公司戰(zhàn)略和凈現(xiàn)值分析報(bào)告課件

ChapterOutline8.1CorporateStrategyandPositiveNPV8.2DecisionTrees8.3SensitivityAnalysis,ScenarioAnalysis,andBreak-EvenAnalysis8.4Options8.5SummaryandConclusionsChapterOutline8.1CorporateSIntroducenewproductsAppleCorporationandthemouseDevelopcoretechnologyHondaandsmallenginesCreatebarriertoentryQualcomm’spatentsonproprietarytechnologyIntroducevariationsonexistingproductsChrysler’sPTCruiserCreateproductdifferentiationCoca-Cola—it’stherealthingUtilizeorganizationalinnovationMotorolajust-in-timeinventorymanagementExploitanewtechnologyYahoo!’suseofbanneradvertisementsonthewebCorporateStrategyandPositiveNPVIntroducenewproductsCorporatCorporateStrategyandtheStockMarketThereshouldbeaconnectionbetweenthestockmarketandcapitalbudgeting.IfthefirminvestsinapositiveNPVprojects,thefirm’sstockpriceshouldgoup.Sometimesthestockmarketprovidesnegativecluesastoanewproject’sNPV.ConsiderAT&T’srepeatedattemptstopenetratethecomputer-manufacturingindustry.CorporateStrategyandtheSto8.2DecisionTreesAllowustographicallyrepresentthealternativesavailabletousineachperiodandthelikelyconsequencesofouractions.8.2DecisionTreesAllowustoExampleofDecisionTreeDonotstudyStudyfinanceOpencirclesrepresentdecisionstobemade.Filledcirclesrepresentreceiptofinformatione.g.atestscoreinthisclass.Thelinesleadingawayfromthecirclesrepresentthealternatives.“C”“A”“B”“F”“D”ExampleofDecisionTreeDonotStewartPharmaceuticalsTheStewartPharmaceuticalsCorporationisconsideringinvestingindevelopingadrugthatcuresthecommoncold.Acorporateplanninggroup,includingrepresentativesfromproduction,marketing,andengineering,hasrecommendedthatthefirmgoaheadwiththetestanddevelopmentphase.Thispreliminaryphasewilllastoneyearandcost$1billion.Furthermore,thegroupbelievesthatthereisa60%chancethattestswillprovesuccessful.Iftheinitialtestsaresuccessful,StewartPharmaceuticalscangoaheadwithfull-scaleproduction.Thisinvestmentphasewillcost$1,600million.Productionwilloccuroverthenext4years.StewartPharmaceuticalsTheStStewartPharmaceuticalsNPVofFull-ScaleProductionfollowingSuccessfulTestNotethattheNPViscalculatedasofdate1,thedateatwhichtheinvestmentof$1,600millionismade.Laterwebringthisnumberbacktodate0.InvestmentYear1Years2-5Revenues$7,000VariableCosts(3,000)FixedCosts(1,800)Depreciation(400)Pretaxprofit$1,800Tax(34%)(612)NetProfit$1,188CashFlow-$1,600$1,588StewartPharmaceuticalsNPVofDecisionTreeforStewartPharmaceuticalDonottestTestFailureSuccessDonotinvestInvestInvestThefirmhastwodecisionstomake:Totestornottotest.Toinvestornottoinvest.DecisionTreeforStewartPharStewartPharmaceutical:DecisiontoTestLet’smovebacktothefirststage,wherethedecisionboilsdowntothesimplequestion:shouldweinvest?Theexpectedpayoffevaluatedatdate1is:TheNPVevaluatedatdate0is:Soweshouldtest.StewartPharmaceutical:Decisi8.3SensitivityAnalysis,ScenarioAnalysis,andBreak-EvenAnalysisAllowsustolookthebehindtheNPVnumbertoseefirmourestimatesare.Whenworkingwithspreadsheets,trytobuildyourmodelsothatyoucanjustadjustvariablesinonecellandhavetheNPVcalculationskeytothat.8.3SensitivityAnalysis,ScenSensitivityAnalysisandScenarioAnalysisIntheStewartPharmaceuticalexample,revenueswereprojectedtobe$7,000,000peryear.Iftheyareonly$6,000,000peryear,theNPVfallsto$1,341.64

