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Migration,Searchand
SkillHeterogeneity
MyrtoOikonomou
WP/23/136
IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchin
progressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedto
elicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.
TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersare
thoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarily
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orIMFmanagement.
2023
JUN
*TheauthorwouldliketothankAndreaFerrero,HarrisDellasandFrancescoZanettifortheirinsightfulcommentsandguidance.ThispaperhasbenefitedgreatlyfromcommentsfromPetrSedlacekMichaelMcMahon,RomainDuval,EvgeniaVella,DanielaHauser,FilipposPetroulakis,RobertZymekandtheIMFAFRDepartment’sResearchAdvisoryGroup.IthasalsobenefitedfromthewarmhospitalityandconversationswitheconomistsattheDanishNationalBank,theFederalReserveBankofSaintLouisandtheIMFRESStructuralandClimatePoliciesworkshop.
?2023InternationalMonetaryFund
WP/23/136
IMFWorkingPaper
AfricanDepartment
Migration,SearchandSkillHeterogeneity
PreparedbyMyrtoOikonomou*
AuthorizedfordistributionbyMercedesVeraMartin
June2023
IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.
ABSTRACT:Cross-bordermigrationcanactasanimportantadjustmentmechanismtocountry-specificshocks.Yet,dependingonwhomoves,itcanhaveunintendedconsequencesforbusinesscyclestability.Thispaperarguesthattheskillcompositionofmigrationplaysacriticalrole.Whenmigrationflowsbecomemoreconcentratedinskilledlaboranimportanttrade-offarises.Ontheonehand,migrationreleasesunemploymentpressuresfortheorigincountries.Ontheotherhand,itgeneratesnegativecompositionaleffects(theso-called“braindrain”effects)andskillimbalances,whichreducesupplycapacityinorigincountries.Thispaperanalysesquantitativelytheimpactofcyclicalmigrationinanopen-economyDynamicStochasticGeneralEquilibrium(DSGE)modelwithendogenousmigrationflows,tradelinkages,searchandmatchingfrictions,andskillheterogeneity.IapplythisframeworktothecaseoftheGreekemigrationwavefollowingtheEuropeanDebtCrisis.WhatIfindisthatemigrationflowsimpliedstrongnegativeeffectsforcapitalformation,leadingtomorethana15percentagepointdropininvestment.RatherthanstabilizingtheGreekbusinesscycle,labormobilityledtoadeeperandmoreprotractedrecession.
RECOMMENDEDCITATION:MyrtoOikonomou,2023,Migration,SearchandSkillHeterogeneity,IMFWorkingPaperWP/23/136
JELClassificationNumbers:E22,E32,F41,J24
Keywords:Migration;MatchingFrictions;SkillHeterogeneity
Author’sE-MailAddress:moikonomou@
Migration,SearchandSkillHeterogeneity
MyrtoOikonomou*
June1,2023
Abstract
Cross-bordermigrationcanactasanimportantadjustmentmechanismtocountry-specificshocks.Yet,dependingonwhomoves,itcanhaveunintendedconsequencesforbusinesscyclestability.Thispaperarguesthattheskillcompositionofmigrationplaysacriticalrole.Whenmigrationflowsbecomemoreconcentratedinskilledlaboranimportanttrade-offarises.Ontheonehand,migrationreleasesunemploymentpres-suresfortheorigincountries.Ontheotherhand,itgeneratesnegativecompositionaleffects(theso-called“braindrain”effects)andskillimbalances,whichreducesupplycapacityinorigincountries.Thispaperanalysesquantitativelytheimpactofcycli-calmigrationinanopen-economyDynamicStochasticGeneralEquilibrium(DSGE)modelwithendogenousmigrationflows,tradelinkages,searchandmatchingfrictions,andskillheterogeneity.IapplythisframeworktothecaseoftheGreekemigrationwavefollowingtheEuropeanDebtCrisis.WhatIfindisthatemigrationflowsimpliedstrongnegativeeffectsforcapitalformation,leadingtomorethana15percentagepointdropininvestment.RatherthanstabilizingtheGreekbusinesscycle,labormobilityledtoadeeperandmoreprotractedrecession.
