國際經(jīng)濟學II課件2-06

InternationalEconomicIILecture06GovernmentPoliciestowardtheForeignExchangeMarket（政府的外匯市場政策）ObjectivesThefirsthalfofthischapterexaminestypesofgovernmentpoliciestowardtheforeignexchangemarketandprovidesanalysisofgovernmentinterventionandexchangecontrols.(PartI)Thesecondhalfexaminestheactualpoliciesthatgovernmentshaveadoptedduringthepast130years.(PartII)PartIConceptsandAnalysisoftheForeignExchangePolicies對外匯政策的理論分析Whywillthegovernmentinterveneintheforeignexchangemarket?Toreducevariabilityinexchangerates.Tokeepitscurrency’svaluehighorlow.Toreducedomesticinflation.Todefendnationalhonororencouragenationalpricebymaintainingasteadyexchangerateorastrongcurrencyinternationally.Whywillthegovernmentinterveneintheforeignexchangemarket?FrameworkofGovernment’sFXPoliciesGovernment’sFXPoliciesPoliciesthatpermitorrestrictaccesstotheforeignexchangemarket(Quantity)PoliciestowardstheExchangeRateitself(Price)FixedExchangeRateFloatingExchangeRateCleanFloatDirtyFloat(ManagedFloat)

PeggedExchangeRateAdjustablePegCrawlingPegNoRestrictionExchangeControl1.FloatingExchangeRateCleanFloat:Thegovernmentpermitsprivatemarketdemandandsupplytosettheexchangeratewithnodirectinvolvementbygovernmentofficials

自由浮動匯率（清潔浮動匯率）――市場的供給和需求完全是私人（非官方）活動決定，浮動匯率將隨著私人市場的供給與需求變化而變化，這是一種具有完全靈活性的極端情況1.FloatingExchangeRateManagedFloat/DirtyFloat:Themonetaryauthoritiesbuyorsellforeigncurrency(inexchangefordomesticcurrency)toaltertheconfigurationofsupplyanddemand,andthusinfluencetheexchangerate.

管理浮動匯率（骯臟浮動匯率）貨幣當局進入外匯市場買入和賣出外匯（或與本幣進行交換），從而影響均衡匯率水平。1.FloatingExchangeRateThinkingaboutthefollowingQuestions:Tellmethepossiblereasonsofsupportingoropposingthefloatingexchangeratesystem?Doimportrestrictionsleadtorisingtotalemploymentinonecountry?PossibleReasonsofSupportingorOpposingFloatingExchangeRateTheCaseforFloatingExchangeRate

--MonetaryPolicyAutonomy

--Symmetry

--ExchangeRateasAutomaticStabilization

PossibleReasonsofSupportingorOpposingFloatingExchangeRateTheCaseagainstFloatingExchangeRate（AdhocSystem)

--Discipline(“InflationBias”)

--DestabilizingSpeculationandMoneyMarketDisturbances

--InjurytoInternationalTradeandInvestment

--UncoordinatedEconomicPolicies

--TheillusionofGreaterAutonomy

Doimportrestrictionsleadtorisingtotalemploymentinonecountry?Aslongasthiscountrymaintainsafloatingexchangerate,theimplementationofimportrestrictionstohelponeindustrywillgraduallyshiftjobsfromotherindustriesintheeconomytotheprotectedindustry,withnosignificantimpactonaggregateemployment.2.FixedExchangeRate2.1WhattoFixto?2.2WhentoChangetheFixedRate?2.3HowtoDefendtheFixedValue?2.1WhattoFixto?Gold(acenturyago)TheU.S.Dollar/OneSingleCurrency（SincetheendofWorldWarII）TheAverageValueofaNumberofOtherCurrencies

