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CurrentIssue
TowardNet-zero:AssessingRegionalCarbonPolicyCapacityinKorea1
YooYiseon
1.Introduction
InKorea,thepushtoachievecarbonneutralityandreachnet-zerocarbonemissionsby2050constitutesamonumentalparadigmshift,andeffortstofacilitatethismomentouschangearepoisedtoexertasignificantimpactontheeconomy,industry,andsocietyasawhole.Re-alizingKorea’snationalcarbonneutralityvisionrequireswholesalechangestotheeconomy,industry,andeventhedailylivesofeverydaypeople.Andinthepursuitofnet-zero,thesechangeswillnotbelimitedtospecificsectorsortechnologies,andarelikelytodevelopandevolveindiverseways.Convertingtheexist-ingcarbon-intensiveindustrialstructuretoalow-carbonorzero-carboneconomywillne-cessitatemajorinnovationsacrossmultiplesec-tors,giventherole,scope,andinfluenceofen-ergy—theprincipalsourceofcarbonemissions
—inproductionandconsumption.
Korea’s2050nationalcarbonneutralstrategydesignatesthe“region”astheprimarygeo-graphicandadministrativeunitinwhichcar-bonneutralitymeasuresaretobeimplementedandnet-zeroultimatelyrealized.TheKoreangovernmenthasemphasizedtheimportanceofregionalareasinpromotingcarbonneutrality,statingthat“regionsarespaceswhereeconom-ic,social,andlifechangestakeplace,andlocalgovernmentsaretheactualimplementersofcarbonneutralpoliciesbysector.”2
Toaidinevaluatingtheabilityofanygivenregiontocompetentlyimplementnet-zeropol-icies,forthisstudywedesignandbuildanewindicator,theCarbon-neutralPolicyCapacityIndex(CPCI).Thistoolisdesignedtobeusedinevaluatingregionalcarbonneutralitypolicyimplementationcapacity.
1ThispaperdrawsfromYooetal.(2022),AStudyon2050CabonNeutrailtyfromthePerspectiveofRegionalPolicy:PolicyCa-pacityandStrategies,KIETresearchreport.
2MinistryofEnvironment(2021),SupportMeasuresforRegionalCarbonNeutralityImplementation-Collectionofmaterialsfor
the4thRegionalCarbonNeutralSystemConstructionContinuousForum,focusingontheBasicPlanforCarbonNeutrality.
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2.KeyConceptsoftheIndex
(1)Definition
Itisfirstnecessarytosettleonadefinitionofthetermcapacity.Inthiswork,weapproachtheconceptofcapacityfromtheperspectiveofpolicymaking.Thisisbecausetheachieve-mentofKorea’snational2050carbonneu-tralityhingesonthecapableestablishment,execution,andimplementationofpolicies.Moreover,theeffectivenessofpolicyshouldbeinterpretedinrelativisticterms;thatis,asamatterofdegrees,andnotasacompliance/non-compliancebinary.3
Aregion’scarbonneutralpolicycapacitycanthusbedefinedasitsabilitytoacceptandin-ternalizepoliciestoachievecarbonneutralitybyformingaconsensusregardingthenational2050carbonneutralityvision.Reachingcon-sensusonpolicybeginswithanunderstandingofpolicygoals,means,andimplementationprocesses.Thisunderstandingisthesourceofeffortstoachievecommongoals.Internaliza-tion,meanwhile,referstotheactofacceptinganexternalideaasone’sown.Ifinterpretedinconnectionwithregionalpolicyacceptance,internalizationthereforeisnotjustthemereacknowledgementofglobaltrendsorpolicies
andstrategiespromulgatedbythecentralgov-ernment.Inorderforaregiontoreachacon-sensusandinternalizethecentralgovernment’spolicygoals,andthenactuallyimplementthepolicyandachieveitsobjectives,theregioninquestionmustpossessvariouscompetencies.Aregion’scompetenciesaredeterminedbythehuman,physical,andintellectualassetsaccu-mulatedwithinit.Inter-regionaldifferencesincompetencies,therefore,arewhatgeneratedif-ferencesincapacity.
