11_diffusionofinnovations創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散

1、11. 創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散Diffusion of innovations11.1 創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散研究11.2創(chuàng)新的特征11.3創(chuàng)新者的特征11.4環(huán)境 思考：思考：l是什么因素促使你使用互聯(lián)網(wǎng)？請列舉。思考：思考：l你是否通過網(wǎng)上購物？l如果是，請列舉促使你使用網(wǎng)絡(luò)購物的原因l如果不是，請列舉不通過網(wǎng)上購物的原因11.1創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散研究創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散研究l創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散模型是對創(chuàng)新采用的各類人群進(jìn)行研究歸類的一種模型l理論思想：在創(chuàng)新面前，部分人會比另一部分人思想更開放，更愿意采納創(chuàng)新l 這個模型也被稱之為 創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散理論（Diffusion of Innovations Theory），或多步創(chuàng)新流動理論

2、（Multi-Step Flow Theory）創(chuàng)新采用曲線（Innovation Adoption Curve） 創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散l“創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散理論” 是美國學(xué)者埃弗雷特 羅杰斯（E.M.Rogers）提出的l埃弗雷特羅杰斯認(rèn)為創(chuàng)新是：“一種被個人或其他采納單位視為新穎的觀念、時間或事物?！眑思考：哪些東西可稱作創(chuàng)新？創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散l一項(xiàng)創(chuàng)新應(yīng)具備l相對的便利性l兼容性l復(fù)雜性l可靠性l可感知性l另一美國學(xué)者羅杰 菲德勒則認(rèn)為創(chuàng)新還應(yīng)當(dāng)包括 “ 熟悉 ” 這一要素創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散l羅杰斯把創(chuàng)新的采用者分為l革新者l早期采用者l早期追隨者l晚期追隨者l落后者 創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散包括五個階段創(chuàng)

3、新擴(kuò)散包括五個階段l了解階段：接觸新技術(shù)新事物，但知之甚少。 l興趣階段：發(fā)生興趣，并尋求更多的信息。 l評估階段：聯(lián)系自身需求，考慮是否采納。 l試驗(yàn)階段：觀察是否適合自己的情況。 l采納階段：決定在大范圍內(nèi)實(shí)施。 創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散l創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散被定義為以一定的方式隨時間在社會系統(tǒng)的各種成員間進(jìn)行傳播的過程l擴(kuò)散過程就由l創(chuàng)新l傳播渠道l時間l社會系統(tǒng)四個要素組成l由此可見，傳播渠道成為其中一個重要的環(huán)節(jié)。 創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散l創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散的傳播過程可以用一條 “S” 形曲線來描述l在擴(kuò)散的早期，采用者很少，進(jìn)展速度也很慢l當(dāng)采用者人數(shù)擴(kuò)大到居民的10%25% 時，進(jìn)展突然加快，曲線迅速上升并保持這一

4、趨勢，即所謂的 “ 起飛期 “ l在接近飽和點(diǎn)時，進(jìn)展又會減緩。整個過程類似于一條 “S” 形的曲線創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散l在創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散過程中，早期采用者為后來的起飛作了必要的準(zhǔn)備。這個看似 “ 勢單力薄 ” 的群體能夠在人際傳播中發(fā)揮很大的作用，勸說他人接受創(chuàng)新（馬云的例子）創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散l在羅杰斯看來，早期采用者就是愿意率先接受和使用創(chuàng)新事物并甘愿為之冒風(fēng)險那部分人l這些人不僅對創(chuàng)新初期的種種不足有著較強(qiáng)的忍耐力，還能夠?qū)ψ陨硭幐魅后w的意見領(lǐng)袖展開 “ 游說 “ ，使之接受以至采用創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品l之后，創(chuàng)新又通過意見領(lǐng)袖們迅速向外擴(kuò)散。這樣，創(chuàng)新距其 “ 起飛期 “ 的來臨已然不遠(yuǎn)創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散l

