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ProjectPortfolioManagement

AnIntroduction

李俊偉

November2002

Beijing項目管理者聯(lián)盟,MYPM.NET

ProjectPortfolioManagementContentEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement(PPM)PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM,ProcessandTechniques2Content2TheEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement1952,ModernPortfolioTheory(MPT),HarryMarkowitz,JournalofFinance,PortfolioSelection1990,HarryMarkowitzsharedNobelPrize,dominantapproachusedtomanageriskandreturnwithinfinancialmarkets1981,F.WarrenMcFarian,PortfolioApproachtoInformationSystems,HBR,toemployarisk-basedapproachtotheselectionandmanagementofITprojects.1990s,abroaderuseofideasofportfoliomanagement1998,JohnThorp,TheInformationParadox.Portfoliomanagementwasusedtomanageriskandmaximizereturnalonganumberofdimensions.Present,portfoliomanagementascentralelementsofgoodinvestmentmanagement3TheEmergenceofProjectPortfPortfolioManagement,theoverallpictureFocus(StrategicPlanning)Source:PMSolutions,PortfolioManagement,DianneBridgesSelect(PortfolioManagement)Manage(ProjectManagement)4PortfolioManagement,theoverContentEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement(PPM)PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM,ProcessandTechniques5Content5TheOldPhilosophyaboutPortfolio

Don’tputallyoureggsinonebasket.Riskaversionseemstobeaninstinctivetrait

inhumanbeings.6TheOldPhilosophyaboutPortfReturnandRiskinFinancialMarketexpectedreturnstandarddeviation(%)capitalappreciationgrowthofincome06121824303620181614121086420incomeinflationT-billsintermediate-termgovernmentbondslong-termgovernmentbondslong-termcorporatebondslargecompanystockssmallcompanystocksstabilityofprincipal7ReturnandRiskinFinancialMTheRoleofCombiningSecuritiesTheexpectedreturnofaportfolioisaweightedaverageofthecomponentexpectedreturns.8TheRoleofCombiningSecuritiTheRoleofCombiningSecurities10two-securityportfoliorisk=riskA+riskB+interactiveriskThetotalriskofaportfoliocomesfromthevarianceofthecomponentsandfromtherelationshipsamongthecomponents.9TheRoleofCombiningSecuritiTheRoleofCombiningSecuritiesexpectedreturnrisk

betterperformance

Aportfoliodominatesallothersifnootherequallyriskyportfoliohasahigherexpectedreturn,orifnoportfoliowiththesameexpectedreturnhaslessrisk.

Thepointofdiversificationistoachieveagivenlevelofexpectedreturnwhilebearingtheleastpossiblerisk.10TheRoleofCombiningSecuritiTheEfficientFrontier:OptimumDiversificationofRiskyAssetsexpectedreturnrisk(standarddeviationofreturns)impossibleportfoliosdominatedportfoliosefficientfrontierTheoptimalcombinationsresultinlowestlevelofriskforagivenreturnTheoptimaltrade-offisdescribedastheefficientfrontier11TheEfficientFrontier:expecTheEfficientFrontiervsNaiveDiversification

Asportfoliosizeincreases,totalportfoliorisk,onaverage,declines.Afteracertainpoint,however,themarginalreductioninriskfromtheadditionofanothersecurityismodest.totalriskNon-diversifiablerisknumberofsecurities

Naivediversificationistherandomselectionofportfoliocomponentswithoutconductinganyserioussecurityanalysis.12TheEfficientFrontiervsNaivRiskReductionwithDiversificationNumberofSecuritiesSt.DeviationMarketRiskUniqueRisk13RiskReductionwithDiversificMarketorsystematicrisk:riskrelatedtothemacroeconomicfactorormarketindexUnsystematicorfirmspecificrisk:risknotrelatedtothemacrofactorormarketindexTotalrisk=Systematic+UnsystematicComponentsofRisk14Marketorsystematicrisk:risTwo-SecurityPortfolioswithDifferentCorrelations=113%%8E(r)St.Dev12%20%=.3=-1=-115Two-SecurityPortfolioswithDRelationshipdependsoncorrelationcoefficient-1.0<

