流域生態(tài)補(bǔ)償示范項(xiàng)目污染源分析與削減量預(yù)測(cè)

長(zhǎng)江上游云南灑漁河流域生態(tài)補(bǔ)償示范項(xiàng)目——污染源分析與削減量預(yù)測(cè)二○一九年六月污染物源分析及削減量預(yù)測(cè)一、現(xiàn)狀污染源狀況分析（一）、農(nóng)村生活污水農(nóng)村生活污染負(fù)荷計(jì)算，參考云南省污染源普查辦公室提供的資料，農(nóng)村生活污水和生活垃圾產(chǎn)生量與排放量計(jì)算參數(shù)見(jiàn)表1。表1農(nóng)村人均生活污水及生活垃圾產(chǎn)排系數(shù)參數(shù)污水產(chǎn)排量（L/p·d）垃圾產(chǎn)排量（kg/p·d）COD產(chǎn)生量（g/p·d）TN產(chǎn)生量（g/p·d）TP產(chǎn)生量（g/p·d）NH3-N產(chǎn)生量（g/p·d）排放系數(shù)生活污水30--60.60.090.50.57生活垃圾--0.35135.11.7550.7021.0530.35根據(jù)如上排污系數(shù)，項(xiàng)目區(qū)內(nèi)農(nóng)村人口合計(jì)91979人，農(nóng)村生活污水及主要污染物產(chǎn)生量及排放量見(jiàn)表2。表2農(nóng)村生活污水排放量核算結(jié)果表縣區(qū)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)名稱常住人口生活污水產(chǎn)生量（萬(wàn)噸/年）產(chǎn)生量（噸/年）生活污水排放量（萬(wàn)噸/年）排放量（噸/年）CODTNTPNH3-NCODTNTPNH3-N魯?shù)榭h新街鎮(zhèn)1653618.1136.213.620.543.0210.3220.642.060.311.72龍樹(shù)鎮(zhèn)3395937.1974.377.441.126.221.242.394.240.643.53水磨鎮(zhèn)1616617.735.43.540.532.9510.0920.182.020.31.68小計(jì)6666173145.9814.62.1912.1741.6183.218.321.256.93昭陽(yáng)區(qū)樂(lè)居鎮(zhèn)22132.424.850.480.070.41.382.760.270.040.23灑漁鎮(zhèn)22012.414.820.480.070.41.372.750.270.040.23蘇甲鄉(xiāng)1581217.3134.633.460.522.899.8719.741.970.31.65大山包鎮(zhèn)3654480.80.120.672.284.560.460.070.38大寨子鄉(xiāng)8840.971.940.190.030.160.551.110.110.020.09永善縣碼口鎮(zhèn)5540.611.210.120.020.10.350.690.070.010.06小計(jì)2531827.7255.455.530.834.6215.831.613.150.482.64總計(jì)91979100.72201.4320.133.0216.7957.41114.8211.471.739.57（二）、農(nóng)田化肥流失污染現(xiàn)狀參考第一次全國(guó)污染源普查《種植業(yè)產(chǎn)排污系數(shù)手冊(cè)》和《全國(guó)水環(huán)境容量核定技術(shù)指南》，水庫(kù)徑流區(qū)所在區(qū)域農(nóng)田化肥施用量折純流失系數(shù)計(jì)算參數(shù)見(jiàn)表3。 表3農(nóng)田化肥施用量流失系數(shù)參數(shù)流失系數(shù)（千克/畝）TNTPNH3-N流失系數(shù)0.3780.0070.021由項(xiàng)目區(qū)土地利用現(xiàn)狀數(shù)據(jù)可知，項(xiàng)目區(qū)耕地面積總計(jì)為352526畝，根據(jù)表3的流失系數(shù)計(jì)算得徑流區(qū)農(nóng)田化肥流失量見(jiàn)表4。表4項(xiàng)目區(qū)化肥流失量統(tǒng)計(jì)表縣區(qū)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)名稱耕地面積（畝）產(chǎn)生量入河量TN(t/a)TP(t/a)NH3-N(t/a)TN(t/a)TP(t/a)NH3-N(t/a)魯?shù)榭h新街鎮(zhèn)2945311.130.210.625.34240.0840.248龍樹(shù)鎮(zhèn)4694817.750.330.998.520.1320.396水磨鎮(zhèn)9176234.690.641.9316.65120.2560.772小計(jì)16816363.571.183.5430.51360.4721.416昭陽(yáng)區(qū)樂(lè)居鎮(zhèn)242279.160.170.514.39680.0680.204灑漁鎮(zhèn)4098615.490.290.867.43520.1160.344蘇甲鄉(xiāng)246059.30.170.524.4640.0680.208大山包鎮(zhèn)4783518.080.3318.67840.1320.4大寨子鄉(xiāng)155255.870.110.332.81760.0440.132永善縣碼口鎮(zhèn)3118511.790.220.655.65920.0880.26小計(jì)18436369.691.293.8733.45120.5161.548總計(jì)352526133.262.477.4163.96480.9882.964（三）、固體廢棄物排放現(xiàn)狀生活垃圾污染負(fù)荷計(jì)算生活垃圾產(chǎn)生量與排放量計(jì)算參數(shù)見(jiàn)表1。根據(jù)表1排污系數(shù)，漁洞水庫(kù)徑流區(qū)生活垃圾及主要污染物產(chǎn)生量及排放量參見(jiàn)表5。表5項(xiàng)目區(qū)農(nóng)村生活垃圾污染負(fù)荷單位：t

