時間序列預(yù)測培訓(xùn)講義

第八章時間序列預(yù)測什么是時間序列預(yù)測時間序列預(yù)測的常用方法時間序列預(yù)測法的優(yōu)缺點分析8.1時間序列預(yù)測的概述時間序列預(yù)測的概念時間序列預(yù)測的原理與依據(jù)8.1.1時間序列預(yù)測的概念時間序列預(yù)測法是一種定量分析方法，它是在時間序列變量分析的基礎(chǔ)上，運用一定的數(shù)學(xué)方法建立預(yù)測模型，使時間趨勢向外延伸，從而預(yù)測未來市場的發(fā)展變化趨勢，確定變量預(yù)測值。時間序列預(yù)測法也叫歷史延伸法或外推法。時間序列預(yù)測法的基本特點是：假定事物的過去趨勢會延伸到未來；預(yù)測所依據(jù)的數(shù)據(jù)具有不規(guī)則性；撇開了市場發(fā)展之間的因果關(guān)系。8補.都1呼.擺2晴時晴間確序允列奔預(yù)賺測配的斃原躍理溉與運依滿據(jù)時責(zé)間渾序已列甘是疏指錯同嬌一簡變強量翠按銹事版件跌發(fā)敢生艇的多先答后咸順眠序撤排乎列搖起款來廳的恒一扛組年觀健察遺值挖或饑記腎錄翼值加。蒜構(gòu)碌成售時棕間堡序筑列左的命要先素叨有黎兩嗓個劣：春其響一筆是枝時豈間毀，岔其梅二柱是揭與糟時剃間夠相豬對敲應(yīng)失的券變謝量查水斧平探。煤實醉際故數(shù)牙據(jù)站的棉時跟間嶄序晨列能趙夠灑展暴示券研燒究頑對蜓象燒在知一銀定杠時曾期充內(nèi)蛾的嘩發(fā)榮展脂變拌化惰趨緣瑞勢強與蔽規(guī)魚律，亮因歐而忙可猾以類從光時粘間博序告列宮中紐奉找姨出拖變劑量遙變著化旱的靈特約征膛、被趨唐勢融以巾及鋼發(fā)畏展袋規(guī)永律變，杏從怨而膽對買變自量蛛的蹲未踢來對變心化列進(jìn)液行尋有織效幸地活預(yù)鏈測執(zhí)。時脫間標(biāo)序艘列捧的變距動悔形桶態(tài)一誼般迎分瞎為肯四還種明：討長悔期跌趨賢勢渠變芬動昏，綢季捐節(jié)尤變勝動勢，飛循匪環(huán)纖變但動煌，本不絲式規(guī)紗則湊變依動間。8穴.確2用平絮均漿數(shù)窯預(yù)首測平扶均聯(lián)數(shù)鉤預(yù)丟測夏是碎最漁簡監(jiān)單展的顛定拋量鍋預(yù)猛測睬方啄法綢。桐平霧均橋數(shù)陷預(yù)厘測唐法喪的網(wǎng)運腔算放過祖程躲簡元單隔，棒常墾在膜市議場帝的晃近債期準(zhǔn)、待短糕期傻預(yù)休測擺中孫使慌用葬。最切常萬用爺?shù)脑雌津?qū)均著數(shù)妙預(yù)品測躁法碌有促：簡熊單寄算鴿術(shù)窯平畢均蟲數(shù)嗎法加爹權(quán)鹿算雨術(shù)呼平秤均鳴數(shù)稀法幾是何喬平饑均拌數(shù)部法8依.廉2天.高1草簡成單鳥算廟術(shù)劇平詢均豎數(shù)加法這（露1惜）簡犁單草平瘋均燒數(shù)宅法祖是念用首一半定題觀位察渾期妖內(nèi)喊預(yù)叛測壤目辱標(biāo)獲的窯時苗間菠序閑列罪的搏各書期慶數(shù)逢據(jù)社的賞簡卸單哈平云均縫數(shù)綿作內(nèi)為腥預(yù)罩測什期狠的竄預(yù)爆測傳值貿(mào)的江預(yù)親測攝方潤法課。在圣簡慎單察平越均殖數(shù)枕法弦中眼，上極宰差暖越范小金、選方撞差和越御小皆，盲簡除單彈平擁均仿數(shù)紡作煤為立預(yù)載測避值姓的糾代睡表壁性火越激好泊。簡顧單禮平塊均想數(shù)義法巨的繪預(yù)大測傻模將型擋是調(diào)：8趣.蠅2抵.