韓國產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易研究院（KIET）：邁向凈零排放：韓國區(qū)域碳政策能力評估

CurrentIssue

TowardNet-zero:AssessingRegionalCarbonPolicyCapacityinKorea1

YooYiseon

1.Introduction

InKorea,thepushtoachievecarbonneutralityandreachnet-zerocarbonemissionsby2050constitutesamonumentalparadigmshift,andeffortstofacilitatethismomentouschangearepoisedtoexertasignificantimpactontheeconomy,industry,andsocietyasawhole.Re-alizingKorea’snationalcarbonneutralityvisionrequireswholesalechangestotheeconomy,industry,andeventhedailylivesofeverydaypeople.Andinthepursuitofnet-zero,thesechangeswillnotbelimitedtospecificsectorsortechnologies,andarelikelytodevelopandevolveindiverseways.Convertingtheexist-ingcarbon-intensiveindustrialstructuretoalow-carbonorzero-carboneconomywillne-cessitatemajorinnovationsacrossmultiplesec-tors,giventherole,scope,andinfluenceofen-ergy—theprincipalsourceofcarbonemissions

—inproductionandconsumption.

Korea’s2050nationalcarbonneutralstrategydesignatesthe“region”astheprimarygeo-graphicandadministrativeunitinwhichcar-bonneutralitymeasuresaretobeimplementedandnet-zeroultimatelyrealized.TheKoreangovernmenthasemphasizedtheimportanceofregionalareasinpromotingcarbonneutrality,statingthat“regionsarespaceswhereeconom-ic,social,andlifechangestakeplace,andlocalgovernmentsaretheactualimplementersofcarbonneutralpoliciesbysector.”2

Toaidinevaluatingtheabilityofanygivenregiontocompetentlyimplementnet-zeropol-icies,forthisstudywedesignandbuildanewindicator,theCarbon-neutralPolicyCapacityIndex(CPCI).Thistoolisdesignedtobeusedinevaluatingregionalcarbonneutralitypolicyimplementationcapacity.

1ThispaperdrawsfromYooetal.(2022),AStudyon2050CabonNeutrailtyfromthePerspectiveofRegionalPolicy:PolicyCa-pacityandStrategies,KIETresearchreport.

2MinistryofEnvironment(2021),SupportMeasuresforRegionalCarbonNeutralityImplementation-Collectionofmaterialsfor

the4thRegionalCarbonNeutralSystemConstructionContinuousForum,focusingontheBasicPlanforCarbonNeutrality.

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2.KeyConceptsoftheIndex

(1)Definition

Itisfirstnecessarytosettleonadefinitionofthetermcapacity.Inthiswork,weapproachtheconceptofcapacityfromtheperspectiveofpolicymaking.Thisisbecausetheachieve-mentofKorea’snational2050carbonneu-tralityhingesonthecapableestablishment,execution,andimplementationofpolicies.Moreover,theeffectivenessofpolicyshouldbeinterpretedinrelativisticterms;thatis,asamatterofdegrees,andnotasacompliance/non-compliancebinary.3

Aregion’scarbonneutralpolicycapacitycanthusbedefinedasitsabilitytoacceptandin-ternalizepoliciestoachievecarbonneutralitybyformingaconsensusregardingthenational2050carbonneutralityvision.Reachingcon-sensusonpolicybeginswithanunderstandingofpolicygoals,means,andimplementationprocesses.Thisunderstandingisthesourceofeffortstoachievecommongoals.Internaliza-tion,meanwhile,referstotheactofacceptinganexternalideaasone’sown.Ifinterpretedinconnectionwithregionalpolicyacceptance,internalizationthereforeisnotjustthemereacknowledgementofglobaltrendsorpolicies

andstrategiespromulgatedbythecentralgov-ernment.Inorderforaregiontoreachacon-sensusandinternalizethecentralgovernment’spolicygoals,andthenactuallyimplementthepolicyandachieveitsobjectives,theregioninquestionmustpossessvariouscompetencies.Aregion’scompetenciesaredeterminedbythehuman,physical,andintellectualassetsaccu-mulatedwithinit.Inter-regionaldifferencesincompetencies,therefore,arewhatgeneratedif-ferencesincapacity.

