策略深度研究-海外中資股：2023年報(bào)總結(jié)

正文目錄總量概覽：營(yíng)收增速與ROE邊際上行，經(jīng)營(yíng)性現(xiàn)金流與盈利增速分化 3盈利結(jié)構(gòu)：能源ROE高且穩(wěn)定、消費(fèi)/互聯(lián)網(wǎng)OCF與ROE改善明顯 10資本開(kāi)支：結(jié)構(gòu)上尋找具備產(chǎn)能供給優(yōu)勢(shì)或壓力下降雙主線(xiàn) 14庫(kù)存周期：去庫(kù)接近完成，等待周期磨底 20附錄 22風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示 26總量概覽：營(yíng)收增速與ROE邊際上行，經(jīng)營(yíng)性現(xiàn)金流與盈利增速分化2024/5/3（港股中資股與美股中概股）23年年報(bào)已基本披露完畢（具體分行業(yè)披露率情況可參考附錄（PPI和工業(yè)增加值累計(jì)同比之和衡量年內(nèi)或出現(xiàn)底部拐點(diǎn)大致匹結(jié)構(gòu)來(lái)看，2H23（含部分電新鏈上游等）等少數(shù)行業(yè)出現(xiàn)較明顯的環(huán)比下行，營(yíng)收增速的修復(fù)廣度較高。此外，對(duì)于部分金融板塊，須注意當(dāng)前會(huì)計(jì)準(zhǔn)則下投資收益已計(jì)入整體營(yíng)收的計(jì)算口徑中（詳情可見(jiàn)相關(guān)企業(yè)合并損益表具體情況圖表1：海外中概股營(yíng)收增速底部或已在1H23確認(rèn) 圖表2：但非金融地產(chǎn)海外中概股歸母凈潤(rùn)底部拐點(diǎn)仍未現(xiàn)全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地產(chǎn)）營(yíng)收增速全部港美中概股（去重）營(yíng)收增速40%全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地產(chǎn)）營(yíng)收增速全部港美中概股（去重）營(yíng)收增速30%20%10%0%-10%1H111H182H181H192H191H202H201H212H211H222H221H232H23-20%1H111H182H181H192H191H202H201H212H211H222H221H232H23

60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%

全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地產(chǎn)）歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速全部港美中概股（去重）歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速資料來(lái)源：， 資料來(lái)源：，圖表3：海外中概股營(yíng)收增速和名義經(jīng)濟(jì)間具備較強(qiáng)相關(guān)性（1） 圖表4：海外中概股營(yíng)收增速和名義經(jīng)濟(jì)間具備較強(qiáng)相關(guān)性（2）30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%1H12-20%1H12

非金融地產(chǎn)港美中資股營(yíng)收TTMyoyPPI+工業(yè)增加值(%,RHS)

25201510501H23(5)1H23

25y=47.399x+3.6811R2=0.759520y=47.399x+3.6811R2=0.7595PPI+工業(yè)增加值PPI+工業(yè)增加值(%)1050(5)-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%非金融地產(chǎn)港美中資股營(yíng)收TTMyoy注：PPI和工業(yè)增加值皆用累計(jì)同比口徑資料來(lái)源：，

資料來(lái)源：，圖表5：廣度來(lái)看，2H23營(yíng)收增速普遍邊際上行，僅能源、汽車(chē)與半導(dǎo)體等少數(shù)行業(yè)出現(xiàn)較明顯的環(huán)比下行全部港美中資股一級(jí)分類(lèi)二級(jí)分類(lèi) 三級(jí)分類(lèi) 1H18 2H18 1H19 2H19 1H20 2H20 1H21 2H21 1H22 2H22 1H23 2H232H23環(huán)比1H23環(huán)比當(dāng)前分位數(shù)趨勢(shì)圖差分 差分

自2H11能源

14.1% 13.0%

2.2%

-15.4%

-17.5%

8.7%

37.0%

30.6%

10.6%

-3.2%

-5.8%

-2.6%

-13.8%

25%材料

13.1%

9.0%

7.9%

4.1%

15.1%

35.1%

29.4%

9.8%

-5.1%

-8.4%

-1.3%

7.1%

-3.3%

25%金屬、非金屬與采礦

15.8%

2.8%

1.0%

7.0%

8.1%

18.1%

40.3%

39.2%

17.3%

1.2%

-4.6%

-0.8%

3.8%

-5.8%

21%化工

14.9%

3.7%

-4.5%

-11.7%

-2.8%

20.9%

35.0%

26.1%

-3.7%

-20.5%

-2.7%

17.8%

-16.7%

50%建材Ⅲ

45.9%

35.7%

13.4%

-0.7%

12.9%

26.7%

8.4%

-9.9%

-22.4%

-17.0%

-1.6%

15.4%

5.4%

25%容器與包裝

40.3%

11.1%

-8.9%

-5.8%

7.3%

32.2%

22.4%

2.9%

-11.5%

-10.2%

-5.5%

4.7%

1.3%

21%紙與林木產(chǎn)品

23.4%

-11.5%

-23.7%

1.5%

7.9%

5.3%

22.7%

11.0%

-7.0%

-11.0%

-20.1%

-17.1%

-9.1% 8%工業(yè) 14.8%

5.8% 6.3%

8.7%

0.4%

11.5%

31.7%

21.4%

3.1%

-3.2% -3.2%

4.0%

7.2%

0.0%

38%資本貨物

14.6%

5.0%

9.2%

3.2%

15.8%

33.0%

17.0%

0.2%

-3.0%

-1.1%

5.5%

6.6%

1.9%

42%電氣設(shè)備

14.3%

5.6%

-0.9%10.5%-0.9%

7.3%

18.1%

31.0%

4.9%

-9.9%

-4.7%

-1.9%

6.1%

8.0%

2.8%

54%機(jī)械

6.1% 3.3%

-1.9%

19.3%

41.8%

14.4%

-18.8%-19.5%

-1.6%

9.2%

10.8%

17.9%

58%商業(yè)和專(zhuān)業(yè)服務(wù)