浴1挺簡暖單控算姿術(shù)趁平搬均家數(shù)違法型（兔2僑）例觀察期123456預(yù)測值觀察值10501080103010701050106010578籮.遇2爬.詳2乞加緒權(quán)脅算順術(shù)櫻平蛙均杯數(shù)涉法確（查1聞）加援權(quán)甘算澡術(shù)春平貌均占數(shù)拒法裝是島簡顛單宿算撈術(shù)衣平昏均赴數(shù)甘法旱的文改滾進(jìn)顯。夫它腎根榴據(jù)潮觀常察字期獻(xiàn)各丹個爺時埋間芝序恭列扁數(shù)聚據(jù)惜的奏重憲要拼程岡度粱，暴分申別名對拜各桶個盜數(shù)夜據(jù)軌進(jìn)乞行笛加贏權(quán)伍，危以煮加音權(quán)居平則均義數(shù)餡作粒為走下伙期悅的輛預(yù)強測壯值藝。對服于羨離辰預(yù)度測篩期叨越絞近廚的鞋數(shù)妻據(jù)買，陷可抄以賢賦斑予禍越磚大位的湯權(quán)冷重迅。加國權(quán)無算警術(shù)敞平單均仍數(shù)維法古的島預(yù)房誠測側(cè)模鞠型謎是退：8驚.闖2境.嚷2籠加錘權(quán)抗算攏術(shù)跪平欄均膠數(shù)伐法惜（尿2驗）例觀察期123456預(yù)測值觀察值1050108010301070105010601056權(quán)重(w)0.10.10.150.150.20.38假.這2忽.仿3丘幾去何衡平嫁均棄數(shù)索法捏（社1籠）幾秘何德平貞均指數(shù)沖法燒是捐以扮一虛定們觀沃察喝期丑內(nèi)饒預(yù)攀測袍目歷標(biāo)胃的良時釀間穴序起列業(yè)的怎幾格何鉆平監(jiān)均鞭數(shù)慌作首為餡某稱個潛未趨來踏時苗期挽的因預(yù)肆測未值愚的京預(yù)首測繪方炕法板。幾虜何紅平貓均俊數(shù)披法鴿一怨般香用皺于嗎觀擱察斬期與有虧顯側(cè)著統(tǒng)長氧期熱變廊動替趨圾勢伙的郊預(yù)書測兵。幾安何鏈平諒均男數(shù)斥法只的宋預(yù)擇測化模鍋型盈是較：8境.腦2慢.芽3喝幾律何勝平據(jù)均侵?jǐn)?shù)逝法獅（弓2封）例具（死本送例朽中劉幾笑何委平勝均賠增娃長瘡速岸度松為皺3挪.酸8趙7恐%。）觀察期01234567預(yù)測值觀察值115012101290136013801415147015001558環(huán)比速度--105.2106.6105.4101.5102.5103.9102.08兼.須3蠻移厚動蘇平燥均罩?jǐn)?shù)牙預(yù)態(tài)測移亞動技平拉均萌法上根唐據(jù)供時勁間舉序煙列再逐準(zhǔn)項竟移藥動進(jìn)，籮依鼠次互計汗算貼包蒜含戶一蹦定瓜項池數(shù)凱的往平最均五數(shù)烏，鐵形蓋成漠平克均雀數(shù)釘時謹(jǐn)間遲序照列魚，醒并俊據(jù)展此套對荷預(yù)餓測舉對艙象威進(jìn)屋行域預(yù)邀測斤。移箏動您平飄均焦可獅以盯消鎖除托或怖減菜少主時副間扣序遭列非數(shù)敞據(jù)磁受調(diào)偶孕然列性歡因編素拆干浪擾紫而蜂產(chǎn)闊生撐的畝隨鍋機(jī)草變簡動滲影縮慧響墳。移貞動銅平循均鵲法咸在芒短縣期提預(yù)籃測福中督較吧準(zhǔn)艇確威，告長娃期祖預(yù)魚測瞧中淡效姥果拋較派差何。移壇動傘平弊均產(chǎn)法艷可言以業(yè)分神為昌：一估次感移政動滴平賽均冶法二遲次啟移桐動腦平野均鹽法8嫩.茄3閥.斑1一競次螺移蜂動割平蘋均摸法豬（枕1勉）一雙次酬移輪動柿平票均筋法駕適石用怖于裳具器有從明吳顯下線何性針趨憤勢收的躬時幫間家序縣列感數(shù)張據(jù)給的掏預(yù)笛測膀。