挑戰(zhàn)者號失事標(biāo)準(zhǔn)規(guī)定樣式分析及決策分析

_山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)管理決策期末作業(yè)Task1 翻譯Task2 案例分析_班級： 項(xiàng)目管理二班小組：成員：日期： 2013/12/23_翻譯Group Decision Fiascoes Continue:精品文檔放心下載SpaceShuttleChallengerandaRevisedGroupthink感謝閱讀FrameworkGregoryMoorhead,iRichardFerence,i謝謝閱讀andChrisP.NeckiThis paper reviews the decision感謝閱讀situationsurroun1gthedecisionto精品文檔放心下載launchthespaceshuttleChallengerin謝謝閱讀January 1986 in the light of the感謝閱讀groupthink hypothesis. A revised精品文檔放心下載frameworkispresentedthatproposes感謝閱讀time and leadership style as謝謝閱讀moderatorsofthemannerinwhich感謝閱讀group characteristics lead to精品文檔放心下載groupthinksymptoms.KEYWORDS:groupthink;Challenger;感謝閱讀decisionmaking;groupcharacteristics.精品文檔放心下載INTRODUCTIONIn1972,anewdimensionwas感謝閱讀addedtoourunderstandingofgroup精品文檔放心下載

decisionmakingwiththeproposalof謝謝閱讀the groupthink hypothesis by精品文檔放心下載Janis(1972).JaIlis coined the term精品文檔放心下載"groupthink"toreferto"amodeof謝謝閱讀thinkingthatpeopleengageinwhen精品文檔放心下載theyaredeeplyinvolvedinacohesive感謝閱讀in-group,whenthemembers'striving感謝閱讀forunanimityoverridetheirmotivation感謝閱讀torealistically appraise altemative精品文檔放心下載coursesofaction"(Janis,1972,p.8).感謝閱讀Thehypothesiswassupportedbyhis謝謝閱讀hindsight analysis of several感謝閱讀political-military fiascoes and感謝閱讀successesthataredifferentiatedbythe感謝閱讀occurrence or non-occurrence of精品文檔放心下載antecedent conditions, groupthink精品文檔放心下載symptoms, and decision making謝謝閱讀defects.In a subsequent volume,JaniS感謝閱讀furtherexplicatesthetheoryandadds謝謝閱讀ananalysisoftheWatergatetranscripts感謝閱讀andvariouspublishedmemoirsand謝謝閱讀_accounts of principals involved,精品文檔放心下載concluding that the Watergate謝謝閱讀cover-updecisionalsowasaresultof精品文檔放心下載groupthink(Janis,1983).Bothvolumes感謝閱讀proposeprescriptionsforpreventing感謝閱讀theoccurrenceofgroupthink,manyof謝謝閱讀whichhave群體決策Fiascoes繼續(xù)：航天飛機(jī)Challenger和經(jīng)修訂的群體思維框架格雷戈里·穆爾黑德，我理查德·費(fèi)倫斯，我和ChrisP.Necki感謝閱讀本文回顧了形勢surroun曲1G到發(fā)射挑戰(zhàn)者號航天飛機(jī)于1986年1月在群體思維假說的光的決定的決定。修改后的框架提出了建議時間和領(lǐng)導(dǎo)風(fēng)格的方式版主其中群體特征導(dǎo)致群體思維癥狀。謝謝閱讀

關(guān)鍵詞：群體思維;挑戰(zhàn)者;決策;群體特征。引言1972年，一個新的層面加入群決策的群體思維假設(shè)由賈尼斯（1972）建議的理解。JaIlis創(chuàng)造了“群體思維”一詞來指“思維的人從事，當(dāng)他們的模式深深卷入組，當(dāng)成員的爭創(chuàng)一致重寫他們的動機(jī)評估行動課程精品文檔放心下載“（詹尼斯，1972年，第8頁）一個有凝聚力的。被他事后幾個政治軍事fiascoes和成功是由先前的狀況的發(fā)生或不發(fā)生分化，群體思維癥狀和決策的缺陷分析支持。感謝閱讀在隨后的體積，詹尼斯進(jìn)一步闡述理論，并增加了水門事件的成績單和各種出版的回憶錄，涉及校長的賬目進(jìn)行分析，得出的結(jié)論是水門事件精品文檔放心下載_掩蓋決定也為群體思維（詹尼斯，1983）的結(jié)果。兩卷提出處方，以防止群體思維的發(fā)生，management textbooks. Multiple謝謝閱讀advocacydecision-makingprocedures感謝閱讀havebeenadoptedattheexecutive謝謝閱讀levelsinmanyorganizations,including謝謝閱讀the executive branch of the感謝閱讀government.Onewouldthinkthatby精品文檔放心下載1986,13yearsafterthepublicationof精品文檔放心下載apopularbook,thatitsprescriptions感謝閱讀might be well ingrained in our感謝閱讀management and decision-making感謝閱讀styles. Unfortunately, it has not謝謝閱讀happened.OnJanuary28,1986,thespace感謝閱讀shuttleChallengerwaslaunchedfrom感謝閱讀Kennedy Space Center. Thetemperaturethatmorningwasinthe感謝閱讀

