銀行業(yè)1季景氣度分化資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量保持穩(wěn)健

利潤：營收與盈利增速略有回落，個(gè)體表現(xiàn)分化利潤析與：凈利收入，中收速放緩截至4月29日，所有上市行2022年1季報(bào)披露完畢從盈利表現(xiàn)來看，隨著前期多提減值造成的利潤低基數(shù)效應(yīng)消退，上市銀行1季度盈利增速較021年有所回落，但整體仍維持在景氣平。1季度上市銀行共實(shí)現(xiàn)歸母凈利潤同比增長8.7%（2.6%，021），其中，營（扣除其他業(yè)務(wù)成本）實(shí)現(xiàn)同比增長4.4%（s78%，021），速較2021年下降3.4個(gè)百點(diǎn)另一方面，1季度行業(yè)整體資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量壓力有限，信用減值損失同比減少0.8%，存量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)出后信成本的節(jié)約仍然是1季度利增維持在較高水平的重要驅(qū)動(dòng)因素。個(gè)體表現(xiàn)來看，行業(yè)營收和盈利增長的分化有所加劇，大行業(yè)績增長保持穩(wěn)健，其中郵儲(chǔ)銀行1季度盈利增速繼續(xù)保持在17.%的較高水平。股份行1季度營收增長相對乏力，拖累整體業(yè)績表現(xiàn)，但平安、興業(yè)利潤增速仍然在15%以上。中小行業(yè)績續(xù)高增，部分優(yōu)質(zhì)的城農(nóng)商行營收和利潤增速高位環(huán)比繼續(xù)提升，其中業(yè)績增速靠前的為杭州銀行（314%）、滬農(nóng)商行（290%）、成都銀行（28.8%）?！耙粤垦a(bǔ)價(jià)”支撐凈利息收入增長，中收增速明顯回落。收入的分解來看，上市銀行222年1季度利息凈收入和手續(xù)費(fèi)凈收入分別實(shí)現(xiàn)同比增長5.2%/.%（s4.7%8.2%，021A）。具體來看，凈利息收入方面，以量補(bǔ)價(jià)邏輯延續(xù)，1季度政策引導(dǎo)下行業(yè)信貸投放加速支撐利息凈收入增速環(huán)比提升，值得注意的是，大行受益于基建項(xiàng)目儲(chǔ)備充足，1季度實(shí)現(xiàn)良好的開門紅，凈利息收入表現(xiàn)突出；上市銀行1季度實(shí)現(xiàn)手續(xù)費(fèi)及傭金凈收入同比增長3.5%，增速較01年下降4.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，預(yù)計(jì)是受資本市場波動(dòng)影響，財(cái)富管理相關(guān)業(yè)務(wù)表現(xiàn)不佳。費(fèi)用端方面，1季度行業(yè)營支出力度趨緩，1季度實(shí)現(xiàn)業(yè)務(wù)管理費(fèi)同比增長7.2%（s3.5%，2021A），預(yù)計(jì)是受疫情管控影響，部分業(yè)務(wù)開展受限。從撥備計(jì)提來看，1季度計(jì)提的資產(chǎn)減值損失準(zhǔn)備規(guī)模同比下降0.8，撥備計(jì)提力度回歸常態(tài)化。表1：上市銀行222年1季與201年盈利同比增速變動(dòng)凈利息收入 中收 營收 業(yè)務(wù)及管理費(fèi) 資產(chǎn)減值 歸母凈利潤202122120212212021221202122120212212021221工商銀行6.8%6.4%1.4%1.2%7.8%5.2%14.8%5.3%0.0%12.4%10.3%5.7%建設(shè)銀行5.1%8.4%6.0%0.0%7.2%2.5%17.0%3.9%-1.2%-0.9%1.6%6.8%中國銀行2.2%5.5%7.8%-6.8%6.9%1.6%12.9%7.3%-12.4%-8.2%12.3%7.0%農(nóng)業(yè)銀行6.0%7.7%7.8%4.3%9.3%5.1%14.0%2.6%0.7%5.3%1.7%7.4%交通銀行5.5%10.3%5.5%8.8%10.3%3.6%12.9%7.7%9.8%2.2%1.9%6.3%郵儲(chǔ)銀行6.3%4.1%33.4%39.6%1.4%10.1%13.6%9.8%-7.5%-5.9%18.6%17.8%10.2%10.0%18.8%5.5%13.9%8.3%13.4%6.8%2.0%4.8%23.2%12.5%中信銀行-1.7%-1.2%24.4%4.1%5.0%4.1%15.1%8.2%-7.2%-6.8%13.6%10.9%民生銀行-7.0%-18.7%-0.4%-21.2%-8.9%-15.5%1.6%1.7%-16.7%-33.4%0.2%-6.9%興業(yè)銀行1.5%2.4%13.2%18.8%8.7%6.9%14.9%35.3%-1.2%-28.1%24.1%15.6%浦發(fā)銀行-1.9%2.5%-14.2%2.5%-2.9%0.8%7.0%4.5%-1.5%-3.5%-9.1%3.7%1.3%0.1%1.9%-2.0%7.1%0.1%13.7%0.4%-3.8%0.3%14.7%2.0%華夏銀行-2.9%-7.5%-12.4%27.7%0.6%1.6%4.7%16.7%-12.5%-10.3%10.6%5.1%平安銀行6.1%7.3%1.5%4.8%10.3%10.6%7.3%3.0%4.8%3.7%25.6%26.8%浙商銀行13.1%14.2%-4.7%33.1%14.2%18.3%1.3%1.8%23.1%44.6%2.8%1.8%北京銀行-0.4%0.7%-6.3%36.2%3.0%2.0%16.6%26.1%-5.1%-15.0%3.5%6.6%南京銀行14.4%-0.9%16.8%1.2%18.9%20.5%21.9%14.0%7.7%29.7%21.0%22.3%寧波銀行17.4%12.6%30.3%0.9%28.4%15.4%24.9%10.0%42.8%22.2%29.9%20.8%上海銀行1.1%9.1%61.3%3.5%10.8%2.9%25.9%7.7%9.3%2.8%5.