9.4%

18.7% 18.1%

12.8%

15.4%

28.2%

17.9%

-2.2%

-18.3%-18.6%

-4.5%

14.1%

-0.3%

13%運(yùn)輸

9.2% 9.1%

-13.1%

-8.7%

24.7%

46.8%

18.8%

-2.8%

-11.5%

-2.5%

9.0%

-8.7%

29%可選消費(fèi)

20.7%

11.5%

5.6%

9.6%

2.9%

19.0%

43.7%

29.7%

8.9%

5.1%

9.8%

15.7%

5.9% 4.7%

67%汽車(chē)與汽車(chē)零部件

14.6%

0.0%

-7.4%

-2.6%

-6.5%

15.3%

42.8%

25.0%

8.5%

20.9%

29.8%

26.2%

-3.6%

8.9%

83%耐用消費(fèi)品與服裝

14.7%

10.5%

5.8%

-2.1%

8.9%

33.8%

25.7%

7.8%

-3.7%

8.1%

12.2%

-0.4%

50%消費(fèi)者服務(wù)Ⅱ

32.6%

18.0%

7.0%

17.7%

-4.4%

2.2%

45.6%

33.1%

-5.0%

-17.6%

-0.3%

24.6%

25.0%

17.3%

83%媒體Ⅱ

16.3%

34.3%

24.2%

4.4%

8.7%

25.6%

19.6%

-6.4%

-8.3%

-5.7%

-3.9%

1.8%

17%零售業(yè)

32.2%

23.6%

19.0%

15.4%

31.5%

49.6%

34.9%

12.5%

2.7%

4.2%

10.5%

6.3% 1.5% 8%日常消費(fèi)

1.8%

3.9% 3.8%

9.0%

7.0%

8.9%

14.0%

14.0%

1.1%

-3.5%

-0.8%

0.4%

1.2% 2.7%

25%食品與主要用品零售Ⅱ

1.8%

-2.2%

1.2%

3.2%

3.8%

13.3%

19.0%

10.1%

-2.5%

-9.0%

-8.8%

-3.0%

5.8%

0.2%

25%食品、飲料與煙草

1.9%

4.7%

9.8%

7.5%

8.3%

13.6%

14.6%

1.5%

-2.7%

0.4%

-0.1%

3.1%

21%家庭與個(gè)人用品

-8.2%

-2.5%

1.9%

-1.2%

12.0%

-5.4%

8.8%

-11.2%

-13.3%

40.2%

53.5%

-2.1%

96%醫(yī)療保健

14.9%

19.1%

25.6%

17.6%

1.0%

9.9%

34.1%

30.9%

6.2%

-6.9%

0.1%

6.0%

5.9% 7.0%

17%醫(yī)療保健設(shè)備與服務(wù)

11.2%

17.7%

27.7%

18.8%

2.2%

13.3%

28.7%

17.4%

3.4%

-2.4%

3.5%

4.2%

29%制藥、生物科技與生命科學(xué)

20.8% 21.2%

16.0%

-0.7%

5.0%

42.1%

52.1%

10.1%

-12.4%

-4.2%

3.8%

8.0%

17%金融

-0.2%

2.7%

10.2%

5.1%

11.7%

16.5%

11.7%

2.8%

-9.7%

-19.7%

-16.9%

2.8%

-10.1% 4%銀行

-0.1%

2.0%

6.5%

1.6%

9.1%

16.0%

13.8%

7.6%

-6.1%

-11.5%

-3.6%

8.0%

-5.4%

21%多元金融

7.3%

-8.2%

0.9%

18.3%

9.0%

22.6%

36.2%

10.7%

-24.6%

-25.0%

-5.1%

19.9%

-0.4%

29%保險(xiǎn)Ⅱ

16.7%

1.6%

3.8%

12.0%

7.4%

14.3%

15.6%

5.0%

-3.1%

-8.7%

-25.9%

-31.6%

-5.7%

-17.1% 0%房地產(chǎn)

29.1%

25.2%

26.6%

13.6%

23.3%

38.3%

17.4%

-7.2%

-19.7%

-13.4%

1.8%

15.2%

6.3%

13%信息技術(shù)

21.8%

15.4%

10.3% 12.6%

6.8%

25.1%

37.8%

26.2%

7.2%

-2.5%

-2.3%

2.7%

4.9%

0.3%

13%軟件與服務(wù)

38.4%

26.0%

17.2%

8.6%

27.8%

35.3%

24.5%

5.9%

-5.4%

-1.6%

7.3%

8.9%

3.7%

17%技術(shù)硬件與設(shè)備

-0.2%

7.0%

13.2%

8.7%

22.5%

40.0%

24.9%

-1.0%

-10.3%-10.2%

-0.7%

9.6%

0.1%

17%半導(dǎo)體與半導(dǎo)體生產(chǎn)設(shè)備

16.1%

-1.6%

-12.7%-14.6%

-10.8%

16.5%

46.4%

54.3%

49.1%

18.0%

-10.0%

-28.1%

-31.1%

21%電信服務(wù)

6.9%

-2.1%

-3.8%

-0.7%

-1.6%

10.4%

20.4%

13.2%

5.9%

0.1% -0.2%

5.2%

5.4%

-0.3%

50%公用事業(yè)