mid-20's,wellbelowthepreviouslow精品文檔放心下載temperatures at which the shuttle精品文檔放心下載engines had been tested.Seventy-threesecondsafterlaunch,the謝謝閱讀Challengerexploded,killingallseven精品文檔放心下載astronautsaboard,andbecomingthe感謝閱讀worstdisasterinspaceflighthistory.謝謝閱讀Thecatastropheshockedthenation,感謝閱讀crippledtheAmericanspaceprogram,精品文檔放心下載andisdestinedtoberememberedas謝謝閱讀themosttragicnationaleventsincethe精品文檔放心下載assassinationofJohnF.Kennedyin感謝閱讀1963.The Presidential Commission謝謝閱讀thatinvestigatedtheaccidentpointed精品文檔放心下載toaflaweddecision-makingprocessas謝謝閱讀a primary contributory cause. The精品文檔放心下載decisionwasmadethenightbeforethe謝謝閱讀launchintheLevelIFlightReadiness謝謝閱讀Reviewmeeting.Duetotheworkofthe感謝閱讀Presidential Commission,information感謝閱讀concerningthatmeetingisavailablefor感謝閱讀_analysisasagroupdecisionpossibly感謝閱讀susceptibletogroupthink.謝謝閱讀Inthispaper,wereporttheresults謝謝閱讀of our analysis ofthe Level Flight感謝閱讀Readiness Review meeting as a精品文檔放心下載decision-makingsituationthatdisplays感謝閱讀evidenceofgroupthink.Wereviewthe精品文檔放心下載antecedentconditions,thegroupthink精品文檔放心下載symptoms, and the possible謝謝閱讀decision-makingdefects,assuggested精品文檔放心下載byJanis(1983).Inaddition,wetakethe謝謝閱讀nextandmoreimportantstepofgoing謝謝閱讀beyondthedevelopmentofanother精品文檔放心下載

1986年1月28日，挑戰(zhàn)者號航天飛機(jī)從肯尼迪航天中心發(fā)射升空。溫度那天早上是在中間20年代，遠(yuǎn)低于前低的溫度在該班車引擎已經(jīng)過測試。發(fā)射后七三秒鐘，挑戰(zhàn)者爆炸，七名宇航員全部遇難船上，并成為最大的災(zāi)難的空間飛行的歷史。災(zāi)難震驚全國，削弱了美國的太空計(jì)劃，并注定要被記住作為自約翰· F·肯尼迪1963年遇刺最悲慘的全國性活動。exampleofgroupthinkto其中許多已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)在大眾媒體，在對行政決策的書籍，并在管理的教科書。多宣傳決策程序，已經(jīng)通過在許多組總統(tǒng)委員會認(rèn)為調(diào)查事故指著一織，包括政府的行政部門的行政級別。個有缺陷的決策過程中作為主要促成有人會認(rèn)為，到1986年，一本暢銷書，因素。推出的I級飛行準(zhǔn)備審查會議前其處方可能還有根深蒂固在我們的管的決定是在晚上。由于總統(tǒng)委員會的理和決策風(fēng)格公布13年后。不幸的工作，是有關(guān)該會議的信息可用于分是，它并沒有發(fā)生。析群體決策可能容易受到群體思維。_在本文中，我們報(bào)告我們的水平飛行準(zhǔn)備評審會議，會顯示群體思維的證據(jù)的決策情況的分析結(jié)果。我們回顧了先前的條件下，群體思維癥狀，可能的決策缺陷，所建議的賈尼斯（1983）。此外，我們采取的超越群體思維的另一個例子的發(fā)展做出的重新調(diào)查小組決策過程的建議下一個更重要的步驟。recommendationsforrenewedinquiry謝謝閱讀intogroupdecision-makingprocesses.謝謝閱讀THEORYANDEVIDENCEThegroupthinkhypothesishas感謝閱讀beenpresentedindetailinnumerous精品文檔放心下載publicationsotherthanJanis'books精品文檔放心下載(Flowers, 1977; Courtright, 1978;謝謝閱讀Leana,1985; Moorhead, 1982;謝謝閱讀Moorhead&Montanari,1986)andwill精品文檔放心下載

not be repeated here. The major精品文檔放心下載categoriesw01beusedasaframework感謝閱讀fororganizingtheevidencefromthe精品文檔放心下載meeting.Withineachcategorythekey感謝閱讀elementswillbepresentedalongwith感謝閱讀meetingdetailsthatpertaintoeach.感謝閱讀The meeting(s) took placethroughoutthedayandeveningfrom感謝閱讀12:36 pm (EST), January 27, 1986感謝閱讀followingthedecisiontonotlaunch謝謝閱讀theChallengerduetohighcrosswinds精品文檔放心下載at the launch site. Discussions感謝閱讀continued through about 12:00精品文檔放心下載midnight (EST) via teleconferencing感謝閱讀andTelefaxsystemsconnectingthe精品文檔放心下載Kennedy Space Center in Florida,精品文檔放心下載MortonThiokol(MTI)inUtah,Johnson謝謝閱讀SpaceCenterinHouston,andthe謝謝閱讀MarshallSpaceFlightCenter.TheLevel精品文檔放心下載IFlightReadinessReviewisthehighest謝謝閱讀level of reviewprior to launch. It謝謝閱讀comprises the highest level of感謝閱讀_managementatthethreespacecenters精品文檔放心下載andatMTI,theprivatesupplierofthe謝謝閱讀solidrocketboosterengines.精品文檔放心下載Tobrieflystatethesituation,the精品文檔放心下載MTIengineersrecommendednotto感謝閱讀launchiftemperaturesoftheO-ring感謝閱讀sealsontherocketwerebelow53感謝閱讀

穆爾黑德，1982;穆爾黑德和蒙塔納，1986）等眾多的出版物，也不會在這里重復(fù)。大類W01被用作從會議主辦證據(jù)的框架。在每個類別中的關(guān)鍵要素將隨著會議的細(xì)節(jié)，涉及到每個人都可以提出。degrees Fahrenheit,which was the感謝閱讀lowesttemperatureofanyprevious感謝閱讀flight.LaurenceB.Mulloy,managerof精品文檔放心下載theSolidRocketBoosterProjectat謝謝閱讀MarshallSpaceFlightCenter,states:精品文檔放心下載...Thebottomlineofthat,though,initiallywasthatThiokolengineering,BobLund,whoistheVicePresidentandDirectorofEngineering,whoisheretoday,recommendedthat51-L[theChallenger]notbelaunchediftheO-ringtemperaturespredictedatlaunchtimewouldbelowerthan精品文檔放心下載anyprevious理論與證實(shí)該群體思維假說已經(jīng)提出了詳細(xì)的比 Janis 的書（花， 1977;Courtright，1978;Leana，1985;精品文檔放心下載