5%5.4%江蘇銀行23.0%13.6%39.8%9.8%22.6%1.0%17.2%3.1%-0.5%-10.0%30.7%26.0%貴陽銀行-5.3%0.9%-23.6%-15.3%-6.7%2.5%7.5%0.1%-26.6%14.9%2.1%1.2%杭州銀行9.2%1.4%19.7%20.1%18.4%15.7%22.7%20.9%5.4%5.5%29.8%31.4%成都銀行21.9%19.4%45.5%29.0%22.5%17.6%17.0%27.5%16.5%-9.9%30.0%28.8%鄭州銀行6.3%12.5%-28.2%-32.0%1.3%7.1%3.9%-22.2%1.1%29.3%1.9%3.7%青島銀行-6.1%-4.7%15.6%1.3%5.7%-5.7%6.6%12.2%-3.5%-30.0%22.1%21.7%西安銀行-3.5%-9.8%-5.9%-41.3%0.9%-18.6%3.8%-1.8%0.7%-24.0%1.7%-14.2%長沙銀行7.7%8.7%33.4%18.9%15.8%12.0%10.9%8.2%17.3%14.3%18.1%13.1%蘇州銀行0.1%-1.0%29.4%22.1%4.4%5.2%12.5%14.5%-13.5%-17.8%20.8%20.6%廈門銀行-3.9%10.5%14.8%21.6%-4.3%18.2%15.5%24.8%-48.8%0.7%19.0%16.5%重慶銀行4.8%-6.6%-25.9%25.5%1.1%-12.9%15.5%9.2%15.2%-41.7%5.4%0.6%齊魯銀行16.7%14.3%50.4%37.0%28.1%18.0%16.8%15.8%49.0%19.2%20.5%20.1%滬農(nóng)商行8.4%9.1%-7.1%16.6%9.7%9.0%13.8%5.8%-19.8%-44.5%18.8%29.0%江陰銀行10.6%22.1%37.8%1.2%0.5%22.3%6.6%3.4%-25.1%16.3%20.5%20.6%無錫銀行6.9%5.4%3.9%-29.7%1.6%9.1%18.3%0.7%-1.9%6.2%20.5%22.5%常熟銀行12.2%24.0%61.0%-99.3%16.3%19.3%12.6%12.5%16.2%30.0%21.3%23.4%蘇農(nóng)銀行1.1%5.6%68.0%-19.3%2.2%6.3%2.7%0.5%-9.9%0.9%22.0%21.4%張家港行2.5%5.7%由負(fù)正359.%10.1%1.8%9.5%3.5%-4.9%28.9%30.3%29.7%紫金銀行3.1%-2.0%-1.8%22.1%0.6%3.4%18.8%6.9%-30.2%-15.4%5.1%10.5%青農(nóng)商行-0.5%-6.2%62.7%1.4%7.6%-6.3%9.2%-6.1%5.6%-12.3%3.6%3.1%渝農(nóng)商行8.2%-0.8%-6.2%-27.5%9.3%1.2%1.2%5.6%6.3%-24.4%13.8%1.4%瑞豐銀行0.5%1.5%-20.0%-48.8%10.1%12.6%8.0%3.4%6.2%25.4%15.1%18.8%LL4.7%5.2%8.2%3.5%7.8%4.4%13.5%7.2%-3.7%-0.8%12.6%8.7%六大行5.4%7.0%6.2%2.2%8.3%4.3%14.4%5.9%-4.1%3.1%1.8%7.3%股份行1.6%0.7%9.7%4.8%5.3%3.5%10.4%9.1%-5.0%-7.1%13.7%9.4%城商行9.2%6.1%21.8%12.4%13.4%8.5%18.0%1.5%4.4%-0.4%16.3%15.1%農(nóng)商行6.5%4.5%3.9%-6.6%8.8%5.9%1.6%4.7%-3.3%-1.7%15.7%17.9%注：標(biāo)紅表示2Q1表現(xiàn)好于2A，業(yè)績歸分析規(guī)模和備是增長的要支撐我們對上市銀行202年1報(bào)凈利潤增速進(jìn)行歸因分析，從凈利潤增速驅(qū)動(dòng)各要素分解來看：規(guī)模和撥備是驅(qū)動(dòng)上市銀行利潤高位增長的主要貢獻(xiàn)因素。1季度上市銀行撥備計(jì)提貢獻(xiàn)凈利潤增長6.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，反在1季度行業(yè)整體資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量定下，撥備對利潤的反哺仍在續(xù)；1季度上市銀行規(guī)模對利正貢獻(xiàn)5.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，映1季度穩(wěn)信貸政策發(fā)力的效。息差收窄仍是最主要的負(fù)面因素。1季度上市銀行息差對利負(fù)貢獻(xiàn)4.6個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，仍然受到資產(chǎn)端定價(jià)下行的拖累。中收對凈利潤的正貢獻(xiàn)程度下降。1季度中收對上市銀行的盈利正貢獻(xiàn)為11個(gè)百分點(diǎn)（s2.2ct，221A）。其他非息收入表現(xiàn)分化。1度其他非息收入對上市銀行的盈利負(fù)貢獻(xiàn)0.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，和資本市場波動(dòng)下個(gè)體表現(xiàn)分化加劇，部分區(qū)域性銀行1季度依然實(shí)現(xiàn)了較好的投資收益現(xiàn)。銀行規(guī)模擴(kuò)張 利差變化 中間業(yè)務(wù)其他收入 營業(yè)稅 成本收 撥備計(jì)提 有效稅其他凈利潤整體而言，1季度在規(guī)模擴(kuò)張加速、資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量保持穩(wěn)健的共同驅(qū)動(dòng)下，上市銀行利潤增長繼續(xù)保持在高景氣水平。