美國(guó)必需品消費(fèi)Q1 EPS預(yù)覽

1、COREU.S. Consumer Staples1Q19 “All Consumer” EPS PreviewComingoutofCAGNY,wesensedaclear,continuedemphasisondrivingsustainable, balancedgrowthfrommostStaplescompanies-whichwebelievewaswellreceivedby investors.Withthisinmindheadingintothe1Q19earningsseason,wethinktheresa certaindegreeofcautiousoptimis

2、mwithregardtomanynameswithinourcoverage. Asweparsethroughhowtheoutlookforthegroupisevolvingduringthenextfew weeksofreporting,wellbeparticularlyfocusedonthefollowingthreekeytopicsthatINDUSTRY UPDATEU.S. CHPC & BeveragesNEUTRALUnchangedU.S. Food NEUTRAL EquityResearch8 April2019al n rten Ial n rten I-

3、d e tc itr sReWith reinvestment initiatives underway at many (if not most) of the companies under our coverage, we believe investors will look for incremental visibility on bettertop-linegrowth.Giventhisbackdrop,ourprimaryconcernisthatimprovement maybeunlikelytomanifestnotonlyin1Qbutpotentiallyinsub

4、sequentquarters,as wereremindedthatcompaniesthathaveachievedmeaningfultop-lineimprovement (e.g.P&G,KO)tookyears(notquarters)formomentumtofullybuild.Wecancertainly understandtherationaleforpositioninginsomeofthese“re-base”storiesgiven visibility(andadegreeoffearofmissingout),althoughwethinkthepathtob

5、etter resultsmaynotbelinear,andfranklymaytakeabitlongertoplayoutthansome anticipate.Given that the majority of Staples names have guided to (or broadly discussed) a net pricing benefit this year, well be focused on whether this is reflected in P&Ls, and if expectations have changed around the longer

6、-term impact (including with respect tovolumeelasticity).Notably,asweaddressedinajointreportwithourU.S.Food& StaplesRetailinganalystKarenShortlastFriday(see HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2448361 ThePricingDebate:Factor HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2448361 F(r

7、)iction?; 04/05/19), while the majority of CPG players have discussed effectively takingpricetooffsetinflation,bycontrast,retailershavediscussedabenigninflationary environment.Webelievetherecouldbeafewreasonsforthedisconnect,includingthat retailersarelikelyabsorbingsomeofthepriceincreases.Assuch,whi

8、lewewould expectmarginstobenefitcloserin,thesustainabilityofanypricingactionscurrentlyin themarketshouldbeabuildingthemeas2019progresses.Portfolio reshaping efforts remain underway, but it remains to be seen how much of animpactthiscouldbringtoP&Ls.Whileperhapsabitmorepackagedfoodoriented, wewouldno

9、tethatmanycompanies(includingCAG,CPB,GIS,K,andKHC)have indicatedadesiretodivestassetsasameansofreshapingtop-linegrowthprofilesand de-levering.Whilewewouldnotnecessarilyexpectanyupdatesuntiltransactionshave beenfinalized,webelieveinvestorswillbesensitivetoanysuggestionsaroundthe potentiallevelofdilut

10、ionassetsalescouldwellbring,andhowCPGcompanies currentlyviewtheoverallM&Aenvironment(asitcouldhaveimplicationsaroundthe abilitytode-levermorerapidly).ofandtodoAsabethathaveathattheofasaForafulllistofourratings,pricetargetand earningschangesinthisreport,pleasesee tableonpage2. U.S. CHPC & Beverages L

11、auren R. Lieberman+1 212 526 3112 HYPERLINK mailto:lauren.lieberman lauren.lieberman BCI, USU.S. FoodAndrew Lazar+1 212 526 4668 HYPERLINK mailto:andrew.lazar andrew.lazar BCI, USOther Team MembersKate Grafstein+1 212 526 5755 HYPERLINK mailto:kate.grafstein kate.grafstein BCI, USShirley C. Serrao,

