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MacroeconomicDevelopments
inSerbia
November2023
SustainedMacroeconomicStability
.Despitethemultidimensionalcrisisthatlastsmorethan3years,Serbiahasmanagedtopreservethestabilityofitseconomyandtheconsumersandinvestorsconfidence,asevidencedbycumulativerealGDPgrowthintheperiod2020-2022ofaround9.5%,recordinflowsofFDI,continuedgrowthofemploymentandwagesintheprivatesector,aswellasarecordlevelofFXreserves.
.InflationhaspeakedinQ12023,sinceAprilithasbeenonadecliningpath,andinOctoberreturnedtoasingle-digitlevel(8.5%y/y).Inflationwillcontinuefallingthroughtheprojectionhorizon,whilethereturntothetargettolerancebandisexpectedinmiddle2024.
.OurnewGDPgrowthprojectionin2023is2.5%.ProjectedGDPgrowthfor2024rangesfrom3%to4%,andinthemediumtermweexpectareturntopre-crisisgrowthratesof4%.
.RealGDPgrowthinQ32023stoodat3.5%y/y(0.8%s.a.),whileinQ4weexpectaccelerationofGDPgrowthtoaround3.8%y/y.
.TheNovemberCADprojectionfor2023hasremainedatalevellikethatoftheAugustprojection,amountingtoEUR1.7billion(2.5%ofGDP),whiletheCADprojectionfor2024hasbeenrevisedupwardfromEUR2.5bn(3.3%ofGDP)toEUR2.9bn(3.8%ofGDP),duetoexpectedaccelerationofinvestmentcycle.
.Owingtoproductandgeographicdiversificationandexport-orientedinvestments,goodsandservicesexportsin2022increasedbymorethan30%,whilethey/ygrowthinninemonths2023stoodat10%.
.AccordingtoLFS,theunemploymentratein2022stoodatthelowestlevel9.5%andinQ22023was9.6%,whichis0.5pplowerthaninQ1.Formalemploymentcontinuedtogrowinninemonths2023by2.6%y/y.
.FiscaldevelopmentsinQ1-Q3werealsobetterthanexpected,witharealizedsurplusoftheconsolidatedbudgetofRSD16bn(0.3%ofGDP).InSeptember2023centralgovernmentpublicdebtstoodatthelevelof51.3%ofGDP.
.InNovember,thekeypolicyratewaskeptunchangedat6.5%supportedbythecontinuedeasingofglobalinflationarypressuresandtheestablisheddownwardpathofdomesticinflationanditsexpectedreturnwithinthetargettolerancebandoverthemonetarypolicyhorizon.TheBoardalsotookintoaccountthefactthatmonetaryconditionsweretightenedinthepreviousperiodthroughthemaininstrument–theinterestrate,andinSeptemberalsobyincreasingthereserverequirementratio,withthefulleffectsofthesemeasuresyettobeplayedout.
2
.Bankingsectorstabilityhasbeenpreserved-theshareofNPLsinSeptemberwasat3.17%.
3
?Intheperiodofsevenyearspriortotheoutbreakofthecurrentcrisis,inflationaveragedaround2%.
?Averageannualinflationin2022was11.9%andwasledbysupply-sidefactors:theglobalenergycrisis,lingeringconsequencesofthepandemic,andthedroughtthathitourregion.
?InOctober2023inflationsloweddownandstoodat8.5%y/ywhichislargelyattributabletothesoftergrowthinfoodpricesand,toalesserextent,coreinflation.
InflationinOctoberbacktoaSingle-DigitLevel(8.5%y/y)
InaccordancewithNBSexpectations,theinflationfollowedadecliningpathsinceQ2...
…withlowerlevelofcoreinflationcomparedtotheheadline
Chart1CPIdevelopments
(y/yrates,%)andcontributions(pp)18
16
14
12
10
Chart2Contributionstoy/ycoreinflation
(pp)
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
Остало
Енерги?а
Базнаинфлаци?а*
Храна
ИПЦинфлаци?а
Дозво?еноодступа?еИнфлационици?