展望2季，考慮到3月末以來華東區(qū)疫情管控升級，可能給當(dāng)?shù)氐你y行經(jīng)營帶來擾動(dòng)，如在零售業(yè)務(wù)信貸需求和中小微企業(yè)的資產(chǎn)質(zhì)銀行規(guī)模擴(kuò)張 利差變化 中間業(yè)務(wù)其他收入 營業(yè)稅 成本收 撥備計(jì)提 有效稅其他凈利潤表2：上市銀行222年1季利潤貢獻(xiàn)分解變化變化入比變化變化率變化YoYYoY工商銀行5.5% -2.6%0.4%0.0%1.7%0.0%-2.3%3.2%0.0%5.7%建設(shè)銀行4.9% 0.1%0.0%-5.8%1.0%-0.6%5.0%2.1%0.0%6.8%中國銀行4.0% -0.8%-2.1%-1.7%0.7%-3.1%6.9%3.0%0.0%7.0%農(nóng)業(yè)銀行5.9% -1.2%1.2%-3.1%0.7%1.3%2.0%0.6%0.0%7.4%交通銀行8.8% -4.2%3.1%-8.5%1.3%-3.0%5.0%3.9%0.0%6.3%郵儲(chǔ)銀行8.9% -9.3%5.1%5.1%0.4%0.5%8.7%-1.5%0.0%17.8%4.1% 0.3%2.7%1.0%-0.5%0.9%2.1%1.9%0.0%12.5%中信銀行3.4% -1.6%1.6%9.1%0.1%-2.8%13.9%-2.8%0.0%10.9%民生銀行1.3% -31.7%-6.7%5.7%-1.1%-9.5%32.4%2.6%0.0%-6.9%興業(yè)銀行4.7% -8.1%6.1%2.4%0.7%-1.3%22.2%-1.0%0.0%15.6%浦發(fā)銀行3.2% -3.7%0.7%-2.2%-0.3%-1.9%5.8%2.0%0.0%3.7%4.7% -16.4%-0.8%0.9%-0.4%-0.2%1.5%2.8%0.0%2.0%華夏銀行5.8% -37.8%6.8%13.9%-0.4%-12.6%31.0%-1.6%0.0%5.1%平安銀行4.8% -9.0%2.3%10.3%-0.8%6.9%1.2%1.1%0.0%26.8%浙商銀行10.9% -6.0%4.4%7.9%-0.4%3.7%-15.9%7.0%0.0%1.8%北京銀行4.5% -5.9%8.0%-5.3%1.1%-9.6%13.3%0.5%0.0%6.6%南京銀行7.8% -17.0%3.0%29.3%-0.4%3.3%-6.8%3.1%0.0%22.3%寧波銀行10.6% -18.2%0.2%12.3%-0.5%4.8%5.8%5.8%0.0%20.8%上海銀行2.6% 1.7%0.9%-7.0%0.4%-1.9%4.7%3.9%0.0%5.4%江蘇銀行4.8% 5.1%2.1%0.2%0.1%4.2%16.3%-6.8%0.0%26.0%貴陽銀行6.2% -7.1%-1.6%4.2%1.0%1.2%-5.2%2.5%0.0%1.2%杭州銀行6.8% -22.5%6.3%22.3%-0.9%-2.7%12.4%9.6%0.0%31.4%成都銀行10.4% 3.3%1.8%2.4%0.0%-4.6%19.4%-3.8%0.0%28.8%鄭州銀行5.7% 1.2%-6.2%-0.3%-1.5%14.4%-19.6%-0.1%0.0%3.7%青島銀行1.3% -36.8%0.5%-7.8%1.1%-18.3%83.9%-2.1%0.0%21.7%西安銀行5.6% -27.3%-5.4%-13.0%-0.6%-3.2%25.0%4.6%0.0%-14.2%長沙銀行8.0% -4.6%1.5%7.1%-2.1%2.8%-1.2%1.6%0.0%13.1%廈門銀行15.2% -9.8%2.4%9.8%-3.1%-4.3%6.5%-0.3%0.0%16.5%齊魯銀行8.5% -3.6%8.5%4.5%-0.8%1.6%-0.8%2.1%0.0%20.1%重慶銀行6.2% -20.7%2.0%-14.8%0.2%-8.2%30.8%5.1%0.0%0.6%蘇州銀行6.2% -20.3%6.8%4.8%2.7%-6.8%27.5%-0.5%0.0%20.6%江陰銀行3.2% 31.2%0.1%14.0%-2.3%27.6%-13.7%-39.6%0.0%20.6%無錫銀行5.1%-5.4%-5.3%15.1%0.5%6.0%2.5%4.1%0.0%22.5%常熟銀行14.5%8.6%-7.5%6.4%-0.1%7.6%-6.5%0.3%0.0%23.4%蘇農(nóng)銀行12.3%-18.8%-1.7%5.2%-0.9%6.2%15.3%3.8%0.0%21.4%張家港行14.7%-22.3%5.1%9.3%27.8%7.9%-1.0%-1.7%0.0%29.7%瑞豐銀行9.8%-14.6%5.7%16.6%0.7%9.0%-17.7%9.4%0.0%18.8%紫金銀行0.7%-4.1%0.8%9.3%4.5%-3.0%12.9%-10.5%0.0%10.5%渝農(nóng)商行8.6%-13.2%-3.0%5.7%0.1%-2.2%12.3%3.1%0.0%1.4%青農(nóng)商行2.4%-16.2%0.2%-3.5%1.3%-0.1%16.4%2.7%0.0%3.1%紫金銀行0.7%-4.1%0.8%9.3%4.5%-3.0%12.9%-10.5%0.0%10.5%LL5.4%-4.6%1.1%-0.1%0.6%-1.5%6.1%1.8%0.0%8.7%六大行5.5%-1.7%0.7%-2.3%1.1%-0.8%2.9%2.2%0.0%7.3%股份行4.2%-10.0%1.8%3.7%-0.3%-3.3%12.4%0.9%0.0%9.4%城商行6.5%-8.0%2.7%4.6%0.0%-1.6%9.4%1.5%0.0%15.1%農(nóng)商行8.0%-7.6%-0.8%4.4%1.0%0.8%12.1%0.0%0.0%17.9%注：剔除上市一年以內(nèi)的上市銀行，圖1：上市銀行222年1季凈利潤貢獻(xiàn)分解與201年報(bào)對比1 Q1.%.%.%.%.