I項(xiàng)目管理英文

ProjectManagementForInformationTechnology(IT)ProfessionalsSettingtheToneFortheProgramLearningObjectivesDescribePMPrinciples&TechniquesUnderstandtheglobalstandard(PMBoK)PracticeconceptsinalearningenvironmentIdentifywhatworksforyouandapplytheseconceptstoyourownprojectsUnderstandITspecificchallengesandbeprepared‘takethemon’AfterattendingthisTrainingSessionyouwillbeableto:MasteryCompetencySkillsKnowledgeInformationExperiencePractice&FeedbackApplicationStudy&TrainingHowdoISucceed?PersonalSuccessIndividually,writedownthreespecificobjectivesforattendingthistrainingsessionSettingthetonefortheProgramSettingUpForSuccessPlanningProjectControlMultipleProjectsDiscussionHandofftoOperationsProgramOutlineLinksofProcessesinPhasesInitiatingPlanningControllingExecutingClosingPMBOKpage28ScopeManagementQualityManagementTimeManagementCostManagementHumanResourceManagementContractor/ProcurementManagementCommunicationsManagementIntegrationManagementRiskManagementManagementMaturityBaselineBuildingaTeamBuildingaProjectBuildingSuccessManagementConsistentlyproducingkeyresultsexpectedbystakeholdersLeadershipEstablishingdirectionAligningpeopleCommunicatingvisionMotivating&inspiringSuccess‘Managing’forSuccessApplicationPractice&improvemanagement&leadershipITChallengesBC&PMTrainingProgram–CourseMixDon’tre-invent,itprobablyexists(EDSMaterials)Team(Techie)–Project–Team(Manager)MaturitycycleWhataresomechallengesyouhaveencounteredinyourworkplaceScopeManagementProcessesScopeManagementInitiationScopePlanningScopeDefinitionScopeChangeControlScopeVerificationProjectCharterProjectManagerScopeStatementScopeMgmtPlanWBSAcceptanceChangesCorrectiveActionsProductDescriptionStrategicPlanTimeManagementProcessesTimeManagementActivityDefinitionActivitySequencingActivityDurationEstimatingScheduleControlScheduleDevelopmentWBSScopeStatementActivityListActivityDiagramActivityEstimatesProjectScheduleScheduleUpdatesQualityManagementProcessesQualityManagementQualityPlanningQualityAssuranceQualityControlQualityImprovementQualityPolicy,ScopeStatementProductDescriptionStandards&RegulationsQMPOperationalDefnQMPOperationalDefnQualityImprovementAcceptanceDecisionsRework,AdjustmentsCostManagementProcessesCostManagementResourcePlanningCostEstimatingCostControlCostBudgetingResourceRequirementsCostEstimatesCostBaselineChanges-estimates,budgetCorrectiveActionsWBS,ScopeStatementResourcePoolOrganizationalPolicyHRManagementProcessesHumanResourceManagementOrganizationalPlanningStaffAcquisitionTeamDevelopmentProjectInterfacesStaffingRequirementsRAMOrganizationChartStaffingManagementPlanProjectStaffAssignedImprovedPerformanceCommMgmtPlanProjectRecordsPerformanceReportsChangeRequestsArchivesAcceptanceRequirementsTechnologyCommunicationsManagementCommunicationsPlanningAdministrativeClosurePerformanceReportingInformationDistributionCommunicationsManagementProcurementManagementProcurementManagementProcurementPlanningSolicitationPlanningSolicitationSourceSelectionContractAdministrationContractClose-OutScopeStatementProductDescriptionProcurementResourcesMarketConditionsOtherPlanningOutputsConstraints&AssumptionsProcurementManagementPlanSOWsProcurementDocsProposalsProposalsEvaluationCriteriaContractPaymentChangesDocumentationAcceptanceIntegrationManagementHistoricalInformationOrganizationalPoliciesProjectPlanWorkResultsProjectPlanProjectPlanUpdatesIntegrationManagementProjectPlanDevelopmentProjectPlanExecutionOverallChangeControlRiskEvents,SourcesSymptomsOpportunitiesThreatsRiskManagementPlanContingenciesCorrectiveActionsProductDescriptionTechnology,HistoryRiskManagementRiskIdentificationRiskResponseControlRiskResponseDevelopmentRiskQuantificationRiskManagementHighLevelConceptIndividually,writedownwhatyoufeelarethethreemostimportantdeliverablesinadevelopmentlifecycle.InteamsdiscussandjustifyyourchoicesKeyDefinitionsOperationsRepetitiveOngoingResetobjectives&continuePerformedbyPeopleConstrainedbylimitedresourcesPlanned,Executed,ControlledProjectsTemporaryBeginning&EndUniqueProductorServiceProjectsTemporaryBeginning&EndUniqueProductorServiceProjectsTemporaryBeginning&EndUniqueProductorServiceProjectTemporaryBeginning&EndUniqueProductorServiceProgram

PROJECTScopeProjectPlanStart EndDefinitions-LookingDownInitiating Planning ExecutingControllingClosingConcept Development ExecutionFinishLifeCycleProcessGroupsPhasesProbabilityofsuccessincreaseswithtimeLifeCycleCharacteristicsRESOURCESTIMECost&staffinglevelslow,high,lowacrosslifecycleTheabilityofstakeholderstoinfluencefinalcharacteristicsdecreaseswithtimealongtheprojectphasesTotal$$SpentLifeCycleCharacteristicsTimeDefinitionsLifeCycleAcollectionofgenerallysequentialprojectphaseswhosenameandnumberaredeterminedbycontrolneedsoftheorganization(s)involvedintheprojectPhaseoneormoretangible,verifiableworkproducts(ineffectit’’sownproject––ownlifecycle)performancemeasurementtoensuredeliverablesmanagementcontrolsequentiallogicdesignedtoproperlydefineproductPhaseDiscussionWhataresomecommonphasesinatechnologydrivenprojectProjectManager’’sRoleIntegrateeverything&everybodyMeetprojectobjectiveswithinconstraintsDecisionmaker-Conflictresolutionchanges,resources,tradeoffCommunicationshubPrimenegotiatorwithstakeholdersProjectManager’’sPersonalityFlexibleInitiativetakerCommunicatorIntegratorDecisionMakerProblemSolverBigpictureabilityMotivator+???ITChallengesAttempttomicro-managetogaincontrolTechnicalprojectsmeanmajorityofprojectnottotallyunderstoodMajorityofmistakesarein‘‘fakingit’TeamBuilding–LeadershipRoleWhataresomechallengesyouhaveencounteredinyourworkplaceAreYouSetUpForSuccess?TechnicalSkillsAdminSkillsHumanSkillsMaintainingtheBalanceTrainedOrBorn?TechnicalSkillsHighLowHumanSkills-Reference:Kerzner,1998.page125TechnicalSkillsHighLowHumanSkillsTeamMemberTeamLeader ManagerDirector Executive-MaintainingtheBalanceEgodrivenNarrowFocusAchievementDrivenAchievementvs.RelationshipStrategicPlanning–NOTVictimImage–OrganizationalViewFearofObsolescenceTechnicalSpecialistsFiveSourcesofAuthorityLegitimateCoerciveRewardExpertReverentKnowingyourPowerBaseYourPowerBaseIndividually,selectthetwopowersthatyoufeelyouareverygoodatusing.LegitimateCoerciveRewardExpertReverentInyourteams,sharetheseselections,anddiscusshowaProjectManagercouldimproveineachpowertypeSoftwareEngineeringInstitute(SEI)CapabilityMaturityModel(CMM)INITIALREPEATABLEDEFINEDMANAGEDOPTIMIZING54321Adhoc,IndividualBasicPM,SimilarStdSWProcessQuantified&MeasuredQuantifiedFeedbackTheIdealModelKickStart(~2months)Phase1–EducationofAllLevelsLeadership––SetdirectionTeam––SetbaselineknowledgePhaseII–AuditQuickAssessment(Bestprojects/Practices)PhaseIII––RecommendationsSetupSEPG(SoftwareEngineeringProcessGroup)SetupasProjectPlanEducate,Measure,DirectITChallengesSEICMM–wherePMFitsintoprocessFirstinitiativefrom‘a(chǎn)bove’MonitoringandControlmechanismPullsconflictingtechnicalfunctionalareasintoaconsistentframeworkWhataresomechallengesyouhaveencounteredinyourworkplaceSoftwareQualityMaturity-ExerciseEvaluateyourorganizationsmaturitylevelineachoftheeightprocessareasofthePMBoK:ScopeTimeQuality