一保次帳移為動繭平剩均隨法攻只州能判用免來拴對舟下蘭一果期勸進(jìn)僑行微預(yù)投測憶，膝不都能腹用同于快長因期嗓預(yù)釣測欲。必拜須汗選紗擇柜合凳理嗎的球移博動崇跨結(jié)期販，趣跨妖期歪越筍大成對粘預(yù)窄測瞧的檢平遇滑骨影怒響概也訊越浴大懂，意移磨動呆平文均扭數(shù)棗滯明后也于擱實甚際左數(shù)掉據(jù)門的敘偏喊差炸也愁越淘大錯。舉跨速期碧太覽小制則汁又坦不麗能斃有大效胸消拴除芳偶宏然齊因植素暫的豎影胞響光。錢跨撞期墊取窩值職可誼在磨3嘴~諷2露0踢間諒選吉取蒼。8歲.調(diào)3銳.風(fēng)1一耍次餃移土動避平佳均主法襖（坐2組）一睛次掌移素動哪平公均冰數(shù)巴的付計黃算林公舍式員如搞下冊：8嚷.再3講.賭1一蘿次津移駕動場平財均柳法劫（主3拖）例觀察年份時序?qū)嶋H觀察值Mt(1)(n=4)199113819922451993335199444941.75199557049.75199664349.25199774652.00199885553.50199994547.252000106552.752001116457.252002124354.258轉(zhuǎn).稀3紀(jì).太2二誤次驗移榜動希平超均血法植（港1治）二乞次塑移吵動雀平占均跨法究是苦對際一辭次捧移認(rèn)動閉平風(fēng)均細(xì)數(shù)殊再幸次滲進(jìn)怕行瘦移軋動幼平駱均艘，軋并鍋在鵝兩熄次賀移妨動趕平伶均敞的危基碧礎(chǔ)稈上聞建歪立啄預(yù)踢測老模泥型棉對荷預(yù)蟲測健對酒象施進(jìn)際行爺預(yù)垮測劉。二提次繞移國動研平亦均加法聯(lián)與敏一脹次壓移顆動悉平沃均刪法寺相屯比道，日其哨優(yōu)素點月是尤大竊大符減處少叢了餅滯福后劑偏牢差證，估使樣預(yù)顛測遵準(zhǔn)歪確絹性董提潤高其。二慘次盤移爪動也平芳均挑只片適宗用捏于獵短呆期脫預(yù)乒測御。能而鵲且頸只去用錢于塘的批情向形伯。8歸.水3茂.筑2二況次尸移烈動生平庸均毫法騎（砌2燥）二鋪次私移保動雖平因均盯法策的慎預(yù)津測拜模改型含如孫下預(yù)：8焦.逼3普.來2二職次亡移鋒動獸平曬均退法么（宋3除）例觀察年份時序?qū)嶋H觀察值Mt(1)(n=4)Mt(2)(n=4)199113819922451993335199444941.75199557049.75199664349.25199774652.0048.19199885553.50512550.502000106552.7551.382001116457.2552.692002124354.2552.888碧.傳3董.乒2二犧次妥移越動答平薯均養(yǎng)法濃（虜4棄）根吳據(jù)墓模叢型練計雪算將得棚到8臟.英4外指玻數(shù)偶平護(hù)滑扔法更預(yù)巾測指慰數(shù)膊平覺滑抱法級來工自攻于濟(jì)移票動帖平扮均情法功，曲是孟一側(cè)次撫移漿動忘平敬均頂法擦的滔延袖伸前。步指斃數(shù)豪平旱滑句法矩是脹對死時劇間芝數(shù)逃據(jù)決給塑予楚加楊工雅平紙滑匹，首從少而哈獲賭得采其洞變逃化辭規(guī)觀律怒與犁趨喪勢霜。根絡(luò)據(jù)京平桐滑露次訪數(shù)勸的跟不括同鼠，擾指睛數(shù)志平雖滑瓣法澆可偶以駐分慶為五：一莖次侮指瘦數(shù)鋒平挽滑劍法二宮次俘指烤數(shù)杠平皇滑陪法三規(guī)次凍指輪數(shù)逆平次滑訴法8業(yè).普4贊.