/a縣區(qū)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)名稱常住人口垃圾產(chǎn)生量(t/a）污染物產(chǎn)生量(t/a）垃圾排放量(t/a）生活垃圾排放量量(t/a）CODTNTPNH3-NCODTNTPNH3-N魯?shù)榭h新街鎮(zhèn)165362897.11211.8510.594.246.361013.98974.14753.70651.4842.226龍樹(shù)鎮(zhèn)339595949.62435.0721.758.713.052082.367152.27457.61253.0454.5675水磨鎮(zhèn)161662832.28362.8646.495.960.76991.298127.00116.27152.0860.266小計(jì)66661116791009.7878.8318.920.174087.65353.42327.59056.6157.0595昭陽(yáng)區(qū)樂(lè)居鎮(zhèn)3118546.2769.998.971.150.15191.194524.49653.13950.40250.0525灑漁鎮(zhèn)3783662.7884.9110.881.390.18231.97329.71853.8080.48650.063蘇甲鄉(xiāng)216433791.85485.7962.247.971.021327.148170.026521.7842.78950.357大山包鎮(zhèn)69981226.05157.0820.122.580.33429.117554.9787.0420.9030.1155大寨子鄉(xiāng)2648463.9359.447.620.980.13162.375520.8042.6670.3430.0455永善縣碼口鎮(zhèn)748131.0516.792.150.280.0445.86755.87650.75250.0980.014小計(jì)389386821.93874111.9814.351.852387.68305.939.1935.02250.6475總計(jì)10559918500.91883.78190.8133.2522.026475.33659.32366.783511.63757.707農(nóng)業(yè)固廢排放現(xiàn)狀農(nóng)業(yè)固體廢棄物產(chǎn)生量與排放量計(jì)算參數(shù)見(jiàn)表6。表6農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)固體廢棄物產(chǎn)排系數(shù)參數(shù)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)植物殘?bào)w產(chǎn)生量（kg/畝·a）固體總氮負(fù)荷固體氨氮負(fù)荷固體總磷負(fù)荷產(chǎn)生量系數(shù)10001.00%0.60%0.40%排放量系數(shù)0.050.0250.0250.005根據(jù)上表的產(chǎn)排系數(shù)核算徑流區(qū)內(nèi)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)固廢的產(chǎn)生量和排放量見(jiàn)表7。表7項(xiàng)目區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)固廢的產(chǎn)生量和排放量縣區(qū)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)名稱耕地面積（畝）產(chǎn)生量（t/a）排放量（t/a）植物殘?bào)wTNTPNH3-N植物殘?bào)wTNTPNH3-N魯?shù)榭h新街鎮(zhèn)2945329453294.53176.72117.811472.657.360.882.95龍樹(shù)鎮(zhèn)4694846948469.48281.69187.792347.411.741.414.69水磨鎮(zhèn)9176291762917.62550.57367.054588.122.942.759.18小計(jì)1681631681631681.631008.98672.658408.1542.045.0416.82昭陽(yáng)區(qū)樂(lè)居鎮(zhèn)2422724227242.27145.3696.911211.356.060.732.42灑漁鎮(zhèn)4098640986409.86245.92163.942049.310.251.234.1蘇甲鄉(xiāng)2460524605246.05147.6398.421230.256.150.742.46大山包鎮(zhèn)4783547835478.35287.01191.342391.7511.961.444.78大寨子鄉(xiāng)1552515525155.2593.1562.1776.253.880.471.55永善縣碼口鎮(zhèn)3118531185311.85187.11124.741559.257.80.943.12小計(jì)8981889818898.18538.91359.274490.922.462.78.98總計(jì)2579812579812579.811547.891031.9212899.164.57.7425.8農(nóng)村人畜糞便徑流區(qū)內(nèi)畜禽養(yǎng)殖以散養(yǎng)為主，經(jīng)調(diào)查，能收集到的畜禽糞便的處置以還田為主，但是管理相對(duì)粗放，部分固體廢物和大部分尿液排放于環(huán)境中隨降雨流失，污染排放量約為產(chǎn)生量的5～10%，由于管理粗放，本規(guī)劃按10%的流失率計(jì)。