項(xiàng)同比增長情況總資產(chǎn)信貸投資同業(yè)總資產(chǎn)信貸投資同業(yè)大銀行12.8%12.7%12.2%31.1%13.9%13.7%12.6%38.5%股份行7.4%6.9%11.2%0.3%8.0%7.3%13.0%0.3%城商行12.8%13.5%12.5%19.7%12.5%12.7%14.8%7.6%農(nóng)商行8.9%10.6%12.2%-8.5%11.2%10.2%18.1%-4.8%132022(YoY) 2023Q1(YoY)2023Q1大行、城農(nóng)商行信貸同比均達(dá)兩位數(shù)增速，股份行信貸增速相對偏緩，推測受零售貸款增長乏力拖累各類型銀行投資資產(chǎn)均保持高景氣大行同業(yè)資產(chǎn)保持高增2.1.3

資產(chǎn)端：大行與高景氣區(qū)域行表現(xiàn)更為積極上市銀行資產(chǎn)及細(xì)項(xiàng)同比增長情況總資產(chǎn)工行建行農(nóng)行中行交行郵儲大銀行中信招商民生興業(yè)浦發(fā)光大華夏平安浙商股份行南京寧波北京江蘇貴陽12.6%14.4%16.7%8.2%11.4%11.8%12.8%6.3%9.6%4.4%7.7%7.0%6.8%6.1%8.1%14.7%7.4%17.8%17.4%10.8%13.8%6.1%12.3%12.7%15.1%11.7%11.2%11.7%12.7%8.6%2.4%12.5%2.4%8.0%2.7%8.7%13.1%19.7%6.9%7.4%14.6%11.9%19.3%6.6%13.7%11.8%15.8%4.6%12.3%14.0%12.2%27.4%9.4%5.3%10.2%11.5%12.0%5.7%15.3%13.4%11.2%14.1%14.8%1.8%14.0%11.1%27.9%85.6%53.2%4.4%9.1%9.2%31.1%-21.0%8.5%-10.1%45.7%-26.6%12.2%52.9%-7.5%67.0%0.3%24.5%4.2%-30.1%1.6%15.1%12.7%15.4%19.2%10.7%10.8%10.7%13.9%6.7%11.6%6.2%11.4%5.2%7.2%5.3%6.6%10.7%8.0%14.1%13.8%11.5%15.3%6.5%13.5%14.1%16.4%12.6%10.9%12.0%13.7%7.9%10.0%3.5%11.0%2.5%7.5%2.5%9.0%11.7%7.3%17.2%18.0%2.8%14.8%13.5%15.7%12.0%14.9%6.8%12.2%11.3%12.6%5.3%25.4%12.4%11.4%15.7%11.3%15.8%2.1%15.9%13.0%12.9%18.3%20.0%17.1%2.6%23.4%89.7%55.1%30.3%6.9%9.3%38.5%6.3%-11.1%13.2%26.4%-15.9%-16.6%-22.5%31.9%-20.5%0.3%28.8%46.8%6.4%24.1%-66.2%

杭州 16.3% 25.2% 13.2% 15.8% 16.4% 19.0% 18.4% -22.3%數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信證券研究部 2022(YoY) 2023Q1(YoY) 2022(YoY) 2023Q1(YoY)14信貸 投資 同業(yè) 總資產(chǎn) 信貸 投資 同業(yè) 總資產(chǎn) 信貸 投資 同業(yè) 總資產(chǎn) 信貸 投資同業(yè)上海成都鄭州長沙青島西安蘇州廈門重慶齊魯蘭州城商行江陰無錫常熟蘇農(nóng)張家港紫金青農(nóng)商渝農(nóng)商瑞豐滬農(nóng)商8.5%19.4%2.9%13.6%1.4%17.3%15.8%12.7%10.6%16.8%8.9%12.8%10.2%4.9%16.7%13.6%13.9%8.7%1.0%6.8%16.6%10.6%14.5%15.3%10.2%4.3%17.5%14.5%10.9%18.8%4.8%12.7%9.2%13.5%14.5%15.2%14.4%3.3%8.7%21.0%9.3%12.7%6.9%13.5%-7.3%7.1%6.4%40.2%9.5%7.3%12.2%18.1%5.8%9.4%-2.7%12.5%21.3%11.9%-6.2%-2.0%9.9%22.8%25.3%12.2%11.2%12.5%-21.6%146.8%-45.0%-12.8%44.4%44.1%-3.2%12.9%40.1%-15.5%25.6%19.7%-13.0%9.0%0.3%6.3%-5.5%-43.2%-13.1%31.1%0.3%19.7%7.7%17.6%5.4%15.5%4.8%22.1%11.6%6.3%10.3%16.7%12.0%12.5%11.6%8.9%18.0%16.2%10.6%12.0%4.7%9.4%26.6%11.8%6.9%29.6%11.7%17.9%10.8%6.6%17.2%11.8%12.0%17.9%9.8%12.7%12.0%9.7%18.1%13.4%11.3%11.5%2.9%9.3%21.8%8.6%11.6%11.5%-3.2%11.1%0.4%49.1%7.1%10.0%26.4%14.9%4.6%14.8%16.6%5.9%23.0%24.7%10.6%16.9%13.1%14.4%29.1%26.9%0.2%-2.9%-0.7%60.5%55.4%-13.9%6.5%2.3%-32.8%73.0%53.7%7.6%-38.4%48.0%-33.2%15.1%30.0%4.1%-16.4%-2.0%21.8%-9.8%農(nóng)商行

