考研英語外報閱讀8

Passage1:ItpaystogiveAllowingconsumerstosettheirownpricescanbegoodforbusiness;evenbetterifthefirmsgivesomeofittocharityINOCTOBER2007Radiohead,aBritishrockgroup,releaseditsfirstalbuminfouryears,“InRainbows”,asadirectdigitaldownload.Themovedrewafairbitofattention(includingfromthisnewspaper)notonlybecauseitrepresentedatechnologicalthumbintheeyetothetraditionalmusicindustry,butalsobecausethebandallowedlistenerstopaywhatevertheywishedforit.Some60%ofthosewhoseizedtheopportunitypaidnothingatall,butthebandseemedpleasedwiththeresult;oneestimatehaditearningnearly$3mfromtheexperiment.OnegroupoutsidethemusicindustrytakinganinterestwasatrioofprofessorsthenattheRadySchoolofManagementattheUniversityofCalifornia,SanDiego:AyeletGneezy,UriGneezyandLeifNelson(whoisnowattheHaasSchoolofBusinessattheUniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley).Inspired,theydesignedaseriesofexperimentstogaugewhetherpay-what-you-wantpricingwouldworkforotherbusinesses.Theirmostrecentexperiment,co-authoredwithAmberBrownofDisneyResearchandpublishedinScience,alsostirredinanewelement:woulditmakeanydifferenceiffirmsdonatedsomeofthepay-what-you-wantfeetocharity?Theauthorssetuptheirpricingexperimentattheexitofaroller-coasterrideatalargeamusementpark.Riderswereofferedaphotographofthemselves,snappedmid-coast.Theusualpricewas$12.95,butononeday,ridersweretoldtheycouldpaywhattheywished,includingtakingthephotoforfree.Asecondgroupwaschargedthefullpricebuttoldthathalfthemoneywouldgotoawell-regardedhealthcharity.Yetathirdgroupcouldsetthepriceandseehalfoftheirchosenamountdonated.Allowingcustomerstosetthepricedramaticallyincreasedthepercentageofbuyers—fromlessthan1%to8%.Evenaccountingforthosewhotookafreephoto,theamusementparkcollectedmorerevenueonthepay-what-you-wantdaythanwhensellingfortheusualfixedprice.Theauthorsalsofoundthatofthecustomerswhowereallowedtopaywhattheywant,thosewhoweretoldthathalfthemoneywouldgotoagoodcausepaidsubstantiallymorethanthosewhowerenottoldaboutthecharitabledonation—tothepointthatrevenuemorethantripled.(Thecharitydid,indeed,getitspromisedcut.)Thesmallestnumberofpurchases,meanwhile,camethedaythatcustomershadtopaythefull$12.95buthalfwasdonated.Thereforemorethansimplealtruismwasmotivatingthecustomerswhogavemoneyforaphototheycouldhavehadforfree.4tOneofthequirksaboutpayingwhatyouwant,^^suggestsMrNelson,“isthatitstartstosignalsomethingaboutwhoyouare.Everydollaryouspendisadirectreflectionofhowmuchyoucareaboutthischarityandwhatkindofpersonyouare.Noonewantstogocheapwithacharity.^^Hecallsthisphenomenon“sharedsocialresponsibility^^:insteadofpassivelyacceptingafirm'sassertionofitscharitabledonations,thecustomermustactivelyagreetogivemoneytocharity,anddeterminehowmuch.Buthowwidespreadcouldsharedsocialresponsibilitybe?MsGneezyisthefirsttopointoutthatcustomer-determinedpricingworksbestforproductswithlowmarginalcosts.Sincepublishingtheirfindings,theresearchershavespokentoseveralcompaniesinterestedinpursuingsimilarexperimentswiththeirproducts,includingsoftwaredevelopersandvideo-gamedesigners.Butofferingflexiblepricingonavirtualproductonline,insteadofinpersonatanamusementpark,maymakeiteasierforpeopleto“gocheap“evenifacharityisinvolved.Combiningcustomer-determinedpricing,corporatesocialresponsibility,andincreasedprofitswillbetrickytopulloff,andnoteverycompanywillbeabletodoit-justlikenoteverybandcanputtheiralbumonlineforfreeandstillprofit.Passage2:Whydofirmsexist?RonaldCoase,theauthorof“TheNatureoftheFirm^^(1937),turns100onDecember29thFORphilosophersthegreatexistentialquestionis:"Whyistheresomethingratherthannothing?