%規(guī)模擴(kuò)張利差變化中間業(yè)務(wù)其他收變化變化成本收入比變撥備計(jì)變化規(guī)模擴(kuò)張利差變化中間業(yè)務(wù)其他收變化變化成本收入比變撥備計(jì)變化有效率變凈利潤YY注：剔除上市一年以內(nèi)的銀行，二、上市銀行經(jīng)營跟蹤量：信景氣分化，行和區(qū)域銀保持增勢從規(guī)模指標(biāo)來看，22年1季度上市銀行規(guī)模增速較21年4度進(jìn)一步有所提升，221生息資產(chǎn)余額實(shí)現(xiàn)同比增長8.8%（s8.2%，214），其中貸款總額實(shí)現(xiàn)同比增長11.0%（s11.%，214），高增長延續(xù)。但信貸投放的個(gè)體表現(xiàn)有所分化，呈現(xiàn)“兩頭好、中間弱”的格局，大行受益于基建項(xiàng)目儲(chǔ)備充足，1季度實(shí)現(xiàn)良好的開門紅，貸款增速繼續(xù)保持在11.7%的較高水平（s11.%，201A）；股份行受制于宏觀環(huán)境信貸需求走弱，整體貸款投放節(jié)奏放緩，貸款增速僅為7.9%；城農(nóng)商行尤其深耕江浙、成都區(qū)域的中小行貸款增長保持良好。負(fù)債端方面，1季度上市銀行計(jì)息負(fù)債余額實(shí)現(xiàn)同比增長8.%，增速較214有所提升（.9%，214），其中實(shí)現(xiàn)存款規(guī)模同比增長8.8%（s7.5%，24），存款的壓力邊際趨緩，我們預(yù)計(jì)一定程度上和1季度信貸務(wù)保持景氣帶來的存款派生增加有關(guān)。表3：上市銀行資產(chǎn)負(fù)債規(guī)模同比增速一覽生息資產(chǎn)同比增速21A 221貸款同比增速21A 221計(jì)息負(fù)債同比增速21A 221存款同比增速21A 221工商銀行5.8%8.4%1.0%10.9%5.1%8.3%5.2%7.8%建設(shè)銀行7.5%8.8%12.1%1.7%8.0%9.4%8.6%7.9%中國銀行10.1%6.2%10.5%10.2%10.5%6.2%7.3%7.1%農(nóng)業(yè)銀行7.1%8.5%13.2%13.0%7.1%8.3%7.4%7.6%交通銀行9.2%10.4%12.2%12.4%6.7%7.6%6.4%8.3%郵儲(chǔ)銀行10.8%1.1%12.9%13.7%10.4%10.9%9.6%10.2%10.6%8.8%10.8%8.4%9.8%7.5%12.8%14.6%中信銀行7.5%5.6%8.6%6.6%6.8%5.0%4.6%5.9%民生銀行0.2%1.7%5.0%4.4%-0.1%1.6%1.3%6.3%興業(yè)銀行9.7%10.3%1.7%10.9%8.6%10.4%6.6%8.2%浦發(fā)銀行2.9%4.9%5.6%3.4%2.3%4.2%8.0%8.1%10.6%12.3%9.9%9.3%10.8%12.9%5.3%7.2%華夏銀行8.2%10.3%5.0%6.3%8.3%10.8%4.7%12.3%平安銀行10.4%12.4%14.9%13.5%10.3%1.9%10.8%14.9%浙商銀行12.8%20.5%12.5%14.6%1.3%21.8%6.0%19.0%北京銀行5.1%3.0%6.7%7.3%2.9%1.1%3.8%9.0%南京銀行15.7%16.2%17.2%17.7%16.4%16.8%13.3%15.6%寧波銀行25.7%30.8%25.4%26.3%25.8%32.1%13.8%25.2%上海銀行8.3%8.3%1.4%9.5%8.7%8.8%1.8%9.4%江蘇銀行1.9%10.1%16.5%15.4%12.0%10.2%1.1%13.0%貴陽銀行3.0%4.3%10.4%9.4%1.6%2.9%1.3%2.4%杭州銀行19.4%18.7%21.7%21.4%20.3%19.5%16.1%18.2%成都銀行17.6%17.4%37.2%33.4%18.0%17.8%22.1%22.4%鄭州銀行4.0%3.3%21.5%20.9%2.9%1.7%1.5%3.2%青島銀行13.9%12.7%18.1%14.1%14.5%12.9%15.2%12.4%西安銀行12.6%9.6%5.7%5.2%13.4%10.2%10.5%5.0%長沙銀行12.9%12.5%17.3%16.5%12.2%12.8%10.9%13.5%廈門銀行16.3%20.1%24.5%20.8%17.0%21.0%19.2%26.7%重慶銀行10.4%9.9%12.4%10.4%10.1%10.3%7.6%9.8%蘇州銀行16.5%14.4%13.4%15.5%17.6%14.8%1.3%13.8%齊魯銀行20.3%18.2%26.1%23.5%20.4%19.3%19.7%15.4%滬農(nóng)商行9.8%9.8%15.6%12.1%8.6%8.4%12.0%1.0%江陰銀行6.9%9.4%14.0%14.6%7.0%9.6%1.0%7.4%無錫銀行12.2%8.9%18.2%13.0%12.7%8.7%10.9%12.0%常熟銀行18.2%17.9%23.6%24.1%18.5%18.3%15.1%15.4%蘇農(nóng)銀行14.3%15.2%21.3%21.8%14.6%13.8%14.8%9.8%張家港行13.9%17.5%17.6%21.3%1.9%15.5%13.0%10.8%紫金銀行-5.3%-0.2%16.0%17.7%-6.0%-0.7%5.4%7.7%青農(nóng)商行5.7%4.5%6.8%2.2%4.9%4.4%7.2%8.1%渝農(nóng)商行1.5%10.0%14.6%12.9%1.5%9.9%4.7%6.2%瑞豐銀行5.5%7.7%1.0%1.5%3.9%6.4%10.6%13.5%All8.2%8.8%1.4%1.0%7.9%8.6%7.5%8.8%六大行7.9%8.5%1.8%1.7%7.7%8.3%7.2%7.9%股份行7.5%8.3%9.0%7.9%6.9%8.0%7.1%9.9%城商行12.5%12.3%15.7%15.1%12.2%12.2%10.9%13.5%農(nóng)商行9.6%9.5%15.1%13.2%9.1%8.9%9.3%9.4%注：標(biāo)紅表示2Q1同比增速快于221A；，壓縮投資類資產(chǎn)，同業(yè)資產(chǎn)配置力度加大。