GoldDisadvantagesofGold--LimitedOutput--UnbalancedAllocation--FluctuatingPrice--ExtraCostsAdvantagesofGold--Idealhedgingmeasure--”War-chest”MotiveTheU.S.Dollar/OneSingleCurrencyTheU.S.Dollar--TheBrettonWoodsEra(1944-1971)Peggingtoasinglecurrencyisgenerallydonebydevelopingnationswhosetradeandfinancialrelationshipsaremainlywithasingleindustrialcountrypartner.TheAverageValueofaNumberofOtherCurrenciesWhywouldacountrychoosetofixtoa“basket”ofothercurrencies?Whatbasketofcurrenciesmightthecountryfixto?--SpecialDrawlingRights(SDR)--AcountrycancreateitsownbasketSpecialDrawlingRights(SDR)SDR--abasketofthefourmajorcurrenciesintheworldWitheffectfromJan1,2008,theIMFhasdeterminedthatfourcurrenciesintheSDRvaluationbasketwillbeassignedthefollowingWeightsbasedontheirrolesininternationalTradeandInvestment:U.S.dollar(44%),euro(34%),Japaneseyen(11%),PoundSterling(11%)SDRandInternationalSettlement2.FixedExchangeRate2.1WhattoFixto?2.2WhentoChangetheFixedRate?2.3HowtoDefendtheFixedValue?2.2WhentoChangetheFixedRate？PeggedExchangeRate(Never,notCredit)AdjustablePeg(Seldom)CrawlingPeg(Often)Whatfactorscaninfluencetheissueofwhentochangethepeggedrate?PeggedExchangeRate(Never)

釘住匯率

Neverisapolarcase,butitprobablyisnotcompletelycredible(andweoftenthenspeakofapeggedexchangerateinsteadofafixedexchangerate)AdjustablePeg(Seldom)

可調(diào)整的固定匯率（可調(diào)整的釘住匯率）

Inthefactofasubstantialor“fundamental”disequilibriuminthecountry’sinternationalposition,thegovernmentmaychangethepegged-ratevalue,thisapproachiscalledanadjustablepegTheBrettonWoodsSystem(1944-1971)CrawlingPeg(Often)

蠕動釘住匯率下（爬行釘住匯率）

Withacrawlingpeg,thepegvalueischangedoften(forinstance,monthly)accordingtoasetofindicatorsoraccordingtothejudgmentofthegovernmentmonetaryauthority.

在蠕動釘住匯率下（爬行釘住匯率），釘住匯率值常常（例如每個月）根據(jù)一組數(shù)據(jù)或政府貨幣當局的意圖進行調(diào)整。Whatfactorscaninfluencetheissueofwhentochangethepeggedrate?Thechoiceofthewidthoftheallowablebandiscloselyrelatedtotheissueofwhentochangethepeggedrate.2.FixedExchangeRate2.1WhattoFixto?2.2WhentoChangetheFixedRate?2.3HowtoDefendtheFixedValue?2.3HowtodefendtheFixedValue?OfficialInterventionExchangeControlAlterdomesticinterestratesAdjustthecountry’swholemacroeconomicpositionSwitchtoafloatingexchangerate2.3.1OfficialInterventiona.DefenseagainstDepreciationb.DefenseagainstAppreciationc.TemporaryDisequilibriumd.DisequilibriumThatisNotTemporarya.DefenseagainstDepreciationMechanism:Ifthecountry'scurrencyisexperiencingpressuretowarddepreciation,thecountry'smonetaryauthoritycandefendthefixedratebyenteringtheforeignexchangemarkettobuydomesticcurrencyandsellforeigncurrency.Figure6.1InterventiontoDefendaFixedRate:

PreventingDepreciationoftheCountry’sCurrencya.DefenseagainstDepreciationEffects:Throughintervention,themonetaryauthorityisfinancingthedeficitinitsofficialsettlementbalance.Wheredoesthecountry’smonetaryauthoritygetthedollarstosellintotheFXmarket?Whatistheimplicationofbuyingdomesticcurrencyfromtheforeignexchangemarket?Wheredoesthecountry’smonetaryauthoritygetthedollarstosellintotheFXmarket?OfficialInternationalReserveAssets

--ForeignExchangeAssets--ReservePositionwiththeIMF--SpecialDrawlingRights

--GoldBorrowstheDollars

--Official(SwapLines)--Private(Secret)ReserveCurrency(DeficitswithoutTears)