8.9%

10.6%

12.2%

-8.5%

11.2%

10.2%

18.1%

-4.8%

2.2.1

負(fù)債端：一季度銀行業(yè)負(fù)債增速與資產(chǎn)匹配銀行業(yè)負(fù)債增速與資產(chǎn)匹配：上市銀行2023Q1末總負(fù)債季度環(huán)比+5.9%（2022Q1末季度環(huán)比+5.0%）上市銀行總負(fù)債季度環(huán)比增速5.6%2.3%1.7%0.5%4.1%1.8%0.6%0.9%5.0%3.3%1.6%1.3%5.9%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4數(shù)據(jù)來源：各公司財(cái)報(bào)，中信證券研究部

注：由于瑞豐銀行、滬農(nóng)商行上市前部分季度盈利數(shù)據(jù)缺失，上述計(jì)算中對以上兩家銀行予以剔除2020 2021 2022 202315162.2.2

負(fù)債端：一季度負(fù)債增長以存款為主，同業(yè)負(fù)債增速下降上市銀行2023Q1末存款、債券、同業(yè)負(fù)債季度環(huán)比+7.3%/-0.2%/+2.1%（2022Q1末季度環(huán)比+6.0%/+4.1%/-0.7%）一季度上市銀行存款高增12.7萬億元，一方面居民投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好降低存在慣性，財(cái)富管理配置延續(xù)回流存款，另一方面亦受益于信貸積極投放派生當(dāng)季資金市場利率有所抬升，以同業(yè)負(fù)債為代表的高成本的主動(dòng)負(fù)債增速有所回落數(shù)據(jù)來源：各公司財(cái)報(bào)，中信證券研究部

注：由于瑞豐銀行、滬農(nóng)商行上市前部分季度盈利數(shù)據(jù)缺失，上述計(jì)算中對以上兩家銀行予以剔除上市銀行一季度存款增長明顯一季度上市銀行存款增速大幅提升，增速同業(yè)負(fù)債增速下降數(shù)據(jù)來源：各公司財(cái)報(bào)，中信證券研究部

注：由于瑞豐銀行、滬農(nóng)商行上市前部分季度盈利數(shù)據(jù)缺失，上述計(jì)算中對以上兩家銀行予以剔除(20,000)020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,00021Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1存款 債券 同業(yè)（億元）0%-1%-2%2%1%8%7%6%5%4%3%21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1存款

QoQ 債券

QoQ 同業(yè)

QoQ2.2.3

負(fù)債端：負(fù)債總量匹配資產(chǎn)但結(jié)構(gòu)差異明顯分銀行類型來看，負(fù)債均匹配資產(chǎn)增速2023Q1末，大行、股份行、城商和農(nóng)商行總負(fù)債季度環(huán)比分別+6.7

/+4.1

/+4.8

/+6.22022Q12022H2022Q32022N2023Q1大銀行5.4%3.7%2.3%1.0%6.3%股份行3.4%1.4%0.5%2.0%4.0%城商行5.0%2.7%1.7%2.9%4.7%農(nóng)商行3.8%1.2%1.5%2.1%6.0%各類型上市銀行總負(fù)債季度環(huán)比增長情況17數(shù)據(jù)來源：各公司財(cái)報(bào)，中信證券研究部2.2.3

