全球投資策略展望–2024年主要觀點(diǎn)：扭曲點(diǎn)來了

ListentoaListentoashortsummaryofthisreport2023年12月8日2023年12月8日02一個(gè)簡單但有用的框架04從服務(wù)到商品，又從商05供給的角色06什么會(huì)導(dǎo)致下一次經(jīng)濟(jì)07下一輪美國衰退的時(shí)間08下一次美國經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退會(huì)11通脹應(yīng)該會(huì)下降，但第二波通脹的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)依然存在16這次單戶住宅不會(huì)出現(xiàn)過剩……17……或者資本支出過剩19更多財(cái)政刺激即將到20歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)展望21歐洲通脹走低將帶來幫助……22……但還不足以防止經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退23中國：刺激力度不夠24中國經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨的結(jié)構(gòu)性挑戰(zhàn)25“日本化”風(fēng)險(xiǎn)26A.全球資產(chǎn)配置29B.股票35C.固定收益38企業(yè)利差未反映經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退38D.貨幣42E.大宗商品EditorialBoardPeterBerezinChiefGlobalStrategistRitikaMankar,CFAEditor/StrategistMelanieKermadjianSeniorAnalystMiroslavAradskiEditor/StrategistLucasLaskeyAssociateVicePresidentChanhyuckLeeResearchAnalystSaifaliLokhandwalaResearchAssociateChiefGlobalAssetAllocationStrategist出的2024年底標(biāo)普500指數(shù)目標(biāo)點(diǎn)位為降至2%，10年期美國國債收益率將降至3%。Pts80400-40Pts40200-20Pts40200-20MACROQUANTMACROQUANTRECOMMENDEDALLOCATIONRELATIVETOBENCHMARK*1-TO-3MONTHHORIZON12-MONTHHORIZONEQUITYBlackandgreendotsrepresentpreliminaryDecemberestimatesBONDBOND-3.3%CASHCASH061014*BENCHMARKALLOCATIONISBASEDONA60/40%Pts80400-40%Pts40200-20%Pts40200-20NOTE:THEAVERAGEEQUITYALLOCATIONINTHEBACKTESTIS60.1%.SOURCE:MACROQUANT2.0BETA(ASSETALLOCATIONCopyright?2023BCAResearchInc.AllRightsReserved.Refertolastpageforanimportantdisclaimer.02幾年的推薦閱讀清單類似，GarryEvans和他的團(tuán)隊(duì)為這個(gè)假期整理了一份他們最喜BCResearch03BCMResearch2023正是扭曲菲利普斯曲線框架所預(yù)測(cè)的情景BCResearch0404WAGEdemandhelpedsufficientincreaseresulteddemandhelpedsufficientincreaseresultedOncetheeconomyemployment,itstartedtoleadtohigherTightermonetaryandinfallinginflation:amassivedecreaseinlabor(LD0toLD1).labordemandrecover.Withinlabordemand(LD1toLD2)inincreasedemploymentwhileinflationstayedloreachedfulloverheat,wheredemand(LD2toLD3)fiscalpolicyhelped(LD3toLD4),resultingdespitearesilientBLSUPPLYLD3CLD4LD0LD2LD1DA(FULLEMPLOYMENT)%86405%86405US(6-MONTHPERCENTCHANGE, OCTJANAPRJULOCTJANAPRJULOCTJANWAGEGROWTHWWFLEXIBLEWAGESFLEXIBLEWAGESLLLWAGEGROWTHWLJobopeningsLJobopeningsJobopeningsLLFIXEDWAGES(FULLEMPLOYMENT)LABOR(L)(FULLEMPLOYMENT)LABOR(L)TnUS$06TnUS$06TnUS$TnUS$TnUS$USUSREALPERSONALCONSUMPTIONEXPENDITUREOVERALL