東華能源 -聚丙烯業(yè)務(wù)承壓持續(xù)向氫能產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型

aimerlumelume24May2023聚丙烯業(yè)務(wù)承壓，持續(xù)向氫能產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型ypropyleneBusinessUnderPressureContinuouslyTransitioningToTheHydrogenEnergyIndustry觀點聚焦InvestmentFocus 維持優(yōu)于大市MaintainOUTPERFORM級發(fā)行股票數(shù)目最高最低值注：現(xiàn)價Rmb8.85為2023年5月17日收盤價優(yōu)于大市OUTPERFORM Rmb8.85Rmb10.08Rmb13.95bn/US$2.00bnUS$16.59mn 1,576mn52%Rmb9.77-Rmb7.57PriceReturnMSCIChinaSep2Jan-231mth3mth12mth絕對值-3.9%19.9%絕對值(美元)-5.5%-4.6%相對MSCIChina23.5%25.9%57.9%(Rmbmn)Dec-22ADec-23EDec-24EDec-25E營業(yè)收入29,19928,77231,83034,440(+/-)11%11%8%凈利潤436561,0911,809(+/-)-97%1444%66%66%全面攤薄EPS(Rmb)0.030.420.691.15毛利率4.2%7.7%8.9%凈資產(chǎn)收益率0.4%6.0%9.0%13.0%市盈率資料來源：公司信息,HTI328218(PleaseseeAPPENDIX1forEnglishsummary)事件：公司發(fā)布2022年年報及2023年一季報。2022年，公司實現(xiàn)營收291.99億元(同比+1.8%)，實現(xiàn)歸母凈利潤0.43億元(同比-96.7%)。2023Q1，公司實現(xiàn)營業(yè)收入71.6億元(同比+2.49%，環(huán)比-0.42%)，歸母凈利潤0.52億元(同比-51.42%，環(huán)比+144.69%)。產(chǎn)品價差收窄，聚丙烯業(yè)務(wù)承壓。2022年，公司聚丙烯業(yè)務(wù)實現(xiàn)營收124.22億元，同比+45%；實現(xiàn)毛利5.12億元，同比-71%。聚丙烯業(yè)務(wù)承壓原因主要系2022年上半年地緣政治沖突推高原油、丙烷等原料價格，下半年產(chǎn)品聚丙烯價格受外部需求不佳影響，價格持續(xù)下行。開拓綠色化工和氫能源產(chǎn)業(yè)，有效緩解聚丙烯價差收窄影響。公司近年來逐漸退出LPG國際和國內(nèi)貿(mào)易業(yè)務(wù)，專注于綠色化工和氫能源產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展。2022年，公司氫氣實現(xiàn)銷售約2.42萬噸，收入約3.3億元，同比+54.21%，氫氣銷售增長有效緩解了PDH-PP價差收窄對業(yè)績影響。2022年9月份，公司與中國核工業(yè)集團(tuán)有限公司簽署戰(zhàn)略合作協(xié)議，計劃在茂名引進(jìn)高溫氣冷堆，共同打造零碳產(chǎn)業(yè)園。茂名項目已進(jìn)入試車階段。公司目前擁有180萬噸丙烷脫氫制丙烯產(chǎn)能160萬噸聚丙烯產(chǎn)能。其中張家港工廠為60萬噸PDH+40萬噸PP，寧波工廠為120萬噸PDH+120萬噸PP，茂名在建項目置流程陸續(xù)打通，將逐步從單機(jī)運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)過渡到聯(lián)動試車。投資建議。公司近兩年逐步剝離主動性液化石油氣貿(mào)易業(yè)務(wù)，向生產(chǎn)制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型；未來產(chǎn)能投放較多，業(yè)績有望保持增長。我們預(yù)計東華能源2023~2025年歸母凈利潤分別為6.56億元、10.91億元和18.09億元，EPS分別為0.42、0.69、1.15元，2023年BPS為6.98元。參照可比公司估值水平，給予其2023年24倍PE，對應(yīng)目標(biāo)價為10.08元，對應(yīng)2023PB為1.44倍(原目標(biāo)市”評級。風(fēng)險提示。產(chǎn)品價格大幅波動，下游需求不及預(yù)期，在建項目進(jìn)展不及預(yù)期。JunjunZhujj.zhu@inHuhuhtiseccomcom224May20232EEE營業(yè)收入(億元)營業(yè)成本(億元).34毛利(億元)毛利率(%)營業(yè)收入(億元)營業(yè)成本(億元)毛利(億元)毛利率(%)營業(yè)收入(億元)營業(yè)成本(億元)毛利(億元)2毛利率(%)營業(yè)收入(億元)71營業(yè)成本(億元)毛利(億元)4175毛利率(%)營業(yè)收入(億元)1.88營業(yè)成本(億元)7.37毛利(億元)毛利率(%)EPS(元).SH448.SZ學(xué)5.440613324May20233預(yù)測財務(wù)指標(biāo)2EEE利潤表(百萬元)2EEE每股指標(biāo)(元)9797801260%36.5658001.300.460%03760%.82.90.007960%每股凈資產(chǎn)每股經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流每股股利價值評估(倍)%盈利能力指標(biāo)(%)5.3%5.3%4.4%24383.2% 1% 4% 1%1.4%0.4%6.7%4627675.3%.0%.7%.3%5% 5157243679投資回報率盈利增長(%)EBIT償債能力指標(biāo)速動比率現(xiàn)金比率指標(biāo)應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)存貨周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)2EE2EEE0612200011881833606790497661141131720672221201155150136977222101137-15327現(xiàn)金流投資投資活動現(xiàn)金流債權(quán)募資資現(xiàn)金凈流量00 