25.3%

13.0%

6.9%

4.4%

-1.5%

6.5%

22.8%

13.5%

5.7%

1.6% 1.9%

0.3%

-4.0%

21%全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地產(chǎn)）營(yíng)收增速10.2%-3.6%26.1%26.9%11.9%1.6%-1.3%2.4%37%全部港美中概股（去重）營(yíng)收增速8.4%-0.2%24.8%22.2%7.9%-3.0%-6.5%-1.8%21%注：本表是營(yíng)收情況，根據(jù)GICS的行業(yè)組進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分類(lèi)資料來(lái)源：，歸母凈利潤(rùn)視角，全口徑海外中資股底部拐點(diǎn)或在2H22確認(rèn)、但非金融地產(chǎn)海外中資股盈利在2H23進(jìn)一步下行。結(jié)構(gòu)上，能源、材料、工業(yè)、軟件與服務(wù)和半導(dǎo)體是主要拖累非金融地產(chǎn)盈利增速的行業(yè)，而亮點(diǎn)在于可選消費(fèi)與醫(yī)藥。利潤(rùn)率視角，結(jié)構(gòu)性因素、和非經(jīng)常性因素都存在拖累盈利增速的主要原因。結(jié)構(gòu)視角，考慮非金融地產(chǎn)海外中資股中上游資源品（如三桶油等）占比較大CRB（商品價(jià)格指數(shù)23H2整體而1H24仍承壓，而這亦在一季報(bào)中得以體現(xiàn)。圖表6：海外中概股凈利率和商品價(jià)格之間具備較強(qiáng)相關(guān)性（1） 圖表7：海外中概股凈利率和商品價(jià)格之具備較強(qiáng)相關(guān)性（2）6.0%

CRB半年度均值(RHS)

650

650y=8225.6x+50.669R2=0.516600y=8225.6x+50.669R2=0.5165.5%5.0%4.5%4.0%

600550500450400

550CRB半年度均值CRB半年度均值4504001H121H131H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

350

350

3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5%非金融地產(chǎn)港美中資股凈利率TTM資料來(lái)源：， 資料來(lái)源：，非經(jīng)常性因素包括投資性損失和安檢等原因。投資性損失方面，考慮個(gè)別新經(jīng)濟(jì)權(quán)重股利2H231Q24盈利。圖表8：結(jié)構(gòu)來(lái)看，能源、材料、工業(yè)、軟件與服務(wù)和半導(dǎo)體是主要拖累非金融地產(chǎn)盈利增速的行業(yè)，而亮點(diǎn)在于可選消費(fèi)與醫(yī)藥全部港美中資股一級(jí)分類(lèi)二級(jí)分類(lèi) 三級(jí)分類(lèi) 1H18 2H18 1H19 2H19 1H20 2H20 1H21 2H21 1H22 2H22 1H23 2H232H23環(huán)比1H23環(huán)比當(dāng)前分位數(shù)趨勢(shì)圖差分 差分 2H11能源 53.2% 47.4%

14.6%

-3.1%

-61.9%

-42.9%

256.0%

168.9%

41.3% 38.6%

-3.2%

-10.2%

-7.0%

-41.7%

33%材料

38.8%

-2.0%

-18.8%

-22.6%

21.9%

91.3%

58.0%

11.5%

-20.1%

-46.0%

-31.5%

14.5%

-25.9%

33%金屬、非金屬與采礦

137.5%

12.0%

-34.8%

-59.9%-61.7%

85.5%

429.6%

155.3%

48.3%

6.1%

-39.0%

-32.4%

6.6%

-45.2%

46%化工

192.5%

116.6%

-21.6%

-41.2%

-51.3%

59.6%

227.1%

48.4%

43.1%

13.3%

5.8%

-7.5%

-29.8%

46%建材Ⅲ

105.7%

82.1%

38.8%

16.3%

0.8%

10.3%

20.5%

2.8%

-20.8%

-55.6%

-63.7%

-39.8%

23.9%

-8.1%

21%容器與包裝

-18.7%

-137.3%

-84.8%

146.1%

-192.1%

-378.2%

-170.6%

-70.6%

-320.1%

-136.0%

-33.0%

14.8%

47.8%

103.0%

79%紙與林木產(chǎn)品

37.6%

-43.0%-80.1%-51.8%

37.0%

-18.1%

115.2%125.2%

-94.3%-91.6%

-592.1%

-166.8%

425.3%

-500.5% 4%工業(yè) 13.6%

-1.6%

2.0%

13.7%

-17.6%

-15.1%

62.9%

40.6%

11.9%

4.3%

-22.2%

-15.1%

7.1%

-26.5%

29%資本貨物

11.7%

1.5%

2.8%

9.9%

-6.4%

10.0%

40.7%

1.9%

-18.6%

-6.2%

-1.2%

4.8%

6.0%

5.0%

54%電氣設(shè)備

14.8%

-6.2%

1.5%

7.6%

-7.8%

21.3%

-6.0%

-107.8%

-126.9%

394.6%389.8%

220.5%

-169.3%

-4.8%

92%機(jī)械

5.0%

5.4%

12.6%

4.6%

45.1%

57.3%

-7.9%

-44.5%

-35.1%

2.0%

24.1%

22.2%

37.1%

79%商業(yè)和專(zhuān)業(yè)服務(wù)

2.0%

-0.1%

-1.3%

6.0%

14.4%

34.2%

42.7%

5.9%

-18.3%-18.2%

-10.3%

-17.6%

-7.3%

7.9% 8%運(yùn)輸

-9.3%

0.2%

25.6%

-50.0%

-82.2%

176.9%

882.0%

113.3%

29.2%

-48.5%

-46.3%

2.2%

-77.7%

25%可選消費(fèi)

25.0%

-113.8%

-72.6%

783.0%

254.2%

-8.0%

97.9%

-5.7%

-28.7%

40.7%

97.8%

-16.7%

57.0%

83%汽車(chē)與汽車(chē)零部件

16.0%

2.3%

-19.9%

-28.7%

-35.1%

-6.5%

90.0%

43.3%

-17.5%

-4.9%

27.9%

35.0%

7.1%

32.8%

83%耐用消費(fèi)品與服裝

21.8%

-3.3%

2.5%

30.4%

-18.7%

7.8%

122.0%

52.7%

-10.7%

-27.2%

-21.1%

16.0%

37.1%

6.0%

67%消費(fèi)者服務(wù)Ⅱ

34.7%

8.8%

18.1%

-60.7%

-48.8%

248.8%

47.4%

-59.1%

-80.2%

80.8%

902.1%

821.3%

161.0%

100%媒體Ⅱ

405.5%

-20.8%

-4.4%

469.2%

-49.5%

-228.2%

179.5%

171.0%

648.8%

8.3%

10.6%

29.8%

19.2%

2.2%

71%零售業(yè)

