atk中遠(yuǎn)項(xiàng)目建議書(shū)ppt課件

1、July, 2001COSCO IPO SUPPORT MATERIALSLogistics Services Industry Environment & Trend Analysis- COSCO Comments and A.T. Kearney RemarksThe contents of this document were prepared by A.T. Kearney and may not be used, altered or disclosed to other parties, without the written permission of A.T. Kearney

2、. The information contained in this document has been obtained from external sources which A.T. Kearney believes are reliable. However, A.T. Kearney can make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or projections derived therefrom.Table of ContentsExecutive SummaryMar

3、ket Size & GrowthGlobalChinaService DemandGlobal TrendsChina TrendsCompetitive EnvironmentGlobalChinaRegulatory EnvironmentInformation TechnologyAppendixExecutive SummaryA.T. Kearneys definition of the logistics services industryStructuring and managing, on behalf of cargo owners, solutions involvin

4、g some combination of parts of the supply chain (i.e. transportation, warehousing, (de)consolidation, etc.)The logistics service industry represent a tremendous growth opportunity, both globally and in ChinaMarket CharacteristicConclusionCustomers are increasingly demanding high value logistics serv

5、ice solutions, requiring global reach and advanced supply chain management capabilitiesIncreasing demand for global reach and capabilities fuels consolidation as large full service providers are positioning themselves for successChinas entry into WTO is expected to have two main implications - the l

6、ogistics market will grow rapidly, and competitive intensity will dramatically increaseStrong IT capabilities is becoming a core capability of logistics services providers and is critical to building a logistics services businessMarket Size & GrowthService DemandCompetitive EnvironmentRegulatory Env

7、ironmentInformationTechnologySource: A.T. KearneyThe global logistics services market reached an estimated US$ 190 Bn in 2000. The China market is still small at US$ 0.61 Bn, but will be growing rapidly at CAGR 35% over the next five yearsThe China logistics industry will be shaped by Chinas entry i

8、nto the WTO and the subsequent opening of the market to foreign competitionIndustry Scenario 2006Rapid increase in M&A activitiesKey alliances formed within the next 2-3 yearsRapid expansion of global players offering sophisticated end-to-end solution, including logistics, transportation and ITImple

9、mentation of e-commerce initiatives and increasing dependence on IT networkMergers, Acquisitions and AlliancesGlobal CompetitorsTechnologyThe logistics market will grow rapidlyCompetitive intensity will dramatically increaseWTO EntrySource: A.T. Kearney 1. Market Size & GrowthThe global logistics se

10、rvices market reached an estimated US$ 190 Bn in 2000The global logistics outsourcing market is estimated to US$ 190 Bn in 2000The transportation and related expenditures market reached an estimated US$ 3.8 Trillion in 2000, and is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.3% over the next 5 yearsThe

11、Asian logistics outsourcing market is estimated to reach US$ 31 Bn in 2001 and is expected to grow at CAGR 39% over the next five yearsThe greatest opportunities for outsourcing are in transport, warehousing, and transport managementThe growth of the global logistics services industry is mainly driv

12、en by shippers propensity to outsource logistics services and organic transportation market growthCustomer electronics, automotive and apparel represent the most attractive opportunities for logistics services in ChinaThe China market is still small at US$ 0.61 Bn, but will be growing rapidly at CAG

13、R 35% over the next five yearsThe China logistics services market is still small at US$ 0.61 Bn, but will be growing rapidly over the next 5 years The logistics services industry is still at an early stage of evolution in ChinaThe transportation and related expenditures are proportionately higher in

14、 China than in most developed countries and NIEs - indicating a major improvement opportunityIn Coastal China, demand for logistics services is expected to be strong in Guangdong and ShanghaiIn Inland China, the largest demand potential is in Sichuan and the Hubei/Yangtze river regionGrowth in the l

15、ogistics services industry in China will mainly be driven by continued macro economic growth and increased propensity to outsource logisticsFavorable macro economic outlookPublic policy and spendingIncreasing interest in outsourcing for logistics needsGrowing IT and E-businessMarket Size & Growth -

