羅蘭貝格+趨勢2050：六個(gè)大趨勢將塑造世界-英

TrendCompendium2050Sixmegatrendsthat

willshapetheworldJune

2023TheRoland

Berger

Trend

Compendium

2050

focuses

onstable,

long-termdevelopments

…2050>

The

Roland

BergerTrend

Compendium2050

is

aglobaltrendstudycompiledbyRolandBergerInstitute(RBI),thethinktankofRolandBerger.OurTrend

Compendium

2050describes

themost

important

megatrendsshapingthe

worldbetween

nowand2050>

Ourtrend

viewsarebased

onexpert

sourcesandassessments.Estimatesreflectthe

normalcase,

i.e.

astable

developmentof

theglobaleconomyinthelongterm>

To

incorporate

today's

uncertainties

into

strategic

planning,

werecommendcombiningthe

megatrendsoftheRolandBergerTrend

Compendium2050with

the

RolandBergerscenarioplanning

approachIs

it

worthdealing

with

megatrends

when

globally

impactful

eventssuch

as

theCOVID-19pandemic

orthewar

in

Ukraine

aretaking

place?Ofcourse!

Thecoronaviruspandemic

andthewarinUkrainehavefar-reaching

consequences

anddeeplyaffectedpeople,

economies

andpolitics

butneither

eventhasderailedthemegatrends

analyzedherein;

such

is

theinherent

nature

ofmegatrends:

climatechange,

societal

aging,or

technologicalinnovations

do

notlose

their

momentum,

theirdirection

or

theirimportance.

To

cope

withsuch

challenges

andtomasterresulting

opportunities,

ourawareness

andour

understanding

ofmegatrends

isvital

–not

leasttodevelop

sustainable

answers22…andcovers

sixmegatrends

that

shape

the

futuredevelopment

ofour

worldto20501

2

3

4

5

6PeoplePolitics

&

Environment

Economics

TechnologyHealth

&Care&Society

Governance

&Resources

&Business

&InnovationPopulationMigrationGlobalRisksGeopoliticsClimateChange&PollutionGlobalTradeValueofGlobalHealthChallenges&ValueChainsInnovationBiodiversityPower

ShiftsFrontierTechnologiesHealthcare

oftheFutureEducation&LaborFutureofDemocracyResources&RawMaterialsEnergyTransformationHumans&MachinesCaregivingValuesDebtChallenge3Megatrend1People

&Society4

People&Beyond

mere

demographics,

peopleandsociety

are

atthe

core

ofourthinking

–People

are

onthemove,

are

eager

tolearn

andrely

onvaluesSociety1.1PopulationSubtrends

ofmegatrend

"People

&

Society"1.21

2

3

4Migration1.3Education&Labor1.4Values

Politics

&Governance

Environment&ResourcesPopulation

Migration

Education

Values&Labor

Economics&Business

Technology&Innovation

Health

&Care55

People&Population

trends

toward

2050pointtoamyriad

ofchanges

worldwide

forregions

as

wellas

countries,

their

growth

rates

andagestructuresSociety1.1PopulationGlobalpopulationtrends

–Selectedfacts

andfiguresDespite

global1.2aging,hugeWorldMigrationdifferences

in

thepopulationgrowthisfueledbygrowthinlessdeveloped

countries.median

ageof1.3Education&

Laborcountries

persist

in2050:Niger:17.7yearsvs.SouthKorea:56.7Population

inSub-SaharanAfricawill1.4Valuesdouble

from2020In

April

2023,Our

worldisIn2050,

1.7to2050withapopulation

ofaging.In2050

therewillbe

more

than

1.6billionpeople

aged1.43

bn,India

overtookbillion

moreChina

astheworld'speople

willinhabitour

planet(2023:

8.0

billion2050:

9.7

billion)

Politics

&most

populousGovernance65+

years(2023:

808country.

