市場策略報告：關(guān)注周期品漲價的持續(xù)性

核心觀點與展望50A1.45%20002%TMT9%7%320002000ETF年報證實匯金借道ETF23300ETF1050ETF50300ETF2530001周內(nèi)核心指數(shù)行業(yè)表現(xiàn)資料來源：，2周內(nèi)中信一級行業(yè)表現(xiàn)資料來源：，4PPI圖3大宗商品表現(xiàn)名稱最新價5日漲跌幅（%）30日漲跌幅（%）年漲跌幅（%）COMEX黃金2254.804.3910.318.83COMEX白銀25.101.0311.404.21ICE布油87.072.645.3413.02LME銅8872.000.064.703.66LME鋁2335.001.136.55-2.06SHFE螺紋鋼3412.00-5.54-9.83-14.70CBOT大豆1192.00-0.044.49-8.17CBOT小麥561.501.22-3.89-10.59CBOT玉米442.250.684.43-6.15DCE玉米2415.000.29-1.55-0.33DCE鐵礦石740.00-11.85-15.86-23.99SHFE熱軋卷板3625.00-5.15-7.08-11.80DCE聚丙烯7483.00-0.990.77-1.28LME鋅2437.00-1.890.62-8.31LME鎳16645.00-3.46-4.670.25LME錫27475.00-0.914.238.11LME鉛2053.000.81-1.79-0.75DCE生豬15030.00-3.311.979.67DCE雞蛋3287.00-5.38-6.30-9.57CZCE純堿1789.00-2.720.51-12.99CZCE尿素1982.00-0.60-8.20-5.98NYMEX天然氣1.75-3.31-3.10-30.31DCE塑料8225.00-0.620.28-0.64DCE焦煤1487.50-10.18-14.24-21.05DCE焦炭1990.00-8.63-15.59-19.71CZCE動力煤----CZCE甲醇2490.00-2.39-0.952.01DCE乙二醇4460.00-0.76-4.020.22DCE苯乙烯9346.001.653.0211.01資料來源：，3PMI1-2月，9140.6+10.2%22750圖4上證50表現(xiàn)及成交占比資料來源：，指數(shù)與基金市場回顧50100503%5%圖5指數(shù)與行業(yè)漲跌幅指數(shù)與大類行業(yè)周漲跌幅（%）上周漲跌幅（%）月漲跌幅（%）年初至今漲跌幅（%）最近兩周換手率（%）最新?lián)Q手率歷史分位（2010年6月至今）本周上周單日5日均上證綜指-0.23-0.220.862.230.780.8265.10%67.23%深證成指-1.72-0.490.75-1.301.251.4240.43%42.68%滬深300-0.21-0.700.613.100.430.4549.27%47.74%創(chuàng)業(yè)板50-2.54-1.131.63-1.771.611.9515.16%26.36%創(chuàng)業(yè)板指-2.73-0.790.62-3.871.471.729.76%22.06%創(chuàng)業(yè)板綜-3.210.842.88-7.793.543.6764.39%70.67%風(fēng)格指數(shù)科創(chuàng)50-3.96-1.79-5.57-10.480.800.893.69%8.16%中小綜指-2.110.672.01-5.952.092.3351.62%59.49%上證500.49-0.990.073.820.230.2257.96%53.35%中證1000.22-0.611.423.400.460.5077.63%79.17%中證500-1.83-1.28-1.13-2.641.061.2321.66%23.47%中證1000-2.760.721.81-7.581.941.9439.50%48.72%萬得全A-1.450.001.35-2.851.261.3468.16%71.28%能源指數(shù)1.99-0.031.2012.930.490.5176.94%67.23%材料指數(shù)1.13-1.155.08-2.011.411.5454.45%50.81%工業(yè)指數(shù)-0.340.033.85-1.471.371.4667.60%66.11%可選消費指數(shù)-1.771.373.931.472.362.5881.05%86.40%日常消費指數(shù)-0.500.031.43-2.251.411.5935.44%42.57%大類行業(yè)醫(yī)療保健指數(shù)-2.21-2.14-2.09-11.871.421.6538.89%49.40%金融指數(shù)-0.75-0.61-3.043.500.350.3554.63%54.86%信息技術(shù)指數(shù)-5.331.400.07-8.932.913.1161.59%72.59%電信服務(wù)指數(shù)1.192.481.345.720.740.7645.79%42.53%公用事業(yè)指數(shù)1.30-0.143.096.530.670.7243.35%40.61%房地產(chǎn)指數(shù)-1.90-1.35-3.93-9.311.441.2361.44%71.57%資料來源：，-0.86%-0.78%和-0.44%50%值為-2.3%5%8.1%。圖6基金凈值變化資料來源：，風(fēng)險偏好與板塊熱度本周滬深300風(fēng)險溢價回落7bp至299bp，滬深300估值中位數(shù)回升至18.95倍。近期市場持續(xù)震蕩，風(fēng)險溢價在歷史極值上下浮動。圖7滬深300風(fēng)險溢價資料來源：，圖8板塊熱度板塊熱度本周上周變化農(nóng)林牧漁6285-23輕工制造6188-27環(huán)保6186-26商貿(mào)零售5386-32美容護理5279-28石油石化5169-18紡織服飾5172-21房地產(chǎn)5169-18綜合4891-43有色金屬4886-38食品飲料4879-32基礎(chǔ)化工4783-36建筑裝飾4375-33公用事業(yè)4163-23建筑材料4074-33交通運輸3866-28社會服務(wù)3879-42家用電器3869-31汽車3582-47國防軍工2984-55醫(yī)藥生物2973-44機械設(shè)備2774-46通信2579-55傳媒2383-60銀行21714鋼鐵2158-37電力設(shè)備2174-53電子2081-62計算機1781-64煤炭1028-18非銀金融521-15資料來源：，重要資金行為本周北上資金凈流入23.35億元，其中周五暫停交易。行業(yè)層面，銀行、食品飲料和汽車等行業(yè)凈流入規(guī)?？壳?，醫(yī)藥生物、傳媒和電力設(shè)備等行業(yè)凈流出規(guī)模靠前。