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OnlineTravelFaces
GenerationalShiftsin
Demographics&Tech
Areviewofrecentresearch
2
Anyindustrythatgrowsfromzerotoonetrilliondollarsduringthetimeittakesalilyplantedinasidewalkgardentosproutfromaseed,blossom,andproduceonefinalflowerisboundtoexperiencesometurbulence.
Intheshortspanofits25-yearexistence,theonlinetravelindustryhasseentheriseandfallofupstarts,incorporateddisruptivetechnologies,andconsolidatedaroundmajorbrandsofunprecedentedsize.Adaptabilityhaspaidenormousdividends.ThelastdecadebroughttorridgrowthforthelargestU.S.players.
Butasthepastyearhasmadeclear,nooneintheonlinetravelindustrycanaffordtorestontheirlaurels.In2019,growthinleisuretripsslowedto3.9%worldwide,apercentagepointbelow2018,andthefinancialresultsofflagshipcompanieslikeExpediaandBookingHoldingsfellshortofanalysts’targets.Thepossibilityofadownturnwasoneveryone’smind.“SignificantchallengescapableofthrowingtheU.S.travelindustry
OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech
offitsgrowthtrajectoryloomonthehorizon,”Deloittewarnedinareportthatwentontodiscusstheinfrastructuresqueeze,risingoperatingcosts,andashortageofqualifiedworkers.1Andtheseconcernspaledincomparisontotheimpactofaseriesofgenerationalshiftsalreadyunderway.
Areviewofrecentresearchhighlightsthemostsignificantchangesfacingonlinetravel.Massiveevolutionaryforces—bothdemographicanddigital—aresettoforceanewroundofadaptation.Companiesthatpositionthemselveswellwillprofitenormously.Forecastsprojectacompoundannualgrowthratefortheglobalonlinetravelbookingmarketof12.1%,climbingfrom$800billionin2018tonearly$2trillionin2026.Toputthesenumbersinperspective,theglobalmarketforsmartphones,whosesalesrecentlyplateaued,was$522billionin2018.2
3
Revenue
Billions
8.8
10.7
5.8
8.4
4.0
5.2
3.03
3.08
2.9
1.9
OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech
Onlinetravelexceedssmartphonesinmarketsize
A$2trillionopportunity
Theonlinetravelindustrytodayis1.5xbiggerthanthe
marketforsmartphones
Onlinetravel2026
Onlinetravel2018Smartphones2018
Sources:ZionMarketResearch,December2018andGrowthfromKnowledge2019
Adecadeoftorridgrowth
11.2
14.5
2008
201020122014
BookingHoldingsExpedia
2016
2018
4
OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech
Demographicsdrivedemand
InSeptember2018,theearth’spopulationpassedahistoricmilestone.Forthefirsttimesincepeoplebeganmeasuringtheirrelativewell-being,morethanhalfofhumanitycouldbeconsidered“middleclass”or“rich.”3Thevastmajorityofhumanbeingslivedincountriesthatwereclassifiedasmiddle-orhigh-income—only9percentlivedinlow-incomecountries,andthatnumberwasshrinkingeveryday.4AccordingtoHomiKharas,interimvicepresidentoftheBrookingsInstitution,fivepeoplejoinedtheglobalmiddleclasseverysecond.
Theimplicationsforthetravelindustry—bothonlineandoffline—werehuge.Amiddle-classfamily,definedasahouseholdthatcouldspend$11to$110perperson
perday,hadenoughdiscretionaryincometoafforddurablegoods,entertainment,andtravel.Atthelowerend,theycouldaffordabicycleoramotorcycle,gotothemoviesorarestaurant,andtakeaholidayawayfromhome.TheyhadaccesstotheInternetandabankaccountwithafinancialinstitutionoramobile-moneyproviderandadesiretoexperiencemoreoftheworld.5
Indeed,researchrevealsthereisnolongeranyreasontoassumethatfamiliesofmodestmeanswillrestricttheirvacationstofamiliarplaces.AccordingtoVisa,“By2025,nearlyhalfofallhouseholdsgloballyshouldbeabletoaffordtravelaspartofthenewtravelingclass.”6
5
OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech
Economicstabilitybringsoutnewtravelers
Demographicsdrivedemand
Tentimesasmanypeoplejointhemiddleclasseverysecondthanjointheranksoftherich
Themiddle-class
planetwecallhome
50%+
2people
movefrom“poor”to“vulnerable”every2seconds
10people
movefrom
1person
1personmovesfrom“middleclass”to“rich”every2seconds
peoplewhocanbe
considered“middleclass”
or“rich”
“vulnerable”to“middleclass”
every2seconds
9%
peoplewholiveinlow-in-
comecountries
Asmiddle-classfamiliesbuildwealth,theyprioritizetravel
Whatmiddle-classfamiliesbuy:
Refrigerators
(Householdswitha
spendingpowerof
$7to$16perday)
Transport&
mobilephones
(Householdswitha
spendingpowerof
$16to$17perday)
Washingmachines
(Householdswitha
spendingpowerof
$27to$55perday)
Leisuretravel
(Householdswitha
spendingpowerof
$50ormoreperday)
Sources:Brookings,“Aglobaltippingpoint:Halftheworldisnowmiddleclassorwealthier,”September27,2018;Factfulness,byHansRosling,NewYork:FlatironBooks,2018,p.31;andWorldDataLab.“EmergingTrendsinTheGlobalMiddleClass:APrivateConversationwithDr.HomriKharas,”April17,2019
6
OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech
Whatmoderntravelerswant
It’sthesoon-to-be$2trillionquestion.Whatdoesamoderntravelerwant?Atleasttensandpossiblyhundredsofthousandsofdollarsarespenteach
yeartryingtoparsetheneedsanddesiresofmoderntravelers,fromboomers,whoarethebiggestspenders,toGenZ,whoistheyoungestandmostbudget-consciousgroup.Andwhileeveryonewantstospendtimewithfamilyandfriends,getawayfromtheirday-to-dayroutine,andrelaxandrejuvenate,therearemarkedgenerationaldifferences.
