全球REIT周度分析報告

1、GlobalResearch25 January2019EquitiesREIT all about it Issue 861EquitiesReal EstateGlobalIn this weeks REIT all about itReal EstateGlobalPerformance OverviewOverthepastweek,GlobalRealEstatehasreturned+0.7%andGlobalEquities+0.5% in USD. Regionally, Hong Kong performed strongest (+3.1%), while Australi

2、a performed weakest (-0.2%), in local currency.Japan - Still bullish on the major real estate developersThe share prices of Japans major real estate developers relative to TOPIX correlate closelywiththeCPI.Ifexpectationsforinflationriseevenmodestlyfromhereon,their sharepricesshouldbenefit,inourview.

3、SumitomoR&Dssharepricehasconsistently outperformed TOPIX since October 2016. The three leading developers shareprices look undemanding at their current levels, trading at a discount to NAV of about 50%. Thegapsthathaveemergedintherealestatedeveloperssharepriceperformanceover the past two years are l

4、argely attributable to differences in their capital efficiency, as demonstratedbyRoE.Awarenessofmanagementeffortstoimprovecapitalefficiency is also steadily increasing. Mitsubishi Estate could commit to the biggest change in governance given the current undervaluation in its share price. At the thre

5、e leading developers, profit from leasing operations generates c.60% of the total, keepingprofit stable. Also, with net D/E ratios at only about 1.2X, Mitsui Fudosan and Mitsubishi Estatehavefairlyrobustfinancescomparedwiththemedium-sizeddevelopers. HYPERLINK /shared/d2a7oNyaF7 (Link)Australia: Fore

6、casting Sydney and Melbourne rents #5Wehave HYPERLINK /shared/d2wqQGHLXdE reviewedtheUBSEvidenceLabofficerentforecastingmodel.Theresultsare mostly positive. After Sydney (c.60% of REIT office portfolios) delivered 15% net effective rent growth in 2018, the forecast for 2019 is 12% (Agency forecast 7

7、%). In Melbourne the forecast is 4% (Agency 3%) in 2019 after delivering 7% in 2018. The datasupportsourupgradeof HYPERLINK /shared/d2IUgsXKW8hiVZ DXStoNeutralandincreasein HYPERLINK /shared/d2Qthq4L7wMtVX PTforGPT.Ourpreferred officeexposuresinorderare:CMA,DXS,GPT,MGR.Acrossthesectorourpreferences

8、are VCX, SCG and GMG. Least preferred names are SGP, and MGR. The market is lookingforcontinuedpressureontheretailsectorandresidentialsectors,leavingoffice and industrial as a default position.Valuation (excluding emerging markets)As of 24th January, our universe under coverage is trading at 10.9% d

9、isc. to our NAV estimate,a2019EP/Eat15.9x,19EDPSyieldat4.0%&weareforecasting2019-20E EPS growth of 5.5%. Net debt to EV is 26%.Figure 1: Total Returns Calendar YTD as of 24 January 2019 (USD)Osmaan Malik,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:osmaan.malik +44-20-75673026Grant McCasker,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:grant.mccas

10、ker +61-2-93243626Michael Lim HYPERLINK mailto:michael-h.lim +65-64955902Edwin Chen,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:edwin.chen edwin.chen+86-105-8328186Toshihiko Okino HYPERLINK mailto:toshihiko.okino +81-3-52086197Charles Boissier, CFA HYPERLINK mailto:charles.boissier +44-20-75684415FrankLee,CFA HYPERLINK ma

11、ilto:frank-a.lee +1-415-352567910%8%6%4%2%0%-2%HongKongUKC.EuropeWorldUSSingapore AustraliaAbsoluteRelative to DomesticEquitiesSource: As of 24 January 2019. Source: FTSE, EPRA, NAREIT, Thomson Reuters Datastream, UBS. Regional/country real estate total return figures calculated using the FTSE EPRA/

12、NAREIT (total return) real estate indices. HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThis report has been prepared by UBS AG London Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ONPAGE30. UBSdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorssho

13、uldbe aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.Performance OverviewThe following charts illustrate the total returns over the week and calend