12、CFA+1 212 526 7518 HYPERLINK mailto:shirley.serrao shirley.serrao BCI, USGalya Laskar+1 212 526 4008 HYPERLINK mailto:galya.laskar galya.laskar BCI, USSamuel High, CFA+1 212 526 9382 HYPERLINK mailto:samuel.high samuel.high BCI, USJoshua Bader, CPA, CFA+1 212 526 3084 HYPERLINK mailto:joshua.bader j

13、oshua.bader BCI, USSummary of our Ratings, Price Targets and Earnings Changes in this Report (all changes are shown in bold)CompanyRatingPricePriceTargetEPSFY1(E)EPS FY2(E)OldNew05-Apr-19OldNew%ChgOldNew%ChgOldNew%ChgU.S. CHPC & BeveragesNeuNeu HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=AVP Avon Pro

14、ducts (AVP)EWEW2.973.003.00-0.100.10-0.280.27-4 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=CLX Clorox Company (CLX)EWEW155.60142.00142.00-6.206.2516.486.683 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=CL Colgate-Palmolive (CL)EWEW67.9258.0058.00-2.842.8613.083.101 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?

15、ticker=KDP Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP)OWOW27.3131.0031.00-1.211.21-1.471.43-3 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=KMB Kimberly-Clark Corp. (KMB)EWEW121.92109.00109.00-6.606.6206.956.970 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=TAP Molson Coors Brewing Company (TAP)OWOW60.6373.0073.00-4.844.8204.

16、954.930 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=PEP PepsiCo Inc. (PEP)EWEW121.62111.00111.00-5.525.52-5.945.920U.S. FoodNeuNeu HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=NOMD Nomad Foods Ltd. (NOMD)OWOW20.6524.0024.00-1.321.21-81.401.25-11 HYPERLINK /BC/composite/GER_COMPANY?ticker=KHC The Kraft

17、Heinz Company (KHC)EWEW33.1737.0037.00-2.832.8612.902.931Source:BarclaysResearch.SharepricesandtargetpricesareshownintheprimarylistingcurrencyandEPSestimatesareshowninthereportingcurrency. FY1(E):CurrentfiscalyearestimatesbyBarclaysResearch.FY2(E):NextfiscalyearestimatesbyBarclaysResearch.StockRatin

18、g:OW:Overweight;EW:EqualWeight;UW:Underweight;RS:RatingSuspended IndustryView:Pos:Positive;Neu:Neutral;Neg:NegativeTABLE OF HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 CONSOLIDATEDBARCLAYSRESEARCHESTIMATES5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 CONSOLIDATEDEARNINGSCALLINFORMATION6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 1Q19CHEATSHEET7 HYPERLINK l _bo

19、okmark3 1Q19 CHEATSHEETCONTINUED8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 1Q19 CHEATSHEETCONTINUED9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 1Q19 CHEATSHEETCONTINUED10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 1Q19 CHEATSHEETCONTINUED11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 04/17/19PEPSICO12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 04/22/19KIMBERLY-CLARK13 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 04/23

20、/19THECOCA-COLACOMPANY14 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 04/23/19PROCTER&GAMBLE15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 04/25/19THEHERSHEYCOMPANY16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 04/26/19COLGATEPALMOLIVECOMPANY17 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 WEEKOF04/29/19OR05/06/19B&GFOODS(TENTATIVE)18 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 04/30/19COCA-COLAEUROP

21、EANPARTNERS19 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 04/30/19MONDELEZINTERNATIONAL(TENTATIVE)20 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 05/01/19 OR 05/02/19 THE KRAFT HEINZ COMPANY HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 (TENTATIVE) HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 05/01/19THECLOROXCOMPANY22 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 05/01/19THE ESTEELAUDERCOMPANIES23 HYPE

22、RLINK l _bookmark19 05/01/19MOLSON COORSBREWINGCOMPANY24 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 05/02/19AVONPRODUCTS(TENTATIVE)25 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 05/02/19CHURCH&DWIGHT26 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 05/02/19EDGEWELLPERSONALCARECOMPANY(TENTATIVE)27 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 05/02/19KELLOGGCOMPANY28 HYPERLINK l _bo