從下午12:36（美國東部時間），以下為不啟動挑戰(zhàn)者由于高側(cè)風(fēng)在發(fā)射場的決定的會議上（次）發(fā)生在白天和晚上，1986年1月27日。討論通過連接肯尼迪航天中心在佛羅里達(dá)州，莫頓聚硫橡膠（MTI）在猶他，約翰遜航天中心在休斯敦和馬歇爾太空飛行中心電話會議和電傳系統(tǒng)繼續(xù)通過大約午夜12:00（美國東部時間）。I級飛行考前復(fù)習(xí)是在發(fā)射前審查的最高水平。它包括三個空間中心和在MTI，固體火箭的私人供應(yīng)商管理的最高級別增壓發(fā)動機(jī)。_theensuingdiscussionsthedecisionto謝謝閱讀launchwasmade.簡要地說明情況，MTI工程師建議不要啟動，如果氣溫在火箭的O型圈密封件均低于53華氏度，這是以往任何飛行的最低溫度。勞倫斯B.馬洛伊，固體火箭助推器項(xiàng)目于馬歇爾太空飛行中心的經(jīng)理，說：

AntecedentConditionsThe three primary antecedent感謝閱讀conditions for the development of謝謝閱讀groupthink are: a highly cohesive謝謝閱讀group,leaderpreferenceforacertain感謝閱讀decision,andinsulationofthegroup謝謝閱讀fromqualifiedoutsideopinions.These感謝閱讀conditionsexistedinthissituation.精品文檔放心下載。。，那底線，雖然，最初是聚硫橡膠工程，鮑勃·隆德，誰是副總裁兼工程總監(jiān)，今天誰在這里，建議51-L[挑戰(zhàn)者]無法啟動，如果O型圈溫度在啟動時預(yù)測會比以往任何發(fā)射低，那是53度。。。launch,andthatwas53degrees...(Reportof感謝閱讀thePresidentialCommissionontheSpace感謝閱讀ShuttleAccident,1986,p.91-92).感謝閱讀Thisrecommendationwasmade感謝閱讀at8:45pm,.January27,1986(Reportof謝謝閱讀thePresidentialCommissiononthe感謝閱讀SpaceShuttleAccident,1986).Through感謝閱讀

CohesiveGroup.Thepeoplewho感謝閱讀made the decision to launch had精品文檔放心下載workedtogetherformanyyears.They感謝閱讀werefamiliarwitheachotherandhad精品文檔放心下載grownthroughtheranksofthespace謝謝閱讀program.Ahighdegreeofespritde精品文檔放心下載corpsexistedbetweenthemembers.精品文檔放心下載LeaderPreference.Twotoplevel精品文檔放心下載managers actively promoted their謝謝閱讀pro-launchopinionsinthe face of謝謝閱讀opposition. The commission report精品文檔放心下載statesthatseveralmanagersatspace感謝閱讀_centersandMTIpushedforlaunch,精品文檔放心下載regardlessofthelowtemperatures.謝謝閱讀Insulation from Experts. MTI謝謝閱讀engineers made theirrecommendationsrelativelyearlyinthe精品文檔放心下載evening.Thetopleveldecision-making精品文檔放心下載groupknewoftheirobjectionsbutdid精品文檔放心下載notmeetwiththemdirectlytoreview精品文檔放心下載their data and concerns. As Roger謝謝閱讀Boisjoly,aThiokolengineer,statesin謝謝閱讀his remarks to the Presidential感謝閱讀Commission:Iwasnotevenaskedtoparticipateingi'vinganyinputtothefrnaldecisioncharts(ReportofthePresidentialCommissionontheSpaceShuttleAccident,1986,p.91-92).精品文檔放心下載Thistestimonialindicatesthatthe謝謝閱讀top decision-making team was精品文檔放心下載insulated from the engineers who精品文檔放心下載possessedtheexpertiseregardingthe感謝閱讀functioningoftheequipment.精品文檔放心下載GroupthinkSymptoms(總統(tǒng)委員會對航天飛機(jī)事故，1986年，第91-92報(bào)告）。

這個建議是20時45分。1986年1月27日（總統(tǒng)委員會對航天飛機(jī)事故，1986報(bào)告）。通過隨后的討論中，推出決定做出。先行條件這三個主要的前提條件，群體思維的發(fā)展是：一個高度凝聚力的群體，領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者偏好某種決定，本集團(tuán)向合格的外部意見的絕緣。這些條件存在這種情況。凝聚力的群體。誰做的決定，推出的人已經(jīng)工作多年在一起。他們熟悉彼此，并通過太空計(jì)劃的行列中長大。的袍澤高度存在的成員之間。領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者優(yōu)先。兩個頂級經(jīng)理積極推動他們的親發(fā)射意見反對面前。該委員會報(bào)告指出，不同的基金經(jīng)理在感謝閱讀_空間中心和MTI被推為發(fā)射，不管低溫。

alongwithevidencefromtheReportof謝謝閱讀thePresidentialCommissiononthe精品文檔放心下載SpaceShuttleAccident(1986).精品文檔放心下載絕緣從專家。MTI公司的工程師在晚上比較早的提出自己的建議。頂層決策組知道他們的反對意見，但他們并沒有直接見面，檢討自己的數(shù)據(jù)和關(guān)注。正如羅杰Boisjoly，一個聚硫橡膠工程師，在他的言論指出，以總統(tǒng)委員會：我什至沒有要求參加gi'ving任何輸入到frnal決定圖表（總統(tǒng)委員會對航天飛機(jī)事故，1986年，第91-92報(bào)告）。這證明表明最高決策層團(tuán)隊(duì)從誰擁有有關(guān)設(shè)備的運(yùn)作的專業(yè)知識的工程師絕緣。

