摩根士丹利：中國思考如何提振經濟

August30,202410:46AM暑休之后，如何提振經濟方專項債來刺激消費并回購地產庫存。然而，通縮負反饋循政府或將加大房地產收儲力度，以應對經濟下行壓力。然而這些增量舉措仍然是反應式的，難以緩解通縮壓力。預計GDP環(huán)比增速僅僅在低位企穩(wěn)，難以出現(xiàn)明顯的復蘇。政府可能加大對房地產收儲的資金支持，但資金規(guī)模或許有限：彭博社報道稱，決策層正考慮允許地方政府發(fā)行專項債來購買未出售住房，以此來進一步推動目前停滯不前的房地產收儲計劃。該計劃于五月中旬推出，旨在緩解房地產庫存壓力，資金來源為央行推出的3,000億人民幣保障性住房再貸款。然而，使用該工具需要每年為其支付利息，同時貸款本金最晚也需在五年后償還。這在一定程度上抑制了地方政府動用該工具的積極性，尤其是一些債務壓力較大的地區(qū)。迄今為止，3,000億人民幣的再貸款資金僅僅發(fā)放了120億人民幣，進度較為緩慢。相比之下，地方專項債本質上背后有中央政府的支持。盡管地方政府需要每年為此支付利息，但到期本金可以被續(xù)作。如果從整體上而不是單獨地去考慮地方專項債的回報，那么地方政府將更加有動力去推動房地產去庫存。然而，有效房源的不足將影響政策效果。房地產過剩問題在低線城市中最為嚴峻。但隨著其人口總量不斷地萎縮，這些城市里的已建未售住房很有可能最終成為“不良資產”,因此難以成為理想的收購對象。相比之下，一二線城市住房需求相對旺盛，但這些城市里的住房庫存更多的是在建住房而非已建住房。另外，目前各地對收儲房源的大致要求是周邊交通便利、配套設施完善，同時優(yōu)先選取整棟或整單元未售、可實現(xiàn)封閉管理的項目。這就進一步限制了有效房源的規(guī)模?？紤]到上述因素，再加上政府此次為房地產收儲分配的專項債額度或許不多，上述政策對房地產市場的提振效果料將有限。為了提升政策的有效性，決策層可以考慮以下對策：第一，放松對房源規(guī)模及地段的限制。第二，建立一種新的機制，既能克服道德風險，又能使得在建住房也能成為有效房源。另外，決策層也可以考慮分配充足的資金，以避免地方政府在收儲過程中因過度壓降房價而打擊房企參與的積極性，擾亂市場信號。(接下頁)ThistranslatedreportismadeavailableforconvenienceonlytheoriginalresearchreportpublishedinEnglish.Intheeventofaresearchreportwillprevail.Musings:SummerLull?(22Aug2024).本翻譯報告僅供參考之便，摘自以英文發(fā)表的原版研究報告。如果翻譯與原版研究報告有任何不一致之處，以原版研究報告中的內容為準。原版研究報告可在此處查看：ChinaMusings:SummerLull?(22Aug2024)。邢自強張永添蔡志鵬趙皇冠Exhibit1:保障性住房再貸款額度發(fā)放緩慢2中國思考中國思考查看同系列內容>中文版研究報告MorganStanleycompaniescoveredinMorganinvestorsshouldbeinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivitResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganForanalystcertifirefertotheDisclosureSectiwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedcommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicapandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanal2總的來說，三中全會之后的政策刺激仍然是反應式的，難以使得通縮壓力得到有效的緩解，最終可能導致工資-物價的負反饋螺旋。從住戶調查的數(shù)據(jù)來看，名義工資同比增速已經在今年二季度跌到了4%。相比之下，2020-22年的平均水平為6%,而疫情前為8%以上。另外，消費者對就業(yè)的信心也達到了歷史新低，尤甚于2022年二季度上海長時間封控時的水平。然而，決策層重供給的政策思路難以改變，政策刺激也旨在為經濟托的政策刺激包括推出升級版的消費品以舊換新項目，比如為消費者提供更多的折扣，納入更多的消費品類等。Exhibit2:消費者信心創(chuàng)歷史新低并迅速惡化消費者信心指數(shù)：就業(yè)狀況2017201820192020202120Staleysa(Sngapore)Pte.(Regstatonnumber199206298Z)and/orMorganStanleyAsaGSngapore)SecuitsPtelLtd(Regstationnumber20000843AuthorityofSingapore(whichacceptslegalresposbiltyforitscontentsandshouldbecontatedwthrespettoanymattesarsngfroand/orMorgnStanleyTawanLimitedandorMorganStanley&Cohternationalple,SeoulBranch,andlorMorganStanleyAustralalimited(ABN67003734576,holderofAustalanfsevieslenseNo.233742,whichacceptsresponsbityforitscotents)and/orMorganStanleyWeathManagementAustalaPtyltd(ABN.1900914555,olderU02290MH1998PTC15305,regulatedbytheSecuritesandEchangBoardoflnda(“SEe”