人糞尿按同樣的流失率計(jì)。農(nóng)村畜禽糞便及其主要污染物排放量計(jì)算參數(shù)見(jiàn)表8。（表8數(shù)據(jù)引自環(huán)境保護(hù)總局自然生態(tài)保護(hù)司編.全國(guó)規(guī)?；笄蒺B(yǎng)殖業(yè)污染情況調(diào)查及防治對(duì)策.中國(guó)環(huán)境科學(xué)出版社.北京.2002.77～78）。人糞尿中主要污染物的含量為：COD：27.5kg/a、TP：0.5kg/a、TN：3.5kg/a和NH3-N：0.9kg/a。水庫(kù)徑流區(qū)內(nèi)人畜糞便污染物產(chǎn)生和排放量見(jiàn)表9。表8每頭（只）畜禽每年排泄糞便中污染物含量項(xiàng)目牛（kg/a）豬（kg/a）羊糞（kg/a）家禽糞（kg/a）糞尿糞尿COD226.321.920.75.914.41.165TP8.611.461.360.340.450.115TN31.99.22.342.172.280.275NH3-N12.4812.671.230.840.570.125表9項(xiàng)目區(qū)內(nèi)人畜糞便污染物產(chǎn)生和排放量鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)項(xiàng)目數(shù)量產(chǎn)生量（t/a）排放量（t/a）CODTPTNNH3-NCODTPTNNH3-N新街鎮(zhèn)人口10134278.695.0735.479.1227.8690.5073.5470.912豬20551546.8634.9492.6942.5454.6863.4949.2694.254牛2473613.824.9101.6462.261.382.4910.1646.22羊530623.352.3912.13.022.3350.2391.210.302家禽2126724.782.455.852.662.4780.2450.5850.266小計(jì)1487.4869.75247.75119.54148.7486.97524.77511.954龍樹(shù)鎮(zhèn)人口28804792.1114.4100.8125.9279.2111.4410.0812.592豬27831740.5847.31125.5257.6174.0584.73112.5525.761牛3525874.9135.5144.8888.6587.4913.5514.4888.865羊570025.082.57133.252.5080.2571.30.325家禽1506817.551.734.141.881.7550.1730.4140.188小計(jì)2450.23101.51388.35177.31245.02310.15138.83517.731水磨鎮(zhèn)人口9432259.384.7233.018.4925.9380.4723.3010.849豬26800713.1545.56120.8755.4871.3154.55612.0875.548牛61001514.0261.43250.71153.42151.4026.14325.07115.342羊880038.723.9620.065.023.8720.3962.0060.502家禽4200048.934.8311.555.254.8930.4831.1550.525小計(jì)2574.2120.5436.2227.66257.4212.0543.6222.766樂(lè)居鎮(zhèn)人口29698816.714.85103.9426.7381.671.48510.3942.673豬4200111.767.1418.948.6911.1760.7141.8940.869牛2100521.2221.1586.3152.8252.1222.1158.6315.282羊7303.210.331.660.420.3210.0330.1660.042家禽44745.210.511.230.560.5210.0510.1230.056小計(jì)1458.143.98212.0889.22145.814.39821.2088.922灑漁鎮(zhèn)人口751512066.6537.58263.0367.64206.6653.75826.3036.764豬240063.864.0810.824.976.3860.4081.0820.497牛30074.463.0212.337.557.4460.3021.2330.755羊3601.580.160.820.210.1580.0160.0820.021家禽20002.330.230.550.250.2330.0230.0550.025小計(jì)2208.8845.07287.5580.62220.8884.50728.7558.062蘇甲鄉(xiāng)人口30886849.3715.44108.127.884.9371.54410.812.78豬8000212.8813.636.0816.5621.2881.363.6081.656牛2000496.420.1482.250.349.642.0148.225.03羊1200052.85.427.366.845.280.542.7360.684家禽2000023.32.35.52.52.330.230.550.25小計(jì)1634.7556.88259.24104163.4755.68825.92410.4大山包鎮(zhèn)人口3654100.491.8312.793.2910.0490.1831.2790.329豬4722129.862.3616.534.2512.9860.2361.6530.425牛82222.610.412.