牛津經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院-到2033年工業(yè)、珠寶和銀器行業(yè)的白銀制造需求驅(qū)動(dòng)因素（英）

FabricationdemanddriversforsilverFABRICATIONDEMANDDRIVERSFORSILVERINTHEINDUSTRIAL,JEWELRY,ANDSILVERWARESECTORSTHROUGH2033NOVEMBER2023FabricationdemanddriversforsilverABOUT

OXFORDECONOMICSOxfordEconomicswas

foundedin1981asacommercialventurewithOxfordUniversity’sbusinesscollegetoprovideeconomicforecastingandmodellingto

UKcompaniesandfinancialinstitutionsexpandingabroad.

Sincethen,wehavebecomeone

of

theworld’s

foremostindependentglobaladvisoryfirms,providingreports,forecastsandanalyticaltoolson

morethan200countries,100industries,and8,000citiesandregions.Ourbest-in-classglobaleconomicand

industrymodelsandanalyticaltoolsgiveusanunparalleled

abilitytoforecastexternalmarkettrendsand

assesstheireconomic,

socialandbusinessimpact.Headquartered

inOxford,

England,

with

regionalcentres

in

New

York,

London,

Frankfurt,

and

Singapore,Oxford

Economics

has

offices

across

the

globe

in

Belfast,Boston,Cape

Town,

Chicago,

Dubai,

Dublin,Hong

Kong,

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Angeles,

Mexico

City,Milan,

Paris,

Philadelphia,

Stockholm,

Sydney,

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and

Toronto.We

employ

600staff,

including

more

than

350professional

economists,

industryexperts,

andbusinesseditors—one

ofthe

largest

teams

of

macroeconomists

and

thought

leadership

specialists.Our

globalteamis

highly

skilled

ina

full

range

of

research

techniques

and

thought

leadership

capabilities

fromeconometric

modelling,

scenario

framing,and

economic

impact

analysis

to

market

surveys,case

studies,expert

panels,

and

web

analytics.OxfordEconomicsis

akeyadvisertocorporate,financialandgovernmentdecision-makersandthoughtleaders.Ourworldwideclientbasenowcomprisesover

2,000internationalorganisations,includingleadingmultinationalcompaniesandfinancialinstitutions;keygovernmentbodiesandtradeassociations;andtopuniversities,consultancies,andthinktanks.Disclaimerand

CopyrightThisreportisnottobeconstrued

asasolicitationoranoffertobuyorsellsilverorrelatedproducts,securities,orrelatedinvestments,andnordoesit

constituteadviceinrelationtothebuyingorsellingofthesame.Youmustobtainprofessionalorspecialistinvestment

advicebeforetaking,orrefrainingfrom,anyactionrelated

tothecontentofthispressrelease.Thisreportmaycontainforward-lookingstatementsthataresubject

torisksanduncertainties.Forward-lookingstatementsarebasedoninformationand

assumptionsthatthe

SilverInstituteandOxfordEconomicshadwhenthosestatementsweremadeortheirgoodfaithbeliefasofthattimewithrespecttofutureevents.Forward-lookingstatementsaresubjecttorisksanduncertaintiesthat

couldcauseactualperformance

orresultstodiffermateriallyfromthoseinorsuggestedby

theforward-lookingstatements.Exceptasrequiredbylaw,

theSilverInstituteandOxfordEconomicsundertakenoobligationtoupdatepubliclyanyforward-looking

statementsafter

thedateofthisreportortoconformthesestatementstoactualresults.Whileconsideration

hasbeentakeninpreparingtheinformationpublishedinthisreport,thecontentisprovidedwithout

anyguarantees,conditions,orwarrantiesas

toitsaccuracy,

completeness,orreliability.ThisreportispublishedbyandremainsthejointcopyrightoftheSilverInstituteandOxfordEconomics.It

ispublishedonlyforinformationalpurposes.FabricationdemanddriversforsilverAlldatashownintables

andcharts

areOxfordEconomics’owndata,exceptwhereotherwisestatedandcitedinfootnotes,

and

arecopyright?OxfordEconomicsLtd.Themodelling

andresultspresentedhereare

basedon

informationprovidedbythirdparties,uponwhichOxfordEconomicshas

reliedinproducingitsreport

andforecastsingoodfaith.

