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TheDemandforRealMoneyBalancesandMarketEquilibrium

2WhereIsAlltheMoney?InAugust2001,M1=$1,277.8billion$646.2billionwasincurrencyGiven107millionhouseholds,theaverageholdingsofeachhouseholdwere$11,940(intermsofM1)and$6,040(incurrency)AlargeportionofcheckabledepositsareheldbycorporationsEstimatesarethatmorethan50%ofU.S.currencyisheldoutsidetheU.S.3TheDemandforReal

MoneyBalancesWealthmaybeheldinrealassetsorfinancialassets(includingmoney)whenrelativeratesofreturnchange,householdsadjusttheirportfoliosmoneyalsofunctionsasameansofpayment(mediumofexchange)4TheDemandforReal

MoneyBalancesThedemandformoneyisactuallyademandforrealmoneybalancesadjustedforchangesinpurchasingpowerArealmoneybalancecanbedefinedasthenominalmoneysupply(M)dividedbytheoverallpricelevel(P)realmoneybalances=M/P5TheDemandforReal

MoneyBalancesSincethedemandformoneyisademandforrealmoneybalances,nominalmoneydemandisproportionaltotheoveralllevelofpricesifthepricelevelrisesby10%,nominalmoneydemandrisesby10%6Households’DemandforRealMoneyBalancesTherearetwomotivesbehindhouseholds’demandtoholdrealmoneybalanceshouseholdsneedmoneytoconsummatetransactions(transactionsmotive)householdstrytoholdsomerealmoneybalancesasaprecautionagainstunforeseendevelopments(precautionarymotive)7RealMoneyHoldingsbyaTypicalHouseholdAverageholdingsofrealmoneybalancesoverthemonthTime(Months)$2,100–$1,100–$100–PrecautionaryDemandTransactionsDemandTransactionsDemand8Households’DemandforRealMoneyBalancesRealmoneybalancesyieldastreamofservicestohouseholdsbenefitsofholdingrealmoneybalancesdefinedbythetimeanddistresssavedbyhavingmoneyonhandforimmediateusemonetary(reducedtransactionsfeessuchasbrokeragefees)nonmonetary(reducedtimeandinconvenience)9Households’DemandforRealMoneyBalancesThecostofholdingrealmoneybalances

istheadditionalforegoneinterestthatholdingnonmonetaryfinancialassetswouldhaveyieldedevenwhenmoneypaysinterest,theinterestrateonrealmoneybalancesisgenerallylowerthanwhatcouldbeearnedonlessliquidfinancialassets10Households’DemandforRealMoneyBalancesCeterisparibus,theinterestrateonnonmonetaryassetsandthequantitydemandedofrealmoneyareinverselyrelatedCeterisparibus,thecostoftransferringfromnonmonetaryassetstomonetaryassetsandthequantitydemandedofrealmoneyaredirectlyrelated11Firms’DemandforReal

MoneyBalancesFirmswantrealbalancestoconsummatetransactionssomepaymentswillberegularandexpectedotherpaymentsmaybeexpected,buttheirtimingmaybeuncertainstillotherpaymentsmaybecompletelyunexpectedThus,firmshavebothtransactionsandprecautionarymotives12Firms’DemandforReal

MoneyBalancesFirmsexperiencetwoflowsofrealmoneybalancesexpendituresthatgenerateoutflowsoffundsreceiptsthatgenerateinflowsoffundsThebasicproblemisthattheseflowsarenotsynchronizedThus,firmsmustconsiderthebenefitsandcostsofholdingrealmoneybalances13HowHouseholdsandFirmsDecideWhatAmountofRealBalancestoHoldBenefitsofHoldingRealMoneyBalances