Fixedtelephone,internet,cabletvOther
RestaurantsandHotels
Homeappliances
PharmaceuticalgoodsandMedicines
ClothesandFootwear
7.3
RentsandhousingcostsTravelpackages
8,5
AutomobilesandtransportCoreInflation
8
4
3
2
6
4
1
2
0
0
-1
1471014710147101471014710147101471014710147101471014710147101471014710
-2
20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023
1471014710147101471014710147101471014710147101471014710147101471014710
2010.2011.2012.2013.2014.2015.2016.2017.2018.2019.2020.2021.2022.2023.
?Intheperiodbeforetheoutbreakofthecurrentcrisis,coreinflationalsoaveragedaround2%.
?InOctober,coreinflationsloweddownto7.3%y/y,whichwascontributedbytheweakeningofcostpressuresandeffectsofthetighteningofmonetarypolicy.
?Theretreatinginflationreflectedonafurtherfallinone-yearaheadinflationexpectationsofthefinancialsector(IpsosOctobersurvey5.9%,BloombergNovembersurvey5.0%),aswellasontwo-andthree-yearaheadexpectationswhicharewithintheNBS’stargettolerance
band.
4
InflationWillFollowDownwardPathintheComingPeriodasWell
…weexpectittodroptoaround8%y/yattheendofthisyear…
Chart3Inflationprojection(November2023IR)
(y/yrates,in%)
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
912369123691236912369
2022202320242025
?Inflationslowdownistheresultoftheeffectsofpastmonetarytightening,theslowerpaceofimportedinflation,thedecreaseininflationexpectations,aswellastheeasingofcost-pushpressures.
?Cost-pushpressuresareweakeningduetothefallinpricesofprimaryagriculturalcommoditiesandcertainindustrialrawmaterials,aswellasbetterfunctioningofglobalsupplychains.
?Disinflationaryeffectalsocomesfromsubduedaggregatedemandduetoslackenedglobalgrowth.
…andreturnwithinboundsofthetargettolerancebandinmid-2024.
Chart4Inflationprojection(November2023IR)
(averagey/yratesin%perquarterandcontributionsinpp)
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Oilderivatives
Non-foodFood
pricespricesQ1*
Q3
Q1
Q3
Q3
Q1*
Q3
Regulated
Consumer
Q1Q3
2021202220232024*2025*
*NBSForecast
?Thekeyriskstotheprojectionaremostlyrelatedtoexternalenvironmentandrefertogeopoliticalconditionsandtheoutlookforglobaleconomicgrowth,andtheirimpactonglobalenergyandcommodityprices.
?Asforthefactorsfromthedomesticenvironment,theprojectionrisksaremainlyassociatedwiththepaceoftherecoveryofdomesticdemandandtheoutcomeofnextyear’sagriculturalseason.
?Overall,therisksoftheinflationprojectionareassessedassymmetric.
AccelerationofGDPGrowthinH22023
Growthinthe2023ledbynetexportsandfixedinvestments
Chart5GDPdevelopments
(y/ygrowthratesin%andcontributionsinpp)
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
NXGCCGDP
7.7
4.54.3
4.0
3.3
2.52.5
1.8
-0.9
-1.6
3.5
2.1
2014201520162017201820192020202120222023*2024*2025*
*NBSforecast
.ThankstothepreservedmacroeconomicandfinancialstabilityandthetimelyandcomprehensivepackageofeconomicmeasuresadoptedbytheNationalBankofSerbiaandtheRSGovernment,SerbiarecordedacumulativegrowthofrealGDPof9.5%inthreeyearsofcrisis(2020-2022).
.AccordingtotheSORSflashestimate,GDPrecordedrealgrowthof3.5%y/yinQ32023(0.8%s.a.),drivenbynetexports,fixedinvestmentsandgovernmentconsumption,accordingtoourestimate.
