創(chuàng)業(yè)板指滬深300相對PE回落至均值之下

1、（一）行業(yè)基本面與估值（二）行業(yè)資金流動（三）行業(yè)綜合打分風險提示2目錄1.1 近期市場估值回調(diào)明顯，創(chuàng)業(yè)板、科創(chuàng)板估值仍處于歷史較高水平資料來源：Wind，華西證券研究所79.52%71.41%58.44%72.63%83.67%84.12%全部A股全部A股(非金融石油石化) 主板中小企業(yè)板 創(chuàng)業(yè)板創(chuàng)業(yè)板(剔除溫氏股份) 科創(chuàng)板21.7536.4316.3147.7899.99110.95104.7638.2576.9937.7096.75204.66218.11172.0711.5116.809.7521.9128.1028.1048.1918.0028.8315.2941.8962.30

2、63.9680.2974.20%37.12%47.94%17.95%38.68%69.87%全部A股全部A股(非金融石油石化) 主板中小企業(yè)板 創(chuàng)業(yè)板創(chuàng)業(yè)板(剔除溫氏股份) 科創(chuàng)板1.792.681.393.185.375.437.173.865.563.818.1213.9513.9512.941.341.751.192.092.202.204.971.952.731.673.604.414.427.3570.88%46.78%截至2020年10月30日，全部A股PE（TTM）為21.75倍，位于2009年以來79.52 分位數(shù)；PB_LF 1.79倍，位于2009年以來37.12 分位數(shù)。

3、截至2020年10月30日，主板/創(chuàng)業(yè)板/科創(chuàng)板PE（TTM）分別為16.31倍、99.99倍、104.76倍，位于2009年以來58.44 、83.67 、74.2 分位數(shù)；PB_LF分別為1.39倍、5.37倍、7.17倍， 位于2009年以來17.95 、69.87 、46.78 分位數(shù)。創(chuàng)業(yè)板、科創(chuàng)板估值處于歷史相對較高水平華西數(shù)據(jù)觀市之市場估值篇主要板塊對比2020/10/30最大值最小值中位數(shù)當前估值所處歷史的百分位PE_TTM估值箱型圖估值 PE(TTM)估值PB_LF341.2 上證50、滬深300等指數(shù)PB位于歷史相對較低水平截至2020年10月30日，主要指數(shù)中，上證50、

4、滬深300、深證100、創(chuàng)業(yè)板指PE（TTM）分 別為11.37倍、14.35倍、28.91倍和63.23倍，分別位于歷史68.91 、73.99 、87.07 和80.96 分位數(shù)，PB_LF分別為1.24倍、1.57倍、4.03倍和7.43倍，位于歷史36.70 、 48.32 、93.92 和89.97 分位數(shù)。上證50、滬深300等指數(shù)PB_LF處于歷史相對較低水平34.508.9014.1058.02%27.596.9410.1868.91%30.037.1211.0166.54%31.918.0112.5173.99%上證綜指 上 證 50 上證180 滬深300 中證50014.

5、8711.3712.1314.3530.2992.7516.0031.9742.16%144.8218.9449.9044.50%64.5712.8821.5387.07%63.4712.1722.8776.11%64.6118.5331.0965.22%137.8627.0451.3780.96%141.8427.2653.4283.39%中證1000 深證100 深證成指 中小板指 創(chuàng)業(yè)板指 創(chuàng)業(yè)板50 萬得全A47.0528.9130.5433.6463.2374.9021.7338.2411.5117.9979.45%3.851.211.623.731.021.3426.27%36.7

6、0%3.821.091.4125.05%3.901.171.5948.32%上證綜指 上 證 50 上證180 滬深300 中證5005.891.512.5717.67%34.72%93.92%74.09%61.81%深證100 深證成指 中小板指 創(chuàng)業(yè)板指89.97%85.32%創(chuàng)業(yè)板50 萬得全A1.441.241.281.572.032.564.033.274.307.438.591.908.144.655.757.6915.0116.233.961.711.811.702.542.513.241.403.072.842.894.004.805.822.0141.05%估值 PE(TTM

