創(chuàng)新展望：可再生甲醇

1、CONTENTS HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 KEY FINDINGS 4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 CONTENTS 6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 ABBREVIATIONS 11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS 12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 CURRENT PRODUCTION AND APPLICATIONS OF METHANOL 22 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 Methanol as a raw material 2

2、2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 Methanol as a fuel 25 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 Storage, transport and distribution of methanol 29 HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 PRODUCTION PROCESS AND TECHNOLOGY STATUS 32 HYPERLINK l _bookmark30 Low-carbon methanol 33 HYPERLINK l _bookmark31 Renewable methanol 34 HYPERLINK l _boo

3、kmark31 Bio-methanol from biomass and MSW 34 HYPERLINK l _bookmark39 Bio-methanol from biogas 40 HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 Bio-methanol from the pulping cycle in pulp mills 41 HYPERLINK l _bookmark43 Methanol from CO2 (e-methanol) 42 HYPERLINK l _bookmark52 Combination of bio- and e-methanol productio

4、n 50 HYPERLINK l _bookmark57 PERFORMANCE AND SUSTAINABILITY 53 HYPERLINK l _bookmark57 Performance and efficiency 53 HYPERLINK l _bookmark57 Bio-methanol 53 HYPERLINK l _bookmark58 E-methanol 54 HYPERLINK l _bookmark63 Renewable methanol vs alternatives 57 HYPERLINK l _bookmark65 Emissions and susta

5、inability 59 HYPERLINK l _bookmark65 Emissions 59 HYPERLINK l _bookmark67 Sustainability and carbon neutrality 63 HYPERLINK l _bookmark70 CURRENT COSTS AND COST PROJECTIONS 65 HYPERLINK l _bookmark70 Bio-methanol costs 65 HYPERLINK l _bookmark70 Methanol production from biomass and MSW via gasificat

6、ion 65 HYPERLINK l _bookmark85 Methanol production from biogas 73 HYPERLINK l _bookmark90 Methanol as by-product from wood pulping 75 HYPERLINK l _bookmark93 E-methanol costs 76 HYPERLINK l _bookmark93 E-methanol production costs A literature review 76 HYPERLINK l _bookmark104 Summary of renewable m

7、ethanol costs today and in the future 84 HYPERLINK l _bookmark108 POTENTIAL AND BARRIERS 87 HYPERLINK l _bookmark108 Demand 87 HYPERLINK l _bookmark114 Sustainable feedstock 90 HYPERLINK l _bookmark114 Biomass 90 HYPERLINK l _bookmark114 CO2 and hydrogen 90 HYPERLINK l _bookmark115 Impact of renewab

8、le methanol on the energy sector 91 HYPERLINK l _bookmark115 Drivers 91 HYPERLINK l _bookmark116 Barriers 92 HYPERLINK l _bookmark116 Bio-methanol 92 HYPERLINK l _bookmark117 E-methanol 93 HYPERLINK l _bookmark118 Policies and recommendations 94 HYPERLINK l _bookmark121 REFERENCES AND FURTHER INFORM

9、ATION 99 HYPERLINK l _bookmark122 ANNEXES 110 HYPERLINK l _bookmark122 Annex 1. Some of the pros and cons of methanol and renewable methanol 110 HYPERLINK l _bookmark123 Annex 2. Overview of major methanol production processes from various carbon sources 116 HYPERLINK l _bookmark124 Annex 3. Compari

10、son of renewable methanol with other fuels on a price per unit HYPERLINK l _bookmark124 of energy basis 117 HYPERLINK l _bookmark125 Annex 4. Overview of existing or planned facilities and technology providers for HYPERLINK l _bookmark125 e-methanol and bio-methanol production 118Figures HYPERLINK l

11、 _bookmark2 Figure 1.Global methanol demand and production capacity (2001-2019) 12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Figure 2.Principal methanol production routes 13 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Figure 3.Current and future production costs of bio- and e-methanol 15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Figure 4.Comparison of renew