負(fù)債端：負(fù)債總量匹配資產(chǎn)但結(jié)構(gòu)差異明顯18數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信證券研究部上市銀行總負(fù)債季度環(huán)比增長情況22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q122Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1工商銀行6.4%4.3%2.0%-0.1%6.5%上海銀行4.0%2.2%2.4%-0.3%3.2%建設(shè)銀行6.1%5.8%1.5%0.8%7.1%成都銀行9.3%7.2%1.2%0.8%7.6%農(nóng)業(yè)銀行6.4%5.5%4.3%0.2%9.0%鄭州銀行-0.2%1.5%2.1%1.1%2.5%中國銀行2.8%2.2%2.0%0.9%5.4%長沙銀行3.9%4.3%2.1%3.1%5.7%交通銀行6.0%2.3%0.8%2.4%5.4%青島銀行0.0%1.8%-0.7%-0.3%4.4%郵儲銀行5.4%1.2%1.0%4.2%4.3%西安銀行-1.8%4.0%3.1%12.4%2.5%大銀行5.6%4.0%2.2%0.9%6.7%蘇州銀行9.5%1.8%0.6%3.1%6.0%中信銀行2.4%0.5%4.3%-1.0%2.8%廈門銀行4.5%2.5%3.5%2.1%-1.9%招商銀行1.6%3.7%-0.6%4.6%3.6%重慶銀行3.8%3.5%0.8%2.6%3.5%民生銀行3.0%2.4%-2.9%1.8%5.0%齊魯銀行4.8%4.6%4.0%3.0%4.7%興業(yè)銀行2.4%2.1%1.0%1.9%6.3%蘭州銀行2.7%5.4%0.8%-0.3%6.4%浦發(fā)銀行3.6%1.1%-1.1%3.5%1.8%城商行5.2%2.8%1.6%3.0%4.8%光大銀行6.2%0.2%-0.1%0.5%6.3%江陰銀行3.2%1.6%1.9%3.2%4.6%華夏銀行4.3%0.6%-0.2%1.3%4.0%無錫銀行3.2%-0.1%0.9%-0.6%7.5%平安銀行4.1%-0.3%1.6%2.5%2.5%常熟銀行9.4%2.5%3.0%1.3%10.7%浙商銀行9.7%1.6%0.7%3.2%4.9%蘇農(nóng)銀行3.3%4.1%3.3%2.7%5.9%股份行3.5%1.5%0.3%2.1%4.1%張家港行6.8%1.5%4.1%1.5%3.3%南京銀行2.7%2.2%-0.8%7.1%3.5%紫金銀行11.1%-0.3%-2.3%0.7%14.5%寧波銀行7.9%1.5%1.5%5.1%4.3%青農(nóng)商行2.9%0.3%-2.2%-0.2%6.9%北京銀行10.6%0.7%3.5%2.2%7.0%渝農(nóng)商行3.5%0.4%1.0%1.7%6.2%江蘇銀行5.8%4.1%1.7%2.0%7.3%瑞豐銀行5.0%6.5%4.3%0.6%14.9%貴陽銀行2.4%1.0%1.5%0.9%2.8%滬農(nóng)商行1.9%1.8%2.4%4.3%3.1%杭州銀行4.9%5.5%1.9%3.5%5.0%農(nóng)商行3.9%1.3%1.4%2.1%6.2%2.2.3

負(fù)債端：負(fù)債總量匹配資產(chǎn)但結(jié)構(gòu)差異明顯分銀行類型來看，負(fù)債結(jié)構(gòu)差異明顯大行和城商行存款增長較好大行和農(nóng)商行應(yīng)付債券增長較多股份行和城商行同業(yè)負(fù)債增長較多數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信證券研究部各類型上市銀行負(fù)債及細(xì)項(xiàng)同比增長情況總負(fù)債存款債券同業(yè)總負(fù)債存款債券同業(yè)大銀行13.2%12.7%17.9%16.0%14.4%14.8%17.6%12.1%股份行7.5%10.9%-3.6%7.0%8.1%10.5%-10.4%18.4%城商行13.1%14.0%8.5%17.4%12.8%14.1%1.7%25.0%農(nóng)商行8.9%10.6%12.2%-8.5%11.2%10.2%18.1%-4.8%192022(YoY) 2023Q1(YoY)2.2.3

