中國與中亞的能源-雙軌-合作-英文-

1、China-Central Asia “Twin-TrackEnergy CooperationXu HaiyanChinas large-scale investment in Kazakh oil and gas resourcedevelopment ushered in a new era of China-Kazakhstanbilateral trade in the late 1990s. This lifted cooperation betweenChina and the five countries in Central Asia to a new level, open

2、ing the China-Central Asia energy channel and bringing the “Silk Road economic belt into being. Central Asia and Chinas Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, areas which are both abundant in renewable energy, should fully utilize their geopolitical advantages as neighbors by means of Xinjiangs rapid gro

3、wth. Projecting a twin-track mechanism of developing both renewable and non-renewable energy resources is of great significance to both China and Central Asia.I. Concerns on Sustainability of China-CentralChannelAsia EnergyChinas investment in Central Asias oil and gasbroadenedtheprospectsforbilater

4、aleconomicdevelopmentcooperation,expanding both sides energy channels and rejuvenating the historicSilk Road. Sino-Kazakh bilateral trade offers a good example ofXu Haiyan is Associate Research Fellow at the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies,Fudan University.CHINA INTERNATIONAL STUDIES .

5、November/December 2021126China-Central Asia “Twin-Track Energy Cooperationthis. Kazakh crude oil exports to China totaled 11,036,400 tonsin 2021, worth 2 billion, accounting for % of exports to China during the whole year. Petroleum and oil extracted from bitumen, sulfur and other byproducts from oi

6、l and gas processing totaled 3,414,800 tons, worth 1 billion, accounting for 7.5 % of exports to China in that year. The volume of natural uranium and uranium compounds totaled 10,900 tons, worth 8 billion, accounting for 7.9 % of the exports. The above statistics show that the energy resources for

7、68.2 % of Kazakhstans total exports to China. Other resources, such as refined copper, metal products and iron ore, totaled 9,850,800 tons, worth 3 billion, and accounting for % of total exports. In summary, energy and metal mineral commodities accounted for % of Kazakh exports to China, with non-re

8、source commodities accounting for just 3.9%. Bilateral resource trade with energy resources at its heart is thanks to Central Asias abundant reserves and Central Asian countries strategy of rejuvenation by utilizing their oil and gas resources. However, these are finite resources and specific strate

9、gies could be changed. Massive sustainability challenges are concealed behind the rapid development of bilateral oil and gas resource trade.Two decades ago, the Caspian Sea, which was thought to have energy reserves comparable with the Persian Gulf, attracted global attention and was hailed as “the

10、second Persian Gulf and the “energy base of 21st century. However, according to scientific data, the five Central Asian countries have between 8 and 20.4 billion tons in petroleum reserves, not in the same league as the Persian Gulf s hundreds of billions of tons of reserves. Central Asia has5 billi

11、on tons of recoverable reserves, ten times less than those of the Persian Gulf. Meanwhile, Central Asia has 5 trillion cubic meters of gas reserves, compared to 6 trillion cubic meters in the Persian Gulf region. In 2021, Kazakhstan extracted 1 millionCHINA INTERNATIONAL STUDIES . November/December

12、2021127Xu Haiyantons of oil, Turkmenistan extracted 11 million tons and Uzbekistanextracted 5 million tons. In terms of natural gas production, three countries had 172 billion cubic meters in total, equivalent to140 million tons of oil. Since Kazakhstans Kashagan oilfield became operational, the nat

13、ions crude oil production is expected to reach120 million tons by 2021. The Kashagan oilfield not only brings new vitality to Kazakhstans oil and gas production, but also giving new impetus to the operation of the China-Kazakhstan oil and gas pipelines. But it remains uncertain whether Kazakhstan ca

14、n repeat the success of the Kashagan oilfield, as the total amount of Central Asias oil and gas resources is somewhat limited. The International Energy Agency reported that Kazakhstans oil production would peak in 2025-2030, after which the nation would be confronted with the new challenge of energy