5、羅杰斯指出，創(chuàng)新事物在一個社會系統(tǒng)中要能繼續(xù)擴(kuò)散下去，首先必須有一定數(shù)量的人采納這種創(chuàng)新物l通常，這個數(shù)量是人口的10-20%l創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散比例一旦達(dá)到臨界數(shù)量，擴(kuò)散過程就起飛，進(jìn)入快速擴(kuò)散階段l飽和點(diǎn)（saturated point）的概念是指創(chuàng)新在社會系統(tǒng)中一般不總能100擴(kuò)散 創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散l事實(shí)上，很多創(chuàng)新在社會系統(tǒng)中最終只能擴(kuò)散到某個百分比。當(dāng)系統(tǒng)中的創(chuàng)新采納者再也沒有增加時，系統(tǒng)中的創(chuàng)新采納者數(shù)量（絕對數(shù)量表示）或創(chuàng)新采納者比例（相對數(shù)量表示），就是該創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散的飽和點(diǎn)。 創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散l羅杰斯認(rèn)為，創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散總是借助一定的社會網(wǎng)絡(luò)進(jìn)行的，在創(chuàng)新向社會推廣和擴(kuò)散的過程中，信息技術(shù)能夠有

6、效地提供相關(guān)的知識和信息，但在說服人們接受和使用創(chuàng)新方面，人際交流則顯得更為直接、有效 創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散l因此，創(chuàng)新推廣的最佳途徑是將信息技術(shù)和人際傳播結(jié)合起來加以應(yīng)用 l思考：如果面試時你要幫一家公司，例如佛山移動公司設(shè)計動感地帶推廣方案，你如何設(shè)計？（理論的功能）創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散l創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散理論是多級傳播模式在創(chuàng)新領(lǐng)域的具體運(yùn)用l在創(chuàng)新向社會推廣和擴(kuò)散的過程中，大眾傳播能夠有效地提供相關(guān)的知識和信息，而在說服人們接受和使用創(chuàng)新方面，人際傳播則顯得更為直接、有效l因此，羅杰斯認(rèn)為，推廣創(chuàng)新的最佳途徑是 “ 雙管齊下 “將大眾傳播和人際傳播結(jié)合起來加以應(yīng)用創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散l“S” 形曲線理論在市

7、場營銷、廣告推廣、產(chǎn)品代謝以及媒介生命周期的研究方面都得到了承認(rèn)，有著廣闊的應(yīng)用前景。 Rogers創(chuàng)新采用曲線創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散研創(chuàng)新采用曲線創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散研究的五個焦點(diǎn)究的五個焦點(diǎn) l對創(chuàng)新成果采用與否有重要影響的創(chuàng)新活動自身的特征l人們在考慮一個新主意、一件新產(chǎn)品或一項(xiàng)新項(xiàng)目時所采取的決策過程l采用創(chuàng)新人群的一些個人特征l個人或社會采用創(chuàng)新的后果和影響l采用創(chuàng)新過程中的溝通渠道創(chuàng)新采用曲線類別創(chuàng)新采用曲線類別 l創(chuàng)新者（Innovators） 他們是勇敢的先行者，自覺推動創(chuàng)新。 創(chuàng)新者在創(chuàng)新交流過程中，發(fā)揮著非常重要的作用。 l早期采用者（Early Adopters） 他們是受人尊敬的社會人士，是公眾

8、意見領(lǐng)袖，他們樂意引領(lǐng)時尚、嘗試新鮮事物，但行為謹(jǐn)慎。 l早期采用人群（Early Majority） 他們是有思想的一群人，也比較謹(jǐn)慎，但他們較之普通人群更愿意、更早地接受變革。 創(chuàng)新采用曲線類別創(chuàng)新采用曲線類別l后期采用人群（Late Majority） 他們是持懷疑態(tài)度的一群人，只有當(dāng)社會大眾普遍接受了新鮮事物的時候，他們才會采用。 l遲緩者（Laggards） 他們是保守傳統(tǒng)的一群人，習(xí)慣于因循守舊，對新鮮事物吹毛求疵，只有當(dāng)新的發(fā)展成為主流、成為傳統(tǒng)時，他們才會被動接受創(chuàng)新采用曲線的運(yùn)用創(chuàng)新采用曲線的運(yùn)用 lRogers的創(chuàng)新采用曲線說明，試圖快速印證、廣泛采用全新的、爭議中的創(chuàng)新主