Tn US$US$--PRE-PANDEMICTREND Tn SERVICES--PRE-SERVICES--PRE-PANDEMICTRENDGOODSRELATIVEGOODSRELATIVETOSERVICESBCResearchINFLATION““INFLATION“INFLATION“GOODSSUPPLYSUPPLYDEMANDEMANDSERVICESSERVICESSUPPLYDEMANDDEMANDOUTPUTYYOUTPUTWAGEGROWTHSUPPLYSUPPLYSUPPLYThedeclineinlaborsupplyduringthepandemicincreasedwagepressuresLDEMANDUSJOBS-WORKEResearchLaborsurplLabordeficUSJOBS-WORKEResearchLaborsurplLabordeficit08%405055606570758*JOBS-WORKERSGAPISTHEDIFFERENCEBETWEENLABORDEMAND(SUMOFJOBOPENINGSANDCIVILIANEMPLOYMENT)ANDLABORSUPPLY(CIVILIANLABORFORCE)ASAPERCENTOFTHELABORSUPPLY.HISTORICALJOBOPENINGSDATAAREEXTENDEDUSINGTHECOMPOSITEHELP-WANTEDINDEXESTIMATEDINREGISBARNICHON,"BUILDINGACOMPOSITEHELP-WANTEDINDEX",ECONOMICSLETTERSVOLUME109,ISSUE3,(DECEMBER2010).JOBOPENINGSSINCEJUNE2022AREBASEDONBLSJOLTSJOBOPENINGSANDESTIMATESUSINGINDEEDJOBPOSTINGSINDEX.NOTE:SHADEDAREASDENOTENBER-DESIGNATEDRECESSIONS.我們認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退開始于2024年下半年的幾率為50%，開始于2024年下半年的幾率為25%，開始于2025年或更晚的幾率為25%。過去的加息措施對(duì)GDP水平約三分之一的BCResearch0909%FEDTIGHTENINGCYCLES87652004432131231YEARS0-0.06-0.080impactonrealGDPfrompastFedratehikesisyettobefeltCUMULATIVEEFFECTONREALGDPLEVELEFFECTONREALGDPEFFECTONREALGDP0RATE,INPERCENT060%of60%oftheimpactonhoursworkedfrompastFedratehikesisyettobefeltCUMULATIVEEFFECTONEFFECTONHOURSWORKEDNOTE:SOLIDBLACKLINESDEPICTTHEMTHATHAVEYETTOCOME.THEDARKLYANDLIGHTLYSHADEDREGIONSSURROUNDINGTHESOLIDANDDASSTANDSFORCONSUMERPRICEINDEX.FORFURTHERDETAILS業(yè)貸款將在2024年下半年下降10%。這種信收益?zhèn)l(fā)行人的12個(gè)月違約率已從1.2%美國最大的25家銀行的貸存比低于較小的%8060400-60-80US─BANKLENDINGSTANDARD BCBCChg0*SHOWNADVANCEDBY62WEEKS.WEIGHTED-AVERAGEOFLOANSTOSMALLANDLARGEFIRMS.NETPERCENTAGEOFRESPONDENTSTIGHTENINGSTANDARDS.POSITIVEVALUESDENOTEEASINGSTANDARDS,WHILENEGATIVEVALUESDENOTETIGHTENINGSTANDARDS.SOURCE:FEDERALRESERVE,SENIORLOANOFFICEROPINIONSURVEY.**DATAADJUSTEDTOEXTRACTTHEEFFECTOFSTATISTICALBREAKIN2010.SOURCE:FEDERALRESERVE.BCResearch%TnUS$%50TnUS$ESTIMATEDUSEXCESSHOUSEHOLDSAVINGSLINEARPROJECTIONOFPRE-LEVELOFSAVINGS*500%TnUS$%50TnUS$ESTIMATEDUSEXCESSHOUSEHOLDSAVINGSLINEARPROJECTIONOFPRE-LEVELOFSAVINGS*500BALANCEBALANCE*SOURCE:"DATAREVISIONSANDPANDEMIC-ERAEXCESSSAVINGS",H.ABDELRAHMANANDL.OLIVEIRA,FEDERALRESERVEBANKOFSANFRANCISCO,NOVEMBER8,2023.