GenX,bornbetween1965and1979,isoftencalledthesandwichgeneration,caughtbetweenlargergroupsofboomersandmillennials.Oncedismissedasslackers,theirachievementsbeliethestereotype.Theyarebettereducated—35%ofGenXershaveadegreeversus19%ofmillennials—andmoreentrepreneurialthanothergroups,makingup55%ofstartupfoundersasof2016.7Whenitcomestotravel,family-friendlylocationsandactivitiesareatoppriority.Soisthechancetotakeabreakfromdemandingjobs.Comparedtoboomers,GenXerstravelmoreandspendless.Theyaverage4.9tripsayearcomparedtotheboomeraverageof4.4trips.
MillennialsaverageasmanytripsasGenXers,butbecausetheyformalargercohort,theirpreferencesare
havinganoutsizedimpactontheindustry.Fouroutoffivemillennialssaytheyvalueexperiencingadifferentcultureoverpartying(twooutoffive)8orshopping(oneoutoffive).Forlocalimmersion,theyturnedtoneighborhoodandcommunityevents,theater,musicfestivals,andfoodandwinefestivals.Anxioustogettoknowachangingworldbeforeaspectsofitdisappearforever,theyexpressedapreferencetosavefortravelovermoretraditionalinvestments,includingbuyingahouse.9
SustainabletravelwasimportanttobothmillennialsandGenZ,theyoungandupcominggeneration,bornafter1995,whosesizeisprojectedtodwarfallthegenerationsthathavecomebeforeit.Alreadydescribedasmoresociallyandenvironmentallyaware,theyoungpeopleinGenZrecognizethattravelandtourismcanbedouble-edgedswords.Whiletheycreatejobs,drivedevelopment,andcanadvanceurbaninfrastructureandaccessibility,theyalsocontributetoclimatechangeandthedestructionoflocalhabitatsandcultures.Inarecentsurveyof18to26yearolds—ablendofmillennialsandGenZ—86%saiditwasimportanttothemtoconsideratravelcompany’scommitmenttosustainableoptionswhenbookingatrip,and90%saidthecompany’scommitmenttoethicaltravelwasimportant.10
7
OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech
Travelpreferences,theyareachanging
Travelisagenerationalafair
Timeaccessingtheinterneteachday
Hours,viaPC
24%Babyboomers9%Greatestgeneration
1:201:021:02
0:08
26%GenZ
GenX
Millennial
Babyboomer
GenZ
22%Millennials
Hours,viamobilephone
5:00
GenZ
20%GenX
Travelprioritiesareshi什ingintheU.S....andaroundtheworld
86%
4outof5millennials
wouldratherexperienceanewculturecomparedto1.5outof5whowouldrathershop
52%
1outof2millennialsandGenZ
travelerswouldvisitlesser-knowndestinationsovermorepopularonesifitmeanshavinglessofanimpactontheenvironment
37%
1outof3millennialsandGenZ
travelersarelikelytowanttovolunteerwhiletraveling
400million
thenumberofChinesemillennials
isgreaterthanthepopulationoftheU.S.
andCanadacombined
90%
ofChinesemillennialshaveasmartphone
83%
ofpaymentsinChinaweremadethrough
mobiledevicesin2018
Sources:NielsenTotalAudienceReport,MarketingLand,“Moveovermillennials,GenZisnowthelargestsinglepopulationsegment,”July17,2017;IBM,“UniquelyGenerationZ”;TopdeckTravel;andB;NewYorkPost,“ChinesemillennialsareabouttokickU.S.millennialsbutts,”February17,2018;DaxueConsulting
8
Thebiggestshake-up
Twodistinctlynewgenerationsoftravelersandtheprojectedmassiveincreaseindemand—combinedwithanevolutionaryshifttoopentechnologies—areputtingintensepressureonalltheplayersinthetravelvaluechain.
