20230313-海通國際-寶豐能源-600989-22年實(shí)現(xiàn)歸母凈利潤63.03億元同比下降10.86%

本研究報(bào)告由海通國際分銷，海通國際是由海通國際研究有限公司，海通證券印度私人有限公司，海通國際株式會社和海通國際證券集團(tuán)其他各成員單位的證券研究團(tuán)隊(duì)所組成的全球品牌，海通國際證券集團(tuán)各成員分別在其許可的司法管轄區(qū)內(nèi)從事證券活動。關(guān)于海通國際的分析師證明，重要披露聲明和免責(zé)聲明，請參閱附錄。(PleaseseeappendixforEnglishtran22年實(shí)現(xiàn)歸母凈利潤63.03億元，同比下降10.86%觀點(diǎn)聚焦InvestmentFocus (PleaseseeAPPENDIX 優(yōu)于大市OUTPERFORMRmb15.75Rmb18.023.9-3.0-5.0CCCA+284.30億元，同比增長22.02%；實(shí)現(xiàn)歸母凈利潤63.03億元，同比下降10.86%。來源:MSCIESGResearchLLC,盟浪.Reproducedbypermission;nofurtherdistribution發(fā)行股票數(shù)目Rmb115.50bn/US$16.58bnUS$58.50mn 7,333mn23%Rmb17.48-Rmb11.47注：現(xiàn)價(jià)Rmb15.75為2023年3月13日收盤價(jià)l2022年收入增長主要系焦化三期項(xiàng)目投產(chǎn)，產(chǎn)量上升加之價(jià)格上漲，利潤下滑主要系原材料煤炭價(jià)格出現(xiàn)較大幅度上漲。1）分產(chǎn)品看，聚乙烯、聚丙烯、焦炭、純苯、改制瀝青及MTBE累計(jì)收入分別變化-2.84%、2.08%、42.10%、21.19%、57.91%、27.82%至52.55、48.79、126.85、5.33、6.96、6.33億元，銷售均價(jià)（不含稅）分別變化1.82%、-3.43%、3.92%、14.90%、34.56%、29.99%至0.75、0.74、0.20、0.67、0.57、0.66萬元/噸。2）2022年公司銷售毛利率和銷售凈利率分別為32.87%/22.17%，同比變動-來源:MSCIESGResearchLLC,盟浪.Reproducedbypermission;nofurtherdistribution發(fā)行股票數(shù)目Rmb115.50bn/US$16.58bnUS$58.50mn 7,333mn23%Rmb17.48-Rmb11.47注：現(xiàn)價(jià)Rmb15.75為2023年3月13日收盤價(jià)l公司積極推進(jìn)重大項(xiàng)目建設(shè)，多個重大項(xiàng)目推進(jìn)提高產(chǎn)能，規(guī)模優(yōu)勢明顯。焦化三期、電解水制氫等項(xiàng)目先后建成投產(chǎn)，公司所有在建產(chǎn)能包括三期烯烴項(xiàng)目的50萬噸/年煤制烯烴、50萬噸/年C2-C5綜合利用制烯烴，以及內(nèi)蒙烯烴項(xiàng)目的300萬噸/年聚乙烯、聚丙烯。三期烯烴項(xiàng)目建設(shè)進(jìn)展順利，截至2022年末，甲醇工段已具備投產(chǎn)條件，烯烴將于2023年年內(nèi)投產(chǎn)。內(nèi)蒙古寶豐煤基新材料有限公司一期260萬噸/年煤制烯烴和配套40萬噸/年植入綠氫耦合制烯烴項(xiàng)目得到生態(tài)環(huán)境部環(huán)評批復(fù)，并且已于2023年3絕對值絕對值（美元）相對MSCIChina(Rmbmn)營業(yè)收入(+/-)凈利潤(+/-)全面攤薄EPS(Rmb)毛利率凈資產(chǎn)收益率市盈率資料來源：公司信息,HTIDec-22A28,430 22%6,303-11%0.8632.9%18.6%1mth6.8%4.3%17.1%Dec-23E34,283 21%7,80224%1.0633.1%18.7%絕對值絕對值（美元）相對MSCIChina(Rmbmn)營業(yè)收入(+/-)凈利潤(+/-)全面攤薄EPS(Rmb)毛利率凈資產(chǎn)收益率市盈率資料來源：公司信息,HTIDec-22A28,430 22%6,303-11%0.8632.9%18.6%1mth6.8%4.3%17.1%Dec-23E34,283 21%7,80224%1.0633.1%18.7%3mth12.1%11.8%14.5%Dec-24E43,019 25%11,17243%1.5237.0%21.1%12mth-4.7%-13.5%3.0%Dec-25E50,340 17%13,43320%1.8337.6%20.3%8l盈利預(yù)測與參考評級。由于原材料成本上漲導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)品毛利有所下滑，我們下調(diào)對公司的盈利預(yù)測。我們預(yù)計(jì)2023-2024年公司歸母凈利潤分別為78.02（-35%）、111.72（+8%）、134.33億元（新引入），參考同行業(yè)可比公司估值，我們認(rèn)為合理的估值為2023年17倍PE，對應(yīng)合理價(jià)值為18.02元（原為2022年16.8xPER，對應(yīng)目標(biāo)價(jià)19.35元，-7%），維持“優(yōu)于大市”評l風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示。在建項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度低于預(yù)期，原材料市場價(jià)格波動。213Mar202321）價(jià)格假設(shè)：a.焦炭：2023-2025年，預(yù)計(jì)不含稅均價(jià)均為0.19萬元/噸；b.