.InQ4,weexpectGDPgrowthtoacceleratetoaround3.8%y/y,whichwillbedrivenbythegrowthofservicesectors,agricultureandconstruction,whileslightlysmallergrowthshouldberecordedinindustry.
InthecomingyearsSerbiawillmaintainastrong,sustainableandbroad-basedgrowth
Chart6GDPgrowthprojection(fromNovemberIR)
10
(y/ygrowthratesin%)
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3
2022202320242025
.OurnewGDPgrowthprojectionfor2023is2.5%andishigherthantheprojectionfromtheAugustIRwhenweprojectedgrowthclosertothelowerendofthe2%to3%range.
.Fromtheproductionside,accordingtoourestimates,growthwillprimarilybedrivenbythegrowthofservicesectors,agricultureandconstruction,whileweexpectaslightlylowercontributiontogrowthfromtheindustry.
.Wehavekeptthegrowthprojectionfor2024intherangeof3.0%to4.0%,andinthemediumtermweexpectareturntothepre-pandemicgrowthtrajectoryof4%peryear.
5
InvestmentsRemainataHighLevel
Precededbyachievedmacroeconomicstability,investmentcyclebeganin2015…
Chart7FixedinvestmentshareinGDP
(nominalterms,in%ofGDP)
25
20
15
10
5
0
22523.324.223.223.523.724.0
20.0
.21.4
177
17.017.1
15.9
.
202120222023*2024*2025*2026*
2014201520162017201820192020
privateinvestment
*NBSestimate
Governmentinvestment
Grossfixedinvestment
.In2015-2019,fixedinvestmentscumulativerealgrowthwasabout64%.TheshareoffixedinvestmentinGDPincreasedto22.5%in2019.Despitepandemic,fixedinvestmentscumulativlyincreasedinrealtermsduring2020and2021foraround14%.
.Accordingtoourestimate,theshareoffixedinvestmentsinnominalGDPin2022hasreachedthelevelofaround24%.
Governmentinvestmentsreachedlevelofover7%ofGDPin2021andshouldremainaroundthatlevelinthemediumterm.
.Startingfromtheanalysisoftheplannedcapitalprojectsintheinfrastructureinthenexttenyears,weexpectshareofinvestmentinGDPtostayhigh.
…supportedbydiversifiedfinancingsources
Chart8Keysourcesofinvestmentfinancing
(inEURmln)
14.00012.00010.0008.0006.0004.0002.000 0-2.000-4.000
201420152016201720182019202020212022
Domesticcompaniesprofitability(estimate)FDI
GovernmentCAPEXDomesticinvestmentloans(growth)
.Inearlieryears,investmentshavelargelyreliedonFDI.
.Owingtomaintainedmacroeconomicandfinancialstability,relativestabilityofexchangerate,aswellasfiscalconsolidation,inrecentyearsthreemorestrongpillarsforfinancinginvestmentshavebeenestablished:multipliedprofitabilityoftheeconomy,investmentloansanddoubledgovernmentinvestments.
.Ontopofthat,FDIinflowreachedrecordlevelsofaround7%ofGDPin2021-2022.
6
7
Totalinflow:
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.12.1
1.5
MacroeconomicandFinancialStabilitySupportedHighFDIInflow
Macroeconomicandfinancial
combinedwithstructuralreformshasafavourableclimateforFDIs…
stabilitycreated
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
-1.00
Chart9FDIcompositionbysector
(EURbn)
4.4
3.8
3.5
3.0
Totalinflow:
2.1
1.5
0.9
0.6
2.5
2.0
2.0
3.9
2.2
0.9
0.8
2.4
2.1
1.6
201420152016201720182019202020212022
OtherConstruction&realestate
FinanceTrade
ManufacturingTradablesector*
*industry,agriculture,transport&storage,accomodationandfoodsvc.
?OutofaninflowofEUR18.6bninpastfiveyears(2018-2022),overEUR10.0bnhasbeendirectedintotradablesectors,mostnotablymanufacturing(almostEUR6.0bn).