Companiesineveryindustryarecontendingwiththeopportunityandthethreatposedbythecloud,mobile,bigdata,machinelearning,artificialintelligence,IoT,andotheremergingtechnologies.Astheynavigatetheirdigitaltransformations,travelplayershaveadditionalconsiderations.TheNewDistributionCapability(NDC)currentlybeingrolledoutacrosstheindustry,willgivetravelsuppliersgreatercontroloverhowtheyprice,merchandise,andmarkettheirproducts.
AnAPI-enabled,XML-basedmessagingprotocol,NDCisdesignedtoenableairlinestomaketravelersintelligent,differentiatedtraveloffers.
OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech
AccordingtoveterantravelindustryanalystHenryHarteveldtofAtmosphereResearch,airlinesinthefuture“willmoveawayfromtermslike‘fare’and‘ticket’andtowardtermslike‘price,’‘journey,’and‘experience.”11ThiskindofpersonalizationreflectsthestatedpreferencesofbothmillennialandGenZtravelersandispotentiallyagamechangerfortheindustry.
“Massivedisruption.Theendofanera.Theendoftheindustryasweknowit,”ishowAndersBernstr?m,asolutionsexpert,describedNDC.“Thismightsoundlikeadoomsdayscenario,butwe’reabouttofacethebiggestshakeupthetravelindustryhaseverseen.”12
9
Ofers
OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech
TheNewDistributionCapability
NDCisunleashingnew,morecompellingwaysofsellingtravel
Legroom
Extraluggage
FreeWifi
Gourmetmeal
Families
Solosenior
Businessperson
GenZ
Thedigitalimperative
TheadventofNDCraisesthequestion:Istheonlinetravelbookingindustrypreparedtocopewithanothernewtechnology?AccordingtoMcKinsey&Company,astudyofthecross-deviceclickstreamdataofatypicalcustomer’sattempttopurchaseaccommodationsrevealedthatcompaniescontinuetostruggletoprovideagoodexperiencefortravelersusingdigitalchannels.“Thedatashowedrightawaythatfindingtravelaccommodationsisprotracted,complex,and
sometimesannoying:Anaveragepurchasejourneyforasinglehotelroomlasts36days;hits45touchpoints,
distributedamongsearchenginesandthesitesofintermediariesandsuppliers;andinvolvesmultipledevices,”AlexDichter,aseniorpartnerintheconsultingfirm,reported.13
Whenasked,customersvoicedaclearpreferenceforbookingaccommodationsdirectly.Incustomersatisfactionsurveys,onlinetravelagenciesreceivedascoreof79versus86forthedirectbookingexperience.14
10
Ontopofacumbersomeuserexperience,onlinetravelbookingcompaniesareuniquelychallengedbybadactors.Creditcard,ACH,check,andwirefraudarealargeandgrowingproblemacrossindustries.Accordingtothe
AssociationforFinancialProfessionals,82%offinanceprofessionalsreportedtheircompanieswerevictimsofpaymentfraudin2018.15E-commercebusinesses,likeonlinetravelbookingcompanies,areprimetargets.
Whileonlinetravelisyetasmallsegmentofthe$8.8trilliontravelindustry—just9%—itisespeciallyvulnerabletofraudduetotheneedtoacceptcreditcardsoverthewebinwhatareknownas“cardnotpresent”transactions.These“cardnotpresent”transactionsbecameaprimarytargetoffraudstersfollowingtheintroductionofcreditcardsembeddedwithEMVchipsin2011.AccordingtoVisa,chipcardshavecausedan87%declineincounterfeitfraud—whendatafromstolencardsareprintedonfakecardsandusedtomakein-personpayments.
“Chipcardsareincreasinglybecomingthenorm”forin-personpayments,Visanoted.16Asaconsequence,fraudstersaredoublingdownone-commerce.In2019,creditcardfraudincreasedto64%offraudlossesformid/largee-commercemerchants,upfrom47%ofallfraudlossesin2018.17Whilecreditcardfraudisaproblemforonlinetravelcompanies,costingthem$3.13foreverydollartargetedbyafraudster,thepricepaidbyconsumersisevensteeper.18
Whenaskediftheyhadexperiencedfraudontheircreditcardinthelastfiveyears,nearlyoneintwoAmericanssaidyes.19Victimsoffraudwhoalsohadtheiridentitystolensufferedeverythingfromfearandsuicidalthoughtstothelossoftheirhomesortheabilitytotakecareoftheirfamilies.20
OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech
Virtualcards,oneofthemosteffectiveresponsestofraud,havebeengainingtraction.Nearlyoneinthreecompaniessurveyedsaidtheyusedvirtualcardstopayforemployees’hotelaccommodationcostsin2019,upfromjust8%in2015.21Somesay2020willbethetippingpoint,whenthe16-digitnumbers,freedfromtheirplasticencasing,becomewidelyused.Unlikeregularcreditcards,itiscommontouseavirtualcardjustonce,eliminatingthedamagethatcanbedoneifthenumberweretofallintothewronghands.Bothvirtualandphysicalcardscanalsobeauthorizedforuseatcertainmerchants,atcertaintimesofday,evenatcertainterminals.
