Slide1中國氣候變化信息網(wǎng)課件

1、Agriculture, Climate Changeand Policy農(nóng)業(yè)，氣候變化和政策David Howlett, University of LeedsDavid Howlett 英國利茲大學第1頁，共20頁。My Perspective我的觀點Now a Researcher目前是一名研究人員Former Policy adviser in DFID之前是DFID的政策咨詢員Experience of agriculture in climate change negotiations參加農(nóng)業(yè)氣候變化談判Wanting to use model results for policy

2、希望將模式結(jié)果用于政策第2頁，共20頁。Questions 問題How reliable and useful are climate change and crop models for policy makers and farmers?氣候變化和作物模型對政策制定者和農(nóng)民有多可靠，多有用？Can agriculture adaptation be considered alone, or must it be considered with mitigation of green house gases?單獨考慮農(nóng)業(yè)適應(yīng)，還是與溫室氣體減排相結(jié)合？第3頁，共20頁。Modelling I

3、ssues模式問題1. Climate models (reliability)氣候模式（可靠性）2. Crop models (reliability)作物模式（可靠性）3. Combining models (reliability)二者結(jié)合的模式（可靠性）4. Socio-economic impacts (reliability)社會經(jīng)濟影響（可靠性）5. Quantifying and reducing uncertainty, building on ESPA project量化和減少不確定性，建設(shè)ESPA項目第4頁，共20頁。Wheat Yields 小麥產(chǎn)量Observatio

4、ns觀測Simulations模擬第5頁，共20頁。Precision and Accuracy精準Accurate準確Precise精確Accurate + Precise精準第6頁，共20頁。Wheat predictions小麥預估Source Challinor et al. (2007)Scenario情景Range范圍2 x CO2 in N. America2倍CO2 ，北美-100 to +234%+4oC low latitude+4oC低緯度-60 to +30%+ 4oC mid to high latitude+4oC中高緯度-30 to +40%第7頁，共20頁。Wh

5、y do we need models?為什么我們需要模式？中國在干旱方面風險巨大，源自英國BBC新聞 Millions at risk in China Drought BBC News第8頁，共20頁。To Make Decisions 做決策We need to know impact on people: 我們需要了解對人類的影響Food prices糧食價格Hunger饑餓Nutrition營養(yǎng)Livelihoods生計Economic Growth經(jīng)濟增長Migration遷移Security安全Conflict沖突第9頁，共20頁。Impact on food prices 對糧

6、食價格的影響 Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.第10頁，共20頁。Impact on Child Malnutrition 對兒童營養(yǎng)不良的影響Source: M. Rosegrant (IFPRI) 2009.第11頁，共20頁。Remember uncertainty and the risks if we dont communicate如果我們不交流，須牢記不確定性和風險Accurate準確Precise精確Accurate + Precise精準第12頁，共20頁。Decisions on adaptation 決策和適應(yīng) Research on

7、new crops新作物研究Change practices改變耕作方式Water management水資源管理Migration遷移Migration遷移Social protection社會保護Disaster and Risk 災難和風險Infrastructure基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施第13頁，共20頁。But not just adaptationwe need to mitigate GHG from agriculture and carbon sequestration但是除了適應(yīng)，我們還需要進行農(nóng)業(yè)減排和碳封存第14頁，共20頁。Agriculture Emissions 農(nóng)業(yè)排放Dir

8、ect source of GHG emissions (CH4 N2O)溫室氣體的直接排放源（ CH4 N2O ）Loss of soil carbon土壤碳流失Energy for fertilisers, transport, processing and packaging化肥，運輸，加工和包裝所耗費的能源Agriculture as a driver of deforestation農(nóng)業(yè)是森林砍伐的主要原因第15頁，共20頁。Global Problem/ 全球問題Globally 30% of total emissions from agriculture全球30%的排放來自農(nóng)業(yè)

9、6% of emissions, but if no change in practices then could be 30% of UKs emissions by 2030到2030年，如果不改變耕作方式，英國的排放將由6%上升為30%Per capita emissions low but will go up by 2012 Hongmin estimates +48% on 1994 levels人均排放低但將會逐漸上升。據(jù)Hongmin估計到2012年將比1994年Global Research Alliance on Agriculture Green House Gas em

10、issions launched全球研究聯(lián)盟對農(nóng)業(yè)溫室氣體排放展開研究Agriculture included in climate change negotiations農(nóng)業(yè)包括在氣候變化談判中第16頁，共20頁。Sequestration封存Can sequester 6 GT (88% of agriculture emissions) e.g.可以封存6 億噸（農(nóng)業(yè)排放的88%），例如Conservation agriculture/保護性耕作Rangeland management/牧場管理Agroforestry/農(nóng)林學MoA and SAIN projects:MoA 和 SAI

11、N 項目：Impact of Climate Change and Technologies氣候變化影響和技術(shù)Estimates of future GHG & mitigation in China中國未來溫室氣體和減排量估計第17頁，共20頁。Low Carbon Agriculture低碳農(nóng)業(yè)Policies that give win-win-wins:“三贏”政策Produce food, crops and incomes產(chǎn)生糧食，作物和收入Resilience to climate change氣候變化適應(yīng)機制Reduce emissions & sequester carbon

12、減排和碳封存UK, China and Global Challenge英國，中國和全球挑戰(zhàn)第18頁，共20頁。3 Messages/要點1. Adaptation planning for agriculture must consider mitigation of GHG and opportunities for carbon sequestration農(nóng)業(yè)適應(yīng)規(guī)劃須考慮溫室氣體減排和碳封存中存在機遇2. Understand what information policy makers and farmers need to make their decisions 理解政策制定者和農(nóng)民需要什么信息進行決策3. Develop models to provide inform