從上市銀行的資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)來看，1季度相較上年末現(xiàn)金及存放中央銀行款項(xiàng)、貸款占生息資產(chǎn)的比重基本保持穩(wěn)定，投資類資產(chǎn)占比較上年末下降0.5ct，同業(yè)投放力度有所大，同業(yè)資產(chǎn)占生息資產(chǎn)比重較上年末提升0.5ct。表4：上市銀行生息資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)生息資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)122生息資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)122較421變動(dòng)現(xiàn)金及存放央行同業(yè)貸款投資現(xiàn)金及存放央行同業(yè)貸款投資工商銀行9.7%5.5%58.3%26.5%0.6%pt1.1%pt-0.9%t-0.8%t建設(shè)銀行9.4%3.7%61.4%25.5%0.1%pt0.6%pt-0.3%t-0.4%t中國銀行9.0%6.3%61.3%23.4%0.1%pt-0.9%t1.4%pt-0.7%t農(nóng)業(yè)銀行8.2%6.1%57.6%28.1%0.1%pt0.8%pt-0.1%t-0.8%t交通銀行6.7%6.6%56.7%30.0%0.2%pt1.0%pt-0.1%t-1.2%t郵儲(chǔ)銀行9.6%5.4%50.2%34.8%0.0%pt0.3%pt0.0%pt-0.2%t6.8%6.5%60.7%26.1%0.4%pt-2.5%t0.6%pt1.5%pt中信銀行5.6%4.4%60.6%29.4%0.1%pt0.1%pt0.1%pt-0.2%t民生銀行5.2%4.3%60.2%30.3%-0.3%t0.5%pt0.2%pt-0.4%t興業(yè)銀行4.7%7.2%53.0%35.0%-0.6%t0.5%pt1.2%pt-1.1%t浦發(fā)銀行4.6%8.5%58.7%28.2%-0.7%t3.0%pt-1.0%t-1.3%t5.7%5.9%56.4%32.1%-1.0%t2.0%pt-0.7%t-0.3%t華夏銀行5.6%3.2%59.6%31.6%0.4%pt-0.1%t0.0%pt-0.3%t平安銀行7.1%4.6%61.9%26.3%0.6%pt0.9%pt-0.8%t-0.7%t浙商銀行6.0%5.8%58.8%29.4%-0.5%t2.4%pt-1.4%t-0.5%t北京銀行5.5%5.9%55.7%32.9%0.1%pt-1.1%t1.2%pt-0.2%t南京銀行6.4%3.5%45.9%44.2%0.6%pt0.3%pt1.3%pt-2.2%t寧波銀行8.3%2.6%41.8%47.3%3.3%pt0.1%pt-1.0%t-2.4%t上海銀行5.9%8.8%45.3%40.0%0.2%pt0.5%pt-0.5%t-0.1%t江蘇銀行5.4%4.4%53.5%36.7%0.1%pt-0.1%t-0.4%t0.3%pt貴陽銀行5.6%2.5%43.0%48.9%-0.4%t0.9%pt0.0%pt-0.4%t杭州銀行6.3%5.5%42.1%46.0%0.1%pt0.7%pt1.1%pt-1.8%t成都銀行7.3%10.3%48.8%33.6%-0.3%t2.2%pt-0.6%t-1.3%t鄭州銀行4.8%3.0%56.0%36.3%-1.5%t-1.0%t3.2%pt-0.7%t青島銀行8.1%1.9%49.6%40.4%-2.5%t-2.0%t2.0%pt2.5%pt西安銀行5.6%4.2%53.5%36.7%-1.9%t1.2%pt1.6%pt-0.9%t長沙銀行6.2%3.2%45.9%44.7%-0.7%t1.1%pt0.5%pt-0.9%t蘇州銀行4.4%7.8%47.4%40.4%-0.3%t1.0%pt-1.0%t0.3%pt廈門銀行10.2%7.4%52.1%30.4%0.1%pt-1.2%t-0.3%t1.5%pt重慶銀行6.3%10.7%50.3%32.7%0.2%pt3.3%pt-0.1%t-3.4%t齊魯銀行6.8%1.4%50.7%41.1%-1.8%t-0.1%t1.3%pt0.6%pt滬農(nóng)商行6.4%9.0%53.4%31.2%0.1%pt-2.6%t0.3%pt2.2%pt江陰銀行5.6%1.5%60.1%32.8%-0.2%t0.1%pt1.3%pt-1.3%t無錫銀行5.8%3.7%57.5%33.0%-0.2%t1.1%pt0.3%pt-1.2%t常熟銀行6.1%3.2%63.3%27.4%-1.0%t0.3%pt-1.7%t2.4%pt蘇農(nóng)銀行6.4%3.3%59.5%30.9%-0.5%t-1.5%t-0.1%t2.1%pt張家港行5.5%1.1%60.2%33.3%-0.2%t-0.3%t0.3%pt0.2%pt渝農(nóng)商行5.2%7.8%45.0%42.0%0.2%pt-0.9%t0.4%pt0.3%pt紫金銀行5.2%8.8%65.0%21.1%-0.5%t4.1%pt-2.1%t-1.4%t青農(nóng)商行5.3%7.0%52.8%34.9%-0.1%t2.1%pt-0.2%t-1.9%t瑞豐銀行6.6%4.7%61.6%27.1%-0.3%t-1.4%t0.2%pt1.6%ptll7.9%5.6%57.6%29.0%0.1pt0.5pt0.0pt-0.5pt六大行9.0%5.5%58.5%27.1%0.2%pt0.5%pt-0.1%t-0.6%t股份行5.6%5.9%58.7%29.8%-0.2%t0.5%pt0.0%pt-0.3%t城商行6.3%5.4%48.6%39.7%0.2%pt0.2%pt0.3%pt-0.7%t農(nóng)商行5.7%6.8%53.2%34.2%-0.1%t-0.6%t0.2%pt0.5%pt，價(jià)：資端有下行力，環(huán)比回落結(jié)合1季報(bào)數(shù)據(jù)，我們以期初期末口徑測算上市銀行1季度凈息差水平為19%（s2.%，2021A），環(huán)比收窄bp，從資負(fù)兩端來看，行業(yè)息差的收窄仍然是受到資產(chǎn)端收益率下行的拖累，我們測算1季度上市銀行生息資產(chǎn)收益率為3.68%，比下降8bp。