Vulnerabilityisanotherconceptworthdefin-inghere.Conceptuallyspeaking,vulnerabilityisroughlysimilartocapacity.TheIntergovern-mentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)definedclimatechangevulnerabilityas“theresidualimpactafteraseriesofadaptationmeasuresaretaken.”TheUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme(UNDP),meanwhile,definedvul-nerabilityas“thedegreeofriskthatasystemisexposedtoclimateharm.”4AnotherUNDPtechnicalreportdescribesvulnerabilityasafunctionofsensitivityandadaptability.5Car-bon-neutralpolicycapacitywaspreviouslydefinedas“theabilityoftheregiontoagreeonandinternalizepoliciestoachievethe2050na-tionalcarbonneutralvision.”Aconceptuallinkbetweenthecapacityandthevulnerabilitycanbefoundinthatregionswithlowcarbon-neu-
3ChaeJong-heon(2015),AStudyonPolicyDesignforPolicyAcceptanceandConflictPrevention,KoreaInstituteofPublicAd-ministration.
4HanHwa-jinetal.(2006),ClimateChangeImpactAssessmentandAdaptationSystemEstablishmentII,KoreaEnvironmentInstitute.
5UNDP(2005),Adaptationpolicyframeworksforclimatechange:Developingstrategies,policies,andmeasures,CambridgeUni-versityPress.
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tralpolicycapacityhaverelativelylowcapacitytoacceptandinternalizethe2050nationalcar-bonneutralvision,whichcanbeclassifiedascarbonneutralvulnerableregions.
However,theconceptofcapacityusedinthisstudyisdistinguishablefromtheconceptofvulnerabilityinthatitisbroaderinmeaning,andincludestheadjacentconceptofpolicyinternalization,whichisresultofconsensusbeingreachedonanapproachtonationalpolicyimplementation,andthediscoveryandexecutionofleadingpolicies.Formingconsen-
susonpolicies,internalization,andwillingnessandefforttoachievespecificobjectivescanbeseenasatypeofresponse.Theconceptofaresponseisexpectedtoplayalargerrolegoingforward,andextendswellbeyondtheideaofadaptation.
(2)IndexSystemforCalculation
TheCPCIindicatorisatwo-factorgaugeofpolicycapacity.Thetwofactorsaresensitivityandresponsiveness,asshowninTable1below.
Table1.IndexSystem:Carbon-neutralPolicyCapacityIndex
Sector
Detailedsector
Category
Variables
Sensitivity
Policytarget
Tagetindustry
Shareofthetargetindustry
Eco-friendly
economic
structure
GHGemissions
GHGemissions
GHGemissionsintensity
RateofchangeinGHGemissions
Greengrowth
ShareofSustainableEnvironmentalResourcesIndustry
ShareofResourceCirculationManagementIndustry
Responsiveness
Community
Awareness
Carbonneutralitypolicyrecognition
DevelopmentofInterestandSympathy
Necessityandurgency
Efforts,and
willingness
EstablishmentofaFoundationforPromotion
Comprehensiveresponselevel
financialindependence
Industrial
innovation
capabilities
Industrial
capabilities
Diversityofindustrialstructure
ShareofClimateChangeResponseIndustry
Difficultyinachievingcarbonneutralityintheindustrialsector
Percentageofyouthpopulation
Rateofpopulationinflowsandoutflows
Innovation
capabilities
ShareofR&Dinvestment
ShareofR&Dmanpower
Shareofknowledge-basedindustries
Shareofhigh-techindustries
Source:Theauthor.
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Varioussub-factorscontributetomeasuresofsensitivityandresponsiveness.Inthisway,wecanseethattheCPCIindicatordeterminescarbonneutralitypolicycapacitybylookingathowsensitiveaspecificregionistocar-bon-neutralpoliciesandbymeasuringin-re-gionawareness,effort,will,andcapabilities.Thehigherthesensitivitylevel,thelowerthecapacity,andthehighertheresponsiveness,thehigherthecapacity.