23、okmark24 05/02/19POSTHOLDINGS(TENTATIVE)29 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 05/02/19TREEHOUSEFOODS30 HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 05/06/19INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 (TENTATIVE) HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 05/07/19ENERGIZERHOLDINGS32 HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 05/07/19HAINCELESTIAL(TENTATI

24、VE)33 HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 05/08/19COTYINC34 HYPERLINK l _bookmark30 05/09/19NOMADFOODSLTD.(TENTATIVE)35 HYPERLINK l _bookmark31 06/05/19CAMPBELLSOUPCOMPANY(TENTATIVE)36 HYPERLINK l _bookmark32 06/06/19THEJ.M.SMUCKERCOMPANY(TENTATIVE)37 HYPERLINK l _bookmark33 TOBEANNOUNCEDKEURIGDRPEPPER38 HYPERL

25、INK l _bookmark34 TOBEANNOUNCEDNEWELLBRANDS39CONSOLIDATED BARCLAYS RESEARCH ESTIMATESTickerCurrent Fisc. QtrRelease DateBarclays CurrentFisc.QtrCons.CurrentFisc.Qtr$ Diff vs. Cons.BarclaysCurrentFisc.YrCons.CurrentFisc.Yr$ Diff vs. Cons.Barclays EPS ForwardFisc. YrCons. EPS ForwardFisc. Yr$ Diff vs.

26、 Cons.PEP1Q1904/17/190.940.92$0.025.525.51$0.015.925.94($0.02)KMB1Q1904/22/191.551.55-6.626.60$0.026.976.94$0.03KO1Q1904/23/190.460.46-2.092.10($0.01)2.262.25$0.01PGF3Q1904/23/191.011.03($0.02)4.434.44($0.01)4.764.75$0.01HSY1Q1904/25/191.441.46($0.02)5.655.64$0.015.995.92$0.07CL1Q1904/26/190.630.66(

27、$0.03)2.862.83$0.033.103.01$0.09BGS1Q19Week of 04/29/19 or0.500.49$0.011.851.84$0.011.981.92$0.0605/06/19 (Tentative)CCE1Q1904/30/19MDLZ1Q194/30/2019 (Tentative)0.610.61$0.002.482.48-2.662.67($0.01)KHC1Q1905/01/19 or 05/02/19 (Tentative)0.590.62($0.03)2.862.80$0.062.932.92$0.01CLXF3Q1905/01/191.431.

28、46($0.03)6.256.33($0.08)6.686.74($0.06)ELF3Q1905/01/191.321.29$0.035.065.04$0.025.565.59($0.03)TAP1Q1905/01/190.600.60-4.824.77$0.054.934.94($0.01)AVP1Q1905/02/2019 (Tentative)(0.02)0.01($0.03)0.100.09$0.010.270.20$0.07CHD1Q1905/02/190.650.66($0.01)2.442.47($0.03)2.632.65($0.02)EPC2Q1905/02/2019 (Te

29、ntative)1.001.00-3.293.44($0.15)3.313.60($0.29)K1Q1905/02/190.960.95$0.013.843.96($0.12)4.034.25($0.22)POSTF2Q1905/02/19 (Tentative)1.161.13$0.035.105.00$0.106.425.96$0.46THS1Q1905/02/190.100.11($0.01)2.562.55$0.012.822.99($0.17)IFF1Q1905/06/19 (Tentative)1.521.54($0.02)6.306.35($0.05)6.987.05($0.07

30、)ENR2Q1905/07/190.260.23$0.033.113.02$0.093.423.46($0.04)HAINF3Q1905/07/19 (Tentative)0.200.21($0.01)0.650.65($0.00)0.800.80-COTYF3Q1905/08/190.110.13($0.02)0.680.64$0.040.720.73($0.01)NOMD1Q1905/09/19 (Tentative)0.370.35 0.021.211.21 0.001.251.28( 0.03)CPBF3Q1906/05/19 (Tentative)0.490.48$0.012.482