In2050

Indiawillhaveabout1.67billioninhabitantsmillion)

and3.2million

aged100+

Environment&Resources

Economics&BusinessStanding

side

byside,

the

predicted9.7billion

strongpopulation

of2050would

spantheequatormorethan240times.However,

averageglobalpopulationdensity

willonlyrise

to74.5peoplepersqkm1)

–aroundaquarterofthe

populationdensity

ofthe

United

Kingdom

today

Technology&Innovation

Health

&Care1)

Calculation

basedonthe

Earth's

land

areaexcluding

AntarcticaSources:

UNPopulation

Division;

UNPopulation

Fund;UN:Roland

Berger66

People&The

populationgrowth

rate

isdecreasing

due

tolowerfertilityrates

–In2050,

thevast

majority

ofthe

9.7

billionwillliveinless

developed

regionsSociety1.1PopulationEvolutionof

worldpopulation1950-2100[bn]Globalpopulationcharacteristics2050[%]>

Accordingto

the

UNmediumvariantprediction,

the

worldpopu-lation

willgrowataslowerpacebetween

2020and

2050comparedto

previousdecades,

reaching

apopulation

of9.7billionin

20501.2MigrationEconomicorigin

ofinhabitants13%2086:LessdevelopedregionsDevelopedregions>

The

evolutionoftheworldpopulationisdrivenbytwofactors:

the

evolutionoffertilityrates

andthe

evolutionoflifeexpectancy1.3Education&

Labor10.43

bn2050:

9.7bn87%2100:10.35

bn–

Global

fertility

rates

areexpected

to

decrease

from2.31births

per

woman

in2023to2.15births

per

woman

in2050.This

lowersthe

rate

of1.4ValuesResidentialarea

ofinhabitants1)

68%32%RuralUrban2023:8.0bnpopulation

growth

Politics

&–

Average

lifeexpectancy

isexpected

to

increase

from73.4yearsin2023to

77.2yearsin2050,globally.This

drivespopulation

growth,

but

cannottotally

compensate

forGovernance17%0-1920-6465+27%Ageofinhabitants

Environment&Resources56%decreasingfertility

rates

Economics&Business>

In

2050,the

majority

ofthe

globalpopulation

will

stem

fromlessdevelopedregions,

residesinurbanareas,

is

between

15and64years

oldandhasalife1950:2.5bn18%43%<70Lifeexpectancyatbirth

Technology40%70-80>80&Innovation1950200020502100expectancy

of

morethan

70years

Health

&Care1)

Thedefinition

ofurban

areas

follows

the

definitions

thatare

usedineach

countrySources:

UNPopulation

Division;

Roland

Berger77

People&Over

the

next

three

decades,

Africa's

populationwillincrease

by

more

than1billion

–Asiaremains

the

world's

population

giantSociety1.1PopulationPopulation

bycontinent

2023and2050andgrowthrates

[m,%]To

pfive

countries

perregionbypopulation2050[m]1.2MigrationAsiaIndia1,670China1,313Pakistan368Indonesia

Bangladesh3179,687203+12%+71%AsiaAfrica1.3Education&

Labor8,009LatAm/Carribean

+13%AfricaNigeria375D.R.

Congo

EthiopiaEgypt160Tanzania129215213-5%+11%+29%EuropeNorthern

AmericaOceania1.4Values5,2902,466LatAm/BrazilMexico144Colombia57Argentina52Peru42Caribbean

2314,737

Politics

&GovernanceEuropeRussia134Germany79UK72France66Italy52

Environment&Resources1,443Bermuda<1Greenland<1S.Pierre

&NorthernAmericaUSA375Canada46

EconomicsMiquelon

<1&Business749704743662

TechnologyOceaniaAustralia32Papua

N.NewSolomonFiji1378421&InnovationGuinea

15

Zealand

6

Islands

1452023582050

Health

&Care8Sources:

UNPopulation

Division;

Roland

Berger8

People&Allregions

are

agingwithfewerpeople

ofworking

agehaving

tosupportmore

older

people

–Intercontinental

differences

remain

significantSociety1.1PopulationMedianage[years]andold-agepotential

supportratio

byregion2023vs.

2050[number

of

working-age

people(20-64yearsold)/numberof

people65+yearsold]>

Alowold-age

potentialsupport

ratio

can

havesevere

consequencesforcountries

wherealargeshareofpublicexpenditure

is1.2Migrationallocated,

forexample,to

health,

caregivingand

social

security,which

istaken

upbyolder

members

ofsociety

to

a1.3Education47.343.442.238.439.8&

Labor31.93.32.33.01.86.03.01.4Valuesproportionally

largerextentNorthernAmericaEuropeAsia>

However,thereareseveral

caveats:

Theold-agesupport

ratioignoresthe

factthatpeopleabove

theageof65are

not

Politics

&Governancenecessarily

dependentonsupport

asarisingproportion

is(still)

inworkor

hasaccess

toother

financial

Environment&Resources40.438.231.06.332.73.113.2

23.9

9.34.33.018.8

Economics&Businessresources;also,

bycontrast,

not

all

ofthose

considered

ofworkingage

areLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanAfricaOceania

Technology&Innovationactually

workingMedian

age:20232050Old-age

potentialsupportratio:20232050

Health

&Care9Sources:

UNPopulation

Division;

Roland

Berger9

People&International

net

migration

flowsbetweenregions

are

expected

tobeonahighleveltoward

2050

–This

reflects

only

oneof

many

aspects

ofmigrationSociety1.1PopulationCumulative

net

inter-regionalmigrationInterregionalandMigrantswithincountries(IDPs3)stock)2021

[m]>

Accordingto

the

UN,"international

migrants

aredefinedaseither

living

inacountry

otherthan

their

countryofbirthorin

acountry

otherthan

their

country

ofcitizenship"intraregional

migrants(stock)20202)

[m]1.2Migrationflows2023-20501)

[m]62.5205.459.14.03.02.0OceaniaEurope2.7NigeriaThe

majority

ofinternationalmigrants

(interregionalandintraregional

migrants)

arenotrefugees

orasylum

seekershavinglefttheir

home

countrydueto

conflicts,

persecution

orsimilar,but

aredefinedas3.1>1.3Education&

LaborOceania6.94.2Ethiopia8.4Latin

America

&theCaribbean22.6NorthernAmericaYemen4.35.2Central

&Southern

AsiaColombiaDem

Rep.

CongoAfghanistanSyriaAsia1.4ValuesAfricaEastern

&South-Eastern

Asia86.7129.15.55.7migrating

foreconomic,35.8LatAm/Caribbean0.8educational

orother

reasons11.3Sub-Saharan

AfricaOthers11.5Northern

Africa&

Western

Asia>

In

2021

there

havebeen31.7millioninternational

refugeesand

asylum

seekers

globally;69%came

fromjustfivecountries:

Syria,Venezuela,Afghanistan,

South

Sudan,andMyanmar

Politics

&15.46.7Europe

&Northern

AmericaGovernance17.819.1

Environment&Resources-45.795.224.8>

IDPs

arerefugees

whostaywithintheirown

country.

2021,the

majority

of

IDPs(53.2million)

fledconflicts

andviolence,the

remaining

5.9million

fleddisasters

Economics53.3&Business-11.7-5.2-62.5

TechnologyInter-Intra-regional&Innovationregional(destinations)

Health

&1)

Interregionalmigration

includes

only

migration

between

regions;

data

arebasedon

UNmedium

variant

forecast2)

Numbersof

interregional

migrants

arefor

destination

regions;

intraregional

migration

includes

only

migrationbetween

countries

within

aregion;

3)IDPs:internally

displaced

peopleSources:

UNPopulation

Division;

IOM;Internal

Displacement

Monitoring

Centre/Norwegian

Refugee

Council;

Roland

BergerCare1010

People&Without

globalactionuntil2050,

upto216

millioninternal

climate

migrantsare

forecast

–Sub-SaharanAfricaandAsiawillbe

affectedthe

mostSociety1.1PopulationInternalclimate

migrants

inselected

regions2050accordingtoWorld

Bank'spessimistic

scenario[m]1.286>

Global

climate

and

environmentalmigration

forecasts

to2050

rangewidely,from25million

to

1billionpeopleMigration"Climate

migrationis

the

human

faceofclimate

change"1.3Education&

Labor>

The

majority

ofclimate

migrants

willbecome

internally

displaced,

i.e.they

will

beforcedto

move

withintheir

owncountry

dueto

increasingclimate

change

impacts

suchasrisingsea

levels,crop

failure,waterstress

etc.World

Bank1.4Values49>

Inapessimistic

scenario

(highgreen-housegasemissions

combinedwith

unequal

development

pathways),the

World

Bank

expects

216millioninternal

climate

migrants

acrossthesix

World

Bank

regions40

Politics

&Governance

Environment19>

Accordingto

World

Bank

estimates,the

global

community

couldmanagetolowerthenumberofpeopleforced

tomoveduetoclimatechange

by60-80%ifwe

manage

tocut

greenhousegases,embed

climatemigration

indevelopment

planning,andinvest

to

improveour17&Resources

Economics5&Business

TechnologySubSaharanAfricaEast

AsiaSouth

AsiaNorth

Africa

Latin

AmericaEasternEurope

andCentral

Asia&InnovationandPacificunderstanding

ofinternal

climatemigration

inthe

firstplace

Health

&Care11Sources:

World

Bank;Roland

Berger11

People&Education

iskey

toindividual

andnational

prosperity

–Globally,

more

andmore

peoplewillhave

access

tohigher

educationSociety1.1PopulationAverage

number

ofyearsof

educationcompletedin2020relatedto

GDP

percapitaPPPin20201)[years,USD

'000]Highest

educationalattainment

ofglobaladultpopulation[share

in%]1.2Migration706050403020100PostsecondarySecondaryGDPper

capitaNorwayUSA1.36050403020100PrimaryEducationGermany&LaborAustraliaNo

educationFranceItalyUK1.4ValuesKoreaJapanIsraelRussiaTurkiye

Politics

&Central

AfricanRep.ChinaArgentinaAlbaniaGovernancePakistanBrazilWorldColombia

EnvironmentIndiaNigeriaIndonesia&ResourcesYearsofeducationCongo,

D.R.

Economics56789101112131419601980200020202040206020802100&Business>

Ourworldwill

beinhabited

bymore

and

more

educated

people

asthe

shareofpeoplewith

noeducation

continues

to

decrease>

By2050,onlyfivecountries

are

predicted

tohaveashare

ofnon-educated

peoplethat

is>20%:

Burkina

Faso,Ethiopia,

Guinea,

Mali,

andNiger

Technology&Innovation>

This

risinglevelofeducational

attainment

isaresult

ofchanging

attitudes

towards

education,

morepublicinvestment,andnewmethods,suchastheopportunity

to

increasinglyaccess

education

online

Health

&Care1)

Number

of

years

of

education

completed

by

people

aged

25+.

PPPstands

for

purchasing

power

parity.

GDPpercapita

PPP

incurrent

(2020)

international

DollarSources:

Wittgenstein

Centre;World

Bank;Roland

Berger1212

People&The

shortage

ofskilled

workers

poses

aproblem

formany

labormarkets

–Onepossible

optionisto

attract

skilled

workers

from

developing

economiesSociety1.1PopulationPotential

net-inflows

p.a.

into

theworkforceinthe

respectiveyear2022-20501)

[m]1.2Countries

with

anegative/mixed

net-inflow

2022-2050>

Inmany

advanced

economiestheyoungest

age

groupsofthebaby

boomers(born

1946-1964)

–

avery

largeage

cohort–

willexit

theworkforce

incomingyearsMigration50.60.4China>

During

thisperiod,

thenewcohort

entering

theworkforce

ismuchsmaller,thusresulting

inanegativenet-inflow

in

thesecountriesBrazilJapanUS1.3Education&Labor1.5

-0.30-0.5-0.60.40.2-0.2>Becauseofthe(now

abolished)

one-child-policy,China,

theworld’s

largest

labor

market,will

alsofaceashrinking

workforce

from

20270.0-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.3-5-0.2-0.4-0.6GermanySouth

Korea1.4Values>Countries

withhighfertility

rates

willhave

a

positivenet-inflow.

Attracting

skilled

workers

from

thesecountries

canbeone

option

tocounter

the

loomingshortage

ofsuch

workers

inadvanced

economies

–butthere

are

prosand

cons:-10-9.820252

2030

2035

2040

2045

205020225

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Politics

&–

Pros:easing

workforce

shortages

inadvancedeconomies,attractive

prospectsfor

skilledworkersfrom

developing

economies,

further

education

andtraining

ofskilled

workers

inadvanced

economies(who

canlaterapply

thesenewskillsif

returning

totheir

country

oforigin),

remittances

supporting

thewelfare

andprosperity

indeveloping

economies–

Cons:

brain

drain

indeveloping

economies,familyseparation,

costofattracting

and

integrating

workers,language

and

cultural

barriersCountries

with

a

positive

net-inflow

2022-2050Governance17.03.0

Environment2.6India15105Indonesia&Resources2.52.0

Economics1.31.51.10.90.1EgyptMexico&BusinessNigeriaPakistan5.94.23.93.83.61.0

1.30.5>

Selectedother

measures

toincrease

theworkforce

inadvancedeconomies:

increase

women'sparticipation,educate

non-skilled

people

toenable

themto

entertheworkforce,

increasethe

retirement

age,

increaseworking

times

Technology&Innovation00.020225

2030

2035

2040

2045

205020252

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Health

&Care1)