Adetailedoverviewoftheindicatorsystemfollows.Thepolicytargetvariableisincludedtoidentifyindustriesaffectedbythegovernment’scarbonneutralitypolicies.Thesewillbede-scribedindetaillater.
Alongwiththepolicytargetvariable,thevari-abletermedeco-friendlyeconomicstructurewassettorepresentthesensitivityfactor.Eco-friend-linesswasdefinedintermsofgreenhousegas(GHG)emissions(lowcarbon)andgreengrowth.Itwasassumedthatthemoreenvironmental-ly-friendlytheeconomicstructureofaregion,thelessaffecteditwouldbeintheprocessofpromotingcarbonneutralpolicies.GHGemis-sionsitemsincludetotalgreenhousegasemis-sions,emissionintensity,andratesofincreaseanddecreasebyregion.InadditiontoabsoluteGHGemissions,thedegreeofemissionsrelativetoproduction(emissionintensity),andchang-esinemissionsoverthepastdecadesereusedtoevaluatethecarbonintensityofaregion’seconomicstructure.Thecarbonintensityofaregion’seconomicstructurecanbeevaluatedthroughchangesinemissionsover10years.
Thenatureofaregion’seconomicstructureasdescribedbythegreengrowthvariablein-cludestheproportionofindustriesrelatedtosustainableenvironmentandresourcesandre-sourcecirculationmanagement.Bothareusedasfeederindices,andarebasedontheofficial“environmentalindustry”classification.Thesustainableenvironmentandresourcesfeed-erindexincludesactivitiesrelatedtoheatandenergyconservationandrecovery,biologicalresourcesandforestmanagement,biodiversityandlandscapeprotection,andwasteresourceenergymanagementandrecycledproductmanufacturing.Thehighertheproportionoftheseindustriesinaregion,thehighertheeco-friendlinessscoreofitseconomicstructure,andtheloweritssensitivityscore.
Thefirstfeederindexthatcontributestotheresponsivenessfactoriscalledcommunity.Itconsistsofitemssuchascommunityawareness,effort,andwillingnesstopromotecarbon-neu-tralpolicies,andrelatedevaluationindicators.Mostevaluationindicatorsincludedinthissub-factorsectorwereextractedfromsurveydata.Usingthesedata,variousfeederindicessuchascarbonneutralpolicyawareness,inter-estandconsensusformation,necessityandur-gency,promotionfoundationpreparation,andcomprehensiveresponselevelwerecombinedtoproduceoverallscoresandenableinterregionalcomparisons.Thehigherthelevelofawarenessofcarbonneutralitypoliciesinaregionandthehigherthedegreeofeffortandwillingness,thehigheritsresponsiveness.
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Thesecondsetofsub-factorscontributingtoaregion’sresponsivenessistermedindus-trialinnovationcapabilities.Thisreferstothebasiceconomicandindustrialstrengthoftheregion.Itemsthatdeterminearegion’soverallindustrialcapabilityincludeindustrialstructure,laborforce,andthelevelofdifficultyofachiev-ingcarbonneutralityintheindustrialsector.Quantitativeexpressionsofthesesub-factorswereusedasfeederindicesfortheindustrialcapabilityscore.Ifaregionwithadiversein-dustrialstructure,forexample,acrisisinoneindustrymaynotnecessarilyspreadtoothers.Thiswouldcontributetoahigherresponsive-nessscore.Theproportionofclimatechangeresponseindustrieswasalsousedasasub-in-dicatortogaugearegion’scarbon-neutralspecializedindustrialcapabilities.Theclimatechangeresponseindustryvariablereferstoin-dustriesrelatedtotheproductionofdevicesandrelatedproductsormaterialstomitigateGHGemissions,theconstructionandinstallationGHGmitigationequipment,andthedesignandoperationofGHGmitigationsystems.Itcanbeseenthatthehighertheproportionclimatechangeresponseindustriesinaregion,themoreequippeditiswithindustrialcapabilitiesrelatedtocarbonneutrality.
