工商管理專業(yè)雙語教學示范

1、工商管理專業(yè)雙語教學示范系列課程申報材料（四）系列課程3 技術經濟學 教學實踐指導書中國地質大學（武漢）2007年9月技術經濟學教學實踐指導書 一、實踐教學指導書1、指導思想與目的建立系統(tǒng)的技術經濟學課程實踐教學體系，必須以中共中央國務院關于深化教育改革全面推進素質教育的決定、面向21世紀教育振興行動計劃等精神為指導，運用現代教學思想與理念，遵照本課程教學理念，突出課程應用性和實踐性強的特點，激發(fā)學生對實際技術經濟問題的興趣，且能運用所學的基本理論與方法來分析、解決問題的能力和潛質，以深化理解和掌握課程的理論知識體系，提高學生技術經濟分析的綜合技能，培養(yǎng)其開拓創(chuàng)新能力與協(xié)作精神。2、實踐內容根

2、據課程教學大綱，按照各個章節(jié)的知識點，進行系統(tǒng)設計和整體優(yōu)化。針對技術經濟學課程知識體系特點，本課程的實踐教學內容主要分為三個類型：（1） 基本概念與基本理論（2） 基本分析方法：（3） 綜合問題或者帶有專題探索性知識點3、實踐教學方式與途徑本課程實踐教學以“認識觀察分析總結”的為基本方針，通過課程知識點的“點線面”的有機融合和貫通，以達到培養(yǎng)學生獨立、綜合分析和解決實際問題的能力的培養(yǎng)和提高。經過課程團隊教師的不斷的摸索、總結、完善，目前已形成了包括基于項目或者工程層面的基本分析方法的訓練與信息技術方法運用；基于綜合性案例的技術經濟評價與決策模擬；基于團隊小組的項目設計與實施演練；基于產學研

3、基地的實地調查和前沿專題綜合性研究等多樣化的實踐教學方式，以適用不同教學知識點的實踐要求和目的。 二、實踐教學的代表性實例EXAMPLE 1:1. GOALS: Recognising the economic analysis of multiple alternatives by using the PV method. 2. MATERIALS: A city has decided to set up a bus transportation system. In 10 years the city council plans to sell the bus company to pr

4、ivate interests. Four plans have been proposed for the system, involving four different schedules of cost, resale value, and net revenue. In view of the risk involved, the city council has decided that it must have a 15 percent return on its investment with no consideration given to income taxes. In

5、flation effects will be ignored. The four plans are follows:Plan APlan BPlan CPlan DFirst cost140163190220Estimated resale value125138155175Excess of annual revenues over annual disbursements24283138Which plan of development, if any, should the city select?3. SOUTION:Figure 2 shows the four plans. A

6、n incremental present-worth analysis is undertaken first. Following the flowchart of Fig. 1, we check the order of the alternatives and discover that they are already in correct order from lowest to highest first cost.10175382201 Is the existing situation (0) an alternative? It is, because the phras

7、e if any appears in the example statement.Order alternatives.Is existingSituation an alternative?Is first alternative better than existing situation?YFirst alternative becomes defender.Existing situation becomes defender.Is next alternative (challenger) better than defender?Defender exits.Challenger

8、 becomes defender.Any more alternatives?Defender wins.Stop.Challenger exits.Defender remains defender.YNNYYNFIGURE 1 Decision flowchart for incremental analysis of multiple alternatives1401012524A 10138281631B10155311901C10175382201DFIGURE 2 A city bus systemIs the first alternative better than the

9、existing situation? To answer this question, we calculate the net present value (NPV) of the first alternative, which is A. This is the same as calculating the incremental net present value of A against 0, the null alternative.NPVA=-140+24(P/A,15,10)+125(P/F,15,10)=-140+24(5.019)+125(0.2472)=+11.4Th

10、us alternative A is preferred to doing nothing about the present situation. Notice that the phrase better than of the flowchart has been interpreted in terms of positive net present value.The answer yes moves us to the next box. The first alternative becomes the defender. Defender and challenger are

11、 common terms in multiple-alternative analysis. The process lends itself to the analogy of the prizefighting ring where a defending champion takes on all challengers. If the defender is defeated by a challenger, the challenger becomes the defender against subsequent challengers.Is the next alternati

