翻譯資格考試（catti）一級(jí)筆譯材料五

GlobalImpact:NowheretoHide全球影響：無處躲藏China'snewestexportisitsfinancialsystem,for

goodandforill中國最新的出口產(chǎn)品是其金融體系，有好也有壞SomeofthefinestinfrastructuretobefoundbetweenSingaporeandDubailiesinthesouthofSriLanka,closetothecrashingwavesoftheIndianOcean.Broadhighwaysconnectadeep-seaharbourtoasilvery,angularconventioncentreand,furtherinland,toanelegantairportterminalwithvaultedwoodenceilings.Butitdoesnottakelongforvisitorstoseethatsomethingisawry.Wildpeacocksscamperingacrosstheroadseasilyoutnumberthepeopleusingthestate-of-the-artfacilities.Theportseeslessthanashipperdayandtheairport,whichhasbeenopenforthreeyears,nolongeroffersregularflights.TheSriLankangovernment'sdebtonthecomplexrunstoatleast$1.5billion,ornearly2%ofthecountry'sGDP.AndalmostallofthatisowedtoChinesebanks.新加坡與迪拜之間最好的一些基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施位于斯里蘭卡南部，瀕臨白浪滔滔的印度洋。寬闊的高速公路連接著這里的深水港、多角形銀色會(huì)展中心，以及離海邊更遠(yuǎn)一些的有木質(zhì)拱頂、風(fēng)格優(yōu)雅的機(jī)場候機(jī)樓。但游客很快就會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)哪里不對(duì)勁。穿過馬路的野生孔雀明顯多過使用這些先進(jìn)設(shè)施的人;港口一天也不一定會(huì)?？恳凰掖?機(jī)場已經(jīng)啟用三年，現(xiàn)在都沒有定期航班了。斯里蘭卡政府為修建這些基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施所欠的債務(wù)總計(jì)至少15億美元相當(dāng)于全國GDP的近2%。其中大部分貸款都來自中資銀行。SriLankanofficialsarecarefulnottoblameChinaforthemess.Itwasthepreviouspresident,MahindaRajapaksa,whowantedallthesefacilitiesbuiltnearhishometownofHambantota,eventhoughtherewaslittlecommercialjustificationforthem.Butprivatelytheyfeelthatthelendermustalsobearresponsibility.WereitnotforChinesebanksextendingvastamountsofcreditwithminimalsafeguards,SriLankawouldneverhavebeensaddledwiththesedebts.Moreover,theChinesebankschargedunusuallyhighinterestratesonatleastsomeoftheloans.Theterm"odiouslending"comestomind,saysaSriLankangovernmentadviser.Partlybecauseofitsdebtloadandbigloomingrepayments,SriLankaturnedtotheInternationalMonetaryFundthisyearforabail-out.面對(duì)這個(gè)爛攤子，斯里蘭卡官員小心翼翼地不去歸罪于中國。把這些設(shè)施修建在靠近漢班托塔是斯里蘭卡前總統(tǒng)馬欣達(dá)?拉賈帕克薩的主意，這個(gè)決定沒有什么商業(yè)理由，只因?yàn)闈h班托塔是他的家鄉(xiāng)。不過私底下，官員們覺得貸款方也必須要負(fù)一定責(zé)任，如果不是中資銀行在還款保障極低的情況下仍放出大量貸款，斯里蘭卡根本不會(huì)背上沉重的債務(wù)。而且，至少有一部分中資銀行貸款的利息率高得異乎尋常。一位斯里蘭卡政府的顧問說，這不禁讓人想到"惡債"一詞。斯里蘭卡今年向國際貨幣基金組織尋求緊急救助，原因之一就是債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)太重，而且大量債務(wù)即將到期。TrackingthewaysinwhichtheChinesefinancialsystemaffectstheglobalfinancialsystemisfarfromstraightforward.SinceChinaistheworld7sbiggesttradingnation,thefateofitseconomyclearlyaffectsmostoftheglobe.TheslowdowninitsconstructionindustryhasalreadybatteredcommodityexportersfromMongoliatoBrazil.ButdirectfinancialconnectionsbetweenChinaandtherestoftheworldaremuchmorelimited.InChina,itselfregulationscaptheinvolvementofforeigninstitutions,andChinesebanks,insurersandbrokerageshavebeenremarkablydiffidentaboutexpandingabroad.Nevertheless,thepromiseandtheproblemsofChina,sfinancialsectorareripplingbeyonditsborders.