2014鐵礦石價格預(yù)測.docx

2014鐵礦石價格預(yù)測下圖為2014年1月17日鐵礦石價格表（表格為下圖的翻譯）：價格收盤價變動百分比鐵礦石1年掉期鐵礦石現(xiàn)貨價格螺紋鋼均價大商所期貨價格1年鐵礦石掉期價格已經(jīng)破位，但從技術(shù)上看并不是非?？纯铡Ｅc此同時，現(xiàn)貨價格已經(jīng)跌破131美元的支撐位，在跌至110美元之前并無明顯支撐。下圖：鐵礦石1年掉期近期，大商所6個月后交割的合約（1307合約）開始下滑，當(dāng)前其價格在117美元附近，這與OREX 交易所的112美元不一樣。螺紋鋼價格也在下滑，在產(chǎn)能嚴(yán)重過剩背景下，螺紋鋼價格深陷倒掛境地。（下圖：螺紋鋼均價）Lets get straight to it. Iron ore is in trouble again. The question is how much trouble?Are we seeing the leading edge of the big price falls long expected on the great supply deluge? Or are we seeing just another Chineseinventory cycle?現(xiàn)在說說正題：.鐵礦石再次面臨困境 問題是這回又有多嚴(yán)峻呢?在此，我們是該看到的供應(yīng)嚴(yán)重過剩下的價格大跳水帶來的好處呢，還是另一個中國的庫存周期？My answer is both. The remarkable story of last years iron ore strengtharound an average of $130 was impressive. But one should always recall the long term. Reversing the perspective, despite Chinese steel production jumping a spectacular 9% last year, iron ore is stilldown$50 from its 2011 highs. This says to me that we are long passed the leading edge of the structural iron ore correction. Cyclical forces look increasingly high risk as well.我的回答的兩者都應(yīng)看到。去年鐵礦石均價保持在130美元是個很了不得的事情，但人們應(yīng)該從長遠來看。盡管中國2013鋼材產(chǎn)量增幅高達9%，與我之前看法相反的是，鐵礦石價格從2011年高點下滑了50美元。這告訴我，經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整予以鐵礦石的美好時代已不復(fù)存在，經(jīng)濟的周期性成為了巨大風(fēng)險。Entering 2014, on the structural front, there are two major facts to consider. The first is Chinese steel demand. As diagnosed through the second half of last year, thepresent round of Chinese growth is nota sustainable private sector growthcycle. Rather it is a lurching sequence of stimulus and tightening measures as imbalances vie with economic mandarins for control of the economy.邁入2014年這個關(guān)鍵時期，我們需要考慮兩個因素：第一個是中國的鋼材需求。通過對下半年的分析得知，中國當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟增長對民營經(jīng)濟來說是不可持續(xù)的；在政府收支失衡和經(jīng)濟學(xué)官員都想掌控經(jīng)濟的較量中，其效果更像是刺激和緊縮政策帶來的不確定性。The two trillion yuan stimulus package thatrescued growth for much of last year is easing. The infrastructure pipeline is emptying:雖然2萬億元的一攬子刺激計劃保證了去年經(jīng)濟的增速，但作用卻在減弱?；ㄍ度胝诳s減：（圖：新建和正在建設(shè)工程）The strong surge in real estate sales last year is also abating as various monetary and fiscal nips and tucks add up, though we may seea decent follow through this year in housing starts.由于各種貨幣和財政政策的限制，去年全年房產(chǎn)銷量的強勢上揚正在減退，但這與今年相當(dāng)?shù)男挛蓍_工并不沖突。But, basically, the billion dollar question for this years steel outlook is: will Chinas planned rebalancing be allowed to proceed or will the temptation to kick the can with more stimulusprove irresistibleonce more? The realists will say inevitably. And in that event, iron ore will have a better time in the second half of this year than the first is shaping up to be.但從根本上講，決定今年鋼價走勢的關(guān)鍵性問題是：中國政府既定的經(jīng)濟調(diào)整是否會繼續(xù)施行或者在刺激政策看似無法避免的當(dāng)下繼續(xù)向前發(fā)展經(jīng)濟的意愿是多少?，F(xiàn)實主義者會說：這樣的事情不可避免。這種情形下，鐵礦石價格在今年下半年將迎來較好時光。The other structural consideration for iron ore is the degree of supply capacity coming online in the next six months. Versus last year, another 100 million tonnes of capacity will be in operation by mid year via completions at BHPs Jimblebar, Rios Pilbara 290 and Fortescues Kings expansion.另一個重點考慮對象是今后半年鐵礦石新增上線產(chǎn)能到底有多少。與去年相比，今年年中將有1億噸的產(chǎn)能上線運行，其中包括必和必拓Jimblebar礦的完工，力拓皮爾巴拉礦290礦的完工，以及Fortescue的國王礦山的擴產(chǎn)項目完工。Its worth revisitingthe old supply and demand chart:修改舊版的供需平衡表就變得非常必要：India is also beginning to return, if only slowly. From Credit Suisse:印度正在恢復(fù)鐵礦石供應(yīng)，如果慢點會更好。蘇黎世銀行數(shù)據(jù)顯示：（下圖：印度出口到中國和日本的鐵礦石數(shù)量）Moreover, Rios plans to move forward on Pilbara 360 will see supply continue to ramp up (it could bring another 30-40 million tonnes to market by year end). God help us, Roy Hill appears to be going ahead as well, with a completion date next year for another 55 million tonnes, though that is very aggressive. Vale also starts to deliver its expansions next year.此外，力拓對皮爾巴拉360礦的開采將促成供應(yīng)的攀升（預(yù)計年底新增產(chǎn)量達到3000-4000萬噸）。Roy Hill礦也走在擴產(chǎn)的前列，預(yù)計明年全年的新增產(chǎn)量將達到5500萬噸，這一數(shù)據(jù)可謂相當(dāng)大。淡水河谷在明年將實現(xiàn)擴產(chǎn)產(chǎn)量的外運。