美國房地產(chǎn)市場展望-House View - Real Estate Outlook U.S. Q2 2023

HouseView:RealEstateOutlook

U.S.

Q22023

Contents

3Introduction

4Slowernear-termrentgrowth,improvinginthemediumterm

5Thebestandworsttimesforvacancy

6Highlyilliquidcapitalmarkets

7Asgoeslisted...

9Whatitallmeans

HouseView:U.S.RealEstateOutlook|Q22023

Legacyofice

Malls

Retail

Lifesciences

Modernofice

Allproperty

Medicalofice

Hotel

Legacylogistics

NCC*

Studenthousing

Selfstorage

Apartments

Singlefamilyrental

Modernlogistics

13.0%

85%8.7%

9.2%9.4%9.9%

70%

7.

8.

.

6.1%.7.0%.

.

2

.2%

Previousforecast,totalreturn,Q12023(Q12023-Q42027)Currentforecast,capitalgrowth,Q22023(Q32023-Q22028)

Currentforecast,incomereturn,Q22023(Q32023-Q22028)Currentforecast,totalreturn,Q22023(Q32023-Q22028)Previousforecast,totalreturn,Q12023(Q32023-Q22028)like-for-like

16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%

-6%

16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%

-6%

9.3%

44%

8%2%

72%

ChairmanPowell’sannouncementofapauseonratehikesbutsuggestionsoffurthertighteningaheadandalongerwaitforthefirstratecut),weremaincautiousondownsiderisk.Butwestill

haveconvictiononcontinuingtoactivelyinvestintogenerallystrongoccupierfundamentals(withsomenotableexceptions),assistedbyapricingcorrection,whichisnowdeeperandbroader

thanatanypointsincetheGlobalFinancialCrisis(GFC).

HouseView:RealEstateOutlookU.S.

Introduction

Q22023

Figure1:Totalreturnbysectorandbreakdown

%year-over-yearaverage

Givenongoinguncertaintyonthemacrooutlook,weemphasizetheimportanceofthematic

Wehaveupgradedourfive-yearaverageannual

totalreturnforecastforcore,unleveredU.S.all

investmentarounddemographictrends

andtechnologicalchange,andredoubleour

convictionaroundthemodernlogisticsand

residentialsectors.Lookingthroughtheneartermvolatility,weareconfidentthatinvestingina

back-to-basicsapproachandseekingsecure

incomestreamsfromrealestatewillleadtolong-termvaluecreationaswell.Wealsoappreciate,however,thatthismomentintimeoffersarare

opportunitytoacquiregenerationalassetsatresetbasesthathavethepotentialtodeliversuperiorvaluegainsasmarketsnormalize.

propertyto7.2%(Figure1)from6.0%previously.

Thisisbetterthanourlastforecastduetothe

passageoftimethathasshiftedsomeofthe

forecastvaluelossesintothepast.Onalike-

for-likebasisforthetimeperiodthough,this

representsaslightdowngradefromourforecast

threemonthsagosinceourmacrooutlook

suggestsatoughertimeahead—mostespecially

inthenearterm.TheU.S.nowhashigherall

propertyreturnsthantheotherregions,but

wearecautiouswithalower-than-desirable

convictionaroundtheU.S.macrooutlook.

Asofthetimeofwriting(onedayafterFed

*NCCsignifiesneighborhoodandcommunitycenters

Allpropertyfiguresincludeoffice,lifesciences,medicaloffice,malls,NCC,logistics,apartments,studenthousingandbycurrentNPIweights.ItexcludeshotelsandselfstorageasthesesectorshavenoweightinNPI.

Source:CBREInvestmentManagement,forecastsasofQ22023.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.BasedonCBREInvestmentManagement’ssubjectiveassessmentandsubjecttochanguncertainandsubjecttochange.

sin

e.

gl

Fo

e-f

re

3

amilyrental,weighted

castsareinherently

?