要搞清楚中國金融系統(tǒng)如何影響全球金融體系并非易事。中國是世界最大的貿(mào)易國，其經(jīng)濟(jì)命運(yùn)自然會(huì)影響世界上大部分地區(qū)。從蒙古到巴西，大宗商品出口國都已受到中國建筑業(yè)發(fā)展減速的沉重打擊。但中國和其他國家之間的直接金融聯(lián)系則要少得多。在國內(nèi)，監(jiān)管對(duì)境外金融機(jī)構(gòu)的參與有種種限制，中資銀行、保險(xiǎn)公司和證券公司對(duì)于境外拓展也顯得十分畏首畏尾。然而，中國金融業(yè)的承諾和問題，其影響都超越了中國國界。AsSriLankacanattest,onecrucial,ifoftenoverlooked,linkageisChina'sfundingforotheremergingmarkets.Attheendoflastyear,thecombinedoverseasloanbookofChina1stwoleadingdevelopmentlenders,ChinaDevelopmentBankandExport-ImportBankofChina,reached$550billion,amultipleoftheWorldBank'sroughly$150billion.SomeofthatlendinghasgonetoChinesefirmsdoingbusinessabroad,butthebulkhasbeenforgovernmentsandcompaniesindevelopingcountries.中國與全球金融業(yè)之間的一個(gè)極端重要而又常常被忽略的聯(lián)系，就是中國為其他新興市場提供貸款，斯里蘭卡即為一個(gè)明證。去年年底，中國兩大開發(fā)銀行——國家開發(fā)銀行和中國進(jìn)出口銀行一海外貸款總額合計(jì)達(dá)到5500億美元，數(shù)倍于世界銀行的約1500億美元。有些貸款流向在海外開展業(yè)務(wù)的中國公司，但大部分都是借給了發(fā)展中國家的政府和企業(yè)。Agreatdeal?劃算嗎？ItmightseemchurlishtocriticiseChinaforlendingtopoorcountries,butloansarenotgifts.Therecipientshavetorepaythem,soitisfairtoaskwhethertheyaregettingagooddeal.Theevidenceismixed.China'smoneyhasbuiltmanyusefulthings,includingpowerstations,roads,damsandrailwaysacrossAfrica,LatinAmericaandSouthAsia.Ithasalsoofferedalifelinetoemergingmarketssufferingcapitaloutflows.Lastyear,China'stwodevelopmentbankslent$29billiontohard-hitLatinAmericangovernments,threetimesasmuchasin2014,accordingtotheInter-AmericanDialogue,aWashingtonthink-tank.批評(píng)中國向貧窮國家貸款似乎顯得有點(diǎn)無禮，但貸款不是贈(zèng)款，拿了錢是要還的，所以問清楚這錢借得是否劃算也正當(dāng)合理。然而這個(gè)問題不好回答。中國的資金幫助非洲I、拉丁美洲和南亞諸國修建了發(fā)電廠、道路、水壩和鐵路等有用設(shè)施，也是遭受資本外流之苦的新興市場的救命稻草。華盛頓智庫美洲國家對(duì)話組織的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，去年中國的兩大開發(fā)銀行向遭受重創(chuàng)的拉美各國政府貸款290億美元，是2014年的3倍。ButChinesemoneyispartofwhatgotthesecountriesintotroubleinthefirstplace.ItsdevelopmentbankshaveexportedsomeoftheworstexcessesoftheChinesefinancialsystem:lendingouthugedollopsofcashwithfewstringsattached,otherthanthatChinesecontractorsmustdomuchoftheconstruction.InthecaseoftheairportandportinsouthernSriLanka,officialssaytherewasinsufficientanalysisoftheirviabilityandnocompetitivebidding.“Wouldithavebeenbadtoinsistontheseconditions?Thesearethingsweneededtodo,“saysHarshadeSilva,acriticoftheoriginalloanswhoisnowdeputyforeignminister.AllegationsofcorruptionandwastehavealsofollowedChineseloansaroundfromPakistantoAngola,EcuadorandVenezuela.不過，中國的貸款也是這些國家當(dāng)初陷入困境的原因之-O其開發(fā)銀行向外輸出的是中國金融系統(tǒng)中嚴(yán)重過剩的資金：大筆的現(xiàn)金貸款，除了要求大部分的建設(shè)工程由中國企業(yè)承包以外，幾乎沒什么附加條件。以斯里蘭卡南部的機(jī)場和港口為例，政府官員說這兩個(gè)項(xiàng)目沒有進(jìn)行充分的可行性分析，也沒有競爭性招標(biāo)?，F(xiàn)任斯里蘭卡外交部副部長的哈沙德?席爾瓦對(duì)當(dāng)初的貸款持批評(píng)態(tài)度，"當(dāng)初堅(jiān)持這些要求難道不對(duì)嗎?