0.3% 0.3% 0.7%343911263.3% 44 599.2% .3% .4%218.7%899847.9%0%308.9% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7%3.4% 566 2% % %201%% 7 %%投資收益有效所得稅率%凈利潤資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表(百萬元)2EEE金應(yīng)收賬款及應(yīng)收票據(jù)存貨230379動資產(chǎn)2256在建工程1361617171022短期借款應(yīng)付票據(jù)及應(yīng)付賬款032預(yù)收賬款1656動負(fù)債222期負(fù)債3881717468136171022期為05月22日；(2)以上各表均為簡表424May20234APPENDIX1SummaryThecompanyreleasestheannualreportof2022andQ1reportof2023.In2022,thecompanyrealizedrevenueofRmb29.199bn,+1.8%YoY;realizedNPAtSofRmb43mn,-96.7%YoY.InQ12023,thecompanyrealizedrevenueofRmb7.16bn,+2.49%YoY,-0.42%QoQ;realizedNPAtSofRmb52mn,-51.42%YoY,+144.69%QoQ.Thenarrowingpricedifferenceofproductshasputpressureonthepolypropylenebusiness.In2022,thecompany'spolypropylenebusinessachievedarevenueofRmb12.422bn,+45%YoY;andagrossprofitofRmb512mn,-71%YoY.Thepressureonthepolypropylenebusinessismainlyduetothegeopoliticalconflictsinthefirsthalfof2022,whichpushedupthepricesofcrudeoil,propane,andotherrawmaterials.Inthesecondhalfoftheyear,thepricesofpolypropyleneproductscontinuedtodeclineduetopoorexternaldemand.Thecompanyhasbeenexpandingintothegreenchemicalandhydrogenenergyindustriestoeffectivelyalleviatetheimpactofthenarrowingpolypropylenepricedifference.Inrecentyears,thecompanyhasgraduallyphasedoutitsinternationalanddomesticLPGtradingbusinessesandfocusedonthedevelopmentofgreenchemicalandhydrogenenergyindustries.In2022,thecompanyachievedsalesofapproximately24,200tonsofhydrogengas,witharevenueofapproximatelyRmb330mn,+54.21%YoY.Thegrowthinhydrogengassaleseffectivelymitigatedtheimpactofthenarrowingpricedifferencebetweenpropanedehydrogenation(PDH)andpolypropylene(PP)onthecompany'sperformance.InSeptember2022,thecompanysignedastrategiccooperationagreementwithChinaNationalNuclearCorporationLimited(CNNC)tointroducehigh-temperaturegas-cooledreactorsinMaoming,jointlycreatingazero-carbonindustrialpark.Profitforecastandinvestmentrating.Inthepasttwoyears,thecompanyhasgraduallydivesteditsactiveliquefiedpetroleumgastradingbusinessandtransitionedtotheproductionandmanufacturingindustry;Inthefuture,therewillbemoreproductioncapacityinvestment.Performanceisexpectedtoincreaseaswell.WeestimatethattheNPAtSin2023-2025willbeRmb0.656/1.091/1.809bnrespectively.WereviseourEPSofRmb0.42/0.69/1.15respectivelyfrom2023-2025(EPSofRmb1.02/1.25/1.57respectivelyfrom2021to2023previously),andBPSofRmb6.98in2023.Referringtothetargetpricesofcomparablecompanies,wegiveatargetpriceofRmb10.08,basedon24xPERand1.44xPBin2023(wegaveatargetpriceofRmb18.36basedon18xPERin2021previously,-45.09%).Wemaintain"OUTPERFORM"rating.Riskswarnings.Productpricesfluctuatesignificantly.Downstreamdemandfallsshortofexpectations.Projectconstructionprogressisnotasexpected.56下下m 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