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1、EverysilverlininghasacloudThesealingofaPacifictradedealiswelcome.ButsparethecheersOct10th2015|FromtheprinteditionGlobaltradeSix-monthaverage%changponayearearlier200810121415Economist,comUNTILthisweek,theworldhadnotseenabigmultilateral1tradepactmultilateral : involving several different countries or
2、groups pact: a formal agreement between two groups, countries, or people, especially to help each other or to stop fighting:forover20years.ThedealthathasbrokenthedroughttheTrans-PacificPartnership(TPP),whichcomprises comprise: to consist of particular parts, groups etc: backdrop : the conditions or
3、situation in which something happensagainst a backdrop of something a love story set against a backdrop of war and despair12countriesinAsiaandtheAmericas,includingtheUnitedStatesandJapaniswelcome.Butthosewhobelieveinfreetrade,andthebenefitsitbrings,oughtnottomissthebiggerpicture.Thebackdroptothiswee
4、ksdealisa bleak: without anything to make you feel happy or hopefula bleak future/prospect The company still hopes to find a buyer, but the future looks bleak.bonakFirst,thepactitself.Ithasflaws flaw: a mistake, mark, or weakness that makes something imperfect = defectwhatcompromise compromise: to r
5、each an agreement in which everyone involved accepts less that what they wanted at firstbroker: broker a deal/settlement/treaty etc: to arrange the details of a deal etc so that everyone can agree to it: a ceasefire agreement brokered by the UNdoesnt?buttheadvantagesaregreater.Thenegotiatorswhobroke
6、redtheagreementinAtlantadidnotjustlowertariffssector: a part of an area of activity, especially of business, trade etc4 draw up: draw something ? up to prepare a written document, such as a list or contract:5 visa: an official mark put on your passport that gives you permission to temporarily enter
7、or leave a foreign country:6 veiled: a veiled threat, warning, attack, reference etc is expressed so that its exact meaning is hidden or unclear A fine rain was beginning to veil the hills.7 arbitrary: decided or arranged without any reason or plan, often unfairly: I8 step: one of a series of things
8、 that you do in order to deal with a problem or to succeed9 The Fine Print (寫在文件底部的)保留條款(為該協(xié)議的附件,注明保留或限制性的條件)10comprehensive: including all the necessary facts, details, or problems that need to be dealt with= thorough:incoddled2sectors3suchasagriculture,butalsodrewup4sharedrulesoneverythingfromvisa
9、s5forbusinesstravellerstocompetitionpolicy.Thedeallimitsveiled6formsofprotectionism,suchasspecialtreatmentofstate-ownedfirmsandarbitrary7importbansaftersafetyscares.ThebenefitsofsuchstepSarehardtoquantify,especiallyasthefineprint9ofthedealhasnotyetbeenreleased,butthemostcomprehensive10assessmentthus
10、farvocal : expressing strong opinions publicly, especially about things that you disagree with2 dairy farm : a farm that has cows and produces and sells milk3dole something ? outto give something such as money, food, advice etc to more than one person4 subsidy : money that is paid by a government or
11、 organization to make prices lower, reduce the cost of producing goods5 saga: a long and complicated series of events, or a description of this6 champion : to publicly fight for and defend an aim or principle, such as the rights of a group of people: She championed the cause of religious freedom7 un
12、derscore : to emphasize the fact that something is important or true8 shift : a change in the way people think about something, in the way something is done9 contentious: causing a lot of argument and disagreement between people10 steer: to guide someones behaviour or the way a situation develops11
13、glaring : very bad and very noticeable = obvious12 outcast: someone who is not accepted by the people they live among, or who has been forced out of their home:13 linchpin : the linchpin of something the person or thing in a group, system etc that is most important, because everything depends on the
14、mreckonstheycouldboosttheGDPofitsmembersby1%by2025.Theimpactonemerging-marketsignatories12tothedealislikelytobebyfarthebiggest.AwayfromthebrightspotViewedfromadifferentangle,however,thetale13ofTPPtellsadifferentstory.First,thereisthefactthattheagreementhasbeensohardtosellinAmerica.Ittookmonths,andse
15、verallegislative14setbacks5,beforeBarackObamawontheauthority16tofast-track17acongressionalvoteonTPP.Thedealmaystillbevoteddown18,inAmericaorelsewhere.ThosewhowouldsucceedMrObamaaspresidentknowthatTPPholdsfewvotes.ThisweekHillaryClinton,theDemocraticfront-runnerandonceapromoterofTPP,cameoutagainstit.
16、ThebeneficiariesofTPPconsumers,aswellasexportersarenumerous,buttheirpotentialgainsdiffuse0.Bycontrast,inefficient21firmsandfarms,abouttobeexposedtogreaterforeigncompetition,areobviousand1tariff:ataxongoodscomingintoacountryorgoingoutofacountry2coddle:totreatsomeoneinawaythatistookindandgentleandthat
17、protectsthemfrompainordifficulty:3vocal1.Canada,forexample,limitedthethreattoitsdairyfarmers2anddoledout3abignewsubsid夕.Thesaga5isareminderofhowhardfreetradeistochampiohSecond,theTPPdealunderscoMstheshift8awayfromglobalagreements.TheWorldTradeOrganisation,whichisresponsibleforglobaldeals,hasbeentryi
18、ng,andlargelyfailing,tonegotiateonesince2001.Reachingagreementamongits161members,especiallynowthataveragetariffsaroundtheworldarerelativelylowandtalksarefocusedonmorecontentious9obstaclestotrade,hasprovedalmostimpossible.Regionaldealsarethenextbestthing,but,bydefinition,theyexcludesomecountries,ands
19、omaysteer10customawayfromthemostefficientproducer.InthecaseofTPP,theglaring11outcast2isChina,thelinchpin13ofmostglobalsupplychains.Tradeingoodsbyexistingandproposedregionaltradeblocs,2014AllNAHACISA5EAN MercosurTPPTTIP$2343,2 billionIIUnitedStatesChinaGermanyJapanWhycountriesaresokeentoagreenewtrade
20、dealsThird,goodnewsonTPPstandsincontrastto1badnewselsewhere.Cross-borde2tradetodayisasmuchabouttheexchangeofdataasitistheflowofgoodsandservices:thisweeksawtheannulmentbyaEuropeancourtofadealthathadenabledAmericanfirmstotransfercustomerdataacrosstheAtlantic.Conventionaltradefacesevenstrongerheadwind?