15、 exhaustion. Central Asias oil and gas production peak period is inevitable.Utilizing oil and gas resources to achieve national rejuvenation is a distinct phase in the development of Central Asian countries. Directly after these nations achieved independence in the 1990s, they lacked the necessary f

16、unds for development. Due to their rich reserves of oil and gas, they all adopted the strategy of national rejuvenation through oil and gas, although this strategy could only exist at a specific stage. Due to this strategy, the five Central Asian countries entered a phase of rapid economic developme

17、nt in recent years, with their annual GDP growth rates ranging from 7-12%. Kazakhstans annual per capita GDP, which was just $700 when it embarked on its rejuvenation strategy in 1994, exceeded $9,000 by2021. Kazakhstans National Statistics Office projects that this figure will surpass $16,000 in 20

18、21, bringing the nation into the league of high-income countries. In this case, Central Asian countries deepened their awareness of resource protection. They re-examined their mode of development and adjusted their overall strategiesCHINA INTERNATIONAL STUDIES . November/December 2021128China-Centra

19、l Asia “Twin-Track Energy Cooperationfor national rejuvenation. As these countries introduced protectiveresources exploitation policies ahead of their resource peak, resource exports will therefore get tightened.As the country with the fastest economic growth in Central Asia, Kazakhstan took a lead

20、in adjusting its development mode. In 2021, Nursultan Nazarbayev, President of Kazakhstan, announced the implementation of the “2021-2021 National Innovation Development Program. The Program proclaimed significant improvements for manufacturing, restrictions on the mining industry, targets for the e

21、scalation of the labor productivity of the processing industry by50% in 2021 and an increase in exports from the non-resources sector by 40%. Furthermore, Nazarbayev declared in his State of the Nation Address in 2021 that the growth rate of the processing industry should exceed or at least be equiv

22、alent to the growth rate of the mining industry by 2021. In 2021, Kazakhstans manufacturing industry grew by 6.2%; the mining industry grew by 1.3%; the machinery manufacturing industry grew by 16.8%; and the total output of the chemical industry grew by 21.5%. The results clearly showed how determi

23、ned Kazakhstan is to adjust its development mode. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan attaches great importance to the development of agriculture. The target was set in the 2021 State of the Nation Address that agricultural labor productivity should double by2021 and quadruple by 2021. On December 15, 2021, Nazar

24、bayev stated that Kazakhstan should attach importance to the development of agriculture in order to make food a major export commodity of Kazakhstan, which implied that the export structure of Kazakhstan would change, with a decline in the share of non-renewable resource products.After the completio

25、n of the project, the transportation capacity of the second phase of China-Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline will reach20 million tons. China-Central Asian Gas Pipeline Cs transportationCHINA INTERNATIONAL STUDIES . November/December 2021129Xu Haiyancapacity will be 55 billion cubic meters after the com

26、pletion ofthe project, which is equivalent to 46 million tons of oil. The two projects can transport approximately 66 million tons of oil in total. The China-Kazakhstan oil pipeline transported 10.4 million tons of oil in 2021. In April 2021, the annual gas transportation capacity of China-Central A

27、sian natural gas pipeline reached 25 billion cubic meters, equivalent to 5 million tons of crude oil. With the two projects combined, the capacity reached 5 million tons of crude oil, which meant that a contract to import the remaining5 million tons of crude oil could be made in recent years. Oil pr

28、oduction in Kazakhstan has fluctuated slightly in recent years. The country produced 1 million tons of oil in 2021, 1.1 % less than 2021. It is planned that 82 million tons of oil will be produced in Kazakhstan in 2021, % higher than in 2021. With the Kashagan oilfield becoming operational in 2021,

29、Kazakhstans crude oil production is expected to reach 120 million tons by 2021, indicating that a shortage of 5 million tons of oil could be filled. The amount of growth in the years to come still remains to be seen. In other words, serious attention should be paid to whether there will be any signi