JELCodes:E22,E32,F41,J24
Keywords:Migration,MatchingFrictions,SkillHeterogeneity
*Email:moikonomou@.TheauthorwouldliketothankAndreaFerrero,HarrisDellasandFrancescoZanettifortheirinsightfulcommentsandguidance.ThispaperhasbenefitedgreatlyfromcommentsfromPetrSedlacekMichaelMcMahon,RomainDuval,EvgeniaVella,DanielaHauser,Filip-posPetroulakis,RobertZymekandtheIMFAFRDepartment’sResearchAdvisoryGroup.IthasalsobenefitedfromthewarmhospitalityandconversationswitheconomistsattheDanishNationalBank,theFederalReserveBankofSaintLouisandtheIMFRESStructuralandClimatePoliciesworkshop.
1
Contents
1Introduction
3
2RelatedLiterature
6
3TheModel
8
3.1ModelOverview
8
3.2laborMarkets
9
3.3Households
11
3.4Production
14
3.4.1FinalGoodFirms
14
3.4.2IntermediateGoodFirm
15
3.5MarketClearing
17
4Calibration
19
5QuantitativeAnalysis
23
5.1Theamplifyingroleofmigration
23
5.2Wholeavesmatters
26
6Conclusion
29
References
30
AAppendix
30
A.1AdditionalFigures
30
A.2ModelEquations
31
A.3Results
34
ListofFigures
1Emigrationflows,evolutionofsizeandskillcomposition
4
2ModelOverview
9
3ImpulseResponseFunctionstoanegativerisk–premiumshock
24
4ImpulseResponseFunctionstoanegativerisk–premiumshock
25
5ImpulseResponseFunctionstoanegativerisk–premiumshock
26
6DataandImpulseResponseFunctionstoanegativerisk–premiumshock
27
3
1Introduction
The2010SovereignDebtCrisisexposedtheEuroAreatoasevereasymmetricshock,leadingtodivergentmacroeconomicbehaviourbetweentheEuropeancoreandperipherycountrymembers.Againstthebackdropofmountingborrowingcosts,aseveredeteriora-tionofthelabormarketconditionsandasteepdropineconomicactivity,thecapacityofEuropeanperipherycountriestoemploycountercyclicalmacroeconomictoolswaslimited.Theabsenceoftheoptiontodevaluatenationalcurrenciesremovedanimportantadjust-mentmechanism.Atthesametime,theausteritymeasuresimposedinseveralSouthernEuropeancountriesmeantthatnationalfiscalpolicyhadlimitedspaceformanoeuvring.Againstlimitedalternativeadjustmentmechanisms,cross-borderemigrationflowsfromtheEuropeanperipherytocorecountriessurged(Figure1,a).
1
However,contrarytopreviousmigrationwaves,thisonewascharacterisedbyasignificantshiftintheskill-contentoflaborflows(Figure1,b).
Canmigrationindeedstabilisethebusinesscycleoforigincountries?Howdoestheskillcompositionofmigrationflowsimpacttheshock–absorbingcapacityofmigration?ThispapersetsouttoaddressthesequestionsthroughthelensofasmallopeneconomyDynamicStochasticGeneral-Equilibrium(DSGE)model.Themainfindingisthatthenatureofmigrationflowsintermsofskillsisimportantforthestabilisingroleofmigration.Contrarytoconventionalwisdom,migrationcanhaveadestabilisingimpactonthebusinesscycleduetoadverseeffectsontheincentivesforcapitalaccumulationandonsupplycapacity.