21、Thevolume in contrast to : a difference between people, ideas, situations, things etc that are being compared The stock lost 60 cents a share, in contrast to last year, when it gained 21 cents. Cross-border :跨境annulment : to officially state that a marriage or legal agreement no longer exists headwi
22、nd : a wind that blows directly towards you when you are moving volume : the total amount of something, especially when it is large or increasing soggy : unpleasantly wet and softofgoodsshippedinthefirsthalfofthisyearwasjust1.9%higherthaninthesameperiodof2014,farbelowitslong-termaveragede mandbfogyi
23、mportsa threat togrowthof5%.ThisreflectsnotonlyChinathedevelopingeconomiesthatsupplyitbutalsotheaccumulationofminormeasuresthatsiltup silt up : if something silts up or is silted up, it becomes filled with siltglobaltrade.DealslikeTPParethemosteffectivewaytoreversethissorrytrend,byreducingtariffsand
24、otherobstaclestotrade.Optimistshopeitcannowbeexpanded,toincludeChinaandothers.Sadly,experiencesuggeststhatwillbehard.跨太平洋合作伙伴銀邊背后總有烏云締結(jié)太平洋貿(mào)易協(xié)定值得歡迎,但莫急歡呼直至本周之前,全球已有20多年沒有簽訂過大型多邊貿(mào)易協(xié)定了。打破這一困局的跨太平洋合作伙伴協(xié)定(TPP)值得歡迎,它涵蓋了包括美國(guó)和日本在內(nèi)的12個(gè)亞洲和美洲國(guó)家。但是,信奉自由貿(mào)易及其益處的人們不應(yīng)忽略大環(huán)境:本周締結(jié)這一協(xié)定的背景頗為慘淡。首先是協(xié)定本身。它有缺陷(哪個(gè)折衷方案會(huì)沒有缺陷呢?
25、),但好處更多。在亞特蘭大談判協(xié)定的各國(guó)代表并不只是降低了農(nóng)業(yè)等備受保護(hù)產(chǎn)業(yè)的關(guān)稅,還擬定了從商務(wù)簽證到競(jìng)爭(zhēng)政策等方方面面的共享規(guī)則。這一協(xié)議限制了隱性的貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義,例如國(guó)有公司享有特別待遇,以及在安全恐慌事件后做出任意武斷的進(jìn)口禁令。這些措施的效益難以量化,尤其協(xié)定的細(xì)節(jié)條款尚未披露。但迄今為止最全面的評(píng)定估計(jì),到2025年,它們能夠推動(dòng)協(xié)議成員國(guó)的GDP增長(zhǎng)1%,這可能是到目前為止對(duì)新興市場(chǎng)簽署國(guó)最大的正面影響。亮點(diǎn)之外然而,從另一個(gè)角度看,TPP的傳奇所講述的卻是一個(gè)不同的故事。首先,這一協(xié)議在美國(guó)歷盡波折。奧巴馬耗時(shí)數(shù)月、在國(guó)會(huì)屢次受挫后才獲得“貿(mào)易促進(jìn)授權(quán)”,將TPP直接提交國(guó)會(huì)表
26、決。在美國(guó)或其他國(guó)家,該協(xié)議仍可能被否決。奧巴馬可能的繼任者知道TPP難以贏得很多支持。呼聲很高的民主黨候選人希拉里曾經(jīng)支持TPP,本周也站出來反對(duì)。不計(jì)其數(shù)的消費(fèi)者和出口商是TPP的受益者,但他們的潛在收益分散。相比之下,那些低效的公司和農(nóng)場(chǎng)將面對(duì)更激烈的外國(guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng),而它們更能引起關(guān)注并表示反對(duì)。例如,加拿大限制了對(duì)該國(guó)奶農(nóng)的威脅,并發(fā)放了大量新補(bǔ)貼。這一事例提示了要維護(hù)自由貿(mào)易殊為不易。第二,TPP突顯了脫離全球協(xié)定的方向。負(fù)責(zé)全球協(xié)定的世界貿(mào)易組織自2001年起就曾試圖達(dá)成一項(xiàng)全球貿(mào)易協(xié)定,但基本失敗。事實(shí)證明,要在它的161個(gè)成員國(guó)間達(dá)成協(xié)議幾無可能,尤其如今全球平均關(guān)稅相對(duì)較低,而談判側(cè)重于更具爭(zhēng)議的貿(mào)易壁壘。區(qū)域協(xié)定是僅次于全球協(xié)定的最佳選擇,但是顧名思義,它們把一些國(guó)家排除在外,因而會(huì)使貿(mào)易遠(yuǎn)離最有效率的生產(chǎn)商。就TPP而言,最引人注目的局外人是中國(guó),它是大多數(shù)全球供應(yīng)鏈的樞紐。第三,TPP的達(dá)成是好消息,但其他領(lǐng)域卻有諸多壞消息。今日的跨境貿(mào)易不僅僅
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