**SOURCE:BCACALCULATIONS.ASSUMES4%COUNTERFACTUALGROWTHINDISPOSABLEINCOMEFROMPRE-PANDEMICLEVELAND55USTOTALCMBSDELINQUENCIES* BYCONSUMERLOANTYPE*SOURCE:TREPPLLCANDMOODY'SINVESTORSSERVICE.**SHOWNASA4-QUARTERMOVINGTOTAL.SOURCE:FEDERALRESERVEBANKOFNEWYORK.NOTE:SHADEDAREASDENOTENBER-DESIGNATEDRECESSIONS.*DOMESTICCHARTEREDCOMMERCIALBANKS.SOURCE:FEDERALRESERVE.NOTE:SHADEDAREASDENOTENBER-DESIGNATEDRECESSIONS.BnUS$0-200-400-600BnUS$0-200-400-60024%76%32%68%RESIDENTIALSMALLBANKSSOURCE:FEDERALRESERVE.USUNREALIZEDGAINS/LOSSESONINVESTMENTSECURITIESAVAILABLE-FOR-SALESECURITIESHELD-TO-MATURITYSECURITIESQ12008Q12010Q12012Q12014Q12016Q12018Q12020Q12022SOURCE:FEDERALDEPOSITINSURANCECORPORANOTE:INSUREDCALLREPORTFILERSONLY.UNREALIZEDLOSSESONSECURITIESSOLELYREFLECTTHEDIFFERENCEBETWEENTHEMARKETVALUEASOFQUARTERENDANDTHEBOOKVALUEOFNON-EQUITYSECURITIES.BCResearchBC增長了15.5%，但2023年10月的個(gè)人消費(fèi)支出平減指數(shù)僅比2008年底以來每年穩(wěn)定增9080為出現(xiàn)這種結(jié)果的概率為20%。9080約聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的供應(yīng)鏈壓力指數(shù)已降至歷史低點(diǎn)的核心商品通脹將保持低迷。909080領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者比例從第二季度的16.1%降至第三季度的12.7%。+0.6%trend trendBCαResearch2023*EXCLUDINGFOODANDENERGY.90809080個(gè)人消費(fèi)支出平均月環(huán)比必須達(dá)到0.5%，BCResearch%GLOBALSUPPLYCHAINPRESSUREINDEX*42321100 ANNUALIZED%GLOBALSUPPLYCHAINPRESSUREINDEX*42321100 ANNUALIZEDChg580%648642200*SOURCE:FEDERALRESERVEBANKOFNEWYORK.USMONTHLYPERCENTCHANGE:ZILLOWRENTPRICE*APARTMENTLISTSHELTERSHELTERCPI*SERIESSHOWNSEASONALLYADJUSTED.SOURCE:ZILLOW.%210Chg86420**SERIESSHOWNSEASONALLYADJUSTED.SOURCE:APARTMENTLIST.***SOURCE:BUREAUOFLABORSTATISTICS/FEDERALRESERVEBANKOFCLEVELAND.%Chg6WAGEGROWTHTRACKER**(R37265154043322 %%Chg6WAGEGROWTHTRACKER**(R60405403%Chg6WAGEGROWTHTRACKER**(R37265154043322 %%Chg6WAGEGROWTHTRACKER**(R604054032 WAGEGROWTHTRACKER**(R%Chg6Chg58463422*SHOWNADVANCEDBY9MONTHS.SOURCE:BLS.HOURLYDATA,OVERALLUNWEIGHTEDSERIES.USUSWAGEGROWTHTRACKER**(RCONSUMERCONSUMERCONFIDENCE:APPRAISALOFPRESENTSITUATION:JOBSPLENTIFULMINUSWAGEGROWTHTRACKER**(RWAGEGROWTHTRACKER**(RChg7654321Chg8765432Chg76543*SHOWNADVANCEDBY6MONTHS.CALCULATIONSBASEDON10MANUFACTURINGANDSERVICESURVEYMEASURESOFCURRENTANDFUTUREWAGESFROMTHENEWYORKFED,DALLASFED,***SHOWNADVANCEDBY14MONTHS.SOURCE:BLS.SPIKESINTHEREPORTEDHIRINGRATEINMAYA***SHOWNADVANCEDBY14MONTHS.SOURCE:BLS.SPIKESINTHEREPORTEDHIRINGRATEINMAYANOTE:HISTORICALJOBOPENINGSDATAISEXTENDEDUSINGTHECOMPOSITEHELP-WANTEDINDEXESTIMATEDINREGISBARNICHON,"BUILDINGACOMPOSITEHELP-WANTEDINDEX",ECONOMICSLETTERSVOLUME109,ISSUE3,(DECEMBER2010).JOBOPENINGSSINCEJUNE2022ISBASEDONBLSJOLTSJOBOPENINGSANDESTIMATESUSINGINDEEDJOBPOSTINGSINDEX.HOURLYDATA,OVERALLUNWEIGHTEDSERIES.***SHOWNADVANCEDBY9MONTHS.SOURCE:THECONFERENCEBOARD.SOURCE:INDEED.YearsUSTOTALUSTOTAL(LS)Highestsince1947304050607080902000102030*SHOWNSMOOTHEDEXCEPTFORLATESTDATAPOINT.SOURCE:USCENSUSBUREAU.%864Years**CURRENT-COSTAVERAGEAGEPRIVATERESIDENTIALFIXEDASSETS.SOURCE:BUREAUOFECONOMICANALYSIS(BEA).這次單戶住宅不會(huì)出現(xiàn)過剩……6860USUSCREDITCARDDEBT(RS)f7654321SOURCE:FEDERALRESERVEBANKOFNEWYORK.NOTE:SERIESSHOWNASAPERCENTOFGDP.SHADEDAREASDENOTENBER-DESIGNATEDRECESSIONS.1947年以來的最高水平。務(wù)占GDP的比例接近本世紀(jì)初的水平，比已從占GDP的5%降至1.3%。800700864600%8641401201008060800700864600%8641401201008060800700600USFICOUSFICOSCOREFORNE25THPERCENTILE10THPERCENTILE*WHERE10%OFNEWLYORIGINATEDMORTGAGESARETOBORROWERSWITHCREDITSCORESUNDERTHE10THPERCENTILE,ANDAQUARTEROFNEWLYORIGINATEDMORTGAGESARETOBORROWERSWITHCREDITSCORESUNDERTHE25THPERCENTILE.BnUS$SOURCE:FEDERALRESERVEBANKOFNEWBnUS$NOTE:DASHEDLINESREPRESENTTHEAVERAGEFICOSCOREFORTHEFOLLOWINGTIMEPERIODS:2000TO2008AND2009TOQ32023.504030302020USUS EFFECTIVERATEOFINTERESTON809020001020*SOURCE:BUREAUOFECONOMICANALYSIS(BEA).USREALCORECAPITALGOODSORDERS*(LS) MANUFACTURINGCAPACITY**(RS)70809020001020*MANUFACTURINGNONDEFENSECAPITALGOODSEXCLUDINGAIRCRAFT.DEFLATEDBYPPIFORPRIVATECAPITALEQUIPMENT.SHOWNIN**SOURCE:FEDERALRESERVE.NENTT5NENTT5USUSINVENTORIES-TO-GDP55*SERIESREBASEDTODECEMBER2019=100.**INSTITUTEFORSUPPLYMANAGEMENT.雖然企業(yè)債務(wù)相對(duì)于GDP有所上升，但其他US NNRO-ASSETSORATESECTORTLEVERAGE*AFTERNETINTERESTEXPENSEADJUSTME*ESTT*TOTALDEBTLESSNETWORKINGCAPITAL(EXCLUDINGINVENTORIES)DIVIDEDBYBCANETINTERESTADJUSTEDEBITD(PLEASESEELASTFOOTNOTE).**EBITDDIVIDEDBYINTERESTEXPENSE.