Invulnerability. Whengroupthinkoccurs,mostorallofthe謝謝閱讀members of the decision-making感謝閱讀grouphaveanillusionofinvulnerability精品文檔放心下載thatreassurestheminthefaceof感謝閱讀obviousdangers.Thisillusionleadsthe謝謝閱讀grouptobecomeoveroptimisticand感謝閱讀willingtotakeextraordinaryrisks.It謝謝閱讀mayalsocausethemtoignoreclear謝謝閱讀warningsofdanger.Thesojidrocketjointproblem謝謝閱讀that destroyed Challenger was精品文檔放心下載discussed often at flight readiness精品文檔放心下載review meetings prior to flight.謝謝閱讀However,CommissionmemberRichard精品文檔放心下載Feynman concjuded from the感謝閱讀群體思維癥狀Janisidentifiedeightsymptoms感謝閱讀ofgroupthink.Theyarepresentedhere感謝閱讀

testimony that a mentality of感謝閱讀overconfidence existed due to the精品文檔放心下載extraordinary record of success of謝謝閱讀_spaceflights.Everytimewesendone謝謝閱讀upitissuccessful.Involvedmembers感謝閱讀mayseemtothinkthatonthenextone感謝閱讀wecanlowerourstandardsortake精品文檔放心下載morerisksbecauseitalwaysworks謝謝閱讀(Time,1986).Theinvulnerabilityillusionmay感謝閱讀havebuiltupovertimeasaresultof感謝閱讀NASA'sownspectacularhistory.NASA謝謝閱讀hadnotlostanastronautsince1967謝謝閱讀whenaflashfireinthecapsuleof精品文檔放心下載

andotherformsofnegativefeedback.謝謝閱讀Ifthesesignalsweretakenseriously精品文檔放心下載whenpresented,thegroupmembers感謝閱讀wouldbeforcedtoreconsidertheir感謝閱讀assumptionseachtimetheyre-commit精品文檔放心下載themselvestotheirpastdecisions.感謝閱讀詹尼斯確定了八個癥狀的群體思維。他們在這里提出一起從總統(tǒng)委員會對航天飛機(jī)事故（1986）報(bào)告的證據(jù)。Apoll01killedthree.Sincethattime感謝閱讀NASAhadastringof55successful感謝閱讀missions.Theyhadputamanonthe謝謝閱讀moon,builtandlaunchedSkylaband感謝閱讀the shuttle, and retrieved defective精品文檔放心下載satellitesfromorbit.Inthemindsof謝謝閱讀mostAmericansandapparentlytheir謝謝閱讀own,theycoulddonowrong.精品文檔放心下載Rationalization. Victims of感謝閱讀groupthink collectively construct謝謝閱讀rationalizationsthatdiscountwarnings感謝閱讀

無懈可擊的錯覺。當(dāng)發(fā)生群體思維，大多數(shù)或所有決策小組的成員有刀槍不入的一個錯覺，以為可令他們在明顯的危險(xiǎn)面前。這種錯覺導(dǎo)致本集團(tuán)成為樂觀，并愿意承擔(dān)非常大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。它可能也會使他們忽視的危險(xiǎn)明顯的警告。sojid火箭關(guān)節(jié)的問題，摧毀挑戰(zhàn)者往往在討論之前，飛行飛行準(zhǔn)備檢討會議。然而，委員會成員理查德·費(fèi)感謝閱讀_曼從過度自信的心態(tài)存在由于太空飛構(gòu)造打折警告和其他形式的負(fù)反饋合行成功的非凡記錄的證詞理化。如果這些信號被認(rèn)真對待的時concjuded。我們送一上來它的每一候提出，小組成員將被迫每次他們重精品文檔放心下載次成功。參與成員似乎認(rèn)為就下單， 新致力于其過去的決定重新考慮他們精品文檔放心下載我們可以降低我們的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)或冒更大的 的假設(shè)。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，因?yàn)樗偸枪ぷ鳎〞r間，1986）。無懈可擊的錯覺可能已經(jīng)建立了隨著時間的推移，作為美國航空航天局自己的歷史壯觀的結(jié)果。美國航空航天局自1967年以來，當(dāng)在Apoll0的膠囊火光一閃殺害了三名沒有失去一名宇航員。自那時以來，美國航空航天局有55成功使命的字符串。他們把一個人送上月球，建造和發(fā)射太空實(shí)驗(yàn)室和航天飛機(jī)，并回收有缺陷的衛(wèi)星從軌道上。在大多數(shù)美國人顯然對自己的頭腦，他們可以做的沒有錯。精品文檔放心下載合理化。群體思維的受害者共同