12、ve, B, better than the defender? Incremental analysis requires us to take the difference between B and A. Remember the rule of the earliest portion of this book: Only the differences among alternatives are relevant to a comparison among them. Figure 9.3 shows the incremental cash flow B-A. Therefore

13、,NPVB-A=-23+4(P/A,15,10)+13(P/F,15,10)=+0.3This means that B is better than A because the NPV is positive. Remember that the magnitude does not matter-only whether the NPV is plus or minus. The answer to the question of this box is yes.Moving to the next box, we see that defender A exits from the pr

14、oblem and previous challenger B is now the defender.Are there any more alternatives? Yes. We move back to the question, Is the next alternative (challenger) C better than the defender B? We must now evaluate the incremental cash flow C-B.NPVC-B=-27+3(P/A,15,10)+17(P/F,15,10)=-7.7The minus sign indic

15、ates that the increment of investment from B to C is not justified. This time the answer to the question is no. The reply leads us to the box requesting that challenger C exit. Defender B remains the defender. We are returned to the question, Any more alternatives? Yes, there is one more. Is the nex

16、t alternative D better than defender B？ Figure 9.3 illustrates the differential cash flow D-B. EvaluatingNPVD-B=-57+10(P/A,15,10)+37(P/F,15,10)=+2.3Shows a clear victory for D, and the answer is yes.We are led to “Defender exits, challenger becomes defender.” And from there to “Any more altrnatives?

17、” This time the answer is no, and this leads us to the box “Defender wins.” The last defender is D, which is the alternative selected.We have already seen in Chap. 5 on present worth that we may analyze the alternatives individually and then compare them by choosing the alternative with the greatest

18、 present worth. This is also an incremental analysis because we are comparing by differences. The logic is the same as that used in the previous analysis, but the increment appears at a different place in the analysis.AB-AC-B10134231101732711037105711401012524D-BFIGURE3 Incremental analysis of a cit

19、y bus systemTaking the net present value of each of the plans as seen in Fig. 9.2 gives NPVA=-140+24(P/A,15,10)+125(P/F,15,10)=+11.4NPVB=-163+28(P/A,15,10)+138(P/F,15,10)=+11.6NPVC=-190+31(P/A,15,10)+155(P/F,15,10)=+3.9NPVD=-220+38(P/A,15,10)+175(P/F,15,10)=+14.0The choice is D, confirming the incre

20、mental analysis. Notice that the increments are also confirmed, within a rounding error:NPVB-A=+0.2 NPVC-B=-7.7 NPVD-B=+2.4EXAMPLE 2:1. GOALS: Under the signification of sensitivity. the sensitivity of the decision to one of the input variables involved means that at some value of that variable the

21、decision will reverse. 2. MATERIALS: A commercial building is being considered as a real estate venture by an investor. The venture will be analyzed under the following conditions, thought to be most likely:Cost740,000Taxes on sale, legal frees, escrow fees50,000Mortgage9.5 percent nominal, compound

22、ed monthly for 30 yearsDown payment10 percentRent 4,750 per monthProperty taxes12,000 per yearFire insurance1,240 per yearRepairs and maintenanceRental agents commission at 9 percent6,000 per year5,130 per yearVacancy rate 5 percentInvestment period8 yearsOpportunity cost of capital15 percentThe mos

23、t likely estimate of what will happen if the property is purchased is as follows;The property will appreciate in value at 10 percent per year based on its original cost at year 0, as a result of inflation.Operating costs will rise, also as a result of inflation, by 5 percent per year based on the fi

24、rst-year estimates. Included under operating costs areProperty taxesFire insuranceRepairs and maintenanceAgents commission Income, i.e., rents, will rise by 5 percent per year, based on the first-year estimates.A 32.5 percent tax bracket, made up of 25 percent federal tax, 5 percent state tax, and 2

25、.5 percent local tax, will be assumed.A real estate commission on the sale of the property of only 1 percent will be paid, because the investor expects to sell the property himself.Fifty percent of capital gains will be taxed as ordinary income.(a) What rate of return, after income tax, will be real