12、able methanol with other fuels on a price HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 per unit of energy basis 16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 Figure 5.Global methanol demand in 2019 17 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Figure 6.The feedstocks and applications of methanol 23 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 Figure 7.Global methanol demand and p

13、roduction capacity (2001-2019) 24 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 Figure 8.Historical methanol sale price (1995-2020) 24 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 Figure 9.Fleet of M100 fuelled taxis in Guiyang City, Guizhou province, China 26 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 Figure 10. Geely M100 truck (2019) in China and M100 truck

14、 in Israel (2020) 26 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 Figure 11.Gumpert Nathalie, methanol-fuelled hybrid fuel cell supercar 27 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 Figure 12.Palcan hybrid methanol reformer/proton-exchange HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 membrane fuel cell passenger bus in China 27 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 Figure

15、 13.Methanol-powered Stena Germanica 50 000 DWT ferry HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 operating between Gothenburg and Kiel 28 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 Figure 14. Ocean-going vessel powered by methanol 29 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 Figure 15.Methanol stations in China 30 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 Figure 16. M15 d

16、ispensing pump alongside gasoline and diesel fuel dispensers HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 at a filling station, and M100 dispensing pump in Israel 30 HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 Figure 17.DME filling station and pump in Shanghai, China in 2008 31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 Figure 18. Bio-DME filling station in

17、Sweden in 2011 31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 Figure 19.Proposed classification of methanol from various feedstocks 32 HYPERLINK l _bookmark32 Figure 20. Gasification-based methanol plant general scheme 35 HYPERLINK l _bookmark38 Figure 21.Enerkems MSW to biofuels (methanol and ethanol) plant in Alberta

18、, Canada 39 HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 Figure 22. Reformer-based methanol plant general scheme 41 HYPERLINK l _bookmark43 Figure 23. Types of hydrogen according to production process 42 HYPERLINK l _bookmark45 Figure 24. Approaches to e-methanol production through electrolysis and HYPERLINK l _bookmark

19、45 electrochemical processes 43 HYPERLINK l _bookmark47 Figure 25. CO2 feedstock for the production of e-methanol 44 HYPERLINK l _bookmark48 Figure 26. The “George Olah Renewable CO2-to-Methanol Plant” of CRI in Iceland 46 HYPERLINK l _bookmark48 Figure 27. 1 000 t/y e-methanol demonstration plant i

20、n Lanzhou, Gansu Province, HYPERLINK l _bookmark48 Northwestern China 46 HYPERLINK l _bookmark53 Figure 28. Combined bio- and e-methanol scheme with biomass or MSW as feedstock 51 HYPERLINK l _bookmark55 Figure 29. Combined bio- and e-methanol scheme with biogas as feedstock 52 HYPERLINK l _bookmark

21、61 Figure 30. Example of estimates for global renewable CO2 availability from different sources HYPERLINK l _bookmark61 by the middle of the 21st century 56 HYPERLINK l _bookmark64 Figure 31.Volumetric energy content of various fuels 58 HYPERLINK l _bookmark67 Figure 32. GHG emissions of methanol pr

22、oduced from various feedstocks (from feedstock HYPERLINK l _bookmark67 extraction to final use, values from Table 11) 63 HYPERLINK l _bookmark68 Figure 33. Anthropogenic carbon cycle for a circular economy 64 HYPERLINK l _bookmark77 Figure 34. Global supply curve for primary biomass, 2030 69 HYPERLI

23、NK l _bookmark83 Figure 35. Estimated costs of bio-methanol up to 2050 72 HYPERLINK l _bookmark85 Figure 36. Potential production cost reduction for bio-methanol from biomass HYPERLINK l _bookmark85 within a 15 to 20 year timeframe 73 HYPERLINK l _bookmark85 Figure 37. Potential production cost redu