Anysubsequentrevisionorupdateofthosedatawillaffect

theassessmentsandprojectionsshown.Todiscussthereportfurtherpleasecontact:AndrewLogan:

alogan@OxfordEconomics4Millbank,LondonSW1P3JA,UKTel:+4420391080612FabricationdemanddriversforsilverTABLEOF

CONTENTSExecutivesummary41.Introduction52.Whyislongtermdemandforecastingimportant?

62.1Ourforecastingmethodology

62.2Challengeswiththemethodology83.Industrialsilver

103.1Electricalandelectronicsdemand

103.2Brazingalloysdemand

123.3Other

industrialdemand

143.4Totaldemandforindustrialsilver

154.Jewelry

165.Silverware

186.Conclusion

193FabricationdemanddriversforsilverEXECUTIVESUMMARYTheindustriesthatusesilverasanintermediateinput

areforecastto

experiencestrongoutputgrowthoverthenextdecade(2023to2033).Muchofthatoutputgrowthislikelytooccurin

Asia,andinparticularin

China.Thisreportinvestigatestheforecastsoftheoutput

growthofdifferentenduserindustriesofsilvertogaininsight

abouthowdemandforthemetalmaychangeoverthenext10years.Italsolooksatwherein

theglobethestrengthindemandforsilverinputsis

predictedtoarise.Themainpointsare:??Between2023and2033,we

forecastthe

globaloutputofendusersofindustrialsilverwillincreaseby

46%inrealterms.Thisreflectspredictionsofparticularlyrapidgrowthintheoutput

oftheelectricaland

electronicsapplications

industry,whichis

forecasttogrowby

55%overthedecade.Jewelryfabricators’outputis

forecasttoincreaseby34%inrealtermsbetween2023and2033.Atthecountrylevel,the

outputforecastssuggestthatIndiamaylosesomeofitsdominanceofsilverjewelrymanufacturingtoChinaoverthedecade.??Silverwarefabricators’outputisforecasttoincreaseby

30%overthenextdecade.Some43%ofthegrowthin

outputbetween2023and2033isforecasttooccurinIndia,althoughthisislessthanthecountry’s73%shareof

themarketin

2022.Combined,

the

outputofindustrial,jewelryandsilverwarefabricatorsisforecasttoincreaseby42%between2023and2033.Thisisroughlydoubletherateofgrowthoftheirdemandforsilveroverthepreviousdecade.4Fabricationdemanddriversforsilver1.INTRODUCTIONThispaperlooksathowdemandforsilverasa

manufacturinginputislikelytoevolveoverthe

nextdecade(2023to2033).Itdoesso

bylookingathowtheoutputoftheindustriesthatusesilverasaninputinto

theirproductionprocessisforecasttogrowaroundtheglobe.Theforecastsarepresentedforthekeyconsumingsectorsofsilver

(industrial,jewelry,andsilverware).Thepaperalsoinvestigateswheredemandforsilverasanintermediateinputisforecasttogrowmostrapidlyaroundtheglobeoverthe

nextdecade.Usingpredictionsoftheoutputgrowthofkey

consuming

sectorsbycountry,weanalyzetheextenttowhichdemandforsilverasaninputintoproductionisshiftingeasttowards

China

andthe

rest

oftheAsiaPacificregion.Thepaper

alsodetailswhy

demandforecastingforsilver

asaninputintoindustrialprocessesisimportant.Additionally,we

explainourmethodologyanditsdrawbacks.Lastly,we

reviewhowsilver

consumingindustries’outputis

forecasttochangeoverthe

nextdecade,bothbygeographyandendusingindustry.