880.742.2610.0410.2880.074羊4380120.452.1915.333.9412.0450.2191.5330.394家禽5122140.862.5617.934.6114.0860.2561.7930.461小計(jì)514.279.3565.4616.8351.4270.9356.5461.683大寨子鄉(xiāng)人口88424.310.443.090.82.4310.0440.3090.08豬280677.171.49.822.537.7170.140.9820.253牛133636.740.674.681.23.6740.0670.4680.12羊203055.831.027.111.835.5830.1020.7110.183家禽6326173.973.1622.145.6917.3970.3162.2140.569小計(jì)368.026.6946.8412.0536.8020.6694.6841.205碼口鎮(zhèn)人口55415.240.281.940.51.5240.0280.1940.05豬37810.40.191.320.341.040.0190.1320.034牛2456.740.120.860.220.6740.0120.0860.022羊125034.380.634.381.133.4380.0630.4380.113家禽49413.590.251.730.441.3590.0250.1730.044小計(jì)80.351.4710.232.638.0350.1471.0230.263總計(jì)12776.3455.21953.7829.861277.62845.52195.3782.986（四）、水土流失污染現(xiàn)狀為準(zhǔn)確核算流域因降雨徑流產(chǎn)生的陸地水土流失污染負(fù)荷，云南省環(huán)科院利用GWLF（通用流域污染負(fù)荷模型）進(jìn)行流域水土流失污染負(fù)荷核算，流域由降雨侵蝕導(dǎo)致的COD、TN、TP、NH3-N污染負(fù)荷分別為706.89t/a、116.13t/a、7.52t/a、23.05t/a。全流域不同土地利用的單位面積負(fù)荷詳見(jiàn)表10，污染負(fù)荷排放量見(jiàn)表11。表10流域不同土地利用污染負(fù)荷及單位面積負(fù)荷污染物果園荒草地灌木林地有林地居民地單位面積負(fù)荷（kg/hm2/a）TN1.961.341.261.42.43TP0.090.050.040.060.47COD12.58109.2410.527.31NH3-N0.390.270.250.280.49表11水土流失污染負(fù)荷表單位：t/a縣區(qū)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)名稱CODTNTPNH3-N魯?shù)榭h新街鎮(zhèn)150.5524.711.64.91龍樹(shù)鎮(zhèn)203.5236.122.377.61水磨鎮(zhèn)204.0835.742.267.55小計(jì)558.1596.576.2320.07昭陽(yáng)區(qū)樂(lè)居鎮(zhèn)113.2913.920.981.83灑漁鎮(zhèn)91.10.070.15蘇甲鄉(xiāng)26.454.540.241小計(jì)148.7419.561.292.98總計(jì)706.89116.137.5223.05（五）、徑流區(qū)污染負(fù)荷匯總及其排放特征分析1、徑流區(qū)污染物產(chǎn)生量和排放量匯總2019年漁洞水庫(kù)徑流區(qū)化學(xué)需氧量產(chǎn)生量為15872.48噸，排放量為3049.93噸，總氮產(chǎn)生量6339.54噸，排放量為907.18噸，總磷產(chǎn)生量為2649.92噸，排放量為102.87噸，氨氮產(chǎn)生量為2869.10噸，排放量為176.96噸。表12漁洞水庫(kù)徑流區(qū)各鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)污染物產(chǎn)生量和排放量合計(jì)縣區(qū)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)名稱產(chǎn)生量（噸/年）排放量（噸/年）CODTNTPNH3-NCODTNTPNH3-N魯?shù)榭h新街鎮(zhèn)1886.09647.68257.78380.47394.09112.6214.6624.38龍樹(shù)鎮(zhèn)3163.191062.17405.91603.99643.21196.1424.5139.12水磨鎮(zhèn)3176.541522.38684.68816.44608.68193.2923.2243.37小計(jì)8225.823232.221348.381800.901645.97502.0562.38106.87昭陽(yáng)區(qū)樂(lè)居鎮(zhèn)1648.21492.70192.25189.19287.4961.217.3414.05灑漁鎮(zhèn)2311.07740.74294.11246.44264.3368.777.3813.63蘇甲鄉(xiāng)2194.39673.02220.82208.91386.97121.2914.2216.99大山包鎮(zhèn)744.03616.93302.13212.69172.5070.375.6710.22大寨子鄉(xiāng)645.88244.39102.8682.68273.5459.724.2810.99小計(jì)7543.582767.771112.17939.911384.82381.3638.8965.88永善縣碼口鎮(zhèn)103.08339.54189.37128.2919.1423.781.604.22總計(jì)15872.486339