123.6%

-974.7%

-132.3%

113.1%126.3%87.6%

-0.9%

-205.3%-205.8%

234.5%

912.3%

153.0%

-759.3%

677.8%

88%日常消費(fèi)

57.8%

-27.2%

-32.1%

77.0%

56.2%

18.5%

70.1%

28.1%

2.7%

-3.4%

-8.9%

0.5%

9.3% -5.5%

54%食品與主要用品零售Ⅱ

122.9%

-42.8%

-96.6%

-131.6%

-91.1%

-152.6%

11.3%

36.0%

-33.5%

29.3%

-54.2%

-93.5%

10.0%

42%食品、飲料與煙草

53.8%

-23.9%-26.0%

74.4%

51.6%

20.7%

66.9%

25.0%

3.5%

-4.5%

-10.1%

-0.4%

9.6%

-5.6%

54%家庭與個(gè)人用品

-658.1%

-496.6%

-340.3%

68.7%

97.1%

133.9%

-689.7%

-2.1% -21.3%

173.8%

76.4%

-97.4%

167.9%

79%醫(yī)療保健

41.4%

7.0% 2.2%

-23.3%

-31.2%

3.9%

212.5%

232.2%

-9.2%

-70.2%

-45.3%

43.0%

88.3%

24.9%

92%醫(yī)療保健設(shè)備與服務(wù)

27.6%

-8.5%

5.7%

11.5%

-10.5%

16.5%

50.8%

-8.8%

-13.4%

2.6%

-2.9%

20.3%

23.2%

-5.5%

67%制藥、生物科技與生命科學(xué)

48.3%

13.2%

1.0%

-34.7%-39.2%

-3.3%

313.5%

407.2%

-8.2%

-78.9%

-55.3%

56.5%

111.7%

23.6%

88%金融 11.1%

-3.0%

1.8%

12.0%

-6.4%

0.0%

17.2%

19.1%

3.4%

-10.4%

-4.9%

2.8%

7.7% 5.5%

38%銀行

0.1%

3.8%

-7.8%

5.7%

20.4%

14.7%

5.3%

-2.2%

0.9%

3.7%

38%多元金融

-11.0%

-27.8%

-11.5%

27.1%

13.8%

-59.8%

-37.5%

317.9%

87.1%

-57.9%

-34.8%

22.4%

57.3%

23.0%

67%保險(xiǎn)Ⅱ

49.2%

-7.3%

20.8%

66.8%

-6.8%

-1.9%

27.6%

-8.7%

-26.6%

-25.6%

-1.4%

9.9%

11.4%

24.2%

50%房地產(chǎn)

54.7%

6.6% 7.6%

18.3%

0.1%

10.7%

21.6%

-54.7%

-90.6%

-146.3%

-570.4%

-59.8%

510.6%

-424.1%

13%信息技術(shù)

44.9%

95.9%

9.2%

-1.9%

20.3%

0.8%

197.9%

84.1%

14.0%

28.1%

47.8%

-19.0%

-66.8%

19.8% 8%軟件與服務(wù)

46.8%

12.0%

-15.9%

-11.6%

17.0%

-18.7%

254.6%

94.0%

26.2%

38.5%

67.7%

-12.8%

-80.5%

29.2%

13%技術(shù)硬件與設(shè)備

43.8%

142.6%

239.8%

56.9%

23.6%

62.9%

104.6%

1.4%

-64.2%-60.2%

20.2%

91.6%

71.4%

79%半導(dǎo)體與半導(dǎo)體生產(chǎn)設(shè)備

16.1%

-43.8%

-65.5%

-1.5%

149.2%

14.4%

245.1%

571.1%

165.2%

89.4%

10.6%

-61.6%

-72.2%-78.8%

13%電信服務(wù)

11.4%

5.8%

-3.7%

-7.2%

-4.0%

9.2%

19.1%

14.0%

10.2%

-0.2%

-1.8%

5.2%

7.1% -1.6%

63%公用事業(yè)

42.9%

-10.9%-15.2%

11.0% 3.8% 13.4%

54.3%

-19.6%

-81.5%

-6.0%

274.8%

51.1%

-223.7%

280.9%

88%全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地產(chǎn)）歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速