Lastly,thepaperconcludeswiththemainpoints.5Fabricationdemanddriversforsilver2.WHYISLONGTERMDEMANDFORECASTINGIMPORTANT?Long-termdemandforecastinghelpsanyindustrymakebetterinformedsupplydecisionsandresourceallocationdecisions.It

isparticularlyimportantforanextractionindustrylikesilverduetothetimelagsand

expenseincurredbetweenprospectingandreceivingrevenueforanyrefinedsilverproduced.Undertakingtheinitialgeologicalsurveystoestablishtheexistenceofdeposits,

applyingforplanningpermissionandmeetingenvironmentalregulations,buildingthemineandassociatedinfrastructuretotransport

theore

forcrushingandsmelting,andrefinement

alltaketimeandincurmajorinvestmentcosts.Anyinvestmentdecisionorentryintothemarketis

mademorecomplexasthepriceofsilverisvolatile.Inthelastdecade(2013to2022)theLondonBullionMarketAssociationdailypriceofsilverhasrangedfrom$12.01to$32.23(troy/oz),aroundameanaverageof

$19.19.Theprofitabilityofanylong-terminvestmentwillvarymarkedlydependingonthepriceofsilverwhenthefacilityisoperational.Thecomplexityanduncertaintysurroundinginvestmentdecisions

aboutsilverprojectsisincreasedasmostsilveris

producedasaby-productofminestargetingothermetals.In2022,72%ofminedsilverproduction

camefrommineswhichproducedlead,zinc,copper,andgold.1Thegeographicallocation

ofdemandisalsoimportantasitshapesinvestmentdecisionsaboutshippingandlogistics.MostofthemajorproducingcountriesarelocatedinNorth,

Central,

andSouthAmerica,whilstincreasinglymostoftheendusermanufacturersarebasedinAsia.Thiscreatesarequirementforthesecuretransportationand

warehousingofthesilverfordeliverytoend

usecustomers.Geographicalforecastsofwheredemandis

likelytogrowmostrapidlyalsooffersinsightfordecisionsaboutthelocationofmarketingandsalesoffices,

sotheyareincloseproximityto

existingandprospectivecustomers.2.1

OURFORECASTING

METHODOLOGYToconstructtheglobalforecastsoftheindicatorofdemandforsilverasanintermediateinputinaggregateandforitsdifferentenduserindustries,we

useweightedforecastsofcustomerindustries’outputin

eachcountry.Theweightsweusearetheconsumptionof

silverforeach

endusebythedifferentcountriesin2022inmillionouncessourcedfromtheWorldSilverSurvey2023.2Theforecastsofthedifferentenduserindustries’outputaresourcedfromOxfordEconomics’GlobalIndustry

Model.3

Thisidentifiesand

mapsthesupply

chainlinkagesbetweeneconomicsectorswithincountries

andacross

regionsand1

TheSilverInstitute.2023.WorldSilverSurvey2023.Page31.2

TheSilverInstitute.2023.WorldSilverSurvey2023.

Pages45,46,47,

55,and61.3

Oxford

Economics'

Global

Industry

Service6Fabricationdemanddriversforsilverconnectsthemtothemacroeconomicdriversofdemand(consumerspending,investment,

andgovernmentexpenditures,

etc).The

modelrunsoffOxfordEconomics’latestmacroeconomicforecaststogenerateprojectionsbyindustry.TheGlobalIndustryModelforecastsgrossoutput,grossvalueadded,investment,andprofitsonbothanominalandrealbasisforover100industrialsectorsacross77countries.4

Weusetheforecastsofgrossoutputinrealtermsinthebeliefthishasthestrongestrelationshipwiththevolumeofinputspurchased,in

particular,thequantityofsilverused.