負(fù)債端成本延改善，我們測算1季度上市銀行計(jì)負(fù)債成本率為1.8%，環(huán)比降2bp，我們認(rèn)為1季度流性保持充裕、存款定價(jià)上限的改革均有正貢獻(xiàn)。目前銀行貸款定價(jià)仍處在下行的趨勢中，根據(jù)4月15日國辦一季度銀行業(yè)保險(xiǎn)業(yè)運(yùn)行發(fā)展情況發(fā)布會(huì)披露，221新發(fā)放企業(yè)類貸款年化利率較年初下降0.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，新發(fā)放普惠型小微企貸款利率較年初下降0.25個(gè)分點(diǎn)。展望后續(xù)，經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力加大和降低實(shí)體融資成本的政策求仍然存在，我們預(yù)計(jì)銀行資產(chǎn)端貸款的定價(jià)仍有一定的下行壓力，但考慮到監(jiān)管對于銀行高息攬儲(chǔ)行為的規(guī)范仍在持續(xù)，疊加年初以來資本市場的波動(dòng)使得銀行攬存的量價(jià)局面得到改善，我們預(yù)計(jì)銀行負(fù)債端成本仍有進(jìn)一步優(yōu)化的空間，從而支撐銀行全年的凈息差表現(xiàn)保持一定的韌性。表5：上市銀行整體息差較221年有所回落生息資產(chǎn)收益率計(jì)息負(fù)債成本率凈息差2021A202212021A202212021A20221工商銀行3.52%3.49%1.58%1.62%2.09%2.03%建設(shè)銀行3.72%3.68%1.76%1.74%2.13%2.1%中國銀行3.23%3.18%1.62%1.61%1.74%1.69%農(nóng)業(yè)銀行3.66%3.64%1.70%1.73%2.10%2.06%交通銀行3.49%3.43%2.35%2.35%1.49%1.46%郵儲(chǔ)銀行3.83%3.66%1.64%1.60%2.28%2.15%3.87%3.84%1.60%1.56%2.41%2.42%中信銀行4.04%3.87%2.24%2.16%1.95%1.86%民生銀行4.20%3.89%2.47%2.42%1.90%1.64%興業(yè)銀行3.96%3.87%2.28%2.23%1.83%1.80%浦發(fā)銀行3.88%3.77%2.28%2.20%1.75%1.73%4.24%4.02%2.31%2.24%2.08%1.91%華夏銀行4.38%4.14%2.29%2.29%2.28%2.04%平安銀行4.71%4.64%2.23%2.19%2.65%2.63%浙商銀行4.51%4.31%2.59%2.40%2.04%2.02%北京銀行3.92%3.74%2.36%2.23%1.76%1.72%南京銀行4.02%3.76%2.50%2.36%1.70%1.55%寧波銀行3.88%3.74%2.20%2.05%1.87%1.86%上海銀行3.74%3.61%2.27%2.20%1.63%1.55%江蘇銀行4.39%4.29%2.63%2.51%1.90%1.92%貴陽銀行5.14%4.88%2.92%2.77%2.31%2.21%杭州銀行3.89%3.78%2.36%2.35%1.68%1.56%成都銀行4.16%4.01%2.25%2.21%2.06%1.94%鄭州銀行4.87%4.76%2.70%2.56%2.28%2.31%青島銀行3.87%3.78%2.33%2.34%1.62%1.53%西安銀行4.33%4.08%2.67%2.60%1.86%1.67%長沙銀行4.39%4.24%2.38%2.32%2.17%2.07%廈門銀行3.78%3.68%2.51%2.51%1.47%1.36%重慶銀行4.73%4.37%2.93%2.84%2.00%1.73%蘇州銀行4.40%4.14%2.52%2.44%1.93%1.74%齊魯銀行4.07%3.87%2.31%2.22%1.92%1.80%滬農(nóng)商行3.87%3.77%2.15%2.1%1.83%1.77%江陰銀行4.01%4.08%2.21%2.14%1.96%2.09%無錫銀行4.16%3.98%2.44%2.35%1.88%1.77%常熟銀行5.17%5.08%2.34%2.31%3.01%2.94%蘇農(nóng)銀行4.00%3.93%2.03%1.99%2.10%2.10%張家港行4.76%4.50%2.47%2.42%2.46%2.27%紫金銀行4.10%3.98%2.33%2.25%1.90%1.86%青農(nóng)商行4.05%3.83%2.25%2.24%1.96%1.75%渝農(nóng)商行4.37%4.13%2.34%2.28%2.21%2.04%瑞豐銀行4.48%4.32%2.39%2.36%2.29%2.16%All3.76%3.68%1.91%1.89%2.01%1.95%六大行3.56%3.52%1.71%1.72%2.01%1.96%股份行4.12%3.97%2.21%2.14%2.07%1.99%城商行4.10%3.94%2.44%2.34%1.83%1.76%農(nóng)商行4.21%4.05%2.27%2.22%2.09%1.99%注：）生息資產(chǎn)收益率、計(jì)息負(fù)債成本率、凈息差均根據(jù)期初期末余額進(jìn)行測算，與公司實(shí)際公布值存在差異；2）標(biāo)紅表示該指標(biāo)2Q1表現(xiàn)好于221A；，中收：資場波動(dòng)財(cái)富業(yè)務(wù)表低迷從上市銀行的1季報(bào)中收表現(xiàn)來看，1季度共實(shí)現(xiàn)手續(xù)費(fèi)及傭金凈收入同比增長3.5%，增速較201年明顯回落（8.%，201A），我們預(yù)計(jì)主要和1季資本市場波動(dòng)下財(cái)富管理類業(yè)務(wù)收入增長趨緩有關(guān)，整體中收占比較2021年末升2.2ct至7.0%。個(gè)體表現(xiàn)來看，仍有多個(gè)體1季度中間業(yè)務(wù)表現(xiàn)較好，增速維持在較高水平，如大中型銀行中的郵儲(chǔ)銀行（39.6%、興業(yè)行（18.8%）、浙商銀行331%），反映財(cái)富管理能力建效果顯著。