20

23

C

B

R

EI

N

VE

S

T

ME

N

T

M

A

NA

G

E

M

EN

T

HouseView:U.S.RealEstateOutlook|Q22023

?2023CBREINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT

4

Legacyofice

Modernofice

Malls

Retail

Lifescience

Medicalofice

Selfstorage*

Allproperty

Studenthousing

Hotel**

NCC***

Apartments**

Single-familyrental

Legacylogistics

Modernlogistics

Slowernear-termrent

growth,improvinginthe

mediumterm

Wehavereviseddownourfive-yearaskingrentgrowthforecasts

inmostsectorsgivenourforecastsofamoreseverecreditcrunch

andweakergrowthinthenear-term.(Figure2).Evenforlegacy

office,whereourforecastshaveforsometimebeensuggestinga

challengedperformanceahead,wehavedowngradedthesector

yetfurtherwithdeeperrentlossesoverthefive-yearoutlook.

Althoughmodernofficefaresbetterthanthelegacysegment,

ittoonowseesrentlossesonaverage.Andinthenicheoffice

segments,weremainpositiveonlifescienceslong-termbut

thesectorfacesnear-termchallengesfromheavysupplyand

restrainedfunding.Medicalofficerentgrowthforecastsremain

steadygivenAmerica’sdemographicoutlookandlimitedsupply.

Theextraordinaryrentgrowthdeliveredinrecentyearsinlogistics

segmentsandmostresidentialformatsisnowdeceleratingback

tomorenormallevels.Hotelsandneighborhoodandcommunity

center(NCC)retailhaveseentheirrentgrowthprospects

upgradedasfundamentalscontinuetoimproveandrecenttrends

haveexceededexpectations.

Figure2:Marketrentgrowth

%year-over-yearaverage

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

-6%

6.2%

55%

.

3.7%

3.3%

2.7%2.7%

2.2%

1.

0.4%

-1.1%

-3.4%

Previousforecast,Q12023(Q12023-Q42027)Currentforecast,Q22023(Q32023-Q22028)

1.6%1.8%

2.1%

2.4%

3%

Thesefiguresrelatetoaskingrentsunlessindicateddifferently:

*M-RevPAFchangeperGreenStreetAdvisors.

**Averagedailyroomrate(“ADR”)

***NCCdenotesneighborhoodandcommunitycenters

AllPropertyfiguresincludeoffice,lifescience,medicaloffice,malls,NCC,logistics,apartments,studenthousingandsingle-familyrental,weightedbycurrentNPIweights..

ItexcludeshotelsandselfstorageasthesesectorshavenoweightinNPI

Source:CBREInvestmentManagement,forecastsasofQ22023.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.BasedonCBREInvestmentManagement’ssubjectiveviewsandsubjecttochange.Therecanbenoassuranceanytargetsordevelopmentswilloccurasexpected.Forecastsareinherentlyuncertainandsubjecttochange.

HouseView:U.S.RealEstateOutlook|Q22023

?2023CBREINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT

5

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Thebestandworsttimesforvacancy

Inthefaceofover500basispointsofpolicyrate

tighteningatthefastestpacesincetheearly1980s,theU.S.economyhasbeenshowingremarkableresilience,especiallyinthelabormarket.Whiletechnology

companiesandlocalandregionalbankshaveannouncedjobcuts,thebiggerissueis,infact,ongoinglabor

shortagesacrossawiderangeofoccupationsand

industries.TheU.S.BureauofLaborStatisticsreported(May31,2023)thatjobopeningsedgedupto10.1millionasoftheendofApril,withoverhalfthoseopenings

foundinjustthreeindustries:retailtrade;healthcare

Figure3:Nationalvacancyratesbysector

andsocialassistance;andtransportation,warehousingandutilities.Structurally,wecontinuetobelievethattheshortageoflaborshouldencouragetenantsandtheir

realestatemanagerstourgentlythinkthroughhow

technologymaybemorerapidlyadoptedinthesefields.