Ouranalysisis

underpinned

bytheassumptionthattheratioofinputsto

outputis

constantoverthe

decade(2023-33).Thismeansthattheamountofsilverinputperunitofoutputremainsunchanged.Theindustriesselected

asthekeyconsumingindustriesofsilverarethosethatdiscussedinthe

WorldSilverSurvey2023,and

theSilverInstitute’sotherpublicationssuchasindividualmarketreports.5

Theindustries(withtheirNACEcodes)

wehavematchedto

each

typeofsilveruse

aredetailedin

Table1.6Table1:Enduserindustriesofsilverand

theindustries’outputforecastswe

haveusedUseofsilverIndustriesoutputusedtoforecastNACEcode26.126.226.326.427ElectricalandManufactureofelectroniccomponentsandboardselectronicsdemand

ManufactureofcomputersandperipheralequipmentManufactureofcommunicationequipmentManufactureofconsumer

electronicsManufactureofelectricalequipmentManufactureofothergeneral-purposemachinery28.224.124.2BrazingalloysdemandManufactureofbasicironandsteelandof

ferro-alloysManufactureoftubes,pipes,hollowprofilesandrelatedfittings,ofsteelManufactureofotherproductsoffirstprocessingofsteelManufactureoffabricatedmetalproducts,

exceptmachinery

andequipment24.325ManufactureofelectroniccomponentsandboardsManufactureofgeneral-purposemachineryManufactureofothergeneral-purposemachineryManufactureofmotorvehicles26.128.128.229.1OtherindustrialSilverwareJewelryManufacturingminusall

sectorslisted

aboveforelectricalandelectronicsandbrazingalloysdemandManufactureoffabricatedmetalproducts,

exceptmachinery

andequipment2532Othermanufacturing4

Onanominalbasisincludestheimpactofpricechangesontheindicatorconcerned.Realexcludesthe

impactofpricechanges,soisabettermeasureofvolumechanges.5

Forexample,PreciousMetalsCommoditiesManagement

LLC.2022.Silver

in

Brazing

and

Solder

Alloy

Materials.

TheSilverInstituteMarketTrendReport.and

MetalsFocus.2021.Silver's

Growing

Role

in

the

Automotive

Industry.

TheSilverInstituteMarketTrendReport..6

NomenclatureofEconomicActivities(orNACE)codesareastandardclassificationsystemofindustriesusedbynationalstatisticalofficestoclassifybusinessactivities.7Fabricationdemanddriversforsilver2.2

CHALLENGES

WITHTHEMETHODOLOGYOurmethodologyisnotwithoutits

challenges.Tobeinformativeaboutthedemandforsilver,itassumesthattheexistingcustomerindustries’outputis

madewithfixedtechnology.Putmoresimply,the

ratioofsilverinputin

eachunitofcustomerindustries’output

isheld

constant.This

maynotholdtrueif

customerindustriessubstituteinanothermaterialinsteadofsilver,oralternativelychangetheirtechnologyrequiring

otherinputsinsteadofsilver.

Box1discussesthepracticeofthrifting,when

manufacturerstrytoreducethesilvercontentincludedintheirproductstoreducecosts.Itislimitedinthe

extenttowhichit

can

capturetheemergenceof

newindustriesthatrequiresilver

asaninput,orexistingcustomerindustriestofinddifferentusesforsilverastheydeveloptheirproductrange.Thisreflectsitsrelianceonexistingstatisticaldefinitionsofindustries.Morepragmatically,ourchoiceofcustomerindustrytomatchtoeachusetypeofsilvermaybetoobroad.OxfordEconomics’GlobalIndustrialModelforecasts100sectors,butthe

oneschosenmaybetooaggregatedto

fullyreflectthe

segmentoftheindustrythatuses

silver.

Ifso,theforecastforoutputmaybeinaccurate.Ourforecastofenduserdemandforsilverbasedonoutputgrowthare

likelytobemoreaccuratethelessstructuralchangeoccurs

atsilverfabricators.Thisdependsonthematurityofthetechnologytheyuse(andhencetheextentofthrifting)andanyinnovationthatleadstonewusesofsilver.Thetwowillhaveoffsettingimpacts,whicharelikelyto

varyovertime.

