應用時間序列分析作業(yè)1

應用時間序列分析作業(yè)1、原始數(shù)據(jù)我國1949—2005年人口自然增長率194916196827.38198716.61195019196926.08198815.73195120197025.83198915.04195220197123.33199014.39195323197222.16199112.98195424197320.89199211.6195520.32197417.48199311.45195620.5197515.69199411.21195723.23197612.66199510.55195817.24197712.06199610.42195910.19197812199710.061960-4.57197911.6119989.1419613.78198011.8719998.18196226.99198116.6120007.58196333.33198215.7320016.95196427.64198315.0420026.45196528.38198414.3920036.01196626.22198514.2620045.87196725.53198615.5720055.89表12、對原始數(shù)據(jù)進行處理：增長率：對進行平滑處理：先對進行平滑再平方后得到的數(shù)值：對平方：先對取平方再進行平滑得到的數(shù)值：樣本方差：標準差注：=-；年份194916025600001950191625636125600161619512016.9285.61400287.51.891.374778.6513625.1486419522017.83317.9089400321.253.34111.827876.8627928.7972119532318.481341.547361529344.8753.327641.824187.5359129.4260919542419.8367393.4946669576400.11256.617832.572514.4016135.27179195520.3221.08569444.6063228412.9024452.878758.272432.876183.8285938.34279195620.520.855983434.9720269420.25440.8858455.913822.431836.2649835.44699195723.2320.749188430.5288068539.6329434.6950924.166282.041158.502332.99608195817.2421.493432461.967605297.2176466.1764344.208832.051549.1841733.80269195910.1920.217402408.7433505103.8361415.4887846.745432.59724.6342235.800591960-4.5717.209182296.155928520.8849321.99297925.83715.08302-13.28947.7072819613.7810.675427113.96474314.2884231.660555117.69610.8488-54.41775.76805196226.998.606798974.07698806728.4601166.44890992.37199.61103-49.05966.27299196333.3314.121759199.42408461110.889335.052266135.62811.646-55.75483.99747196427.6419.884231395.3826617763.9696567.803256172.42113.1309-58.90198.66965196528.3822.210962493.3268346805.4244626.653159133.32611.5467-47.06991.49117196626.2224.061673578.9641281687.4884680.284532101.3210.0658-36.33384.4565196725.5324.709171610.5431512651.7809682.44569271.90258.47954-26.16875.58639196827.3824.95542622.7729863749.6644673.24625450.47337.10445-17.67167.58214196926.0825.682794659.6059069680.1664696.17169836.56586.04697-10.59961.96459197025.8325.801956665.7409226667.1889691.37010925.62925.06253-4.5732563325.810369666.1751506544.2889684.11574617.94064.235630.3965751.22417197222.1625.066258628.317307491.0656642.16769213.85043.721612.7365947.39592197320.8924.194381585.368064436.3921596.83706511.4693.386593.8748344.51393197417.4823.203067538.382299305.5504548.70357510.32133.212673.9270242.47911197515.6921.486147461.6544961246.1761475.75762314.10313.75541-1.046344.01862197612.6619.747303389.955961160.2756406.88316616.92724.11427-4.938344.43291197712.0617.621112310.5035824145.4436332.90089622.39734.73258-10.77446.0165919781215.952778254.4911351144276.66370722.17264.70878-12.344.20543197911.6114.766945218.0626588134.7921236.86459518.80194.33612-11.2540.78366198011.8713.819861190.988568140.8969206.24284715.25433.90567-9.614237.2539198116.6113.234903175.1626562275.8921186.63906311.47643.38768-7.091233.56101198215.7314.247432202.9893205247.4329213.41497410.42573.22888-5.125833.6207198315.0414.692202215.8608127226.2016223.6203527.759542.78559-2.021431.40577198414.3914.796542218.9376467207.0721224.3947265.457082.336040.7803128.81278198514.2614.674579215.3432747203.3476219.1979383.854661.963332.894626.45456198615.5714.550205211.7084783242.4249214.4428372.734361.653594.6286724.47174198716.6114.856144220.7050088275.8921222.8374562.132451.460296.094423.61788198815.7315.382301236.6151738247.4329238.7538492.138681.462426.60777240415.48661239.8351037226.2016241.3575641.522461.233888.0833322.88989199014.3915.352627235.7031658207.0721236.8107751.107611.052439.0380521.66721199112.9815.063839226.9192493168.4804227.8891730.969920.984859.1547620.97292199211.614.438687208.4756935134.56210.0665411.590851.261296.8709622.00641199311.4513.587081184.6087748131.1025187.4145792.80581.675053.5367623.6374199411.2112.945957167.597798125.6641170.5209552.923161.709722.6876123.2043199510.5512.42517154.3848439111.3025157.0638982.679051.636782.6044822.24586199610.4211.862619140.7217258108.5764143.3354792.613751.616712.1623621.56288199710.0611.429833130.6410867101.2036132.9077552.266671.505552.3965620.4631119989.1411.018883121.415787783.5396123.3965091.980721.407382.574619.4631719998.1810.455218109.311588966.9124111.4394362.127851.458711.7029319.207520007.589.772652895.5047424457.456498.08132532.576581.605170.1416119.403720016.959.114856983.080617248.302585.89384772.813231.67727-0.948819.1784720026.458.465399971.6629948641.602574.61644342.953451.71856-1.84618.7767620036.017.860779961.7918607136.120164.71226042.92041.70892-2.392718.1142920045.877.30554595