16、GlobalThe global logistics outsourcing market is estimated to US$ 190 Bn in 2000Source: Chinainfobank, CSFB, A.T. KearneyGlobal Transportation and Logistics Market Size (2000)Transportation and related activities handled by manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers themselves(e.g. private fleet, private

17、 warehousing)Discrete sets of transportation and related services outsourced by manufacturers, wholesalers, retailers(e.g. public warehousing etc.)Combination of “transportation and related services provisioned by 3rd party logistics service providersUS$ 3,800 BnOutsourcedUS$190 BnGlobal transportat

18、ion and related expendituresGlobal outsourced transportation and related servicesGlobal logistics outsourcing marketUS$ BnThe transportation and related expenditures market reached an estimated US$ 3.8 Trillion in 2000, and is expected to grow at an annual rate of 2.3% over the next 5 yearsNote: (1)

19、 Asia includes Japan, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and TaiwanSource: Bowersox and Calantone; CSFB; A.T. Kearney AnalysisTransportation and Related Expenditures by Region (2000)Transportation and Related Expenditures by Function (2000)US$ BnTotal = US$ 3,837 BnOthers: -1.4%Asia(1): 2.2%Europe: 2.6%Nor

20、th America: 4.0%3,4243,8374,389CAGR=2.3%CAGR=2.8%Warehousing$304 BnTransport$2,204 BnOthers$55 BnShipper-Related$20 BnInventory$1,102 BnAdmin$152 BnCAGR 2000-2006The Asian logistics outsourcing market is estimated to reach US$ 31 Bn in 2001 and is expected to grow at CAGR 39% over the next five year

21、sNote:Asia includes China, Japan, Honk Kong, Korea, Singapore and TaiwanSource:Bowersox and Calantone; CSFB; A.T. Kearney AnalysisLogistics Outsourcing Market in Asia - Gross Revenue(US$ Bn)CAGR (99-01) = 38%CAGR (01-06) = 39%The greatest opportunities for outsourcing are in transport, warehousing,

22、and transport managementTransportWarehousingTransportManagementITSupplementaryLogistic ServicesPurchase OrderManagementLogisticsManagement30%47%48%85%20%40%39%76%23%2%5%16% of respondents outsourcing 1998% of respondents planed outsourcing 200313%8%Outsourcing by FunctionResourcerequire-mentsComplex

23、ityNote:The percentage may not add up to 100% due to rounding Source: Based on several A.T. Kearney studies, including:Worldwide study comprising 280 participants (automotive 19%, electronics 25%, retail 27%, chemicals 29%)European study comprising 500 participants (retail 26%, food & beverage 26%,

24、commodities 22%, machinery 12%, automotive 7%, electronics & high-tech 4%) Outsourcing of non-core business activitiesOrganic growth of transportation marketsIncreased complexity of global supply chainsRecognition by many shippers that supply chain strategy may be a key competitive advantageWillingn

25、ess to outsource when logistics not seen as core competencyDevelopment of superior logistics capability by a few 3PLsGrowth in demand for transportation services expands with international trade growthGlobalization of many industries means goods need to move over longer distances at faster speeds wi

26、th higher reliabilityGrowth in Logistics ServicesSource: UBS Warburg, IDCGrowth DriversDetails12 The growth of the global logistics services industry is mainly driven by shippers propensity to outsource logistics services and organic transportation market growthConsumer electronics, automotive and a

27、pparel represent the most attractive opportunities for logistics services in ChinaNote: 1. Size of circle relative to segment size in 2000 2. Analysis is indicative onlySource: A.T. Kearney field interviews and researchHighLowGrowth (2001-2006)RemarksHighly market-oriented, need quick response to co

28、nsumer feedbackManufacturers have to to improve operation efficiency continuously due to intense competition Relatively high product value and less price sensitiveHigh requirement for timing and reliability of liners High gross margin industry, production cost and logistics account for less percenta

29、ge of salesPrefer timely feedback from destination ports, i.e.trade consulting servicesAutomotive supplies involve over 30,000 parts, which need consolidating suppliers to handle logisticsIntense competition drives companies to reduce cost, current inefficiency in self-handling leads companies to co