31、.47$0.012.522.54($0.02)SJMF4Q1906/06/19 (Tentative)1.891.95($0.06)8.108.12($0.02)8.348.31$0.03KDP1Q19To Be Announced0.240.24-1.211.21-1.431.40$0.03NWL1Q19To Be Announced0.060.06-1.611.57$0.041.371.47($0.10)Source: Barclays Research Estimates, RefinitivCONSOLIDATED EARNINGS CALL INFORMATIONCurrentRel

32、easeReportingConferenceDial InDial InTickerFisc. QtrDateTime (ET)Call Time (ET)(US)(Intl)PasscodePEP1Q194357200%6:00 AM ET7:45 AM ETTBATBATBAKMB1Q194357700%7:30 AM ET10:00 AM ETKO1Q194357800%BMO8:30 AM ET1-877-886-75231-262-558-4760COKE IRPGF3Q194357800%7:00 AM ET8:30 AM ET1- 800-239-98381-323-794-2

33、5518852678HSY1Q194358000%BMO8:30 AM ET(866) 342-8591(203) 518-9797THC1Q19CL1Q194358100%7:00 AM ET11:00 AM ETBGS1Q19Weekof04/29/19or 05/06/19(Tentative)AMC4:30 PM ETTBATBA-CCEP1Q194358500%2:00 AM ETTBATBATBA-MDLZ1Q194/30/2019 (Tentative)4:05 PM ET5:00 PM ETTBATBA-KHC1Q1905/01/19 or 05/02/19 (Tentativ

34、e)AMC5:00 PM ETTBATBA-CLXF3Q194358600%6:30 AM ET1:30 AM ETELF3Q194358600%BMO9:30 AM ETTAP1Q194358600%BMOTBATBATBA-AVP1Q1905/02/2019 (Tentative)BMO9:00 AM ET877-407-0789201-689-8562No passcodeCHD1Q194358700%7:00 AM ET10:00 AM ET877-322-9846631-291-45393499666EPC2Q1905/02/2019 (Tentative)6:00 AM ET10:

35、00 AM ETK1Q194358700%8:00 AM ET9:30 AM ET(855) 209-8258(412) 542-4104-POSTF2Q1905/02/19 (Tentative)AMC9:00AMET(nextday)TBATBA-THS1Q194358700%BMO8:30 AM ET(866) 524-3160(412) 317-6760-IFF1Q1905/06/19 (Tentative)4:05 PM ET10:00AMET(nextday)ENR2Q194359200%6:50 AM ET10:00 AM ETHAINF3Q1905/07/19 (Tentati

36、ve)BMO8:30 AM ETTBATBA-COTYF3Q194359300%BMONOMD1Q1905/09/19 (Tentative)BMO8:30 AM ETTBATBA-CPBF3Q1906/05/19 (Tentative)BMO8:30 AM ETTBATBA-SJMF4Q1906/06/19 (Tentative)BMO8:30 AM ETTBATBA-KDP1Q19To Be AnnouncedTBATBATBATBA-NWL1Q19To Be Announced6:30 AM ET8:30 AM ETSource: Barclays Research Estimates,

37、 Refinitiv1Q19 CHEATSHEETC1Q19TickerBarclaysConsensusDifferenceNotesEPSDifferencesWhatCareBarclays One-LinerWere 40 bps ahead on top- - Organic sales growth momentumline and 30 bps ahead onWithsolidEPSvisibilitythisyear,includingin1Q,PEPsharesshouldPEP-US$0.94$0.92$0.02margin,givensolid-Commentaryon

38、planstoimprovetrendsbesafetoownatpresent.Thatbeingsaid,thekeyquestiontousisperformanceFLNAand -Additionalcoloroninternationalsnackingexpansionwhetherthisyearswillprovetodrivemulti-year+MSDstrategytop-line and +HSD EPS growth.ample cost flexibilityWhileweareslightly-Impactofpriceincreasesbroughttomar