Forthemajorityofpropertytypes,thestronglabor

marketistranslatingintodecentspacedemand,

keepingvacancyrateswellbelowlong-termaveragesandclosetorecordlowsinsomemarkets.Figure3

showsnational-levelsectoralvacancyrateshistorically,

currentlyandinourlong-rangeforecast.Officeis

expectedtoendureitsworstoftimes,withvacancy

expectedtosurpass20%bynextyearandpotentially

top22%by2025.Thiswouldbeaworsesituationthan

theGFC,the2002“techwreck”ortheearly1990s.

Shoppingmalls(notgraphed)alsohavecurrent

vacancyratesattheirhighestpointindecades.Life

sciencesvacancyhasrisensharplyoverthepasttwo

quartersbutremainswellbelowhistoricalhighs.For

mostoftheothersectors,vacancyratesarenotfar

fromall-timelows.

24%

22%

20%

18%

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

LogisticsApartmentsNCCretailOficeMedicaloficeLifesciences

Source:CoStarandCBREInvestmentManagementforecastsasofQ22023.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.

HouseView:U.S.RealEstateOutlook|Q22023

?2023CBREINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT

6

Highlyilliquid

capitalmarkets

Transactionvolumesareoneofthebestindicatorsofthe

uncertaintypervadingthemarket(Figure4).Thedecreaseismademoredramaticbytherecord-hightransactionvolumesincertainquartersoflate2021andearly2022forapartmentsandlogistics.Quarter-to-dateindicatorssuggestQ2maybeassimilarlyslowasQ1.AppraisersmaywellcomplainaboutalackoftransactionalevidencebywhichtomaketheirvaluationsbutthevolumeoftradeinU.S.realestateinrecentquartersisstillmoderatebylonger-termhistoricallevels.

All-indebtcostshaverisenby550-650basispointsinJune2023comparedtoFebruary2022.Thefourimportantsourcesofreal

estatefinancingintheU.S.,thelifecompanies,banks,debtfundsandagencies,weredescribedasactivetovoraciousatthestartof2022intheirlendingapproachbutarenowbestcharacterizedascautious,selectiveandrelationshipdriven.Wealsohaveevidenceofsubstantialquantitiesofdrypowderonthesidelines.Preqin

dataindicatesover$227billionofdrypowdertargetingNorth

AmericanrealestatewastalliedforQ1,morethanallotherregionscombinedandonlyslightlydownfromthe$245billionofdry

powderrecordedatthemarket’speakinDecember2021.

Figure4:Quarterlytransactionvolumebypropertytype

$100B

$90B

$80B

$70B

$60B

$50B

$40B

$30B

$20B

$10B

$0B

‘18‘19‘20‘21‘22‘23‘18‘19‘20‘21‘22‘23‘18‘19‘20‘21‘22‘23‘18‘19‘20‘21‘22‘23

ApartmentLogisticsOficeRetail

Source:CoStar,asofJuly6,2023.ColoredcolumnsindicatetransactionvolumeenteredbyCoStarresearchbytheendofeachquarter(forlike-likecomparisontohistory).Graybarsindicateddealsenteredaftertheendofeachquarter.Notethatthelogisticstotalfor2022Q4includesProLogis’$23bacquisitionofDuke.2021Q4apartment

transactionvolumetopped$140b;scaleisshortenedforclarity.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.Currentmarketconditionsdifferfrompriormarketconditions;includingduringpriorperiodsofstressanddislocation.Therecanbenoassuranceanypriortrendswillcontinue.

HouseView:U.S.RealEstateOutlook|Q22023

?2023CBREINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT

7

Asgoeslisted...

ThelistedREITmarketservesasaharbingerofwherebroadervaluesmaybeheaded.AsoftheendofQ12023,REITpricingwasdownnotably,withofficedown53%forthatperiod.But

thehigherinflationandinterestrateenvironmentandothermacrouncertaintieshaveseentheotherthreesectorsslipbyapproximately20%-30%forthatperiodaswell,asshowninFigure5.BytheendofMay2023,thediscounttoNAVforUSREITswasapproaching25%.