這些本來就是我們?cè)撟龅摹?從巴基斯坦到安哥拉，從厄瓜多爾到委內(nèi)瑞拉，中國貸款所到之處，對(duì)當(dāng)?shù)卣瘮『屠速M(fèi)的指控如影隨形。TherearesomesignsthatChinawantstomenditsways.Ithasstartedbeingtougheronloanrecipients,andishopingtoemulatetheWorldBank1sbestpracticesinrunningtheAsianInfrastructureInvestmentBank,amultilaterallenderitestablishedlastyear.YetthelegacyofthepastdecadeisthatanumberofpoorcountriesarenowdeeplyindebttoChina,sometimeswithlittletoshowforit.China,toitscredit,hassofarbeenaccommodatingtothoseintrouble,extendingmaturitiesandprovidingnewfinancing.ButifChinaitselfhitstheskidsandlosesmoreforeign-currencyreserves,itwillhavefewerdollarstospareforothers.ThatwouldmaketheoutlookforthosealreadyinhocktoChinaevengrimmer.有跡象表明，中國意欲改變貸款方式。先是對(duì)貸款對(duì)象國提出了更嚴(yán)格的要求，同時(shí)也希望效仿世行的最佳實(shí)踐來管理亞洲基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資銀行——亞投行是中國去年成立一個(gè)多邊貸款機(jī)構(gòu)。然而過去十年的遺留問題在于，數(shù)個(gè)向中國借款的窮國已經(jīng)債臺(tái)高筑，而且有時(shí)拿到貸款卻毫無建樹。值得贊揚(yáng)的是，到目前為止，中國對(duì)那些深陷泥潭的國家還算義氣，延長了債務(wù)期限，并提供新資金。但是如果中國遇上麻煩，有更多的外匯儲(chǔ)備流失，能給別國用的美元就不多了。果真如此，已經(jīng)深陷中國債務(wù)泥潭的國家的前景就將更加暗淡。Tiny,butnotforlong影響雖小，卻不會(huì)太久Foradvancedeconomies,thepicturelooksverydifferent.Chinesebankshaveonlyaminorpresencethere,sothedangersofaChina-ledcreditcruncharemuchsmaller.AttheendoflastyearoverseasloansbyChinesecommercialbankstotalledjust$410billion,lessthanhalftheloanportfolioofWellsFargo,America'slargestbankbymarketvalue.Chinesebankshavebeenwaryaboutmakinginternationalacquisitionsafterill-timedinvestmentsbyChinaInvestmentCorp,asovereign-wealthfund,justbeforetheglobalfinancialcrisis.IndustrialandCommercialBankofChina1s$690mpurchaseoftheLondon-basedtradingunitofSouthAfrica'sStandardBankisoneofthemostambitiousoverseasforaysbyaChinesebankever-yetitisworthlessthan0.03%ofICBC7sassets.對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體來說，情況則大為不同。中資銀行在那些國家的影響力不大，所以中國引發(fā)信貸危機(jī)的危險(xiǎn)要小得多。去年年底，中國商業(yè)銀行海外貸款總計(jì)只有4100億美元，還不及富國銀行（美國市值最大的銀行）貸款組合的一半。全球金融危機(jī)前夕，主權(quán)財(cái)富基金中國投資有限責(zé)任公司（簡稱中投）的投資時(shí)機(jī)失當(dāng)，此后中資銀行對(duì)于跨國并購態(tài)度謹(jǐn)慎。中國工商銀行以6.9億美元收購南非標(biāo)準(zhǔn)銀行位于倫敦的國際市場業(yè)務(wù)部，已是中資銀行最大規(guī)模的海外收購了。盡管如此，這一并購金額也還不到工行資產(chǎn)的0.03%。Whateverhappenstothedomesticeconomy,itseemsinevitablethatChinesefinancialinstitutionswillincreasetheirweightindevelopedmarketsinthecomingyears.IfgrowthinChinaholdsupwell,theywillhaveevenmorecashtodeployabroad;iftheirowneconomystumbles,theywillhaveanextraincentivetolookabroad.Fornow,lessthan3%ofChinesebanks'102trillionyuaninloansareinforeigncurrencies.JustservingChinesecompaniesastheyventureabroadwillensureabigincrease:theyhaveaccountedfornearlyathirdofallglobalcross-borderM&Adealssofarthisyear,accordingtoDealogic.OfChineseinsurers,13trillionyuaninassets,amere2%arecurrentlyoverseas.Insurersarestartingtograbheadlineswiththeiroverseasinvestments,suchasPingAn'sacquisitionoftheLloyd'sbuilding,aLondonlandmark,andAnbang'sbidforStarwoodHotels&Resorts,owneroftheSheratonandWestinbrands.Morearesuretofollow.