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CHAPTER14
INDUSTRYANALYSIS
AnswerstoOuestions
1.Theresultsofempiricalstudiesconcludedthattherearesubstantialdifferencesin
absoluteorrelativeperformanceamongindustriesduringanygiventimeperiod.In
addition,industryperformancedifferencesarefoundinalternativetimeperiodswherethe
timeperiodsmayvaryinlength.Therefore,theinvestormustexaminealternative
industriesafterhehasforecastedmarketmovementsbecauseofthewidedispersionof
industryperformancearoundtheexpectedmarketperformance.
2.Studiesshowthatrelativeindustryperformanceisinconsistentovertime.When
industriesarerankedoversuccessivetimeperiods,thereislittlecorrelationinthe
rankings.Thisresultholdsfordifferenttypesofmarketsandforalternativelengthtime
periods.Thesefindingsimplythatsimpleextrapolationofpastperformanceisnotuseful
byitself.Therefore,theanalystmustputadditionaleffortintohisindustryanalysisby
projectingindustryperformancebaseduponfutureexpectationsofindustryconditions.
Thisobviouslymakesindustryanalysismoredemanding.
3.Agreateremphasismustbeplaceduponindustryanalysiswhentheperformancesofthe
individualfirmsclusterabouttheindustryperformance.Incontrast,oncetheindustry
performanceisestimated,theneedforindividualfirmanalysisisreducedsincethese
resultsimplythatallthefirmswillbehavesimilartotheindustry.
4.Disagree.Althoughstudieshaveshownasignificantdispersionofindividualfirm
performancewithinagivenindustry,theyalsofoundthattheindustrycomponentcould
partiallyexplainindividualfirmperformance.Althoughthestrengthoftheindustry
componentvariesamongindustries,industryanalysisisanimportantstepbefore
proceedingtothecompanyanalysis.Theimportantimplicationisthatindividual
companyanalysiswouldberelativelymoreimportantforindustrieswhereindividual
companyreturnsarewidelydispersed.Thepointis,thedispersionamongcompanies
withinindustriesindicatesaneedforcompanyanalysisafterindustryanalysis.
5.Forgiventimeperiods,thereweresignificantdifferencesinriskamongalternative
industries.AnanalysisofBetacoefficientsforthe30Barron飛industrygroupsindicated
awiderangeofsystematicrisk.Thesubstantialdispersioninriskforalternative
industriesimpliesthattheanalystmustexaminetherisklevelsforalternativeindustries.
6.Whilethereissubstantialdispersioninindustryriskduringagiventimeperiod,studies
indicatereasonablystablebetacoefficientsovertime.Thisimpliesthatpastindustryrisk
analysismaybeusefulinestimatingfuturerisk.
7.Thefourthstageoftheindustriallifecycleisstabilizationandmarketmaturity.During
thisstage,salesgrowinlinewiththeeconomy.Ifsalespershareforanindustryinthis
stageofthelifecyclewerepredictedtoincreaseby20percent,thiswouldimplya
growthrateoftheaggregateeconomyof20percent.Asalesgrowthrateof20percentis
highforanindustryinthefourthstageoftheindustriallifecycle.
8.Asaninvestor,youwouldliketodiscoverafirmjustenteringtherapidaccelerating
growthstage.Duringthisstage,afirmwillexperiencehighsalesgrowth,highprofit
margins,andlittlecompetition.
9.Anindustrythatexperiencedthekindofexplosivegrowthcharacteristicsofstagetwo
(rapidacceleratinggrowth)wastheinternet-relatedindustryinthelate1990s.
10.Input-outputanalysisisoneofthreepopularmethodsforforecastingindustrysales.For
autos,industriessupplyingsteel,glass,tiresandupholsteryfabricsshouldbescrutinized
aswellasthespendingcapabilities/habitsofconsumers.Forcomputers,thesuppliersof
criticalcomponentswouldhavetobestudiedalongwiththespendingcapabilities/habits
ofpotentialusers.