Alsoknownas“whatif”analysis;weexaminehowsensitiveaparticularNPVcalculationistochangesintheunderlyingassumptions.InvestmentYear1Years2-5Revenues$6,000VariableCosts(3,000)FixedCosts(1,800)Depreciation(400)PretaxprofitTax(34%)NetProfitCashFlow-$1,600SensitivityAnalysisandScenaSensitivityAnalysisWecanseethatNPVisverysensitivetochangesinrevenues.Forexample,a14%dropinrevenueleadstoa61%dropinNPVForevery1%dropinrevenuewecanexpectroughlya4.25%dropinNPVSensitivityAnalysisWecanseeScenarioAnalysisAvariationonsensitivityanalysisisscenarioanalysis.Forexample,thefollowingthreescenarioscouldapplytoStewartPharmaceuticals:Thenextyearseachhaveheavycoldseasons,andsalesexceedexpectations,butlaborcostsskyrocket.Thenextyearsarenormalandsalesmeetexpectations.Thenextyearseachhavelighterthannormalcoldseasons,sosalesfailtomeetexpectations.OtherscenarioscouldapplytoFDAapprovalfortheirdrug.Foreachscenario,calculatetheNPV.ScenarioAnalysisAvariationoBreak-EvenAnalysisAnotherwaytoexaminevariabilityinourforecastsisbreak-evenanalysis.IntheStewartPharmaceuticalsexample,wecouldbeconcernedwithbreak-evenrevenue,break-evensalesvolumeorbreak-evenprice.Thebreak-evenIATCFisgivenby:Break-EvenAnalysisAnotherwayBreak-EvenAnalysisWecanstartwiththebreak-evenincrementalafter-taxcashflowandworkbackwardsthroughtheincomestatementtobackoutbreak-evenrevenue:InvestmentcalculationCashFlowRevenuesVariableCostsFixedCostsDepreciationPretaxprofitTax(34%)NetProfitCashFlow$504.75InvestmentcalculationCashFlowRevenuesVariableCostsFixedCostsDepreciationPretaxprofitTax(34%)NetProfit=504-depreciation$104.75CashFlow$504.75InvestmentcalculationCashFlowRevenuesVariableCostsFixedCostsDepreciationPretaxprofit=104.75÷(1-.34)$158.72Tax(34%)NetProfit=504-depreciation$104.75CashFlow$504.75InvestmentcalculationCashFlowRevenues=158.72+VC+FC+D$5,358.72VariableCosts(3,000)FixedCosts(1,800)Depreciation(400)Pretaxprofit=104.75÷(1-.34)$158.72Tax(34%)NetProfit=504-depreciation$104.75CashFlow$504.75Break-EvenAnalysisWecanstarBreak-EvenAnalysisNowthatwehavebreak-evenrevenueas$5,358.72millionwecancalculatebreak-evenpriceandsalesvolume.Iftheoriginalplanwastogeneraterevenuesof$7,000millionbysellingthecoldcureat$10perdoseandselling700milliondosesperyear,wecanreachbreak-evenrevenuewithasalesvolumeofonly:Wecanreachbreak-evenrevenuewithapriceofonly:Break-EvenAnalysisNowthatwe8.4OptionsOneofthefundamentalinsightsofmodernfinancetheoryisthatoptionshavevalue.Thephrase“Weareoutofoptions”issurelyasignoftrouble.8.4OptionsOneofthefundamenOptionsBecausecorporationsmakedecisionsinadynamicenvironment,theyhaveoptionsthatshouldbeconsideredinprojectvaluation.TheOptiontoExpandHasvalueifdemandturnsouttobehigherthanexpected.TheOptiontoAbandonHasvalueifdemandturnsouttobelowerthanexpected.TheOptiontoDelayHasvalueiftheunderlyingvariablesarechangingwithafavorabletrend.OptionsBecausecorporationsmaTheOptiontoDelay:ExampleConsidertheaboveproject,whichcanbeundertakeninanyofthenext4years.Thediscountrateis10percent.Thepresentvalueofthebenefitsatthetimetheprojectislaunchedremainconstantat$25,000,butsincecostsaredecliningtheNPVatthetimeoflaunchsteadilyrises.Thebesttimetolaunchtheprojectisinyear2—thisscheduleyieldsthehighestNPVwhenjudgedtoday.TheOptiontoDelay:ExampleCoDiscountedCashFlowsandOptionsWecancalculatethemarketvalueofaprojectasthesumoftheNPVoftheprojectwithoutoptionsandthevalueofthemanagerialoptionsimplicitintheproject.Agoodexamplewouldbecomparingthedesirabilityofaspecializedmachineversusamoreversatilemachine.Iftheybothcostaboutthesameandlastthesameamountoftimethemoreversatilemachineismorevaluablebecauseitcomeswithoptions.DiscountedCashFlowsandOptiTheOptiontoAbandon:ExampleSupposethatwearedrillinganoilwell.Thedrillingrigcosts$300todayandinoneyearthewelliseitherasuccessorafailure.Theoutcomesareequallylikely.Thediscountrateis10%.ThePVofthesuccessfulpayoffattimeoneis$575.ThePVoftheunsuccessfulpayoffattimeoneis$0.TheOptiontoAbandon:ExampleTheOptiontoAbandon:ExampleTraditionalNPVanalysiswouldindicaterejectionoftheproject.TheOptiontoAbandon:ExampleTheOptiontoAbandon:ExampleThefirmhastwodecisionstomake:drillornot,abandonorstay.DonotdrillDrillFailureSuccess:PV=$500Selltherig;salvagevalue=$250Sitonrig;stareatemptyhole:PV=$0.TraditionalNPVanalysisoverlookstheoptiontoabandon.TheOptiontoAbandon:ExampleTheOptiontoAbandon:ExampleWhenweincludethevalueoftheoptiontoabandon,thedrillingprojectshouldproceed:TheOptiontoAbandon:ExampleValuationoftheOptiontoAbandonRecallthatwecancalculatethemarketvalueofaprojectasthesumoftheNPVoftheprojectwithoutoptionsandthevalueofthemanagerialoptionsimplicitintheproject.ValuationoftheOptiontoAba8.5SummaryandConclusionsThischapterdiscussesanumberofpracticalapplicationsofcapitalbudgeting.Weaskaboutthesourcesofpositivenetpresentvalueandexplainwhatmanagerscandotocreatepositivenetpresentvalue.Sensitivityanalysisgivesmanagersabetterfeelforaproject’srisks.Scenarioanalysisconsidersthejointmovementofseveraldifferentfactorstogivearichersenseofaproject’srisk.Break-evenanalysis,calculatedonanetpresentvaluebasis,givesmanagersminimumtargets.Thehiddenoptionsincapitalbudgeting,suchastheoptiontoexpand,theoptiontoabandon,andtimingoptionswerediscussed.8.5SummaryandConclusionsThiChapterOutline8.1CorporateStrategyandPositiveNPV8.2DecisionTrees8.3SensitivityAnalysis,ScenarioAnalysis,andBreak-EvenAnalysis8.4Options8.5SummaryandConclusionsChapterOutline8.1CorporateSIntroducenewproductsAppleCorporationandthemouseDevelopcoretechnologyHondaandsmallenginesCreatebarriertoentryQualcomm’spatentsonproprietarytechnologyIntroducevariationsonexistingproductsChrysler’sPTCruiserCreateproductdifferentiationCoca-Cola—it’stherealthingUtilizeorganizationalinnovationMotorolajust-in-timeinventorymanagementExploitanewtechnologyYahoo!’suseofbanneradvertisementsonthewebCorporateStrategyandPositiveNPVIntroducenewproductsCorporatCorporateStrategyandtheStockMarketThereshouldbeaconnectionbetweenthestockmarketandcapitalbudgeting.IfthefirminvestsinapositiveNPVprojects,thefirm’sstockpriceshouldgoup.Sometimesthestockmarketprovidesnegativecluesastoanewproject’sNPV.ConsiderAT&T’srepeatedattemptstopenetratethecomputer-manufacturingindustry.CorporateStrategyandtheSto8.2DecisionTreesAllowustographicallyrepresentthealternativesavailabletousineachperiodandthelikelyconsequencesofouractions.8.2DecisionTreesAllowustoExampleofDecisionTreeDonotstudyStudyfinanceOpencirclesrepresentdecisionstobemade.Filledcirclesrepresentreceiptofinformatione.g.atestscoreinthisclass.Thelinesleadingawayfromthecirclesrepresentthealternatives.“C”“A”“B”“F”“D”ExampleofDecisionTreeDonotStewartPharmaceuticalsTheStewartPharmaceuticalsCorporationisconsideringinvestingindevelopingadrugthatcuresthecommoncold.Acorporateplanninggroup,includingrepresentativesfromproduction,marketing,andengineering,hasrecommendedthatthefirmgoaheadwiththetestanddevelopmentphase.Thispreliminaryphasewilllastoneyearandcost$1billion.Furthermore,thegroupbelievesthatthereisa60%chancethattestswillprovesuccessful.Iftheinitialtestsaresuccessful,StewartPharmaceuticalscangoaheadwithfull-scaleproduction.Thisinvestmentphasewillcost$1,600million.Productionwilloccuroverthenext4years.StewartPharmaceuticalsTheStStewartPharmaceuticalsNPVofFull-ScaleProductionfollowingSuccessfulTestNotethattheNPViscalculatedasofdate1,thedateatwhichtheinvestmentof$1,600millionismade.Laterwebringthisnumberbacktodate0.InvestmentYear1Years2-5Revenues$7,000VariableCosts(3,000)FixedCosts(1,800)Depreciation(400)Pretaxprofit$1,800Tax(34%)(612)NetProfit$1,188CashFlow-$1,600$1,588StewartPharmaceuticalsNPVofDecisionTreeforStewartPharmaceuticalDonottestTestFailureSuccessDonotinvestInvestInvestThefirmhastwodecisionstomake:Totestornottotest.Toinvestornottoinvest.DecisionTreeforStewartPharStewartPharmaceutical:DecisiontoTestLet’smovebacktothefirststage,wherethedecisionboilsdowntothesimplequestion:shouldweinvest?Theexpectedpayoffevaluatedatdate1is:TheNPVevaluatedatdate0is:Soweshouldtest.StewartPharmaceutical:Decisi8.3SensitivityAnalysis,ScenarioAnalysis,andBreak-EvenAnalysisAllowsustolookthebehindtheNPVnumbertoseefirmourestimatesare.Whenworkingwithspreadsheets,trytobuildyourmodelsothatyoucanjustadjustvariablesinonecellandhavetheNPVcalculationskeytothat.8.3SensitivityAnalysis,ScenSensitivityAnalysisandScenarioAnalysisIntheStewartPharmaceuticalexample,revenueswereprojectedtobe$7,000,000peryear.Iftheyareonly$6,000,000peryear,theNPVfallsto$1,341.64

Alsoknownas“whatif”analysis;weexaminehowsensitiveaparticularNPVcalculationistochangesintheunderlyingassumptions.InvestmentYear1Years2-5Revenues$6,000VariableCosts(3,000)FixedCosts(1,800)Depreciation(400)PretaxprofitTax(34%)NetProfitCashFlow-$1,600SensitivityAnalysisandScenaSensitivityAnalysisWecanseethatNPVisverysensitivetochangesinrevenues.Forexample,a14%dropinrevenueleadstoa61%dropinNPVForevery1%dropinrevenuewecanexpectroughlya4.25%dropinNPVSensitivityAnalysisWecanseeScenarioAnalysisAvariationonsensitivityanalysisisscenarioanalysis.Forexample,thefollowingthreescenarioscouldapplytoStewartPharmaceuticals:Thenextyearseachhaveheavycoldseasons,andsalesexceedexpectations,butlaborcostsskyrocket.Thenextyearsarenormalandsalesmeetexpectations.Thenextyearseachhavelighterthannormalcoldseasons,sosalesfailtomeetexpectations.OtherscenarioscouldapplytoFDAapprovalfortheirdrug.Foreachscenario,calculatetheNPV.ScenarioAnalysisAvariationoBreak-EvenAnalysisAnotherwaytoexaminevariabilityinourforecastsisbreak-evenanalysis.IntheStewartPharmaceuticalsexample,wecouldbeconcernedwithbreak-evenrevenue,break-evensalesvolumeorbreak-evenprice.Thebreak-evenIATCFisgivenby:Break-EvenAnalysisAnotherwayBreak-EvenAnalysisWecanstartwiththebreak-evenincrementalafter-taxcashflowandworkbackwardsthroughtheincomestatementtobackoutbreak-evenrevenue:InvestmentcalculationCashFlowRevenuesVariableCostsFixedCostsDepreciationPretaxprofitTax(34%)NetProfitCashFlow$504.75InvestmentcalculationCashFlowRevenuesVariableCostsFixedCostsDepreciationPretaxprofitTax(34%)NetProfit=504-depreciation$104.75CashFlow$504.75InvestmentcalculationCashFlowRevenuesVariableCostsFixedCostsDepreciationPretaxprofit=104.75÷(1-.34)$158.72Tax(34%)NetProfit=504-depreciation$104.75CashFlow$504.75InvestmentcalculationCashFlowRevenues=158.72+VC+FC+D$5,358.72VariableCosts(3,000)FixedCosts(1,800)Depreciation(400)Pretaxprofit=104.75÷(1-.34)$158.72Tax(34%)NetProfit=504-depreciation$104.75CashFlow$504.75Break-EvenAnalysisWecanstarBreak-EvenAnalysisNowthatwehavebreak-evenrevenueas$5,358.72millionwecancalculatebreak-evenpriceandsalesvolume.Iftheoriginalplanwastogeneraterevenuesof$7,000millionbysellingthecoldcureat$10perdoseandselling700milliondosesperyear,wecanreachbreak-evenrevenuewithasalesvolumeofonly:Wecanreachbreak-evenrevenuewithapriceofonly:Break-EvenAnalysisNowthatwe8.4OptionsOneofthefundamentalinsightsofmodernfinancetheoryisthatoptionshavevalue.Thephrase“Weareoutofoptions”issurelyasignoftrouble.8.4OptionsOneofthefundamenOptionsBecausecorporationsmakedecisionsinadynamicenvironment,theyhaveoptionsthatshouldbeconsideredinprojectvaluation.TheOptiontoExpandHasvalueifdemandturnsouttobehigherthanexpected.TheOptiontoAbandonHasvalueifdemandturnsouttobelowerthanexpected.TheOptiontoDelayHasvalueiftheunderlyingvariablesarechangingwithafavorabletrend.OptionsBecausecorporationsmaTheOptiontoDelay:ExampleConsidertheaboveproject,whichcanbeundertakeninanyofthenext4years.Thediscountrateis10percent.Thepresentvalueofthebenefitsatthetimetheprojectislaunchedremainconstantat$25,000,butsincecostsaredecliningtheNPVatthetimeoflaunchsteadilyrises.Thebesttimetolaunchtheprojectisinyear2—thisscheduleyieldsthehighestNPVwhenjudgedtoday.TheOptiontoDelay:ExampleCoDiscountedCashFlowsandOptionsWecancalculatethemarketvalueofaprojectasthesumoftheNPVoftheprojectwithoutoptionsandthevalueofthemanagerialoptionsimplicitintheproject.Agoodexamplewouldbecomparingthedesirabilityofaspecializedmachineversusamoreversatilemachine.Iftheybothcostaboutthesameandlastthesameamountofti