Theproportionoftheyouthpopulationvari-ableisadecisivefactorindeterminingthevi-talityofthelocalpopulation,whichisdirectly
relatedtoindustriallaborinaregion.Infact,regionsareconsideringyouthpopulationpoli-ciesintermsofjobsandindustry.6Inaddition,aregion’spopulationinflowandoutflowsaredeeplyrelatedtoitsindustrialcapabilities,be-causepopulationflowsaffectregionalemploy-ment.Fortheindicator,theyouthinflowandoutflowsratesserveasfeederdataforrepre-sentingindustriallaborcapacity.
Thedifficultyofachievingcarbonneutralityintheindustrialsectorvariablewasdesignedbasedontheresultsofsurveydata.Thesedataincludeanevaluationindexextractedfromthecommunitysector.Thescoreforrelativediffi-cultyfacedbyeachindustrywasdeterminedbysynthesizingtheresultsofasurveyofcompa-niesandindustryexpertsonthepossibilityofachievingcarbonneutralityineachindustry.Thedifficultyofachievingcarbonneutralityineachregionwasestimatedbasedonthepro-portionofindustryintheregion.Itcanbeseenthatthemoredifficultitistoachievecarbonneutralityinaregion’smajorindustries,theloweraregion’sresponsivenessscore.
TheevaluationindexincludesR&Dinvestmentandlabor,knowledge-basedindustries,andtheproportionofhigh-techindustries.Thesefeederindiceswereusedtomeasureknowledge-basedandknowledge-industry-basedinpreviousstud-ies.Higherscoresintheseindicescontributetoahigherresponsivenessscore.
6KimKyung-sooetal.(2022),“CharacteristicsoftheyouthpopulationinflowandoutflowinBusanandwaystomaintaintheyouthpopulation”,BusanDevelopmentInstitute.
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KIETIndustrialEconomicReview
(3)CalculationMethod
ThemethodemployedtoestimatetheindexwasbasedonthatapproachusedincreatingtheEuropeanInnovationIndex(EISandRIS).Weappliedthemethodologyofthemostrecent(2021)versionoftheEISmutatismutandis.Fol-lowingsixpre-processingsteps,wecompiledthecomprehensivecapacityindexwiththeweightedaveragesofthestandardizedindividu-alevaluationindicators.
AswithEIS,weightswereassignedthesamevalueforeachindicator.Equation1showstheformulaforcalculatingtheCPCI.Subscriptsiandjrepresentregions(17citiesandprovinces)andindividualevaluationindicators,respective-ly,andwrefertoweights.referstoanindica-torthatstandardizestheoriginalindex.
CI=where=<Equation1>
3.PolicyScenarios
ThesalientfeatureoftheCPCIisthatitincludesavariablecalledpolicytargetaspartoftheindi-catorsystem.Asdefinedabove,carbon-neutralpolicycapacityisinterpretedintheframeworkofpolicyacceptance,andtoreflectthespecificobjectivesofthispolicy,anevaluationindexcalledproportionoftheregioninthetargetin-dustryisincludedinthepolicytargetindustryvariable.Variouspoliciesarebeingpromulgatedtocontributetotheultimategoalofachieving
thenational2050carbonneutralityvision,butopinionsremaindividedonthenatureofpoli-ciesspecificallyrelatedtotheindustrialsector,andmorespecifically,onwhichindustriestodirectlytargetviapolicymeasures.Two2050carbon-neutralscenarios,AandB,havebeenannounced.Butitisstillunknownwhichonethegovernmentwillultimatelychoose.Thepresentstudytakesthiscontingencyintocon-sideration,andindustriesthatareexpectedtobeaffectedfirstbasedonthecurrentiterationofthenationalcarbonneutralitypolicywereselectedastargetindustries.Theproportionoftheseindustriesintheregionunderanalysiswasusedinbuildingevaluationindicators.