未來，不管國內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)如何發(fā)展，中國金融機(jī)構(gòu)看似將不可避免地在發(fā)達(dá)國家市場上增加影響力。如果中國能持續(xù)穩(wěn)定增長，它們就會(huì)有更多現(xiàn)金配置于海外;如果中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展受挫，它們則更有動(dòng)力放眼海外。目前中資銀行102萬億元貸款總額中只有不到3%是外匯貸款。研究機(jī)構(gòu)Dealogic的數(shù)據(jù)顯示：今年到目前為止，全球跨境并購近三分之一都由走出去的中國企業(yè)完成，僅為這些企業(yè)提供貸款就一定會(huì)大幅增加外匯貸款的比重。中資保險(xiǎn)公司13萬億元的資產(chǎn)中，海外資產(chǎn)目前只占2%。它們?cè)诤Ｍ獾耐顿Y開始占據(jù)新聞?lì)^條，例如平安收購倫敦地標(biāo)建筑勞埃德大廈，安邦競購喜達(dá)屋酒店及度假村集團(tuán)（旗下?lián)碛邢瞾淼?、威斯汀等酒店品牌）。更多交易必將接踵而來。Insomeways,thisistobewelcomed.Overthepast15yearsChinahastransformedearningsfromitstradesurplusintoforeign-exchangereserves,mostofwhichinturnwerestashedawayinAmericangovernmentbonds,whicharesafebutlow-yielding.Foreigninvestmentandoverseasacquisitions,ifwellmanaged,areamoreproductiveuseofChina'ssavings.某種程度上來說這是好事。在過去15年里，中國把從貿(mào)易順差得來的收入轉(zhuǎn)為外匯儲(chǔ)備，其中大部分都用于購買美國國債，安全但收益率低。如果管理得當(dāng)，海外投資和跨境并購能更有效地利用中國的儲(chǔ)蓄。Yettheseoutboundforaysalsoharbourseriousdangers.Inthevanguardarestate-ownedenterprises,manyofwhicharealreadyleveragedtothehiltathome.TakeChemChina,achemicalsgiantthatbid$44billionforSyngenta,aSwissrival,earlierthisyear.Ifapproved,thiswillbeChina,sbiggestoverseastakeoverinhistory.YetChemChinazsdebt-to-equityratiois234%;Syngentazsisamuchmoreconservative44%.然而這些跨境并購也隱含著嚴(yán)重的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。打頭陣的都是國企，其中很多企業(yè)的國內(nèi)杠桿已達(dá)高位。以年初化工巨頭中國化工競購其瑞士競購對(duì)手先正達(dá)為例，如果獲批，將成為中國有史以來最大的跨境收購案。然而中國化工的負(fù)債權(quán)益比高達(dá)234%,而先正達(dá)只有44%,相對(duì)要保守得多。Innormalcircumstances,banksmightbereluctanttofundcompaniesalreadycarryingsomuchdebt.ButChinesebanksareonlytoowillingtobackSOEs,especiallywheninternationalexpansionispartoftheirnationalmission.Foreignbanks,too,assumethatgovernmentsupportforSOEsisrock-solid.ThesedealsarespreadingChinaInczsindebtednesstoforeignmarkets;thebalance-sheetsofitsacquisitiontargetswillbecomemuchmorevulnerabletoadownturningrowth.在正常情況下，銀行可能不愿放貸給債務(wù)水平已經(jīng)很高的企業(yè)。但中資銀行卻十分樂于支持國企走出去，尤其是在海外擴(kuò)張成為一項(xiàng)國家使命的時(shí)候。外資銀行也認(rèn)為政府對(duì)國企的支持堅(jiān)如磐石。這些并購案正將中國企業(yè)的負(fù)債推向海外市場;一旦增長下滑，收購目標(biāo)的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表將更為脆弱。Mercifully,directglobalexposuretothedangerswithinChina'sfinancialsystemisstillsmallfornow.Thatisthanksinlargeparttoaregulatorywallaroundtheeconomy:foreignerscanownnomorethan20%oflocalbanks,andcaninvestinstocksandbanksonlythroughstrictlycontrolledchannels.Asaresult,foreigninvestorsownjustaround1%oftheChinesestockmarketandevenlessofthebondmarket.萬幸的是，中國金融體系內(nèi)的危險(xiǎn)對(duì)全球的直接影響目前還很小。