?ManufacturingsectorswiththehighestFDIinflows(metals,autos,food,rubberandplastic)recordedahighgrowthinemployment,outputandexports.
?SerbiahasattractedmorethanhalfoftotalFDItotheWesternBalkansregioninthe2018-2022.
…whicharediversifiedbysectorandoriginandcontributingtotheemploymentgrowthandcountry’sexportpotential
Chart10FDIcompositionbygeographicorigin
5.004.504.003.503.002.502.001.501.000.50
0.00
4.4
(EURbn)
3.8
3.9
201420152016201720182019202020212022
EAEU27ex-EAEuropeex-EU27China/HK
MiddleEastUSARestofworld
?In2022,FDIinflowamountedtoEUR4.4bn(netinflowEUR4.3bn).
?Inninemonthsof2023,FDIinflowamountedtoEUR3.2bn(netinflowEUR3.0bn),whichstillrepresentsahigheramountcomparedtothesameperiodlastyear.
?FDIinflowsarediversifiedbyregionoforiginaswell,withagreatershareofcountriesfromtheAsiaPacific,alongsideSerbia’smajortradingpartner-theEuropeanUnion.
0
-5
-10
0%
-5%
InQ1-Q32023,theReductionoftheCADWasGreaterThanExpected
CADprojectionfor2023unchangedat2.5%ofGDPduetostrongexportgrowthandlowerenergyimport
Chart11Currentaccountbalancebycomponent
(EURbn)
15
10
5
-3.5%-2.9%-5.2%-4.8%-6.9%-4.1%-4.2%-6.9%-2.5%-3.8%-4.1%-4.2%
-15
201520162017201820192020202120222023*2024*2025*2026*
GoodsSecondaryincomePrimaryincomeServicesCAD
?In2015-2022Serbia’scurrentaccountdeficithasbeenfullyfinancedbyFDI,whichismostlyexpectedinthefollowingyearsaswell(projectednetFDIinflowofaround5%ofGDP).
?In2022thecurrentdeficitofEUR4.2bn(6.9%ofGDP)wasrecorded.
?Inninemonthsof2023,deficitamountedtoEUR792mln(1.6%ofGDP),whichisareductionofEUR2.5bnony/ylevel,asaresultoflowerpricesofenergy,aswellasthegrowthofexportsofservices,manufacturingandelectricity.
?CADprojectionfor2024hasbeenrevisedupwardsto3.8%GDP,primarilydrivenbyanewinvestmentcycleandtherecoveryofequipmentandintermediatesimport.
Speed-upofinvestmentcyclewillbefollowedbystabilizationinshareofgrossnationalsavings
Chart12Savingsandinvestmentbalance
(%ofGDP)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
-2.9%-5.2%-4.8%-4.1%-4.2%-2.5%-3.8%-4.1%-4.2%
-6.9%
-6.9%
-10%
2016201720182019202020212022*2023*2024*2025*2026*
GrossnationalsavingsGrossdomesticinvestmentSavings-investmentbalance
?TheS-Igapnarrowedin2023asaresultofincreaseofgrossnationalsavingsandslowergrowthinprivateinvestments.
?Overtheintermediateperiod,expectedstabilizationofthegrossnationalsavingssharewillbeaccompaniedbyagradualspeed-upofinvestmentsintransport,energyandcommunalinfrastructure,aswellasinprojectsrelatedtotheinternationalworldexhibitionEXPO2027.
8
RevealedExportsResilienceDuringtheCrisis;LowerImportsLedbyaBetterSituationintheEnergyMarket
Newinvestmentsandcontinuedexpansionoftheexportcapacitieswillensurehighgrowthofexportsinthemediumterm
Chart13Exportsofgoodsandservices
(EURbn)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2014201520162017201820192020202120222023*2024*2025*2026*
OtherManufacturingAgricultureSevicesexports
*NBSForecast
?In2022,therewasanintensivegrowthofgoodsexportsof28.0%,drivenbythestronggrowthofexportsofthemanufacturingandminingsectors.