Thetargetindustrieswereselectedbyreview-ingtheFrameworkActonCarbonNeutrality,the2030NationalGreenhouseGasReductionGoals(NDC),andthe2050CarbonNeutralSce-nario.TheFrameworkActonCarbonNeutralitystipulatesthat“anexpecteddeteriorationofthebusinessenvironmentofcompaniesdirectlyaf-fectedbycarbonneutralpoliciesoradeteriora-tionthathasalreadyoccurred”asarequirementforthedesignationofwhatthegovernmenthastermed“justconversionspecialdistricts”(Article49oftheFrameworkAct).ThedirectimpactsofcarbonneutralitypolicycanbeinferredbasedonanalysesoftheNDCandcarbonneutralsce-narios,whichincludeplanstocutemissionsincarbon-intensiveindustriessuchassteel,pet-rochemicals,andcement.Therefore,basedontheFrameworkActonCarbonNeutrality,NDC,andcarbonneutralityscenarios,threeindus-
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July+August2023|Vol.28No.4
Table2.TargetIndustriesbyCarbonNeutralPolicyScenario
GovernmentPolicyScenarios
TagetIndustry
Ⅰ.Decarbonization
CoalMiningandThermalPowerGeneration
Ⅱ.Transitiontoaneco-friendlycar
Automobilesandpartsindustries
Ⅲ.Regulationofhigh-emittingindustries
Steel,petrochemicals,cement,oilrefiningindustries
Source:Theauthor.
triesthatareexpectedtobedirectlyaffectedinthefuturecarbonneutralizationprocesswereselectedastargetindustries,asshowninTable2.Whencalculatingtheindex,theproportionofeachtargetindustrywithintheregionwasincludedasanindividualevaluationindex.Thehighertheproportionofthetargetindustry,thehigherthesensitivity.
4.Results
(1)BaselineResults
First,weestimatedtheCPCIof17citiesandprovinceswithoutconsideringgovernmentpoli-ciestargetingspecificcarbonneutralindustries.Thatis,weexcludedthetargetindustryfeedervariable.Againstthisbackdrop,wesimulat-edvariousscenariosconsideringgovernmentpoliciesrelatedtocarbonneutrality,suchasdecarbonizationandfuturecarconversionpoli-cies.Foreachscenario,weestimatedaregionalcapacityindex,andrecordedtheimpactsofvariousgovernmentpoliciestothisindex.Wetookintoaccountthattheregionalcapacityin-dexmayvarydependingonthepolicydirection
ofthecentralgovernment,aswellasaregion’sowneffortsorcapabilities.Amongthetwoma-jorfactorsthatinformtheindex,theresultsoftheestimationwerevisuallyillustratedaspointsonaquadrant,withsensitivityasthehorizontalaxisandresponsivenessastheverticalaxis.The17citiesandprovincesweregroupedintofourcategories,basedonscoresinrelationstothenationalaverage.
ThefirstquadrantconsistsoftheprovincesofGangwon,SouthJeolla,JejuIsland,andSouthChungcheong.Theywerefoundtobethemaintargetsofthepolicyduetotheirhighsensitivityscoresandlowresponsivenessscoresunderthefirstscenariodescribedabove.Theseregionsthereforearemajorpolicytargets.Threeoftheprovinces(Gangwon,SouthJeolla,andSouthChungcheong)aremajorGHGemitters.TheislandprovinceofJejuwasfoundtopossessaweakfoundationforgreengrowthindustries.Allfourregionswerealsofoundtohavelacklusterinnovationcapabilitiesandlittlewillingnesstorespond.Ontheotherhand,theprovincesofNorthJeolla,NorthGyeongsang,SouthGyeong-sang,NorthChungcheongandthecityofDae-guwerefoundtopossesslowcarbonneutral
25
KIETIndustrialEconomicReview
Figure1.CategorizationaccordingtotheCalculationResultsofCarbon-neutralPolicyCapacityIndex:Baseline
2.50
responsiveness↑
sejong,-0.29,2.12
seoul,0.08,2.06
2.00
gyung-gi,-0.19,1.94
daejeon,-0.36,1.70
gwangju,-0.13,1.60
incheon,-0.06,1.49
chungnam,0.12,1.37
jeju,0.19,1.31
daegu,-0.24,1.22
gyungbuk,-0.30,0.96
jeonbuk,-0.30,0.92
jeonmam,0.09,0.84
0.50
→sensitivity
0.00
-0.60-0.50-0.40-0.30-0.20-0.100.000.100.200.300.40
busan,-0.29,1.50
chungbuk,-0.22,1.32
gyungnam,-0.47,0.94
gangwon,0.28,0.90
ulsan,-0.32,1.59
1.00
1.50
Source:Theauthor.
