講義宏觀free response解析

ThestructureofthePartI:MultipleChoice60questions–70minutes(accountfor2/3ofyourfinalBeginningwiththeMay2011APExamadministration,pointswillnolongerbedeductedforincorrectanswers.PartII.ResponseQuestions3questions-10minutesnning,50minuteswritinganswersonansweringbooklets(accountfor1/3ofyourfinalscore)APMacroeconomicsScoringWorksheetSection1:MultipleChoice ) = (OutofSection Q1 *1.1538= (outof 0.9375= (outof *1.2500= (outofTotalRawScore: )ofRawAP54321TheContentofAPmacroeconomicsBasicEconomicConceptsScarcity,choice,andopportunitycostProductionpossibilitycurveComparativeadvantage,absoluteadvantage,specializationandexchangeDemand,supplyandMarketequilibrumMacroeconomicissues:Businesscycle,unemployment,inflation,growthMeasurementofEconomicPerformance- eAccounts(Inflationmesurementandadjustment(Priceindex) eandPriceAggregatedemandandAggregatesupply，MacroeconomicequilibrumFinancialsector:Money,banking,financialmarket,moneysupplyInflation,UnemplymentandstabilizationPoliciesEconomicGrowthandOpenEconomy:InternationaltradeandBalanceofpaymentsForaneconomyasa EverytransactionhasabuyerandaEverydollarofspendingbysomebuyerisadollar eforsome“GDPistheMarketValue...”O(jiān)utputisvaluedatmarketprices.“...OfAllFinal...”Itrecordsonlythevalueoffinalgoods,notintermediategoods(thevalueiscountedonlyonce).“...GoodsandServices...Itincludesbothtangiblegoods(food,clothing,cars)andintangibleservices(haircuts,housecleaning,doctorvisits).“...Produced..Itincludesgoodsandservicescurrentlyproduced,nottransactionsinvolvinggoodsproducedinthepast.“...WithinaCountry..Itmeasuresthevalueofproductionwithinthegeographicconfinesofa“...InaGivenPeriodofItmeasuresthevalueofproductionthattakescewithinaspecificintervaloftime,usuallyayearoraquarter(threemonths).ExcludefinancialPublictransferpayments(e.g.Socialsecuritypayments,welfarepaymentsPrivatetransferpayments(e.g.Parentsgivechildren,thecashgiftsgivenatStock(andbond)markettransactions(However,paymentsforservicesprovidedbystockbrokerareincluded.)ExcludeSecondhandSellusedcartoafriendExpenditureapproachGDP(Y)isthesumoftheConsumption(C)Investment(Ig)ernmentPurchases(G)NetExports(NX)Y=C+Ig+G+Changesininventories.(positivechange—increaseinvestment,negativechange-decreaseinvestment.)InvestmenthastodowithcreationofnewcapitalNoninvestmenttransactionsisnotincludedbecausetheymerelytransfertheownership.(itdoesn’tincludetransferofpaperassets(stocks,bonds)orresaleoftangibleassets(houses,jewelry,boats) eCompensationofemployees(wageandsalaryRents(receivedbythehouseholdsandbusinessthatsupplythepropertyInterest(moneypaidtorofloans,interestonsavings e eofsoleproprietorships,partnershipsotherunincorporatedCorporateprofit(1)Corporate etaxes(toernment)(2)Dividends(tostockholders)(3)Undistributedcorporateprofits(aftertaxnotdistributedTaxesonProductionand e(NI)includesall eearnedthroughtheuseofAmerican-ownedresources,whethertheyarelocatedathomeorabroad.GDP:domestic e–netforeign +Consumptionoffixedcapital(Depreciation)-StatisticalNetdomesticproduct(NDP)=GDP-Consumptionoffixed e+ e(PI)=National e-Taxesonproductionandimports-SocialSecuritycontributions-Corporate etaxes-UndistributedcorporateProfit+Transferpayment(socialsecuritypayments,unemploymentcompensationetc) e=PI-al e(DI)=Consumption(C)+NominalGDP:valuestheproductionofgoodsandservicesatcurrentprices.RealGDP:valuestheproductionofgoodsandservicesatconstantprices.PriceIndex(inhundred)=NominalGDP/RealGDPisthebestsinglemeasureoftheeconomicwell-beingofaGDPperlsusthe eandexpenditureoftheaverageintheSomethingsthatcontributetowell-beingarenotincludedinGDP.Thevalueofleisure.ThevalueofacleanThevalueofalmostallactivitythattakesceoutsideofmarkets,suchasthevalueofthetimeparentsspendwiththeirchildrenandthevalueofvolunteerwork.EconomicGrowth:IncreaseinrealGDPorrealGDPpercapitaoversomeUnlessspecifiedotherwise,growthratesreportedinthenewsandbyinternationalagenciesusingrealGDPdefinitionofEconomicgrowth,whileforcomparinglivingstandards,realGDPpercapitalisbetterApproximatenumberofyearsrequiredtodoublerealGDP=70/annualpercentagerateofgrowth