圖2：上市銀行中收增速明顯回落A Q1工商銀工商銀建設(shè)銀中國銀農(nóng)業(yè)銀交通銀郵儲(chǔ)銀招商銀中信銀民生銀興業(yè)銀浦發(fā)銀光大銀華夏銀平安銀浙商銀北京銀南京銀寧波銀上海銀江蘇銀貴陽銀杭州銀成都銀鄭州銀西安銀長沙銀廈門銀重慶銀蘇州銀齊魯銀滬農(nóng)商江陰銀無錫銀常熟銀蘇農(nóng)銀紫金銀青農(nóng)商渝農(nóng)商，圖3：上市銀行中收占比環(huán)比提升A Q1建設(shè)銀中國銀農(nóng)業(yè)銀交通銀郵儲(chǔ)銀招商銀中信銀民生銀興業(yè)銀浦發(fā)銀華夏銀平安銀浙商銀北京銀南京銀寧波銀上海銀江蘇銀貴陽銀杭州銀鄭州銀青島銀西安銀長沙銀廈門銀重慶銀蘇州銀齊魯銀滬農(nóng)商江陰銀常熟銀蘇農(nóng)銀張家港紫金銀青農(nóng)商渝農(nóng)商瑞豐銀，費(fèi)用成本入比小上行1季度上市銀行業(yè)務(wù)及管理同比增長7.2%。上市銀行成收入比整體有所上行，較211同比提升0.3個(gè)百分至2.9%個(gè)體來看，股份行的上行最為顯著。近年來，行業(yè)費(fèi)用支出明顯加快，尤其在金融科技領(lǐng)域的支持力度明顯加大，考慮到疫情同時(shí)加速了行業(yè)服務(wù)模式的升級轉(zhuǎn)型，我們預(yù)計(jì)未來銀行在金融科技領(lǐng)域的費(fèi)用支持力度可能進(jìn)一步加碼。圖4：上市銀行221成本入比較201年小幅下降Q1 Q1工商銀工商銀建設(shè)銀中國銀農(nóng)業(yè)銀交通銀郵儲(chǔ)銀招商銀中信銀興業(yè)銀浦發(fā)銀光大銀華夏銀平安銀浙商銀北京銀南京銀寧波銀上海銀貴陽銀杭州銀成都銀鄭州銀青島銀西安銀長沙銀廈門銀重慶銀蘇州銀齊魯銀滬農(nóng)商江陰銀無錫銀常熟銀蘇農(nóng)銀張家港青農(nóng)商渝農(nóng)商瑞豐銀，質(zhì)：體不率延續(xù)善，關(guān)注2資產(chǎn)質(zhì)走勢從上市銀行1季度的資產(chǎn)質(zhì)表現(xiàn)來看，整體不良率環(huán)比24下降1bp至1.3%，我測算行業(yè)221加回核銷后的年化良凈生成率在0.73%（s.8%，2021A），反映行業(yè)整不良生成壓力可控。但結(jié)合前瞻性指標(biāo)來看，個(gè)體間的表現(xiàn)仍有分化，我們觀察到部分銀行的關(guān)注率/逾率環(huán)比有所抬升，預(yù)計(jì)和房地產(chǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)擾動(dòng)以及宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力下部分企業(yè)資金鏈緊張產(chǎn)生逾期欠息有關(guān)。撥備計(jì)提方面，1季度末上市銀行整體撥備覆蓋率在241，環(huán)比21年末提升3.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，貸比3.20%，環(huán)比上年末提升1bp，行業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)抵補(bǔ)能力進(jìn)一步提升，夯實(shí)的撥備水平有望為202年的利潤增長釋放彈性。表6：上市銀行2221資質(zhì)量表現(xiàn)不良率撥備覆蓋率撥貸比2021A221季環(huán)比2021A221季環(huán)比2021A221季環(huán)比工商銀行1.42%1.42%0.00%206%210%4.07%2.92%2.98%0.06%建設(shè)銀行1.42%1.40%-0.02%240%246%6.40%3.40%3.45%0.05%中國銀行1.33%1.31%-0.02%187%188%0.49%2.83%2.46%-0.37%農(nóng)業(yè)銀行1.43%1.41%-0.02%300%308%7.77%4.30%4.34%0.04%交通銀行1.48%1.47%-0.01%167%167%0.16%2.46%2.45%-0.01%郵儲(chǔ)銀行0.82%0.82%0.00%419%414%-5.03%3.43%3.35%-0.08%0.91%0.94%0.03%484%463%-21.1%4.42%4.35%-0.07%中信銀行1.39%1.35%-0.04%180%184%4.12%2.50%2.49%-0.01%民生銀行1.79%1.74%-0.05%145%143%-2.19%2.60%2.49%-0.1%興業(yè)銀行1.10%1.10%0.00%269%269%0.16%2.96%2.95%-0.01%浦發(fā)銀行1.61%1.58%-0.03%144%147%2.99%2.31%2.32%0.01%1.25%1.24%-0.01%187%188%0.50%2.34%2.33%-0.01%華夏銀行1.77%1.75%-0.02%151%153%2.10%2.67%2.68%0.01%平安銀行1.02%1.02%0.00%288%289%0.68%2.94%2.94%0.00%浙商銀行1.53%1.53%0.00%175%177%2.65%2.68%2.71%0.03%北京銀行1.44%1.44%0.00%210%212%1.28%3.03%3.04%0.01%南京銀行0.91%0.90%-0.01%397%398%1.07%3.63%3.58%-0.05%寧波銀行0.77%0.77%0.00%526%525%-0.74%4.03%4.06%0.03%上海銀行1.25%1.25%0.00%301%304%2.47%3.76%3.79%0.03%江蘇銀行1.08%1.03%-0.05%308%330%22.3%3.33%3.39%0.06%貴陽銀行1.45%1.61%0.16%271%260%-10.7%3.94%4.18%0.24%杭州銀行0.86%0.82%-0.04%568%580%12.3%4.86%4.77%-0.09%成都銀行0.98%0.91%-0.07%403%436%32.8%3.95%3.95%0.00%鄭州銀行1.85%1.80%-0.05%157%172