30、ficant improvement. In 2021, the share of non-resource trade between China and Kazakhstan was 3.9 % of the total trade volume, a far cry from the target of 40%. The only solution at the moment in order to achieve an adjustment is by reducing exports of non-renewable energy and mineral resources. Kaz

31、akhstan announced that the annual output of oil would reach 1.2-1.3 trillion tons by2021. However in April 2021, the goal was postponed until 2021.As the advent of export controls on Central Asias exhaustible resources may be much earlier than expected, we should quickly seek a future development me

32、chanism for the China-Central Asia resources channel before the deadline in order to ensure the sustainability of the energy supply of this channel. The changing situation requiresCHINA INTERNATIONAL STUDIES . November/December 2021130China-Central Asia “Twin-Track Energy Cooperationdecisiveness and

33、 a strategic outlook, which is important for thesubsequent development of the China-Central Asia energy channel and the Silk Road economic zone.II. Approaches on Twin-Track Energy Introduction MechanismCentral Asia is rich in energy resources. It not only has a wealthof oil, gas, nuclear energy and

34、other exhaustible energy resources, but also even more abundant renewable energy resources, such as wind, solar, biomass, hydro and other renewable energy resources, providing a new approach to dealing with the inevitable time when oil and gas exploitation in Central Asia reaches its peak.Located in

35、 the northern hemisphere wind belt, Central Asia is one of the worlds best places for developing wind energy. Kazakhstan has the worlds richest per capita wind resources. Its wind electricity generation potential reaches 1.8 trillion KWH, 20 times equivalent to its current national electricity consu

36、mption. Thanks to its vast desert, Central Asia is fairly suitable for building large-scale solar power plants. Turkmenistans Karakum Desert covers an area of350,000 square kilometers. As the worlds fourth-largest desert, it has 800 watts per square meter of solar radiation and 2,500-3,000 hours sun

37、shine per year. Its total amount of radiation calculated is between 72 108 joules per square meter and 86.4 108 joules per square meter, higher than Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, which has Chinas most abundant solar power resources (70 108 joules per square meter). Other regions in Central Asia have a si

38、milar situation. Uzbekistan is known as the “sunny state thanks to its Kyzyl Kum Desert, where solar radiation energy is equivalent to 3 billion tons of oil, 10 times Central Asias proven oil reserves. Moyinkumu Desert and the Aral Sea coastal deserts are both large deserts in Kazakhstan, with 2,200

39、-3,000 hours of sunshine annually. CentralCHINA INTERNATIONAL STUDIES . November/December 2021131Xu HaiyanAsia is also rich in biomass energy thanks to its extensive solar powerresources. Kazakhstans annual biomass energy potential totals 35 billion KWH. Surplus grains and inferior wheat in Kazakhst

40、an can produce 3.2 billion liters of bioethanol annually, within which about 3 billion liters is available for export. Central Asia is also rich in hydropower resources, as the water sources of the Amu Darya, River Panj and Vakhsh River in Tajikistan derive from the Pamir glaciers with an altitude o

41、f more than 4,500 meters. The rivers flow through the canyon in the mountains and down to the Rukeerji floodplain, accumulating 64 million kilowatts of hydropower potential throughout its drainage basin, almost three times as large as the Three Gorges Hydropower Project. These advantages make Tajiki

42、stan the world leader in terms of per capita hydropower resources. Kyrgyzstan has 252 rivers of various sizes, including the Syr Darya that originates from the western Tianshan glaciers, with the potential to generate 18.5 million kilowatts of hydro-electricity nationwide. In this regard the amount

43、of exploited hydropower in the above-mentioned two central Asian countries has yet to account for one-tenth of their reserves.China and Central Asia both enjoy their good foundations and prospects in terms of renewable energy cooperation. It is feasible for the two sides to start cooperation on the

44、principle of gradual and stable development. In reality, it means that wind power cooperation comes first, followed by solar energy and biomass energy cooperation.Developing wind energy could be the first choice in all development investment options in Kazakhstan thanks to its most mature investment