.542649.922869.103049.93907.18102.87176.96各鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)排放污染物貢獻(xiàn)率見(jiàn)下圖：表13各鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)排放物貢獻(xiàn)率（%）縣區(qū)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)名稱CODTNTPNH3-N魯?shù)榭h新街鎮(zhèn)12.92%12.41%14.25%13.78%龍樹(shù)鎮(zhèn)21.09%21.62%23.82%22.11%水磨鎮(zhèn)19.96%21.31%22.57%24.51%昭陽(yáng)區(qū)樂(lè)居鎮(zhèn)9.43%6.75%7.14%7.94%灑漁鎮(zhèn)8.67%7.58%7.18%7.70%蘇甲鄉(xiāng)12.69%13.37%13.82%9.60%大山包鎮(zhèn)5.66%7.76%5.51%5.77%大寨子鄉(xiāng)8.97%6.58%4.16%6.21%永善縣碼口鎮(zhèn)0.63%2.62%1.55%2.38%2、徑流區(qū)污染物入庫(kù)總量（1）農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村面源污染物入河系數(shù)根據(jù)《全國(guó)水環(huán)境容量核定技術(shù)指南》，結(jié)合規(guī)劃水源區(qū)的實(shí)際情況，考慮污染物到達(dá)入河排放口之前的距離(流程)、不同污染物類型TN、TP徑流損失系數(shù)兩類因素計(jì)算農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村面源入河系數(shù)。農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村面源污染入河量計(jì)算方法與參數(shù)取值見(jiàn)表13。表13農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村面源污染入河量參數(shù)取值與計(jì)算方法距離修正系數(shù)污染源入河流程（L）距離CODTNTPL≤1km0.750.80.81＜L≤5km0.650.70.75＜L≤10km0.550.60.610＜L≤15km0.50.50.515＜L≤20km0.450.40.420＜L≤30km0.40.350.3520＜L≤50km0.30.30.3徑流損失修正系數(shù)污染物類型生活污水0.80.650.6生活垃圾0.650.70.6人畜糞便0.70.550.45農(nóng)田固廢0.550.60.5農(nóng)田化肥0.630.60.5入河排污量計(jì)算公式入河量=農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村面源污染產(chǎn)生量×距離修正×徑流損失修正根據(jù)上表，對(duì)徑流區(qū)主要污染物入庫(kù)面源污染源入庫(kù)污染負(fù)荷進(jìn)行核算，核算中，考慮到居民基本沿河而居，耕地的分布也主要集中在徑流區(qū)內(nèi)沿河兩岸，污染物入河流程系數(shù)均取最高值。表14各鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)入河量匯總縣區(qū)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)名稱排放量（t/a）CODTPTNNH3-N魯?shù)榭h新街鎮(zhèn)200.0225.5935.4510.31龍樹(shù)鎮(zhèn)327.5240.0466.8416.80水磨鎮(zhèn)308.6640.3562.9217.59小計(jì)836.19105.99165.2144.71昭陽(yáng)區(qū)樂(lè)居鎮(zhèn)146.0616.8815.095.67灑漁鎮(zhèn)137.6714.4121.015.51蘇甲鄉(xiāng)197.8217.4949.647.12大山包鎮(zhèn)87.009.2527.964.19大寨子鄉(xiāng)135.1020.0410.764.44小計(jì)703.6578.07124.4726.93永善縣碼口鎮(zhèn)9.741.3110.851.70總計(jì)1549.58185.36300.5373.33表15各鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)現(xiàn)狀入河量占比縣區(qū)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)名稱排放量（t/a）CODTPTNNH3-N魯?shù)榭h新街鎮(zhèn)12.91%13.81%11.80%14.07%龍樹(shù)鎮(zhèn)21.14%21.60%22.24%22.91%水磨鎮(zhèn)19.92%21.77%20.94%23.99%昭陽(yáng)區(qū)樂(lè)居鎮(zhèn)9.43%9.11%5.02%7.73%灑漁鎮(zhèn)8.88%7.77%6.99%8.00%蘇甲鄉(xiāng)12.77%9.44%16.52%9.71%大山包鎮(zhèn)5.61%4.99%9.30%5.72%大寨子鄉(xiāng)8.72%10.81%3.58%6.05%永善縣碼口鎮(zhèn)0.63%0.70%3.61%2.32%表16不同污染源對(duì)污染負(fù)荷的貢獻(xiàn)率排放因子污水垃圾化肥流失農(nóng)業(yè)固廢人畜糞便水土流失COD5.10%20.74%0%0%43.29%30.87%TP5.80%3.01%0.53%2.29%46.38%41.99%TN45.24%12.44%21.28%14.08%5.45%1.50%NH3-N7.78%5.04%4.04%19.23%45.26%17.80%徑流區(qū)不同污染源對(duì)污染負(fù)荷的貢獻(xiàn)量不同，從表14-16可知，徑流區(qū)魯?shù)榭h新街鎮(zhèn)、龍樹(shù)鎮(zhèn)、水磨鎮(zhèn)；昭陽(yáng)區(qū)蘇甲鄉(xiāng)是主要的污染來(lái)源，在污染來(lái)源中人畜糞便、水土流失、污水垃圾對(duì)污染負(fù)荷貢獻(xiàn)最大。