Vulnerabilityisanotherconceptworthdefin-inghere.Conceptuallyspeaking,vulnerabilityisroughlysimilartocapacity.TheIntergovern-mentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)definedclimatechangevulnerabilityas“theresidualimpactafteraseriesofadaptationmeasuresaretaken.”TheUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme(UNDP),meanwhile,definedvul-nerabilityas“thedegreeofriskthatasystemisexposedtoclimateharm.”4AnotherUNDPtechnicalreportdescribesvulnerabilityasafunctionofsensitivityandadaptability.5Car-bon-neutralpolicycapacitywaspreviouslydefinedas“theabilityoftheregiontoagreeonandinternalizepoliciestoachievethe2050na-tionalcarbonneutralvision.”Aconceptuallinkbetweenthecapacityandthevulnerabilitycanbefoundinthatregionswithlowcarbon-neu-

3ChaeJong-heon(2015),AStudyonPolicyDesignforPolicyAcceptanceandConflictPrevention,KoreaInstituteofPublicAd-ministration.

4HanHwa-jinetal.(2006),ClimateChangeImpactAssessmentandAdaptationSystemEstablishmentII,KoreaEnvironmentInstitute.

5UNDP(2005),Adaptationpolicyframeworksforclimatechange:Developingstrategies,policies,andmeasures,CambridgeUni-versityPress.

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tralpolicycapacityhaverelativelylowcapacitytoacceptandinternalizethe2050nationalcar-bonneutralvision,whichcanbeclassifiedascarbonneutralvulnerableregions.

However,theconceptofcapacityusedinthisstudyisdistinguishablefromtheconceptofvulnerabilityinthatitisbroaderinmeaning,andincludestheadjacentconceptofpolicyinternalization,whichisresultofconsensusbeingreachedonanapproachtonationalpolicyimplementation,andthediscoveryandexecutionofleadingpolicies.Formingconsen-

susonpolicies,internalization,andwillingnessandefforttoachievespecificobjectivescanbeseenasatypeofresponse.Theconceptofaresponseisexpectedtoplayalargerrolegoingforward,andextendswellbeyondtheideaofadaptation.

(2)IndexSystemforCalculation

TheCPCIindicatorisatwo-factorgaugeofpolicycapacity.Thetwofactorsaresensitivityandresponsiveness,asshowninTable1below.

Table1.IndexSystem:Carbon-neutralPolicyCapacityIndex

Sector

Detailedsector

Category

Variables

Sensitivity

Policytarget

Tagetindustry

Shareofthetargetindustry

Eco-friendly

economic

structure

GHGemissions

GHGemissions

GHGemissionsintensity

RateofchangeinGHGemissions

Greengrowth

ShareofSustainableEnvironmentalResourcesIndustry

ShareofResourceCirculationManagementIndustry

Responsiveness

Community

Awareness

Carbonneutralitypolicyrecognition

DevelopmentofInterestandSympathy

Necessityandurgency

Efforts,and

willingness

EstablishmentofaFoundationforPromotion

Comprehensiveresponselevel

financialindependence

Industrial

innovation

capabilities

Industrial

capabilities

Diversityofindustrialstructure

ShareofClimateChangeResponseIndustry

Difficultyinachievingcarbonneutralityintheindustrialsector

Percentageofyouthpopulation

Rateofpopulationinflowsandoutflows

Innovation

capabilities

ShareofR&Dinvestment

ShareofR&Dmanpower

Shareofknowledge-basedindustries

Shareofhigh-techindustries

Source:Theauthor.