7、)估值PB_LF 中證1000主要指數(shù)對比2020/10/30最大值最小值中位數(shù)當前估值所處歷史的百分位估值箱型圖資料來源：Wind，華西證券研究所資料來源：Wind，華西證券研究所創(chuàng)業(yè)板指/滬深300相對PE位于歷史59分位數(shù)截至2020年10月30日，創(chuàng)業(yè)板指相對于滬深300指數(shù)相對PE（TTM）4.41倍，位于歷史58.91 分位數(shù)，相對PB_LF為4.85倍，位于歷史88.74 分位數(shù)。資料來源：Wind，華西證券研究所創(chuàng)業(yè)板指/滬深300相對PB位于歷史89分位數(shù)1.3 創(chuàng)業(yè)板指/滬深300相對估值下降，風格向相對均衡轉(zhuǎn)移5資料來源：Wind，華西證券研究所申萬一級行業(yè)估值與歷史分位

8、數(shù)1.4 食品飲料、休閑服務等行業(yè)估值水平處于歷史相對高位2020/10/30最大值最小值中位數(shù)當前估值所處歷史的百分位2020/10/30最大值最小值中位數(shù)0.04%20.05%63.46%26.14%44.59%52.95%91.48%97.43%73.90%23.12%92.87%23.71%68.26%3.14%41.53%98.82%39.89%20.02%8.88%70.94%62.34%86.36%36.10%36.24%7.375.845.302.797.186.944.8510.036.236.398.354.543.974.705.518.207.754.393.937.4

9、28.3815.7611.486.602.330.901.530.721.691.651.773.001.501.452.561.261.091.121.272.071.121.500.871.461.852.361.701.323.701.732.531.323.173.513.075.322.432.414.272.141.792.002.413.803.012.261.723.043.234.263.892.6943.72%49.22%119.6488.0176.55153.73140.31118.1032.3152.2663.14113.2974.3774.3843.2950.8771

10、.38164.36120.5550.6950.1199.99245.82159.70141.8495.0619.2666.4950.2817.1310.3913.015.3412.9922.7410.5516.5515.4114.2323.4913.789.958.0113.1224.9220.719.988.3820.3224.1329.4819.499.234.5010.809.8043.7818.1827.3523.9445.2650.4816.7930.3228.2736.3138.4323.5118.9716.0427.5545.8446.6724.5615.5139.8661.91

11、51.6447.2841.126.8118.5118.0591.09%農(nóng)林牧漁 采掘化工 鋼鐵有色金屬 電子家用電器 食品飲料 紡織服裝輕工制造 醫(yī)藥生物 公用事業(yè)交通運輸 房地產(chǎn) 商業(yè)貿(mào)易 休閑服務綜合建筑材料 建筑裝飾 電氣設備 國防軍工 計算機 傳媒通信 銀行非銀金融 汽車機械設備17.1314.6630.5814.4842.3551.9825.0146.1536.1826.5949.9419.9922.758.8924.26145.0540.3714.799.8443.9170.5971.7139.8938.736.6918.4331.9629.75136.0712.8130.3747

12、.24%3.411.012.270.902.234.123.618.981.871.934.641.291.401.151.556.032.082.090.903.483.114.352.722.590.681.872.152.453.485.494.456.210.641.431.351.601.032.002.302.7178.23%83.31%98.02%21.36%申萬一級行業(yè)對比PE（TTM）PB_LF當前估值所處歷史的百分位46.93%25.85%69.08%0.49%25.36%0.28%12.28%95.48%19.10%38.72%1.08%62.89%41.47%53.43

13、%17.67%42.47%1.99%30.16%44.67%37.47%3.00%32.70%17.33%16.77%6申萬一級行業(yè)盈利增速與ROE水平1.5 通信、綜合、電氣設備歸母凈利潤增速達到歷史高位2020/9/30最大值2020/9/30最大值最小值中位數(shù)89.59%39.59%39.59%50.00%50.00%64.59%12.50%33.34%25.00%75.00%35.42%58.34%10.42%2.09%2.09%2.09%100.00%37.50%18.75%95.84%75.00%6.25%87.50%100.00%20.47%15.83%13.98%16.86%1

14、2.15%10.48%19.41%24.25%13.30%10.67%14.37%13.44%14.06%14.70%12.72%10.71%12.77%17.86%13.03%15.06%17.24%11.52%12.09%21.32%3.07%-0.05%3.51%-12.61%-3.40%-7.31%7.71%10.98%2.41%2.70%7.02%-0.53%-3.21%9.24%3.39%0.64%1.66%4.32%6.01%2.94%-1.90%1.63%-5.09%-3.07%6.78%9.05%8.49%3.38%3.76%6.29%15.70%18.40%8.47%6.0