11.Asubstituteproductforsteelwouldlimitthepricesfirmsinthatindustrycouldcharge.
Thedegreeoflimitationwoulddependonhowcloselythesubstituteproductwasinprice
andfunctiontosteel.
12.Boththepresentvalueofcashflowapproachesandtherelativevaluationratiosapproach
requiretwofactorsbeestimated:(1)requiredrateofreturnonthestock,becausethisrate
becomesthediscountrateorisamajorcomponentofthediscountrate,and(2)growth
rateofthevariableusedinthevaluationtechniques,suchas,dividends,earnings,cash
flowsorsales.
13.Earningsmultiplier(P/E)isdeterminedby:
(1)theexpecteddividendpayoutratio,
(2)theestimatedrequiredrateofreturnonthestock(k),and
(3)theexpectedgrowthrateofdividendsforthestock(g).
Withintheretailfoodindustry,onewouldlookatacompany'sfundamentalrisk
(business,financial,liquidity,exchangeandcountryrisks).Differencesinfundamental
risklevelswilldetermineacompany'sperformancewithintheindustry.Onecouldalso
lookatthecompetitiveenvironmentofanindustry-rivalryamongtheexisting
competitors,threatofnewentrants,threatofsubstituteproducts,bargainingpowerof
buyers,andbargainingpowerofsuppliers.
14.Thetwo-stageFCFEmodelwouldapplytothevaluationofstockforgrowthcompanies
becausethehighgrowthofearningsforthegrowthcompanyisinconsistentwiththe
assumptionsoftheinfiniteperiodconstantgrowthDDMmodel.Acompanycannot
permanentlymaintainagrowthratehigherthanitsrequiredrateofreturn,because
competitionwilleventuallyenterthisapparentlylucrativebusiness,whichwillreducethe
firm9sprofitmarginsandthereforeitsROEandgrowthrate.Therefore,afterafewyears
ofexceptionalgrowth(aperiodoftemporarysupernormalgrowth)afirm'sgrowthrateis
expectedtodecline.Eventuallyitsgrowthrateisexpectedtostabilizeataconstantlevel
consistentwiththeassumptionsoftheinfiniteperiodDDM.
15.ThereasonforthedifferenceintheP/CFratioscanbeexplainedbydifferencesinthe
growthrateofCFpersharebetweenthemarketandindustry,andtherisk(volatility)of
theCFseriesovertime.Therefore,anincreaseinthegrowthrateoftheindustryCF
comparedtothegrowthofthemarketCF,aswellastheindustryCFseriesbecoming
moreconsistentinitsgrowth,wouldcauseanincreaseintheindustry-marketratio.
16.CFAExamination11(1999)
IdentifyCurrentStageinProductLifeCycle(circleone)
SUVModelandJustifyYourChoice
Declining
RavenThenumberofRavenSUVunitssoldhasdeclinedsinceitspeakin1997andthe
declineisexpectedtoacceleratein1999and2000.
Mature
HawkTherateofincreaseinthenumberofHawkSUVunitssoldhasslowedandthe
numbersoldisexpectedtoincreaseonlymodestlyin1999and2000.
Expanding
Eagle
ThenumberofEagleSLTVunitssoldhasincreasedrapidlysinceitsintroduction
in1997andisexpectedtocontinuegrowingrapidlyin1999and2000.
16(b).ThestatementthatNelsonMotorsisenjoyingincreasingSUVprofitabilityistrue.SUV
Divisionprofitshaveincreasedfrom$45millionin1990to$1,311millionin1998,
withadditionalsubstantialincreasesforecastfor1999and2000.TheSLTVdivisionhas
grownfromapproximately4%ofNelsonMotors9profitsin1990toanestimated52%
ofprofitsin2000.TheEagleisprimarilyresponsibleforthisprofitgrowthbecauseof
itshighunitsalesgrowthandgreaterprofitpervehiclecomparedtotheRavenandthe
Hawk.