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Varioussub-factorscontributetomeasuresofsensitivityandresponsiveness.Inthisway,wecanseethattheCPCIindicatordeterminescarbonneutralitypolicycapacitybylookingathowsensitiveaspecificregionistocar-bon-neutralpoliciesandbymeasuringin-re-gionawareness,effort,will,andcapabilities.Thehigherthesensitivitylevel,thelowerthecapacity,andthehighertheresponsiveness,thehigherthecapacity.

Adetailedoverviewoftheindicatorsystemfollows.Thepolicytargetvariableisincludedtoidentifyindustriesaffectedbythegovernment’scarbonneutralitypolicies.Thesewillbede-scribedindetaillater.

Alongwiththepolicytargetvariable,thevari-abletermedeco-friendlyeconomicstructurewassettorepresentthesensitivityfactor.Eco-friend-linesswasdefinedintermsofgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions(lowcarbon)andgreengrowth.Itwasassumedthatthemoreenvironmental-ly-friendlytheeconomicstructureofaregion,thelessaffecteditwouldbeintheprocessofpromotingcarbonneutralpolicies.GHGemis-sionsitemsincludetotalgreenhousegasemis-sions,emissionintensity,andratesofincreaseanddecreasebyregion.InadditiontoabsoluteGHGemissions,thedegreeofemissionsrelativetoproduction(emissionintensity),andchang-esinemissionsoverthepastdecadesereusedtoevaluatethecarbonintensityofaregion’seconomicstructure.Thecarbonintensityofaregion’seconomicstructurecanbeevaluatedthroughchangesinemissionsover10years.

Thenatureofaregion’seconomicstructureasdescribedbythegreengrowthvariablein-cludestheproportionofindustriesrelatedtosustainableenvironmentandresourcesandre-sourcecirculationmanagement.Bothareusedasfeederindices,andarebasedontheofficial“environmentalindustry”classification.Thesustainableenvironmentandresourcesfeed-erindexincludesactivitiesrelatedtoheatandenergyconservationandrecovery,biologicalresourcesandforestmanagement,biodiversityandlandscapeprotection,andwasteresourceenergymanagementandrecycledproductmanufacturing.Thehighertheproportionoftheseindustriesinaregion,thehighertheeco-friendlinessscoreofitseconomicstructure,andtheloweritssensitivityscore.

Thefirstfeederindexthatcontributestotheresponsivenessfactoriscalledcommunity.Itconsistsofitemssuchascommunityawareness,effort,andwillingnesstopromotecarbon-neu-tralpolicies,andrelatedevaluationindicators.Mostevaluationindicatorsincludedinthissub-factorsectorwereextractedfromsurveydata.Usingthesedata,variousfeederindicessuchascarbonneutralpolicyawareness,inter-estandconsensusformation,necessityandur-gency,promotionfoundationpreparation,andcomprehensiveresponselevelwerecombinedtoproduceoverallscoresandenableinterregionalcomparisons.Thehigherthelevelofawarenessofcarbonneutralitypoliciesinaregionandthehigherthedegreeofeffortandwillingness,thehigheritsresponsiveness.

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Thesecondsetofsub-factorscontributingtoaregion’sresponsivenessistermedindus-trialinnovationcapabilities.Thisreferstothebasiceconomicandindustrialstrengthoftheregion.Itemsthatdeterminearegion’soverallindustrialcapabilityincludeindustrialstructure,laborforce,andthelevelofdifficultyofachiev-ingcarbonneutralityintheindustrialsector.Quantitativeexpressionsofthesesub-factorswereusedasfeederindicesfortheindustrialcapabilityscore.Ifaregionwithadiversein-dustrialstructure,forexample,acrisisinoneindustrymaynotnecessarilyspreadtoothers.Thiswouldcontributetoahigherresponsive-nessscore.Theproportionofclimatechangeresponseindustrieswasalsousedasasub-in-dicatortogaugearegion’scarbon-neutralspecializedindustrialcapabilities.Theclimatechangeresponseindustryvariablereferstoin-dustriesrelatedtotheproductionofdevicesandrelatedproductsormaterialstomitigateGHGemissions,theconstructionandinstallationGHGmitigationequipment,andthedesignandoperationofGHGmitigationsystems.Itcanbeseenthatthehighertheproportionclimatechangeresponseindustriesinaregion,themoreequippeditiswithindustrialcapabilitiesrelatedtocarbonneutrality.