負(fù)債端：負(fù)債總量匹配資產(chǎn)但結(jié)構(gòu)差異明顯數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信證券研究部2022(YoY)2023Q1(YoY)交行11.9%12.9%5.4%1.5%11.2%13.4%6.2%-2.0%郵儲12.3%12.0%25.2%31.5%11.1%11.1%9.9%15.4%大銀行13.2%12.7%17.9%16.0%14.4%14.8%17.6%12.1%中信6.2%7.7%1.8%8.8%6.6%10.4%-4.1%4.6%招商9.6%18.9%-49.9%-12.5%11.8%16.5%-29.7%2.1%民生4.3%5.9%-8.8%19.0%6.3%6.6%-21.5%28.5%興業(yè)7.6%9.9%3.4%5.1%11.6%11.2%-2.6%15.9%浦發(fā)7.2%9.6%1.0%7.5%5.3%8.1%-19.8%37.7%寧波17.8%23.3%14.2%23.4%13.9%22.3%-0.3%16.8%北京11.4%12.8%5.2%16.0%12.3%8.4%12.1%36.3%江蘇14.2%12.2%10.5%35.7%15.8%13.6%11.5%42.1%貴陽5.9%7.0%1.2%-3.7%6.4%8.3%-17.8%25.2%杭州16.7%14.8%-0.5%60.3%16.8%15.8%0.0%69.2%總負(fù)債存款債券同業(yè)總負(fù)債存款債券同業(yè)總負(fù)債存款債券同業(yè)總負(fù)債存款債券同業(yè)工行13.2%13.0%14.5%14.4%13.2%14.3%32.1%0.7%上海8.6%8.5%15.5%-4.0%7.7%10.3%11.3%-2.5%建行14.8%11.8%24.4%40.3%15.9%15.1%23.1%30.3%成都19.5%20.3%49.7%-21.3%17.6%18.9%24.3%7.6%農(nóng)行17.3%14.7%24.0%45.5%20.2%17.7%27.3%57.0%鄭州4.5%6.3%5.5%0.7%7.4%9.7%8.3%-4.9%中行8.1%11.3%11.0%-12.4%10.8%14.3%-0.8%-10.9%長沙13.9%14.2%4.3%23.4%15.9%15.9%14.8%2.0%2022(YoY)2023Q1(YoY)青島0.8%9.5%-18.8%2.7%5.3%16.3%-25.3%24.0%西安18.3%22.6%-7.2%67.6%23.6%24.2%16.3%-26.5%蘇州15.6%16.3%19.6%28.4%11.9%19.5%-4.9%5.7%廈門13.1%11.6%4.8%39.2%6.2%8.5%11.5%-5.0%重慶11.1%13.0%12.6%28.2%10.8%12.4%3.4%56.9%齊魯17.4%19.8%7.9%-1.5%17.3%21.7%-8.1%3.2%蘭州8.8%5.7%13.0%70.4%12.7%5.5%105.0%81.9%光大6.9%6.6%14.7%4.5%7.0%7.3%-0.9%15.2%城商行13.1%14.0%8.5%17.4%12.8%14.1%1.7%25.0%華夏6.0%8.7%-3.1%13.9%5.7%5.9%-0.6%13.5%江陰10.3%10.5%69.8%-44.1%11.7%14.2%29.1%-33.3%平安8.0%12.1%-16.0%11.4%6.3%10.4%-15.5%40.2%無錫3.4%9.5%-55.1%-23.7%7.7%10.3%-45.8%99.2%浙商15.9%18.8%1.3%12.2%10.8%12.9%0.0%19.6%常熟17.0%16.9%-1.8%29.0%18.3%17.5%-29.7%86.8%股份行7.5%10.9%-3.6%7.0%8.1%10.5%-10.4%18.4%蘇農(nóng)14.1%14.0%14.8%11.9%16.9%19.5%-10.5%39.7%南京16.9%15.9%4.2%40.3%13.0%14.1%-37.6%125.8%張家港14.5%15.2%5.4%21.3%10.8%16.6%-25.9%-4.0%紫金8.9%12.7%-42.6%32.9%12.3%13.7%2.0%-3.3%青農(nóng)商0.7%6.5%-9.6%-3.9%4.7%7.9%-0.8%3.0%渝農(nóng)商6.6%8.6%-24.1%64.9%9.4%9.7%-19.6%69.5%瑞豐17.4%23.1%-2.5%3.5%28.4%24.8%58.5%172.0%滬農(nóng)商10.8%12.4%2.2%1.6%12.1%10.9%40.1%14.0%農(nóng)商行8.8%11.5%-14.8%23.6%11.4%12.1%-4.6%35.5%20個(gè)體而言，存款方面分化明顯，大行、零售優(yōu)勢銀行和部分城商行存款增長較好；部分城農(nóng)商行在該季度大幅增加同業(yè)負(fù)債支撐信貸供給上市銀行負(fù)債及細(xì)項(xiàng)同比增長情況2.3

小結(jié)資產(chǎn)端：擴(kuò)張積極，信貸投放高景氣總量來看，一季度上市銀行資產(chǎn)擴(kuò)張積極，上市銀行總資產(chǎn)季度環(huán)比增幅為5.6結(jié)構(gòu)來看，一季度銀行各類生息資產(chǎn)均有增長，其中信貸投放貢獻(xiàn)主要增量個(gè)體而言，大行與高景氣區(qū)域行表現(xiàn)更為積極負(fù)債端：存款高增，主動(dòng)負(fù)債分化總量來看，一季度上市銀行負(fù)債增速與資產(chǎn)匹配，上市銀行總負(fù)債季度環(huán)比增幅為5.9結(jié)構(gòu)來看，一季度負(fù)債增長以存款為主，以同業(yè)負(fù)債為代表的高成本的主動(dòng)負(fù)債增速有所回落個(gè)體而言，負(fù)債總量匹配資產(chǎn)但結(jié)構(gòu)差異明顯，大行和城商行存款增長較好；部分城農(nóng)商行在該季度大幅增加同業(yè)負(fù)債支撐信貸供給21CONTENTS目錄經(jīng)營概況：盈利增速回落至近年低位資產(chǎn)負(fù)債：積極擴(kuò)表息差定價(jià)：底部運(yùn)行非息業(yè)務(wù)：恢復(fù)進(jìn)行時(shí)資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量：夯實(shí)與穩(wěn)定投資建議：板塊配置當(dāng)時(shí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素223.1