39、ketin4Q/1Q acrossTissueandPersonalCareWith2019guidancereflectingafairlytameoutlookorganicsales& earningsgrowth,werelittleinthewayofnegativesurprises$1.55$1.55$0.00theStreetontop-line,were -Strategystabilizingtop-linetrendsintheU.S.andD&Ethisquarter.Thatsaid,longer-term,westillalittleinthedarkasabove

40、 on margins.markets (ex-inflationary pricing in Argentina)us,themostinterestingchangeinsentimentweverecently isthemarketus,themostinterestingchangeinsentimentweverecently isthemarketthe2019reportedEPSguidanceshortfallwith questionsastowhetherthebusinessremainsontrackfundamentally.Wethinkthetwoareunr

41、elatedandunderlyingmomentumcontinues-PlansCostaandlapdynamicspressureorganic sales (+2.6%)$0.00margin.Sellingday,Easter -Globalmacrocommentary$0.46$0.46KO-USWere -60 bps below on top-lineandbpsaheadon -Organicsalesmomentumandtrajectoryvs.full-yearplantowhatcoulddriveanaccelerationinthecompanystop-li

42、ne trajectoryorprofitabilitylevels.PG-US$1.01$1.03Weare$0.02/shbelow Consensustomarginassumptions.U.S.organicsalesgrowthincludingpricingandvolume elasticityPricingindevelopingmarketsMarginpressureinnovationandvolume leverageasanhasthepasttwoquartersthatitcangroworganic salesat+4%,wethinkthisfact,ina

43、dditiontofavorablecommentary atCAGNY(“continuedmomentuminJanuary&February)andstrongU.S.Nielsendatathrough3/23/19(+3.9%inlatest12W+3.0%in prior12W),supportahigherbarofgrowththebalanceof theyear.Thatsaid,wethinkthestockalreadyreflectsthisinvaluationwithPGsharestradingata+36%premiumtotheS&P.Weareabovet

44、heStreetonUpdated2019WerecognizealongerEasterseasoncouldwella+2ptYOY to1Q19organicsales.However,barringastrongstarttotheHSY-US$1.44$1.46organicslightly -Organictop-linetrends,particularlyinNorthAmericayear,webelieveasinvestorsstarttoontheremainderofthebelowtheStreetoperatingmargin-Commentaryonflowth

45、roughofpricingactionsand volumeelasticityyearcouldunfold,thenarrativecouldwellbemoretempered particularlywithsharestradingat+30%premiumtothelarge-cap group(vs.itshistorical+15%premium).While1QearningswillbeCEOWallacesfirstearningscallinWerebelowConsensus -SalestrendsinNorthAmericaincludingtheimpacto

46、fthedriversseat,hispresentationattheCAGNYCL-US$0.63$0.66to the phasing of gross marginprogressioninmodelPCA/EltaMD,shipmenttimingandtheTotalrelaunch.SustainabilityofstrengthinHillsandimpactof Science/Prescriptiondietrelaunchactivitybrandrelaunchactivityandpricinginitiativessuggestastrategyto turnaro

47、undtop-linetrendsisalreadyinplay.wellbecurious togaugetheseinitiativesareprovingintheirearly days.Source: Barclays Research Estimates, RefinitivC1Q19TickerBarclaysConsensusDifferenceNotes on EPS DifferencesWhat People Care About This Quarter?Barclays One-LinerBGS-US$0.50$0.49$0.01WearebelowtheStreet

48、on organic and on operatingmarginUpdated 2019guidanceUpdateonpricingactions,includingpromoProgressoncostsavingsinitiativesUpdatedexpectationsaroundinflationarypressuresCash flowgenerationWewillbelookingvisibilityontheabilitypricetoflowthroughtothebottomlineandcostsavingsinitiativesto cometofruition,

49、whichBGSviewsasthekeydriversofitsfullyear 2019algorithm.CCE-USEastershiftandsugartax-OrganicsalesCCE-USEastershiftandsugartax-Organicsalesmomentumanycommentaryonoutlookgivenprice/mixinitiatives,diversificationandoutletexpansionpressure volume, despite - 2.5% decline in 1Q18WeareabovetheStreetonCCEPw