虹1一仙次疲指災(zāi)數(shù)現(xiàn)平芬滑報法改（雀1抵）公坦式辦：基儲本午計性算定公油式一蛇次莊指良數(shù)虧平儉滑覺預(yù)有測舅模備型當(dāng)竭時摩間擔(dān)序愧列稱數(shù)喂據(jù)翠大惡于螺5料0組時另，梁初晌始權(quán)值襯S0(瞧1缺)對勇St(著1螞)計雜算末結(jié)都果棍影拼響墳極腹小蠢，激可蒜以復(fù)設(shè)賽定論為敵x1；孔當(dāng)釀時撇間便序天列路數(shù)微據(jù)浙小既于碎5暗0領(lǐng)時只，狗初好始攤值絲式S0(聾1鍵)對每St(塌1炭)計槍算捏結(jié)信果魯影傾響逃較借大拍，惜應(yīng)莊取慨前便幾桃項螺的媽平竭均蟲值齡。8諸.倒4壟.針1一寇次剃指紋數(shù)解平馳滑援法讓（顯2賣）例慕（昆,映S0(紀(jì)1倆)取駕為璃前叼三察項般的景平軟均魄值賣）時序12345678910111213銷售量10158201016182022242026St(1)1110.512.810.415.212.614.316.218.120.122.021.023.58民.構(gòu)4萌.胞2二辰次逆指視數(shù)造平泛滑餅法風(fēng)（鈴1算）二腐次究指歉數(shù)參平捎滑找的鍋計趴算律公鴿式預(yù)叫測專的若數(shù)茄學(xué)蛋模欲型8待.起4咐.彎2二吼次目指逝數(shù)克平鋼滑安法螞（吐2漸）例與：掏有蚊關(guān)己數(shù)濃據(jù)衫的禿計啊算燙見盼下真表楊()珍。鹽根冠據(jù)愁例壯中察數(shù)領(lǐng)據(jù)牲，底有觀察年份時序觀察值St(1)St(2)199614041.53442.655199724745.90645.256199835653.98152.236199946562.79660.684200057068.55966.984200167573.71272.366200278280.34278.7478梢.炒4桑.貝3三責(zé)次禮指少數(shù)票平彩滑含法沖（胡1歉）當(dāng)保時嫌間班序夜列琴為惰非綱線殖性飲增里長域時壯，為一效次鴿指秒數(shù)乓平煎滑映與彈二濱次惹指晉數(shù)裂平姑滑集都核將赴失樹去庭有挑效繪性殘；射此洋時裂需華要睬使波用透三脂次蛇指般數(shù)找平勒滑便法嬸。三振次棕指茂數(shù)棟平畜滑胸法戒建雕立驢的箱模朋型匪是踩拋娛物升線鼠模蘆型山。三霸次葉指怖數(shù)浪平員滑劍的崖計碑算恐公夸式謀是誤：8任.悄4廈.箭3三按次販指稱數(shù)腸平團(tuán)滑知法營（營2廚）三熟次橋指村數(shù)博平污滑逆法運的芒數(shù)進(jìn)學(xué)薦預(yù)押測獅模草型辯：8催.烤5掏趨摘勢致法勉預(yù)合測分揉割公平抖均聲法直筍線卻趨片勢漏的止分雅割衡平譽均仆法拋斗物釘線劍趨企勢恩的善分齊割添平禿均呆法最煮小情二鵝乘另法三煉點搖法直膨線廟趨撤勢棟預(yù)咬測重模胞型拋雷物帖線蟻趨衰勢箭預(yù)全測坐模冤型8躲.暑5喘.罩1直漫線芹趨癢勢炭的天分項割垮平養(yǎng)均恒法纖（戲1宏）直隨線稻趨討勢耕的質(zhì)分兼割餐平栗均輝法濁的孟過經(jīng)程身首賢先逐將哭時礎(chǔ)間洲序尺列伴數(shù)謹(jǐn)據(jù)壓分拘為番前病后軋相感等擺的免兩檢段臨（芽當(dāng)漿數(shù)紛據(jù)葡為縣奇匆數(shù)脖個灘時食，養(yǎng)去惱掉吼數(shù)棵列占第各1索項?；蛟嶂姓糸g陰1飛項優(yōu)）突，納并翁分疾別閑求賺出阿兩朝端寺數(shù)抽據(jù)冬對擊應(yīng)好觀踐察橡值捐與虎時膽序槐的狼平費均旋值牧，置并恢以婆此殃為鑰坐同標(biāo)歸；瀉假儉設(shè)荒兩甘點令的土坐年標(biāo)啊分等別喂為暈。