行業(yè)狀況：息差延續(xù)拖累凈利息收入上市銀行2023Q1生息資產(chǎn)規(guī)模同比+12.5 ，而凈利息收入同比-1.8 ，息差表現(xiàn)延續(xù)拖累凈利息收入統(tǒng)計(jì)一季度上市銀行凈利息收入同比增速和生息資產(chǎn)同比增速差值，大銀行、股份行、城商行、農(nóng)商行分別為-16.5

/-11.0/-6.7/-10.5大銀行息差對凈利息收入拖累更為明顯，城商行息差拖累相對較小各類型上市銀行凈利息收入及生息資產(chǎn)累計(jì)同比增長情況23Q1同比增速差值（凈利息收入-22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q122Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1生息資產(chǎn)）大銀行6.9%6.0%5.4%3.7%-2.0%8.6%10.6%12.2%13.3%14.5%-16.5%股份行0.7%0.7%0.8%0.6%-3.3%7.6%7.4%6.5%6.7%7.7%-11.0%城商行6.1%5.7%6.1%5.4%4.0%12.3%11.7%10.8%11.7%10.6%-6.7%農(nóng)商行4.5%3.9%2.7%2.7%0.6%9.1%8.1%8.1%9.7%11.1%-10.5%合計(jì)5.1%4.5%4.2%3.0%-1.8%8.7%9.9%10.6%11.5%12.5%-14.3%23凈利息收入（累計(jì)）（YoY）