Note:Figuresafterregionalidentifiersrefertosensitivityandresponsivenessscores,respectively.Thesolidredlinesrepresenttheaveragenationalsensitivityandresponsivenessscores.
sensitivityscoresbutalsolowresponsivenessscores.Thatistosay,theseregionsmaynotbesignificantlyaffectedbycarbonneutralityintheshortterm,butpolicieswillberequiredtoin-creasetheirresponsivenessinthelong-term,astheyareatriskoflosingcompetitivenessintheeraofcarbonneutralityduetotheirfeeblein-dustrialstructureandlimitedinnovationcapa-bilities.MetropolitanareasincludingthecitiesofBusan,Ulsan,Daejeon,SejongaswellastheprovinceofGyeonggirepresentthethirdcat-egory.Theseplaceshavelowsensitivityscoresandhighresponsivenessscores.Ascarbonneutralityisexpectedtobeusedasaregionaldevelopmentstrategythatenhancesresponsecapabilitiesandmitigatessensitivity,regional
supportpoliciesrelatedtocarbonneutralitythatspecificallytargettheseregionsareunlikelytobemajorgovernmentpriorities.Finally,thecitiesofSeoul,Gwangju,andIncheonrepresentthelastcategory.Theseareregionswithhighsensitivityscoresbutalsohighresponsivenessscores.However,thesensitivityandresponsive-nessscoresforGwangjuandIncheonareclosetothenationalaverage,andsomaybeaffectedbasedonthedevelopmentofcarbonneutralityorgovernmentpolicygoingforward.
(2)Scenario-specificResults
Now,were-runtheestimationwhiletakingintoaccountgovernmentpolicy.Theresultsareas
26
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27
follows.Underthegovernment’sdecarboniza-tionpolicyscenario,regionalsensitivitytend-edtoincreaseoverallcomparedtobaseline.Inparticular,carbonneutralsensitivityscoresincreasedsignificantlyinareaswithahighpro-portionoftargetindustriessuchasGangwon,SouthChungcheong,andSouthJeolla.There-sultsfortheregionsofSouthJeolla,Gangwon,JejuIsland,andSouthChungcheongwerenotmuchdifferentfromthebasicscenario;theseregionswerealreadyquitesensitiveunderthebaselinescenario,andthegovernment’sspecif-icindustrialpoliciesonlymadethemmoreso.Evenunderthefuturecartransitionscenario,theoverallsensitivityscoresoftheseregionincreased.Moreover,someregionscategoriza-tionschanges.Regionswithahighproportionofindustriesintheautomotivesectorandad-jacentindustriesweregreatlyaffected,suchasUlsan,SouthChungcheong,SouthGyeongsang,andNorthGyeongsang.SouthGyeongsang,NorthGyeongsang,Gangwon,JejuIsland,andSouthChungcheonginparticularallpostedhighsensitivityscoresandlowresponsivenessscores.Therearefearsthattheseareaswill
greatlysufferfrompoliciesthataimtoreduceproductionorconsumptionofinternalcom-bustionengines.Policymakersshouldtakeintoconsiderationthepotentialforcarbonneu-tralitypolicytosignificantlyimpactregionalcompetitivenessinregionswithweakoverallregionalindustrialorinnovationcapabilities.Finally,underthemulti-emissionindustryregu-lationscenario,sensitivityscoresincreasedthemostformanyregions.Thisisnumerousindus-tries,includingpetrochemicals,oilrefining,andcementareincludedinthepolicy.TheregionsofSouthJeolla,Gangwon,NorthGyeongsang,NorthChungcheong,andSouthChungcheongallrecordedhighsensitivityscoresandlowresponsivenessscoresunderthisscenario.SouthJeollaishometoahighproportionofsteelandpetrochemicalsfirms;GangwonandSouthChungcheongprovincehostmanyce-mentfactories.SouthChungcheongandNorthGyeongsangarehometorobuststeelindustries.Andsosensitivityscoresintheseregionsareallparticularlyhighunderascenarioinwhichthegovernmentintroducesregulationsoncar-bon-multi-emissionindustries.