CommunicationsHRManagement ProcurementRiskCostWhydowehaveaProcessthedesignisdrivenbycustomerrequirements.Theprimarybenefitindoingthisis,increasedcustomersatisfactionforbothinternalandexternalcustomers.CustomerFocusTeamFocusOneTeamOneGoalDedicatedAccountableGlobalizingFunctionalOwnershipPlanningProcessv.s.ProceduresAProcessisahighlevelconceptthatcanbeappliedacrossorganizations,acrossindustry.IttriestominimizeambiguitybutmustallowflexibilityfordifferentculturesForexample‘identifyrisksthatcanimpactdelivery’AProcedureisthedetailedstepstoadheretotheprocess.Theprocedureisspecifictoanorganization.example‘completetheattachedriskidentificationspreadsheetbyholdingatwomeetingwithallteamleadersofeachfunctionalarea.Thereshouldbeatleast20risksidentifiedandquantified’.Thecompletedspreadsheetmustbestoredontheprojectserver.’’YourTeam’sBaseDoyoufollowadocumentedprocedureDoallthePMsfollowadocumentedprocedure/processDoyourseniormanagerscheckthatyouhavefollowedtheprocedureSettingUpForSuccessProjectManagerSeniorManagementTheCustomersCompanyPolicyDirectionProjectTeamOtherLineManagersProjectDirectivesProjectDirectionReportsReportsProgressReportsProgressReportsCommunicationsLinksN(N-1)/231022118(18-1)/2306/2=153StakeholderAnalysisAsaTeam––Identify30StakeholdergroupsTheyimpacttheprojectTheyareimpactedbytheprojectYourPowerBaseDefinedWithyourstakeholderlist,identifythetypesofpoweryouholdoverthisperson/groupCostReductionAnInterdependentApproachInternalProjectsCustomerProjectsMarketingOPERATIONSMeetingyourOrganizationsVisionProjectSelectionCriteriaProjectSelectionCriteriaaredictatedbythebusinessandtechnicalobjectivesoftheorganizationItensuresthatandmoneyinvestedyieldsthehighest‘payback’fortheorganizationThecriteriaallowthemanagementstafftoknowtheviabilityofaproposedprojectpriortoextensiveplanningItisalsousedasanongoingmeasurementofthecontinuedviabilityofaprojectonceitstartsAsorganizationalobjectives,soshouldtheselectioncriteria#Projects/CriteriaRiskHigh(5),Medium(3)Low(1)PayBackPeriodBalanceCostvssavingsequationCashflowtimingWhatQfordeliveringNPVNPV/investmentratioResourceavailability12345678ProjectSelectionCriteria(Example)YES(1),Probable(3),No(5)Thesecolumnscouldbe‘weighted’DefinitionsarerequiredITChallengesDidcommunicationsplanasan‘‘exercise’AbilitytopositionprojectcorrectlyKeepingprojectteamfocusedonorganizationalobjectivesWhataresomechallengesyouhaveencounteredinyourworkplaceRiskManagementUncertainty+ConstraintProbabilityUnpredictabilityContingency(planningforfailure)ControlBasedonFactsCommitmentPlanningforSuccessRiskAreas(Example)TechnologyIsthisatechnologyweknowwellandhaveexperiencewith?MaturityIsthetechnologymature,isitconsistentwithcompanydirection?ComponentsAreweintroducingcomponentsthatareunique,newsuppliers?ComplexityIstheprojecteasytounderstand?RequirementsAretheystable-arethereotherprojectsthatcouldimpact/derail?RiskAreas(Example)QualityIstherepotentialtodecreasethequalitymetricsofourproduct?FunctionalAreaAreManufacturing,CustomerService,purchasingconsistent?TeamCommitmentsArethereteamsthatmayprioritizeusofftheirschedules?TeamSkillsDowedependonasmallteam?i.e.HeroBobquits-stoppedcold.ExecutiveSupportDowehavethevisibilityrequiredtostayalive?ContingencyPlanDiscussionWhataresomethingsyoucan‘‘pad’toensurethatwhenthingsgowrong,youare‘‘covered’’?PMSuccessFactorsScopeCreepAconstraintisabusinessdrivendefinitionthatlimitsthePM’sabilitytotradeoffCostTimePerformanceProductWithinGoodCustomerRelationsNegotiatingRealismAsaTeamForeachconstraintbelow,define3thingsyoucandoasaProjectManagertoovercometheconstraintTime––youmustdeliverby30SeptemberCost––youcannotspendmorethanXXXonyourprojectQuality––Itmustpas100%ofthetestcasesResources–youneed15people,thereareonly10ProductIntroductionComponentsRemembertheConceptsDevelopmentLifeCycleThatFitsBestPracticesLearnfromExperiencePIPTheStandardSetsaBaselineConsistencyProjectInputConstraintsLimitationRequirementsADevelopmentLifeCycle––Why?Customerrequirementsarebeingmet,Commercialrequirementsarebeingmet,Productandmarketarestillviableinthemarketplace,Productdevelopmentisonschedule,Highstandardsofproductqualityandperformancearebeingmet.Toprovideperiodicchecksthat:HighLevelObjective-DoWeMoveForward?TheLifeCycleProcess-ElementsObjectivesActivitiesDictateDeliverablesProduceMeasureHardwareDevelopment(Example)ExperimentalCycle(s)VerywelldefineddeliverablestoprovetheobjectivewasmetActivitiesareundertakentoproducethedeliverablestoprovetheobjectivewasmetPrototypeCycle(s)PreProductionCycle(s)ProductionCycle(s)PhaseInHardwareInchPebbles-PerCycleDR-DesignReviewDI-DesignInspectionFA-FunctionalAgreementCPA-ComponentPlacementAgreement(LAYOUT)PA-PhysicalAgreement(ORDER&BUILD)Verify-VerificationITChallengesNotaHardwareType––providedvisabilityMilestonesmustbedigital–tothePMIntegraltooverallprojectplan,notanadditionWhataresomechallengesyouhaveencounteredinyourworkplaceInteractionwiththeTeamInyourTeamsDiscusswaysinwhichProjectManagerscanstayawareoftheinch-pebbleswithintheirproject(withoutmicro-management)SoftwareEvaluationFactorsPerformanceQualityVersatilityEaseofLearningEaseofUseClassificationLevelI––singleprojectplanningLevelII––singleprojectmanagementLevelIII–MultipleProjectsWhyComputerizePerform‘‘WhatIfs’withinstantresultsConsistencyinmanagementreportingbytheteamPresentsacommonprojectplan,projectvisionAllowsinstantcommunicationsofdataShowscriticalpath,slack,dependencies……InstantswitchingbetweengraphtypesProvideseasyvisualtosophisticateddataDemonstratesmeasurableprogressCommonChallengesManagementmaynotliketheoutputLackofuseinfrontendplanningLackofday-to-dayuseNocommitmenttotrainingLackoftechnicalsupportGarbageIn–GarbageOutLackofinsightintoaccumulatedchanges‘Bosses’areusedtooldsystemLackofintegrationintocompanysystemsViewedasreplacementforface-to-facecommunicationsNotrainingintheconceptsbeingsupportedSoftware-ASnapshotScopeDefinition-WBSActivity/MilestoneDefinition,EstimationBaselineprojectplanResourceCosts-BudgetingResourceAllocation&LevelingCriticalPathDetermination/PERTDecisionSupport-DiagramsSlackAnalysis‘Actuals’’dataentryVarianceAnalysisDefault/AdhocreportsUsingfilterstosteamlinereportingChangecontrolIntegrationwithothersoftwareITChallengesEDS‘‘superdocument’––lostcontrolKISS––RememberthecontractortypesFrameworkforcommunicationsplanWhataresomechallengesyouhaveencounteredinyourworkplaceSoftwareDiscussionWhatothersoftwarepackagesareusedbyaProjectManagerWhyProjectManagement?Management + Functional = OperationalGaps Gaps