<+1.0Thesmallerthecorrelation,thegreatertheriskreductionpotentialIf=+1.0,noriskreductionispossiblePortfolioRisk/Return,CorrelationEffects16RelationshipdependsoncorrelStructuringaPortfolio:AssetAllocationattitudetowardriskneedforreturnrealizedreturnandriskwiththepassageoftimestocksbondsrealestatecashforeignequitiesPortfolioASSETCLASSESindividualchoiceassetclassmixinvestmentresults17StructuringaPortfolio:AsseContentEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement(PPM)PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM,ProcessandTechniques18Content18WhatisprojectportfoliomanagementPortfolioManagementistheprojectselectionprocessandinvolvesidentifyingopportunities:assessingtheorganizationalfit;analyzingthecosts,benefits,andrisks;anddevelopingandselectingaportfolio.Theartofprojectportfoliomanagementis:doingtherightthing,selectingtherightmixofprojectsandadjustingastimeevolvesandcircumstancesunfold.19WhatisprojectportfoliomanaPortfolioManagementis:Defininggoalsandobjectives–clearlyarticulatewhattheportfolioisexpectedtoachieveUnderstanding,accelerating,andmakingtradeoffs–determinehowmuchtoinvestinonethingasopposedtosomethingelseIdentifying,eliminating,minimizing,anddiversifyingrisk–selectamixofinvestmentsthatwillavoidunduerisk,willnotexceedacceptablerisktolerancelevels,andwillspreadrisksacrossprojectsandinitiativestominimizeadverseimpactsMonitoringportfolioperformance–understandtheprogressthattheportfolioismakingtowardtheachievementofthegoalsandobjectivesAchievingadesiredobjective–havetheconfidencethatthedesiredoutcomewilllikelybeachievedgiventheaggregateofinvestmentsthataremade20PortfolioManagementis:DefinPortfolioManagementisNotDoingaseriesofproject–specificcalculationsandanalyses,suchasreturnoninvestment,benefit-costanalysis,netpresentvalue,paybackperiod,rateofreturn,andthenadjustingthemalltoaccountforrisk.–theseareprojectspecificCollectingafter-the-marketinformationonprojectstoproduceareportthattheorganizationhopeswillsatisfysomeorganizationalreportingrequirement.21PortfolioManagementisNotDoiThebenefitsofPortfolioManagementHavingastructureinplacetoselecttherightprojectsandimmediatelyremovethewrongprojectsPlacingresourceswhereitmatters,reducingwastefulspendingLinkingportfoliodecisionstostrategicdirectionandbusinessgoalsEstablishinglogic,reasoning,andasenseoffairnessbehindportfoliodecisionsEstablishingownershipamongstthestaffbyinvolvementattherightlevels22ThebenefitsofPortfolioManaContentEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement(PPM)PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM,ProcessandTechniques23Content23ProjectPortfolioManagement,Process&TechniqueFourstepsProjectEvaluationMatrixEvaluationCriteriaExamples24ProjectPortfolioManagement,Step1:DefinethePortfolioFirst,establishtheoverallportfoliomission.Thismissionstatementwillbeusedtoinitiallydeterminewhatprojectsareinoroutoftheportfolio.Themissionstatementcanbesimple,like:

TheIntranetPortfoliocoversallprojectstobedeployedonthecorporateintranet.25Step1:DefinethePortfolioFiStep2:GathertheProjectsNow,gatheralltheprojectstogetherthatyouthinkmightbeintheportfolio.Thismaynotbethelistyoualreadyhave.Someprojects,includingduplicateefforts,maybeunderwayinotherpartsoftheorganization.26Step2:GathertheProjectsNowStep3:BeginWeedingOncetheprojectlistisestablished,beginweedingthelistdown.Removeprojectsthat:Areduplicateefforts.Hereisanopportunitytosavemoneybypoolingtwoormoreeffortsintoasingleproject.Donotmeetthemissionarea.Someprojectsmaybeunderyourwingbutdonotfitinthemissionarea.Removethemfromyourportfolioandplacethemelsewhere.27Step3:BeginWeedingOncetheStep4:BeginEvaluatingOncetheportfoliolistisset,beginevaluatingeachprojecttodeterminewhattheoverallportfoliowilllooklike.Usingthefour-quadrantmatrixhere,evaluatetheprojectsagainsttwomajorcriteria:Whatarethepotentialrisksinimplementingthisproject?Whatarethepotentialbenefitsinimplementingthisproject?28Step4:BeginEvaluatingOncetQuadrantIIQuadrantIQuadrantIIIQuadrantIVProjectRiskProjectBenefitsLowHighHighProjectEvaluationMatrix29QuadrantQuadrantQuadrantQuadraUsingtheMatrixThematrixisusedasascoringtooltomapprojectsagainsttheevaluatedlevelofriskandtheevaluatedpotentialbeneficialimpactofaproject.Projectsareevaluatedonbothriskandbenefitfromlowtohighusingaseriesofquestionsandscores.Projectsarethenevaluatedintheworksheetanddecisionsmadeforinclusionandbalancingtheportfolio.30UsingtheMatrixThematrixisQuadrantIIQuadrantIQuadrantIIIQuadrantIVProjectRiskProjectBenefitsLowHighHighMatrixDecisionRegionsProjectstoremovefromtheportfolioProjectstokeepintheportfolio31QuadrantQuadrantQuadrantQuadraEvaluationCriteriaTheEvaluationMatrixusestwobasiccriteria:RiskandBenefit.Fivesampleriskareas:RiskofCompletionOnTime(ScheduleRisk)RiskofManagingMultipleOrganizations(OrganizationalRisk)RiskofTechnologiesUsedfortheApplication(TechnologicalRisk)RiskofNotProceedingwiththeProject(RiskofNotDoingIt)ProjectsImplementationandMaintenanceCostsFivesamplebenefitareas:NumberofpotentialgroupsorusersneedingapplicationProjectsImpactonCross-FunctionalActivitiesProjectsImpactonImprovingInternalCultureProjectsImpactonImprovingExternalCustomerServiceEstimatedBenefit/CostRatio(PotentialSavingsorProfits)32EvaluationCriteriaTheEvaluatRiskAssessmentScorecard-illustrationRiskCategoryWeightedScaleExampleLowRiskProjectScoreHighRiskProjectScoreScheduleRiskAssessment25%15OrganizationalRiskAssessment20%24TechnologicalRiskAssessment20%17RiskofNotDoingProject25%41ProjectSupportCosts10%14TOTALRISKSCORES100%92633RiskAssessmentScorecard-illBenefitsAssessmentScorecard-illustrationBenefitCategoryWeightedScaleExampleLowBenefitProjectScoreHighBenefitProjectScorePotentialUserBase20%25Cross-FunctionalImprovements10%16ImprovingCorporateCulture20%26ImprovingCustomerService25%05Benefit/CostRatio25%15TOTALRISKSCORES100%62734BenefitsAssessmentScorecardPlottheProjectontheMatrixQuadrantIIQuadrantIQuadrantIIIQuadrantIVProjectRiskProjectBenefitsLowHighHighOurLowRisk/LowBenefitProjectMightBeRejectedorDelayedOurHighRisk/HighBenefitProjectMightBeApproved35PlottheProjectontheMatrixWhatisthedifferencePortfolioManagementinthefinancialmarketProjectmanagement36WhatisthedifferencePortfoliQuestionsandAnswers3737ThankYou!李俊偉Contactat:george.lee@TalentARoom318,Jin’OuPlaza,#2AnZhenLi,Chaoyang,Beijing,China100029Tel+86-1064437361.64437362Fax+86-106443736338Room318,Jin’OuPlaza,#2An

ProjectPortfolioManagement

AnIntroduction

李俊偉

November2002

Beijing項目管理者聯(lián)盟,MYPM.NET

ProjectPortfolioManagementContentEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement(PPM)PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM,ProcessandTechniques40Content2TheEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement1952,ModernPortfolioTheory(MPT),HarryMarkowitz,JournalofFinance,PortfolioSelection1990,HarryMarkowitzsharedNobelPrize,dominantapproachusedtomanageriskandreturnwithinfinancialmarkets1981,F.WarrenMcFarian,PortfolioApproachtoInformationSystems,HBR,toemployarisk-basedapproachtotheselectionandmanagementofITprojects.1990s,abroaderuseofideasofportfoliomanagement1998,JohnThorp,TheInformationParadox.Portfoliomanagementwasusedtomanageriskandmaximizereturnalonganumberofdimensions.Present,portfoliomanagementascentralelementsofgoodinvestmentmanagement41TheEmergenceofProjectPortfPortfolioManagement,theoverallpictureFocus(StrategicPlanning)Source:PMSolutions,PortfolioManagement,DianneBridgesSelect(PortfolioManagement)Manage(ProjectManagement)42PortfolioManagement,theoverContentEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement(PPM)PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM,ProcessandTechniques43Content5TheOldPhilosophyaboutPortfolio