34.1%

6.1%

-3.0%

13.4%

-14.0%

-9.6%

100.1%

57.3%

7.4% 8.5%

0.3%

-2.3%

-2.7% -8.1%

38%全部港美中概股（去重）歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速資料來(lái)源：，

21.6%

0.8% 0.7%

13.1%

-8.3%

-2.1%

41.6%

22.5%

-4.3%

-8.6% -8.4%

-0.5%

7.8% 0.3%

33%圖表9：當(dāng)前一季報(bào)來(lái)看，營(yíng)收亦顯示能源與材料行業(yè)營(yíng)收增速或在1Q24進(jìn)一步承壓全部港美中資股一級(jí)分類(lèi)二級(jí)分類(lèi) 三級(jí)分類(lèi)2021-12-312022-03-312022-06-302022-09-302022-12-312023-03-312023-06-302023-09-302023-12-312024-03-31當(dāng)前披露率能源 36.2% 46.1% 30.0% 19.1% 9.6% 2.8% -4.1% -1.8% -6.4% -6.9% 材料 28.3% 23.6% 8.6% -1.6% -5.8% -7.4% -7.8% -0.7% -2.0% -7.0% 金屬、非金屬與采礦 39.8% 36.3% 18.3% 6.2% 1.8% -2.0% -3.9% 2.1% -1.9% -6.5% 化工 50.3% 30.8% 19.0% 6.3% -0.1% 2.3% -6.8% -15.2% -5.6% 建材Ⅲ 8.8% 2.1% -9.8% -17.6% -22.8% -20.5% -17.2% -7.6% -1.2% -8.4% 容器與包裝 -17.0% -16.5% -30.5% -28.9% -25.5% -23.9% -11.1% -9.7% -26.7% 紙與林木產(chǎn)品 10.7% -6.1% -7.7% -12.3% -11.2% -12.4% -20.1% -20.2% -17.6% -11.1% 工業(yè) 19.0% 13.5% 1.3% -5.1% -5.1% -5.6% -4.5% 1.9% 4.1% 2.2% 資本貨物 14.8% 9.0% -1.2% -5.9% -4.1% -3.4% -2.6% 3.8% 4.9% 1.1% 電氣設(shè)備 1.7% -1.6% -11.0% -16.8% -10.3% -11.2% -4.6% 3.6% 1.2% 2.3% 機(jī)械 16.1% 1.8% -14.0% -18.0% -17.6% -11.1% -3.6% 4.1% 6.5% 4.9% 商業(yè)和專(zhuān)業(yè)服務(wù) 41.7% 40.8% 32.5% 23.4% -7.4% -11.6% -14.8% -10.4% -8.4% 4.1% 運(yùn)輸 42.9% 39.9% 14.0% -1.7% -10.0% -15.2% -13.0% -6.6% 0.8% 6.6% 可選消費(fèi) 31.0% 24.7% 12.9% 10.0% 9.7% 10.6% 14.4% 19.3% 19.2% 14.3% 汽車(chē)與汽車(chē)零部件 29.8% 23.4% 17.4% 25.5% 30.8% 32.4% 38.5% 38.5% 32.2% 17.9% 耐用消費(fèi)品與服裝 11.7% 9.6% 2.5% -1.1% -2.2% -1.4% -1.3% 4.5% 5.8% 3.1% 消費(fèi)者服務(wù)Ⅱ 26.4% 12.0% -5.8% -10.3% -14.2% -8.2% 4.9% 15.0% 24.9% 10.3% 媒體Ⅱ 12.7% 5.9% -7.6% -14.6% -13.9% -9.9% -5.6% 0.1% -0.6% 5.3% 零售業(yè) 37.2% 31.2% 15.8% 7.6% 4.2% 3.5% 5.2% 10.9% 12.7% 日常消費(fèi) 31.5% 17.0% 3.2% -3.5% -8.4% -6.2% -8.2% -5.4% -2.8% 食品與主要用品零售Ⅱ 55.9% 44.8% 17.5% 1.8% -0.4% 2.9% 6.1% 15.1% 9.0% 食品、飲料與煙草 25.6% 10.3% -0.6% -4.9% -10.8% -9.1% -12.8% -12.0% -7.0% 家庭與個(gè)人用品 -0.6% -6.6% -7.3% -14.5% -16.0% -10.5% -6.4% 2.9% 6.6% 0%醫(yī)療保健

20.0%

16.6%

6.4%

1.8%

-0.3%

1.7%

3.5%

6.8% 6.3%

1.5%

32%醫(yī)療保健設(shè)備與服務(wù)

17.0%

14.0%

3.3%

-1.1%

-2.6%

0.3%

3.6%

7.6%

2.6%

99%制藥、生物科技與生命科學(xué)

30.9%

25.7%

17.3%

11.8%

7.1%

6.1%

3.2%

4.4%

2.0%

-4.2%

23%金融 10.6% 11.2%

1.8%

-3.7%

-9.6% -11.8%

-19.5%

-10.6%

-16.4%

-18.3%

89%銀行 14.7%

20.2%8.4%20.2%

1.7%

-6.1%

-9.0%

-11.9%

-6.5%

-3.6%

-4.1%

88%多元金融

29.4%

25.3%

0.9%

-8.4%

-29.1%

-31.8%

-24.8%

-22.7%

-7.8%

-5.8%

84%保險(xiǎn)Ⅱ

4.2%

0.7%

-4.6%

-8.7%

-10.2%

-27.3%

-13.6%

-31.9%

-36.0%

96%房地產(chǎn)

12.7%

4.9%

0.9%

-3.0%

-4.9%

1.0%

-5.3%

-9.8%

-4.5%

-12.9%

15%信息技術(shù)

26.5%

21.6%

7.2%

-1.5%

-5.8% -5.7%

-4.5%

1.0%

2.8%

-11.2% 1%軟件與服務(wù)

22.5%

18.3%

5.0%

-4.3%

-7.0%

-4.5%

-1.5%

6.9%

8.2% 0%技術(shù)硬件與設(shè)備

30.7%

21.1%

1.3%

-7.6%

-15.5%

-17.0%

-15.4%

-10.2%

-3.7%

-2.7%

15%半導(dǎo)體與半導(dǎo)體生產(chǎn)設(shè)備

56.0%

68.5%

62.3%

55.0%

33.1%

10.9%

-4.9%

-13.9%

-50.3% 5%電信服務(wù)

13.2%

14.2%

6.0%

1.3%-0.1% -0.3% 0.7% 0.4%1.3%

5.5%

4.9%

1.2%

100%公用事業(yè)