Labormobilityhasbeenidentifiedasakeyadjustmentmechanismtoasymmetricshocksinthecontextofcurrencyunions,anditisoneofthepreconditionsforanoptimalcurrencyareaaccordingtotheseminalworkof
Mundell
(
1961
).Whentherelativefactorpricesandthenominalexchangeratecannotadjustinresponsetoidiosyncraticshocks,mobilityofproductionfactorsoffersanalternative.Cross-borderlabormobilityinpartic-ularcanstabiliselabormarketconditionsinthecountryhitbytheidiosyncraticshock.Emigrationendogenouslyreducesthepoolofunemployedtherebymitigatingtheincreaseinunemploymentratesandthenegativewagepressureindomesticlabormarkets.Addi-tionally,cross-bordermigrationallowsconsumptionsmoothingthroughremittances,whichcanactasarisk-sharingdevice.
2
Inmanyways,theincreaseinemigrationfromperiphery
1ForthecaseofGreece,thecountrythatexperiencedthedeepestandmostprotractedrecession,emigra-tionflowsresultedinmorethan7percentofactivepopulationexitingthecountrybetween2010and2015(
Bandeiraetal.
,
2022
).ForSpain,emigrationflowswereunprecedentedaswell,amountingtooutflowscloseto1percentoftotalpopulationover2010–14(
Izquierdoetal.
,
2016
).
2However,weshouldnotethatremittancesareofminorquantitativesignificanceforSouthernEuropean
4
countriesduringtheSovereignDebtcrisiscanbecharacterisedasaMundellianautomaticstabiliser.Yet,thisanalysisofcyclicalmigrationoverlooksanimportantfactor:skillhet-erogeneity.GrossmigrationflowsfromtheEuroAreaperipherytocorecountriesmaskimportantheterogeneityintermsoftheeducationalprofileofemigrants,whichshiftedintherecentmigrationwave.
3
Figure1:Emigrationflows,evolutionofsizeandskillcomposition
Notes:Panel(a)plotsgrossemigrationflowsfromEuropeanperipherycountriesasashareoftotalworkingagepopulation(years15-64).Panel(b)plotsimmigrationflowsfromEuropeanperiphery(Ireland,Greece,Spain,ItalyandPortugal)toGermany.Skillclassificationisviaeducationalattainment(ISCEDlevel5andabove).Thesampleiscontrolledforworkingageatyearofentry(years25-64toaccountforeducation-relatedmigration).
Source:Eurostat,GermanMicrocensusandauthor’scalculations.
Withheterogeneouslaborflows,cross-countrymigrationchangesnotonlythesizeoftheworkforceintheorigincountrybutalsoitsskillcomposition.Inthispaper,Iarguethattheresultingskillimbalancescanhaveanegativeimpactonfirms’investmentdecisionsleadingtolowereconomicactivityandreversingthecushioningeffectofmigration.Toquantifytheeffectsofcyclicalmigration,IbuildaDSGEmodelwhichfeaturestwotypesofhousehold(highandlowskilled),andexplicitlyaccountsforthecompositional(“braindrain”)effectsofmigration.Themodelhasthreekeyfrictions.Firstly,searchandmatching
countries.BasedonWorldBankdata,theaverageshareofremittancesoverGDPfor2010-15was0.82percentfortheEuropeanSouth.Forcomparison,theworldaverageoverthesameperiodwas4.7percent,asthisinsurancemechanismplaysamuchmoreprominentrolefordevelopingandfrontiereconomies.
3ForthecaseofGreece,
LabrianidisandPratsinakis
(
2016
)reportthatapproximately65percentoftotalmigrationoutflowspost2010werehighlyeducatedgraduates.Thesefindingsareconfirmedbyownresearch.BasedonLFSandpopulationregistrydatafromtheGermanmicrocensusandtheDanishstatisticaloffice,IfindashiftintheskillcontentofbothimmigrantflowsandstocksfromtheEuropeanperipherytoGermanyandDenmarkrespectively.Whiletherisingeducationalattainmentinorigincountriescanpartiallyoffsetthenegativecompositionaleffectsofemigration,thegrowthofhigh-skilledemigrationoutpaceddramaticallytheincreaseintertiaryeducateddomesticworkforce(seeAppendix).