14、ar year to date.Figure 2: Total Returns for the Week Ending 24 January 2019 (Local Currency)4%3%2%1%0%-1%HongKongContinentalEuropeUnited KingdomWorld (USD)SingaporeJapanAustraliaAbsoluteRelative to Domestic EquitiesNote: As of 24 January 2019. Source: FTSE, EPRA/ NAREIT, Thomson Reuters Datastream,

15、UBS. Regional real estate total return figures calculated using the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT (total return) real estate indices. World shows USD return.Figure 3: Total Returns Calendar YTD as of 24 January 2019 (Local Currency)10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%Hong Kong Continental World (USD) UnitedSingaporeAustraliaJapanEu

16、ropeStatesKingdomAbsoluteRelative to Domestic EquitiesSource: Note:Asof24January2019.Source:FTSE,EPRA,NAREIT,ThomsonReutersDatastream,UBS.Regional realestatetotalreturnfigurescalculatedusingtheFTSEEPRA/NAREIT(totalreturn)realestateindices.World shows USD return.Figure 4: Historical Share Price Perfo

17、rmers for the WeekCompanyCountryPrice ChangeCurrent PricePrice TargetRatingBest Performers:Phoenix MillsIndia8.8%613.70810.00BuyCIFIChina8.3%4.594.50BuyCharter Hall GroupAustralia6.6%7.966.70NeutralBR MallsBrazil5.7%14.2613.50NeutralSavillsUnited Kingdom5.6%808.001075.00BuyWorst Performers:Cushman &

18、 WakefieldUnited States-5.2%15.9820.00BuyIntu PropertiesUnited Kingdom-5.1%106.80110.00NeutralScentreAustralia-3.9%3.914.58BuyJinke PropertyChina-3.8%5.563.70SellDLF LimitedIndia-3.6%177.45220.00BuySource: Company data, Datastream. Note: Prices and ratings as of close 24 January 2019 (in local curre

19、ncy).Key Ratings/Earnings ChangesThe following tables summarize the key ratings and earnings changes that have occurred during the week.Figure 5: Ratings Changes for the WeekCompanyCountryPricePrice TargetCurrent RatingPrevious RatingUpgrades:Dexus Property GrpAustralia11.4511.17NeutralSellDowngrade

20、s:NASource: UBS estimates. Note: Prices and ratings as of close 24 January 2019 (in local currency).Rating19ERating19E 19E EPS ChangeEPSPricePriceTargetCountryCompanyIncreases:FabegeSweden130.48140.00Buy4.92Decreases:NASource:UBSestimatesNote:Pricesandratingsasofclose24January2019(inlocalcurrency).E

21、PSestimates pre-exceptions.USEPSestimatesareAFFO.OnlysignificantEPSchangesof2.5%areincluded.Source: UBS estimates.Note:Pricesandratingsasofclose24January2019(inlocalcurrency).Valuation MetricsWe publish valuation metrics for the global real estate universe (220+ listed real estate companies/REITs un

22、der our coverage) weekly on Mondays. For the latest published, please click here (Global R HYPERLINK /shared/d2KqY3GSE31NbNg eal Estate Valuation Metrics).REIT all about it Issue 861 25 January 2019REIT all about it Issue 861 25 January 2019Priced at close:24-Jan-19Prem/(Disc) tocap UpsidetoPriced a

23、t close:24-Jan-19Prem/(Disc) tocap UpsidetoPTNAVUS$, bnROEFY19eEV/Net P/BP/E EBITDA / EBITDAFY19e FY19e FY19eFY19eEBITDA/EVFY19eFY19eEPS YoY est19-20 20-21Div. yldFY19eNet DebtDPSYoY estLTV/EVTotal ReturnFY19eFY19e3MSource:UBSestimates,Companydata,Datastream.Note:Alltotalsareweightedaveragebymarketc

24、ap.FFOforUSREITs.ROE=dividendyieldpluschangeinNAV.UBShasceasedcoverageofthegroupofJREITs&USREITspendingachangein analyst. In the interim, we have used IBES consensus estimates whereavailable.Australia/NZAustralian Real Estate Sector Update - UBS Evidence Lab inside: Forecasting Sydney and Melbourne