個股來看，凈流入規(guī)模居前的有和五糧液等，均凈流入超9億元；凈流出規(guī)模居前的有邁瑞醫(yī)療、賽力斯和歌爾股份等，均凈流出超4億元。圖9北上資金持股變化北上資金持股變化本周凈流入（億元）上周凈流入（億元）月度凈流入（億元）季度凈流入（億元）年度凈流入（億元）24年2月凈流入（億元）24年1月凈流入（億元）23年12月凈流入（億元）銀行30.6-0.561.3252.0252.0135.954.8-53.6食品飲料16.64.769.6164.8164.8113.2-18.0-56.5汽車8.4-4.135.759.759.741.1-17.17.3電子7.88.437.1118.9118.942.938.859.4公用事業(yè)7.0-2.616.252.952.916.020.716.6有色金屬6.9-0.140.036.036.037.4-41.321.2建筑裝飾5.9-4.82.143.943.924.417.4-6.7國防軍工3.5-0.64.741.841.815.022.02.5通信3.47.824.243.443.47.911.3-8.8家用電器2.512.750.170.970.919.51.2-19.4農(nóng)林牧漁1.41.50.85.05.010.3-6.1-2.4輕工制造1.1-4.0-2.9-13.3-13.3-9.0-1.4-3.1石油石化0.64.111.94.74.719.7-26.9-18.4機械設(shè)備0.32.211.9-24.1-24.11.0-37.0-8.3紡織服飾0.2-0.24.83.23.20.6-2.35.5綜合-0.10.10.00.70.71.4-0.70.1煤炭-0.8-8.67.016.216.20.48.82.4房地產(chǎn)-0.9-2.4-3.8-1.1-1.1-0.53.24.4環(huán)保-0.9-1.8-4.1-6.0-6.0-1.1-0.9-0.5基礎(chǔ)化工-1.0-7.5-6.60.40.44.32.713.7非銀金融-1.00.0-4.035.835.874.4-34.6-40.9計算機-1.1-16.7-52.8-14.3-14.36.032.4-39.4商貿(mào)零售-1.4-4.33.86.26.25.5-3.0-6.0美容護理-1.9-3.4-9.0-7.5-7.511.2-9.6-6.2交通運輸-2.1-6.3-1.941.041.016.926.0-0.7鋼鐵-2.5-7.3-11.4-7.2-7.26.8-2.67.9建筑材料-2.5-8.5-10.5-16.2-16.20.1-5.8-4.6社會服務(wù)-2.7-2.1-7.3-5.5-5.51.40.4-5.9電力設(shè)備-4.07.754.46.16.148.3-96.674.4傳媒-9.07.7-17.6-70.8-70.8-14.5-38.7-21.1醫(yī)藥生物-11.7-36.3-56.2-75.9-75.9-6.3-13.47.9資料來源：，本周ETF基金整體上凈贖回，凈申購的指數(shù)ETF為滬深300ETF（15.0億元）和上ETF（1.9億元）,ETF1000ETF（-20.3億ETF（-17.4億元）50ETF（-7.8億元。圖10指數(shù)ETF凈申贖變化指數(shù)ETF凈申購變化跟蹤ETF本周凈申購（億元）上周凈申購（億元）滬深30015.0-7.7320.92597.82597.8上證紅利1.9-1.8-2.81.81.8科創(chuàng)創(chuàng)業(yè)50-0.2-1.4-3.3-3.9-3.9MSCI中國A50-0.77.55.93.73.7中證紅利-1.0-3.1-2.017.217.2國證2000-1.70.9-6.7-7.1-7.1科創(chuàng)50-1.9-34.1-47.8-29.4-29.4創(chuàng)成長-2.0-1.0-6.0-5.5-5.5中證2000-2.50.1-28.5-7.7-7.7中證500-3.2-11.054.7420.7420.7創(chuàng)業(yè)板50-4.7-12.4-41.8-24.1-24.1上證50-7.8-5.5-5.7254.2254.2創(chuàng)業(yè)板-17.4-32.4-69.0186.6186.6中證1000-20.3-2.33.4248.5248.5資料來源：，盈利與估值變化PE18.97.6%；PB1.810.8%。PB93.0%40.7%圖11行業(yè)大盤股估值中位數(shù)行業(yè)大盤股估值中位數(shù)PE估值PE歷史分位PB估值PB歷史分位相對估值相對估值歷史分位美容護理30.18.6%4.067.7%2.293.0%公用事業(yè)16.445.8%1.656.7%0.999.4%汽車21.161.8%1.951.8%1.199.9%煤炭7.519.5%1.346.1%0.771.5%機械設(shè)備23.029.8%2.137.5%1.292.1%紡織服飾16.332.0%1.631.6%0.968.4%傳媒13.15.1%1.928.2%1.046.6%石油石化11.212.5%1.526.7%0.861.9%通信24.311.7%2.321.6%1.361.4%商貿(mào)零售12.87.2%1.520.9%0.866.3%輕工制造15.41.8%1.519.9%0.848.3%有色金屬19.412.6%1.819.8%1.056.0%國防軍工40.710.4%2.515.6%1.449.2%電子28.421.2%2.514.7%1.462.2%鋼鐵9.544.7%0.714.0%0.455.3%社會服務(wù)27.417.7%2.511.9%1.448.2%電力設(shè)備18.92.4%1.911.5%1.026.1%全市場18.97.6%1.810.8%--食品飲料21.43.4%3.410.7%1.940.7%建筑裝飾11.222.5%1.110.1%0.630.3%銀行5.226.0%0.59.7%0.320.6%家用電器15.89.8%2.18.8%1.258.7%綜合29.369.4%0.98.7%0.513.3%計算機33.526.7%2.66.7%1.430.5%醫(yī)藥生物19.812.1%2.05.3%1.111.1%交通運輸12.630.2%1.24.1%0.632.6%農(nóng)林牧漁5.40.7%1.94.1%1.19.3%建筑材料13.929.5%1.32.0%0.722.9%環(huán)保14.98.3%1.11.3%0.63.8%房地產(chǎn)6.212.9%0.61.1%0.34.2%基礎(chǔ)化工14.611.2%1.40.7%0.85.3%非銀金融14.423.9%0.90.4%0.55.3%資料來源：，本周行業(yè)盈利預(yù)期來看，近期商貿(mào)零售、紡織服飾和社會服務(wù)行業(yè)業(yè)績預(yù)期上修，建筑材料、鋼鐵和電力設(shè)備等行業(yè)盈利預(yù)期邊際下滑。圖12行業(yè)盈利預(yù)測變化代碼 行業(yè) 預(yù)測EPS(2024)