Ifthriftingdominates,ourforecastsarebestregardedasupperbounds.BOX1:THRIFTINGSilverisanexpensivecommoditytopurchase(likeotherpreciousmetals).Manufacturersthatusesilverasaninputtypicallytryto

reducetheamounttheyuseintheirproductsinordertoreducecosts

andraiseprofitability.Thisprocessiscalled“thrifting”.Itis

typicallyachieved

through

avarietyofinnovations,suchasusingthinnerlayers,substitutingcheapercommodities

forsilver,ortheminiaturizationofcomponentsandsubcomponents.Therateatwhichthriftingoccurs

inmanufacturingproductionprocessestypicallychangesas

theymature.Whenaproductisfirstintroducedintothemarket,manufacturerstypicallywanttomakesureitworks,so

arepreparedtouse

thebestmaterialsavailable.Butovertime,thefirmthatinventedtheproduct,oritscompetitorswhoseektoreplicateit

andundercutthefirstfirm’sprices,seektolowertheircostsbyreducingtheamountofsilverinputstheyuse.Thistypicallyoccursrelativelyrapidlyafteraproducthasbeenintroducedtothemarket.Astimeprogresses,theprocessslowsastheeasierorlargercostsavingopportunitieshave8Fabricationdemanddriversforsilveralreadybeentakenandthereareprogressivelyloweramountsofsilverlefttoreduceorsubstitutewithalternativecheaper

commodities.Theopportunityforthriftingalsodependsonwhichproductisbeingmadeandtheindustrialprocessesmanufacturersusetomakeit.Sotheextentofthrifting,orthepace

atwhichitis

undertakenisnotuniformacrossthedifferentindustrialusesofsilver.Manufacturershaveanincentivetokeeptheirproductionprocesses

confidential.ThisistopreventtheircompetitorsimitatingthemorstealinganyinnovationstheymakeresultingfromexpenditureonR&D.Thisis

likelytobeparticularlytruewhenaproductisnew,orisyoung

andevolvingasdifferentfirmstrytoimproveit.Asaresult,therearen’tthatmanyestimatesoftheextentofthethriftingofsilverinindustrialprocessesin

thepublicdomain.However,we

havebeenabletofindsomeestimates.

CRU(2020)

investigatedtheamountof

silverused

inphotovoltaiccellsusedinsolarpanels.

Theyfindtheamountofsilverusedfell

significantly7between2009and2019.Thefocusofthispaperisforecastingfabricators’demandforsilveroverthe

nextdecade.Asdiscussedabove,therateofthriftingislikelytovaryaccordingtothematurityoftheproductionprocessandahostofother

factors.Aswe

haveinsufficientinformationtoforecastthriftingratesoverthenextdecade,we

havechosentosuggestourforecastsareregardedasupper

boundsfordemandgrowthforsilverbasedonforecastsofenduseroutputgrowth.7

CRUConsulting.2020Silver’s

important

role

in

solar

power.TheSilverInstituteMarketTrendReport9Fabricationdemanddriversforsilver3.INDUSTRIALSILVERToinvestigatehowthetotaldemandforindustrialsilvermayevolveoverthe

nextdecade(2023to2033),we

havesplitusageintothethreeindustrialusespublishedintheWorldSilverSurvey2023.Thispublicationdisaggregatesindustrialdemandforsilverintothatusedbytheelectricalorelectronicsindustry,used

asbrazingalloystojointwopiecesofmetal,andother(as

acatchallcategory).Thisisusefulfortworeasons.First,the

disaggregationmakesitis

easiertoalignthefirsttwocategoriestotheenduserindustries

forwhichwe

haveoutputforecasts.Second,bydetailingtheweightofsilverused(inmillionounces)bythemajorcountrieswherethedifferenttypesofendusersare