^^Formanagementtheoriststhemoremundaneequivalentis:"Whydofirmsexist?Whyisn'teverythingdonebythemarket?^^Todaymostpeopleliveinamarketeconomy,andcentralplanningisrememberedasthegreatesteconomicdisasterofthe20thcentury.Yetmostpeoplealsospendtheirworkinglivesincentrallyplannedbureaucraciescalledfirms.Theystickwiththesameemployerforyears,ratherthanregularlyreturningtothejobsmarket.Theylabourtofulfilthe''strategicplans“oftheircorporatecommissars.JohnJacobAstofsAmericanFurCompanymadehimtherichestmaninAmericainthe1840s.Butitneverconsistedofmorethanahandfulofpeople.TodayAstor'scompanywouldnotregisterasabliponthecorporatehorizon.Firmsroutinelyemploythousandsofworkersandmovebillionsofdollars-worthofgoodsandserviceswithintheirborders.Whyhavethese"islandsofconsciouspower“survivedinthesurrounding“oceanofunconsciousco-operation^^,toborrowaphrasefromD.H.Robertson,aneconomist?Classicaleconomicshadlittletosayaboutthisquestion.AdamSmithopened“TheWealthofNations^^withawonderfuldescriptionofthedivisionoflabourinapinfactory,buthesaidnothingaboutthebosseswhohiredthepin-makersorthemanagerswhoorganisedthem.Smith'ssuccessorssaidevenless,eitherignoringthepinfactoryentirelyortreatingitasatediousblackbox.Theypreferredtofocusonthesearatherthantheislands.Whoknowsthesecretoftheblackbox?Themanwhorestoredthepinfactorytoitsrightfulplaceattheheartofeconomictheorycelebrateshis100thbirthdayonDecember29th.TheeconomicsprofessionwasslowtorecogniseRonaldCoase'sgenius.HefirstexpoundedhisthinkingaboutthefirminalectureinDundeein1932,whenhewasjust21yearsold.Nobodymuchlistened.Hepublished”TheNatureoftheFirm^^fiveyearslater.Itwentlargelyunread.ButMrCoaselabouredonregardless:asecondseminalarticleon”TheProblemofSocialCost“l(fā)aidtheintellectualfoundationsofthederegulationrevolutionofthe1980s.Eventually,MrCoaseacquiredanarmyoffollowers,suchasOliverWilliamson,whofleshedouthisideas.In1991,aged80,hewasawardedaNobelprize.Farfromrestingonhislaurels,MrCoasewillpublishanewbookin2011,withNingWangofArizonaStateUniversity,on“HowChinaBecameCapitalist”.Hiscentralinsightwasthatfirmsexistbecausegoingtothemarketallthetimecanimposeheavytransactioncosts.Youneedtohireworkers,negotiatepricesandenforcecontracts,tonamebutthreetime-consumingactivities.Afirmisessentiallyadeviceforcreatinglong-termcontractswhenshort-termcontractsaretoobothersome.Butifmarketsaresoinefficient,whydon'tfirmsgoongettingbiggerforever?MrCoasealsopointedoutthattheselittleplannedsocietiesimposetransactioncostsoftheirown,whichtendtoriseastheygrowbigger.Theproperbalancebetweenhierarchiesandmarketsisconstantlyrecalibratedbytheforcesofcompetition:entrepreneursmaychoosetolowertransactioncostsbyformingfirmsbutgiantfirmseventuallybecomesluggishanduncompetitive.Howmuchlightdoes“TheNatureoftheFirm^^throwontoday5scorporatelandscape?TheyoungMrCoasefirstgrewinterestedintheworkingsoffirmswhenhetravelledaroundAmerica'sindustrialheartlandonascholarshipin1931-32.Heabandonedhistextbooksandaskedbusinessmenwhytheydidwhattheydid.Hehaslongchidedhisfelloweconomistsforscrawlinghieroglyphicsonblackboardsratherthanlookingatwhatitactuallytakestorunabusiness.Soitseemsreasonabletotesthisideasbythesameempiricalstandards.MrCoase'stheorycontinuestoexplainsomeofthemostpuzzlingproblemsinmodernbusiness.Taketheriseofvastandhighlydiversifiedbusinessgroupsintheemergingworld,suchasIndia'sTatagroupandTurkey5sKocHolding.ManyWesternobserversdismisstheseasrelicsofaprimitiveformofcapitalism.Buttheymakeperfectsensewhenyouconsiderthetransactioncostsofgoingtothemarket.Wheretrustinestablishedinstitutionsisscarce,itmakessenseforcompaniestostretchtheirbrandsovermanyindustries.Andwherecapitalandlabourmarketsareinefficient,itmakesequalsenseforcompaniestoallocatetheirowncapitalandtraintheirownloyalists.ButMrCoase'snarrowfocusontransactioncostsneverthelessprovidesonlyapartialexplanationofthepoweroffirms.Theriseoftheneo-Coasianschoolofeconomistshasledtoafiercebacklashamongmanagementtheoristswhochampionthe“resource-basedtheory^^ofthefirm.Theyarguethatactivitiesareconductedwithinfirmsnotonlybecausemarketsfail,butalsobecausefirmssucceed:theycanmarshalawiderangeofresources——particularlynebulousonessuchas"corporateculture^^and''collectiveknowledge”—thatmarketscannotaccess.Companiescanorganiseproductionandcreateknowledgeinuniqueways.Theycanalsomakelong-termbetsoninnovationsthatwillredefinemarketsratherthanmerelysatisfydemand.MrCoase'stheoryof“marketfailure"needstobecomplementedbyatheoryof“organisationaladvantages^^.Allthisundoubtedlycomplicates“TheNatureoftheFirm^^.ButitalsovindicatesthetwindecisionsthatMrCoasemadeallthoseyearsagoasayoungstudentattheLondonSchoolofEconomics:tolookinsidetheblackboxratherthansimplyignoringit,andtoexaminebusinesses,notjustfiddlewiththeories.Isittoomuchtohopethatotherpractitionersofthedismalsciencewillfollowhisexampleandstudytherealworld?Passage3:Academicview:VirtuouscirclesDanielCSmith,deanofIndianaUniversity'sKelleySchoolofBusiness,saysthatuniversitiesneedtofindnewwaystocombatrisingtuitioncostsTHEcurrenteconomicsofhighereducation,atleastinAmerica,arenotsustainable.Ashigh-payingmanufacturingjobsdisappear,collegeeducationbecomesanecessity.Yet,formorethanadecade,tuitionfeeshaverisenatmanytimestherateofinflation.What'smore,theforcesdrivingtheseincreaseswillnotabate.America'spublicuniversitiesfacesteepcutsinstatesupport,risinghealthcareandenergycosts.Andwhencashistight,thephilanthropistswhoaresoimportanttouniversitiesdisappear.Thismeansthatnotonlywillthepriceoftuitioncontinuetoincrease,butuniversities5abilitytoofferfinancialaidtostudentsisalsohit.IfthecostofattendinganAmericanuniversitybecomesprohibitiveitwillthreatenthecountry'slong-termglobalcompetitiveness.Itis,therefore,notonlyaproblemforstudentsbutalsoforbusinessesandsociety.Toremaincompetitive,Americaneedsanewmodelofstudentfinancialsupport;highereducationandtheprivatesectorhaveajointresponsibilitytoinnovateincreatingsuchmodels.Enterthebusinessschool.Businessschoolsareperfectlypositionedtodevelopnewwaysofpayingforhighereducation.AttheKelleySchool,weareexploringan''educationcircleofmodeloffinancialsupportforstudents.Itbeginswiththeimmediateneedsofbusinesses-particularlysmall-tomid-sizecompaniesthatarethegrowthenginesoftheeconomy.Inordertogrowandhiremoretalent,thesecompaniesmustexploreopportunitiesbeyondUSborders.Butmanylacktheskillsorglobalcontactstodoso.Mosttopbusinessschools,ontheotherhand,haveaglobalnetworkofalumni,corporatefriendsandgovernmentcontacts.Theyalsohavesuperbstudentsandfaculty.Ourideaistocreateaconsultingconsortiuminwhichteamsofstudentshelpclientcompaniesidentify,assessandcapitaliseonglobalgrowthopportunities.Usingdistance-learningtechnologies,studentteamscollaboratewithinternationalalumni,studentsatpartneruniversitiesandglobalcorporatepartnerstopairmid-sizeAmericanfirmswithglobalopportunities.Sowheredoestuitionsupportcomein?Thefirmspayafeeforthestudentconsultingservices.Aportionofthefeegoestowardsthestudents,tuitioncosts;theremainderispaidintoanendowmentaccountthatprovidesfinancialaidfordeservingstudents.Contractsarealsostructuredsothataportionofnewrevenuegeneratedfromtheglobalventureswill,forasetperiodoftime,addtothescholarshipendowmentaccount.Theeducationcircleoflifecreatesgrowthformid-sizefirms,whichcaninturnspuremployment.Theinitiativeprovidesstudentswithhands-onexperienceandintheprocesscreatesasustainablerevenuestreamfortheschooltooffsetrisingtuitioncosts.Passage4:AfistfulofdustThetrueeffectofwindblownmaterialisonlynowcoiningtobeappreciatedClimatescienceONMAY26th2008Germanyturnedred.Thewindsofchange,though,weremeteorological,notpolitical.Unusualweatherbroughtiron-richdustfromAfricatoEurope,notonlyalteringthecolourofroofsandcarsonthecontinentbutalso,accordingtorecentcalculationsbyMaxBangert,agraduatestudentattheKarlsruheInstituteofTechnology,makingtheplaceaboutaquarterofadegreecolderforaslongastheduststayedintheair.UnusualforGermany;commonplacefortheplanetasawhole.TheSaharaandotherbone-dryplacescontinuallysenddustupintotheatmosphere,whereitmaytravelthousandsofkilometresandinfluenceregionalweather,theglobalclimateandeventhegrowthofforestshalfwayaroundtheplanet.Earlierin2008,forinstance,HanKorenandhiscolleaguesattheWeizmannInstituteofScience,inIsrael,detectedaparticularlyvoluminousburstofdustfromtheBodeleDepression.Thislow-lyingbedofsiltinChad,acrosswhichpowerfuljetsofwindarewonttoblow,constituteslessthan1%oftheSahara'sareabutisreckonedtheworld'sdustiestplace.ItisthoughttoberesponsibleforaquarterormoreoftheSahara'soutputofairbornedust.DrKorenobservedthedustrisewithacameraonasatellitecalledAqua;watcheditobscurethesunusinganautomatedphotometerinIlorin,Nigeria;followeditacrosstheAtlanticwithanothersatellite,CALIPSO;andfinallysawaspikeinlevelsofsilicon,aluminiumandironasitlandedondetectorsinManaus,Brazil.Hisresults,presentedatameetingoftheAmericanGeophysicalUnionheldinSanFranciscoinDecember,providearemarkableaccountoftheintercontinentaltransferofdust.Biowin'inthewindTheimportanceofthislong-distancelogisticalchainhasbecomeapparentonlyinthepastfewyears,andresearchersarestillworkingoutitsmanyrepercussions—forthemoreyoulookatdust,themoreeffectsitseemstohave.Africandustisthought,forexample