25、rents #5Australian Real Estate Sector Update - UBS Evidence Lab inside: Forecasting Sydney and Melbourne rents #52018 office rents finished strongly, how is 2019 shaping up?WehavereviewedtheUBSEvidenceLabofficerentforecastingmodel.Theresultsaremostlypositive. After Sydney (c.60% of REIT office portf

26、olios) delivered 15% net effective rent growth in 2018, the forecast for 2019 is 12% (Agency forecast 7%). In Melbourne the forecast is 4% (Agency 3%) in 2019 afterdelivering7%in2018.ThedatasupportsourupgradeofDXStoNeutral(PT+19%to$11.17)(link here) and increase in PT for GPT (+8%) (link here). Our

27、preferred office exposures in order are: CMA, DXS,GPT,MGR.AcrossthesectorourpreferencesareVCX,SCGandGMG.Leastpreferrednamesare SGP, and MGR.Whats priced in?The market is looking for continued pressure on the retail sector and residential sectors, leaving office and industrial as a default position.

28、On office, the market is looking for another decent year of office rent growth (Sydney 5-10%, Melbourne c5%) and 10-15bp cap rate compression (sale of the MLC centrewillbecloselytracked)aswellassomeprospectofcorporateactivityiftheofficenameswereto trade cheap.Valuation: DXS PT $11.17 (+19%), GPT PT

29、$5.60 (+8%)NAVs: DXS $11.17 (5.2% cap rate, 10 x corp multiple), GPT $5.72 (5.6% cap rate) MGR NAV $2.23 (5.8% cap rate, 7x corp multiple), CMA $2.58 (6.7% cap rate).Source:ThisisanextractfromUBSresearchpublishedon22January2019Real EstateAnalyst:JamesDruce,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:james.druce james.druc

30、e+61-2-9324 2849GPT Group - What to look for in 2019 for GPT?GPT Group - What to look for in 2019 for GPT?Office rent forecasts reviewedUsing data from UBS Evidence Lab (link), we have reviewed our office rent forecasting model and the resultsaremostlypositivefor2019(+12%inSydneyand+4%inMelbourne).A

31、satJune2018,GPTs Sydney and Melbourne office portfolio (37% of total portfolio inc retail & logistics) was 8% under- rented.WehaveupgradedourNAVandFFOestimatestoreflectongoingimprovementinofficerents. FFO has been upgraded 1-2% in FY19-22. Our 1yr forward NAV estimate is $5.72, up 8% reflecting roll

32、ingforward12monthsandhigherofficevaluations(caprates5%,-25bps).Neutralmaintained.What to look for in 2019 for GPT?1) MLC asset disposal (50% interest): Joint ownership and pre-emptives are likely to limit the pools of capital chasing this asset (GWOF has waived its right). June 2018 book value is $7

33、26.2m (cap rate 4.98%).ThedisposalisexpectedtobeneutraltoFFO.2)OfficevsretailcompNOIgrowth:UBSforecast 2019 office comp NOI of 6-7% (increased occupancy and accessing under-renting) vs retail at 2%. 3) Development pipeline: scrutiny will be on retail re-developments (Sunshine Plaza completing in 201

34、9, followedbyRouseHill).4)Urbanrenewal:formalrezoningofCameliaexpectedin2019(UBSe$120m valuation uplift) and progression of Sydney Olympic Park Masterplan post gazettal being achieved in 2H18.5)2019Guidance:weforecast4.2%growth(consensus4-4.5%g)in2019whichscreenswellin an AREIT context.Whats priced

35、in: Current trading versus peers suggests fair valueOn simplistic valuation metrics GPT is trading at a 9% premium to June 18 NTA vs DXS at a 15% premium(90%office).ApplyingtheDXSpremiumtoGPTsoffice&logisticsportfolioimpliestheretail portfolio is trading at a 10% discount to NTA. This compares with

36、VCX trading at 11% discount and SCGatan8%discount.CurrenttradingversuspeersonanNTAbasissuggestsfairvalue.Valuation: $5.60 Price Target (prior $5.20)Upgrade GPT valuation to FY20 (1yr fwd NAV) to $5.73 reflecting 5.6% property yield (5% office, 5.75% retail, 6.0% logistics). DCF is $5.46 (Discount ra

37、te of 8.1%). Price target is a blend of DCF and NAV. NTA is $5.31.Real EstateRATING: NeutralPrior: Unchanged TARGET: A$5.60 (+7.69%)Prior: A$5.20PRICE: A$5.53MCAP: A$9.96bnEPS ESTIMATES: 12/18E: 0.318(NM%) 12/19E: 0.332(NM%) 12/20E: 0.338(NM%)RIC: GPT.AXBBG: GPT AUAnalyst:Grant McCasker, CFA HYPERLI

38、NK mailto:grant.mccasker grant.mccasker+61-2-9324 3626Source: This is an extract from UBS research published on 22 January 2019Dexus Property Group - Upgrade to NeutralDexus Property Group - Upgrade to Neutral2019 shaping up for another good year for office rentsWeupgradeDXStoNeutralandincreasethePT

39、19%to$11.17.Previouslyweheldtheviewthatoffice supply would pick-up more quickly than expected, there was downside to bullish rent growth expectations and the market would not continue to price in cap rate compression as bond yields bottomed. We now expect supply to remain constrained, another good y

40、ear for rent growth in Sydney (UBS Evidence Lab Data Science forecasting +12%) and Melbourne (+4%) and some cap rate compression(-15bps).FurtherweareattractedtoDXSlowgearingandbalancesheetflexibility(gearing 21%). Altogether, we see DXS trading on a 4.5% DPS yield growing at 5% p.a. medium term (con

41、sensusDPSCAGR4.3%FY19-21).Upsideto6-7%p.a.existsifourupsidethesisplaysout.What to watch in 20191) Sydney and Melbourne net effective rent growth better than 7%/3% respectively 2) Evidence of strongrentalreversioninSydney(10-15%face)&Melbourne(5%face)3)Progresswith201Elizabeth DA and partial sell dow

42、n, locking in trading profits for the medium term 4) Evidence that tenant incentives and maintenance capex continue to decline (UBSe 120bps of assets could fall to 100bps). Success on these fronts could see DPS climb to 6-7% p.a. over the medium term up from 4-5%. Underpinning our investment thesis,

43、 we assume a housing correction but not a crunch, so capital remains available for high quality commercial property. On the downside, transaction evidence may indicatetheendofthecapratecompressioncycleortenantdemandwaneweretheeconomytomove closer to a credit crunch scenario.Changes in assumptions an

44、d earningsWehaveliftedFY21E/22EEPS2-4%andourDPS2-5%.ThisisdrivenbyhighercompNOIassumptions in office to 4.5-5.0% (was 4.0%) and lower opex (1.25% to 1.20% of assets). We have also updated the model for the newly created industrial fund and partial sale to GIC (marginally -0.4% FY19, 0.8% FY21). No r

45、einvestment assumed.Valuation: PT +19% to $11.17 using a fwd SOTP methodologyFwd NAV: $11.17 (5.2% cap rate, 10 x corp costs). +19% PT increase driven by a -50bp change to the forecastcaprate(assumes15bpcapratecompression,was35bpexpansion)asweexpectdirectcapital to continue to demand high quality CB

46、D office.Real EstateRATING: NeutralPrior: Sell TARGET: A$11.17 (+18.96%)Prior: A$9.39PRICE: A$11.11MCAP: A$11.3bnEPS ESTIMATES: 06/19E: 0.66(NM%) 06/20E: 0.69(NM%) 06/21E: 0.73 (+2%)RIC: DXS.AXBBG: DXS AUAnalyst:JamesDruce,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:james.druce james.druce+61-2-9324 2849Source: This is an