近一周變化 近一月變化 2024年初以來變化

預(yù)測EPS（2024）

實際EPS（2022）

預(yù)測PE2024801200.SI

商貿(mào)零售

0.58 6.50%

5.88%

-6.25%

0.58 -0.04 24.99801130.SI801210.SI801110.SI801890.SI801120.SI801140.SI801720.SI801760.SI801230.SI801750.SI801080.SI801980.SI801770.SI801010.SI801150.SI801780.SI801160.SI801180.SI801050.SI801970.SI801950.SI801880.SI801030.SI801740.SI801170.SI801960.SI801790.SI801730.SI801040.SI801710.SI

傳媒綜合電子通信銀行房地產(chǎn)環(huán)保鋼鐵建筑材料

0.76 2.44%0.51 0.29%1.97 -0.11%0.77 -0.41%3.29 -0.60%0.94 -0.62%1.00 -0.63%0.58 -0.64%0.41 -0.68%0.72 -0.69%0.76 -0.78%1.56 -1.49%1.22 -1.59%0.88 -1.63%1.15 -1.80%1.15 -1.80%0.60 -1.91%0.84 -2.02%0.85 -2.12%0.70 -2.13%1.64 -2.38%1.23 -2.55%1.06 -2.63%0.63 -2.64%0.60 -2.90%0.97 -3.88%1.03 -7.34%1.53 -8.64%0.33 -9.44%0.76 -13.10%

-1.85% 0.41%1.38% -2.37%0.44% 0.25%1.25% -0.73%0.85% 1.43%0.78% 1.82%0.83%