,tostimulateplantgrowthintheAmazonbybringinginphosphorus(whichisinshortsupplythere).Thismayputacheckonglobalwarmingbyremovingwhatwouldotherwisebealong-termconstraintontheforest5sabilitytosuckupcarbondioxideasitgrows.Dustwhichdoesnotreachlandmaydosomethingsimilartothesea.Somepartsoftheoceanareshortofiron,whichreddesertdusthasinabundance.DustfromtheGobidesertseemstostimulateplanktonbloomsinthenutrient-poorwatersoftheNorthPacific,thoughitisnotclearwhetherthisresultsinanetreductionofatmosphericcarbondioxide,sincethatwouldrequiresomeoftheplanktontosinktotheseabed,nevertoreturn.Dustaloftcoolsthelandbelow,asEurope'smeteorologistsfoundoutinMay2008.Itdoesthisdirectly,byreflectingsunlightbackintospace,andindirectly,byhelpingcloudstoform.Theeffectissignificant.Thecarbondioxidewhichhasbeenaddedtotheatmospheresincetheindustrialrevolutionbeganhasagreenhouseeffectequivalenttothearrivalofabout1.6wattsofextrasolarpowerpersquaremetreoftheEarth'ssurface.Thedirecteffectsofdustareestimatedtoprovideacountervailingcoolingofabout0.14wattspersquaremetre.Addtheindirecteffectoncloudsandthiscouldincreasemarkedly,thoughtherearegreatuncertainties.Thisdust-drivencooling,though,ispatchy-andinsomeplacesitmaynotevenbehelpful.Dustthatcoolsadesertcanchangelocalairflowpatternsandlessentheamountofrainthatfallsinsurroundingareas.Thiscausesplantstodie,andprovidesmoreopportunitiesforwildfires,increasingtheatmosphericcarbon-dioxidelevel.Togetabettersenseoftheneteffectsbroughtaboutbytheupsanddownsofdust,itwouldhelptohaveadetailedhistoricalrecordofthedustinessoftheplanet.AndthisiswhatNatalieMahowaldofCornellUniversityand19colleagueshaveachieved.Theyanalysedcoresfromglaciers,lakebottomsandcoralreefsandmeasuredhowthelevelsofsometelltalechemicalschangedwithdepth,andthuswithtime.Theythenusedmodelsofglobalwindcirculationtodeducewhichdustsourceshavebecomestrongerandwhichweaker.Theirconclusion,publishedrecentlyinAtmosphericChemistryandPhysics,isthatinfitsandstartsoverthepastcenturytheairbecametwiceasdusty.Partoftheincreasestemsfromhumanactivities—directly,inthecaseofconstruction,orindirectly,whenitresultsfromclearingvegetationfrommarginallandinordertofarmit.Anotherpartoftheexplanationmaybeglobalwarmingitself,shiftingtheboundariesofdesertsandintensifyingdustproductioninsomeareas.Howmanytimesmustamanlookup?Theamountofdustactuallyinjectedintotheatmosphere,though,mayhavebeensignificantlyunderestimated.InarecentpaperintheProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences,JasperKokoftheNationalCentreforAtmosphericResearch,inBoulder,Colorado,writesthattheamountofcoarsedustdrivenintotheatmospherebywindisatleastdoubleandmaybeeighttimesasmuchaspreviouslythought.Hearrivedatthisconclusionnotbymeasuringdustdirectlyfromplanesorsatellites,whichseeonlyabitoftheatmosphereatatimeandarenotnecessarilygoodatpickingupallsignsofdust,butbyreasoninghiswaytoamodelofhowloosesoil,somefineandsomecoarse,isaffectedbythewindandliftedintotheair.Fineparticlesofdustdonotsimplyliearounduntiltheyareblownawaybythewind.Rather,theysticktogetherinclumps.Onlywhentheseclumpsarebrokenupisthedustliberated.Thathappenswhenheavierparticlesareliftedbythewindandthenfallbacktotheground,hammeringandshatteringthedust-clumpsastheydoso.DrKokshowsthatthisshattering,liketheshatteringofallsortsofotherthings,producesadistinctivemixofparticlesizes.Thismixdoesnotmatchthosecurrentlyusedinclimatemodels.Ithasmorebiggerparticlesandfewersmallerones.Thediscrepancyseemsnottohavebeennoticedbeforebecauseexistingwaysofmeasuringdustarebiasedtowardsthefinestmaterial—thatwhichmostinfluencesairtemperatureandcloudformation.Theconsequencesofthisreassessmentareunclear,sincetheeffectsofcoarsedustarenotwellunderstood.Also,thelargerparticlesfalloutoftheatmospheremorequickly.Whatisclearisthatitisyetanotherexampleofhowfiendishlycomplicatedtheatmosphereis,andwhatabroadsetofapproachesisrequiredtounderstandit.Passage5:MakingcancerglowawayHowtotrackdowntinytumoursONEproblemwithcancersisdetectingthemwhentheyaresmallandeasytodealwith.Oncetheyhavegrownlargeenoughtobenoticed,theyhaveoftenalsospreadtoothertissues,withlethalconsequences.However,NormanMaitlandoftheYorkshireCancerResearchLaboratory,inHarrogate,England,thinksthathemayhaveasolutiontothisdifficulty.DrMaitlandspeculatedthatifhecouldattachglowingproteinstovirusesprogrammedtofindandinfectcancercells,hecouldmaketumourseasiertosee.Theproteinsinquestioncomefromthecrystaljelly,amarineorganism.TheiroriginalextractionwasrewardedwiththeNobelprizeforchemistryin2008.Tousecrystal-jellyproteinstoilluminatetumours,DrMaitlandandhiscolleaguesdevelopedaseriesofviruses,rangingfromastripped-downversionofHIVtoaninsectvirusreprogrammedtoinfecthumancells,thathavebeenmodifiedtoattachspecificallytoproteinsonthesurfaceofthecancercellsinquestion.Theyhavealsobeenprogrammedtocausetheproductionofcrystal-jellyprotein,bysplicingaprostate-specificcontrolsequenceintotheirgeneticmaterial,nexttoaversionofthefluorescent-proteingene.Onceexposedtotissuesamplescontainingprostate-cancercells,thevirusesinfectedthem.Theinfectiondidnotharmthecells,butasthevirusreplicatedandinfectednewcancercells,theglowingproteinmultipliedtoo.Thiscausedthetumourstogrowbrighterandbrighter.Unfortunately,theyglowedgreen,thecolourofthelightfromnaturalcrystal-jellyprotein.Greenlight'sfrequencyistoohighforittobeabletotravelthroughhumantissues.Fortheglowingproteinstobeseenfromoutsidethebody,theyneededtoproducelightthatcanpassthroughreadily.Redlookedtobetheperfectchoice.Fortunately,theteamthatwontheNobelprizewasabletoprovideDrMaitlandwithaversionoftheproteinthatemitsredlight.Evenwhentheyareinfectedwithvirusesthatmakethemglowred,though,smalltumoursarehardtosee.Tobeabletodetectthem,DrMaitlandwillhavetouseaspeciallydevelopedcamerathatscansthebodyslicebyslice.Suchcamerasareexpensive,andthe￡500,000($750,000)theycostmaybethegreatesthurdletodeployingthetechnique.Thattechniquewillnot,inanycase,bereadyforclinicaltrialsforanotherfiveyears,andthepriceofcamerasmayhavecomedownbythen.Ifitallworks,pickingtumoursupatastagewhentheycanbedealtwithshouldbecomealoteasier.Passage6:TheoldmanofthemountainreturnsMoreevidenceforapreviouslyunknownspeciesofhumanSVANTEPAABO,theDNApalaeontologistwhoseworkprovidedtheinspirationfor“JurassicPark”,hasproducedaniceChristmaspresentforstudentsofhumanevolution.Heandhiscolleagueshaveconfirmed,usingthecreature'swholegenome,thatafossilfingerbonewhichisatleast30,000yearsold,andwhichwasfoundinacaveintheAltaimountainsofSiberia,comesfromapreviouslyunknownhumanspecies.Thatwasallbutcertainfromtheirpreviousstudyofthecreature'smitochondrialDNA(anabundantformofthemoleculefoundincells,powerpacks),releasedinMarch.Thelatestanalysis,publishedinNatureonDecember23rd,removesanydoubt—andaddsatoothtothemeagrestockofevidencefromthenewspeciesthatmodernscienceisabletoexamine.Thisdiscoveryisextraordinaryonmanylevels.PerhapsthemostimportantisthatonesmallgroupofmodemhumanswholivefarawayfromSiberia-theMelanesianislandersofthePacificOcean-havepickedupablockofgenesfromthenewlydiscoveredspeciesontheir(or,rather,theirancestors,)travels.GeneticevidenceoftheMelanesians,journeyfromtheAfricancradleofHomosapiens,whichstarted(likethatofallnon-Africanpeople)about60,000yearsagowhenabandofadventurerscrossedthestraitsofBabelMandeb,frommodemDjiboutitomodernYemen,suggeststheythencontinuedalongthesouthcoastofAsia,nevergoingfarinland.Forthenecessaryinterbreedingtohavehappened,DrPaabo'snewspecieswouldthushavetohavebeenspreadoveravastareaofAsia.Yetithasleftnopreviouslyidentifiedtraces.Tobefair,Asiahasnot,sofar,beenarichsourceofhumanfossils—unlikeAfrica,wheremanysitesintheeastandthesouthhaveyieldedancestralhumans,andEurope,whereNeanderthalshavebeenfoundbythehundred.GoodAsianfossilscomeonlyfromChina(PekingMan,atypeofHomoerectus)andIndonesia(JavaMan,anothererectus,andHomofloresiensis,themuch-maligned“hobbit“oftheislandofFlores).Stonetoolsabound,buthumanbonesfromotherAsiansitesarealmostasrareashens'teeth.Thefewthatdoexistarenow,ofcourse,thesubjectofintensescrutinyandmuchdebateaboutwhetherthey,too,belongtothenewspecies.Whatthisdiscoveryoughttoprovide,then,istheimpetustostartlookingmuchharderforhumanfossilsinAsia.Thenewspecies,whichhasyettobenamed,clearlylivedallovertheplace.If,despitethat,itremainedhiddenuntilnow,whoknowswhatotherspeciesofhumanmightalsobeoutthere?THISmonthhasseenqualifiedgoodnewsforpolarbears.OnDecember16thresearchersfromtheUnitedStatesandCanadapredictedthateventhoughtheextentofthesummericeintheArcticOceanisexpectedtodeclineprecipitouslyoverthenextfewdecades,arefugeofsortswillremainforthem.Meanwhile,inapaperinNature,agroupAmericanclimatologistsarguedthatasuddenandirreversibledeclineoftheseaicemay,afterall,notbethemostlikelyoutcomeofglobalwarming.TherefugewillbealongthenorthernshoresofCanadaandGreenland,StephaniePfirman,ofBarnardCollegeinNewYork,andhercolleaguestoldtheautumnmeetingoftheAmericanGeophysicalUnioninSanFrancisco.Eveninsummer,icewillpersisttherebecauseincreasedmeltingwillbecompensatedforbythearrivaloficefromthecentreoftheArcticOcean,andevenfromasfarawayasEuropeandAsia.Then,asnow,prevailingwindsandresultantoceancurrentscarryicetoNorthAmerica.ThatiswhytheiceontheEurasiansideistypicallyyoungandaboutonemetrethick,whereasthatnearCanadacanbeeightmetresthickandasmanyyearsold.DrPfirmanarrivedatthisconclusionafterrunningacomputermodelcalledtheCommunityClimateSystemModelversion3,orCCSM3,whichwasdevelopedbytheUniversityCorporationforAtmosphericResearchinBoulder,Colorado.Accordingtothismodel,theArcticOceanwillbemoreorlessice-freeby2050ifnospecialeffortismadetore