24、ction for bio-methanol from MSW HYPERLINK l _bookmark85 within a 15 to 20 year timeframe 73 HYPERLINK l _bookmark88 Figure 38. Production cost for biomethane via gasification and via anaerobic digestion 74 HYPERLINK l _bookmark100 Figure 39. Cost of methanol as a function of hydrogen and CO2 cost 81

25、 HYPERLINK l _bookmark103 Figure 40. Estimated costs of renewable e-methanol up to 2050 depending HYPERLINK l _bookmark103 on the renewable CO2 83 HYPERLINK l _bookmark105 Figure 41. Current and future production costs of bio- and e-methanol 85 HYPERLINK l _bookmark107 Figure 42. Comparison of renew

26、able methanol with other fuels on a price HYPERLINK l _bookmark107 per unit of energy basis 86 HYPERLINK l _bookmark109 Figure 43. Fleet of Geely Emgrand 7 cars operating in Iceland and powered by 100% HYPERLINK l _bookmark109 renewable methanol, in front of the CRI CO2-to-methanol production plant

27、88 HYPERLINK l _bookmark109 Figure 44. Swedish car powered by an M56 mix (56% methanol in gasoline) with HYPERLINK l _bookmark109 bio-methanol from the LTU Green Fuels plant (in the background) 88 HYPERLINK l _bookmark109 Figure 45. Chemrec bioDME pilot plant and Volvo DME-fuelled truck 88 HYPERLINK

28、 l _bookmark109 Figure 46. Passenger ship MS innogy on Lake Baldeney (Germany) powered by a HYPERLINK l _bookmark109 hybrid fuel cell system fuelled by renewable methanol 88 HYPERLINK l _bookmark113 Figure 47. Current and future methanol production by source 89 HYPERLINK l _bookmark119 Figure 48. A

29、hypothetical CFD smoothing returns in a volatile market 96Tables HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Table 1.Pros and cons of methanol and renewable methanol 18 HYPERLINK l _bookmark34 Table 2.Examples of syngas conditioning and cleaning processes 36 HYPERLINK l _bookmark36 Table 3.Gasifier design principles 37

30、HYPERLINK l _bookmark37 Table 4. Gasification technologies and their application 38 HYPERLINK l _bookmark39 Table 5.Methanol plants co-fed with a mix of natural gas and biomethane 40 HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 Table 6. By-product bio-methanol from wood pulping 41 HYPERLINK l _bookmark51 Table 7.Overvie

31、w of existing or planned facilities and technology providers for HYPERLINK l _bookmark51 e-methanol production 47 HYPERLINK l _bookmark57 Table 8.Energy conversion efficiencies for certain process units 53 HYPERLINK l _bookmark59 Table 9.Selection of renewable and non-renewable sources of CO2 55 HYP

32、ERLINK l _bookmark63 Table 10. Comparison of various fuel properties 57 HYPERLINK l _bookmark66 Table 11. GHG emissions of methanol from various sources, ordered by feedstock type 61 HYPERLINK l _bookmark71 Table 12. Capital cost for bio-methanol plants 66 HYPERLINK l _bookmark73 Table 13. Capital c

33、ost for gasification-based plants for other products 67 HYPERLINK l _bookmark75 Table 14. Capital cost element in production cost 68 HYPERLINK l _bookmark77 Table 15. Feedstock cost element in production cost 69 HYPERLINK l _bookmark79 Table 16. OPEX (excluding feedstock) cost element in production

34、cost 70 HYPERLINK l _bookmark81 Table 17. Total production cost for bio-methanol from biomass and MSW 71 HYPERLINK l _bookmark83 Table 18. Total production cost for bio-methanol after potential cost reduction 72 HYPERLINK l _bookmark90 Table 19: Impact of feedstock price in production of methanol fr

35、om methane/biomethane 75 HYPERLINK l _bookmark90 Table 20. Approximate production cost for bio-methanol from wood pulping 75 HYPERLINK l _bookmark94 Table 21. Production costs and production capacity of e-methanol reported in the literature 77 HYPERLINK l _bookmark96 Table 22. Cost of green hydrogen