30、nsider outsourcing services activelyHigh value products, not very price sensitive, but sometimes decisions are made overseasPacking requirement involves technical difficulties, unwilling to outsource logistics servicesHigh profit industry, not very price sensitiveHigh quality requirement for dry, no

31、 smell, no leaking containers, hence containerized in factoryClearance of cigarettes needs to be done by professional I/E companies or manufacturesLarge and special shape, therefore the way to put them into containers can impact the number of containers to be used, which directly related to cost - u

32、sually done in-houseCost sensitive, firms usually choose less busy season to get cheaper pricesFrozen products and fresh products need to be handled fast with care Other products are low-value and need no special servicesLow value products, highly price sensitiveLower quality requirement, usually co

33、ntainerized at portsConsumer ElectronicsApparelAutomotiveMachineryTobacco & LiquorFurniturePrimary GoodsChemicals&MaterialsIndustryLowHighConsumer ElectronicsApparelAutomotiveOutsourcing PropensityTobacco, LiquorPrimaryGoodsOpportunity Assessment by IndustryChemicals &MaterialsFurnitureMachineryAdd

34、market and trends analysis by industryMarket Size & Growth - ChinaThe China logistics services market is still small at US$ 0.61 Bn, but will be growing rapidly over the next 5 yearsLogistics Outsourcing Market - Gross Revenue (2000, US$ Bn)Note:Asia includes China, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore and T

35、aiwanSource:Bowersox and Calantone; CSFB; A.T. Kearney EstimatesCAGR=35%190230.61China Logistics Service Market (US$, Bn)The logistics services industry is still at an early stage of evolution in ChinaCharacteristicsEmerging demand for outsourced logistics services Low value added services such as t

36、ransport and warehousing are the major type of services outsourcedTraditional in-house behaviour being impactedFast growth of logistics user base and higher requirement for broader servicesLarge number of services providers competing for customers and human resourcesMost high value added services ar

37、e free and provided as selling pointsLogistics outsourcing becomes common practice and an important lever for competitionConsolidated service market with a few established market leadersLogistics penetrate in supply chain and replace traditional business modelsGlobal logistics integrators provide on

38、e-stop solution worldwideSpecialization and close cooperation among global logistics service providersOptimized allocation and integration of resources along the supply chainStageEmergenceGrowthPenetrationGlobalizationWorld Leading(US)China TodaySource: A.T. Kearney Warehousing and DistributionTruck

39、ingRail FreightAlthough Heavily Used, Railway Freight Has Long Transit Times and Service Reliability Is PoorRailway Containers Are Not Compatible With Shipping Company ContainersAirlineCustoms BrokerageCourierLimited Presence of Foreign Firms As JV E.G. DHL Sinotrans Regional Segregation in Operatio

40、nLogistics Center and Freight ForwardingShippingThe domestic warehousing market is currently small and over-supplied with basic warehouses providing virtually no value-added services Some consolidation just started among the large warehousing companies River transportation has declinedMost vessels a

41、re characterized by low speed and high energy costsTrucking companies are only allowed to operate in restricted regionsGovernment has established 15 Free Trade Zones and some logistics centers are set up there Inland transportation is handled by domestic freight forwarder who is usually sub-contract

42、ed by the international freight forwarder Seven domestic airlines dominate regional operations Designated foreign carriers are given a maximum entitlement of 50 tonnes per weekMany customs clearing brokerage firms and considerable confusion about roles Customs clearing procedures took at least - 1 d

43、ay previously but expected to be shortened to1 hourThe logistics services industry is still at an early stage of evolution in China (continued)Source: A.T. Kearney AnalysisChina Logistics ServicesTransportation and related expenditures are proportionately higher in China than in most developed count

44、ries and NIEs indicating a major improvement opportunityTotal Transportation and Related Expenditures and % of GDP (2000) Note: (1) VAS: Value-added-services(2) Including packaging, admin, information services, ect.Source: Bowersox and Calantone, CSFB, IMF 1997 study; Chinainfobank; A.T. Kearney Ana