)andholderoflcenBrcker(SEEIStockBrokerRegstationNo.IN200024438),MerchantBanker(SEBIRegstationNo.IM0000m203),anddepstoy(SEEIRegstrationNa.INDPNSDL5672020havingregsteredoftceat18thHoorTower2,OMmbai400013,IndiaTelephoneno+91226181000ComplanceOffcerDetalsMtTershiHardas,TeLNo:+91226181oficerdetals:MrTeirshiHards,TeLNo:+91226181000oEmalmscomplance@morganstanleycomwhichaceptstheresponsbrespecttoanymattersarisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,MorganStFormpotandsclosures,stockpricechatsandequtyratinghstoresregardingcompaniesthatarethesubjectofthisreportpleaseatwwwmorganstanleycomlesearchdiscdosures,orcontactyourinvestmentrepresentativeorMorgnStanleyResearchat1585Broadwa,(Atteton:ResearchManagement,Forvaluationmethodolgyandrsksassclatedwthanyrecommendaton,atngorprtcetargetrerencedinthsresearchrepot,leasecotattheClentSupportTeamasfolow+1800303-2495;HongKong+852284859;LatinAnerica+1718754544(US);London+4(02074258169;Sngpore+6568346(0)3-68369000.AlternatelyoumaycontactyourinvestmetrepresentatveorMorganStanleyResearchat1585Brcadway,(ttentionReseThefolowinganadystsherebycetfythatthervewsabouthecompanlesandthersecurtesdscusedinthsrepotareacuratelyepresedreceivedirectorndirectcompensatMorganStanleyReseachhasbenpublsedinaccordancewthourcorflctmanagemetpolcy,whichisavaPortugueseversionofthepolicycanbefoundatwwwmorTheequtyreserchanadystsorstategstsprncipllyresponslbleforthereparationofMorganStanleyResearchhaverecevedcompersatofesearch,investordlentfedback,tockpckingcompetvefatos,fimrevenuesandoverllivestmentbankngrevernues.EqutylinkedtoinvestmentbankingorcapiMorganStanleyandtsaflatesdobusinessthatrelatestocomparieshcommercalbanking,extensonofcedt,investmentserncesandinvestmentbankingMorgantanleyselltoandbuysfomcustomestMorganStanleyResearchonaprincplbasisMorganStanleymayhaveapostioninthedebtoftheCompanyoriasprincipalinthedebtsecuritMorganStanleyusesareltvertngsystemusingtermschasOverweght,EqualweightNotPatedorUnderweightsedefntoratingsusedinMorganStanleyResearchlnadton,sinceMorganStanleyResearchcontansmorecompleteinformationconcerningtheanalstsviews,nvesStaleyResearch,inisentiretwandnotinferthecontentsfrontheratingalonelhanycase,ratings(oreseach)shouldnotbeusedorreleduponasivestobuyorsellastockshoulddependhold,andselbutrepresentrecommendedrelatveweigtings(seedefitonsbelow).Tosatsfyregulatoryregurements,webuyrecommendation;wecorreMORGANSTANLEYRESEARCH4Overweight(O).Thestockstotalretrnisepectedtoexcedtheaveragetotalreturmoftheanalystsindusty(orindustryteamis)covergeunvese,onariskadustedbsEqualweight(E.Thestoc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