Thesecondpartofthestatement,thatNelsonMotorsenjoysdecliningearningsrisk
goingforward,isnottrue.NelsonMotorsisrelyingheavilyontheEagletotaketheplace
oftheRaven,whichisinthedecliningphaseofitslifecycle,andtheHawk,whichisin
thematurityphaseofitslifecycle.NotethatNelsonMotorshasnoSUVmodelsother
thantheEagleintheearlyphaseoftheirlifecycle.TheincreasingdependenceofNelson
ontheprofitabilityoftheSUVdivisionincreasestheexposureofthecompanyto
developmentsthatwouldaffectthatproductline.
Insummary,whileNelsonMotorsmayenjoyincreasedprofitabilityduetothesuccessof
theEagle,therisktoearningshasactuallyincreasedbecausethecompanyismore
dependentononemodelinthefuture.IntheexistingSUVproductportfolio,theRaven
andHawkareaging,andtheircontributiontoNelson'sprofitsisdroppingdramatically.
17.CFAExamination11(1999)
Valid/IndustryCharacteristics
StatementNotValid(citetwobynumberforeach
(circleone)statement)
IrecommendthatweinvestintoyValid:1,2,4,5,6,15
companieswithasubstantialpercentageofValid
revenuesderivedfromnon-U.S.sales.NotValid:none
CompaniesselectedfortheportfolioValid:13
shouldderivealargeportionofrevenuesNotValid
fromthelargestdiscounttoyretailer.NotValid:13,14,15
Iamparticularlyinterestedinastart-upValid:12
companythathasanexcitingnewtoyNotValid
comingoutbasedonaverypopularNotValid:7,8,10,11,16
televisionshow.
AlthoughMasterToyhasthedominantValid:none
marketshare,smallercompanieswillhaveNotValid
betteropportunitiesforgrowth.NotValid:7,8,9,10,11,16
CHAPTER14
AnswerstoProblems
1.StudentExercise
2.StudentExercise
3.StudentExercise
4.StudentExercise
5.StudentExercise
6.StudentExercise
7.StudentExercise
8.CFAExamination11(1995)
8(a).RelevantdataitemsfromTable1thatsupporttheconclusionthattheretailautoparts
industryasawholeisinthestabilizationphaseoftheindustrylifecycleare:
1.Thepopulationof18-29yearolds,amajorcustomerbasefortheindustry,is
graduallydeclining.
2.Thenumberofhouseholdswithincomelessthan$35,000,anotherimportant
customerbase,isnotexpanding.
3.Thenumberofcars5-15yearsold,animportantendmarket,hasrecordedlow
annualgrowth(oractualdeclinesinsomeyears),sothenumberofunitsthat
potentiallyneedpartsisnotgrowing.
4.Automotiveaftermarketindustryretailsaleshavebeengrowingslowlyforseveral
years.
5.Consumerexpendituresonautomotivepartsandaccessorieshavegrownslowlyfor
severalyears.
6.Averageoperatingmarginsofallretailautopartscompanieshavesteadilydeclined.
8(b).RelevantitemsofdatafromTable1thatsupporttheconclusionthatWigwamAutoparts
Heaven,Inc.(WAHI)anditsmajorcompetitorsareinthegrowthstageoftheirlifecycle
are:
1.Salesgrowthofretailautopartscompanieswith100ormorestoreshavebeen
growingrapidlyandatanincreasingrate.
2.Marketshareofretailautopartsstoreswith100ormorestoreshasbeenincreasing
butisstillonly19percent,leavingroomformuchmoregrowth.
3.Averageoperatingmarginsforretailautopartscompanieswith100ormorestores
arehighandrising.
Becauseofindustryfragmentation(i.e.,mostofthemarketshareisdistributedamong
manycompanieswithonlyafewstores),thereta
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