Theproportionoftheyouthpopulationvari-ableisadecisivefactorindeterminingthevi-talityofthelocalpopulation,whichisdirectly

relatedtoindustriallaborinaregion.Infact,regionsareconsideringyouthpopulationpoli-ciesintermsofjobsandindustry.6Inaddition,aregion’spopulationinflowandoutflowsaredeeplyrelatedtoitsindustrialcapabilities,be-causepopulationflowsaffectregionalemploy-ment.Fortheindicator,theyouthinflowandoutflowsratesserveasfeederdataforrepre-sentingindustriallaborcapacity.

Thedifficultyofachievingcarbonneutralityintheindustrialsectorvariablewasdesignedbasedontheresultsofsurveydata.Thesedataincludeanevaluationindexextractedfromthecommunitysector.Thescoreforrelativediffi-cultyfacedbyeachindustrywasdeterminedbysynthesizingtheresultsofasurveyofcompa-niesandindustryexpertsonthepossibilityofachievingcarbonneutralityineachindustry.Thedifficultyofachievingcarbonneutralityineachregionwasestimatedbasedonthepro-portionofindustryintheregion.Itcanbeseenthatthemoredifficultitistoachievecarbonneutralityinaregion’smajorindustries,theloweraregion’sresponsivenessscore.

TheevaluationindexincludesR&Dinvestmentandlabor,knowledge-basedindustries,andtheproportionofhigh-techindustries.Thesefeederindiceswereusedtomeasureknowledge-basedandknowledge-industry-basedinpreviousstud-ies.Higherscoresintheseindicescontributetoahigherresponsivenessscore.

6KimKyung-sooetal.(2022),“CharacteristicsoftheyouthpopulationinflowandoutflowinBusanandwaystomaintaintheyouthpopulation”,BusanDevelopmentInstitute.

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(3)CalculationMethod

ThemethodemployedtoestimatetheindexwasbasedonthatapproachusedincreatingtheEuropeanInnovationIndex(EISandRIS).Weappliedthemethodologyofthemostrecent(2021)versionoftheEISmutatismutandis.Fol-lowingsixpre-processingsteps,wecompiledthecomprehensivecapacityindexwiththeweightedaveragesofthestandardizedindividu-alevaluationindicators.

AswithEIS,weightswereassignedthesamevalueforeachindicator.Equation1showstheformulaforcalculatingtheCPCI.Subscriptsiandjrepresentregions(17citiesandprovinces)andindividualevaluationindicators,respective-ly,andwrefertoweights.referstoanindica-torthatstandardizestheoriginalindex.

CI=where=<Equation1>

3.PolicyScenarios

ThesalientfeatureoftheCPCIisthatitincludesavariablecalledpolicytargetaspartoftheindi-catorsystem.Asdefinedabove,carbon-neutralpolicycapacityisinterpretedintheframeworkofpolicyacceptance,andtoreflectthespecificobjectivesofthispolicy,anevaluationindexcalledproportionoftheregioninthetargetin-dustryisincludedinthepolicytargetindustryvariable.Variouspoliciesarebeingpromulgatedtocontributetotheultimategoalofachieving

thenational2050carbonneutralityvision,butopinionsremaindividedonthenatureofpoli-ciesspecificallyrelatedtotheindustrialsector,andmorespecifically,onwhichindustriestodirectlytargetviapolicymeasures.Two2050carbon-neutralscenarios,AandB,havebeenannounced.Butitisstillunknownwhichonethegovernmentwillultimatelychoose.Thepresentstudytakesthiscontingencyintocon-sideration,andindustriesthatareexpectedtobeaffectedfirstbasedonthecurrentiterationofthenationalcarbonneutralitypolicywereselectedastargetindustries.Theproportionoftheseindustriesintheregionunderanalysiswasusedinbuildingevaluationindicators.