UnlistedNCREIFcapitalvalues,however,havethusfarposted

relativelyminorwrite-downsinvalue(Figure6).Oneofthe

biggestquestionsonourmindsistheextenttowhichmountingdebtmaturities,foreclosures,andrealestateownedsalesmay

leadtoamassivebasisresetaswasseenintheearly1990sortheGFC,orwhetherownersmaymanageaslower,moregradualandlesssevereresetthistime.Thisisanespeciallyrelevantquestionfortheofficesector,currentlybesetbytheworstfundamentals

andthegreatestuncertaintyoverfutureincomestreamsandhencepricing.

Figure5:U.S.REITpriceindices(December31,2019=100)

Labelsshowchangefrom2021peaktoendApril2023

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

‘98‘99‘00‘01‘02‘03‘04‘05‘06‘07‘08‘09‘10‘11‘12‘13‘14‘15‘16‘17‘18‘19‘20‘21‘22‘23

ApartmentREITPriceIndex

OficeREITPriceIndex

LogisticsREITPriceIndexRetailREITPriceIndex

Source:NAREIT,throughJune2023.

Figure6:Valueindexbypropertytype(Q42019=100)

LabelsshowcumulativedeclinefromCOVID-erapeak

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

‘07‘08‘09‘10‘11‘12‘13‘14‘15‘16‘17‘18‘19‘20‘21‘22‘23

SelfstorageOficeRetailIndustrialApartments

Source:NCREIF,asofQ12023.

-25%

Logistics

-29%

Apartments

-20%

Retail

-52%

Office

-6.1%

Industrial

-4.0%

Selfstorage

-7.1%

Apartments

-12.0%

Office

-4.3%

Retail

HouseView:U.S.RealEstateOutlook|Q22023

?2023CBREINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT

8

AsgoesListed...

Wealsonoteanhistoricallywidegulfbetweenseveralcaprateindices(Figure7)andaboveall,fortheofficesector.

WiththeNCREIFcaprateattheendofQ1atjust4.75%,yetanimpliedlistedofficecaprate(fromGreenstreet)

hoveringinthe9%-10%range,aconsiderableamountofpricediscoveryneedstoplayoutinthissector.Either

NCREIFvaluationshavealotofcatchinguptodoandweseethoseappraisedvaluescontinuetofallinthequarters

(andyears)ahead,orthelistedmarketshavewellovershot.Wethinksomeofbothwilloccur,forasalsoseenon

thechart,ourforecastsofmodernandlegacyofficesegmentsfallbetweenthosetwoextremes.

Figure7:U.S.officecaprateswith10-yeartreasuryandBBBcorporatebondyields

12%

11%

10%

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

‘06

Nationaloficetransactioncaprates

RCAhedoniccaprate

GreenStreetimpliednationaloficecaprate

CBREIMforecast:modernofice

NCREIFoficevalueweightappraisalcaprate

CBREIMforecast:legacyofice

10-yeartreasury

BBByield

‘09‘10

‘25‘26

‘13‘14

‘21‘22

‘17‘18

‘08

‘20

‘07

‘28

‘24

‘23

‘27

‘16

‘19

‘15

‘12

‘11

Sources:CoStar(transactioncaprates).Capratesaresizedaccordingtotransactionpriceandshadedbydistancefromtrailing180-dayaveragetoindicatetrend.Notethat

noteverytransactionreportsacaprate,andthusthisgraphicisnotnecessarilyacomprehensiveportrayaloftransactionactivity.AsofMay25,2023.Impliedcapratesfrom

REITsperGreenStreetAdvisors.RealCapitalAnalytics(RCA)hedoniccaprateasofMay25,2023.InterestratedatafromFederalReserveandCBREIMforecast.NCREIF

dataasofQ12023.

10-yeartreasuryyieldandBBBcorporateyieldfromOxfordEconomics(CBREInvestmentManagementforecast).