鴿則法選抖定丟直售線跨趨憑勢槳方帆程姓為國：8院.民5乏.俘1直宣線渴趨攀勢桌的爹分衰割支平噴均混法屈（沃2蠢）例觀察年份199419951996199719981999200020012002時序123456789觀察值131516181921232426預(yù)測值2003（25.5）8獲.腳5葉.浮1直輝線組趨嘩勢搜的話分銷割像平者均婦法束（嶺3況）計洽算摔過齡程8家.誼5爸.科2拋文物字線拍趨廣勢敘的禿分戒割坦平趨均翁法諸（拖1選）拋拾物臭線抹趨趨勢渾的孤分歡割犯平丈均沫法踩要腹求斤將符時色間花序磁列郵數(shù)倡據(jù)禁劃徒分餓為勉等頌距伴離覽的嚴(yán)三失段呀。臺若愉數(shù)幅列驗不陵能志被桶3冰整著除幻玉，鮮當(dāng)熟余飛數(shù)標(biāo)為舍1劈燕時煎去繡掉的數(shù)惕列內(nèi)首墳項鞏；廉當(dāng)蘆余范數(shù)短為邊2據(jù)時食，世去陰掉矛三魂段催中艷間偉所抄夾季兩段項虹。烏拋杏物汗線職趨意勢鉗的產(chǎn)分協(xié)割燙平圖均雄法緣瑞的板預(yù)壞測糧模袋型疊為茶：、口可昨以蠶由蹄下榜列仁方奇程狂組嬸求她得8議.適5謹(jǐn).歷2拋制物磨線抬趨酷勢雪的致分歡割片平秧均圣法屯（乎2鵝）例將哭上到表罩?jǐn)?shù)招據(jù)稀分紐奉為復(fù)等征距暗的辣三鴉段晶，鎮(zhèn)每鴿段思兩狡個償數(shù)匠據(jù)掘。架分駐別躲計能算均三岔點類坐某標(biāo)朽得申到鄰：觀察年份199719981999200020012002時序123456觀察值1200140016201862212724138劉.黃5運.躺2拋羽物商線短趨晉勢動的怒分卻割梢平相均菠法育（欠3堡）待他定腫參妙數(shù)砌的拍聯(lián)虹立燦方吼程清組念為境：8絹.鳥5籍.屑3最向小票二再乘捎法棕（寺1裙）最屈小莊二賄乘先法渠即嶄適柏用停于蝦直侵線告趨漲勢展的削預(yù)僵測款，逐也住適喝用鑼于里曲為線恩趨黃勢員的潔預(yù)赴測伐。最尿小吩二窩乘痰法喚直董線暢趨仍勢血預(yù)運測倉?？缧筒鞛橥蓿?配.屯5豈.姜3最肚小羽二弓乘掉法眾（稻2緩）例觀察年份時序(t)觀察值(x)txt2趨勢值199311313112.7199421530415.5199531854918.21996420801620.919975241202523.619986271623626.319997302104929.120008322566431.820019353158134.62002103636010037.3合計25016003852508伙.匯5禽.效3最迫小允二域乘暫法據(jù)（躁3嬌）根繡據(jù)拐上帝表扒可軌知擾：8愁.筆5鄉(xiāng)豐.昂4直各線伴趨梁勢禿預(yù)足測場模擺型警（語1獲）若唱時辰間脹序舉列棄呈范直挑線性趨泳勢弄，達(dá)則僑選著用鐘三莖點懼法錘的賣直內(nèi)線閥趨蹦勢連預(yù)隙測劍模布型鋸。騙當(dāng)數(shù)廢據(jù)罵項棋大拉于味1匠0犯時面，介取蕉5墊項忘加參權(quán)旦平棚均，超在狂序翁列摩的意首育尾借兩講端原求紙得市近丹期掩和爐遠(yuǎn)屬期送兩姨點振坐輸標(biāo)畏。直炮線膠趨揮勢慚預(yù)峰測狡模疑型做為怨：將朋坐益標(biāo)皮點喚的料值伶代饑入汽預(yù)柄測序模久型串有8么.杜5戲.磁4直劣線臺趨下勢嫩預(yù)辭測旺模臟型顏（蘋2昆）當(dāng)數(shù)脖據(jù)度項哀在私6應(yīng)~著1刻0傲?xí)r箭，讓取嚼3均項域加暗權(quán)趨平吳均，共在據(jù)序舌列青的犬首渡尾梅兩昨端錘求維得爭近仇期四和別遠(yuǎn)瓶期謀兩手點淺坐吳標(biāo)幕。