從表14可知，2019年，化學(xué)需氧量入庫(kù)總量核算為1549.58噸，總氮入庫(kù)量為300.53噸，總磷入庫(kù)量為185.36噸，氨氮入庫(kù)量為73.33噸。二、現(xiàn)狀污染源狀況分析通過(guò)現(xiàn)場(chǎng)調(diào)查及現(xiàn)有主要污染源的分析和核算，項(xiàng)目區(qū)入河污染負(fù)荷特征分析總結(jié)如下：1、水庫(kù)徑流區(qū)的污染來(lái)源以面源為主整個(gè)徑流區(qū)以種植業(yè)為主，農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村面源是徑流區(qū)的主要污染類型。農(nóng)業(yè)面源以種植業(yè)產(chǎn)生的化肥流失、水土流失為主，畜禽養(yǎng)殖在徑流區(qū)較為普遍，成為徑流區(qū)的主要污染來(lái)源，同時(shí)，農(nóng)村生活產(chǎn)生的生活污水和生活垃圾的污染貢獻(xiàn)也不容忽視，特別是現(xiàn)狀農(nóng)村的生活污水和垃圾均未得到妥善的手機(jī)和處理處置。在龍樹(shù)河流域的上游區(qū)域，隨著龍樹(shù)鎮(zhèn)、水磨鎮(zhèn)和新街鎮(zhèn)等集鎮(zhèn)的發(fā)展，集鎮(zhèn)生活污水將成為一個(gè)重要的污染來(lái)源，需進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)徑流區(qū)內(nèi)人口集中的集鎮(zhèn)生活污水的收集和處理。2、人畜糞便、農(nóng)田化肥流失、水土流失和生活垃圾與污水是水庫(kù)徑流區(qū)的主要污染源從不同污染源的貢獻(xiàn)分析，主要來(lái)源為：人畜糞便、農(nóng)田化肥、水土流失、生活污水和生活垃圾。從各個(gè)污染物來(lái)看：COD的主要來(lái)源是人畜糞便、水土流失和生活垃圾；TN的主要來(lái)源是農(nóng)田化肥流失、人畜糞便、水土流失；TP的主要來(lái)源是人畜糞便、水土流失、生活污水和生活垃圾；氨氮的主要來(lái)源是人畜糞便、農(nóng)田固廢和生活垃圾。鑒于主要污染源為面源，污染物入河入庫(kù)將具有明顯的季節(jié)性，在雨季，污染物隨降雨徑流匯入河道，特別是暴雨情況下，污染物集中入河，進(jìn)入水庫(kù)的污染物會(huì)急劇增加。3、龍樹(shù)鎮(zhèn)、水磨鎮(zhèn)和新街鎮(zhèn)對(duì)徑流區(qū)的污染負(fù)荷貢獻(xiàn)最大徑流區(qū)上游的龍樹(shù)鎮(zhèn)、水磨鎮(zhèn)和新街鎮(zhèn)產(chǎn)生的污染負(fù)荷是整個(gè)徑流區(qū)主要污染負(fù)荷的貢獻(xiàn)者，上述三個(gè)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)對(duì)入庫(kù)的總氮的貢獻(xiàn)率達(dá)54.98%，對(duì)總磷的貢獻(xiàn)率達(dá)57.18%。特別是兩岸200m范圍內(nèi)分布的村鎮(zhèn)，其污染物直接入河，對(duì)河流水質(zhì)有直接的影響。同時(shí)，由于龍樹(shù)河是漁洞水庫(kù)上游最主要最大的河流，河流的來(lái)水是水庫(kù)蓄水的重要水源，對(duì)龍樹(shù)河水質(zhì)的保護(hù)就是對(duì)漁洞水庫(kù)水質(zhì)保護(hù)的最大貢獻(xiàn)，因此，專項(xiàng)規(guī)劃中將作為治理的重點(diǎn)區(qū)域。三、水環(huán)境保護(hù)分區(qū)與污染物總量控制（一）、污染控制水環(huán)境功能分區(qū)按照污染物總量控制的目標(biāo)要求，通過(guò)GIS技術(shù)對(duì)漁洞水庫(kù)徑流區(qū)污染控制環(huán)境功能分區(qū)劃分，水庫(kù)取水口核心控制區(qū)（Ⅰ區(qū)）面積為45.57km2，涉及昭陽(yáng)區(qū)蘇甲、樂(lè)居、灑漁3個(gè)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)，5個(gè)行政村；水庫(kù)近岸水土流失污染控制區(qū)（Ⅱ區(qū)）面積為48.27km2，涉及昭陽(yáng)區(qū)2個(gè)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)，3個(gè)行政村；水庫(kù)近岸農(nóng)村生活污染控制區(qū)（Ⅲ區(qū)）面積為73.63km2，涉及昭陽(yáng)區(qū)1個(gè)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)，7個(gè)行政村；入庫(kù)農(nóng)村農(nóng)業(yè)面源污染控制區(qū)（Ⅳ區(qū)）面積為76.06km2，涉及昭陽(yáng)區(qū)、魯?shù)榭h4個(gè)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)，11個(gè)行政村；水庫(kù)水源涵養(yǎng)區(qū)（Ⅴ區(qū)）面積為453.90km2，涉及昭陽(yáng)區(qū)、魯?shù)榭h、永善縣7個(gè)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)，27個(gè)行政村。