9、意，是不現(xiàn)實(shí)的l 促進(jìn)創(chuàng)新采用的最好的方法是，首先說服創(chuàng)新者與早期采用者l在溝通過程中，還可以結(jié)合創(chuàng)新類別與采用百分比，更為準(zhǔn)確地估計目標(biāo)群體 11.1創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散研究創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散研究lBarbara Wejnert (2002): Integrating models of diffusion of innovations: A Conceptual Framework, Annual Review of Sociology, 28:297326擴(kuò)散的定義擴(kuò)散的定義lWhat is a diffusion?“Diffusion is the process by which through ov

10、er time .” - Everett Rogers (1995) Diffusion of Innovation, 4th ed.創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散lDiffusion of innovations refers to the spread of labstract ideas and concepts （例如民主的擴(kuò)散、西學(xué)東漸、馬克思主義引入中國）ltechnical information （互聯(lián)網(wǎng)、短信）lactual practices （買“碼”）lThe spread denotes the flow or movement , typically (Rogers 1995

11、)創(chuàng)新的采納者創(chuàng)新的采納者lCommunication and influence alter an adopters probability of adopting an innovationlAn actor may be any societal entity, including創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散：研究的意義創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散：研究的意義lStudies of diffusionlAn empirical and quantitative basis for developing more rigorous approaches to (e.g., new conceptual and mathema

12、tical explanations of social change) (DeFleur 1966)lOften used in assessments of world economic and political developments創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散研究特征創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散研究特征l跨學(xué)科的特征lSociologylEconomicslPolitical sciencelCommunication過往關(guān)于創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散的研究過往關(guān)于創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散的研究 （hybrid-corn use among Iowa farmers）（Ryan & Gross，1943），之后4000多篇論文發(fā)表 （agricult

13、ural practices） (Fliegel 1993, Griliches 1957)(technologies ) (Burt 1987,Coleman et al. 1966, Palmer et al. 1993)過往關(guān)于創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散的研究過往關(guān)于創(chuàng)新擴(kuò)散的研究 (fertility-control methods) (Rogers &cKincaid 1981, Rosero-Bixby & Casterline 1994) (policy innovations) (Berry &cBerry 1992, Boli-Bennett & Ramirez 1987, Valente 1

14、995) (political reforms) (Meyer 1987, Starr 1991)影響擴(kuò)散的變量影響擴(kuò)散的變量lCharacteristics of innovationslCharacteristics of innovatorslEnvironmental context11.2 創(chuàng)新的特征創(chuàng)新的特征 characteristics of the innovation lCharacteristics of innovationslpublic versus private consequenceslbenefits versus costs創(chuàng)新的特征之一：公眾后果 vs.

15、 私人后果lPrivate vs. public consequences refer to the impact of an innovations adoption on lentities (public consequences）versus that (private consequences)公眾后果公眾后果lInnovations that result in public consequences involve collective actorscountries, states within countries, and organizations and social m

16、ovementsmostly concerned with issues of societal well-beinglAmong such innovations are lPolitical models of democracy (Uhlin 1995, Wejnert 2001)lWelfare and education policies (Thomas & Lauderdale 1987, Boli-Bennett & Meyer 1978)lState laws (Berry & Berry 1990,1992)私人后果私人后果lInnovations with private

17、consequences affect the well-being of adopters that are eitherlIndividualslsmall collective entities such as organizations, peer groups, and rural communities. lThese innovations are intended to improve the quality of individual lives or to reform organizational and social structures創(chuàng)新過程的決定因素創(chuàng)新過程的決定

18、因素l創(chuàng)新來源（the source of an innovation）與采納者（adopter）之間的互動機(jī)制（mechanisms of interaction）決定創(chuàng)新過程Innovations with public consequences：采納的因素：采納的因素 IlThe information and imitative models are uniformly distributed around the worldlThe norms, values, or expectations about certain forms or practices become deepl