15、2%11.24%8.07%7.92%12.66%8.56%8.40%5.36%10.91%10.76%6.68%3.35%9.33%9.68%5.67%6.25%498.3%20523.6%192.3%1308.8%1866.6%779.8%158.9%116.3%126.7%293.3%88.0%7228.3%1415.3%82.8%93.8%90.8%212.9%150.4%261.0%184.8%1236.6%113.4%129.1%5507.1%67.2%330.4%-57.0%-101.1%-60.8%-3139.1%-124.6%-305.9%-19.2%-12.7%-59.4%-

16、70.4%-10.9%-104.6%-117.5%-2.1%-60.7%-93.5%-82.2%-47.0%-10.5%-43.6%-225.5%-53.9%-180.2%-276.4%-3.6%-71.1%17.6%2.2%9.1%-20.7%4.6%35.2%24.1%20.0%-0.5%29.2%21.3%15.0%5.3%15.5%3.7%19.2%2.4%33.3%14.8%25.9%3.1%17.3%34.5%14.1%8.9%10.9%35.42%農(nóng)林牧漁 采掘化工 鋼鐵有色金屬 電子家用電器 食品飲料 紡織服裝 輕工制造 醫(yī)藥生物 公用事業(yè) 交通運輸 房地產(chǎn) 商業(yè)貿(mào)易 休閑服務

17、 綜合建筑材料 建筑裝飾 電氣設備 國防軍工 計算機 傳媒通信 銀行非銀金融 汽車機械設備209.2%-26.1%-2.3%-20.8%2.0%48.7%-10.2%9.3%-25.6%55.3%16.1%17.7%-64.8%-2.1%-60.7%-93.5%212.9%10.2%3.6%119.4%43.9%-45.7%69.2%5507.1%-1.4%-1.6%1.3%29.3%525.1%143.1%-69.1%-38.9%11.2%6.1%33.34%70.84%19.78%4.86%6.84%6.92%1.85%8.20%13.10%19.52%2.82%6.28%8.65%7.2

18、7%2.49%11.78%3.39%0.64%5.18%15.05%9.19%6.89%3.53%2.15%-1.44%2.21%9.69%9.84%5.42%6.09%19.98%15.93%20.70%14.26%9.69%5.52%4.08%3.15%16.49%10.14%12.49%6.54%22.92%2.09%43.75%10.42%39.59%56.25%8.34%27.09%2.09%2.09%47.92%77.09%14.59%58.34%54.17%4.17%12.50%8.34%37.50%申萬一級行業(yè)對比歸母凈利潤(TTM)同比增速最小值中位數(shù)當前利潤增速所處歷史的百

19、分位ROE(TTM)當前ROE所處歷史的百分位97.92%27.09%31.25%72.92%29.17%91.67%12.50%68.75%6.25%資料來源：Wind，華西證券研究所71.6 電氣設備、汽車等行業(yè)MA60強勢股占比較高0.27-1.82%-3.52%0.2015.44%0.601.17%0.675.77%11.91%0.600.6016.16%1.0030.94%0.930.14%46.70%6.74%47.19%66.82%15.15%42.42%42.90%26.40%53.87%28.84%20.00%34.29%31.94%18.11%43.31%45.21%24.

20、83%49.32%72.79%42.86%60.32%73.97%27.88%65.38%24.60%29.21%44.94%35.01%19.71%46.72%10.72%0.670.6740.67%17.85%56.37%19.01%0.6042.57%40.22%0.4740.34%41.18%0.5343.74%12.85%10.92%3.88%30.23%0.2734.88%17.53%45.36%0.20%0.35%-3.67%1.59%0.4073.07%8.11%27.03%31.45%0.6733.60%14.71%38.24%4.95%0.5345.19%18.31%54.

21、93%9.45%0.4751.50%14.07%40.00%-1.20%0.3350.89%50.47%64.62%34.90%1.0026.25%16.88%61.04%15.41%0.6033.15%21.83%41.27%-0.73%0.3316076193054075666841724967436166616266851991163878794245062675422158907163862087111331438432846148653346920035177284108186136225245591578222113321215990152601501051551931321161

22、12561575130804551514328455861557258069370585225546619301194462006470826267179083731209524282103172363814423125235811531111512325434160155105154145701535111388115132938332.94%17.34%34.10%6.30%0.4738.98%19.05%36.19%0.1335.71%21.62%29.73%0.6048.12%11.90%58.33%-9.12%-0.25%3.47%0.6751.92%44.32%70.27%28.3