5
frictionswhichgenerateequilibriumunemploymentandareasymmetricamongthetwotypesofworkers.Secondly,amigrationchoicewhichendogenouslychangesoverthebusinesscycledependingonrelativelabormarketconditionsinoriginanddestinationcountriesandmobilitycostswhichdifferacrossthetwohouseholds.Thirdly,capital-skillcomplementaritiesintheproductionfunction,whichintroducealinkbetweencapitaldemandandtheskillcontentofthelaborforce.
IapplythisframeworktothecaseofGreece,focusingontheemigrationwaveduringtheSovereignDebtcrisis.Ifindthat,forrealisticdegreesofcapitalskillcomplementarityintheproductiontechnology,skill-specificlaborshortagesduetomigrationoutflowshadasignificantnegativeeffectoncapitalaccumulationandproduction.Comparingthebaselinescenariotoacounterfactualscenarioofnomigration,theoutputtroughislowerbymorethan7percentagepoints,theinvestmenttroughbymorethan15percentagepoints,andconsumption,despiteaninitiallysmallerdrop(duetotherisk-sharingeffectsofmigration),exhibitsatroughwhichisalmost5percentagepointslower.
Theinteractionbetweenlabormarketexternalities,duetosearchfrictions,andcapital-skillcomplementarities,iscrucialforthisresult.Capital-skillcomplementarityre-ducestheincentiveoffirmstoinvestincapitalwhenemigrationflowsareskewedtowardsthehighlyskilled.Ifcapitalismoreproductivewhencoupledwithskilledlabor,thenalowerstockofskilledworkerswillreducethereturnsoninvestment.Thedropincapitaldemandismagnifiedduetosearchfrictionsandtheheterogeneousmobilitycostsamongthetwoskilltypes.Skilledhouseholdsfacelowermobilitycostsresultinginrelativelymoreskilledunem-ployeddirectingtheirsearchabroad.Asaresult,markettightnessfortheskilledincreasesandtheeffectivecostsofskilledvacanciesgoup.Firms’incentivetopostskilledvacanciesaremutedfurtheramplifyingthereductionincapitaldemand.Thecombinedeffectoflowertotallaborsupplyandlowerrelativeshareofskilledlaborsupplyduetomigrationgeneratesasharpandpersistentdropinoutputandexacerbatesratherthandampenstherecessionaryshock.
Thispaperproceedsasfollows.Section2brieflydiscussestherelatedliterature.Section3presentsthemodelandSection4presentsthecalibrationstrategy.Section5continueswiththequantitativeanalysisofthemodelandsection6concludes.
6
2RelatedLiterature
Thispaperrelatestotwostrandsofliterature.Firstly,itcontributestotheliteratureoncyclicalmigration.Followingtheincreaseofintra-EuroAreamigrationflows,therehasbeengrowingacademicinterestinstudyinghowmigrationmattersforthebusinesscycledynamicsofEuroAreacountries,aswellasformonetaryandfiscalpolicy.Thepaperthatistheclosesttomystudyis
Bandeiraetal.
(
2022
).Similarlytothepresentpaper,theauthorslookatGreekoutflowsinasmallopeneconomymodelthatcombinessearchandmatchingfrictionsandendogenouslabormobility,butwithadifferentfocus.Theauthorsexaminethelinkbetweenfiscalausterityandmigrationanduncoveranovelbi-directionalrelationship.Fiscalconsolidations,especiallywhenconductedthroughlabortaxhikesintensifyemigration.Inturn,emigrationreducesthetaxbaseattheorigincountryandleadstohigherandmorepersistentconsolidationsinordertomeetgivenfiscaltargets.Eventhoughtheinteractionbetweenmigrationandfiscalpolicyishighlyimportant,ourstudyabstractsfromthisdimension.Itintroducesheterogeneityinmigrationflowsandfocusesonthecompositionaleffectsofmigrationdueto“brain-drain”.