19、y ingrained in societyinstitutionalizedand reflect widespread and shared understandings of social reality (Meyer & Rowan 1977:343) 例如：lrapid spread of mass educationlsocial security systemslmodels of nation-states among the worlds political statesInnovations with public consequences：采納的因素：采納的因素 IIlM

20、edia becomes a channel of influence on adoption primarily when the innovations are popular, well-defined societal issues民主模式的擴(kuò)散民主模式的擴(kuò)散Adoption of democracy modelThe institutionalization of democracy Media Country to-country interaction帶來私人后果的創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散帶來私人后果的創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散lThe spatial and temporal contiguity（接近）

21、between a source of a new practice and a potential adopter帶來私人后果的創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散帶來私人后果的創(chuàng)新的擴(kuò)散Adoption of an innovation with private consequences geographic proximity interpersonal communication institutional or individual coercion創(chuàng)新的特征之二：創(chuàng)新的特征之二：Benefits vs. costs：monetary and nonmonetary direct and indirect c

22、osts, or risks associated with the adoption of an innovation, or ：patents of industrial innovation, new agricultural seeds, fertilizers or equipment, computer-operated machines, satellite antennas, or reform of social policies, or time spent on retraining a labor force to use an innovation; social c

23、ost such as innovation-induced social conflict（例如計劃生育在農(nóng)村社會的沖突）11.3 Characteristics of InnovatorslCharacteristics of innovatorslsocietal entitylfamiliarity with the innovationlstatus characteristicslsocioeconomic characteristicslposition in social networkslpersonal characteristics創(chuàng)新者特征之一：Societal ent

24、ity of innovatorsl創(chuàng)新者的劃分lLarge collective actorslSmall collective actorslIndividual actorsl創(chuàng)新者的影響變量lthe type of selected for adoptionlthe nature of between the source of an innovation and an adopterlthe importance of strong vs. weak in adoptionlthe macro vs. micro character of Adoptions by large col

25、lective actorsl創(chuàng)新的類型：大規(guī)模的歷史變革leducational modelslwelfare policieslland reform modelsldemocracy modelslpatent lawslstate policySmall collective actorslSmall collective actors包括：lfirm networkslOrganizationslgroups of friendsl采納的創(chuàng)新lmultinational enterprise (MNE) strategy by mature motor vehicle industr

26、ieslthe style of management of newly merged industrial unitslstrategies of violence adopted by youth gang members Individual actorsl成員是否采納創(chuàng)新很大程度上取決于, such as the community ties and face-to-face interactions that facilitates interpersonal interactions between the characteristics of an innovation and

27、the needs of an actor創(chuàng)新者特征之二：創(chuàng)新者特征之二：Familiarity with the innovationlthe rate of adoption of an innovationall other factors being equalincreases as its novelty decreases (Greve 1998)l提高創(chuàng)新熟悉度的方法lmedia informationlthe opinion of expertslobserving the outcomes of other actorslinformation obtained from

28、close peers located in social and organizational networks創(chuàng)新者特征之三：Status characteristicslCollective actors with high status usually adopt an innovation first and then impose adoption of the innovation on lower status actorslLow economic status of third world countries dramatically slowed the worldwid

29、e diffusion of modern agricultural practiceslHigh-status collective actors can also affect individual adoptions: 例如發(fā)展中國家，政府對那些采用新的農(nóng)業(yè)技術(shù)的農(nóng)民提供補(bǔ)貼創(chuàng)新者特征之三：Status characteristicslThe predictive power of an individual actors status on adoption of an innovation varies positively with lWeimann & Brosius (1994

30、) argued that an actors interact with because media mainly affect high-status members who identify innovations and then spread them within a group of lower-status members創(chuàng)新者特征之四：創(chuàng)新者特征之四：socioeconomic characteristicslTwo categories of socioeconomic variableslEconomiclSociodemographiclIndividual actor

31、 variableslEducation levellEconomic well-beinglCosmopolitanism 創(chuàng)新者特征之四：創(chuàng)新者特征之四：socioeconomic characteristicslVariables of collective actorslDegree of technological advancementlGNPlLevel of development (developed vs. developing countries)lFinancial resourceslCentrally planned versus market economiesl