烯烴：我們預(yù)計(jì)聚乙烯2023-2025年不含稅均價(jià)均為0.76萬元/噸；聚丙烯：2023-2025年，預(yù)計(jì)不含稅均價(jià)均為0.75萬元/噸。2）銷量假設(shè)：根據(jù)寶豐能源2022年年度報(bào)告，300萬噸/年煤焦化多聯(lián)產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目已順利投產(chǎn)，公司焦化產(chǎn)能已達(dá)到700萬噸/年，我們預(yù)計(jì)焦炭2023-2025年銷量為665.0、700.0、770.0萬噸。寧東三期50萬噸/年煤制烯烴及50萬噸/年C2-C5綜合利用制烯烴項(xiàng)目建設(shè)進(jìn)展順利，截至2022年末，甲醇工段已具備投產(chǎn)條件，烯烴將于2023年年內(nèi)投產(chǎn)。另外，據(jù)公司2022年年報(bào)及關(guān)于內(nèi)蒙300萬噸每年烯烴項(xiàng)目獲得環(huán)評批復(fù)的公告顯示，內(nèi)蒙一期260萬噸/年煤制烯烴和配套40萬噸/年植入綠氫耦合制烯烴項(xiàng)目已于2023年3月開工建設(shè)，計(jì)劃用18個月建成投產(chǎn)，屆時公司聚烯烴產(chǎn)能將達(dá)到520萬噸/年，因此我們預(yù)計(jì)聚乙烯2023-2025年銷量為89.3、129.3、165.5萬噸，聚丙烯2023-2025年銷量為109.3、151.3、178.0萬噸。項(xiàng)目2022313Mar20233公司名稱413Mar20234每股凈資產(chǎn)4.625.687.219.04毛利率%每股經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流0.901.582.252.70每股股利0.180.000.00P/E17.93P/S3.97股息率%1.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用盈利能力指標(biāo)（%）財(cái)務(wù)費(fèi)用率%毛利率32.9%凈利潤率22.2%22.8%26.資產(chǎn)回報(bào)率10.9%投資回報(bào)率14.3%盈利增長（%）EBIT增長率-7.6%22.4%凈利潤增長率-10.9%23.8%43.2%20.2%償債能力指標(biāo)歸屬資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率41.2%47.0%流動比率0.390.370.390.41速動比率0.210.200.170.21資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表（百萬元）現(xiàn)金比率0.190.160.130.16貨幣資金經(jīng)營效率指標(biāo)應(yīng)收賬款及應(yīng)收票據(jù)應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)0.690.700.600.60存貨存貨周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù)21.5820.0022.00總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率0.560.500.500.52流動資產(chǎn)合計(jì)固定資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率1.14 無形資產(chǎn)4664466446644664現(xiàn)金流量表（百萬元）20222023E2024E2025E凈利潤6303非現(xiàn)金支出12928183543非經(jīng)營收益369資產(chǎn)-9977-24353投資-4350投資活動現(xiàn)金流-11177-24373-19366-8471負(fù)債總計(jì)債權(quán)募資802913000股權(quán)募資00其他-3560-523-770-673融資活動現(xiàn)金流4469124772730-10673現(xiàn)金凈流量-81-292-139），513Mar20235APPENDIX1SummaryBaofengEnergyannounceditsannualreportfor2022.In2022,thecompanyachievedoperatingrevenueofRMB28.43bn(+22.02%YoY);TheNPAtSwasRMB6.303bn(down10.86%YoY).Therevenuegrowthin2022ismainlyduetotheproductionofthethirdphasecokingproject,theincreaseinoutputandtheincreaseinprice,andthedecreaseinprofitismainlyduetothelargeincreaseinthepriceofrawmaterialcoal.1)Fromtheperspectiveofproducts,thecumulativeincomeofpolyethylene,polypropylene,coke,purebenzene,modifiedasphaltandMTBEchangedby-2.84%,2.08%,42.10%,21.19%,57.91%,27.82%to52.55,48.79,126.85,5.33,696and633mnrespectively,andtheaveragesalesprice(excludingtax)changedby1.82%,-3.43%,3.92%,14.90%,34.56%,29.99%to0.75,0.74,0.20,0.67,0.57and0.66mn/tonrespectively.2)In2022,thecompany'sgrossprofitmarginandnetprofitmarginonsaleswere