Table3.LowCapacityRegionsbyScenario
GovernmentPolicyScenarios
Lowcapacityregions(correspondingtothefourthquadrant)
Baseline(nopolicyconsidered)
Gangwon,Jeonnam,Jeju,Chungnam
Ⅰ.Decarbonizationpolicy
Gangwon,Jeonnam,Chungnam,Jeju
Ⅱ.Transitiontoaneco-friendlycarpolicy
Gangwon,Chungnam,Gyeongbuk,Gyeongnam,Jeju
Ⅲ.Regulationofhigh-emittingindustriespolicy
Jeonnam,Gangwon,Chungnam,Gyeongbuk,Chungbuk
Source:Theauthor.
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5.Discussion
LookingattheCPCIindexscores,weseethattheprovincesofGangwon,SouthJeolla,JejuIsland,andSouthChungcheongarethemaintargetsofthepolicyduetotheirhighcarbonneutralsensitivityscoresandlowresponsive-nessscores.Observedcapacityvariesslightlybysub-regiondependingonthegovernmentpol-icyscenario.However,theregionsofGangwonandSouthChungcheongwerefoundtobemostaffectedbycarbonneutralitypolicy,inthatshowedhighsensitivityscoresunderallpolicyscenarios(decarbonization,futurecarconver-sion,multi-emissionindustryregulations,etc.).SouthJeollawasalsofoundtoexhibithighsen-sitivityscoresunderthevariouspolicyscenarios.Itwasdirectlyaffectedbythescenariofeaturingregulationsoncarbon-multi-emissionindustriesgivenitsindustrialstructure,inwhichthesteelandpetrochemicalsindustriesaccountforahighproportionofGHGemissionsintheregion.Meanwhile,inareaswithastrongtraditionalmanufacturingstructure,suchasSouthGyeo-ngsangandthecityofUlsan,sensitivityscorestendedshootupunderthefuturecarconversionandmulti-emissionindustryregulationpolicyscenarios.Thisisbecausecarbonneutralitypol-icytendstodirectlyaffectlarge-scaleindustriessuchasautomobilesandpetrochemicals.Basedonouranalysis,wearguethatitisnecessaryforsensitiveregionstoupgradetheirindustrialstructuretoonecenteredonlow-carbonman-ufacturing,utilizingexistingstrengthsintradi-
tionalandlegacymanufacturing.
Overall,wealsofoundresponsivenessscoresweregenerallyhigherincitiesthaninprovinc-es,saveonlyforGyeonggiprovince,thedense-ly-populatedurbanconurbationthatsurroundsthecityofSeoulproperandthecitiesofwhichconstitutetheSeoulsuburbs.Seoul,Gyeonggi,andDaejeon,werefoundtopossessstrongin-novationcapabilitiescomparedtothenationalaverage,andareexpectedtohavethecapacitynecessarytoactivelyrespondtochangesintheexternalenvironmentpro
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