%15.0%2.90%3.10%0.20%青島銀行1.34%1.33%-0.01%197%198%0.96%2.64%2.64%0.00%西安銀行1.32%1.25%-0.07%224%220%-3.90%2.95%2.76%-0.19%長沙銀行1.20%1.19%-0.01%298%301%3.16%3.56%3.57%0.01%廈門銀行0.91%0.90%-0.01%371%372%0.99%3.38%3.35%-0.03%重慶銀行1.30%1.30%0.00%274%270%-3.69%3.56%3.51%-0.05%蘇州銀行1.1%0.99%-0.12%423%464%40.7%4.70%4.58%-0.12%齊魯銀行1.35%1.33%-0.02%254%259%5.34%3.43%3.44%0.01%滬農(nóng)商行0.95%0.94%-0.01%442%430%-1.71%0.00%4.07%4.07%江陰銀行1.31%0.99%-0.32%331%457%126.2%4.37%4.51%0.14%無錫銀行0.93%0.87%-0.06%477%520%42.7%4.46%4.55%0.09%常熟銀行0.81%0.81%0.00%532%533%0.91%4.33%4.32%-0.01%蘇農(nóng)銀行1.01%1.00%-0.01%412%420%7.87%4.14%4.17%0.03%張家港行0.95%0.94%-0.01%475%482%6.98%4.49%4.53%0.04%紫金銀行1.45%1.35%-0.10%232%241%9.31%3.36%3.27%-0.09%青農(nóng)商行1.74%1.74%0.00%232%223%-8.90%4.02%3.88%-0.14%渝農(nóng)商行1.25%1.25%0.00%340%346%6.14%4.27%4.33%0.06%瑞豐銀行1.25%1.24%-0.01%253%261%7.91%3.17%3.24%0.07%All1.34%1.33%-0.01%238%241%3.46%3.18%3.20%0.01%六大行1.36%1.35%-0.01%236%241%4.10%3.23%3.25%0.02%股份行1.34%1.32%-0.01%218%218%0.59%2.91%2.88%-0.02%城商行1.17%1.15%-0.02%306%313%7.07%3.57%3.60%0.03%農(nóng)商行1.16%1.13%-0.03%357%363%6.18%4.15%4.1%-0.03%注：標(biāo)紅表明該指標(biāo)2Q1表現(xiàn)環(huán)比好于Q4，圖5：部分上市銀行關(guān)注率環(huán)比201年4季度有所上升Q1 A 環(huán)比變動(dòng)（右）.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%.%

.%.%.%.%.%.%.%交通銀郵儲(chǔ)銀招商銀交通銀郵儲(chǔ)銀招商銀興業(yè)銀浦發(fā)銀華夏銀平安銀南京銀寧波銀上海銀杭州銀成都銀鄭州銀青島銀廈門銀蘇州銀常熟銀蘇農(nóng)銀張家港行，展望222，考慮到三月末以來華東區(qū)域疫情管控升級，可能對當(dāng)?shù)氐闹行∥⑵髽I(yè)生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營帶來較大挑戰(zhàn)，2季度銀行資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量壓力可能邊際抬升。但我們認(rèn)為相比于20年初疫情爆發(fā)階段，行后續(xù)的資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量壓力可控。一方面，過去3-4年監(jiān)管引導(dǎo)行業(yè)嚴(yán)格資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量認(rèn)定、加大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)處置力度，行業(yè)存量資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量穩(wěn)健扎實(shí)；另一方面，穩(wěn)增長的政策要求明確，未來政策仍有發(fā)力空間有望托底經(jīng)濟(jì)、呵護(hù)銀行經(jīng)營，政策的底線思維下，我們預(yù)計(jì)銀行的不良生成壓力可控；此外，從風(fēng)險(xiǎn)抵補(bǔ)能力來看，2020以來行業(yè)加大了對信貸資產(chǎn)的撥備計(jì)提力度，絕大多數(shù)銀行的撥備覆蓋率水平均較020年初有較大的提升，厚實(shí)的撥備水平使得上市銀行具備良好的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承受能力。綜合來看，我們預(yù)計(jì)銀行的資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量表現(xiàn)有望保持平穩(wěn)，未來的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可控。資本資本力邊際升，中小行本補(bǔ)從資本約束來看，由于1季度資產(chǎn)規(guī)模的較快增長，大多數(shù)上市銀行的核心一級資本充足率環(huán)比21年末有所下降，我們觀察到多家中小銀行核心一級資本充足率較監(jiān)管紅線的差距在1以內(nèi)，2022年在監(jiān)管要求加大信貸放力度支持實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的背景下，未來或存在資本補(bǔ)充壓力，后續(xù)能通過內(nèi)生或外延的方式加強(qiáng)資本補(bǔ)充，夯實(shí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)抵補(bǔ)能力。表7：上市銀行核心一級資本充足率與監(jiān)管紅線的差距4