Thepotential

net-inflow

is

thedifference

between

potential

inflow

(people

aged

20

enteringworkforce

within

the

currentyear)

andpotential

outflow

(people

aged

65,

leaving

theworkforce

inthe

currentyear)Sources:

UNPopulation

Division;

Roland

Berger1313

People&People

andvalues:Human

rights:

Selectionof

significant

developmentsSocietyAccording

tothe

signatoriesoftheUNDeclaration

ofHumanRights,

everyone

isentitled

tothe

30rights

andfreedoms

therein

–Inreality,claiming

these

entitlementsismixed

andfraught

withsetbacks1.1Population1in

10children

are

subjected

to140

(now

196)

countriesratify

UN

Convention

onthe

Rights

ofthe

Childchild

labor

worldwide

–COVID-19disrupted

an

otherwise19902020sencouraging

downward

trend1.2MigrationBarack

Obama

becomesthe

first

African-Americanpresident

oftheUnitedStates"I

can't

breathe":

GeorgeFloyd

isbrutally

killed

by

police,

sparkingviolent

protests

and

social

unrest2008

20201.3Education&

LaborArecord

number

(533)

ofjournalists

were

imprisoned

atthe

endof

2022,

while

65areheld

hostage

and

49are

missing;57

have

beenkilled

in

2022UN

action

plan

onthesafety

ofjournalists201220221.4ValuesUniversalDeclarationofHuman

Rights1948:Article2"Everyoneis

entitled

to

allthe

rightsand

freedoms

setforthinthis

Declaration,

withoutdistinction

ofany

kind,such

asrace,

color,

sex,language,

religion,political

orotheropinion,national

orsocial

origin,property,

birthorotherstatus.

(…)"

Politics

&Press

freedom:Journalists

arefacinganincreasinglydifficultreportingenvironmentGovernanceNumber

ofcountries,

where

the

Environment69situation

regarding

thefreedomofthepress

is

…&Resources62Selected

rights

andfreedoms:>

Article

1:"Allhuman

beingsare

bornfreeandequal

in42

Economics4038GoodSatisfactoryProblematicDifficultVery

seriousdignity

andrights.

(…)"&Business272826>

Article

3:"Everyonehasthe

right

to

life,liberty

and20security

ofperson."

Technology8>

Article

5:"Nooneshall

besubjectedto

torture

or

cruel,&Innovationinhuman

or

degradingtreatment

or

punishment."20132022

Health

&Care14Sources:

UN;

UNCRC;

UNICEF;Reporterswithout

borders;

Roland

Berger

People&The

evolution

ofhumanfreedom

paints

amixed

picture

–Howwillglobalvalues

be

shaped

inthefuture?Society1.1PopulationHuman

FreedomIndex2022What

tolook

out

fortoward

20501.2Throughto

2050,the

global

consensus

onvalues

basedonhuman

rights

andpersonal,civilandeconomicfreedoms

will

shift

alongside

theglobal

powershift.Changes

invaluesandbeliefs,in

geopolitical

power,

socio-economic

evolution,andtechnology

denote

what

liesaheadMigration1.3Education&

LaborSelected

push-and-pullfactors

include:>

The

tendency

towards

rivalrous

multipolarity

–whatdoesit

mean

for

global

values?1.4Values>

If

rising

powersapproach

protecting

human

rights(alsobeyondtheir

borders)and

adjusttheir

ownself-determination

policies

–or

not>

Whether

commonefforts

tosolve

global

problems(climate

change,

biodiversity

loss,UNSustainableDevelopment

Goals,

etc.)

lead

to

acommonrecognition

Politics

&GovernanceLessfreedomMorefreedomNo

dataofimportant

human

rights

–or

not

Environment>

Whether

emerging

middleclasses

push

formore

rights(evenif

not

fulldemocracy)

ashistorically

hasbeen

thecase

–ornot&ResourcesLess

free–thetrajectory

ofglobal

human

freedom:

Since

2008,

the

HumanFreedom

Index(basedon

acomposite

of50%

personal

and50%

economicindicators)

has

decreased,

withasharp

decline

during

theCOVID-19

pandemic,from7.03

in2019

to6.81

in2020

–thelowest

leveloffreedomof

the

past

twodecades.