23、2%1.00農(nóng)林牧漁 采掘化工 鋼鐵有色金屬 電子家用電器 食品飲料 紡織服裝輕工制造 醫(yī)藥生物 公用事業(yè)交通運輸 房地產(chǎn) 商業(yè)貿(mào)易休閑服務 綜合建筑材料 建筑裝飾電氣設備 國防軍工 計算機傳媒通信 銀行非銀金融 汽車機械設備11724994557566728396319161102688890146808818631705129521453228238217076031115740.42%30.79%52.93%13.89%0.73申萬一級行業(yè)市值集中度、強勢股占比與MA多頭排列打分申萬一級行業(yè)對比 總市值(億元) 平均總市值(億元) 流通市值(億元) 平均流通市值(億元)市值集中度MA60

24、強勢股占比MA240強勢股占比當前點位距離年線位置MA多頭排列打分資料來源：Wind，華西證券研究所8（一）行業(yè)基本面與估值（二）行業(yè)資金流動（三）行業(yè)綜合打分風險提示9目錄資料來源：Wind，華西證券研究所IPO融資數(shù)量與規(guī)模（億元）上周共有11家新股IPO發(fā)行，募集金額合計105億元，13家公司再融資發(fā)行規(guī)模合計283億元。資料來源：Wind，華西證券研究所再融資公司數(shù)量與募集規(guī)模（億元）2.1 上周11家新股發(fā)行，合計募資105億元2019/10/252020/1/25IPO數(shù)量(左軸)2020/4/252020/7/252020/10/25IPO融資規(guī)模(右軸，億元)2019/10/2

25、52020/1/252020/4/25增發(fā)配股發(fā)行數(shù)量(左軸)2020/7/252020/10/25增發(fā)配股規(guī)模(右軸，億元)10資料來源：Wind，華西證券研究所限售股解禁周度規(guī)模統(tǒng)計（億元）下周全市場限售股解禁規(guī)模預計1517.0億元，其中，解禁規(guī)模較大的行業(yè)為通信、電氣 設備、電子等，預計解禁規(guī)模462.0億元、307.6億元、153.3億元。資料來源：Wind，華西證券研究所下周各行業(yè)估算解禁規(guī)模（億元）2.2 下周通信、電氣設備行業(yè)解禁規(guī)模相對較大3500.0500450400350300250200150100500 46230815313713411058362926191716

26、833000.02500.02000.01500.01000.0500.00.011資料來源：Wind，華西證券研究所大股東增減持周度規(guī)模統(tǒng)計（全市場，億元）上周，全市場大股東整體凈減持210.2億元，其中，電氣設備、電子、醫(yī)藥生物等行業(yè)減 持金額較多，分別為56.4億、55億、22.7億元。資料來源：Wind，華西證券研究所上周各行業(yè)大股東增減持規(guī)模（億元）2.3 大股東凈減持210億，電氣設備、電子、醫(yī)藥生物等行業(yè)居多0-1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3-4 -5 -5 -6 -6 -6 -7 -7-8-12-23-55 -56-60-50-40-30-20-100-350.0-300.0

27、-250.0-200.0-150.0-100.0-50.00.012資料來源：Wind，華西證券研究所全市場融資余額總量（億元）截至2020年10月30日，兩市融資余額1.42萬億元，占A股流通市值比例2.40 ，其中非銀 金融、電子、醫(yī)藥生物等行業(yè)融資余額較多，分別為1467億、1287億、1276億元。資料來源：Wind，華西證券研究所各行業(yè)融資余額總量（億元）2.4 兩市融資余額為1.42萬億，占A股流通市值2.400.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%16000140001200010000800060004000200002019/4/262020/7/262019/9/

28、262020/2/26融資余額（億元）杠桿交易占比100080060040020001314.00% 160012.00% 140010.00% 1200非電醫(yī)計化銀房有電農(nóng)食傳國通機汽公交建商采建家輕鋼綜紡休 銀子藥算工行地色氣林品媒防信械車用通筑業(yè)掘筑用工鐵合織閑 金 生機 產(chǎn)金設牧飲 軍 設 事運裝貿(mào) 材電制 服服 融 物屬備漁料 工 備 業(yè)輸飾易 料器造 裝務上周，融資余額增加較多的行業(yè)包括食品飲料、化工、電氣設備等，分別增加21億、13 億和9億元，環(huán)比變動幅度分別為4.6 、2.1 和1.8 。2.5 食品飲料、化工、電氣設備等行業(yè)融資余額增加較多資料來源：Wind，華西證券研究所