50、illissueatradingupdateinsteadoffullfinancial resultsColoronplans,includingCostaUpdated 2019guidanceWe another solid year of top & bottom line growth CCEP,We remain comfortable with our above Consensus organic salesorganicandslightly-Organictop-linetrendsforecast for 1Q19 and 2019. In short, we would

51、 not be surprised ifMDLZ-US$0.61$0.61$0.00KHC-US$0.59$0.62CLX-US$1.43$1.46EL-US$1.32$1.29$0.03abovetheStreeton operatingmarginWearebelowtheStreeton organic and operatingmarginWerebelowConsensustoacombinationoflower sales, less favorable marginsandahighertax rateinmodel.WeareaheadofConsensus on both

52、growth andmargins.CommentaryontheemergingmarketCommentaryonNorthAmericasupplychainCommentaryonBrexitimplicationsUpdated2019guidancewhichreaffirms4Q18expectationsOrganictop-linetrends,includingwhetherpricingison tracktheremainderoftheyearCommentaryonreinvestmentmovingforwardCommentaryonpotentialdives

53、tituresSustainabilityoforganicsalesgrowthandspecifically volumeresponsetopricingbeingintothemarketCompetitiveresponsetopriceinTrashTotalcompanyunderlyingorganicsalesgrowth(guidance isexcluding2ptaccountingGrowthChina,HKandRetailAccelerationinUSgivenlappingBonliquidation1Q19earningsresults,whilelikel

54、yacatalystinisolation,could wellbeinstrumentalinpushingthelong-termmulti-nationalbalanced algorithm narrativeforward.Withsharestradingata11xEV/EBITDAmultipleon2019EBITDA forecastof$6.4bn(a-14%discounttothegrouponaCY19basis),we couldunderstandsomeinvestorscouldviewthestoryasrisked,sotospeak.However,w

55、ebelievemoreclarityislikelyaroundtheimpactofpotentialdivestituresmovingforward,whileit willalsotakesomequartersofEBITDAresultscominginline(ifbetterthan)expectationswebelievesentimentcouldshiftmore meaningfully.Cloroxsongrowthviainnovationandinvestmentsbehinddata analyticsputsthecompanyinapositionofr

56、elativestrengthits lessinnovativewhenittoretailernegotiations.Whilewe thecompanytosuccessfullyitspriceincreasesinthe long-run,wecouldseesomevolumeshakinessintheshort-runas consumersadjusttolevels.ELshareshaveamongthestrongestinConsumerStaples(+25%vs.XLP+10%)asthecompanycontinuestodemonstratethe sust

57、ainabilityofitsmultipleofgrowthmodelandtheample flexibilitywithinitstodeliveronitsstatedEPSguidanceaswellas reinvestintoitsmostpromisinggrowthopportunitiestogrowth manyyearstoInF3Q19,wethinkexpectationsareunderlyingsalesgrowth(excludingadoptionofASC606)abovethe highofguidancei.e.,northof+9%.Source:

58、Barclays Research Estimates, RefinitivC1Q19TickerBarclaysConsensusDifferenceNotes on EPS DifferencesWhat People Care About This Quarter?Barclays One-LinerWere-1.3%belowonsales- Commentary on cash return plansWebelievecanpositionitselfasacompellingcashreturnstorybyTAP-US$0.60$0.60$0.00asisbetterstill

59、- Update on new product and marketing plansinstatingsharerepurchasethisyear.Fundamentally,whilethepathpressured, assume BTL- Cost savings and inflation outlookforwardremainschallenging,weresensingamoreproactivetop-lineitems offset- Cannabis JV updateapproach from the companyWerebelowonExamplesofimpr

60、ovingaspartofUpwethinkquarterlyresultsmatterlittleatthispoint,wed($0.02)$0.01thetoplineanda greater of reinvestment than in1Q19.StrategytrendsinkeymarketsincludingBrazil,Russiaand MexicoTop-linemomentumintrackedchannelsandtowhatsimplypointtothekeyKPIswearewatching:averagesizeand priceunit.In1Q19were