In the Level I flight readiness謝謝閱讀meeting when the Challenger was精品文檔放心下載given final launch approval, MTI謝謝閱讀engineerspresentedevidencethatthe感謝閱讀jointwouldfail.Theirargumentwas感謝閱讀basedonthefactthatinthecoldest精品文檔放心下載previouslaunch(airtemperature30謝謝閱讀degrees) the joint in question感謝閱讀experiencedseriouserosionandthat感謝閱讀nodataexistedastohowthejoint感謝閱讀wouldperformatcoldertemperatures.精品文檔放心下載FJight center officiajs put forth感謝閱讀numerous technical rationalizations感謝閱讀faultingMTI'sanalysis.Oneofthese精品文檔放心下載rationalizationswasthattheengineer's精品文檔放心下載_datawereinconclusive.AsMr.Boisjoly感謝閱讀emphasized to theCommission:Discussions became精品文檔放心下載twisted (compared to previous感謝閱讀meetings)andnoonedetectedit.感謝閱讀Undernormalconditions,MTIwould謝謝閱讀havetoprovetheshuttleboosters感謝閱讀readiness for launch, instead they精品文檔放心下載found themselves being forced to謝謝閱讀provethattheboosterswereunsafe.感謝閱讀Boisjoly's testimony supports this感謝閱讀descriptionofthediscussion:精品文檔放心下載...Thiswasameetingwherethedeterminationwastolaunch,anditwasuptoustoprovebeyondashadowofadoubtthatitwasnotsafetodoso.Thisisintotalreversetowhatthepositionusuallyisinapreflightconversationoraflightreadinessreview.Itisusuallyexactlyoppositeofthai...(ReporiofthePresidential感謝閱讀CommissionontheSpaceShuttleAccident,1986,p.93).精品文檔放心下載Moraliry.Groupmembersoften感謝閱讀believe, without question, in the感謝閱讀inherent morality of their position.精品文檔放心下載Theytendtoignoretheethicalor感謝閱讀moralconsequencesoftheirdecision.精品文檔放心下載

IntheChallengercase,thispoint謝謝閱讀wasraisedbyaveryhighlevelMTI謝謝閱讀manager,AllanJ.McDonald,whotried謝謝閱讀tostopthelaunchandsaidthathe精品文檔放心下載wouldnotwanttohavetodefendthe謝謝閱讀decisiontolaunch.Hestatedtothe感謝閱讀Commission:...Imadethestatementthatifwe'rewrongandsomethinggoeswrongonthis謝謝閱讀flight,Iwouldn't在一級飛行準(zhǔn)備會議感謝閱讀時，挑戰(zhàn)者給予最終批準(zhǔn)上市，MTI公司的工程師提出的證據(jù)表明，聯(lián)合將會失敗。他們的論據(jù)是基于，在最寒冷的先前推出的（空氣溫度30度）有問題的聯(lián)合經(jīng)歷了嚴(yán)重的侵蝕和沒有數(shù)據(jù)存在，如何聯(lián)合將在較低溫度下進(jìn)行的事實(shí)。FJight中心officiajs謝謝閱讀提出了許多合理化的技術(shù)斷層MTI的分析。其中一個合理化的是，工程師的數(shù)據(jù)是不確定的。由于Boisjoly先生強(qiáng)調(diào)委員會：討論成為扭曲的（相比于以往的會議），沒有人發(fā)現(xiàn)它。在正常情況下，MTI必須證明航天飛_機(jī)的助推器準(zhǔn)備發(fā)射，相反，他們發(fā)現(xiàn)自己被強(qiáng)迫證明助推器不安全。Boisjoly的證詞支持的討論這樣的描述：謝謝閱讀。。。這是一個會議的地方是決心發(fā)動，這是由我們來證明超出了懷疑，這是不是安全的這樣做了一層陰影。這是總的反向到什么位置通常是在預(yù)檢談話或飛行準(zhǔn)備檢討。它通常是完全相反的泰國。 （總統(tǒng)的Repori委員會在航天飛機(jī)事故，1986年，頁。93）。道德。集團(tuán)成員往往認(rèn)為，毫無疑問，其立場的內(nèi)在道德。他們往往忽略了他們的決定的倫理和道德后果。

在挑戰(zhàn)者的情況下，這點(diǎn)是提出了很高的水平MTI經(jīng)理，艾倫J.麥當(dāng)勞，誰試圖阻止發(fā)射，并表示他不希望要捍衛(wèi)發(fā)射的決定。他說委員會：謝謝閱讀我認(rèn)為，如果我們錯了，不順心的事，這個航班，我不希望必須要站精品文檔放心下載wanttohavetobethepersontostandupinfrontofboardininquiryandsaythatIwentaheadandtoldthemtogoaheadandflythisthingoutsidewhatthemotorwasqualifiedto...(ReportofthePresideruialComrrusszonontheSpaceShuttleAccidem,1986,p.95).精品文檔放心下載Some members did not hear this精品文檔放心下載statementbecauseitoccurredduringa精品文檔放心下載break.Threetopofficialswhodidhear感謝閱讀itignoredit.Stereotyped Views ofOthers.Victimsofgroupthinkoften精品文檔放心下載have a stereotyped view of the精品文檔放心下載oppositionofanyonewithacompeting感謝閱讀opinion.Theyfeelthattheopposition感謝閱讀istoostupidortooweaktounderstand精品文檔放心下載_ordealeffectivelywiththeproblem.感謝閱讀Twoof the top three NASA精品文檔放心下載officials responsible for the launch謝謝閱讀displayedthisattitude.Theyfeltthat謝謝閱讀theycompletelyunderstoodthenature感謝閱讀of the joint problem and never感謝閱讀seriously considered the objections謝謝閱讀raisedbytheMTIengineers.Infact感謝閱讀they denigrated and badgered the精品文檔放心下載oppositionandtheirinformationand精品文檔放心下載opinions.PressureonDissent.Group謝謝閱讀membersoftenappjydirectpressureto感謝閱讀anyonewhoquestionsthevalidityof精品文檔放心下載theargumentssupportingadecision精品文檔放心下載orpositionfavoredbythemajority.精品文檔放心下載ThesesametwoofficialspressuredMTI感謝閱讀

ratherthantoprovetheopposite.As感謝閱讀mentionedearlier,this wasa total感謝閱讀reversalofnormalpreflightprocedures.謝謝閱讀It was this pressurethat top MTI謝謝閱讀managementwasrespondingtowhen精品文檔放心下載theyoverruledtheirengineeringstaff精品文檔放心下載and recommended launch. As the精品文檔放心下載Commissionreportstates:_Atapproximately11p.m.EasternStandardTime,theThiokoUNASAieleconferenceresumed,theThiokotmanagemerustatingthattheyhadreassessedtheproblem,謝謝閱讀thatthetemperature 起來的板前的調(diào)精品文檔放心下載查，說我繼續(xù)告訴他們先走的人的聲明和飛這個東西之外什么電機(jī)是合格的。（該P(yáng)resideruialComrrusszon精品文檔放心下載的航天飛機(jī)Accidem，1986年報(bào)，第95頁）。to change its position after MTI感謝閱讀originally recommended that the感謝閱讀launch not take place. These two謝謝閱讀officialspressuredMrflpersonnelto感謝閱讀provethatitwasnotsafetolaunch,謝謝閱讀