Thetargetindustrieswereselectedbyreview-ingtheFrameworkActonCarbonNeutrality,the2030NationalGreenhouseGasReductionGoals(NDC),andthe2050CarbonNeutralSce-nario.TheFrameworkActonCarbonNeutralitystipulatesthat“anexpecteddeteriorationofthebusinessenvironmentofcompaniesdirectlyaf-fectedbycarbonneutralpoliciesoradeteriora-tionthathasalreadyoccurred”asarequirementforthedesignationofwhatthegovernmenthastermed“justconversionspecialdistricts”(Article49oftheFrameworkAct).ThedirectimpactsofcarbonneutralitypolicycanbeinferredbasedonanalysesoftheNDCandcarbonneutralsce-narios,whichincludeplanstocutemissionsincarbon-intensiveindustriessuchassteel,pet-rochemicals,andcement.Therefore,basedontheFrameworkActonCarbonNeutrality,NDC,andcarbonneutralityscenarios,threeindus-

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Table2.TargetIndustriesbyCarbonNeutralPolicyScenario

GovernmentPolicyScenarios

TagetIndustry

Ⅰ.Decarbonization

CoalMiningandThermalPowerGeneration

Ⅱ.Transitiontoaneco-friendlycar

Automobilesandpartsindustries

Ⅲ.Regulationofhigh-emittingindustries

Steel,petrochemicals,cement,oilrefiningindustries

Source:Theauthor.

triesthatareexpectedtobedirectlyaffectedinthefuturecarbonneutralizationprocesswereselectedastargetindustries,asshowninTable2.Whencalculatingtheindex,theproportionofeachtargetindustrywithintheregionwasincludedasanindividualevaluationindex.Thehighertheproportionofthetargetindustry,thehigherthesensitivity.

4.Results

(1)BaselineResults

First,weestimatedtheCPCIof17citiesandprovinceswithoutconsideringgovernmentpoli-ciestargetingspecificcarbonneutralindustries.Thatis,weexcludedthetargetindustryfeedervariable.Againstthisbackdrop,wesimulat-edvariousscenariosconsideringgovernmentpoliciesrelatedtocarbonneutrality,suchasdecarbonizationandfuturecarconversionpoli-cies.Foreachscenario,weestimatedaregionalcapacityindex,andrecordedtheimpactsofvariousgovernmentpoliciestothisindex.Wetookintoaccountthattheregionalcapacityin-dexmayvarydependingonthepolicydirection

ofthecentralgovernment,aswellasaregion’sowneffortsorcapabilities.Amongthetwoma-jorfactorsthatinformtheindex,theresultsoftheestimationwerevisuallyillustratedaspointsonaquadrant,withsensitivityasthehorizontalaxisandresponsivenessastheverticalaxis.The17citiesandprovincesweregroupedintofourcategories,basedonscoresinrelationstothenationalaverage.

ThefirstquadrantconsistsoftheprovincesofGangwon,SouthJeolla,JejuIsland,andSouthChungcheong.Theywerefoundtobethemaintargetsofthepolicyduetotheirhighsensitivityscoresandlowresponsivenessscoresunderthefirstscenariodescribedabove.Theseregionsthereforearemajorpolicytargets.Threeoftheprovinces(Gangwon,SouthJeolla,andSouthChungcheong)aremajorGHGemitters.TheislandprovinceofJejuwasfoundtopossessaweakfoundationforgreengrowthindustries.Allfourregionswerealsofoundtohavelacklusterinnovationcapabilitiesandlittlewillingnesstorespond.Ontheotherhand,theprovincesofNorthJeolla,NorthGyeongsang,SouthGyeong-sang,NorthChungcheongandthecityofDae-guwerefoundtopossesslowcarbonneutral