這主要是歸功于中國經(jīng)濟(jì)監(jiān)管對(duì)外資的限制：外資在本地銀行持股不得超過20%，且只有通過嚴(yán)格管控的渠道才能投資股票和銀行。因此，海外投資者在中國股票市場的份額只有1%，債券市場還要更少。Internationalbanks,fortheirpart,accountforonly1.5%oftotalcommercialbankassetsinChina.Morethanhalfofthoseassetsareconcentratedinthehandsofthreeinstitutions:HSBC,StandardCharteredandSing叩ore'sOCBCWingHang,accordingtoKPMG.Severalothers,includingGoldmanSachs,BankofAmericaandCiti,previouslyhadlargeinvestmentsinChinesebanksbutsoldthemforchunkyprofitsinrecentyears.外資銀行資產(chǎn)僅占中國商業(yè)銀行總資產(chǎn)的L5%。據(jù)畢馬威的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，其中半數(shù)以上的資產(chǎn)集中在三家銀行：匯豐、渣打和新加坡的華僑永亨銀行。另外幾家，包括高盛、美國銀行和花旗，曾在中資銀行有大筆投資，但是近年來全部退出，獲利頗豐。ForforeignbankswithbigoperationsinChina,itsslowdownclearlyposesrisks.StandardCharteredgotatasteofthatin2014,whenitsetasideabout$175mtocoverlossesincurredinlendingtoaChinesetradingcompany,whichhadpledgedthesamestockpileofmetalsascollateralmanytimesovertodifferentbanks.ThatscandalalsodraggedinCiti,HSBCandothers.Buttheyhavegenerallybeencareful,partlybecausetheyhavenoalternative.Chinesebanks,withtheirdeeperlocalconnectionsandrapidlending,havescoopedupthevastmajorityofdomesticclients,includingthemostindebtedones.Foreignbanks,byandlarge,stillserveinternationalcompanies,whichareamongthesafestborrowersinChina."Thejoyofbeingadropintheoceanisthatyoucanchooseyourdropintheocean/1jokesoneforeignveteran.對(duì)于在中國業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)模較大的外資銀行來說，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩無疑帶來了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。渣打銀行在2014年就吃了苦頭。當(dāng)時(shí)渣打向一家中國貿(mào)易公司發(fā)放了貸款，而這家公司向多家銀行多次抵押同一批金屬，最終渣打損失了1.75億美元。這一案件還牽涉到了花旗、匯豐等其他銀行，不過總體來說，外資銀行在中國還是很謹(jǐn)慎的，原因之一是它們別無選擇。中資銀行與本地客戶關(guān)系深厚，放貸速度快，手中已握有絕大部分的國內(nèi)客戶，包括債務(wù)最沉重的客戶。外資銀行總體來說仍然主要服務(wù)國際公司，而它們?cè)谥袊彩亲罘€(wěn)妥的客戶。一位資深外籍銀行人士開玩笑說："作為九牛之一毛的好處就在于你可以選擇當(dāng)哪根毛。"Thenextfewyearscouldbringdramaticchangesonmultiplefronts.Regulatorshaveopenednewchannelsforforeignerstoinvestinstocks,creatingalinkbetweentheShanghaiandHongKongstockexchanges;anotherlinktotheShenzhenexchangeisalsointheworks.Aspartofmakingtheyuanamoreglobalcurrency,Chinaisalsoopeningitsbondmarkettoinstitutionalinvestors.未來幾年多個(gè)方面都可能會(huì)發(fā)生巨變。監(jiān)管當(dāng)局已為外資投資股票開放了新渠道，在上海證交所和香港證交所之間建立了互通機(jī)制;深交所也在準(zhǔn)備實(shí)現(xiàn)另外一個(gè)互通機(jī)制。為了讓人民幣更加國際化，中國還向海外機(jī)構(gòu)投資者開放了其債券市場。Andsomeforeignbankswantabiggerfoothold,believingthatChina'sgrowthprospectsoutweighitsrisks.InternationalbanklendingtoChineseresidentsinmid-2015amountedto$1.2trillion,closetoanall-timehighandmorethanthreetimesthe2010figure,accordingtotheBankforInternationalSettlements.HSBC,thebiggestforeignbankinChina,consideredshiftingitsglobalheadquarterstoHongKongearlierthisyear,thoughintheendstayedputinLondon.EventhosefirmsthatwanttoinsulatethemselvesfromChinawillfinditdifficulttoresistt