located,we

canselectthe

relevantcountries’industry’soutput

growthforecasts.3.1

ELECTRICALANDELECTRONICSDEMANDManufacturersofelectronicsandelectricalapplications

arethemajorpurchasersofindustrialsilver.In2022,these

industriesconsumed371.5millionounces.8

Thisequatesto67%ofthesilver

usedforindustrialpurposesinthat

year.Wecangetsomeinsightintohowtheelectronicsand

electricalapplicationmanufacturers’demandforsilverwilldevelopbyweightingtogetherourforecastsofthethreemajorconstituentindustries’outputineachcountrybythatnation’sshareofsilverusedin2022.

Thethreeindustriesoutput

whichwe

useasaproxyforelectricalandelectronicsdemandforsilveraremanufactureofcomputersandperipheralequipment,electricalengineering;andother

general-purposemachinery.Theelectricalengineeringsectorproducesmanyofswitches,relays,connectors,breakers

andfusesusedby

electricvehicles.Thesamesectorproducesphotovoltaicpanelsusedin

solarpowergeneration.The

recentgrowthinbothhavestimulatedthedemandforsilverasdiscussedin

greaterdetailin

otherreportsbyTheSilverInstitute.

,9

10Overthenextdecade,we

forecasttheglobaloutputoftheelectronicsandelectricalapplicationsindustrywillgrowby55%.Thisisanannualaveragegrowthrateof4.5%.Thepace

ofgrowthisexpected

tobefasterinthe

firstfiveyears(2023-28)comparedtothesecond(2028-33),atan

averageof5.4%versus3.5%ayear.Themajorityoftheoutput

growthofthethreeindustries

overthe

nextdecadeisforecasttooccurinChina.The

countryisforecasttohavea65%shareofthegrowthinglobal

electronicsandelectronicapplicationsoutputbetween2023and2033.ItisfollowedbySouthKorea(5%),

andthe

UnitedStatesandJapanbothat3%(Fig.1).8

SilverInstitute.2023.WorldSilverSurvey2023.

Page45.9

MetalsFocus.2021.Silver's

growing

role

in

the

automotive

industry.TheSilverInstituteMarketTrendReport.10

CRUConsulting.2020.Silver's

important

role

in

solar

power.TheSilverInstituteMarketTrendReport.10FabricationdemanddriversforsilverBy2033,weforecast60%of

thethreeenduserindustries’productionwillbelocatedinChina.

SouthKoreaandJapanare

bothpredictedtohavea5%shareeach.Fig.1:Forecastsofselectedcountries’marketshare

ofelectronicsand

electricalapplicationsoutputin2023and

2033Shareof

consumingindustries'output

growthbetween2023-33%Marketshareofconsumingindustries'outputin

2023706050403020100656023205553433212ChinaSouthKoreaUnitedStatesJapanIndiaGermanyOthercountriesSource:

Oxford

EconomicsTheoutputofthethreeend

usercustomerindustriesareforecast

togrowatdifferentspeeds.Themostrapidgrowthinoutputispredictedtooccurintheproductionofcomputersandofficeequipment.Theoutputofthemanufacturersoftheseproductsisforecasttoincreaseby62%between2023and2033,anannual

averagegrowthrateof4.5%.Theoutputofelectricalengineeringproducts(includinglightandheavy-dutyswitchers,mobilephones,

computers,andotherproductsinwhich

silveris

aninput)isforecasttoincreaseby51%overthedecade,oranaverageannualgrowthrateof3.8%.Theoutputoftheothergeneral-purposemachineryindustrywhichproducesphotovoltaicpanelsisexpectedtogrowtheslowestby45%overthedecade.11FabricationdemanddriversforsilverFig.2.Forecastgrowthinmanufacturersofelectronics&electricalapplicationsoutput,2023-2033%70605040623020100555145Computers&officeequipmentElectricalengineeringManufactureofothergeneral-purposemachineryTotalSource:

Oxford

Economics3.2

BRAZINGALLOYSDEMANDTheWorldSilverSurvey2023estimatesthat49million

ouncesofsilverwereusedasbrazingalloysin2022.Thisconstitutes9%ofglobalindustrialdemandforsilver.Themajorendusingcountriesforsilverasabrazingalloy

in2022wereChina,whichused39.8%oftotal,the

UnitedStatesat13.9%,

andGermanyat10.2%.11Toinvestigatehowdemandforsilverasabrazingalloyislikelyto

evolveoverthenextdecade,we

useforecastsoftheoutputoffivemajorend

userindustries.Thesearethemanufacturingofmotorvehicles,electroniccomponentsandboards,generalpurposemachinery,

ironandsteel,

andstructuralmetalproducts.Asbefore,the

differentindustries’

combinedoutputisweightedtogetherusing

eachcountry’sshareofsilverusedasabrazingalloyorsolderin2022.Totaloutputofallthe

majorindustriesthatusesilverbrazingandsolderalloysisforecasttoincreaseby

34%between2023and2033.Thisequatestoanannualaveragegrowthrateof3.0%.Thepaceofgrowthisforecasttobefasterinthe

firstfiveyearsbetween2023and2028(3.6%)thaninthosethatfollowbetween2028and2033(2.3%).Between2023and2033,41%ofthegrowthinthefiveconsumingindustries’outputisforecasttooccurin

China(Fig.3).India

andSouthKorea

arepredictedtohavethesecondandthirdlargestshareofthefiveindustries’outputgrowthoverthedecadeat10%and7%,

respectively.Thisinpartreflectsthegrowthintheproductionofsemiconductors,which

areprimarilylocatedin

China,butalsoinsomeAsiancountriesingeneral.11

SilverInstitute.2033.WorldSilverSurvey2023.

Page47.12FabricationdemanddriversforsilverFig.3:Forecastshareofgrowthinoutputbetween2023and

2033ofindustriesusing

silverasabrazing

alloyorsolderShareof

consumingindustries'output

growthbetween2023-33%Marketshareofconsumingindustries'outputin

203345404140353730252015105331087275640ChinaIndiaSouthKorea

UnitedStates

GermanyOthercountriesSource:

Oxford

EconomicsBy2033,theforecastssuggestChinawillproduce

40%

ofalltheoutputofthefiveindustriesthatuse

silverasabrazingalloyorsolder.The

USisforecasttohavethesecondlargestshareat8%,

followedbySouth

Korea

at6%andIndiaat

5%.Between2023and2033,the

outputofelectroniccomponentsandboardsmanufacturersisforecastto

makethelargestcontributiontothefiveenduserindustries’outputgrowth.Thisindustry,whichuses

silverasabrazingalloy

toproduceprintedcircuitboardsandsomesemiconductors,isexpectedtocontribute55%ofthegrowthinoutputofthefivesectors.MuchofthatoutputgrowthispredictedtooccurinChinaandSouth

Korea.Fig.4:Shareinglobaloutputgrowthofindustriesusing

silverasabrazing

alloybetween2023-33%605040305520241010840Electroniccomponents&boardsGeneralpurposemachineryStructuralmetal

Motorvehicles

IronandsteelproductsSource:

Oxford

Economics13Fabricationdemanddriversforsilver3.3

OTHERINDUSTRIALDEMANDWorldSilver

Survey2023suggeststhat24%oftheindustrialdemandforsilverasaninput(or136millionounces)wasusedforotherpurposesin2022.12Giventhisislikelytocover

awiderangeofdifferentindustrialactivitiesnotclassifiedaselectrical/electronicsorbrazingalloys,wehaveusedforecastsofthegrossoutputofallmanufacturingindustry

excludingthosethatpurchasesilverforelectrical/electronicsandbrazingalloys.Wehaveweightedtheseforecastsby

eachendusercountry’sconsumptionofsilver(intons)used

forindustrialpurposes