生息資產(chǎn)（YoY）數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信證券研究部3.1

行業(yè)狀況：息差延續(xù)拖累凈利息收入招商10.0%8.4%7.6%7.0%1.7%10.6%10.5%9.5%9.9%11.5%-9.7%民生-18.7%-16.6%-16.8%-14.6%-7.9%2.0%3.2%0.4%3.1%5.5%-13.4%興業(yè)2.4%0.7%1.0%-0.3%-6.2%10.6%11.1%7.3%7.5%11.9%-18.1%浦發(fā)2.5%1.5%0.2%-1.7%-12.0%3.5%3.3%2.5%5.4%4.0%-16.1%光大0.1%1.4%1.5%1.3%-1.8%10.9%8.4%9.6%7.0%7.6%-9.4%華夏-7.5%-7.3%-6.9%-6.7%-6.3%6.5%6.1%4.0%2.2%1.6%-7.9%平安7.3%7.9%8.7%8.1%0.5%10.8%8.3%7.3%7.9%7.2%-6.7%浙商14.2%14.0%14.4%12.2%2.2%18.6%16.6%16.6%15.0%9.9%-7.7%股份行0.7%0.7%0.8%0.6%-3.3%7.6%7.4%6.5%6.7%7.7%-11.0%南京-0.9%-0.6%0.3%-0.5%4.8%9.9%9.9%9.8%13.8%9.9%-5.1%寧波北京江蘇貴陽杭州上海12.6%0.7%13.6%0.9%1.4%9.1%8.3%0.5%14.1%10.2%3.5%5.7%11.3%1.9%12.8%11.5%7.5%1.7%14.8%0.1%14.9%6.5%8.7%-6.0%8.0%-3.4%10.3%7.1%13.6%-11.7%37.2%3.3%11.8%4.6%15.5%10.8%27.8%3.8%10.9%5.0%19.1%9.6%24.0%2.0%11.1%6.8%16.9%9.2%上市銀行凈利息收入及生息資產(chǎn)增長情況（累計(jì)同比）凈利息收入（累計(jì)）（YoY）生息資產(chǎn)（YoY）23Q1同比增速凈利息收入（累計(jì)）（YoY）生息資產(chǎn)（YoY）23Q1同比增速22Q122Q2 22Q3 22Q423Q122Q122Q2 22Q3 22Q423Q1差值（凈利息收入-生息資產(chǎn)）22Q122Q2 22Q3 22Q423Q122Q122Q2 22Q3 22Q423Q1差值（凈利息收入-生息資產(chǎn)）24數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信證券研究部工行6.2%4.5%3.2%0.4%-4.8%9.0%10.2%11.6%13.2%13.4%-18.2%成都19.4%18.7%16.6%14.5%11.6%17.3%28.7%23.6%20.6%21.8%-10.2%建行8.5%7.2%7.7%6.2%-4.1%9.0%13.2%13.8%15.0%16.5%-20.6%鄭州12.5%8.3%8.2%2.6%-4.3%3.9%1.2%5.0%2.5%5.4%-9.8%農(nóng)行7.7%6.0%4.3%2.1%-3.5%9.3%13.8%16.8%16.9%19.2%-22.8%長沙8.7%7.0%8.9%11.5%15.9%11.8%11.3%10.3%13.9%16.6%-0.7%中行5.3%7.3%8.5%8.4%7.0%6.1%6.4%8.9%9.0%11.8%-4.8%青島-4.7%1.7%6.1%8.4%14.7%7.8%4.2%7.0%2.5%9.7%5.0%交行10.3%8.4%7.4%5.1%-4.4%10.3%9.5%9.1%11.4%10.6%-15.0%西安-9.8%-9.8%-9.9%-8.1%-1.7%7.5%7.7%9.5%15.9%20.7%-22.3%郵儲4.1%3.8%2.3%1.6%1.0%9.2%7.6%8.5%11.7%10.8%-9.8%蘇州-1.0%4.0%7.9%10.7%11.1%13.0%15.5%11.1%13.7%14.0%-2.9%大銀行6.9%6.0%5.4%3.7%-2.0%8.6%10.6%12.2%13.3%14.5%-16.5%廈門10.5%7.7%7.4%8.1%0.8%19.3%14.7%11.4%13.4%6.8%-6.1%中信-1.2%-0.3%0.6%1.9%-0.9%3.9%5.2%7.5%5.7%7.1%-7.9%重慶-6.6%-4.3%-4.9%-6.8%-5.3%11.6%9.2%9.3%10.0%9.4%-14.6%齊魯14.3%16.0%12.7%14.6%12.7%19.2%16.7%17.0%16.2%16.2%-3.5%蘭州-5.8%-6.5%-8.0%-2.1%4.7%-7.3%7.9%9.0%14.5%-9.7%城商行6.1%5.7%6.1%5.4%4.0%12.3%11.7%10.8%11.7%10.6%-6.7%江陰22.1%20.1%18.2%12.8%2.2%9.6%10.3%14.0%9.6%7.7%-5.4%無錫5.4%2.6%0.9%-0.5%-4.9%9.7%6.6%4.1%5.2%9.4%-14.3%常熟24.0%20.8%18.7%13.8%17.7%18.0%18.4%15.6%18.8%17.6%0.1%蘇農(nóng)5.6%4.5%-0.5%3.4%0.0%14.7%12.7%16.9%12.5%15.9%-15.9%張家港5.7%6.5%5.7%6.1%6.2%15.3%15.1%16.0%14.7%13.1%-7.0%紫金-2.0%-1.9%3.2%1.9%0.1%0.7%0.9%3.6%9.8%10.7%-10.5%22.3%15.1%-7.1%青農(nóng)商-6.2%-5.2%-4.8%-2.6%0.2%5.7%3.9%2.6%1.8%5.0%-4.8%7.7%5.5%-8.8%渝農(nóng)商-0.8%-2.4%-5.0%-3.2%-6.1%8.1%5.8%3.7%5.7%6.7%-12.8%10.6%10.0%0.4%瑞豐1.5%5.3%6.7%6.4%-3.2%6.9%11.6%14.4%16.4%27.9%-31.1%6.2%5.6%1.5%滬農(nóng)商9.1%9.6%8.6%7.1%3.8%10.1%9.8%11.2%14.1%14.8%-11.1%17.7%17.4%-3.8%農(nóng)商行4.5%3.9%2.7%2.7%0.6%9.1%8.1%8.1%9.7%11.1%-10.5%6.6%5.4%-17.1%合計(jì)5.1%4.5%4.2%3.0%-1.8%8.7%9.9%10.6%11.5%12.5%-14.3%253.2.1

因素分析：資產(chǎn)端與負(fù)債端共同拉低（利息收入和利息支出分析）上市銀行數(shù)據(jù)來看，一季度利息收入同比+8.6

，而利息支出同比+20.4

，利息支出大幅抬升壓制凈利息收入一季度大銀行利息收入增長最快，但利息支出增幅大幅超過其他類型銀行股份行利息收入增長放緩，利息支出增幅相對剛性農(nóng)商行利息收入增長最慢，但利息支出控制也相對較好各類型上市銀行利息收入和利息支出增速情況（累計(jì)同比）22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q122Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1大銀行9.2%9.3%10.0%10.1%11.4%12.1%13.6%16.0%18.3%28.3%股份行3.0%3.0%3.1%3.0%3.3%5.4%5.4%5.5%5.4%10.0%城商行8.7%7.6%6.9%6.1%7.0%11.0%9.1%7.5%6.7%9.3%農(nóng)商行7.1%5.7%4.2%3.7%2.8%9.8%7.5%5.8%4.6%4.8%合計(jì)7.4%7.3%7.7%7.6%8.6%9.9%10.5%11.7%12.9%20.4%利息收入（累計(jì)）(YoY) 利息支出（累計(jì)）(YoY)數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信證券研究部263.2.1