?Theservicesexportsgrowthin2022amountedto42.1%andwasdrivenbyexportsoftourismandICTservices.AtotalofmorethanEUR11bnwasrecordedintheexportofservices.
?DuringtheperiodQ1-Q32023,anincreaseingoodsexportsby5.8%y/ywasrecorded,drivenbyhighermanufacturingandelectricityexports,whiletheexportsofservicesgrowthof20.7%y/ywasdrivenbyICT,transportationandbusinessservices.
Theprojectionreflectsthatthenewinvestmentcyclewillreflectontheincreasedimportsofequipmentandintermediategood
Chart14Importsofgoodsandservices
(EURbn)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2014201520162017201820192020202120222023*2024*2025*2026*CapitalgoodsInterm.GoodsConsumergoodsUnallocatedgoodsServicesimports
*NBSForecastt
?Goodsimportsincreasedby34.1%in2022,drivenbyintermediateproducts(around60%oftotalimports),ofwhichathirdaccountsforhigherenergyimports.
?Importsofservicesincreasedby37.0%y/yin2022,drivenbytransportandtourismservices.
?Importsofgoodsdecreasedby6.0%y/yduringtheninemonthsof2023,withthelargestcontributiontothedecreasecomingfromreducedintermediatesimports,whichincludesenergy,whiletheimportsofservicesincreasedby15.2%y/yforthesameperiod.
9
10
GeographicDiversificationHelpedForeignTradeResilienceDuringPandemicandUkraineCrisis
Asignificanty/yincreaseinexportsto
Germany,wasrecordedinH12023…
…whichwasfollowedbythegrowthofimportsfromGermany
Chart15GoodsexportsbycountryinH12023/H12022
(EURmnand%oftotal)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
14.8%oftotalexportsinH12023
H12022
66.1%
16.0%
4.3%
H12023
65.5%
15.0%
5.4%
5.5%
3.7%3.5%3.4%3.3%
EU:CEFTA:
CIS:
4.2%4.2%3.8%
6.4%
6.7%
5.2%
DEUBIHITAHUNROURUSMNECROCZECHNBGRMKD
Chart16GoodsimportsbycountryinH12023/H12022
(EURmnand%oftotal)
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
12.8%oftotalimportsinH12023
11.8%
EU:
CEFTA:
CIS:
3.2%3.1%
H12022
55.9%
5.1%
8.1%
H12023
57.6%
4.6%
7.1%
7.1%
5.8%
4.7%
4.3%
2.9%2.8%2.7%2.6%
DEUCHNITARUSTURHUNPLROMAUTBHFRASLO
?Serbia'sexportsshowedresistanceinH12023,despitethedecreaseindemandfromtheEUandtheregion,onwhichitreliesthemost.Inthisperiod,mostofSerbianexportswenttotheEU,followedbyCEFTAandCIS.
?Bycountry,thelargestshareofexportswenttoGermany(14.8%),followedbyBosniaandHerzegovina(6.7%),Italy(6.4%),Hungary(5.5%)Romania(5.2%)andRussia(4.2%).
?MajorityofimportsinH12023comefromtheEU(around58%),followedbyCISandCEFTA.
?Comparedtothesameperiodofthepreviousyear,thevolumeofimportsfromGermanyinH12023overtookthevolumeofimportsfromChina,makingGermanythelargestimportingcountryagain(withashareof12.8%).
FavourableDevelopmentsintheLabourMarketandProductivityGrowth
Single-digitunemploymentrateinQ22023Significantcontributionoftotalfactor
(9.6%)
Chart17LabourmarketindicatorsaccordingtotheLFS*,(in%)
60,0
50,0
40,0
30,0
20,0
10,0
0,0
54.754.755.255.8
50.3
51.852.452.952.952.2
48.649.549.650.4
43.4
44.845.647.047.1
40.8
18.9
16.4
14.5
13.7
11.0
10.19.6
9.7
9.5
11.2
20152016201720182019202020212022**Q1Q2
2023
Employmentrate
UnemploymentrateActivityrate
Source:StatisticalOfficeRepublicofSerbia.
