世界銀行非洲電力行業(yè)概況

1、Sub-Saharan Africa Energy Sector Overview & World Bank Group ProgramJuly 第1頁ContentsSection I Africa Energy Sector OverviewSection II Potential & OpportunitiesSection III WB and IFC ProgramsSection IV Deep Dive on Solar PV in AfricaSummary: Scope for collaboration2第2頁Installed generation capacity is

2、 145 GW, of which 80 GW in Sub Saharan Africa (= to Republic of Korea)600 million people (70% of population) and 10 million SMEs lack energy accessExcl. South Africa, consumption is 1% of OECD levelsEnergy supply not in pace with GDP growth and outpaced by demand growth30 countries face regular inte

3、rruption of servicesSales lost (interruptions): 6% formal, 16% informal sectorNearly 80% of households rely on solid biomass for cooking500,000 deaths per year attributed to indoor pollutionAfrica Energy (Un)Balance: Low Supply & Low AccessSource: IEA and World Bank3第3頁P(yáng)ower Generation Capacity in S

4、ub Saharan Africa (SSA) Highly Concentrated 12 countries account for 90% of capacity27 have grid-connected power systems smaller than 500MW14 smaller than 100MW Few economies of scaleLarge energy resources remain undevelopedCountry MWNigeria7,044Sudan3,038Ghana2,812DRC2,444Mozambique2,382Ethiopia2,0

5、94Zambia1,985Zimbabwe1,970Kenya1,766Tanzania1,659Cte dIvoire1,521Angola1,509Cameroon1,2384第4頁P(yáng)erformance of SSA Power Sector Global OutlierGeneration capacity (MW per million population)Electrification rate (Percentage of households)Electricity consumption (kWh per capita per year)Power prices (US$

6、per kilowatt-hour)Source: World Bank5第5頁Currently, about 1-2 GW of new installed capacity deployed yearly, against 6-7 GW neededPower requirements will double by 2030 and treble by 2040Mounting Energy NeedsAccess growing 1% per year in the last decadeAt this rate, less than 60% of Africans will have

7、 electricity in their homes by 2030 less than today!Source: IEA6第6頁Type of investment*Bln. ($) debt and equityGW added% of total GW% of total investmentPublic15.98.743.750.7IPPs7.04.824.022.2China5.03.316.516.0ODA, DFI, and Arab funds3.53.215.911.2Total31.419.8100.0100.0Enormous investment needs: $9

8、-10* bln. invested yearly in SSA against $40 bln. needed for universal access by 2030Energy Financing Challenge To Be Addressed7Private sector not systematically engagedPrivate investment in SSA energy sector = 1% of private investment in emerging economies / developing regions (vs. 34% for South As

9、ia)Six SSA countries concentrate 80% of private investments (Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Uganda, Tanzania, Senegal)Engagement mainly through IPPsHigh tariffs do not cover costFew poor unconnected households can afford a connection at current tariff levelsYet, utilities rely on government subsidies

10、*Total investment power generation plants, SSA excl. South Africa, 1990第7頁ContentsSection I Africa Energy Sector OverviewSection II Potential & OpportunitiesSection III WBs ProgramSection IV Deep Dive on Solar PV in AfricaSummary: Scope for collaboration8第8頁P(yáng)otential: Abundant Low Carbon, Low Cost E

11、nergy Resources 283 GW of technical hydropower potential (=1200 TWh/year of power)One of Africas most promising drivers for green growth Only a fraction of Africas hydropower has been developedMajor reserves of Natural GasWest: Nigeria, Gulf of GuineaEast: Mozambique, Tanzania15+ GW of Geothermal po

12、tential African Rift ValleyOver 1,000 GW of Wind and SolarNeeds to be economically dispatched with attentive siting and infrastructure9第9頁106 highest potential countries: Ethiopia, Guinea, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Sudan, Mozambique, Cameroon SSA power landscape is drastically changing aft

13、er decades of finance scarcity. Non-traditional financiers and developers are pursuing development of most attractive sites in parallel to renewed IFI interestHydropower still very much a public business, but private sector slowly enteringO&M of new hydro stock will have to be addressed to ensure us

14、eful lifespanOpportunity: Hydropower第10頁Opportunity: Gas to PowerGas: avoid flaring and promote regional trade180 tcf proven reserves in Nigeria, half is associated gas. Still significant flaringSome other pockets with upsides (Cameroon 5 tcf, Congo 4 tcf, Ghana 1.5 tcf). Regional trade potential wi

15、th WAGPGas: New frontier markets?Huge undeveloped discoveries (128 tcf Mozambique, 47 tcf Tanzania)Non-associated gas, LNG. Timing is of the essence in a crowded global marketGas: Alternative to Coal?Pipeline gas from MozambiquePotential coal-bed methaneOffshore exploration beginningBut tough social