47、 extract from UBS research published on 22 January 2019JapanFirst Read Japan Property Snapshot - Tokyo Tatemono announces a 4% share buybackFirst Read Japan Property Snapshot - Tokyo Tatemono announces a 4% share buybackThe major real estate companies could come under pressure to follow suitTokyoTat

48、emono(notcovered)announcedafterthe18Januarymarketclosethatitwouldbuybackup to 10m shares, accounting for 4.61% of those outstanding, for up to 10bn. The company explained that it is doing this to improve its capital efficiency and to reinforce its shareholder returns. Tokyo Tatemono closed at 1,209

49、on 18 January, marking a 63% discount to NAV of 3,306 based on the market value of its rental properties as at the end of December 2017, according to the companys own disclosure. The other major real estate companies share prices are currently weak as well: Mitsubishi Estateistradingata53%discountto

50、NAVwhileMitsuiFudosanisata48%discount.Bothcompanies are trading at implied cap rates of over 7%. In the current market, when a yield of only around 5% at best can be expected even on the purchase of land in central Tokyo or Manhattan for office building development,buyingbacksharesmaybetherightchoic

51、etomakefromacapitalallocationstandpoint. Tokyo Tatemonos decision could potentially put the major real estate companies under pressure to commit to share buybacks of their own.Source:ThisisanextractfromUBSresearchpublishedon18January2019Real EstateAnalyst:Toshihiko Okino HYPERLINK mailto:toshihiko.o

52、kino toshihiko.okino+81-3-5208 6197First Read Japan Property Snapshot - Metro Tokyo new-build condo sales slow suddenlyFirst Read Japan Property Snapshot - Metro Tokyo new-build condo sales slow suddenlyContract ratio falls below 50% for the first time in nearly 30 yearsAccording to an announcement

53、by Japans Real Estate Economic Institute, the contract ratio for the metropolitan Tokyo condominium market was 49.4% in December 2018, putting it below the 50% benchmark for the first time in almost 30 years, since August 1991. Meanwhile, inventories soared, reaching 9,552 units at the end of Decemb

54、er, up from 6,749 units a month earlier. This is the first time in about ten years, since February 2009, that the 9,000 level has been exceeded.No need to view this too negatively as it was due partly to a one-off factorThisdropbelow50%andnear-3,000unitriseininventoryseemstohavestemmedfromasuddenmom

55、 increase, of 4,001 units, to 7,462 units, in new supply in December. We think this may well have been duetoheavysupplybysomedevelopersinNovemberandDecemberinanefforttosecurestrongannual volume figures. Although the outlook for the condo market is not particularly bright, we see no need viewitwithun

56、dueconcernsimplybecauseofthisresultforDecember.Wearenotawareofanysharp deterioration in new condo sales at the leading property developers over the past few months. Our understanding is that they remain firm.No change in our bullish view on the major real estate companiesAlthough we are not that opt

57、imistic on the outlook for the condo market, we note that profit from condosalesonlyaccountsforabout10%ofOPatMitsuiFudosanandMitsubishiEstate.Around60% comesfromleasingoperations,whichkeepsprofitstable.Weremainbullishontheleadingrealestate companies.Source:ThisisanextractfromUBSresearchpublishedon22

58、January2019Real EstateAnalyst:Toshihiko Okino HYPERLINK mailto:toshihiko.okino toshihiko.okino+81-3-5208 6197Real Estate Developer Update - Still bullish on the major real estate developersReal Estate Developer Update - Still bullish on the major real estate developersRising expectations for inflati

59、on would be a tailwind for share pricesThesharepricesofJapansmajorrealestatedevelopersrelativetoTOPIXcorrelatecloselywiththeCPI.If expectationsforinflationriseevenmodestlyfromhereon,theirsharepricesshouldbenefit,inourview. SumitomoR&DssharepricehasconsistentlyoutperformedTOPIXsinceOctober2016.Thethr

60、eeleading developerssharepriceslookundemandingattheircurrentlevels,tradingatadiscounttoNAVofabout 50%.Possibility of changes in governanceThe gaps that have emerged in the real estate developers share price performance over the past two yearsarelargelyattributabletodifferencesintheircapitalefficienc