eandProductAccountsGrossDomesticProduct,3rd2010:Realgrossdomesticproduct--theoutputofgoodsandservicesproducedbylaborandpropertylocatedintheUnitedStates--increasedatanannualrateof2.0percentinthethirdquarterof2010IngredientsofSupplyIncreasesintyandqualityofnaturalresourcesIncreasesinqualityandtyofhumanresourcesIncreasesinthesupply(orstock)ofcapitalgoodsImprovementsintechnologyDemandHouseholds,businesses,andernmentmustpurchasetheeconomy’sEfficiencyfactorMustachieveeconomicefficiency(productiveefficiency:useresourcesintheleastcostlywayandallocativeefficiency:izepeople’swell-being)andfullemploymentTheBusinessAtpeak,businessactivitieshasreachedatemporaryum.Theeconomyisnearoratfullemploymentandthelevelofrealoutputisatorveryclosetotheeconomy’scapacity.Arecessionisaperiodofdeclineintotal eandInthetroughoftherecessionordepression,outputandemployment“bottomout”attheirlowestlevels.Arecessionisusuallyfollowedbyarecoveryandexpansion,aperiodinwhichrealGDP, eandemploymentrise.Economicsareexposedtobothdemandshocksandsupplyshocks.E.g.apositivedemandshockreferstoasituationinwhichdemandturnsouttobehigherthanexpected,whilenegativedemandshockreferstoasituationinwhichdemandturnsouttobelowerthanexpected.Whycan’tfirmsdealwiththedemandshocksontheirown?Theansweristhatthepricesareinflexible(slowtochange,orsticky)inshortrun.pricesareinflexible.theeconomyisdtorespondintheshortruntodemandshocksprimarilythroughchangesinoutputandemploymentratherthanthroughchangesinprices.FrictionalunemploymentreferstotheunemploymentthatresultsfromthetimethatittakestomatchworkerswithjobsStructuralunemploymentistheunemploymentthatresultsbecausethenumberofjobsavailableinsomelabormarketsisinsufficienttoprovideajobforeveryonewhowantsone.Cyclicalunemploymentreferstotheyear-to-yearfluctuationsinunemploymentarounditsnaturalrate.FullemploymentdefinedNocyclicalFullemploymentrateofunemplyment=Naturalrateofunemployment=fictionalunemployment+structuralunemploymentUnemploymentrate=numberemployed/laborLaborpartipationrate=Labor /AdultpopulationOkun’sLaw:Each1%aboveNaturalRateofUnemploymentcreatesnegativeoutputCPI=PriceoftheMostRecentMarketBasketintheParticularYear/PriceestimateoftheMarketBasketin1982-1984x100DemandPullInflation:Causedbyconsumersspendingbeyondeconomy’stoCost-PushInflation:Inflationcausedbysupplysideofeconomy.shocks”,abruptincreasesinfactorcosts,pushpricesThepricelevelincreasedeventhoughtotalspendingwasnotexcessive.Thesewereperiodswhenoutputandemploymentwerebothdeclining.(riseofwageandsupplyshock)WhoisHurtbyInflation? eReceivers,Savers,Creditors(Lenders),Dollarstheylendareworthlessthandollarstheygetback.WhoisUnaffectedbyInflation? eReceivers,Debtors(Borrowers)NominalInterestRate-InflationPremium=RealInterestRateHyperinflation:extraordinarilyrapidinflation,canhaveadevastatingimpactonrealoutputandemployment.Averagepropensitytoconsume(APC)= Averagepropensitytosave(APS) Marginalpropensitytoconsume(MPC)=ChangeinConsumption/Changein Marginalpropensity(trendency)tosave(MPS)=ChangeinSaving/Changein edeterminantsofconsumptionandWealth,Borrowing,Expectations,Realinterestinvestuptothepointwhereexpectedrateofreturn=realinterestMultiplier=ChangeinRealGDP/InitialChangeinSpending:Dollarsspentarereceivedas ereceivedisspent(MPC),InitialchangesinspendingcauseaspendingchainMultiplier=1/1-MPCOR=Aggregatedemandisascheduleorcurvethatshowstheamountsofrealoutput(readGDP)thatbuyerscollectivelydesiretopurchaseateachpossibleWhytheDownwardSlope?“WealthEffect”,Interest-RateEffect,ForeignPurchasesEffectGDP/AD=C+I+G+(X- RealDomesticOutput,AS:ASisascheduleorcurveshowingtherelationshipbetweenthepricelevelandamountofrealdomesticoutputthatfirmsintheeconomyproduceImmediateshortrun:InputandoutputpricesfixedbycontractualShortRunAggregateSupply():outputpricesareflexible,inputpricesareeithertotallyfixedorhighlyinflexible.LongRunAggregateSupply():Verticalateconomy’sfullemployment(potentialDeterminantsofaggregatesupply:Note:othersfactorarenotchange.Changeininputprice,Changeinproductivity,Changeinlegal-institutionalThePhillipsCurve:DemonstratestradeoffbetweeninflationandFiscal:Changesinernmentpurchasesandtaxcollectionsdesignedtoachievefullemploymentandnon-inflationarydomesticoutput.Discretionaryfiscal:Active,Eliminaterecessionaryorinflationarygap,CountercyclicalNondiscretionaryfiscal(AutomaticStabilizers):ernmenttaxrevenuechangeautomaticallyoverthecourseofthebusinesscycleExpansionary:Usedtofixrecession,increaseaggregatedemandandrealoutput.IncreaseernmentPurchases,CutTaxes,SomeCombinationoftheTwo.BudgetContractionary:Usedtocurbinflation,decreaseaggregatedemandandrealoutput.DecreaseernmentPurchases,RaiseTaxes,SomeCombinationoftheTwo,BudgetsurplusCrowding-outeffect:Anexpansionaryfiscal(deficitspending)mayincreasetheinterestrateandreduceinvestmentspending,therebyweakingorcancelingthestimulusoftheexpansionary.Currency:M1:Currency(Coin+Paper)+CheckableM2=M1+Nearmoney(Smalltimedeposits(e.g.ofdeposits)+MoneyMarketmutualfundsheldbyindividuals+Savingdeposits(includingmoneymarketdepositaccount)FederalReserveFractionalReserveBankingSystem:Onlypart(afraction)ofcheckabledepositsarebackedupbycashinbankvaultsorinbank’saccountsattheFed.Sizeofthe“fraction”heldinreservesisregulatedbyFed.BanksCreateMoneyThroughLendingActualReserves-Requiredreserves=excessMonetarymultiplier=1/Requiredreserveration=1/RThemoney-creatingabilityofthebankingsystemwillbelessthantheumamountindicatedbythemoneymultiplierwhenpeopleholdaportionoftheirmoneyintheformofThreeToolsofMonetary:1.OpenMarketBuyingandSellingernmentbonds(securities)2ReserveReserve:TheFebmanipulatethereserveratioinordertoinfluencetheabilityofcommercialbankstolend.3DiscountRate:Discountrate=interestratepaidbybanksforborrowingmoneyfromtheFed.Expansionary(fixrecessionaryBuybonds,Cutreserverequirement,CutdiscountImpact:Increasedmoneysupply,Lowerinterestrates,IncreasedCandrealGDP,Increasedaggregatedemand(shifttoright)Contractionary(fixinflationarygap)Sellbonds,Raisereserverequirement,RaisediscountImpact:Decreasedmoneysupply,HIgherinterestrates,DecreasedCandI,DecreasedGDP,Decreasedaggregatedemand(shifttoleft)FederalFundsRate:Interestratebankschargeeachotherforovernightloanstocoverreserveshortfalls.Primeinterestrateisthebenarkinterestusedbybanksasareferencepointforawiderangeofinterestrateschargedonloanstobusinessesandidividuals.ThePrimeinterestrateishigherthantheFederalfundsratebecausetheprimerateinvollveslonger,moreriskyloansthanovernightloansbetweenbanksClassicalysis:Supplycreatesitsowndemand.Theernmentdoesnotneedtoconcernitselfwithpoliciesthatmaintaindemandatadesirablelevel.VerticalAggregateSupplyCurvebecauseincreaseinpricelevelhavenoeffectonrealGDP.amarketecononyisself-correctingandthuswillnotremaininarecessionindefiniy.Keynesianysis:AScurveishorizontaluntilthefull-employmentlevelofoutput,whereit esvertical.Horizontal“depressionrange”ofASwhereexcesscapacityandunemploymentallowincreasesinoutputand ewithoutforcingthepriceleveltoincrease.“sticky”wagescannotadjusttomatchchangesinpricelevels,deviationfromfullemploymentoutputmightpersistuntilernmentstepsinwithmonetaryorfiscaltobolsterortametheeconomy.Monetaristview:EquationofexchangeMV=PQStablevelocity:factorsalteringvelocitychangegraduallyandpredicablyandthatchangesinvelocityfromoneyeartothenextcanbereadilyanticipated.Acountryhasacomparativeadvantageinproducingagoodifitcanthatgoodataloweropportunitycostthananyothercountry.Thebasisforcomparativetradeisdifferentialsinopportunitycostsbetweencountries(andBalanceofpayment:Currentaccount(goodsandservices)+Captialaccount(internationalborrowingandinvestment)綜合題：6個圖：PPC,AS/AD(,),Loanablefundmarket,foreignexchangemarket,philipcurve,moneymarketcrowdout=interestratealargeincreaseinlaborproductivity===>RDGPincrease,pricelevelbankcancreatemoneybylendingexcessreservetoIfpublicincreasesholdingmoneyascurrency===>interestrateIfpublicincreasesholdingmoneyascurrency====>BanklessabletoexpandKeepotherfactorsconstant,anincreaseinUnitedstatesimports====>dollardepreciatebecausetheworldsupplyofdollarswillriseSupplyshockstendtochangebothrelativepricesandthegeneralpriceAnincreaseinthelaborparticipationratewillmakeitmoredifficulttoreduceunemploymentIfalargeincreaseintotalspendinghasnoeffectonRGDP,itmustbeturethatthepricelevelisrising.BasedonKeynesiantheory,the