20.5%

21.6%

12.0%

7.9%

4.1%

0.6%

1.9%

1.2%

-0.1%

97%全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地產(chǎn)）

26.9%

26.2%

13.0%

5.5%

1.8%

-0.4%

-1.7%

2.9%

1.8%

-2.1%

40%全部港美中概股（去重）

21.8% 21.4%

9.6%

2.8%

-1.4%

-3.4%

-6.4%

-0.9%

-2.8%

-6.8%

55%注1：考慮港股一季報(bào)并非強(qiáng)制披露，一季報(bào)主要的公布結(jié)構(gòu)（能源、可選消費(fèi)、金融和信息技術(shù)為主，可參考附錄）與當(dāng)前披露率決定當(dāng)前一季報(bào)數(shù)據(jù)僅能對(duì)上游能源板塊形成數(shù)據(jù)交叉驗(yàn)證左右。注2：圖中披露率為市值披露率，基準(zhǔn)為2024/5/3的市值資料來(lái)源：，圖表10：當(dāng)前一季報(bào)來(lái)看，歸母凈利潤(rùn)情況亦顯示能源與材料行業(yè)盈利情況或在1Q24進(jìn)一步承壓全部港美中資股一級(jí)分類(lèi)二級(jí)分類(lèi) 三級(jí)分類(lèi)2021-12-312022-03-312022-06-302022-09-302022-12-312023-03-312023-06-302023-09-302023-12-312024-03-31當(dāng)前披露率能源149.8%52.5% 16.6% 33.7% 24.2% 12.5%-6.8% -4.0% -5.7% -9.6%96%材料金屬、非金屬與采礦化工建材Ⅲ容器與包裝紙與林木產(chǎn)品48.4%41.3%14.0%-3.9%-16.1%-29.0%-41.2%-38.0% -38.2%-41.6%-45.8%96%195.5% 165.4%74.9% 40.0% 33.1%4.3%-22.9% -26.2%-37.7%96%58.8% 59.4% 100.1% 162.0% 197.5% 211.0%13792.9%-511.9%34.0%0%4.3%-3.2%-18.7%-184.5%-92.1%-1.5%-34.7%-56.0%-63.3% -64.1%-56.0%-34.9%-24.9%94%-137.9% -131.2%-4332.2%217.2% 218.0%162.0%113.0%-435.9%0%26.9%-61.3%-97.0% -91.2% -118.0%-361.2%-971.2%-741.3%-357.5%100%工業(yè)資本貨物電氣設(shè)備機(jī)械商業(yè)和專(zhuān)業(yè)服務(wù)運(yùn)輸62.3%33.8%-26.0% -26.0%-28.4%-22.6%-1.7%14.3%20.9%74%-5.6%-15.4%-17.9%-28.9%-2.2%3.4% 3.9%19.3%5.6%49.3%9.5%-1.8%81%-93.8% -96.2%-50.3%-62.2%621.2%1102.4%53.4%123.1%-22.5%61%-6.6%-22.6%-42.0%-56.3%-32.0%-21.8%-3.9%31.8%15.2%100%29.2%21.1%14.5%37.7%-8.1%-46.2% -56.3% -67.8% -68.7%-46.5%-268.1%19%11551.6%353.2%-21.1%-59.1%-66.4%-59.8%-33.9%45.1% 103.9%68%可選消費(fèi)汽車(chē)與汽車(chē)零部件耐用消費(fèi)品與服裝消費(fèi)者服務(wù)Ⅱ媒體Ⅱ零售業(yè)-67.0% -73.0%-53.4%34.6%198.7%336.5%222.7%109.9% 102.8%20.8%22.2%27%15.5%-1.4%5.3%48.6% 45.4% 47.2% 42.4% 47.1%66.1%61%52.4%83.2%30.0%6.5%9.1%3.3% 4.0% 3.3%8.2%11.8% 10.8%100%-0.2%-34.9%-47.0%-17.6%-63.5%-41.2%-2.8%64.0%177.8%33.2%60%-17.8%-24.4% -26.0%8.4%221.6%33.4%40.7% 44.1%28.4%7.3%3%0%0%0%0%0%-156.6% -162.6% -150.4%3046.7%49.0%297.3% 579.7% 345.5%168.6%日常消費(fèi)食品與主要用品零售Ⅱ食品、飲料與煙草家庭與個(gè)人用品170.4%209.2%115.0%-3.6%-26.4% -27.1% -25.8%-6.6%-51.0%-38.0%-1.8%44.7% 43.0%50.5% 51.1%29.3%7.1%147.5%177.2%96.1%34.2%-8.5%-28.9% -29.2% -26.2%-6.5%-27.2%-36.9%7.3%-34.6%-13.4%36.4%-2.7%37.2%-42.7%醫(yī)療保健醫(yī)療保健設(shè)備與服務(wù)制藥、生物科技與生命科學(xué)54.5%2.0%-12.5%-9.5%-15.7%-21.0%-15.0%3.6% 2.8%39.1%13.7%-20.6%-16.0%328.2%-8.1%-11.6%0.7%13.1%-1.7%2.8%-9.0%99%146.1%14.2%-30.4% -28.7%-5.5%8.1%84.8%41.9%-24.5%23%金融銀行多元金融保險(xiǎn)Ⅱ13.3%11.0%0.2%-6.5%-7.8%-4.8% -4.7%-1.1%0.8%1.0%-4.8%-2.2%89%15.7%38.8%18.0%5.7%-1.4%-2.4%-3.5%-2.9%-29.7%1.1%88%19.8%-3.2%-22.0%-35.8%-29.2%-19.2%-12.4%-30.5%84%-11.9%-28.0% -27.8% -27.8%-25.9%4.3%-0.7%-7.4%7.3%-10.7%96%房地產(chǎn)-48.4%-53.3%-59.5%-55.3%-18.6%4.3%5.2%27.2%23.1%-9.3%-55.8%-48.1%15%信息技術(shù)軟件與服務(wù)技術(shù)硬件與設(shè)備半導(dǎo)體與半導(dǎo)體生產(chǎn)設(shè)備93.2%114.9%56.3%77.4%2.7%16.4%35.2%18.4%41.0% 42.2%50.3% 50.6%-10.6%1%0%14.5%10.0%23.7%-12.7%12.2%-39.6%-68.3% -71.7%-60.7%-15.9%11.7%51.2%147.3%137.2%3.8%15%155.3%211.1%102.4%80.4%54.8%-11.8%-37.9%-54.9%-89.4%5%電信服務(wù)24.7%26.1%7.4%2.0%0.7% 0.9%3.1%7.4%9.3%125.5%6.4%100%公用事業(yè)-85.6%-125.5% -131.4%-118.5%294.7% 340.7% 396.7%1174.5%100.2%97%全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地產(chǎn)）53.5%23.2%-1.1%5.3%6.8%9.3% 8.0% 15.4%5.6%-4.6%40全部港美中概股（去重）22.0%13.5%-1.2%-3.5% -3.4%-0.2% -0.3%4.6% 2.3%-5.2%55%注1：考慮港股一季報(bào)并非強(qiáng)制披露，一季報(bào)主要的公布結(jié)構(gòu)（能源、可選消費(fèi)、金融和信息技術(shù)為主，可參考附錄）與當(dāng)前披露率決定當(dāng)前一季報(bào)數(shù)據(jù)僅能對(duì)上游能源板塊形成數(shù)據(jù)交叉驗(yàn)證左右。注2：圖中披露率為市值披露率，基準(zhǔn)為2024/5/3的市值資料來(lái)源：，不過(guò)從非金融地產(chǎn)部門(mén)經(jīng)營(yíng)性現(xiàn)金流（OCF）增速來(lái)看，其相對(duì)表現(xiàn)良好，與歸母凈利潤(rùn)表現(xiàn)形成較大差異，最大的區(qū)別在于軟件與服務(wù)——行業(yè)權(quán)重股的投資性損益造成了利潤(rùn)增速和經(jīng)營(yíng)性現(xiàn)金流增速的分歧。（結(jié)構(gòu)數(shù)據(jù)詳見(jiàn)后文）圖表11：非金融地產(chǎn)海外中資股的經(jīng)營(yíng)性現(xiàn)金流量?jī)纛~（OCF）底部拐點(diǎn)或亦在1H23確立