36、 today and in the futures 79 HYPERLINK l _bookmark98 Table 23. Cost of CO2 from various sources 80 HYPERLINK l _bookmark102 Table 24. Estimated costs of renewable methanol up to 2050 82 HYPERLINK l _bookmark104 Table 25. Capital cost for CO2-to-methanol plants 84ABBREVIATIONSAGRAcid gas removalASUAi

37、r separation unitBECCSBioenergy with carbon capture and storageBECCUBioenergy with carbon capture and useBEVBattery electric vehicleBTXBenzene, toluene and xylenes (aromatics)CAPEXCapital expenditureCCSCarbon capture and storageCCUCarbon capture and useCFDContract for differenceCH3OHMethanolCICarbon

38、 intensityCNGCompressed natural gasCOCarbon monoxideCO2Carbon dioxideCO2-eqCarbon dioxide equivalentCOSCarbonyl sulphideCPPCoal power plantCRICarbon Recycling InternationalDACDirect air captureDMEDimethyl etherDMFCDirect methanol fuel cellDWTDeadweight tonnageECAEmission Control Arease-fuelElectrofu

39、elEUEuropean UnionEVElectric vehicleFCVFuel cell vehicleFEEDFront-end engineering designFFVFlexible fuel vehicle FT fuelsFischer-Tropsch fuels GHGGreenhouse gasH2HydrogenHClHydrogen chlorideHFHydrogen fluorideHFHydrogen fluorideHHVHigher heating valueICEInternal combustion engineIMOInternational Mar

40、itime OrganizationIRRInternal rate of returnLCALife-cycle analysisLCFSLow Carbon Fuel StandardLCMLow-carbon methanolLHVLower heating valueLNGLiquefied natural gasLPGLiquefied petroleum gasMDIMethylenebis (4-phenyl isocyanate)MMAMethyl methacrylate MSWMunicipal solid waste MTBEmethyl tert-butyl ether

41、 MTGMethanol-to-gasolineMTOMethanol-to-olefinsNOxNitrogen oxidesn/kNot knownOMEsOxymethylene ethersOPEXOperating expenditurePEMPolymer electrolyte membranePMParticulate matterPVPhotovoltaicREDRenewable Energy DirectiveRESRenewable energy sourceSGABSub Group on Advanced BiofuelsSNGSynthetic natural g

42、asSOxSulphur oxidesTRLTechnology readiness levelTTWTank-to-wheelUSUnited StatesWGSWater gas shiftWTTWheel-to-tankWTWWheel-to-wheelUNITS OF MEASUREEJExajouleGJGigajouleGtGigatonnekgKilogramkmKilometrekt/yThousand tonnes per yearkWKilowattkWhKilowatt hourLLitreL/dLitres per dayMJMegajouleMtMillion ton

43、nesMtCO2Million tonnes of carbon dioxideMWMegawattMWhMegawatt hourMWtMegawatt thermalm3Cubic metretTonnet/dTonnes per dayt/yTonnes per yearSUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERSMethanol is one of the four critical basic chemicals alongside ethylene, propylene and ammonia used to produce all other chemical produc

44、ts. About two-thirds of methanol is used to produce other chemicals, such as formaldehyde, acetic acid and plastics. Methanol use for the production of polyethylene and polypropylene in particular has grown significantly, going from almost zero ten years ago to 25 Mt in 2019. The remaining methanol

45、is mainly used as a fuel for vehicles, ships, industrial boilers and cooking. Methanols use as a fuel either by itself, as a blend with gasoline, for the production of biodiesel, or in the form of methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) and dimethyl ether (DME) has also grown rapidly since the mid-2000s.Most

46、 methanol is currently produced from natural gas or coal, with estimated annual life-cycle emissions of 0.3 GtCO2, around 10% of the total chemical and petrochemical sectors CO2 emissions. Addressing emissions from methanol production is therefore a key component of the decarbonisation of the chemic

47、al sector and could contribute to the transport sector where the methanol can be used as a fuel.Market status and production processWorldwide annual production of methanol nearly doubled over the past decade to reach about 98 Mt in 2019. A large part of that growth came from China through methanol p

48、roduction from coal. Methanol demand is expected to continue increasing to reach more than 120 Mt by 2025 (MMSA, 2020; Berggren, 2019) and 500 Mt by 2050 in IRENAs Transforming Energy Scenario.Figure 1. Global methanol demand and production capacity (2001-2019)Source: Based on data from MMSA (2020).