***BCACALCULATIONS,ADJUSTEDTOCORRECTFORINACCURATEDATAONINTERESTEXPENSE.FORFURTHERDETAILS,PLEASESEE'AREHIGHERINTERESTRATESHURTINGCORPORATEBALANCESHEETS?'USBONDSTRATEGY,SEPTEMBER18,2023.NOTE:SHADEDAREASDENOTENBER-DESIGNATEDRECESSIONS.GDP，有助于緩解債務(wù)與GDP之比的上升USPRIMARYBUDGETBALANCEJUNE2023CBOPROJECTIONJULY2022CBOPROJECTIONMARCH2021CBOPROJECTIONf2020202520302035204020452050200180160140120100FEDERALDEBTHELDBYFEDERALDEBTHELDBYTHEPUBLICJUNE2023CBOPROJECTIONJULY2022CBOPROJECTIONMARCH2021CBOPROJECTIONf2001801601401201002020202520302035204020452050JULY2022,ANDJUNE2023)導(dǎo)致潛在GDP水平下降。20806040-60EXPECTATIONSEUROAREA EUROAREA8060400-60*ZEWLEIBNIZCENTREFOREUROPEANECONOMICRESEARCH.**ROLLING3-MONTHSTANDARDDEVIATIONOFDATASURPRISSOURCE:CITIGROUPGLOBALMARKETSINC.ZEW的最新調(diào)查顯示，投資者信心在11月0SWEDEN**SOURCE:SWEDBANKANDSILF.**SOURCE:S&PGLOBAL.NOTE:BOTHSERIESSHOWNASA3-MONTHMOVINGAVERAGE.歷史上看，瑞典PMI一直是歐元區(qū)整體PMI6040%Chg40*INUSDOLLARTERMS.SHOWNSMOOTHEDEXCEPTFOR6040%Chg40*INUSDOLLARTERMS.SHOWNSMOOTHEDEXCEPTFORLATEST**SOURCE:S&PGLOBAL.歐洲通脹走低將帶來幫助……年夏季的4.1%降至0.7%。我們的領(lǐng)先Chg84060400Chg0Chg0400Chg50Chg50EUROAREAHEADLINECPI(LS) BUSINESSSELLINGPRICE0Chg08IFOBUSINESSSURVEY8EXPECTATIONSFOR6420 EUROAREA *SHOWNADVANCEDBY6MONTHS.SOURCE:EUROPEANCOMMISSIONSURVEY.**SHOWNADVANCEDBY4MONTHS.EXPECTATIONSINTHENEXTTHREEMONTHS.AVERAGEOFWHOLESALEANDRETAILTRADE,MANUFACTURING,SERVICES,ANDCONSTRUCTION.SOURCE:IFOINSTITUTE.****INPUTPRICES,MATERIALS,ANDFUELPURCHASED,ALLMANUFACTUREDPRODUCTS.SHOWNADVANCEDBY5MONTHS.了30%。刺激消費(fèi)。德國憲法法院11月15日決定阻止剩余90Chg40Tn0 NEWREGISTRATIONSOFPASSENGERCARS**EUROEUROAREAEUROEUROAREACUMULATEDEXCESSSAVINGSRELATIVE90Chg40Tn0*INCLUDESGERMANY,FRANCE,ITALY,SPAIN,ANDTHENETHERLANDS.**SHOWNASA12-MONTHMOVINGAVERAGE.SOURAUTOMOBILEMANUFACTURERS'ASSOCIATION.***DEFLATEDBYHEADLINECTnChg50TnChg50TnChg50TnChg50ChgEUROAREAREALEUROAREAREALGDP(LS)THEPRIVATESECTORASAPERCENTOF4-QUARTERMOVINGTOTALGDP.***ANNUALPERCENTCHANGEOF4-QUARTERMOVINGTOSOURCE:ECB.Chg840%840AGGREGATELOCALCENTRALAGGREGATEAGGREGATELOCALCENTRAL*INCLUDESGOVERNMENTBUDGETARYSPENDINGANDGOVERNMENTNOTE:ALLSERIESSHOWNASA12-MONTHMOVINGTOTAL.地方政府發(fā)行更多債務(wù)，以實(shí)現(xiàn)2024年5%的增長目標(biāo)。US$Chg80600US$Chg80600US$8060*SHOWNASA4-QUARTERMOVINGAVERAGE.2008080比2021年的峰值下降了40%。新屋開工率下Despitefallingmortgagerates,thestockofmortgagedebtisshrinkingWEIGHTEDAVERAGESTARTEDSOLD*SOURCE:PBoC.SQUAREMETERSANDASA12-MONTHMOVChg0%20080AVERAGEGROSSPRIMEYIELD800800600600400400WORKING-AGE*POPULATIONPROJECTIONSAVERAGEGROSSPRIMEYIELD800800600600400400WORKING-AGE*POPULATIONPROJECTIONS6080200020406080*ESTIMATEDPOPULATIONBETWEEN15-AND-64YEARSOFAGE.SOURCE:UNPOPULATIONDIVISION.PRIMERENTALYIELDBYCITY:DECEMBER2022SOURCE:SAVILLSUK.BCResearchChg210Chg840Chg8642080Chg210Chg840Chg8642080續(xù)13個(gè)月下跌。