將舌坐灑標(biāo)啊點遵代蓬入圣到柏預(yù)脹測戶模栗型唉，議有炮：8調(diào).拳5館.文4直六線尾趨蓮勢固預(yù)址測需模蛋型佩（手3蹦）例觀察年份時序t觀察值x權(quán)數(shù)wwx加權(quán)平均199314.4014.40R199424.7829.56199535.13315.39199645.81合計29.354.89199756.94199867.36加權(quán)平均199978.1318.13T200088.56217.12200198.91326.73合計51.988.668蓮.示5魚.庭4直海線斑趨四勢因預(yù)貸測掌模紗型瀉（條4術(shù)）計殘算裂過因程8薄.凡5腳.稠5拋嘉物處線融趨雙勢膊預(yù)柿測呈模幕型首其先倉將薯時導(dǎo)間宮序偷列訓(xùn)劃嘉分善為順等升距掘的蓄三肅組割，剛?cè)舯╉椆~數(shù)謠大撈于負(fù)1耐5碌，梅則罪每蘭組征數(shù)薪據(jù)乏取5略項吧加孟權(quán)借平幸均；雀若珠數(shù)蛙據(jù)您項虹數(shù)吩在茫9蛛~拳1氧5蹤蝶之偷間鑒，彩則院每聰組府取3傾項估加薦權(quán)葛平乞均。設(shè)援近曉、齡中棋、椒遠(yuǎn)晉期峰三資組榜數(shù)丟據(jù)帽的紙平援均礦值耐的鏟坐撒標(biāo)雅點萄分氧別瞇為棚、芳。拋賣物名線赤趨孫勢瞧預(yù)侄測蠻的助數(shù)戀學(xué)霜模享型征為輝：5洗項仰加吳權(quán)饑平崖均晃預(yù)總測煤模拳型將喚坐襖標(biāo)辟點刮的膝值歡代定入跡到碰預(yù)屈測炭模蓄型抓，險得積到撫：3李項絕加梯權(quán)材平仇均怠預(yù)熄測踏模胖型鑼（潤1騾）將給坐闊標(biāo)摘點隊的泄值宰代稿入蒸到趕預(yù)猜測層模儉型碗，劈燕得嗚到裳：3毀項好加對權(quán)淺平折均楚預(yù)凍測帶模特型抄（榨2格）例觀察年份時序(t)觀察值(x)權(quán)數(shù)wwx加權(quán)平均1992141141R1993251210219943593177199546632053.31996572172S1997677215419987823246199988547278.72000986186T200110852170200211823246合計50283.73撈項菠加智權(quán)姥平都均上預(yù)必測赴模滋型勉（限3早）計增算掠過痰程8雨.株6攪季爭節(jié)解變他動誕法輛預(yù)答測季鼠節(jié)釋變?yōu)又e預(yù)嫂測寬的要基笛本必思傭路頑是役：奪首鬼先廁根溪據(jù)申時個間銷序驚列棋的擦實展際亞值噴，以觀輛察估不誕同進(jìn)年訓(xùn)份農(nóng)的蛛季教或簡月虎有凱無槍明載顯僅的明周反期蒜波密動紅，擇以取判雅斷濕該皮序陳列畢是萌否硬存母在粱季朱節(jié)河變囑動殖；蹤蝶然纖后即設(shè)源法遷消的除耐趨帶勢秘變覆動恨和淋?？嬗喟咦兊讋又男嘤澳ｍ懰?，豎以猛測碧定屈季忍節(jié)粱變毅動泉；亡最振后壁求婦出踏季征節(jié)敬指叼數(shù)舌，漸結(jié)踩合晌預(yù)饞測想模蛾型劉進(jìn)窗行都預(yù)繞測聾。季貞節(jié)鬧變女動里預(yù)基測具必機(jī)須諒收音集三沾年秒以借上的誼資婦料車。季推節(jié)走變駛動補預(yù)毒測碎的堅方能法陵有桃：簡茄單盡平葡均樂法季活節(jié)蟲比努例粒法8及.譜6冤.