Don’tputallyoureggsinonebasket.Riskaversionseemstobeaninstinctivetrait

inhumanbeings.44TheOldPhilosophyaboutPortfReturnandRiskinFinancialMarketexpectedreturnstandarddeviation(%)capitalappreciationgrowthofincome06121824303620181614121086420incomeinflationT-billsintermediate-termgovernmentbondslong-termgovernmentbondslong-termcorporatebondslargecompanystockssmallcompanystocksstabilityofprincipal45ReturnandRiskinFinancialMTheRoleofCombiningSecuritiesTheexpectedreturnofaportfolioisaweightedaverageofthecomponentexpectedreturns.46TheRoleofCombiningSecuritiTheRoleofCombiningSecurities10two-securityportfoliorisk=riskA+riskB+interactiveriskThetotalriskofaportfoliocomesfromthevarianceofthecomponentsandfromtherelationshipsamongthecomponents.47TheRoleofCombiningSecuritiTheRoleofCombiningSecuritiesexpectedreturnrisk

betterperformance

Aportfoliodominatesallothersifnootherequallyriskyportfoliohasahigherexpectedreturn,orifnoportfoliowiththesameexpectedreturnhaslessrisk.

Thepointofdiversificationistoachieveagivenlevelofexpectedreturnwhilebearingtheleastpossiblerisk.48TheRoleofCombiningSecuritiTheEfficientFrontier:OptimumDiversificationofRiskyAssetsexpectedreturnrisk(standarddeviationofreturns)impossibleportfoliosdominatedportfoliosefficientfrontierTheoptimalcombinationsresultinlowestlevelofriskforagivenreturnTheoptimaltrade-offisdescribedastheefficientfrontier49TheEfficientFrontier:expecTheEfficientFrontiervsNaiveDiversification

Asportfoliosizeincreases,totalportfoliorisk,onaverage,declines.Afteracertainpoint,however,themarginalreductioninriskfromtheadditionofanothersecurityismodest.totalriskNon-diversifiablerisknumberofsecurities

Naivediversificationistherandomselectionofportfoliocomponentswithoutconductinganyserioussecurityanalysis.50TheEfficientFrontiervsNaivRiskReductionwithDiversificationNumberofSecuritiesSt.DeviationMarketRiskUniqueRisk51RiskReductionwithDiversificMarketorsystematicrisk:riskrelatedtothemacroeconomicfactorormarketindexUnsystematicorfirmspecificrisk:risknotrelatedtothemacrofactorormarketindexTotalrisk=Systematic+UnsystematicComponentsofRisk52Marketorsystematicrisk:risTwo-SecurityPortfolioswithDifferentCorrelations=113%%8E(r)St.Dev12%20%=.3=-1=-153Two-SecurityPortfolioswithDRelationshipdependsoncorrelationcoefficient-1.0<