32、Political systemlLabor market practice創(chuàng)新者特征之五：創(chuàng)新者特征之五：position in social networksl(a) interpersonal networks for individual actorsl(b) organizational networks for collective actorsl(c) structural equivalence of individual and collective actorsl(d) social density(a) Interpersonal networks for individ

33、ual actors between individuals significantly accounted for of a variety of innovationslAdoption by some actors has on the adoption decisions of other actors in the social networklAdoption is better accounted for as , where exposure to an innovation through a network of peers has a cumulatively incre

34、asing influence on adoption as builds and as decrease(b) Organizational networks for collective actorslSwan & Newell (1995) argued that the was the single most influential variable in determining lChaves (1996) indicated that the existence of almost doubled the probability of 組織網(wǎng)絡(luò)如何影響采納組織網(wǎng)絡(luò)如何影響采納，by

35、 which members learn of the newest industrial developments, facilitating contact with former adopters, providing professional advising on new developments, using explicit or implicit rewards or negative contingencies to produce conformity and compliance with respect to adoptive behavior, providing s

36、tandard, uniform models of correct decisions(c) Structural equivalence of individual and collective actorslStructural equivalence of members in a network 是指 an actors in a social and/or organizational network, particularly of comparable economic and social statusl這一因素 modulates adoption of innovatio

37、ns because it affects 個人的結(jié)構(gòu)對等決定因素個人的結(jié)構(gòu)對等決定因素lFor individuals, structural equivalence is determined byl(a) demographic factors such as sex, age, race, ethnicity, marital status, and educationl(b) social indicators like education and occupationl(c) culture, such as similarity of language, cultural tra

38、dition, religion, self-identity, values, and norms集體的結(jié)構(gòu)對等決定因素集體的結(jié)構(gòu)對等決定因素l(a) economic factorslevel of wealth or economic system l(b) cultural factors such as historical backgroundl(c) behavioral factors, e.g., similarities of action or strategy 結(jié)構(gòu)對等在創(chuàng)新采納上的解釋力結(jié)構(gòu)對等在創(chuàng)新采納上的解釋力lAbbott & DeViney (1992) de

39、monstrated that the between states contributed more thanas much as all other selected variables to the predictability of lStructural equivalence may facilitate adoption by activating actor (d) Social density（社會濃度（社會濃度/密密度）度）lSocial density refers to the density of existing adoptions within an organi

40、zation, where the greater , the less the of adopting by non-adopterslHowever, as Hannan & Freeman (1987) argued, the cumulative number of adoptions within an organization, or within a unit of an organization, promotes new adoptions up to of exhaustion of resources, after which the adoption rate decr

41、eases (Hannan&Freeman 1987)創(chuàng)新者特征之六：創(chuàng)新者特征之六：personal characteristicsl心理強(qiáng)勢：psychological strengthlPsychologically strong actors select the most important innovations from the abundance of information covered by the media, rapidly adopt those innovations, and using their own social networks, create a p

42、ublic agenda that significantly promotes adoptionl個人特征的影響因素：社會文化/例如美國文化與日本文化的差異11.4 環(huán)境情境環(huán)境情境 Environmental contextl(a) geographic settingsl(b) societal culturel(c) political conditionsl(d) globalization and uniformity(a) geographic settings地理因地理因素素lGeographical settings affect adoption by influencin

43、g of the innovation lClimatelWeatherlsoil conditionsl and by ：an automatic spread of innovations between individual actors who are in close geographical contiguity, such as within rural or urban communities or counties located within the same geographical regionb) societal culture社會文化社會文化l信仰體系Belief

44、 systems (values, norms, language, religion, ideologies) (innovations conflicting with cultural norms are adopted only by a relatively small percentage of individual actors who are potential adopters)l文化傳統(tǒng)主義 cultural traditionalism ( in adopting new practices and ideas, adversely affecting a countrys adoption of technological developments and extending the time between early and late adoptions)b) societal culture社會文化社會文化l文化同質(zhì)化 (the degree of of a countrys population may be to because it inc