Thispaperisalsorelatedto
Houseetal.
(
2018
).TheauthorsprovideempiricalevidencethatEuropeannetmigration,inlinewiththepredictionsofMundell’sframe-work,respondedstronglytothegrowingcross-countryunemploymentdifferentialsduringtheSovereignDebtcrisis.Theauthorsestimateamulti-countryDSGEmodelthatfeaturesfrictionallabormarketsandinternalmigration.Theyfindthatlabormobilityiseffectiveinreducingcross-countryunemploymentandpercapitaGDPdifferentialsandcansubstituteindependentmonetarypolicyindeliveringthenecessaryadjustment.
Inanotherrelatedpaper,
HauserandSeneca
(
2022
)studytheimplicationsoflabormobilityforthemonetaryauthoritiesofacurrencyunion.Theauthorsbuildatwo-regionDSGEmodelwithstickypricesandmarketinefficiencies.Theyfindthatmigrationbyen-dogenouslystabilisingregionallabormarketconditionscaneasetheunemployment–inflationtradeoffofthemonetarypolicymaker.Theyalsostudytheimplicationsofinternalmigra-tionforoptimalmonetarypolicyandarguethatinthepresenceoflabormobility,strictinflationtargetingissuboptimalwhereasahigherweightonlabormarketdevelopmentsinthepolicyruleiswelfare-improving.
Cyclicalmigrationanditsimpactondestinationcountrieshasalsogainedincreasingacademicinterest.
Lozej
(
2019
)studytheeffectsofapositivemigrationshockinaDSGEmodelwithfrictionallabormarketsthatiscalibratedtotheIrisheconomy.Similarlyto
7
thisstudy,hefindsthatmigrationamplifiesbusinesscyclefluctuationstocountry-specificshocks.
SmithandThoenissen
(
2019
)addressasimilarquestionfocusingontheNewZealandeconomy.TheauthorsestimateanopeneconomyDSGEmodelwithphysicalcapital,humancapitalandhousing.Akeyfindingoftheirpaperisthatthedifferencesinhumancapitallevelsbetweenmigrantsandlocalsarecriticalforthebusinesscycleimpactofmigration.Thisresultisconsistentwiththefindingsofthispaper.However,differentlyto
Smithand
Thoenissen
(
2019
),thispaperfocusesonanorigincountryandexplicitlyaccountsfortheinterplaybetweensearchfrictionsandthecompositionaleffectsofmigration.
Therehavealsobeenseveralempiricalstudiesthatassesstheimpactofmigrationshocks.
FurlanettoandRobstad
(
2019
)useNorwegiandatainastructuralVectorAutore-gressive(VAR)model,andfindevidencethatmigrationshocksareanimportantdriverofunemploymentdynamics,leadingtolowerunemploymentratesforboththenativeandthetotalpopulation.Inasimilarvein,
Maffei-FaccioliandVella
(
2021
)userecentdataonnetmigrationfromGermany,andfindthatmigrationshockshadanexpansionaryeffectoninvestment,outputpercapita,netexportsandtaxrevenues.Theauthorsalsoreportdif-ferentialimpactofmigrationshocksonnativeandimmigrantunemployment.Theyreportthatnetmigrationshockshadapositiveeffectonjobcreation,drivingdownunemploymentfornativesbutincreasingcompetitionforimmigrantworkersandsubsequentlycausingtheirunemploymentratetoincrease.
Thesecondstrandofliteraturethatouranalysisrelatestoisresearchoncapital-skillcomplementarities.Griliches(1969)statedthehypothesisthatcapitalislesssubstitutableforskilledlaborthanforunskilledlabor,andfollowinghisseminalworkseveralstudieshavefoundsupportingempiricalevidenceinfavourofthishypothesis.
Kruselletal.