There are two mitigating factors. The first is high cost Chinese supply will be displaced in the shakeout. But the process is certain to be more slow and irrational than markets expect, just as it has been in the two coals. The second mitigating factor is the market power of the Pilbara cartel, which is substantial. But with each passing year more supply and suppliers weakens the major Australian suppliers price making power.同時也有兩個緩和因素：第一個是中國的高成本鐵礦石將會被擠出市場，但這個過程會比市場預(yù)期的慢和曲折，這一情況跟焦煤和動力煤市場一樣。第二個是，皮爾巴拉集團的市場力量非常強大。但隨著時間的流逝，鐵礦石數(shù)量和供應(yīng)商的增多將削弱澳大利亞主要的供應(yīng)商的定價能力。In terms of market structure, then, supply is upon us and will keep coming and the growth drivers of Chinese steel demand are sputtering. I expect long term global demand for seaborne iron ore to keep growing in the low single digits as the global recovery grinds along. But as the consumer of 60% of global iron ore, the critical question is Chinese demand. If the communists stimulate again (delaying rebalancing) we can expect an iron ore average price somewhere between $110-$120 this year. If they do not then knock $20 off.就市場結(jié)構(gòu)而言，供應(yīng)端貨源充足，中國鋼廠需求的驅(qū)動因素正在減少。我預(yù)計隨著全球經(jīng)濟的復(fù)蘇，全球鐵礦石海運需求還將長期以1位數(shù)增長。作為全球鋼材消費大國（60%）的中國，其需求是最為關(guān)鍵的問題。如果共產(chǎn)黨再次實行刺激政策（延后經(jīng)濟結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整），我們預(yù)期今年鐵礦石均價將保持在110-120美元之間。如果無刺激政策，鐵礦石價格將下滑20美元。There are also very clear reasons to be bearish in terms of the near term Chinese stock cycle. Chinese steel mills have largely rebuilt their inventory of imported ore after the two huge rundowns of the past eighteen months. Also from Credit Suisse:從今起庫存周期來看是非常值得看空的。在過去一年半內(nèi)經(jīng)歷兩輪大跌之后，中國鋼廠進口鐵礦石庫存再次大幅爬升。同樣，蘇黎世銀行數(shù)據(jù)顯示：Port inventories are not a direct proxy for demand but do indicate something about the fullness or otherwise of the Chinese iron ore supply chain and the great pile of 2012 has also been significantly rebuilt at 91.6 million tonnes this week:港口庫存并不是需求的直接體現(xiàn)，但能表現(xiàn)貨物的充足性和中國鐵礦石供應(yīng)鏈的狀況。2012年的高庫存在經(jīng)歷下行后，于本周回到了9160萬噸的高位。We remain below previous highs but its still an impressive hoard.盡管當(dāng)前庫存低于前期高點，但數(shù)量依舊是非常巨大的。In short, we are not far short of the same cyclical surplus of iron ore inventories in China that existed prior to the crash of 2012, and we are facing a similar (if slower moving) emerging crunch in demand.簡單說來，我們身處中國鐵礦石周期性過剩之中，2012年大跌之前有過同樣的狀況。同時我們面臨著需求萎縮的類似局面。Cyclical factorsshouldkeep these bearish settings at bay for a little while. The first quarter is typically a very strong one for iron ore and steel. Mills build a up big inventory of steel as demand slows in the winter and then run it down over the course of the year. Here is the Chinese rebar inventory cycle courtesy of Bloomberg:周期性因素會市場在熊市中保持一段時間。第一季度就是一個非常典型的熊市。鋼廠在冬季需求疲軟的情況下庫存大幅增加，年內(nèi)高企的庫存將得到緩解。下圖為中國螺紋鋼庫存（來自彭博）As well, the cyclone season means mills rebuild their iron ore stockpiles in Q4 and hold high inventories throughout the season. As weve already seen, weather threats boost prices. However, given the slowing economy and depleting infrastructure pipeline, I would not be surprised to see this years steel inventory rebuild to be smaller than last years, which would be something of a trend break, as you can see.南半球的氣旋季節(jié)（雨季）意味著鋼廠將在4季度儲備鐵礦石庫存，而且整個季節(jié)庫存將維持高位。正如我們所見，天氣威脅刺激價格上漲。然而，在經(jīng)濟放緩和基建減速的情況下，當(dāng)我們發(fā)現(xiàn)今年鋼材補庫后的庫存低于去年時，我們將不足為奇。如我們所見，這就打破了曾經(jīng)的庫存上行趨勢。That the iron ore price is falling at all through this period is quite bearish.There is also the problem that with rebar prices well off the highs of last year, many steel mills are once again losing money.In the past this has triggered iron ore inventory rundowns, which would run counter to, or could overwhelm, the seasonal strength.近期鐵礦石價格下跌得的確有些厲害，現(xiàn)實的問題還包括：螺紋鋼價格在經(jīng)歷去年高點后，許多鋼材再度進入虧損境地。在過去，虧損的境地會迫使鐵礦石庫存下滑，這也就削弱了季節(jié)性因素的影響。As I warned in the later months of last year, whether Q114 will be dominated by a typical spurt of iron ore demand as China moves past its new year holiday at the end of January or the current steel price squ