49、This is in line with the “well-below 2C” Paris climate goal (Saygin and Gielen, forthcoming). Most of the growth until 2028 is expected to come from the Chinese market, mainly to be used in the production of olefins, with a smaller share for gasoline blending, formaldehyde, acetic acid and MTBE prod

50、uction.Renewable methanolCurrently, methanol is produced almost exclusively from fossil fuels. However, methanol can also be made from other feedstocks that contain carbon, including biomass, biogas, waste streams and CO2 (for example captured from flue gases or through DAC).Renewable methanol can b

51、e produced using renewable energy and renewable feedstocks via two routes:Bio-methanol is produced from biomass. Key potential sustainable biomass feedstocks include: forestry and agricultural waste and by-products, biogas from landfill, sewage, MSW and black liquor from the pulp and paper industry.

52、Green e-methanol is obtained from CO2 captured from renewable sources (e.g. via BECCS or DAC) and green hydrogen, i.e. hydrogen produced with renewable electricity.To qualify as renewable, all feedstocks and energy used to produce the methanol need to be of renewable origin (e.g. biomass, solar, win

53、d, hydro, geothermal). The methanol produced by either route is chemically identical to methanol produced from fossil fuel sources.CO2Non-renewableCarbon capture and storage (CCS)Natural gasSyngasCO2RenewableLow carbon intensityRenewableCO2Non-renewableH2Blue HydrogenCH3OHBlue methanolH2Green hydrog

54、enRenewableNon- renewableElectrolysisRenewable electricityGasification/ reformingBiomassFigure 2. Principal methanol production routesCH3OHGreen methanolBio-methanolBio-e-methanolE-methanolHigh carbon intensitySyngasGasificationCoalCH3OHBrown methanolSyngasReformingCH3OHGrey methanolRenewable CO2: f

55、rom bio-origin and through direct air capture (DAC)Non-renewable CO2: from fossil origin, industryWhile there is not a standard colour code for the different types of methanol production processes; this illustration of various types of methanol according to feedstock and energy sources is an initial

56、 proposition that is meant to be a basis for further discussion with stakeholdersCurrent progress on renewable methanol productionLess than 0.2 Mt of renewable methanol is produced annually, from only a handful of plants. Those renewable- methanol commercial facilities and demonstration projects foc

57、us mainly on using waste and by-product streams from other industrial processes, which offer the best economics at present. Suitable feedstocks include: MSW and low-priced biomass, biogas, waste streams, and black liquor from the pulp and paper industry.For example, a commercial-scale plant producin

58、g bio-methanol from bio-methane is in operation in the Netherlands and a plant producing bio-methanol from MSW is operating in Canada. In Iceland, e-methanol is produced by combining renewable hydrogen and CO2 from a geothermal power plant. The current projects benefit from favourable conditions, su

59、ch as low feedstock cost (e.g. biogas), strong integration with conventional industrial processes (e.g. pulp and paper industry), or very inexpensive renewable electricity (e.g. geothermal and hydro energy in Iceland). Depending on appropriate local conditions, there are other early or niche opportu

60、nities for bio-methanol and e-methanol production (e.g. integrated production with bio-ethanol from sugarcane, co-feeding biomass feedstock and fossil fuels, and co-production of heat, electricity and other chemicals).The co-feeding of renewable feedstock (e.g. biomass, CO2, green hydrogen, renewabl