Abilitytoprovideastreamofservicesbecausemoneyisavailablewhenneededtomakepayments,thusavoidingtheneedtopayabrokeragefeetogetmoneyandtheinconvenienceofwaitingformoneytoarriveInterestearnedoncheckabledeposits(forhouseholds)CostofHoldingRealMoneyBalancesForgoneinterestthatnonmonetarybalanceswouldhaveearnedDecisionRuleHoldrealmoneybalancesaslongasthebenefitsaregreaterthanthecostsversus14TheInterestRate,RealIncome,andRealMoneyBalancesTheopportunitycostofholdingcurrencyorcheckabledepositsistheforegoneinterestastheinterestraterises,thisopportunitycostincreasesthus,athigherinterestrates,householdsandfirmswillwanttosubstituteintootherlessliquidassetsthatyieldahigherreturn15TheInterestRate,RealIncome,andRealMoneyBalancesThereisaninverserelationshipbetweentheinterestrateandthequantitydemandedofrealmoneybalancesQdofrealmoneybalances=f

(interestrate)iftheinterestrateincreases,thequantitydemandedofrealmoneybalancesfallsiftheinterestratedecreases,thequantitydemandedofrealmoneybalancesrises16ADemandCurveforReal

MoneyBalancesInterestRate(Percent)RealMoneyBalancesDemandAdeclineintheinterestrate……leadstoanincreaseinthequantitydemandedofrealmoneybalances17TheInterestRate,RealIncome,andRealMoneyBalancesTheamountofnominalmoneydemandedbyahouseholdisdirectlyrelatedtoitsincomeThequantitydemandedofrealmoneybalanceswillbedirectlyrelatedtorealincomenominalincomedividedbyapriceindex18TheInterestRate,RealIncome,andRealMoneyBalancesHowever,therelationshipbetweenhouseholddemandforrealmoneybalancesandrealincomeisnotproportionaladoublingofrealincomewillresultinalessthanproportionalincreaseinthedemandforrealmoneybalances19TheInterestRate,RealIncome,andRealMoneyBalancesAsfirmsexpandproductionandsales,theirtransactionswillalsoriseanotherreasonwhyanincreaseinrealincomewilltranslateintoanincreaseinthedemandforrealmoneybalances20TheDemandforReal

MoneyBalancesInterestRateRealMoneyBalancesDemandAnincreaseinrealincomeleadstoanincreaseindemandD'D''Adecreaseinrealincomeleadstoadecreaseindemand21AdditionalFactorsAffectingtheDemandforRealMoneyBalancesThedemandforrealmoneybalancescanalsobeaffectedbywealth(aswealthincreases,thedemandforrealmoneybalancesincreases)paymenttechnologiesexpectedinflationtheriskandliquidityofotherfinancialassets22PaymentTechnologiesThewidespreadavailabilityofATMmachinesallowsfundstobeeasilytransferredfromsavingsaccountstocheckingaccountsThisreducesthedemandforrealmoneybalancesTheavailabilityofcreditcardswillhaveasimilareffectonthedemandforrealmoneybalances23ExpectedInflationInflationreducesthevalueandpurchasingpowerofmoneyThelargerahousehold’smoneybalances,thegreatertheriskoflossesifinflationshouldoccurExpectationsofhigherinflationreducethedemandforrealmoneybalances24LiquidityofOtherFinancialAssetsIftheliquidityofotherfinancialassetsincreases,theyarebettersubstitutesforrealmoneybalancesThisshouldreducethedemandforrealmoneybalances25RiskofOtherFinancialAssetsIftheriskofotherfinancialassetsincreases,thedemandforrealmoneybalancesshouldrise26FactorsthatAffecttheDemandforRealMoneyBalances27EquilibriumintheMarketforRealMoneyBalancesTheFedexertsagreatdealofcontroloverthesupplyofnominalmoneySincerealmoneybalancesarenominalbalancesdividedbyapriceindex,theFedmustalsohaveagreatdealofcontroloverthesupplyofrealmoneybalancesThesupplyofrealmoneybalanceswillbeaverticalline28EquilibriumintheMarketforRealMoneyBalancesEquilibriumoccurswherethequantitydemandedofrealmoneybalancesisequaltothequantitysuppliedofrealmoneybalances29EquilibriumintheMarketforRealMoneyBalancesInterestRate(Percent)RealMoneyBalancesDemandSupplyAtaninterestratehigherthan6%,therewouldbeasurplusoffundsAtaninterestratelowerthan6%,therewouldbeashortageoffunds6A30ChangesintheSupplyofRealMoneyBalancesOpenmarketoperationsleadtochangesinreservesthatleadtochangesinthenominalmoneysupplyifpricesremainconstant,thentherealsupplyofmoneybalanceswillchange31ChangesintheSupplyofRealMoneyBalancesChangesinpricesarecorrelatedwithpastchangesinthemoneysupplytheimmediateresponsetoanincreaseinthegrowthrateisalessthanproportionalincreaseinthepricelevelbecausepricechangeslag,thesupplyofrealmoneybalanceswillbeaffectedbychangesinthenominalmoneysupply32AChangeintheSupplyof