16、 battle ahead to displace coalGas: Game-changer?Largest find offshore Egypt (30 tcf, equivalent to 40% of countrys proven reserves)Huge relief for domestic marketGas: promising discoveries in 25 50 tcf potential in SenegalSuccessful exploration /appraisal in MauritaniaSources: World Bank, Wall Stree

17、t Journal, OPEC11第11頁West Africa Power PoolEast Africa Power PoolCentral Africa Power PoolSouth Africa Power PoolPower PoolCost Saving (US$B/yr.)LRMC (% decrease)CO2 Emission(mtpa)Key resourcesCAPP0.222HydroEAPP1.0020Hydro, geothermalSAPP1.01441Hydro, coal, gasWAPP0.555Hydro, gasTotal2.7-70Opportuni

18、ty: Regional Power Trade Reducing Cost of Electricity12第12頁Opportunities: GeothermalKenyaEstimated Potential: 10 GWInstalled Capacity: 630 MWPublic and private sector activeProjects under development:Surface exploration: 3Exploration drilling 8Capacity drilling: 1Plant construction: 4EthiopiaEstimat

19、ed Potential: 10.8 GWInstalled Capacity: 7 MW (not running)Public and private sector activeProjects under development:Surface exploration: 3Exploration drilling: 3Capacity drilling: 1DjiboutiEstimated Potential: 1 GWInstalled Capacity: 0 MWPublic sector activeProjects under development:Exploration d

20、rilling: 1EritreaEstimated Potential: NAInstalled Capacity: 0 MWPublic sector activeProjects under development:Surface exploration: 1UgandaEstimated Potential: 450 MWInstalled Capacity: 0 MWPublic and private sector activeProjects under development:Surface exploration: 4TanzaniaEstimated Potential:

21、650 MW to 5000 MWInstalled Capacity: 0 MWPublic sector activeProjects under development:Surface exploration: 2Exploration drilling: 113第13頁Africa Climate Change Action PlanExpected outcomesResource mobilizationFocusBy By 2025By By Solar energy1 GW of grid-connected solar PV; 5 million off-grid HHs w

22、ith access to modern energy services3 GW of grid-connected solar PV; 60 million off-grid HHs with access to modern energy servicesUSD 2.7 billionUSD 7 billionGeothermal150MW of geoth. capacity; downstream private sector investment leveraged through concessional financing for exploration500MW of geot

23、h. capacity; geoth. sector operationally opened up across EAC; downstream private sector investment leveraged through concessional financing for explorationUSD 750 millionUSD 2.5 billionHydropower420MW of reliable, clean and low-cost hydro developed in WAC1GW of reliable, clean and low-cost hydro de

24、veloped in WAC; downstream river flows regulated to increase all year production and for future projectsUSD 1.2 billionUSD 2 billion14第14頁Lighting AfricaUse of modern off-grid lighting for households and SMEs13.5M+ people already reached scale up to 250M people by 2030Successful collaboration betwee

25、n IFC and WB; active in 8+ countries Examples: Senegal, Tanzania, Ethiopia, etc.Africa Clean Cooking Energy SolutionsFacilitates enterprise-based scale up of clean cooking Builds on both demand and supply side issuesExamples: Uganda, Ethiopia, etc.Isolated mini-grid pilots: the track record is mixed

26、In Senegal & Mali: concession approach to mini-grids seeking private investors to operateIn Tanzania & Ethiopia: operated diesel mini-grids at a loss; increasingly being closed down or connected to the main gridEmerging businesses touting mini-grid approach with new technologies, but to date, harnes

27、sing ideas into replicable and profitable business models has remained elusive Other options supported through IDA and trust-fundsOff-grid solutions for schools, clinics, and public buildings (Example: Sierra Leone)Biogas units for heating, lighting, and cooking (Example: Kenya)Mini hydropower (Exam

28、ple: Zambia)Access: Off-Grid & Mini-Grid Complementing On-Grid15第15頁ContentsSection I Africa Energy Sector OverviewSection II Potential & OpportunitiesSection III WB and IFC ProgramsSection IV Deep Dive on Solar PV in AfricaSummary: Scope for collaboration16第16頁17Leverage private capitalJoint Soluti

29、ons Using All WBG InstrumentsIDAs sector engagement + IFCs long-term lending + MIGAs insurance=第17頁Low Carbon Investment Dominates WBG Energy Lending18第18頁WBG Cumulative Renewable Energy Portfolio and Financing Leverage (FY10-15)19USD 8 Bn$8BIBRD/IDA Financing$18 BTotal Renewable Energy Financing$10