45、 environment. Kazakhstan adopted the “Law on Support of Using Renewable Energy Sources in 2021. It also put forward its Wind Power Market Development Initiatives in 2021, preparing well for domestic development and foreign investment. In2021, Kazakhstans Sam Rook Energy Corporation started to buildC

46、HINA INTERNATIONAL STUDIES . November/December 2021132China-Central Asia “Twin-Track Energy Cooperationa 300,000 kilowatt wind farm in the Shekik Corridor of AlmatyProvince. The technology demonstration of this wind farm was made by China Guangdong Nuclear Energy Corporation. It is scheduled to be c

47、ompleted in 2021. Kazakhstans breakthrough in wind energy was the prelude to the nations large-scale development of renewable energy. A total of 56% of the countrys wind energy resources are concentrated in the strong wind belt (with a wind speed of 7 meters per second) covering only 2% of the natio

48、ns land area, which includes Djungar Gate, Shekik Corridor, Yermentau, Zhuzhymdik, Atyarao, Ft.Shevchenko, Arkalik, Astana, Korday and Karakalinks. Exploitable wind energy resources total approximately 320 million kilowatts, while its initially planned exploitable wind energy resources are 6 million

49、 kilowatts, accounting for only 1-21% of its potential. As a result, it has huge potential for development and investment. Many international wind energy companies are now players in the Kazakh market. German company Vestas Wind Technology Company has gained an advantage, investing around200 million

50、 euros in developing Yermentaus wind energy project in October 2021, and obtaining 500,000 kilowatts of the total installed capacity. In addition, Finland, Sweden, India, South Korea, Japan and other countries have also entered Central Asias wind energy development market.Regarding theTurkmenistan o

51、rTurkmenistan hassolar energy development investment market,Uzbekistan could be the first consideration. started to build solar development test stations,and opened photovoltaic power stations, solar desalination plantsand wind energy and solar energy waste treatment projects. In 2021, Uzbekistan es

52、tablished the Renewable Energy Technology Park, and opened its solar development investment market. Therefore, China has the opportunity to cooperate in constructing photovoltaic power plants or establishing photovoltaic cells production bases in CentralCHINA INTERNATIONAL STUDIES . November/Decembe

53、r 2021133Xu HaiyanAsia.Kazakhstan is preferred in terms of investment in the biomass energy development market due to its 9 million tons of annual production of fiber crops including crop stalks, stems and leaves and husks. Owning the technology to cold press straw biomass into high-density granular

54、 fuel, China could choose to invest in building factories in Kazakhstan.In terms of water resources development, China should bear in mind not to get itself involved into water resource disputes involving the five Central Asian countries. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan lie in the upper reaches of the Amu

55、 Darya and Syr Darya rivers, where hydropower potential is the largest. In order to meet high power demand in the winter, the two countries have to store water in the spring and summer, whereas spring and summer are the best time for agricultural irrigation in the downstream countries of Uzbekistan,

56、 Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, resulting in contradictions and conflict between upstream countries storing water and downstream countries using the water. When cooperating with the Central Asian countries in developing water resource, China should take all relevant factors into account. The proportio

57、nate action is to provide technical support for the rational development of water resources that could be accepted by both downstream and upstream countries sharing transnational rivers in Central Asia.The ultimate goal of introducing a twin-track mechanism is to replace exhaustible energy resources

58、 with renewable energy resources. However, this will be a very long process. The European Union took the lead in clearly stating its timetable to replace fossil and nuclear energy with renewable energy. According to its timetable, the proportion of renewable energy in its power source should reach 2

59、0% before 2021,45-50% in 2030, and 100% by 2050. Electricity from renewable energy currently accounts for less than 1% of the total in CentralCHINA INTERNATIONAL STUDIES . November/December 2021134China-Central Asia “Twin-Track Energy CooperationAsia. The process will get tougher and become longer a

60、s Central Asiancountries have a low starting point and limited economic strength. The overtaking of exhaustible resource requires a long transition period when both types of resources compete with each other. As a result, the twin-track energy introduction mechanism is meant to exist for a long time