ForecastperCBREInvestmentManagement’sQ22023HouseView.Forecastsarepreliminaryandsubjecttochange.Forillustrativepurposesonly.Currentmarketconditions

differfrompriormarketconditions,includingduringpriorperiodsofstressanddislocation.Therecanbenoassuranceanypriortrendswillcontinue.

HouseView:U.S.RealEstateOutlook|Q22023

?2023CBREINVESTMENTMANAGEMENT

9

Totalreturn

Whatitallmeans

Forseveralyears,wehaveoverweightedourU.S.portfolio

forlogistics,residentialandnext-generationpropertytypes.

Attributionanalysissuggeststhishasservedwellbothduring

thepandemicperiodbutalsointhetighteningcycleofthe

past18monthswhichisstilluponus.Eventhoughtheinflation

andinterestrateenvironmentgoingforwardwilllikelybequite

differentfromthedecadeleadinguptothepandemic,our

requiredreturnanalysis(Figure8)guidesustocontinueinthisway.Withtherepricingwindownowopenafteradecadeofnearconstantcapratecompression,acquiringgood-qualityassetsinthosesectorsatattractivepricingbyexploitingcapitalmarket

dislocationwillbeamainfocus.Refinancingdistressandforcedsalesfromcorefundswithredemptionqueuesmaybeamongthebestsourcesofsuchopportunitiesinourpreferredsectors.

Figure8:Requiredreturn&totalreturnforallU.S.sectors

(Q32023-Q22028,year-over-yearaverage)

14%

Apartments-tier3●

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

Legacyofice-tier2

2%

Legacyofice-

gatewaymarket

0%

4.0%4.5%5.0%5.5%6.0%6.5%7.0%7.5%8.0%8.5%9.0%9.5%10.0%10.5%11.0%11.5%12.0%

Requiredreturn

.Apartments

.Legacyofice

.Modernlogistics

Apartments-tier2Apartments-tier1

Apartments-

gatewaymarket

.Legacylogistics.Malls

.Necessityretail

.Hospitality

.Lifesciences.Modernofice

Retail-Nonmajormarketneighbourhoodcenters

Retail-majormarketneighborhoodcenters

Medicalofice.Selfstorage

RelativeRARElineAbsoluteRAREline

Legacylogistics-regional

Legacylogistics-national

Legacyofice-tier1

Single-familyrental

Studenthousing

Modernlogistics

Medicalofice

Modernofice

Lifesciences

Retail-malls

Selfstorage

Hotel

Note:

1.Totalreturnfiguresreflectunleveredpropertyreturnsofapassivefullyinvestedportfoliobeforefeesandtaxes.Thereturnisthefive-yearaverageperannumfortheperiodQ32023-Q22028.Assumptionsaregeneralizedtoprovideaconsistentmarketoutlookandasset-specificstrategieshavenotbeentakenintoaccount.

2.AbsoluteRAREline:Marketsabovethelineareexpectedtogeneratereturnshigherthantheirrequiredreturn.

3.RelativeRAREline:Duringlatecyclephases,marketsmaynotachieverequiredreturnsgivenhighpricing.Therelativeanalysistakestheaveragegapbetweenrequiredandforecastedreturn(thebenchmarkbubble)asagivenforallmarketswhensettingthehurdle(thebenchmarkline).Hence,marketsabovethelineareexpectedtoperform

relativelybetterthanmarketsbelowtheline.

Source:CBREInvestmentManagement,forecastsasofQ22023.

Forillustrativepurposesonly.BasedonCBREInvestmentManagement’ssubjectiveassessmentandsubjecttochange.Forecastsareinherentlyuncertainandsubjecttochange.

Contact

ShaneTaylor

AmericasHeadofResearch

/p>

shane.taylor@

TheinformationcontainedhereinisgivenasofthedateofthisPresentation,unlessindicatedotherwise.CBREInvestmentManagementhasnotmadeanyrepresentation

orwarranty,expressorimplied,withrespecttothefairness,correctness,accuracy,reasonablenessorcompletenessofanyoftheinformationcontainedherein(including

butnotlimitedtoinformationobtainedfromthirdparties),and