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Figure1.CategorizationaccordingtotheCalculationResultsofCarbon-neutralPolicyCapacityIndex:Baseline

2.50

responsiveness↑

sejong,-0.29,2.12

seoul,0.08,2.06

2.00

gyung-gi,-0.19,1.94

daejeon,-0.36,1.70

gwangju,-0.13,1.60

incheon,-0.06,1.49

chungnam,0.12,1.37

jeju,0.19,1.31

daegu,-0.24,1.22

gyungbuk,-0.30,0.96

jeonbuk,-0.30,0.92

jeonmam,0.09,0.84

0.50

→sensitivity

0.00

-0.60-0.50-0.40-0.30-0.20-0.100.000.100.200.300.40

busan,-0.29,1.50

chungbuk,-0.22,1.32

gyungnam,-0.47,0.94

gangwon,0.28,0.90

ulsan,-0.32,1.59

1.00

1.50

Source:Theauthor.

Note:Figuresafterregionalidentifiersrefertosensitivityandresponsivenessscores,respectively.Thesolidredlinesrepresenttheaveragenationalsensitivityandresponsivenessscores.

sensitivityscoresbutalsolowresponsivenessscores.Thatistosay,theseregionsmaynotbesignificantlyaffectedbycarbonneutralityintheshortterm,butpolicieswillberequiredtoin-creasetheirresponsivenessinthelong-term,astheyareatriskoflosingcompetitivenessintheeraofcarbonneutralityduetotheirfeeblein-dustrialstructureandlimitedinnovationcapa-bilities.MetropolitanareasincludingthecitiesofBusan,Ulsan,Daejeon,SejongaswellastheprovinceofGyeonggirepresentthethirdcat-egory.Theseplaceshavelowsensitivityscoresandhighresponsivenessscores.Ascarbonneutralityisexpectedtobeusedasaregionaldevelopmentstrategythatenhancesresponsecapabilitiesandmitigatessensitivity,regional

supportpoliciesrelatedtocarbonneutralitythatspecificallytargettheseregionsareunlikelytobemajorgovernmentpriorities.Finally,thecitiesofSeoul,Gwangju,andIncheonrepresentthelastcategory.Theseareregionswithhighsensitivityscoresbutalsohighresponsivenessscores.However,thesensitivityandresponsive-nessscoresforGwangjuandIncheonareclosetothenationalaverage,andsomaybeaffectedbasedonthedevelopmentofcarbonneutralityorgovernmentpolicygoingforward.

(2)Scenario-specificResults

Now,were-runtheestimationwhiletakingintoaccountgovernmentpolicy.Theresultsareas

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follows.Underthegovernment’sdecarboniza-tionpolicyscenario,regionalsensitivitytend-edtoincreaseoverallcomparedtobaseline.Inparticular,carbonneutralsensitivityscoresincreasedsignificantlyinareaswithahighpro-portionoftargetindustriessuchasGangwon,SouthChungcheong,andSouthJeolla.There-sultsfortheregionsofSouthJeolla,Gangwon,JejuIsland,andSouthChungcheongwerenotmuchdifferentfromthebasicscenario;theseregionswerealreadyquitesensitiveunderthebaselinescenario,andthegovernment’sspecif-icindustrialpoliciesonlymadethemmoreso.Evenunderthefuturecartransitionscenario,theoverallsensitivityscoresoftheseregionincreased.Moreover,someregionscategoriza-tionschanges.Regionswithahighproportionofindustriesintheautomotivesectorandad-jacentindustriesweregreatlyaffected,suchasUlsan,SouthChungcheong,SouthGyeongsang,andNorthGyeongsang.SouthGyeongsang,NorthGyeongsang,Gangwon,JejuIsland,andSouthChungcheonginparticularallpostedhighsensitivityscoresandlowresponsivenessscores.Therearefearsthattheseareaswill

greatlysufferfrompoliciesthataimtoreduceproductionorconsumptionofinternalcom-bustionengines.Policymakersshouldtakeintoconsiderationthepotentialforcarbonneu-tralitypolicytosignificantlyimpactregionalcompetitivenessinregionswithweakoverallregionalindustrialorinnovationcapabilities.Finally,underthemulti-emissionindustryregu-lationscenario,sensitivityscoresincreasedthemostformanyregions.Thisisnumerousindus-tries,includingpetrochemicals,oilrefining,andcementareincludedinthepolicy.TheregionsofSouthJeolla,Gangwon,NorthGyeongsang,NorthChungcheong,andSouthChungcheongallrecordedhighsensitivityscoresandlowresponsivenessscoresunderthisscenario.SouthJeollaishometoahighproportionofsteelandpetrochemicalsfirms;GangwonandSouthChungcheongprovincehostmanyce-mentfactories.SouthChungcheongandNorthGyeongsangarehometorobuststeelindustries.Andsosensitivityscoresintheseregionsareallparticularlyhighunderascenarioinwhichthegovernmentintroducesregulationsoncar-bon-multi-emissionindustries.

Table3.LowCapacityRegionsbyScenario

GovernmentPolicyScenarios

Lowcapacityregions(correspondingtothefourthquadrant)

Baseline(nopolicyconsidered)

Gangwon,Jeonnam,Jeju,Chungnam

Ⅰ.Decarbonizationpolicy

Gangwon,Jeonnam,Chungnam,Jeju

Ⅱ.Transitiontoaneco-friendlycarpolicy

Gangwon,Chungnam,Gyeongbuk,Gyeongnam,Jeju

Ⅲ.Regulationofhigh-emittingindustriespolicy

Jeonnam,Gangwon,Chungnam,Gyeongbuk,Chungbuk

Source:Theauthor.

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5.Discussion

LookingattheCPCIindexscores,weseethattheprovincesofGangwon,SouthJeolla,JejuIsland,andSouthChungcheongarethemaintargetsofthepolicyduetotheirhighcarbonneutralsensitivityscoresandlowresponsive-nessscores.Observedcapacityvariesslightlybysub-regiondependingonthegovernmentpol-icyscenario.However,theregionsofGangwonandSouthChungcheongwerefoundtobemostaffectedbycarbonneutralitypolicy,inthatshowedhighsensitivityscoresunderallpolicyscenarios(decarbonization,futurecarconver-sion,multi-emissionindustryregulations,etc.).SouthJeollawasalsofoundtoexhibithighsen-sitivityscoresunderthevariouspolicyscenarios.Itwasdirectlyaffectedbythescenariofeaturingregulationsoncarbon-multi-emissionindustriesgivenitsindustrialstructure,inwhichthesteelandpetrochemicalsindustriesaccountforahighproportionofGHGemissionsintheregion.Meanwhile,inareaswithastrongtraditionalmanufacturingstructure,suchasSouthGyeo-ngsangandthecityofUlsan,sensitivityscorestendedshootupunderthefuturecarconversionandmulti-emissionindustryregulationpolicyscenarios.Thisisbecausecarbonneutralitypol-icytendstodirectlyaffectlarge-scaleindustriessuchasautomobilesandpetrochemicals.Basedonouranalysis,wearguethatitisnecessaryforsensitiveregionstoupgradetheirindustrialstructuretoonecenteredonlow-carbonman-ufacturing,utilizingexistingstrengthsintradi-

tionalandlegacymanufacturing.

Overall,wealsofoundresponsivenessscoresweregenerallyhigherincitiesthaninprovinc-es,saveonlyforGyeonggiprovince,thedense-ly-populatedurbanconurbationthatsurroundsthecityofSeoulproperandthecitiesofwhichconstitutetheSeoulsuburbs.Seoul,Gyeonggi,andDaejeon,werefoundtopossessstrongin-novationcapabilitiescomparedtothenationalaverage,andareexpectedtohavethecapacitynecessarytoactivelyrespondtochangesintheexternalenvironmentpro