30、BCo-financingRenewable Energy Mapping ProgramSystem Strengthening for integration of Variable Renewable EnergyScaling up solar electricity (focus on Africa)Lighting Africa & Lighting AsiaGlobal Geothermal Plan: Phase IILeveraging private sector Scale up of policy and regulatory work第19頁GenerationAre

31、as of focus: low carbon, low cost generationTransmissionAreas of focus: backbone infrastructure, regional interconnectionDistributionAreas of focus: sector/utility reform, financial viability, tariff review, capacity building, improving efficiency, accessKnowledge and PartnershipsWB Products: An Int

32、egrated Approach Along the Value ChainExample: Scale-up Energy SupplyCrowding in private sector financingMain area for one WBG approachProject preparationExample: Power Pool DevelopmentBuilding institutions: TA for power pools Building infrastructure: Financing, TA, convening powerExample: Scale-up

33、Energy AccessUN SE4All Goal - Universal Access for All by 2030Utility supportOff-grid, mini-gridLeverage internal resources and expand South-to-South cooperation20第20頁P(yáng)olicy dialogueJust-in-time analysis & advisory services Country power sector assessments (Ghana, Kenya, Ethiopia, Madagascar, etc.)T

34、ariff & subsidies reviews; reviews of LCPDPs Utilities benchmarkingHelping Governments to develop and implement sustainable business models for utilitiesSome privatization of state power utilities (Nigeria, Kenya, Cameroon, Uganda)We also work with many public utilities (Senegal, Ghana, Ethiopia)Man

35、agement contracts to support change (Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea)State-of-the-art knowledge sharing WB: Tailored Support to Sector/Utility Reforms21第21頁WB: An Integrated Approach to Country ProgramsKnowledge Economic & sector workTechnical assistancePartnershipFinancing solutionsLending PRGsRE gra

36、ntsPolicy dialogue22第22頁WB: Present in Nearly All SSA Countries Through Lending, Guarantees and Technical Assistance$13 billion under supervision!4,0002,700US$m23第23頁WB: Solar and Geothermal Dominated WB Renewable Energy Portfolio in Africa (FY10-15)24USD 1.5 BnUSD 1.5 Bn第24頁IFC: Investment Products

37、Trade Finance And Supply ChainGuarantee of trade-related payment obligations of approved financial institutionsDerivative and Structured FinanceDerivative products to hedge interest rate, currency, or commodity-price exposures of IFC clientsBlended FinanceAugmenting IFC resources with donor fundsLoa

38、nsProject and corporate financing On-lending through intermediary institutionsA Loans C Loans (Mezzanine Loans)EquityDirect equity investmentsEarly project development funding Private equity fundsIFC Asset Management c.$8.7bn of total assetsIFC InfraVentures - $150m early stage infrastructure invest

39、ment fund.SyndicationsCapital mobilization Over 60 co-financiers: banks, funds, DFIsB LoansParallel LoansManaged CoLending Portfolio ProgramIFC offers a board range of investment products aimed at corporate, trade and project financing needs of its global clientele. Upstream Support (Alongside the W

40、orld Bank)Advisory (Environmental, Governance etc.)Sector reforms support and advocacyTransformational deal structuringExamples of China business arising from IFC activity in Africa: CMEC is the EPC contractor for the Kipeto Wind Project, Goldwinds is a potential turbine supplier for the Lamu wind p

41、roject, PV supply opportunities from IFC Scaling Solar ramp up etc. 25第25頁IFC: Investments in Power (New Business)IFC has a gas and renewables business of around $500m a year as lender/investor of record in sub-Saharan Africa;This translates into projects with an aggregate cost of over US $5bn into

42、Africas gas and renewable power sector over the last 5 years.and our business is growing.Total IFC New Commitment + Mobilization, ($m) Total351.31,256.7823.2470.9666.226第26頁IFC: Africa Infrastructure PortfolioTotal Infrastructure Portfolio ($m) Power Portfolio ($m) by Product * Power Portfolio ($m)

43、by Sub-SectorAs at Q3 IFCs Infrastructure portfolio in Africa stood at $1.2bn, out of which $908m was committed to power projects;Power account for 72% of IFCs total infrastructure investment portfolio;Gas fired thermal projects account for a bulk of IFCs investment value at 32%;Renewable projects (

44、Solar, Wind, and Hydro) account for 30% of IFCs portfolio by value.Debt still forms a large part of IFCs engagement but there has been increased push towards equity.$1.2bn$908m$271m inRenewable Projects47 projects17Renewable Projects* Equity and Loan figures also include Quasi equity and Quasi debt2