*LFSdatarevisedaccordingtothenewmethodologyfrom2021.
**From2022dataalignedwiththeCensus2022.
?AccordingtodatafromtheLabourForceSurvey(alignedwiththe2022census),theunemploymentratereturnedtoasingle-digitlevelinQ2andamountedto9.6%(-0.5p.p.comparedtoQ1),whiletheemploymentrateamountedto50.4%,whichisanincreaseof0.8p.p.comparedtoQ1.InQ2,therateofinformalemploymentwas12.3%(andwasunchangedcomparedtoQ1).
?Theactivityrate(persons15+)inQ22023amountedto55.8%,thusreachingarecordlevel,andby0.6p.p.ishighercomparedtoQ1.
?Therevisedaverageunemploymentratefor2022is9.5%,itslowestleveltodate.
productivityandcapitaltoGDPgrowth
Chart18ContributionoffactorsofproductiontoGDP*
(inpp,periodaverage)
8.07.06.05.04.03.02.01.00.0-1.0-2.0
-3.0
7.7
4.4
3.8
2.5
2.4
-0.9
2015-20172018-20192020
TFPCapital
20212022-20232024-2025
LabourGDP
Sources:SORS,NBScalculation.
*NBSestimate.
?Accelerationofeconomicgrowthintheperiod2018-2019wasdrivenmainlybyfasterproductivitygrowth.
?In2020,similartoothercountries,therewasatemporarydropinproductivityandanegativelabourcontributionduetoreductionintheparticipationrateduetothepandemic.
?From2021productivitywasthemaindriverofgrowth,alongwithinvestment.
?Inthemediumterm,wealsoexpectfromproductivityandinvestmenttobethemaindriversofGDPgrowth,whilethecontributionoflabourwillbelower.
11
2.01.9
1.6
1.0
GrowthinWagesandEmploymentDuring2023
RealwagegrowthintheprivatesectorintheperiodJanuary-August2023(1.8%y/y)
Chart19Nominalnetwagesbyeconomicsector(y/ygrowth,in%)
26,0
22,0
18,0
14,0
10,0
6,0
2,0
-2,0
Trade
Transportationandstorage
InformationandcommunicationsTourismandcattering
Education
Manufacturing
Construction
AdministrativeactivitiesAgriculture
HealthCare
Sources:SORS.January-August2023
?IntheperiodJanuary-August2023,thenominalaveragenetwagewas84,389dinars(720euros)andishigherby15.2%.Thegrowthwasdrivenbyafastergrowthofwagesintheprivatesector(16.6%y/y)thaninthepublicsector(12.2%y/y).
?During2023,adouble-digity/ygrowthofaveragewageswasachievedinalmostallactivities,anditismostpronouncedintradeandmanufacturing.
?Duringeightmonthsof2023,nominalnetwagesgrewslightlyfasterthaninflation,sobasedonfactorsfromthelabourmarket,nosignificantinflationarypressureswereinduced.
Highlevelofformalemploymentintheprivatesectorduringninemonthsof2023
Chart20Contributiontoy-o-ygrowthintotalformal
employmentbyeconomicsector(periodaverage,inpp)
4,0
3,0
2,0
3.3
2.6
2.62.6
1,0
0,0
-1,0
-2,0
2016201720182019202020212022Jan.-Sep.
Sources:SORSandNBScalculation.
Professionalact.;Admin.act.Industry&watersupply
Trade,F&A,Transport,ICT
Totalformalemployment(in%)
2023
Agriculture&farm.