45、lysisUS$ BnChina Transportation and Related Expenditures Breakdown by Function (2000)Total = US$ 248 BnUS$ Bn(1)(2)Demand GrowthIn Coastal China, demand for logistics services is expected to be strong in Guangdong and ShanghaiHighLowHebei, , Tianjin4 is the No. 1 air cargo center in China. In additi

46、on, s hi-tech industry, which needs a lot of air transportation, is developing very fastOver 80% of the volume through Tianjin port are agricultural products, furniture, metal hardware and raw materials, all being low value products. In addition, most shippers are in poor financial conditions and ar

47、e very price sensitiveShandong (Qingdao)4Qingdao has several famous local companies, such as Haier, HiSense, Aukma and Qingdao Beer. They are more quality oriented and less price sensitiveFrozen products account for 15-20% of the volume. Quality requirements for frozen products are very high in term

48、s of timing and handling care. Hence, frozen products shippers tend to be less price sensitive and more quality concernedFootwear and garments account for significant portion. Some large customers such as Payless Shoes (No. 1 customer of COSCO in volume) requires accurate shipping time and full rang

49、e of sophisticated 3PL services from P/O management, trade consulting to space booking, warehousing and transportationProvinceLogistics Demand Selected Provinces in Coastal ChinaGuangdongDemand Size5RemarksMajor exports are processing of lower value-added products no special requirement for logistic

50、s quality;Road transportation is convenient, often containerized in factory to reduce cost less need for warehousing/ consolidationElectronics industry is booming in Dongguan, which has some leading companies like Huawei potential large profitable customersStrongWeakShanghai(Jiangsu, Zhejiang)5Shang

51、hai is the fast growing economic/ financial center in China, which has some major MNCs such as SGM, Acer, Philips, etc. They are matured customers of logistics services and less price sensitive. On the other hand, to get the deals from them usually needs to involve high level negociationLarge compan

52、ies in Shanghai and nearby areas are mainly JVs of automobile and consumer electronics industry, which have high product value and lower price sensitivitySource: A.T. Kearney field interviews and analysisDemand SizeSichuan (Chengdu)Have the 3rd largest distribution center in China, the largest popul

53、ation, and important heavy industry baseThe logistics industry there has already attracted interest of foreign large shippers like Ikea and investors including Hutchison WhampoaLocated in mountain areas, road transport infrastructure is inconvenient, so highly relying on rail transportChongqing2Agri

54、cultural products, metal products and motor cycles, which totally account for over 80% of the export volume, are all low-value products, price sensitive and have flat growthUnderdeveloped infrastructure, esp. road and rail transportation have limited foreign investments in this region. Cargoes usual

55、ly transported by barges, which is the cheapest modeProvinceIn inland China, the largest demand potential is in Sichuan and the Hubei/Yangtze river regionLogistics Demand Selected Provinces in Inland ChinaYunnan2DemandGrowthRemarksMost important export industry is tobacco, which has high profit marg

56、in, high quality requirement for logistics services, and not very price sensitiveExports for wood, wooden materials and furniture, which accounted for over 30% of export volume before, are largely reduced due to newly imposed government sanction on cutting treesHighLowStrongWeakSource: A.T. Kearney

57、field interviews and analysisHubei, Yangtze River Region3Exports are low-value products including tobacco, cotton, chemicals and steel materialsMany imports are material for JVs (e.g. Citreon and Dongfeng Cummins), of which decisions are usually made overseasMarket is very fragmented and shippers ge

58、nerally have small scale/volume No warehouses/piling centers with modern container handling capacity and advanced IT structure are available, can be a potential development area3Growth in the logistics services industry in China will mainly be driven by continued macro economic growth and increased

59、propensity to outsource logisticsGrowth DriverImplicationThe Chinese economy is expected to grow at CAGR 7% over the next five years. Increased international and domestic trade will drive demand for logistics servicesPublic policy and spending supports improvements in Chinas logistics infrastructure

60、, providing opportunities for further expansion of logistics service providers. Capable foreign service providers are limited in business scope by regulation, and their full entry after WTO will drive the industry toward international best practicesThere is increasing interest among China-based ente