第三季度GDP平減指數(shù)同比下降1.4%。出口價(jià)格較峰值下降了14%A.全球資產(chǎn)配置街策略師預(yù)計(jì)標(biāo)普500指數(shù)到2024年底將的宏觀基本面現(xiàn)在比12個(gè)月前更令人不Chg6420Chg210Chg840Chg8642080ChgCORE420COREPRODUCERPRICES**COREPRODUCERPRICES**GDPGDPDEFLATOR*SHOWNASA3-MONTHMOVINGAVERAGE.SOURCE:BCACALCULATIONS.**PURCHASINGPRICESOFENERGYANDRAWMATERIALS,EX-FACTORYPRICES.***INUSDTERMS.SOURCE:CPBNETHERLANDSBUREAUFORECONOMICPOLICYANALYSIS.SHOWNREBASEDTOJANUARY2010=100.%840%840PROJECTEDANNUALCHANGESOURCE:BLOOMBERGFINANCEL.P.現(xiàn)在，我們的MacroQuant2.0模型仍建0.5%50005000**500048004700470046254500450042003500SOURCE:YEAR-ENDTARGETSFROMBLOOMBERGFINA604060406040USBULLISHSENTIMENT:USBULLISHSENTIMENT:*SOURCE:AMERICANASSOCIATIONOFINDIVIDUALINVESTORS.60406040%6040**BULLISHCONSENSUSONS&P500STOCKS.SOURCE:MARKETVANE.NET.***SOURCE:INVESTORSINTELLIGENCE.將在2024年初發(fā)布關(guān)于該模型的白皮804004004001EQUITYBlackandgreendotsrepresentpreliminaryDecemberestimates-3.3%CASHCASH CUMULATIVEEXCESSRETURN**80400400400607080902000102030*BENCHMARKALLOCATIONISBASEDONA60/40PORTFOLIONOTE:THEAVERAGEEQUITYALLOCATIONINTHEBACKTESTIS60.1%.SOURCE:MACROQUANT2.0BETA(ASSETALLOCATION).-6-6B.股票從高點(diǎn)到低點(diǎn)仍下跌了近50%。前的動(dòng)態(tài)市盈率仍遠(yuǎn)高于2012年至2019年遠(yuǎn)高于2012年至2019年10.9%的平均水平S&P500TROUGH*(MONTHS)(MONTHS)S&P500-20%-80MacroQuant的板塊選擇模型在1-3個(gè)月的BCResearch%%HEALTHCARE889%9%%HEALTHCARE889%9%8UTILITIES8830 INDUSTRIALSINDUSTRIALS8888886%6%6%6%8CONSUMERDISCRETIONARY666444868CONSUMERSTAPLES777866666%%%%ENERGY888444888 *CALCULATEDASFORWARDEPS/SPS.SOURCE:REFINITIV/IBES.NOTE:DASHEDLINESREPRESENTTHEAVERAGEFROM2012TO2019.*CALCULATEDASFORWARDEPS/SPS.SOURCE:REFINITIV/IBES.NOTE:DASHEDLINESREPRESENTTHEAVERAGEFROM2012TO2019.ForwardPEForwardPEHypotheticalHypotheticalChangeInForward-30-20-101220202309259714235726943030152525288632471626943078346317286232713680183030346338961931993656411320336738484329+2028863463375240414329461849065484+30343937524065437746905003562859406253EstimateFrom264629103439370439684233449747625027Earnings02405264628863367360838484089432945704810CurrentLevels(%)NOTE:ASOFDEC.8,2023.SOURCE:REFINITIV/IBES.