Construction
Otheractivities
?TotalformalemploymentintheperiodQ1-Q32023amountedto2.36millionpersonsandishigherby2.6%y/y(59thousandpersons).Thisgrowthwasledbyprivatesectorgrowthof3.3%y/y(about56thousandpersons),withahighlevelofemploymentintheprivatesectorofabout1.75millionpersons.
?Employmentgrowthispresentinmostactivities.GrowthstandsoutinICT(employmentatarecordlevelofabout109thousandpersons)andinprofessionalandscientificactivities(thenumberofemployeesexceededthelevelof140thousandpersons),aswellasinmanufacturing(employmentofmorethan500thousandpersons).12
6.0
4.0
2.0
.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
-10.0
FiscalDevelopmentsinQ1-Q3WereBetterThanExpected
Inninemonthsof2023,theconsolidatedsurpluswasRSD15.8bn(0.3%ofGDP)
Chart21Centralgovernmentrevenues,expendituresand
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
.0
outcome(%shareinGDP)
1.1
0.6
0.3
-0.2
-1.2
-3.2
-3.5
-4.1
-5.1
-6.4-6.2
overabaance:
Primarybaancerhs
Fiscabaancerhs
Revenueshs
Expenditureshs
-8.0
20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022Q1-Q3
2023
.Intheyearsbeforepandemic,Serbiaeliminatedfiscaldeficit,withgovernmentinvestmentsreachingnear5%ofGDP.Higherdeficitin2020(8.3%ofGDP)wasaconsequenceofhighexpendituresrelatedtopandemic,whilein2021(4.1%ofGDP)mostlyinfluencedbythenewstimuluspackagetocorporatesandhouseholds.
.In2022,afiscaldeficitwasrecordedintheamountofRSD221.2bn(3.2%ofGDP),whichcontinuedthetrendofreducingthefiscaldeficit.Inninemonthsof2023,consolidatedbudgetsurpluswasrecordedatthelevelof0.3%ofGDP.
.In2023,accordingtotherevisedFiscalstrategy,itisplannedtoreducetheshareofthedeficitinGDPto2.8%ofGDP.Inmediumterm,weexpectitsreturntothelevelofaround-1.5%ofGDP.
PublicdebtremainsonadownwardtrajectoryandwithintheMaastrichtcriteria
Chart22Publicdebt(centralgovernment)
(%shareinGDP)
80.070.060.050.040.030.020.010.0.0
70.0
67.8
3
57.953.751.957.056.555.151.
20152016201720182019202020212022September
2023
otherSDRCHFEURUSDRSDPubicdebt
.In2021publicdebtwasreducedto56.5%ofGDP,despitetheissuanceofthreeEurobonds,whichwereintendedtocoverthegrowingfinancialneedsduetothepandemic.In2022publicwasreducedto55.1%ofGDP,despitetheimpactoftheglobalenergycrisisonthegrowthofbudgetexpendituresandtheprocurementofenergysources.
.AttheendofSeptember2023,theshareofpublicdebtinGDPamountedto51.3%andincreasedby0.4pprelativetoAugust,primarilyduetoForeignexchangedifferences.
.Publicdebtisexpectedtoremainonadownwardtrajectoryinthecomingyearswithfurtherreductionofcurrencyrisk.
13
14
MonetaryConditionsweretightenedinthePreviousMonthsThroughtheKeyPolicyRateandRequiredReserveRatio
InNovember2023,thekeypolicyrateremainedunchangedat6.5%
Chart23Interestrates
(in%)
22
KeyPolicyRate
20
DepositFacility
LendingFacility
BELIBOR1W
Averageinterestrateonrepoauction
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023
Inmakingsuchdecision,theExecutiveBoardprimarilytookintoaccountthefollowingfactors:
TherequiredreserveratiowasincreasedinSeptember
Chart24Reserverequirementratios
(in%)
50
40
30
20
10
0
FX<2Γ
RSD<2Γ
FX>2Γ
RSD>2Γ
29.0
26.0
23.0
20.0
22.0
19.0
16.0
13.0
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