檢1簡杰單歸平蔑均境法景（勻1星）簡誼單識平注均先法哲也潤稱困做寬同途月愚（臣季刪）柳平補均商法態(tài)，傾即向通保過竊對雨若成干勾年浙份檔的遲資賠料決數(shù)究據(jù)肥求情出平同柳月制（但季皺）鼻的賺平碼均但水險平狐，隔然品后材對代比嘉各監(jiān)月委（嫂季陷）瞞的竊季慶節(jié)輸指洽數(shù)圍表彈明趕季系節(jié)騙變?nèi)雍统虉远让?，心結(jié)篩合瓜預(yù)午測它模宜型萍進(jìn)御行旱預(yù)燥測蔬。簡嗚單晝平安均旅法舍的具歌體賞步剝驟是術(shù)：根奇據(jù)廢各瓣年傍份代資忘料敢求宗出校每嘉月低（清季陜）幕平堪均跡數(shù)冰；計兔算宮全藝時型期需月望（課季留）銀總陳平隆均家數(shù)純；求蛛出舊月橋（箭季鵝）應(yīng)季款節(jié)復(fù)指稍數(shù)奶；進(jìn)池行之預(yù)口測磨。月經(jīng)（滿季的）鋼季餓節(jié)膜指誦數(shù)貪的估計購算S布I萌表供示伴月稻（掘季碧）熔季宣節(jié)堡指尿數(shù)咸，頁表病示再各潤月濁（鼻季燭）本平副均傷數(shù)陜，減表棋示套全參時頑期奇總糞月銹（槳季笑）薯平駱均堅數(shù)8吵.閉6導(dǎo).決1簡餐單舉平?jīng)鼍j法宜（掉2婆）例厚：輝若馬假柏定汽2安0船0袖2贊年府全煌年粉預(yù)酸計億銷姓量暮為漂3博0瞇0柔0詠0鉆，硬則申全啟年繭月鼻平售均繼銷版量運為氏2迫5言0菌0搖。月年199920002001合計月平均季節(jié)指數(shù)預(yù)測值18012032052017313.7342.5212020040072024019.04753200350700125041733.1827.545008501500285095075.31882.558001500240047001567124.33107.56250045006800138004600364.891207240064007200160005333422.910572.5860090015003000100079.31982.59200400600120040031.7792.51010025040075025019.849511601002003601209.5237.5124080110230776.1152.5合計760015650221304538012611200.0025008攝.剩6文.拿2培季茅節(jié)斃比正例齡法掘（牢1霜）季裳節(jié)京比坊例趣法王是年為過了皮消扶除哲趨誼勢飽變舉動規(guī)和血剩凝余悅變罵動悠的縮慧影漆響解，卸利莊用青各誰月穴（享季申）某的婚實將際冒值透與聰趨識勢厲值什之傅比雪計舅算鋪季玩節(jié)灘指鄉(xiāng)豐數(shù)脊來翁分經(jīng)析利和蹦確親定按各包月亦（怨季車）塞預(yù)父測皺值虜?shù)脑乱焕确N日方績法篩。季述節(jié)喚比寄例大法歷的洪基松本次步盤驟啞是本：求笨趨壩勢鄉(xiāng)豐值計銷算劈燕各爐期指的饑趨顛勢泳比剪率計刺算熊季俯節(jié)僻指睜數(shù)進(jìn)停行浩預(yù)葵測8訓(xùn).酸6降.成2度季悲節(jié)嚷比當(dāng)例鴉法區(qū)（森2品）例襯：鬧根鐮據(jù)鳥下墳表撞時拘間老序攏列讀預(yù)嶄測第2粒0拼0礎(chǔ)2熄年多各肥季減度莖銷徹售積量授。觀察年分時序（t）觀察值（x）t2tx趨勢值趨勢比率（TI）199913213225.091.2821843626.210.6932196327.330.774391615628.451.3720005362518029.371.226