國際儲備：各國中央政府為了彌補國際收支逆差和保持匯率穩(wěn)定而持有的國際間可以接受的一切資產(chǎn)外匯資產(chǎn)：一國政府所持有的可以自由兌換的外幣以及短期金融資產(chǎn)儲備頭寸（普通提款權）：國際貨幣基金組織的會員國按規(guī)定從基金組織提取一定數(shù)額款項的權利，是IMF中最基本的一項貸款。SDR實際上是一種允許各國借入美元的信貸額度，但SDR被當作儲備是因為一國可以自動從信貸額度內(nèi)提取貸款。Whatistheimplicationofbuyingdomesticcurrencyfromtheforeignexchangemarket?Bybuyingdomesticcurrency,themonetaryauthorityisremovingdomesticmoneyfromtheeconomy,whichtendstolowerthedomesticmoneysupplyunlesstheauthorityseparatelytakesactionofsterilizationtorestorethedomesticmoneybackintotheeconomy.2.3.1OfficialInterventiona.DefenseagainstDepreciationb.DefenseagainstAppreciationc.TemporaryDisequilibriumd.DisequilibriumThatisNotTemporaryb.DefenseagainstAppreciationMechanism:BuyingtheU.S.dollarsandSellingDomesticCurrenciesFigure6.3InterventiontoDefendaFixedRate:

PreventingAppreciationoftheCountry’sCurrencyb.DefenseagainstAppreciationEffects:ItwillresultinanofficialsettlementsbalancesurplusWhatdoesthecountry’smonetaryauthoritydowiththedollarsthatitobtainsfromtheFXmarket?Itaddsthesedollarstoitsofficialinternationalreserveholdings(or,ifappropriate,repayspriorofficialborrowingsofdollars)b.DefenseagainstAppreciationWhatistheimplicationofsellingdomesticcurrencyintotheFXmarket?Thiswillexpandthedomesticmoneysupplyunlesstheauthorityseparatelytakesanotheractiontoremovetheadditionaldomesticmoneyfromtheeconomy.2.3.1OfficialInterventiona.DefenseagainstDepreciationb.DefenseagainstAppreciationc.TemporaryDisequilibriumd.DisequilibriumThatisNotTemporaryc.TemporaryDisequilibriumKeyIssueofOfficialIntervention:Thelengthoftimeforwhichtheinterventionmustcontinue.FinancingtemporarydeficitsandsurplusesisbetterthanlettingtheexchangeratefloataroundConditionstomeetTemporarydisequilibrium2.3.1OfficialInterventiona.DefenseagainstDepreciationb.DefenseagainstAppreciationc.TemporaryDisequilibriumd.DisequilibriumThatisNotTemporaryd.DisequilibriumThatisNotTemporaryIfthedisequilibriumisongoingorfundamentalratherthantemporary,theninterventionaloneisnotlikelytobeabletosustainthefixedexchangerate.Instead,thegovernmentmustshifttooneoftheotherdefensesordevalue.

Pressuretowarddepreciation(deficitimbalance)Pressuretowardappreciation(surplusimbalance)d.DisequilibriumThatisNotTemporary

PressuretowardAppreciationOngoingDeficitfacingpressuretowarddepreciationofficialinterventiontosellforeigncurrencyofficialreserveswillrunlowlosingabilitytoborrowforeignexchangeshifttooneoftheotherthreedefensesorsurrender(devaluate)Speculatororinvestor’sone-wayspeculativegambleselldomesticcurrencyandbuyforeigncurrencyhasteningthelossofreservesd.DisequilibriumThatisNotTemporary

PressuretowardAppreciation

Mechanism:OngoingSurplusaccumulateslargeinternationalreservesbuyforeigncurrencyPressurestowardappreciationd.DisequilibriumThatisNotTemporary

PressuretowardAppreciationProblemsoflargeinternationalreserves:--Thebasicrateofreturnonthisparticularformofnationalwealthtendstobelow--thevalueofforeignexchangeassetswilldeclineifthecountryeventuallymust“retreat”byrevaluatingitsowncurrency.d.DisequilibriumThatisNotTemporaryFundamentalDisequilibriumcallsforadjustment,notmerelyfinancing.Unfortunately,itisnoteasytojudgewhetheran