命期間發(fā)生的事情。這兩次革命的GDP增增長約為3%的趨勢(shì)，這將意味著100%的增長，或GDP每年翻一番。BC%0.5%0.0%-0.5%ResearchCONTRACTIONCONTRACTIONENTIREPERIODPERFORMANCEOFSTYLESDURINGSLOWDOWNANDCONTRACTIONSTAGESOFTHEBUSINESSCYCLE(1989-2021)SLOWDOWNSMALLGROWTHVALUECYCLICALSDEFENSIVESNOTE:CALCULATEDOVER1989TO2021.SOURCE:REFINITIVDATASTREAMANDBCACALCULATIO%76543%76543MAGNIFICENTSEVEN*REVENUEASAPERCENTOFGDP4-QUARTERTRAILINGQUARTERLYQUARTERLYVALUE*MAGNIFICENTSEVENINCLUDESAPPLE,AMAZON,ALPHABET,META,MICROSOFT,NVIDIA,ANDTESLA.雖然這種技術(shù)奇點(diǎn)可能在未來10到20年內(nèi)慮到它們占美國總市值的30%并且對(duì)應(yīng)31年代末英特爾在CPU市場的主導(dǎo)地位也是%%8060%%80608060MAGNIFICENTSEVEN*MARKETVAASAPERCENTOFS&P500MARKETVALUEACCOUNTEDFORBYTHETBYSIZE**MOSTRECENTVALUE3040506070809020001020*MAGNIFICENTSEVENINCLUDESAPPLE,AMAZON,ALPHABET,META,MICROSOFT,NVIDIA,ANDTESLA.**SOURCE:KENNETHR.FRENCHDATALIBRARYANDTHECENTERFORRESEARCHINSECURITYPRICES(CRSP).全消失。.09034.0904040404846STOCKPRICEINDEX**GLOBALEX.US/US(RS)FORALLPANELS20022000200220072008200920072008OCTNOVDECJANFEBMARAPRMAYJUN*SOURCE:INSTITUTEFORSUPPLYMANAGEMENT.**INUSDOLLARS.SOURCE:MSCIINC.(SEECOPYRIGHTDECLARATION).NOTE:SHADEDAREASDENOTENBER-DESIGNATEDRECESSIONS.%2008060400USUSVERSUSGLOBALEX.US(PERCENTCHANGEFROMJAN2008)FORWARDEPSFORWARDSPS%200806040SOURCE:REFINITIV/IBESANDMSCIINC.(SEECOPYRIGHTDECLARATION).12-MONTHPERCENT12-MONTHPERCENTCHANGEIN12-MONTHFORWARDEARNINGSVSGLOBAL(%)2050-10-20POLAND/.KOREA/.TURKEY.PHILIPPINES.INDIA.MEXICOKUWAITEUROAREA.UAESWEDEN.SWITZERLAND.USCANADA..BRAZIL.CHINA.INDONESIAQATARQATARJAPANTAIWAN.UKGAUSTRALIAMALAYSIA●SAUDIARABIA.SOUTHAFRICA-10-5051012-MONTHPERCENTCHANGEIN12-MONTHFORWARDSALESVSGLOBAL(%)SOURCE:REFINITIV/IBESANDMSCIINC.(SEECOPYRIC.固定收益13次25個(gè)基點(diǎn)的加息。我們?cè)?022年10月27日結(jié)束了這一交易建們調(diào)整了策略，通過TLTETF戰(zhàn)術(shù)性做多美我們?cè)?月底再次做多TLTETF。盡管開局BCResearchWORLDTRADEVOLUMEINDEXDIVIDEDBYINDUSTRIALPRODUCTIONINDEX*909520000510WORLDTRADEVOLUMEINDEXDIVIDEDBYINDUSTRIALPRODUCTIONINDEX*9095200005101520*SOURCE:CPBNETHERLANDSBUREAUFORECONOMICPOLICYANALYSIS.全球貿(mào)易已經(jīng)停滯了十多年，這證實(shí)了BCA0654321BlackandgreendotsrepresentpreliminaryDecemberestimates0.680.66CUMULATIVECUMULATIVEEXCESSRETURN*654321607080902000102030**BENCHMARKALLOCATIONISBASEDONAPORTFOLIOOF50%SOURCE:MACROQUANT2.0BETA(BONDBUDDY).國國債收益率將在2024年底或2025年初觸底至3%左右。