26、ized on the venture?(b)How sensitive is the rate of return to the input variables? To which variables is the rate of return most sensitive?(c) Based on parts (a) and (b) , what should the investor do?3. SOUTION:(a) Table 18.1 shows the computations for determining the after-tax cash flow for the mos

27、t likely estimate of what happen.Column 1 is the estimated cost of the venture, led by, at year 0, the cash flow of 10 percent down payment 74,000Settlement fees 50,000124,000The first-year cost is Property taxes 12,000Fire insuranc 1,240Repairs and maintenance 6,000Rental agents commission(0.09)(4,

28、750)(12) 5,13024,370Increased by 5 percent per year, the remainder of the column appears. The auxiliary eighth year is reserved for the capital gains computation.Column 2 is the revenue per year. The first years revenue is (4,750)(12)(1.00-0.05)= 54,150The 0.05 is the 5 percent vacancy rate. Year 2

29、is computed by(54,150)(1.05)= 56,860And so on.Year(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)CostRevenueMortgageDepreciationTaxableincomeTax(at-0.325)ATCFAIPR(1+2+4+7)(8)×-0.325(1+2+3+9)0-124,000666,000-124,0001-24,370+54,150-70,200-66,070-4,130661,870-20,000-56,290+18,290-22,1302-25,590+5,660-70,200-65,66

30、0-4,540657,320-20,000-54,390+17,680-21,2503-26,870+59,700-70,200-65,210-4,990652,330-20,000-52,380+17,020-20,3504-28,210+62,690-70,200-64,710-5,490646,840-20,000-50,230+16,330-19,3905-29,620+65,820-70,200-64,170-6,030640,810-20,000-47,970+15,590-18,4106-31,100+69,110-70,200-63,570-6,630634,180-20,00

31、0-45,560+14,810-17,3807-32,660+72,570-70,200-62,910-7,290636,890-20,000-43,000+13,980-16,3108-34,290+76,190-70,200-62,190-8,010618,880-20,000-40,290+13,100-15,20081,586,260-152,820+798,700*The figures in this table will not exactly match Table1 of the bood diskette because of rounding differences.Sh

32、own at the foot of column2.Columns 3,4,5, and 6 show the costs related to the mortgage. These costs are included because they are associated with the loan for the particular property under consideration. No other opportunity for the use of these funds exists because they may not be used for any othe

33、r purpose than the purchase of a specific property. If mortgage payments are not made on time, the property is forfeit. When the property is sold, the loan must be paid off. The property is collateral for the mortgage.Column 3 is the yearly loan payment, which will be paid montyly. The equivalent ye

34、arly payment isiy=(1+iM)M-1 =(1+)12-1 =9.92%A=(740,000-74,000)(A/P,9.92,30) =(666,000)(0.10541) =70,200 annuallyColumn 4 is the interest portion of the payment:(666,000)(0.0992)=66,070The remainder of column 4 and columns 5 and 6 are computed as explained in Chap.4 in the “Separation of Interest and

35、 Principal” section. The bottom line of column 6 is the remaining balance of the loan at the end of the eighth year.The depreciation, column 7, is computed on the basis of a 140,000 value for the land and 600,000 for the building. Only the building may be depreciated. A special ruling of the IRS ass

36、igns a life of 30 years and a zero salvage value to the building. The annual depreciation is 20,000It is now possible to compute taxable income, column 8. it is the algebraic sum of columns 1,2,4, and 7.Income tax at 32.5 percent is the product of column 8 and -0.325. the result is positive for 8 ye

37、ars, indicating tax relief.The after-tax cash flow(ATCF) is obtained by adding columns 1,2,3, and 9.Capital gains are calcuated as follows:Sale price1,586,260Less sale expense-15,8601,570,400From this the basis of the property must be subtracted. The basis is the acquisition price less the accumulat

38、ed depreciation:Acquisition price740,000Plus acquisition expenses+50,000790,000Less accumulated depreciation -160,000630,000The capital gain is 1,570,400Less -630,000 940,400Only 50 percent of this is taxable:940,000×0.50=470,200And it is taxed at 32.5 percent:470,000×0.325=152,820The afte