（二）、水環(huán)境容量計(jì)算（引自昭通漁洞水庫(kù)水資源保護(hù)專項(xiàng)整治規(guī)劃（2015-2020年）云南省環(huán)境科學(xué)研究院）水文與負(fù)荷是密切相關(guān)、不可割裂的整體，兩者是非線性的響應(yīng)關(guān)系，一般來(lái)說(shuō)水量越大負(fù)荷越高。在水環(huán)境容量計(jì)算時(shí)，水文條件是必要條件，河流一般采用90%保證率、枯水期連續(xù)7天最小流量（建成7Q10流量）；水庫(kù)一般采用近10年最低月平均水位相應(yīng)的蓄水量和死庫(kù)容的蓄水量確定設(shè)計(jì)庫(kù)容。這樣的設(shè)計(jì)保障了水環(huán)境容量的安全性。漁洞水庫(kù)流域2010年的水文保證率為95%，屬于特枯年，以2010年作為漁洞水庫(kù)水環(huán)境容量計(jì)算的水文條件，安全性較高；此外，本規(guī)劃對(duì)2010年漁洞水庫(kù)的污染源狀況進(jìn)行了較為詳細(xì)的調(diào)查，觀測(cè)數(shù)據(jù)較為完整，可靠性較高。因此，本規(guī)劃以2010年作為水環(huán)境容量計(jì)算的特征水文負(fù)荷條件，安全性、可靠性均可保障。水質(zhì)目標(biāo)以漁洞水庫(kù)表層每日污染物濃度作為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)解譯，該標(biāo)準(zhǔn)為最嚴(yán)格標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，要求水庫(kù)表層的污染物濃度每天都達(dá)標(biāo)，為100%保證率達(dá)標(biāo)；按照該標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，以2010年水文條件為負(fù)荷計(jì)算條件，則在此解譯方案下漁洞水庫(kù)的TN水環(huán)境容量為214t/a；TP環(huán)境容量為18t/a。漁洞水庫(kù)目前的污染負(fù)荷已經(jīng)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)容量要求。該目標(biāo)要求流域管理部門(mén)嚴(yán)格控制污染物，絕對(duì)不允許污染物負(fù)荷進(jìn)一步增加；同時(shí)，必須實(shí)施流域污染負(fù)荷削減工程與管理措施，大幅度削減污染物負(fù)荷，從而確保漁洞水庫(kù)的敏感水層（表層水）在任何時(shí)候都能滿足Ⅱ類水標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。此情景是對(duì)漁洞水庫(kù)保護(hù)最有利的方案，控制極端營(yíng)養(yǎng)鹽濃度在Ⅱ類水質(zhì)下，大大降低藻類過(guò)多生長(zhǎng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，使水庫(kù)水質(zhì)可持續(xù)的保持良好。針對(duì)如上《昭通市漁洞水庫(kù)水環(huán)境保護(hù)規(guī)劃（2011-2030）》中對(duì)漁洞水庫(kù)不同情景下的水環(huán)境容量計(jì)算結(jié)果，為確保實(shí)現(xiàn)上述的水質(zhì)目標(biāo)，本次規(guī)劃提出采用較為嚴(yán)格的情景一的水環(huán)境容量計(jì)算結(jié)果，即TN水環(huán)境容量為214t/a；TP環(huán)境容量為18t/a。（三）、水污染物總量控制與削減1、現(xiàn)狀污染負(fù)荷入庫(kù)總量根據(jù)本報(bào)告污染負(fù)荷核算章節(jié)，2019年化學(xué)需氧量入庫(kù)總量核算為1594.38噸，總氮入庫(kù)量為290.76噸，總磷入庫(kù)量為31.75噸，氨氮入庫(kù)量為66.19噸（見(jiàn)前表16）。2、預(yù)測(cè)污染負(fù)荷削減量根據(jù)本報(bào)告污染負(fù)荷核算及預(yù)測(cè)章節(jié)，在保持現(xiàn)有發(fā)展情景模式下，2019年，化學(xué)需氧量入庫(kù)總量核算為1549.58噸，總氮入庫(kù)量為300.53噸，總磷入庫(kù)量為185.36噸，氨氮入庫(kù)量為73.33噸。以此污染負(fù)荷預(yù)測(cè)核算結(jié)果來(lái)看，為達(dá)到漁洞水庫(kù)總量控制目標(biāo)的要求，TN和TP在本規(guī)劃期內(nèi)的削減任務(wù)分別為76.76噸，13.75噸。詳見(jiàn)下表17。表17污染負(fù)荷消減量目標(biāo)項(xiàng)目TN（t）TP（t）2019年現(xiàn)狀值300.53185.36總量控制目標(biāo)值21418項(xiàng)目建成的削減目標(biāo)86.53167.36從上表可知，主要污染的入庫(kù)污染負(fù)荷削減目標(biāo)為T(mén)N：86.53t/a，TP：167.36t/a。只有在實(shí)現(xiàn)了上述削減目標(biāo)，才能滿足漁洞水庫(kù)環(huán)境容量控制目標(biāo)的要求。