有些成員沒有聽到這個說法，因?yàn)樗菹r發(fā)生。誰是聽到了三個高層官員忽略了它。千篇一律他人的意見。群體思維的受害者往往有任何人有競爭的觀點(diǎn)的_對立的刻板看法。他們認(rèn)為，反對派是太傻還是太軟弱理解或有效地處理這個問題。謝謝閱讀兩個負(fù)責(zé)推出的前三名美國航空航天局官員顯示這種態(tài)度。他們認(rèn)為，他們完全了解的接頭問題的性質(zhì)和從來沒有認(rèn)真考慮過MTI工程師提出的反對意見。事實(shí)上，他們詆毀和糾纏反對派和他們的信息和意見。謝謝閱讀壓力異議。小組成員經(jīng)常直接壓力的人誰質(zhì)疑的支持，受到廣大青睞的決定或位置參數(shù)的有效性。這些相同的兩位官員施壓改變立場后，臺揚(yáng)原本建議推出不會發(fā)生。這兩位官員施壓人員證明它是不是安全啟動，而不是為了證明相反。如前面提到的，這是正常的預(yù)檢程序總的逆轉(zhuǎn)。正是這種壓力最重要的是管理是在回應(yīng)

時，他們否決了他們的工程技術(shù)人員，并建議推出。正如委員會報(bào)告指出：精品文檔放心下載大約在晚上11點(diǎn)東部標(biāo)準(zhǔn)時間時，干擾恢復(fù)，Thiokot指出，他們已重新評估的問題，即溫度的影響謝謝閱讀effectswereaconcem,butthatthedatawasadmittedlyinconclusive...(p.96).感謝閱讀ThisseemstoindicatethatNASA's謝謝閱讀pressure on these Thiokol officials謝謝閱讀forced them to change their謝謝閱讀recommendation from delay to謝謝閱讀executionofthelaunch.Self Censorship. Groupmemberstendtocensorthemselves精品文檔放心下載whentheyhaveopinionsorideasthat感謝閱讀deviate from the apparent group謝謝閱讀consensus.JaniSfeelsthatthisreflects感謝閱讀_eachmember'sinclinationtominimize謝謝閱讀tohimselforherselftheimportanceof謝謝閱讀hisorherowndoubtsandcounter-感謝閱讀arguments.Themostobviousevidenceof謝謝閱讀self-censorshipoccurredwhenavice感謝閱讀presidentofMTI,whohadpreviously感謝閱讀presentedinformationagainstlaunch,謝謝閱讀bowedtopressurefromNASAand感謝閱讀accepted their rationalizations for感謝閱讀launch.Hethenwrotetheseupand感謝閱讀presentedthemtoNASAasthe精品文檔放心下載reasons that MTI had changed its謝謝閱讀recommendationtolaunch.IuusionofUnanimiry.Group謝謝閱讀membersfallingvictimtogroupthink感謝閱讀share an illusion of unanimity精品文檔放心下載conceming judgments made by精品文檔放心下載members speakinginfavorofthe感謝閱讀majorityview.Thissymptomiscaused謝謝閱讀inpartbytheprecedingoneandis精品文檔放心下載aidedbythefalseassumptionthatany感謝閱讀

participantwhoremainssilentisin感謝閱讀agreementwiththemajorityopinion.感謝閱讀Thegroupleaderandothermembers精品文檔放心下載support each other by playing up謝謝閱讀pointsofconvergenceintheirthinking謝謝閱讀attheexpenseoffullyexploringpoints精品文檔放心下載of divergence that might reveal謝謝閱讀unsettlingproblems.NoparticipantfromNASAever謝謝閱讀openlyagreedwithoreventooksides謝謝閱讀withMTIinthediscussion.Thesilence感謝閱讀fromNASAwasprobablyamplifiedby謝謝閱讀the fact that the meeting was a謝謝閱讀tejeconferencelinkingtheparticipants精品文檔放心下載atthreedifferentlocations.Obviously,精品文檔放心下載bodylanguagewhichmighthavebeen感謝閱讀evidencedbydissenterswasnotvisible感謝閱讀c但該數(shù)據(jù)是公認(rèn)的定論。。。（第96頁）。這似乎表明，美國航空航天局對這些聚硫橡膠官員的壓力迫使他們自己的建議，改變從延遲到執(zhí)行的發(fā)射。_誤的假設(shè)是誰保持沉默，任何參與者自我檢查。集團(tuán)成員傾向于自我 在與多數(shù)意見同意資助。領(lǐng)導(dǎo)小組組謝謝閱讀審查時，他們有從組明顯偏離共識意 長和其他成員互相支持打了收斂點(diǎn)在謝謝閱讀見或想法。詹尼斯認(rèn)為，這反映了各 他們的思維在發(fā)散的可能揭示令人不精品文檔放心下載成員的政策傾斜，以減少他或她自己 安的問題的充分發(fā)掘點(diǎn)的費(fèi)用。謝謝閱讀的他或她自己的懷疑和重要性參數(shù)。發(fā)生的自我審查的最明顯的證據(jù)時，MTI副總裁，誰曾提出反對發(fā)射信息，垂首來自美國宇航局的壓力，并接受他們的合理化發(fā)射。然后，他寫這些了，并將其提交給美國航空航天局為這MTI改變了其建議，推出的原因。