39、r-tax cash flow isSale price 1,586,260Less sale expense -15,8601,570,400Lesscapital gains tax -152,8201,417,580Less remaining balance -618,880 798,700 This last figure is shown at the bottom of column 10. The internal rate of return of the after-tax cash flow is 19 percent. This is greater than the

40、opportunity cost of capital of 15 percent, and therefore the project is acceptable under the most likely conditions.(b) But what will happen to the internal rate of retum, and thus the decision, if one or more of the input variables happen to change? And how much of a change will be needed to change

41、 the decision? Moreover, which input variables will cause the greatest change? Put another way, which input variables must be examined with great care, and which may be treated cursorily? We now attempt to answer these questions. Let us begin by varying the appreciation rate from a 10 percent rise t

42、o a 5 percent. Holding all other variables constant, how will the IROR change as a result of a 5 percent rise annuaily over 8 years? Substitute a new sale price in the before-tax cash flow of740,000(F/P,5,8)=740,000(1.4775) =1,093,350The same calculation as before is performed, summarized below: 1,0

43、93,350 Less -10,930 1,082,420750,000 Plus +50,000790,000Less -160,000-630,000 452,420452,420×0.50×0.325=73,520 1,093,350Less -10,9301,082,420Less -73,5201,008,900Less -618,880390,020The IROR is 6 percent. This is a severe change from 19 percent, calculated under the most likely conditions.

44、 It reverses the decision. Evidently we must proceed in an orderly fashion if we wish to maximize the benefit we will receive from the sensitivity analysis we have begun.It appears that a computer program that will allow us to substitute whatever input variables we like and observe the resulting cha

45、nge in the IROR would be a great help. Example 18.3 is treated in this way in App. A, page 471, and in the book diskette. You may perform sensitivity analysis yourself on a personal computer, using the book diskette.Now we can proceed to change input variables and calculate the figure of merit, the

46、IROR. Table 18.2 shows a number of changes in the input variables, selected at random. Figure 18.3, sometimes called a spiderplot, reveals the effect on the IROR of changes in the input variables. The greater the slope of the graph of the percentage changes in the input variable plotted against the

47、IROR, the more sensitive is the IROR, and thus the decision, to changes in the input variable. For example, the appreciation rate graph has a slope much greater in absolute value than the taxable portion of capital gains graph. The appreciation rate is a variable that will require much more care in

48、its prediction than the taxable portion of capital gains.TABLE 2 Sensitivity analysisAnalysisnumberItem changedPercentage change from most likely estimateIROR(percent)1None0192Appreciation rate=5 percent-5063Appreciation rate =0 percent-100-214Loan period=25 years-17185Loan period=20 years-33186Taxa

49、ble portion of capital gains=30 percent-40207Taxable portion of capital gains=40 percent-20198Taxable portion of capital gains=100 percent+10015Loan period+20+100-10-20-30Taxable portionof capital gainsIROR(%)-100 -50 0 50 100Percentage change from most likely estimateFIGURE 3 Sensitivity graph(c) T

50、he foregoing analysis reveals that the answer to the question as to the investors course of action is a complicated one. If the investor accepts the most likely estimate as valid, then the investors opportunity cost of capital at the same risk should be compared to 19 percent. If it is less than 19

51、percent, the investor should accept the project; if it is greater, the investor should reject the project.But if the investor does only this, if the investor includes only the opportunity cost of capital in the decision, what is the point of the sensitivity analysis? It has shown that of the three v

52、ariables considered-appreciation, loan period, and the taxable portion of capital gains-the first of these is the most important by far. Therefore a good deal more time should be spent investigating the appreciation of the property. What has been the history of property values in the same area? What

53、 is the city planning for the area? What has happened to similar properties in other cities? These questions and perhaps many others should be asked and answered before a decision is made.And what about the remaining input variables? We still have not answered the question, How are we to choose whic

54、h input variables to investigate? So far, the answer is to ask persons with a great deal of experience in the business being investigated. Another answer is, with the aid of a computer, to look into all of ProblemsBreak-even analvsis10.1 The estimated cost of a completely installed and ready-to-operate 40-kilowatt generator is 30,000. Its annual maintenance costs are estimated at 500. The energy that can be generated annually, at full load, is estimated to be 100,000 kilowatt-hours. If the value of the ener