四、治理方案削減量預(yù)測(cè)分析（一）、農(nóng)村環(huán)境綜合整治污染負(fù)荷削減計(jì)算通過(guò)住建部門(mén)的“兩污”工程和人畜糞便處理工程，使三鎮(zhèn)污染龍樹(shù)河的污染源得到系統(tǒng)治理，結(jié)合工程內(nèi)容、規(guī)模及工藝，參照其他九湖流域污染治理設(shè)施處理效果，取表18中的參數(shù)計(jì)算污染負(fù)荷削減量。表18不同類型污染源的處理效果處理類型收集率去除率（%）%CODTNTPNH3-N生活污水8575405565生活垃圾8595955995人畜糞便8585408585本次通過(guò)污水處理工程、垃圾收運(yùn)處理工程、集糞池處理工程，理論削減主要污染物COD、TN、TP、NH3-N量見(jiàn)表19、表20、表21。表19污水削減量及削減率計(jì)算表縣區(qū)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)名稱入河量（噸/年）收集率（%）削減排放量（t/a）削減率（%）CODTNTPNH3-NCODTNTPNH3-NCODTNTPNH3-N魯?shù)榭h新街鎮(zhèn)12.3821.291.680.8946.75%4.343.980.430.2735.05%18.70%25.52%30.19%龍樹(shù)鎮(zhèn)25.4343.723.461.8491.40%17.4415.981.741.0968.57%36.55%50.35%59.38%水磨鎮(zhèn)12.1120.821.650.8739.15%3.563.260.350.2229.40%15.66%21.26%25.18%小計(jì)49.9385.836.793.6025.3423.222.521.58昭陽(yáng)區(qū)樂(lè)居鎮(zhèn)2.334.010.320.1775.66%1.321.210.130.0856.56%30.14%41.04%48.08%灑漁鎮(zhèn)2.834.870.380.2057.05%1.211.110.120.0842.73%22.78%31.25%39.45%蘇甲鄉(xiāng)16.2127.872.201.1712.66%1.541.410.150.19.50%5.06%6.81%8.55%大山包鎮(zhèn)5.249.010.720.380.00%00000.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%大寨子鄉(xiāng)1.993.410.270.140.00%00000.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%永善縣馬口鎮(zhèn)0.560.960.080.040.00%00000.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%小計(jì)29.1750.143.962.104.073.730.40.26總計(jì)79.09135.9610.755.7029.4126.952.921.84表20垃圾削減量及削減率計(jì)算表縣區(qū)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)名稱入河量收集率（%）削減排放量（t/a）削減率（%）CODTNTPNH3-NCODTNTPNH3-NCODTNTPNH3-N魯?shù)榭h新街鎮(zhèn)36.152.080.711.2591.51%31.424131.804450.619251.0836986.93%86.93%86.93%86.93%龍樹(shù)鎮(zhèn)74.234.261.462.5699.17%69.936794.016241.3772.4097494.21%94.21%94.21%94.21%水磨鎮(zhèn)61.919.111.000.1591.17%53.623777.892070.867220.1290286.61%86.61%86.61%86.61%小計(jì)172.2915.453.183.39154.9846913.712762.863473.62245昭陽(yáng)區(qū)樂(lè)居鎮(zhèn)11.941.760.190.03100.00%11.344941.670210.183540.0279395.00%95.00%95.00%95.00%灑漁鎮(zhèn)14.492.130.230.04100.00%13.763382.025860.221840.0335295.00%95.00%95.00%95.00%蘇甲鄉(xiāng)82.8912.201.340.20100.00%78.7435211.589091.272010.1899295.00%95.00%95.00%95.00%大山包鎮(zhèn)26.803.940.430.0656.74%14.446962.125680.233640.0348653.90%53.90%53.90%53.90%大寨子鄉(xiāng)10.141.490.160.03100.00%9.634851.418840.156410.0242195.00%95.00%95.00%95.00%永善縣馬口鎮(zhèn)2.860.420.050.010.00%00000.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%小計(jì)149.1321.952.410.31127.9336518.829682.067440.31044總計(jì)226.56321.4237.405.593.70282.9183432.542444.930913.93289表21垃圾削減量及削減率計(jì)算表縣區(qū)鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)名稱人畜糞便排放量收集率（%）削減排放量（t/a）削減率（%）CODTNTPNH3-NCODTNTPNH3-NCODTNTP