因素分析：資產(chǎn)端與負(fù)債端共同拉低（利息收入和利息支出分析）上市銀行利息收入和利息支出增速情況（累計(jì)同比）22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q122Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1工行9.5%10.0%10.7%10.2%11.7%14.2%18.1%21.8%24.4%34.9%建行9.2%9.5%10.7%10.6%7.9%10.3%12.6%14.8%16.6%23.8%農(nóng)行10.2%10.0%10.3%10.0%10.5%13.7%15.4%18.4%20.6%28.6%中行8.1%8.3%9.9%11.8%20.8%11.2%9.5%11.6%15.7%36.8%交行10.3%10.1%10.5%10.7%12.4%10.3%11.4%12.8%14.9%24.9%郵儲7.1%6.6%5.6%5.0%3.8%11.7%10.7%10.6%10.1%7.7%大銀行9.2%9.3%10.0%10.1%11.4%12.1%13.6%16.0%18.3%28.3%中信1.0%1.4%1.9%2.4%3.0%3.1%2.9%3.2%3.0%6.7%招商9.2%8.6%8.2%8.0%8.2%8.0%8.8%9.2%9.8%19.2%民生-7.7%-6.4%-6.3%-5.3%0.2%2.4%2.6%2.8%2.4%6.0%興業(yè)4.4%5.0%5.3%4.3%2.8%6.2%8.8%9.0%8.3%10.6%浦發(fā)1.7%0.6%0.4%-0.4%-0.6%1.0%-0.1%0.6%0.7%9.1%光大4.8%4.7%4.8%5.2%6.0%9.4%7.9%8.1%8.9%13.1%華夏0.2%0.0%-0.5%-1.0%-1.7%8.9%8.1%6.7%5.2%2.8%平安8.2%7.6%7.4%7.2%4.2%9.3%7.2%5.8%6.0%9.0%浙商9.8%10.2%10.9%9.9%8.7%6.1%7.0%8.1%8.1%14.5%股份行3.0%3.0%3.1%3.0%3.3%5.4%5.4%5.5%5.4%10.0%南京5.7%6.6%7.0%7.3%13.2%10.9%12.0%11.9%13.0%19.1%寧波19.6%17.1%16.9%16.2%12.2%27.3%25.8%22.3%17.5%16.3%北京1.1%-0.7%-0.9%-1.5%2.8%1.4%-1.7%-3.1%-2.8%8.0%江蘇10.5%10.1%9.2%10.3%10.2%8.1%7.0%6.4%6.8%10.0%貴陽0.7%2.8%2.2%-0.1%2.2%0.6%-3.3%-5.3%-5.4%-2.0%杭州12.4%13.2%13.7%12.9%13.4%21.6%21.0%18.6%16.2%13.3%上海8.7%5.6%3.1%-0.7%-1.4%8.4%5.5%4.1%3.5%6.4%22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q122Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1成都20.6%19.9%18.7%17.6%16.5%21.8%21.0%20.8%20.7%21.2%鄭州3.4%0.8%0.5%-2.0%-3.2%-4.0%-5.6%-6.1%-6.0%-2.1%長沙9.2%8.1%9.0%9.9%11.7%9.8%9.3%9.1%8.2%7.7%青島8.3%9.9%9.5%8.9%5.7%19.4%16.3%12.0%9.3%-0.4%西安1.5%-1.3%-1.3%-0.3%9.4%11.2%5.7%5.4%5.6%17.1%蘇州10.7%10.1%9.8%10.0%8.3%21.2%15.1%11.3%9.4%6.2%廈門15.2%12.2%10.2%8.1%2.8%18.2%15.1%11.9%8.1%3.9%重慶1.7%2.6%1.5%0.5%0.8%8.0%7.6%6.3%5.8%4.7%齊魯15.9%15.3%13.4%13.2%11.9%17.2%14.6%13.9%12.0%11.2%蘭州13.4%7.5%1.5%1.2%-4.3%24.0%14.8%6.3%2.8%-8.1%城商行8.7%7.6%6.9%6.1%7.0%11.0%9.1%7.5%6.7%9.3%江陰12.0%11.7%11.1%8.6%3.8%3.1%4.1%4.5%4.5%5.4%無錫8.2%5.0%3.2%1.7%0.6%10.5%6.9%5.0%3.6%5.1%常熟23.8%21.2%18.5%15.2%16.6%23.6%21.7%18.2%17.3%15.2%蘇農(nóng)10.2%9.4%6.4%8.8%9.2%16.1%15.2%14.5%14.9%19.7%張家港11.4%11.0%9.8%9.0%9.3%18.0%16.0%14.3%12.2%12.4%紫金0.2%0.4%1.6%1.5%6.1%2.1%2.4%0.3%1.1%11.3%青農(nóng)商1.7%0.8%-0.3%-0.2%-0.6%9.6%6.7%4.1%2.0%-1.3%渝農(nóng)商5.0%2.3%-0.4%-0.9%-4.4%11.5%7.4%4.4%1.3%-2.7%瑞豐3.4%5.7%6.9%7.6%7.3%5.4%6.2%7.0%8.8%18.0%滬農(nóng)商7.5%6.8%6.3%5.8%5.6%6.1%4.5%4.3%4.6%7.1%農(nóng)商行7.1%5.7%4.2%3.7%2.8%9.8%7.5%5.8%4.6%4.8%合計(jì)7.4%7.3%7.7%7.6%8.6%9.9%10.5%11.7%12.9%20.4%利息收入（累計(jì)）(YoY) 利息支出（累計(jì)）(YoY) 利息收入（累計(jì)）(YoY) 利息支出（累計(jì)）(YoY)數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信證券研究部273.2.2