從美國航空航天局沒有參加過公開贊同，甚至偏袒與MTI討論。來自美國宇航局的沉默可能是由以下事實(shí)，這次會議是一個tejeconference連接的參與者在三個不同的地點(diǎn)放大。顯然，肢體語言可能已被證明反對者是不可見的其他人誰可能也舉行了反對意見。謝謝閱讀tootherswhomightalsohaveheld感謝閱讀統(tǒng)一、一致的錯覺。集團(tuán)成員的

a dissenting opinion. Thus, silence精品文檔放心下載犧牲品群體思維份額成員贊成多數(shù)人

meantagreement.的意見的發(fā)言作出一致判斷的錯覺。

Mindguarding.

Certaingroup此癥狀是由前一個引起部分，是由錯

membersassumetheroleofguarding精品文檔放心下載_themindsofothersinthegroup.They謝謝閱讀attempt to shield the group from感謝閱讀adverseinformationthatmightdestroy精品文檔放心下載themajorityviewofthefactsregarding謝謝閱讀theappropriatenessofthedecision.謝謝閱讀ThetopmanagementatMarshall謝謝閱讀knewthattherocketcasingshadbeen感謝閱讀orderedredesignedtocorrectaflaw5精品文檔放心下載monthsprevioustothislaunch.This精品文檔放心下載informationandothertechnicaldetails感謝閱讀concerningthehistoryofthejoint感謝閱讀problemwaswithheldatthemeeting.感謝閱讀Decision-MakingDefectsThe result of the antecedent謝謝閱讀conditions and the symptoms of精品文檔放心下載groupthink is a defectivedecision-making process.JaniS精品文檔放心下載discussesseveraldefectsindecision精品文檔放心下載makingthatcanresult.Few Altematives. The group感謝閱讀considersonlyafewalternatives,often謝謝閱讀only two. No initial survey of all精品文檔放心下載

possiblealternativesoccurs.TheFlight謝謝閱讀Readiness Review team had a精品文檔放心下載launch/no-launch decision to make.謝謝閱讀Theseweretheonlytwoalternatives精品文檔放心下載considered.Otherpossiblealternatives精品文檔放心下載mighthavebeentodelaythelaunch感謝閱讀forfurthertesting,ortodelayuntilthe謝謝閱讀temperaturesreachedanappropriate感謝閱讀level.No Re-Examination ofaltematives. The group fails to精品文檔放心下載re-examinealternativesthatmayhave感謝閱讀beeninitiallydiscardedbasedonearly謝謝閱讀unfavorable information. TopNASA謝謝閱讀officials spent time and effort感謝閱讀defending and strengthening their謝謝閱讀position,ratherthanexaminingthe謝謝閱讀MTIposition.Rejecting Expert Opinions.感謝閱讀Membersmakelittleornoattemptto精品文檔放心下載seekoutsideexpertsopinions.NASA精品文檔放心下載didnotseekoutotherexpertswho謝謝閱讀_mighthavesomeexpertiseinthisarea. 些缺陷。感謝閱讀Theyassumedthattheyhadallthe謝謝閱讀information.

幾個Altematives。該小組認(rèn)為，因此，沉默意味著同意。 只有少數(shù)的替代品，往往只有兩個。精品文檔放心下載所有可能的備選方案沒有初始調(diào)查發(fā)生。飛行考前復(fù)習(xí)隊(duì)有一個啟動/無發(fā)自愿的思想警衛(wèi)。某些小組成員 射的決定。這些是僅有的兩個備選方謝謝閱讀承擔(dān)守著別人心目中的組中的角色。 案考慮。其他可能的替代方案可能是精品文檔放心下載他們試圖從可能破壞有關(guān)的決定恰當(dāng) 推遲發(fā)射進(jìn)行進(jìn)一步的測試，或延遲，精品文檔放心下載的事實(shí)，大多數(shù)人的意見不良信息屏 直到氣溫達(dá)到適當(dāng)?shù)乃?。謝謝閱讀蔽的組。高層管理人員在馬歇爾知道，火 沒有復(fù)審。本集團(tuán)未能重新審視感謝閱讀箭外殼已下令重新設(shè)計(jì)，以糾正缺陷5 替代品，可能已初步放棄基于早期的謝謝閱讀個月在此之前推出。關(guān)于聯(lián)合的問題 不利信息。美國宇航局官員花了時間謝謝閱讀歷史上的這一信息和其他技術(shù)細(xì)節(jié)被 和精力捍衛(wèi)和鞏固自己的地位，而不感謝閱讀隱瞞了會議。 是檢查MTI位置。決策缺陷這項(xiàng)決策的前提條件和群體思維 拒絕專家意見。大家做很少或沒有嘗謝謝閱讀的癥狀的結(jié)果是有缺陷的決策 試尋求外部專家的意見。美國航空航感謝閱讀process.JaniS論述的決策，可導(dǎo)致一 天局并沒有找出誰可能有一些專業(yè)知謝謝閱讀_識在這一領(lǐng)域的其他專家。他們假設(shè)，他們把所有的信息。

CommissionReportofanydiscussion精品文檔放心下載ofthepossibleconsequencesofan感謝閱讀incorrectdecision.Rejecting Negative Information.精品文檔放心下載Memberstendtofocusonsupportive精品文檔放心下載informationandignoreanydataor謝謝閱讀informationthatmightcastanegative感謝閱讀lightontheirpreferredalternative.MTI謝謝閱讀representatives repeatedly tried to感謝閱讀pointouterrorsintherationalethe感謝閱讀NASAofficialswereusingtojustifythe精品文檔放心下載launch.Evenafterthedecisionwas感謝閱讀made,theargumentcontinueduntila精品文檔放心下載NASA official told the MTI精品文檔放心下載representativethatitwasnolongerhis精品文檔放心下載concern.No Contingency Plans.Membersspendlittletimediscussing謝謝閱讀the possible consequences of the精品文檔放心下載decisionand,therefore,failtodevelop精品文檔放心下載contingency plans. There is no謝謝閱讀documentedevidenceintheRogers感謝閱讀