MacroQuant的BondBuddy模型在3個(gè)月和12個(gè)月的期限內(nèi)仍然傾向于做多久期立BCResearch2020SHAREOFTOTALSHAREOFTOTALWEALTH%50403020WEALTHBYGENERATIONWEALTHBYGENERATIONANDAGE*BABYBOOMERSGENERATIONXMILLENNIALSBCResearch2023%50403020200825303540455055606570AGE*THEEVOLUTIONOFEACHGENERATION’SSHAREINTOTALWISSHOWNBYTHEMIDPOINTSOURCE:FEDERALRESERVE,FINANCIALACCOUNTSOFTHEUNITEDSTATES.要275萬億美元的實(shí)物資產(chǎn)額外支出。BCResearch%洲目前的政府債券收益率水平與它們的情%642642D.貨幣DEFAULTRATE*●SPBCMResearch2023%70809020001020*SOURCE:MOODY'SINVESTORSSERVICE.**BASEDONCURRENTHIGH-YIELDCORPORATEBONDSPREAD,DEFAULT-ADJUSTEDSPREADOF100BPs,ANDA40%RECOVERYRATE.NOTE:SHADEDAREASDENOTENBER-DESIGNATEDRECESSIONS.BCResearch60406040BPs500400300200BPs300200BPs8060405-YEARREAL**YIELD(LS)*TRADE-WEIGHTEDAVERAGEOFEUROAREA,JAPAN,UK,AUSTRALIA,ANDSWEDEN.**REALYIELDCALCULATEDASNOMINALYIELDMINUSCPISWAPRATEORUSINGBLOOMBERGINFLATION-LINKEDINDEXYIELD.***BROAD,NOMINAL.SOURCE:FEDERALRESERVE.****TRADE-WEIGHTEDAVERAGEOFEUROAREA,JAPAN,UK,AUSTRALIA,SWEDEN,ANDCANADA.Chg05*SOURCE:S&PGLOBAL.**BROAD,NOMINAL.SOURCE:FEDERALRESERVE.長確實(shí)加快了，第三季度GDP增長了5.2%。象。亞特蘭大聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的GDP模型顯示第四季度我們的MacroQuantCurrencyCruncher40CUMULATIVEEXCESSRETURN*RELATIVECUMULATIVEEXCESSRETURN*RELATIVETOBENCHMARKCURRENCYCRUNCHERMODEL:BlackdotrepresentspreliminaryDecemberestimate987654321SOURCE:MACROQUANT2.0BETA(CURRENCYCRUNCHER).%0 SUBSEQUENT10-YEARANNUALIZEDRETURN(RS)Thedollaris20%purchasingpowerpurchasingpowerparitybasis*SOURCE:ICEFUTURESUS.PLEASEREFERTOTHEFOREIGNEXCHANGESTRATEGYJANUARY20,2023SPECIALREPORTTITLED"CURRBCResearchGlobalFinancial(Aug15,2008-InitialStagesOf(Feb20,2020-GlobalFinancial(Aug15,2008-InitialStagesOf(Feb20,2020-Mar9,2020)80600USFORECAST*f0607080902000102030*BCAFORECASTSIMULATINGTHEIMPACTOFHIGHERGLOBALINTERESTRATESONUSNETEXTERNALINTERESTEXPENSESRELATEDTOPORTFOLIODEBTSECURITIES,WHILEHOLDINGCONSTANTTHECOMPOSITIONOFDEBTASSETSANDLIABILITIESIN80RELATIONTOGDPASWELLASALLOTHERCOMPONENTSOFTHE806060BCResearch6060USD/JPYUSD/JPYUSD/JPY(INVERTED)PPPFAIRVALUE*404000200200-60%-60%%JPY/USDSUBSEQUENT10-YEARANNUALIZEDRETURN(INVERTED,RS)Theyenis44%6060USD/JPYUSD/JPYUSD/JPY(INVERTED)PPPFAIRVALUE*404000200200-60%-60%%JPY/USDSUBSEQUENT10-YEARANNUALIZEDRETURN(INVERTED,RS)Theyenis44%808060600040405undervaluedagainstthe