Theideaofavirtualcardisalsogainingtractionasconsumersincreasinglyadoptdigitalwallets.AccordingtoJuniperResearch,consumeruseofdigitalwalletswillriseto$790billionthisyear,up40%.22
TheU.S.travelindustryhastakennotice.InanarticleinPhocusWire,MortenLarsen,headofproductmarketingatB,reportedthatoneinfivecustomerswillabandonareservationiftheirpaymentmethodofchoiceisunavailable.Thisbehaviorunderscoredtheneedforcompaniestoadapttoaneweraofonlinepayments,hesaid.23
“Beingonestepaheadisnevereasy,particularlywhenconsumerbehaviordiffersmarketbymarket,”Larsenwrote.“Andwhilemuchremainstobeseenregardingwherethiswillleadinthefuture,onethingiscertain:Everythingpointstowardstheimportanceofonlinepayments,suchase-walletsandothersolutionsthataremoredigitallyadvancedthantraditionalcreditcards.”24
11
45%
OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech
Onlinetravelhasroomforimprovement
Behindtheheadlines,onlinetraveliscomplexandmessy
36
days
averagepurchasejourneyforasinglehotelroom
45
touchpoints
averagepurchasejourneyforasinglehotelroom
5weekstobook1room
engine
Search
OTA
Hotel
Onlinepaymentfraudis
growingfast
82%
offinanceprofessionalsreportedtheircompanieswerevictimsofpaymentfraudin2018
amountcompaniessupportingretailtransactionswillspendonfrauddetectionandprevention
$130billion
$9.6billion
amountresearchersstandtoloseon
fraudulentcard-not-presenttransactionsbetween2019and2023
Atargetispaintedonmid/large
e-commercemerchants
Lossesfromcreditcardfraudclimbedfrom47%in2018to64%in2019formid/largee-commercemerchants
64%
2018
2019
$3.13
costofeverydollartargetedbyafraudster
Sources:McKinsey&Company,“Howtoservetoday’sdigitaltraveler,”December2018;Skift;J.P.Morgan,“HowCommercialCardsHelpKeepFraudatBay,”byBrianMcGoldrick,October31,2019;JuniperResearch;Chargeback,“2019TrueCostofFraudReport,”bySydneyVaccaro,October8,2019
12
Onlinetravelin2045
In2045,thelifespanofonlinetravelwillbedoublewhat
itistoday.Whatwilltheindustrylooklikethen?Itistemptingtopredictthatdigitaltravelwilldominate,thatpeoplewilloverwhelminglycarrydigitalwallets,andthatthefinancialsystemthatfacilitatesthepurchaseoftransportationandaccommodationswillbelargelyoverhauled.
Inreality,thehighlycomplexandinterconnectednatureoffinancial,social,governmental,political,andenvironmentalsystemsmakesforecastingtricky.Tomorrow’stravelersmaycontinuetoseeklocalculturalexperiences,ortheymaybemorestronglyattracted
OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech
toexclusiveenclavesthatcateronlytothem.Theymaycontinuetodemandsustainability,ortheymaysurrendertoaworldwhosecharacterhaschangedforever.Whatweknowforsureisthattheywillbemorenumerousandthateachgenerationislikelytohavedistinctpreferences.
Asmuchascompanieswanttoprepareforthefuture,sometimesareadinesstochangecourseisthebestlong-termplan.Thelessonfromthefirsttwenty-fiveyearsoftheonlinetravelindustry’sexistenceisthatifonecharacteristictrumpsallothers,itisadaptability.
OnlineTravelFacesGenerationalShiftsinDemographics&Tech
Notes
1Deloitte,2019USTravelandHospitalityOutlook,
/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/consumer-business/us-consumer-2019-
us-travel-and-hospitality-outlook.pdf
2MorningstarResearch,“Onlinetravelstockswithroomtorun,”May5,2019;GrowthfromKnowledge,“Globalsmartphonesalesreached$522billionin2019,February22,2019;MotleyFool,“IDC:SmartphoneMarkettoReturntoGrowthin2020,”September9,2019
3Brookings,“Aglobaltippingpoint:Halfofworldisnow
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