RealBalancesInterestRate(Percent)RealMoneyBalancesMSMS'WhentheFedincreasesreserves,thesupplyofrealmoneybalancesincreasesMS”WhentheFeddecreasesreserves,thesupplyofrealmoneybalancesdecreases33AnIncreaseintheSupplyofRealMoneyBalancesSupposetheFeddecidestouseopenmarketpurchasestoincreasereservesthesupplyofrealmoneybalancesrisesifthedemandforrealmoneybalancesisunchanged,theinterestratewillfall34AChangeintheSupplyof

RealBalancesInterestRate(Percent)RealMoneyBalancesMSMS'DemandAB35AnIncreaseintheSupplyofRealMoneyBalancesSupposetheincreaseinthemoneysupplyachieveitsdesiredresultsrealincomeincreasesfirmsseeincreasesinsalesThiswillleadtoariseinthedemandforrealmoneybalances36AChangeintheSupplyof

RealBalancesInterestRate(Percent)RealMoneyBalancesMSMS'DD’Theneteffectontheinterestratedependsontherelativemagnitudesoftheshifts37AChangeintheDemandforRealMoneyBalancesThedemandforrealmoneybalancescanchangeforavarietyofreasonsAssumingthatthesupplyofrealmoneybalancesdoesnotchangeanincreaseindemandwillleadtoahigherinterestrateadecreaseindemandwillleadtoalowerinterestrate38EquilibriumintheMarketforRealMoneyBalancesInterestRate(Percent)RealMoneyBalancesDSupplyAAnincreaseinthedemandforrealmoneybalanceswillleadtoahigherinterestrateDD’39AFinalNoteThischapterdevelopsatheoryofinterestratedeterminationbasedonthesupplyofandthedemandforrealmoneybalancesrealmoneybalancesaremeasuredataparticularpointintime(stockmeasures)40AFinalNoteEarlier,wedevelopedatheoryofinterestratedeterminationbasedonthesupplyofandthedemandforloanablefundsthesupplyofanddemandforloanablefundsaremeasuredthroughtime(flowmeasures)41AFinalNoteWhenthereisachangeinastockmeasure,aflowhasoccurredchangesintheflowofloanablefundsentailchangesinthestocksofrealmoneybalancesasmeasuredattwodifferentpointsintime42SummaryofMajorPointsThedemandformoneyisreallyademandforrealmoneybalancesrealmoneybalancesarenominalbalancesdividedbythepricelevelchangesintheoverallpricelevelleadtoproportionalchangesinthedemandformoneyandnochangeinthedemandforrealbalanceshouseholdsdemandmoneyfortransactionsandprecautionarymotives43SummaryofMajorPointsHoldingrealmoneybalancesinvolvesbothbenefitsandcoststhebenefitsaretheinterestpaymentsearnedbycheckabledepositsplusthestreamofservicesthatmoneybalancesprovidethecostsaretheforegoneinterestpaymentsthatholdingnonmonetar

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