<+1.0Thesmallerthecorrelation,thegreatertheriskreductionpotentialIf=+1.0,noriskreductionispossiblePortfolioRisk/Return,CorrelationEffects54RelationshipdependsoncorrelStructuringaPortfolio:AssetAllocationattitudetowardriskneedforreturnrealizedreturnandriskwiththepassageoftimestocksbondsrealestatecashforeignequitiesPortfolioASSETCLASSESindividualchoiceassetclassmixinvestmentresults55StructuringaPortfolio:AsseContentEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement(PPM)PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM,ProcessandTechniques56Content18WhatisprojectportfoliomanagementPortfolioManagementistheprojectselectionprocessandinvolvesidentifyingopportunities:assessingtheorganizationalfit;analyzingthecosts,benefits,andrisks;anddevelopingandselectingaportfolio.Theartofprojectportfoliomanagementis:doingtherightthing,selectingtherightmixofprojectsandadjustingastimeevolvesandcircumstancesunfold.57WhatisprojectportfoliomanaPortfolioManagementis:Defininggoalsandobjectives–clearlyarticulatewhattheportfolioisexpectedtoachieveUnderstanding,accelerating,andmakingtradeoffs–determinehowmuchtoinvestinonethingasopposedtosomethingelseIdentifying,eliminating,minimizing,anddiversifyingrisk–selectamixofinvestmentsthatwillavoidunduerisk,willnotexceedacceptablerisktolerancelevels,andwillspreadrisksacrossprojectsandinitiativestominimizeadverseimpactsMonitoringportfolioperformance–understandtheprogressthattheportfolioismakingtowardtheachievementofthegoalsandobjectivesAchievingadesiredobjective–havetheconfidencethatthedesiredoutcomewilllikelybeachievedgiventheaggregateofinvestmentsthataremade58PortfolioManagementis:DefinPortfolioManagementisNotDoingaseriesofproject–specificcalculationsandanalyses,suchasreturnoninvestment,benefit-costanalysis,netpresentvalue,paybackperiod,rateofreturn,andthenadjustingthemalltoaccountforrisk.–theseareprojectspecificCollectingafter-the-marketinformationonprojectstoproduceareportthattheorganizationhopeswillsatisfysomeorganizationalreportingrequirement.59PortfolioManagementisNotDoiThebenefitsofPortfolioManagementHavingastructureinplacetoselecttherightprojectsandimmediatelyremovethewrongprojectsPlacingresourceswhereitmatters,reducingwastefulspendingLinkingportfoliodecisionstostrategicdirectionandbusinessgoalsEstablishinglogic,reasoning,andasenseoffairnessbehindportfoliodecisionsEstablishingownershipamongstthestaffbyinvolvementattherightlevels60ThebenefitsofPortfolioManaContentEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement(PPM)PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM,ProcessandTechniques61Content23ProjectPortfolioManagement,Process&TechniqueFourstepsProjectEvaluationMatrixEvaluationCriteriaExamples62ProjectPortfolioManagement,Step1:DefinethePortfolioFirst,establishtheoverallportfoliomission.Thismissionstatementwillbeusedtoinitiallydeterminewhatprojectsareinoroutoftheportfolio.Themissionstatementcanbesimple,like:

TheIntranetPortfoliocoversallprojectstobedeployedonthecorporateintranet.63Step1:DefinethePortfolioFiStep2:GathertheProjectsNow,gatheralltheprojectstogetherthatyouthinkmightbeintheportfolio.Thismaynotbethelistyoualreadyhave.Someprojects,includingduplicateefforts,maybeunderwayinotherpartsoftheorganization.64Step2:GathertheProjectsNowStep3:BeginWeedingOncetheprojectlistisestablished,beginweedingthelistdown.Removeprojectsthat:Areduplicateefforts.Hereisanopportunitytosavemoneybypoolingtwoormoreeffortsintoasingleproject.Donotmeetthemissionarea.Someprojectsmaybeunderyourwingbutdonotfitinthemissionarea.Removethemfromyourportfolioandplacethemelsewhere.65Step3:BeginWeedingOncetheStep4:BeginEvaluatingOncetheportfoliolistisset,beginevaluatingeachprojecttodeterminewhattheoverallportfoliowilllooklike.Usingthefour-quadrantmatrixhere,evaluatetheprojectsagainsttwomajorcriteria:Whatarethepotentialrisksinimplementingthisproject?Whatarethepotentialbenefitsinimplementingthisproject?66Step4:BeginEvaluatingOncetQuadrantIIQuadrantIQuadrantIIIQuadrantIVProjectRiskProjectBenefitsLowHighHighProjectEvaluationMatrix67QuadrantQuadrantQuadrantQuadraUsingtheMatrixThematrixisusedasascoringtooltomapprojectsagainsttheevaluatedlevelofriskandtheevaluatedpotentialbeneficialimpactofaproject.Projectsareevaluatedonbothriskandbenefitfromlowtohighusingaseriesofquestionsandscores.Projectsarethenevaluatedintheworksheetanddecisionsmadeforinclusionandbalancingtheportfo

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