Theindex

isratherwidespread

between

0and10,

Switzerlandhasthehighest

value(8.94),

Syriathelowest(3.30).

Thereare

110

countries

withadecreasing

level

offreedom

and

31

countries

withincreased

ratings.Personalfreedomindicators,

in

particular,

declined

markedly

Economics>

How

bottom-uptechnologies

that

enhance

freedomevolvevis-a-vis

top-down

surveillanceandinformationcontrol&Business

Technology>

If

the

Internetremains

an

unfettered

informationconduit

–ornot&Innovation

Health

&Care15Sources:

Cato

Institute;ForesightAlliance;

Roland

Berger15

People&MainsourcesSociety1.1PopulationMegatrend1

–People

&

Society1.2MigrationUnited

Nations(UN)

Population

Division:

World

Population

Prospects

2022./wpp/Download/Standard/Population/UNPopulation

Division:World

Urbanization

Prospects

2018./wup/Download/1.3UNPopulation

Division:International

Migration2019./en/development/desa/population/migration/publications/migrationreport/docs/InternationalMigration2019_Report.pdfEducation&LaborUNInternational

Organisation

forMigration(IOM):World

Migration

Report

2022.

/books/world-migration-report-2022Internal

Displacement

MonitoringCentre/Norwegian

Refugee

Council:

Global

Report

onInternal

Displacement

2022.ernal-1.4/global-report/grid2022/ValuesWorld

Bank:

Groundswell

Report–Part

2,2022./handle/10986/36248Wittgenstein

Centre:

Human

Capital

data,

March2023./wcde-v2/World

Bank:

GDP

data,

March2023./indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD

Politics

&GovernanceUN:

UniversalDeclaration

ofHuman

Rights,

1948./en/universal-declaration-human-rights/UN:Plan

onSafetyfor

Journalists,

2012./depts/german/menschenrechte/UN_Plan_on_Safety_Journalists_DUED.pdfReporters

withoutborders:

World

PressFreedom

Index

2022./en/index

Environment&Resources

Economics&BusinessCato

Institute:

TheHuman

FreedomIndex2022.

/sites//files/2023-01/human-freedom-index-2022.pdf

TechnologyForesight

Alliance:

WhoWillBe

Free?The

Battles

forHuman

Rights

to

2050,2012.

/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Future_of_human_rights.pdf&Innovation

Health

&Care1616Megatrend2Politics

&Governance17

People

&SocietyGlobalrisks

center

around

environmental

concerns

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shifts

are

underway

–Decline

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traits

accelerates

Politics

&GovernanceSubtrends

ofmegatrend"Politics

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2

3Risks2.2Geo-politics2.3FutureofDemocracy

Environment&ResourcesGlobalRisksGeo-politicsFuture

ofDemocracy

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Health

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People

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globalrisks

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–For

the

decade

ahead,environmental

risks

weigh

inheavily

Politics

&GovernanceTop

20globalrisks

onaten-yearhorizonbylikely

severityof

impact2.1GlobalRisks>

The

World

Economic

Forum's

Global

Risksreport

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annual

Global

RisksPerception

Survey,completed

bymore

than1,200members

fromthe

WEF'snetwork

ofbusiness,

government,

civilsociety

thoughtleaders,policy

makers

andriskexperts.

Inputforthe

2023report

wassought

inthe

fallof2022123456Failureto

mitigate

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changeFailureofclimate-change

adaptationNatural

disasters

andextremeweather

eventsBiodiversity

loss

andecosystem

collapseLarge-scale

involuntary

migrationNaturalresource

crises2.2Geo-politics789Erosion

ofsocial

cohesion

andsocietal

polarizationWidespreadcybercrime

andcyberinsecurityGeoeconomic

confrontation>

The

WEFdefines

global

risk

as"the

possibilityofthe

occurrenceofaneventor

conditionwhich,

ifit

occurs,wouldnegatively

impact

asignificant

proportion

ofglobalGDP,

populationor

naturalresources."2.3Future

ofDemocracy1011121314151617181920Large-scale

environmental

damage

incidentsMisinformation

anddisinformationIneffectiveness

ofmultilateral

institutions

and

international

cooperationInterstate

conflict>

Among

the

WEFGlobal

Risks2023

assessmentwith

a10-yearview,environmental

(climate-and

nature-related)

risks

clearly

dominate

thetop

5aswellasth