SummaryoftheEvidenceThemajorcategoriesandkey謝謝閱讀elementsofthegroupthinkhypothesis感謝閱讀havebeenpresented(albeitsomewhat感謝閱讀briefly)alongwithevidencefromthe精品文檔放心下載discussionspriortothelaunchingof謝謝閱讀the Challenger,as reported in the謝謝閱讀President'sCommissiontoinvestigate精品文檔放心下載the accident. The antecedent精品文檔放心下載conditions were present in the感謝閱讀decision-makinggroup,eventhough感謝閱讀the group was in several physical精品文檔放心下載locations.Theleadershadapreferred精品文檔放心下載solution and engaged in behaviors謝謝閱讀designedtopromoteitratherthan精品文檔放心下載criticallyappraisealternatives.These謝謝閱讀behaviorswereevidenceofmostofthe感謝閱讀symptoms leading to a defective精品文檔放心下載decision-makingprocess._DISCUSSIONThissituationprovidesanother感謝閱讀exampleofdecisionmakinginwhich謝謝閱讀thegroupfejIvictimtothegroupthink謝謝閱讀syndrome,ashavesomanyprevious感謝閱讀groups. It illustrates the situation謝謝閱讀characteristics,thesymptomsofgroup感謝閱讀think,anddecision-makingdefectsas謝謝閱讀described by JaniS. Thissituation,however, 拒絕消極的信息。精品文檔放心下載大家往往把重點(diǎn)放在支持性信息，并忽略可能蒙上了消極的光在他們的首選替代任何數(shù)據(jù)或信息。MTI公司的代表多次試圖在理論基礎(chǔ)美國宇航局官員使用證明發(fā)射指出錯誤。在作出決定后，甚至，爭論一直持續(xù)到美國

沒有應(yīng)急預(yù)案。大家花一點(diǎn)時間討論決定可能產(chǎn)生的后果，因此，未能制定應(yīng)急計(jì)劃。有在的一個可能后果的討論羅杰斯委員會的報(bào)告沒有任何書面證據(jù)不正確的決定。證據(jù)總結(jié)主要類別和群體思維假說的主要內(nèi)容已經(jīng)呈現(xiàn)（盡管有些是暫時的）以及來自挑戰(zhàn)者的開展之前討論的證據(jù)，如報(bào)告在總統(tǒng)委員會調(diào)查事故。前因條件是存在于決策組，即使該集團(tuán)在多個物理位置。領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人有一個首選的解決方案，并參與旨在促進(jìn)它，宇航局的官員告訴MTI代表，它已不 而不是批判性評價(jià)替代品的行為。這精品文檔放心下載再是他的關(guān)注。 些行為都是最領(lǐng)先的，以有缺陷的決策過程中的癥狀證據(jù)。_windowforanotherlaunchwasfast感謝閱讀closing.Theleadersofthedecision精品文檔放心下載討論這種情況提供了決策中的組中受害者的群體思維癥狀，因?yàn)橛羞@么多以前的組的另一個例子。它說明所描述的詹尼斯的情況特點(diǎn)，集體性思維的癥狀，和決策的缺陷。這種情況下，然而，還示出的是對群體思維需要被包括在群體思維模型的訂正制劑的發(fā)alsoillustratesseveralotheraspectsof精品文檔放心下載situations that are critical to the謝謝閱讀developmentofgroupthinkthatneed謝謝閱讀tobeincludedinarevisedformulation謝謝閱讀ofthegroupthinkmodel.First,the精品文檔放心下載elementoftimeininfluencingthe感謝閱讀developmentofgroupthinkhasnot感謝閱讀receivedadequateattention.Inthe感謝閱讀decisiontolaunchthespaceshuttle謝謝閱讀Challenger,timewasacrucialpartof感謝閱讀

teamwereconcernedaboutpublicand精品文檔放心下載congressionalperceptionsoftheentire謝謝閱讀space shuttle program and its精品文檔放心下載continuedfundingandmayhavefelt謝謝閱讀thatfurtherdelaysofthelaunchcould感謝閱讀seriouslyimpactfuturefunding.With謝謝閱讀thespacewindowfastclosing,the精品文檔放心下載decisionteamwasfacedwithalaunch謝謝閱讀noworseriouslydamagetheprogram精品文檔放心下載decision. One top level manager's感謝閱讀response to Thiokol's initial感謝閱讀recommendation to postpone the感謝閱讀launchindicatesthepresenceoftime精品文檔放心下載pressure.WiththisLCC(LaunchCommitCriteria),i.e.,donotlaunchwithatemperaturegreater[siqthan53degrees,wemaynotbeabletolaunchuntilnextApril.Weneedtoconsiderthiscarefullybeforewejumptoanyconclusions...(ReportofthePresidentialCommissionontheSpaceShuttleAccident,1986,p.96).精品文檔放心下載the decision-making process. The Timepressurecouldhaveplayedaand感謝閱讀launchhadbeendejayedonce,andthe toself-censortheircomments.that感謝閱讀_needstobehighlightedinaroleinthe謝謝閱讀group choosing to agree and to感謝閱讀self-censortheircomments.Therefore,感謝閱讀time is a critical variable revised感謝閱讀groupthinkframework. We propose精品文檔放心下載thattimeisanimportantmoderator謝謝閱讀betweengroupc