IslandsMaketheMostEffectiveuseofResourcesAchieveProjectObjectivesAddresseverychangingfactorsWithinprojectcharacteristicsApplyProjectManagementProjectbasedorganizationTwocategoriesrevenuederivedfromothersmanagementbyprojectsSupportsystemsprojectbasedtraining,financialFunctionalorganizationoneclearsuperiorforanemployeegroupedbyspecialtyprojectstaffcomesfromacrossfunctionsOrganizationalStructuresMatrixorganizationBlendofProjectized/FunctionalorganizationsWeakmatricesfunctional,PMiscoordinator,expeditorStrongmatricesprojectizedwithfunctionalsupportOrganizationalStructuresDescribeYourOrganizationPureFunctionalPureProjectizedProjectInfluenceinDecisionMakingFunctionalInfluenceinDecisionMakingTheBalanceofMatricesWeakMatrixStrongMatrixProblemsinaNon-Project-DrivenOrganizationsProjectsmaybefewandfarbetweenExecutivesdonotdelegateeffectivelyVerticalapprovalsaretimeconsumingFunctionalareas‘‘hold’’informationLimitedacceptanceofPMProcessDependenceonoutsidePMexpertiseInteractionwithFunctionalUnitsInyourTeamsIdentify-whataresomecommonreasonsforprojectmanagersandfunctionalmanagerstodisagreeTimeinPlanningisneverwastedTheProjectPlanDevelopawrittenstatementasthebasisforfutureprojectdecisions––ensurescompleteprojectisknownAgreementbetweentheprojectteamandtheprojectcustomerWhatismissingWhatistheeffect/impactDynamicEliminatesconflict–commonvisionStandardcommunicationstoolEnsuresobjectivesareunderstoodProvidesbasisforinformationgapsProvidesfirstcutatrisk/issuesmanagementSetsscheduleasbaselineTheProjectPlanFrameworkTotalProjectPlanningSummaryofprojectconstraints/conditionsScope/ObjectivesofaprojectOBSRAM––ProjectManagerFunctionalsupportRAM––OtherorganizationsManagementconductProjectscheduleEstimatesResourcemetricsSupportactivitiesApprovalsystemProjectManagementPlanHighLevelPlan-MilestonesProjectManagementProcessReviewDeliverablesVO/PreProPlanProgramReviewsApprovalsProductReleaseAuthorityStartwithablankpieceofpaper––butstart…..ITChallengesFocuswasontheplan’s––noplanningLimitationoftechnicalknowledgemeanthadtousetheteamBasisMonitoringandControl-BaselineWhataresomechallengesyouhaveencounteredinyourworkplaceDeliverableorientedOrganizesanddefinestotalscopeofprojectLevelsrepresentincreaseddetailMaybeproducts/servicesRelatescomponentstoeachother/projectWorknotinWBSisoutsidescopeofprojectUsedtoconfirmacommonunderstandingHelpsingettingcommitmentofprojectpersonnelWorkBreakdownStructure(WBS)LowestLeveliscalledaWorkPackageMaybedividedintoActivitiesTheWBSisthebasisfor……ResponsibilityAssignmentMatrixBudget&CostEstimatingPlanningTotalProgramBreakdownOrganizationalStructure(OBS)CoordinationofObjectivesNetworkSchedulingContractualStructuringRiskAnalysisProjectPerformanceMeasuresBenefitsofWBSPreventsmissingdeliverablesBasisforprojectteamcommitmentEstablishesframeworkforprojectplandevelopmentEnsuresdeliverablesarevisibleHelpsininitialriskanalysisPROGRAMWorkPackageSub-ProjectPROJECTActivityDefinitionActivitydefinitionisusedtoidentifyanddocumentthespecificactivitiesthatmustbeperformedinordertoproducethedeliverablesandsub-deliverablesidentifiedintheWBSHowdowedothat?ActivityConsumestime(prepare,build,test)MustbemeasurableSingleaccountabilityMustbeabletobeperceivedStopsDecompositionoftheWBSWhataresomecommonRulesofThumbforBottomLevelActivities?SpecifiedaccomplishmentPointintimeDoesnotconsumetimeorresourcesExpressesastate(…tested)CommunicationsTooltoshowdigitalprogressAlsocalledMilestonesEventActivityExerciseInyourteams,makealistoftenactivitiescommontoallofyourprojects.Foreachactivity––describeaneventthattellsyouthattheactivityhascompletedsuccessfully.Foreachevent––howcanyouasaprojectmanagerensurethatyouknowthattheeventhashappened.Forinstance––ExecuteTestCase(activity)TestCaseComplete(event)SubmitTestCaseReporttoProjectManagerbyemailActivitySequencingisperformedtoidentifyanddocumentinteractivitydependenciesActivitySequencingTypesofDependenciesMandatory/HardRelationshipcannotbealteredDiscretionary/SoftPersonalpreferenceApproach,bestpracticeAlsocalledsoftorpreferreddependencyExternalDeliveries/suppliestoprojectUsuallyalsoaharddependencyTreatedasaconstraintDependencyExerciseInTeams––IdentifyFiveharddependenciesFivesoftdependenciesandFiveexternaldependenciescommontoyourorganizationTypesofDependenciesFS––FinishtoStartSF––StarttoFinishFF––FinishtoFinishSS––StarttoStartDiagrammingMethodsDefineProductBuildProductDevelopProjectPlan(FS)(FS)PrecedenceDiagrammingMethod(PDM)AlsocalledActivityonNode(AON)Arrowscanshowlag/leadtimeDefineProductBuildProductDevelopProjectPlanArrowDiagrammingMethod(ADM)AlsocalledActivityonArrow(AOA)ConstraintsshownasdummyactivitiesDiagrammingMethodsDiagrammingMethodsFlowChartsITChallengesAskingstupidquestionsincreasesknowledgeKISS––Usedallcharts–lostcontrolRegularcharts–nomoreinterruptionsManagementReportingWhataresomechallengesyouhaveencounteredinyourworkplaceFF/FS/…->LeadandLagBluecannotfinishuntilRedFinishesBluecanstartanytimeRedmustfinishearlierthanblueFF2w1wFS–1wBluecanfinishanytimeBluecannotstartuntil(-1w)RedFinishingRedmayfinishearlier/laterthatBlueSS+1wBluecanfinishanytimeBluecannotstartuntil(+1w)RedStartingRedmayfinishearlier/laterthatBlueSF-1wBluecanfinishanytimeBluecanstartanytimeRedcannotfinishuntilBluehasstartedforaweekDiagrammingNotesObjectiveofthediagramistopassalonginformationontheproject-choiceofdiagramtypeshouldbedrivenbythisfactMilestonescanbeshownonPDMasactivitieswithzerodurationADMyoumustidentifyallactivitiesandallmilestones,PDMallowsyoutochoosewhatmilestonesyouwantADM––youcanadd‘dummy’’activities(lineswithnoduration)toforcedependencyDiagrammingrulesmustbeusedtoensurereadabilityIntegrateStartSelectSoftwareTestSoftwarePurchaseSoftwareSelectHardwarePurchaseHardwareDevelopingThePath(s)EndWhatDiagramsCanTellYouSinks?OrphanedActivitiesBurstsDiagrammingExerciseDrawthenetworkandidentifythecriticalpathusingtheprecedencediagram.ACTIVITYPRECEDINGACTIVITYTIME(WEEKS)ABCDEFGHI---ABBCD,EF,G,H786668473ActivityDurationEstimatingActivityDurationEstimatingdeterminesthenumberofworkperiodswhichwillbeneededtocompleteindividualactivitiesActivityDurationEstimatingEstimatingguidelinesEvaluateeachindependentlyAssume‘normal’leveloflaborAssume‘normal’workweekDisregardpredetermineddatesonfirstcutUseconsistenttimeunitsUsepastactualdataLevelofeffortactivitiesDuration*ResourceLoading=EffortEstimateAccuraciesDefinitive(Detailed)EstimateFromWelldefinedengineeringdataNormallyBottomupAccuracyof+/-5%(Rough)OrderofMagnitudeNodetailedengineeringdataAccuracyof+/-35%Approximate(TopDown)EstimateAnalogousEstimatesUsesPreviousprojectdataAccuracyof+/-15%EstimatingTools&TechniquesAnalogousEstimationTopdownestimatingActualcostofaprevious,similarprojectLeastcostlymethodScaleableforprojectsizeProductIntegrityPCBBuildStandardHWParametricModelingCharacteristicsinamathematicalmodelExamples-costpersq.foot,LOC,costperhourCanbeweighteddependingonparametersNeedsaccuratehistoricalinformationParametersmustbemeasurableMustbescalableDocumentationLinesofCodeAnimationBottomUpEstimationUsesWBSasabasisforcollectionBestapproach–fromactualdevelopersDataintensive-accurateConsistencyachallengeNewProductNewTeamUncertaintyHighEstimatingTools&TechniquesMSProjectComputerizedToolsAssistwithcostestimatingandcostingalternativesCommonEstimationChallengesAssumingfollow-onworkMisinterpretationoftheSOWImproperlydefinedScope/WBSOptimisticschedulesAssumingskillslevelsNoriskanalysisupfrontNoaccountingforcostadjustments/inflationWrong/InconsistentestimationguidelinesITChallengesRedefinedrolefromtechnicaltopoliticalTestedtrustinmyteamDefinesDelegation&AuthorityWhataresomechallengesyouhaveencounteredinyourworkplaceEstimationExerciseInyourteams,discussandwritedownsomeestimatingguidelinesthatareusedinyourorganization.Dan’sCommonEstimatingGuidelines(Size)-estimatesshallnotbelargerthan5days(who)–estimatesshallbebythefunctionalareaorindividualactuallydoingtheactivityIwantdurationandeffortestimatesforeachactivityBothestimatesarein6hourdays(6work–2admin)ItellthemifIwantoptimisticestimates(morerisk),mostlikely(TM)orworstcase(TP)(norisk)(thismaychangeforeachfunctionalarea)EstimatesshallcontainnoaddedcontingencyAnyrisksneedtobeidentifiedwiththeestimateCriticalPathMethod(CPM)Usedatprojectlevel(NormalDistribution)RequiresbreakprojectintoactivitiesdefinelogicalsequenceofactivitiesaddestimatesFindseriesthatdefineMinimumduration(earlyfinish)Longestpath(latefinish)CalculatesFLOATfindsleastschedulingflexibilityOriginallyaspecificmethodbutnowisappliedtoallnetworkmethodsSameMeanLowConfidenceLargeSD68%confidence(80-120hrs)99%confidence(40-160hrs)HighConfidenceLowSD99%confidence(80-120hrs)80100120NormalDistributionSearchoninternetresultedin1,490,000placeswith‘NormalDistribution’4080100120160Mean+/-3SDxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxIntegrate1weekStart0weeksSelectSoftware1weekTestSoftware2weeksPurchaseSoftware1weekSelectHardware1weekPurchaseHardware1weekEnd0weeksLongestPathinNetworkDeterminesMinimumProjectDurationCriticalPathMethod(CPM)CriticalPathExerciseDrawthenetworkandidentifythecriticalpathusingtheprecedencediagram.ACTIVITYPRECEDINGACTIVITYTIME(WEEKS)ABCDEFGHI--BA,BBDCC,EF,G,H468755784UsedmostlyinR&Dprograms(needstatisticalestimation)-AppliestoallnetworksPERTCalculationsUsesaBetaprobabilitydistributionforactivitiesUsesanormaldistributionforprojectlengthBetadistributionTE=TO+4xTM+TP6AccountsforuncertaintiesTimeExpected(TE) TimeOptimistic(TO)TimeMostLikely(TM) TimePessimistic(TP)StandarddeviationSD=TP-TO63,4,54,8,104,5,8SD=0.33SD=1.00SD=0.67SD(tot)=(0.33)+(1.00)+(0.67)222=1.2568%within1SD95%within2SD99%within3SDChanceofCompletionDeterminingConfidence3,4,54,5,104,5,81,2,5TEv.sTMTM45.675.332.67TECriticalPath=15CriticalPath=14MostLikely(CPM)TMWeighted(PERT)TEOptimistic

TOPessimistic

TPPROBABILITYOFOCCURRENCEDurationCPMv.s.PertITChallengesR&DforcedPERTUse.LimitedTechnicalKnowledgeprovided‘excuse’’Neededtolearntowith‘uncertainty’DecisionSupportonalternatemethods–whatisbestforyourorganizationWhataresomechallengesyouhaveencounteredinyourworkplaceA3DaysEndStartD4DaysC3DaysB4DaysE4DaysF5DaysCriticalPathDiscussionWhatactivitiesareonthecriticalpath?Whatisthefloatforeachactivity?MostestimateshaveaLateFinishandEarlyFinishSlack=LateFinish-EarlyFinishifSlack>0,timeisavailableifSlack=0onCriticalPathifSlack<0thescheduleisnotachievableCalculatingSlackHowCanThisBe??CalculatingSlack-ExampleA2DaysEndStartD4DaysC3DaysB6DaysE4DaysF5DaysA2DaysEarlyStartEarlyFinishLateFinishLateStartInyourTeamsDrawtheProjectNetworkUsePERTestimatesCalculatetheearliest/latestartandfinishtimesforeachactivityIdentifythecriticalpathABCDEFGH---AAB,ECD,F,G4752634359748577ACTIVITYPRECEDINGACTIVITYOPTIMISTICMOSTLIKELYPESSIMISTIC6119121271311Time(Weeks)ExerciseIntheMiddleTheKeyto‘‘good’estimatesiseffectiveworkingrelationshipwithFunct