45、7第27頁IFC: Co-Financing with Chinese Financial institutions MCPP* & OthersMCPP offers Institutional Investors access to IFCs senior future loan portfolio;It is currently sized at $3bn with the sole investor - Peoples Bank Of China, State Administration Of Foreign Exchange;Recently, additional $1bn of

46、 the MCPP that was approved, now available because the approved financings have fallen by the wayside; MCPP Approvals to IFC Africa Transactions ($m)Distribution of MCPP Approvals to IFC Africa Infrastructure Projects ($m)Total MCPP approvals in Africa as at FY16: $682m approved, $315m committed, IF

47、Cs partnership with Chinese institutions not limited to MCPP. Examples of such engagements include:Tema Port, Ghana (ICBC, and BOC investors);IHS Towers, Nigeria (ICBC investors) etc.$682m, 15 Transactions $353m,8 Projects* Managed Co-Lending Portfolio Program (MCPP)28第28頁ContentsSection I Africa En

48、ergy Sector OverviewSection II Potential & OpportunitiesSection III WB and IFC ProgramsSection IV Deep Dive on Solar PV in AfricaSummary: Scope for collaboration29第29頁Grid-connected solar PV program approach30Challenges 3Continued reliance in fossil fuel based generation despite strong interest in s

49、olar PVLack of confidence in “unproven” technologyLow oil prices slowing the relative need for fast alternativesEnvironment for sector reformProgress on IPPs is slow, large number of unexecuted and unbankable solar PV PPAs.Mixed regulatory environment for renewable energyLack of appropriate planning

50、 and credibility of Government long-term generation planSmall and low-capacity systems with limited ability to integrate solar PVTransmission and distribution bottlenecks remainsResultsLevers Deploying WBG resources to leverage private investmentTechnical assistance and PPP structuring advisory (WB,

51、 IFC)Concessional resources to crowd in private sector financing (IDA, IFC, MIGA)Building in on existing relationships to strengthen the enabling environmentSupport to sector reform and changes to regulation where necessaryInvestment in upstream resource/system assessment and planning“Scaling Solar”

52、 one-stop-shop providing access to combined WBG instruments Standardized and rapid tendering proceduresEnsuring transparency and competition to improve pricing outcomesZambia (USc/kWh)Site 1: 45MWSite 2: 27MWNeoen / First Solar6.01506.1350ENEL Green Power7.79897.8390Access / EREN Zambia 18.28798.400

53、0MULILO Zambia PV18.40008.9509EDF Energies Nouvelles10.04009.9850SEP / AVIC Intl10.600010.6000Zambia: Ensuring speed, competition, and transparency to deliver solar at USc 6.02/kWh in under 1 year by attracting top tier developers (May )第30頁Grid-connected solar PV Pipeline31Scaling SolarZambia | Sca

54、ling Solar Phase 1: 70MW; Phase 2: 200MWTransaction Advisory mandate signed with Industrial Development Corporation (owner of national utility Zesco) for the first phase development of 45MW and 28MW sites. Tender results announced May 31, with record low pricing.Senegal | Scaling Solar Phase 1: 70-1

55、00MW; Phase 2: 100MWTransaction Advisory mandate signed with Ministry of Energy for development of up to 200MW of grid-connected solar PV. Site selection and pre-qualification for first phase 70-100MW expected this Summer for Fall tender.Madagascar | Scaling Solar 40MWTransaction Advisory mandate si

56、gned Spring with Government of Madagascar for development of up to 40MW of grid-connected solar PV.Other IDA operationsNiger | Solar operation 100MWGuarantee and/or other IDA investment in support of Government-led solar PV resource development across multiple sitesMali | Segou Solaire 33MWGuarantee

57、 operation in support of Segou solar site to be developed in collaboration with IFC Infra VenturesWorld Bank Technical AssistanceCatalyzing Grid-Connected solar PV in Sub-Saharan Africa | US$ 1.5 millionBank- executed programmatic technical assistance facility to improve the enabling environment for

58、 solar PV uptake in client countries, including planning, investment identification, and feasibility studies.第31頁Challenges 37Off-grid Program ApproachLevers42k sold7.5 mn soldFull integration of BETFs and IDA in support of the off-grid agendaA programmatic approach modified to suit individual count

59、riesGovernment ownership and level of involvementEmpowering the private sector to deliver off-grid accessFlexibility in response to market development Underestimating the importance and challenges associated with off-grid electrificationTypically small “add-on” activity to projectHigh Transaction co

60、sts of the off-grid solar component; specialized skills neededFailing to differentiate between market segments (institutional vs. retail)Contractors focused on winning bids | had little interest in retailing to other customers. Sustainability concerns: little market uptake of off-grid solarSerious O