全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地產(chǎn)）OCF增速全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地產(chǎn)）歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速

120%100%80%60%40%20%0%1H182H181H192H191H202H201H212H211H222H221H232H23-10% -20%1H182H181H192H191H202H201H212H211H222H221H232H23資料來(lái)源：，ROETTMROEROE資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率和庫(kù)存周轉(zhuǎn)率皆有比較明顯的提升。前者對(duì)應(yīng)港股重資產(chǎn)行業(yè)產(chǎn)能供給側(cè)的相ROE拖累。圖表12：非金融地產(chǎn)海外中資股ROETTM杜邦拆解非金融地產(chǎn)港美中資股凈利率非金融地產(chǎn)港美中資股ROE(RHS)非金融地產(chǎn)港美中資股凈利率非金融地產(chǎn)港美中資股ROE(RHS)7% 6% 5% 4%

14%ROERHS)10%1H111H121H131H141H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H231H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

整體港美中資股ROE

非金融地產(chǎn)港美中資股ROE非金融地產(chǎn)港美中資股ROE(RHS)13%12%11%10%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

80%70%60%50%40%30%

非金融地產(chǎn)港美中資股總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率非金融地產(chǎn)港美中資股ROE(RHS)

14%12%10%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

500%450%400%350%300%

14%ROE(RHS)10%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H233.23.02.82.62.4

非金融地產(chǎn)港美中資股權(quán)益乘數(shù)非金融地產(chǎn)港美中資股非金融地產(chǎn)港美中資股權(quán)益乘數(shù)非金融地產(chǎn)港美中資股ROE(RHS)

14%ROE(RHS)10%1H111H121H131H141H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H231H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

負(fù)債合計(jì)非金融地產(chǎn)港美中資股ROE(RHS)

14%12%10%1H111H121H131H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23資料來(lái)源：，ROE/OCFROE改善明顯考慮投資性損益帶來(lái)的信息擾動(dòng)和港股整體結(jié)構(gòu)特點(diǎn)，對(duì)于非金融地產(chǎn)部門(mén)，我們擬采用ROETTM和經(jīng)營(yíng)性現(xiàn)金流雙視角為錨，尋找港股行業(yè)中具備盈利亮點(diǎn)的板塊。先看經(jīng)營(yíng)性現(xiàn)金流（TTM）同比增速，同比增速改善的行業(yè)主要聚集在可選消費(fèi)和信息技OCF增速自2（皆不低于%/需求側(cè)逐步見(jiàn)底回暖。對(duì)于信息技術(shù)部門(mén)，軟件與服務(wù)（含互聯(lián)網(wǎng)游戲）的經(jīng)營(yíng)性現(xiàn)金流高增反應(yīng)明顯的經(jīng)營(yíng)改善（此處不含投資性損益。圖表13：經(jīng)營(yíng)性現(xiàn)金流視角下，改善明顯的行業(yè)主要聚集在可選消費(fèi)和信息技術(shù)全部港美中資股一級(jí)分類(lèi)二級(jí)分類(lèi) 三級(jí)分類(lèi) 1H18 2H18 1H19 2H19 1H20 2H20 1H21 2H21 1H22 2H22 1H23 2H232H23環(huán)比1H23環(huán)比當(dāng)前分位數(shù)趨勢(shì)圖差分 差分

自2H11工業(yè)可選消費(fèi)