(
2000
)usedU.S.datatoestimateamoregeneralproductionfunctionthatallowedforcapital-skillcomplementarities,andfoundthatcapitalequipmentismorecomplementarywithskilledlaborthanunskilledlabor.TheyalsoshowedthatthishypothesisiscriticalinordertoexplainthepatternofskillpremiaintheUSeconomy.Inrelatedwork,
Maliaretal.
(
2022
)testedthecapital-skillcomplementarityhypothesisextendingthedatasetin
Kruselletal.
(
2000
)toincludemorerecentdata(over1993–17)andconfirmedtheoriginalfindings.
Severalstudieshavetestedthecapital-skillcomplementarityhypothesisforEuropeancountriesaswell.
Lindquist
(
2005
)usesSwedishdataandfindsthatsimilarlyto
Krusell
etal.
(
2000
),skilledlaborandcapitalequipmentarecomplementaryfactorinputs,whereasunskilledlaborandcapitalequipmentaresubstitutesforoneanother.
Batista
(
2007
)teststhishypothesisforthecaseofthePortugueseeconomyandalsofindsevidenceinfavourof
8
capital-skillcomplementarityintheaggregateproductiontechnology.Usingacross-sectionalpanel(thatincludesGreeceandseveralotherEuroAreacountries)
Duffyetal.
(
2004
)alsofindsomesupportinfavourofthecapital-skillcomplementarityhypothesis,althoughtheirevidenceisweakerthancountry-specificstudiesandtherequiredthresholdforskilledlaborislowercomparedto
Kruselletal.
(
2000
).
Inastudythatrelatestothispaper,
Doladoetal.
(
2021
)embedthecapital-skillcomplementarityframeworkinaclosedeconomyNewKeynesianmodelwithsearchandmatchingfrictions,inordertostudythedistributionaleffectsofmonetarypolicy.Thispaperfollowsasimilarmodellingapproachbutinanopeneconomymodelthatfeatureschangesintheskillcompositionofthedomesticworkforceduetoheterogeneousmigrationflows.
3TheModel
3.1ModelOverview
Ibuildasmallopeneconomymodelwhichfeaturestwotypesofhousehold(highandlowskilled),searchandmatchingfrictionsandendogenousmigration.Acombinationoflocationpreferencesandapecuniarycosttomigratemicro-foundsmigrationflows.Theproductiontechnologyischaracterizedbycapital-skillcomplementarity,asin
Kruselletal.
(
2000
).Themodelalsofeaturesaremittancechannel,tradelinks,investmentadjustmentcostsandrealrigiditiesinordertocaptureempiricallyrelevantfeaturesofthebusinesscycledynamics.Thesemodellingchoicesallowmetostudytheaggregateanddistributionalimpactofemigrationinaunifiedway.Figure2illustratesthekeyfeaturesofthemodel.
9
Figure2:ModelOverview
3.2laborMarkets
Thesmallopeneconomy(henceforthSOE)ispopulatedbytwohouseholdtypes.Typeh,whichsupplieshigh–skilledlabor,andtypel,whichsupplieslow–skilledlabor.IassumethatthemassofeachhouseholdtypestaysconstantandIdenotewithMitherespectivemeasureofhouseholdtypei,fori∈h,l.
4
Ialsoassumethattheskilltypeofeachhouseholdmemberisfixed(thereisnotransitioningacrossthedifferenthouseholds)andthatmarketsaresegmented.Thetotalpopulationmassisnormalisedtoone,i.e.,對i∈{h,l}Mi=1.Atanypointintime,therearethreedifferentlabormarketstatusthatahouseholdmembercanoccupy:employmentathomeNt,employmentabroadNt,andunemploymentUi,t.
Mi,t=Nt+Nt+Ui,t,i∈{h,l}.(1)
Unemployedworkerscanchoosewheretosearch.Ashareμi,tofthestockofunemployed,Ui,t,choosetosearchabroad,whiletheremainingsearchinthedomesticmarket.Akeyassumptionisthatunemployedmembers“searchfromhome”followingempiricalevidenceinsupportofremotesearch(
Re
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