2022年醫(yī)療支出趨勢報告

2022年醫(yī)療支出趨勢報告

普華永道的健康研究所(HRI)與在美國健康計劃工作的

精算師和該行業(yè)其他部門的醫(yī)療保健高管進行了交談，

以估計來年的醫(yī)療成本趨勢。

考慮到大流行導致的成本膨脹和縮減，HRI預計2022年

的醫(yī)療成本趨勢為6.5%。這一趨勢略低于2021年預計的

7%,略高于2016年至2020年期間的所有預測值。與2021

年相比，2022年的醫(yī)療成本的下降趨勢反映了疫情對醫(yī)

療支出的持續(xù)影響逐步緩和。

接受HRI采訪的美國健康計劃高管一致認為，2022年的

2022年的醫(yī)療支出將恢復至疫情前的基線水平。

2022年值得關(guān)注的醫(yī)療支出趨勢

?藥品支出

專業(yè)藥品支出是醫(yī)療成本趨勢的持續(xù)驅(qū)動因素。對昂貴

的細胞和基因療法的管道的資金投入只會增加，因為

FDA今年已經(jīng)批準了兩種新的細胞療法治療癌癥，預計

在未來五年內(nèi)將有15到30種此類療法上市。

據(jù)IQVIA稱，生物仿制藥在美國的使用已經(jīng)開始增加，

預計從2020年到2024年將節(jié)省1040億美元，其中大部

分將在2023年和2024年實現(xiàn)。

雇主正在承擔更多的成本增長。平均而言，與十年前相

比，保險在處方藥零售支出中所占的份額有所增加，而

消費者在這方面所占份額近年來已趨于平穩(wěn)。

?網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全

與數(shù)據(jù)泄露和勒索軟件攻擊相關(guān)的間接成本可能創(chuàng)下新

高，這阻礙了企業(yè)的運作能力。

毫無疑問，網(wǎng)絡(luò)攻擊仍然是一個巨大的威脅，但要制定

防御網(wǎng)絡(luò)威脅的投資決策卻并不那么簡單。普華永道調(diào)

查的健康行業(yè)高管中，48%的人表示，他們將在2021年

增加網(wǎng)絡(luò)預算。

?意外賬單

將于2022年1月1日生效的《無意外法案》(Nosurprise

Act)在很大程度上緩和了支付方和提供商之間的行業(yè)內(nèi)

部爭端。但這對雇主醫(yī)療支出的影響尚不明確。國會預

算辦公室表示，該法案將把保費降低0.5%至1%,因為“部

分醫(yī)療服務(wù)提供商獲得的保費將減少”。

醫(yī)療保健成本研究所總裁兼首席執(zhí)行官NiallBrennan在

接受HRI采訪時表示，“用來結(jié)束意外賬單的機制似乎可

能會增加管理成本，最終將通過更高的保費轉(zhuǎn)嫁到消費

者身上”。

Medical

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illness,hospitalizations,deathandaneconomiccalamity.Atthecenterofthis

turmoi*wastheUShealthsystem,whichrapidlyrespondedwithherculean

effodetocareforitspatientsandthedevelopment,manufactureand(distribution

ofsafe,effectivediagnostics,therapiesandvaccines.11.9%

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accesstocare,ashiftlargeenoughtoinfluencemultipleaspectsofpriceand

utilizattonand.thus,medicalcosttrend.Someoftheseshiftsrepresentdeflators

oftrend;others,infiators.Thesechangesmayperssttoryearsinasystemthat

haslongresistedprofoundshjfts.In2022,thehealthsystemwilltakeatxeathand

surveythefalloutfromtheseextraordinaryfewyears.

Asithasdoneforthepast15years.PwC?sResearchInstitute(HRI)spoke

withactuariesworkingatUShealthplansandheaRhcareexecutivesinother

partsoftheindustrytogenerateanestimateOTmedicalcosttrendforthecoming

year.Takingintoaccountthepandemic-rootedfnflakxsanddeflatorsofcost,

HRI用projectinga6.5%medicalcosttrendincalendaryear2022.Thistrend

isslighttylowerthantheprojectedmedicalcosttrendin2021,whichwas7%,

andslightlyhigherthanitwasbetween2016and2020(seeFigure1).Thelower

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andpopulationhealthworsens.

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pandemic.Investmentstobolstershortfallsintheofworkingforcedbyth?pandemic,including

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areexpectedtodnvehigherpricesin2022.Theytechnology,canhelpproviderslowertheircost

includeinvestments?nnewforecastingtools,siructure>nresponsetopressureonprices,including

improvementstoth?supplychain,increasedwagesth?newpricetransparencyregulationsandgrowing

forsomestaff,slockpifesofpersonalprotectiveintersstinnarrownetworks?HRIexpectstinswill

equipment(PPE)andinfrastructurechanges.dampenpriceincreasesandspendingin2022.

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relationshipincreaseutilization.HRIexpectsthesefactorsincreasinganddecreasingthemedscal

providerstoaccelerateinvestmentsindigitaltooiscosttrendm2022,othernon-panctemic-relateddrivers

andanalyticscapabilitiestostrengthenthepatientordampenersofspendingshouldnotbeignored,

reialiorshlp,boostingutilizationin2022.includingdrugspending,cybersec5yandthe

surprise-billinglegislationpassed?nDecember2020

thattakeseffec【Jan.1,20227

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employer-sponsoredinsurancesurveyedinsurancemostcommonlydeferredtheiranr

byHRIinSeptember2020saidtheyhad

deferredsomecarebetweenMarchandTypesofcaredeferredbyindividualswithem

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delayinganaverageof62%oftheircare

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thediseaselikelywlicontinueinto2022.

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beknittedintoreturn-to-workstrategiesfor

employers.E?ghty-sixpercentofemployees

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reseanchersandvirologistssurveyedbyThepncoslikelywillbehigherthanthoseAdolGScentbehavioralh(

thejournalNatureinJanuary2021saidsecuredbythegovernment:$19.50perdosegrowthinspendingin20

thatSARS-CoV-2willcirculateaftertheforthePfizer-BioNTechvaccine.515.25functionaladolescentm(

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$10fortheone-shotJohnson&JohnsonofthePurchaserBusmen

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