32.87%/22.17%respectively(-9.34pct/-8.18pctYoY),mainlydueto+37.93%YoYinthepriceofrawmaterialcoal.3)Therateofthreeexpensesdecreasedby0.49pctto3.45%YoY.Theratioofsales,management(includingR&D)andfinancialexpensesdecreasedby0.01,0.19and0.29pctto0.25%,2.38%and0.82%YoY.In2022,theproportionofR&Dexpensestorevenuewas0.53%,down0.04pctYoY.Thecompanyactivelypromotestheconstructionofmajorprojects,andseveralmajorprojectspromotetheimprovementofproductioncapacity,withobviousscaleadvantages.CokingPhaseIII,electrolyticwaterhydrogenproductionandotherprojectshavebeencompletedandputintooperation.Allthecapacityunderconstructionofthecompanyinclude500000tons/yearofcoal-to-olefin,500000tons/yearofC2-C5comprehensiveutilizationtoolefin,and3mntons/yearofpolyethyleneandpolypropylenefortheInnerMongoliaolefinproject.TheconstructionofPhaseIIIolefinprojectisprogressingsmoothly.Bytheendof2022,themethanolsectionhasbeenreadyforproduction,andtheolefinwillbeputintoproductionin2023.InnerMongoliaBaofengCoal-basedNewMaterialsCo.,Ltd.PhaseI2.6mntons/yearcoal-to-olefinandsupporting400000tons/yeargreenhydrogencouplingolefinprojecthasbeenapprovedbytheMinistryofEcologyandEnvironmentofthePeople'sRepublicofChina,andhascommencedconstructioninMarch2023.Thecompanystrengthenstechnologicalinnovationandmanagement,andcontinuouslyreducestheenergyandmaterialconsumptionofproducts.Thefirstolefinplanthasincreasedsteamoutputby17128tonsandsavedenergyby1665tonsofstandardcoalthroughthetransformationofwasteheatboiler;TheperformanceimprovementofMTOmainfanwasimplemented,andthepowerconsumptiondecreasedby14.8%;Thecomprehensiveenergyconsumptionoftheproductsofthesecondolefinplantdecreasedby2.6kgstandardcoal/tonpolyolefin,arecordlow;Comparedwiththepreviousyear,thecoalalcoholconsumptionofMethanolPlant2decreasedby0.015tons/ton,andtheconsumptionofrawcoaldecreasedby40000tonsthroughouttheyear;Intheprocessoftechnicaltransformation,non-conversiongaswasaddedintotheconversiongastosupplementcarbon,andtheunitconsumptionofcokeovengasdecreasedfrom2000standardcubicmeters/tonofmethanolto1890standardcubicmeters/tonofmethanol.Earningsforecastandinvestmentrating.Duetothedeclineinproductgrossprofitduetorisingrawmaterialcosts,wehaveloweredourearningsforecastforthecompany.Weestimatethatthecompany'snetprofitattributabletoshareholdersin2022-2024willbeRmb7.802bn(-35%),Rmb11.172bn(+8%),andRmb13.433bn(new).Combinedwiththevaluationofcomparablecompanies,wevaluethecompanyatFY22EPERof17xwithatargetpriceofRmb18.02(thepreviousTPwasRmb19.35basedonaFY22EPERof16.8x).Wemaintainthe"OUTPERFORM"rating.Risks.Theprogressofprojectsunderconstructionislowerthanexpected,andthemarketpriceofrawmaterialsfluctuates.67下下89