29、各行業(yè)周度融資余額環(huán)比變動金額（億元）及幅度211397554432111-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-2-2-4-9-241050-5-10-15-20-25-302015255.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%1.0%0.0%-1.0%-2.0%-3.0%融資余額環(huán)比上周增減(右軸)融資余額環(huán)比上周變化14上周，北上資金凈流出83億元。其中，北上資金在電氣設備、非銀金融、食品飲料等行 業(yè)凈流出較多，分別流出32億元、29.2億元和12.1億元。2.6 北上資金凈流出83億，電氣設備、非銀金融等行業(yè)流出較多資料來源：Wind，華西證券研究所上周北上資金在各行業(yè)上流入流出規(guī)模估算（億元

30、）152.7 上周權益基金成立473億元資料來源：Wind，華西證券研究所上周，權益類基金成立規(guī)模合計為473億元，較前期有所回升。上周，權益類基金成立規(guī)模合計為473億元16（一）行業(yè)基本面與估值（二）行業(yè)資金流動（三）行業(yè)綜合打分風險提示17目錄估值業(yè)績資金流動成長空間估值與業(yè)績 匹配度PE_TTM歷史分位數(shù) PB_LF歷史分位數(shù)18凈利潤_TTM環(huán)比增速 ROE_TTM環(huán)比增速一致預期PEG北向資金行業(yè)龍頭股一致預期 目標價空間加權求和3.1 結(jié)合五維度信息對行業(yè)進行比較打分資料來源：華西證券研究所我們綜合考慮各行業(yè)的估值水平、業(yè)績增速、估值與業(yè)績匹配度、目標價空間、資金流 動等五個維度

31、對行業(yè)進行評價。各維度權重如下：估值得分*0.05 + 業(yè)績增速得分*0.25 + 估值與業(yè)績匹配度得分*0.3+ 成長空間得分*0.2 + 資金流向得分*0.2結(jié)合五維度信息對行業(yè)進行比較打分3.2 當前有色金屬、農(nóng)林牧漁、化工等行業(yè)性價比相對較高19資料來源：Wind，朝陽永續(xù)，華西證券研究所估值業(yè)績增速估值與業(yè)績匹配度龍頭股目標資金流價空間估值得分業(yè)績增速 得分估值與業(yè)績 匹配度得分龍頭股目標 價得分資金流得 分綜合得分行業(yè)排名行業(yè)PE分位數(shù)PB分位數(shù)ROE_TTM環(huán)比變動凈利潤_TTM環(huán)比增速PEG目標價空間北上資金環(huán)比上周變化有色金屬44.59%16.77%0.50%41.88%0.

32、2731.02%2.08%66.0785.71100.0053.5792.8684.021農(nóng)林牧漁0.04%37.47%-0.69%27.64%0.2933.79%0.73%73.2151.7996.4375.0071.4374.822化工63.46%32.70%1.78%43.54%0.4731.16%-0.91%42.86100.0089.2960.7135.7173.213建筑裝飾8.88%1.08%0.17%5.35%0.5646.62%1.05%92.8633.9382.1496.4378.5772.774公用事業(yè)23.71%0.49%0.47%14.21%0.5731.07%0.1

33、5%87.5064.2978.5757.1460.7167.595綜合39.89%19.10%0.74%21.24%1.72162.90%0.07%66.0782.1439.29100.0057.1467.056計算機86.36%53.43%-0.12%0.28%0.6242.23%1.23%23.2123.2175.0092.8682.1464.467電子52.95%78.23%0.44%9.28%0.7824.89%2.11%28.5757.1460.7142.8696.4361.798汽車91.09%44.67%0.83%21.26%0.727.64%1.90%25.0085.7164.

34、293.5789.2960.549房地產(chǎn)3.14%0.28%-0.20%0.58%0.3538.81%-1.85%98.2123.2192.8685.7114.2958.5710機械設備47.24%41.47%0.53%14.21%0.5221.50%-0.97%44.6467.8685.7128.5728.5756.3411國防軍工62.34%46.93%0.35%17.53%1.2629.65%0.49%33.9362.5046.4350.0067.8654.8212醫(yī)藥生物92.87%69.08%0.59%16.63%0.8619.47%-0.10%14.2973.2153.5725.0050.0050.0913鋼鐵26.14%17.33%0.31%8