因素分析：資產(chǎn)端與負(fù)債端共同拉低（收益率與付息率分析）期初期末平均法測算各類型銀行生息資產(chǎn)收益率和計(jì)息負(fù)債成本率情況22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q122Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1大銀行3.54%3.53%3.59%3.57%3.46%1.72%1.74%1.80%1.83%1.93%股份行4.20%4.18%4.21%4.18%4.05%2.14%2.16%2.18%2.17%2.18%城商行4.33%4.30%4.34%4.28%4.17%2.36%2.36%2.37%2.33%2.28%農(nóng)商行4.20%4.18%4.20%4.11%3.91%2.22%2.21%2.22%2.19%2.12%合計(jì)3.78%3.76%3.81%3.78%3.66%1.89%1.91%1.96%1.97%2.03%生息資產(chǎn)收益率（累計(jì)） 計(jì)息負(fù)債成本率（累計(jì)）數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，中信證券研究部資產(chǎn)端：2023年一季度生息資產(chǎn)收益率為3.66

，較上年全年走低12bps，主要受年初重定價(jià)和市場定價(jià)低位運(yùn)行影響負(fù)債端：2023年一季度計(jì)息負(fù)債成本率為2.03

，較上年全年抬升6bps，一方面居民風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好降低存在慣性，投資延續(xù)向定期儲蓄轉(zhuǎn)化；另一方面企業(yè)資金活化不足，企業(yè)結(jié)算資金等低成本的對公活期存款增長受限283.2.2

因素分析：資產(chǎn)端與負(fù)債端共同拉低（收益率與付息率分析）期初期末平均法測算各家銀行生息資產(chǎn)收益率和計(jì)息負(fù)債成本率情況22Q122Q222Q322Q423Q122Q122Q222Q322Q423Q1工行3.50%3.48%3.56%3.54%3.45%1.62%1.66%1.75%1.80%1.93%建行3.68%3.62%3.72%3.69%3.43%1.74%1.75%1.82%1.84%1.85%農(nóng)行3.61%3.58%3.60%3.56%3.38%1.73%1.75%1.81%1.82%1.86%中行3.20%3.22%3.29%3.32%3.50%1.61%1.62%1.67%1.72%2.02%交行3.58%3.61%3.67%3.66%3.62%2.35%2.38%2.45%2.48%2.65%郵儲3.83%3.84%3.85%3.77%3.57%1.60%1.63%1.64%1.62%1.54%大銀行3.54%3.53%3.59%3.57%3.46%1.72%1.74%1.80%1.83%1.93%中信4.10%4.10%4.09%4.09%3.97%2.16%2.18%2.18%2.17%2.17%招商3.91%3.85%3.91%3.84%3.82%1.56%1.57%1.61%1.59%1.67%民生4.03%4.04%4.08%4.05%3.87%2.42%2.43%2.48%2.47%2.43%興業(yè)4.27%4.23%4.25%4.21%4.00%2.23%2.27%2.31%2.29%2.25%浦發(fā)4.01%3.97%3.99%3.92%3.80%2.20%2.19%2.23%2.20%2.26%光大4.28%4.30%4.35%4.35%4.23%2.24%2.24%2.28%2.32%2.37%華夏4.38%4.38%4.38%4.35%4.22%2.29%2.28%2.27%2.25%2.22%平安4.96%4.95%4.98%4.95%4.80%2.19%2.19%2.19%2.17%2.23%浙商4.62%4.63%4.72%4.67%4.47%2.40%2.43%2.48%2.45%2.40%股份行4.20%4.18%4.21%4.18%4.05%2.14%2.16%2.18%2.17%2.18%南京4.45%4.44%4.51%4.45%4.51%1.43%1.46%1.49%1.47%1.52%寧波4.42%4.31%4.41%4.37%4.19%2.32%2.43%2.43%2.37%2.34%北京3.95%3.88%3.93%3.81%3.8