金屬、非金屬與采礦化工建材Ⅲ容器與包裝紙與林木產(chǎn)品資本貨物商業(yè)和專(zhuān)業(yè)服務(wù)運(yùn)輸

電氣設(shè)備機(jī)械

16.2%68.1%53.0%14.7%83.7%677.2%878.7%6.1%10.8%-125.2%92.4%-352.4%-1.6%-6.2%

-4.2%42.5%-6.4%73.0%148.0%-101.0%-9.8%-15.1%398.1%2.7%-50.9%1.7%-10.0%

-10.1%7.8%-24.8%43.7%59.3%-32.0%32.8%-13.3%-26.3%-11.0%-62.3%17.5%22.6%

-7.5%4.9%-20.2%4.8%31.6%-13.6%34.3%35.8%105.8%44.7%-146.7%33.4%42.1%

-11.6%13.1%7.6%-7.3%22.0%4.9%-5.4%26.4%62.3%52.7%-33.2%-24.4%19.7%

-1.8%10.0%23.0%5.8%-3.0%-0.5%15.3%-6.8%-3.7%61.3%34.5%

20.8%19.9%46.7%-7.3%3.2%-39.4%25.8%-37.3%-81.9%-9.8%87.8%96.5%56.0%

35.1%22.4%71.5%84.7%-15.1%29.9%-21.5%-21.1%-82.1%-3.5%171.3%149.9%29.6%

32.2%-4.6%22.0%68.7%-31.6%10.7%-64.7%136.0%420.5%-7.6%666.1%56.0%19.5%

-2.8%-28.7%-15.0%1.9%-51.7%-11.8%-61.0%80.0%463.0%-14.5%219.2%1.4%12.5%

-8.6%-7.5%23.2%64.3%30.9%

2.6%8.5%8.3%18.8%50.7%18.4%19.2%45.4%53.6%

14.7% -9.3%37.8% -0.6%32.0% -8.7%-20.6% -10.5%63.4% 7.1%58.1% 4.4%36.1% 43.3%-13.4%-113.3%-22.9%-499.0%-73.4%-2318.6%40.4% -6.7%-18.8%-155.0%-2.6% -32.9%22.7% 18.4%

50%42%42%13%63%75%67%4%13%21%54%54%4%79%汽車(chē)與汽車(chē)零部件

1.4%

-21.3%

-27.4%

28.7%

23.0%

17.4%

43.3%

75%耐用消費(fèi)品與服裝

6.6%

28.5%

-15.2%

-35.4%

-24.6%

17.4%

18.7%

79%消費(fèi)者服務(wù)Ⅱ

18.3%

-7.4%

16.3%

-10.9%-10.6%

51.3%

-38.4%

-37.4%

58.9%

100%媒體Ⅱ

745.9%

93.3%

-16.7%-14.7%

40.4%

28.6%

-7.8%

-35.0%

-27.1%

17%零售業(yè)

-39.1%

-24.2%

55.5%

-13.8%

-4.3%

53.2%

-15.6%

42%日常消費(fèi)

4.2%

8.7%

3.7%

13.9%

2.3%

-3.0%

-1.2% -0.3%

0.9% 13.6%

38%食品與主要用品零售Ⅱ

45.5%

6.1%

-33.8%

6.3%

-54.6%

-66.4%

-92.0%

-25.6%-199.5% 0%食品、飲料與煙草

3.3%

11.4%

-3.9%

-18.4%

2.1%

0.5%

42%家庭與個(gè)人用品

-56.6%

92.9%101.1%1199.0%11412.9%

34.6%

-79.2%

-20.6%

-206.8%

-75964.1%76114.1%

83%醫(yī)療保健

26.0% 12.9%

-29.1%

14.4%

35.3% 32.2%

42%醫(yī)療保健設(shè)備與服務(wù)

372.2%

-39.6%

184.0%194.5%

-4.3%

40.9%

-14.9%

-54.8%

33.3%

-102.5%

33%制藥、生物科技與生命科學(xué)

49.7%

28.4%

-4.9%

-12.7%

-14.1%

-23.3%

-66.3%

-39.1%

60.4%

50%信息技術(shù)

29.5%

-9.6%

6.5%

14.5%

-3.7%

-11.6%

0.3%

42.9%

17.1% 25.5%

83%軟件與服務(wù)

19.3%

-4.1%

-3.1%

-11.9%

-14.2%

-12.3%

23.5%

34.1%

100%技術(shù)硬件與設(shè)備

529.8%

-92.8%

-57.7%

-54.3%-57.7%

67.4%280.5%

213.0%

83%半導(dǎo)體與半導(dǎo)體生產(chǎn)設(shè)備

39.6%

-7.3% -3.2%

-20.6%

82.9%

-39.5%

-54.6%-133.7% 8%電信服務(wù)

-0.1%

-8.9%

-4.5%

19.0%

6.2%

-3.5%

-2.5%

9.1% 2.6%

25%公用事業(yè)

9.1%

6.1% 7.7%

14.0%

8.0% 8.7%

44.8%

7.3%

-37.5% -38.3%

38%全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地產(chǎn)）OCF增速資料來(lái)源：，

13.4%

-2.6% -3.5%

13.1%

11.4%

10.8%

13.2%

10.3%

18.1%

5.2%

-8.3%

1.5%

9.9% -13.5%

29%再看O（TTM對(duì)于OOE不低且穩(wěn)定？ROE環(huán)比改善比較明顯？ROE1H22（是當(dāng)前港股高股息的主要品種（前提是需求不弱1Q24ROE（重點(diǎn)看含有互聯(lián)網(wǎng)電商的零售業(yè)ROE環(huán)比變化&固定資產(chǎn)/存貨周轉(zhuǎn)率亦雙雙提升，后者與負(fù)債端數(shù)據(jù)交叉驗(yàn)證：杠桿率略升下有息負(fù)債占比明顯下降，或?qū)?yīng)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈話(huà)語(yǔ)權(quán)/現(xiàn)金管理能力提升（當(dāng)然，這個(gè)因素也會(huì)體現(xiàn)在利潤(rùn)率中圖表14：ROETTM視角下，環(huán)比改善明顯的行業(yè)主要為化工、公用和可選消費(fèi)類(lèi)品種一級(jí)分類(lèi)能源一級(jí)分類(lèi)能源全部港美中資股二級(jí)分類(lèi)三級(jí)分類(lèi)1H185.9%2H186.5%1H196.7%2H196.6%1H202.6%2H203.8%1H218.5%2H21 1H22 2H22 1H238.6% 10.7% 11.6% 10.9%2H2311.1%2H23環(huán)比1H23環(huán)比當(dāng)前分位數(shù)趨勢(shì)圖0.1%-0.7%H1188%材料9.3%9.1%8.3%7.3%6.4%8.5% 10.5% 10.5% 9.8%7.8%5.4%5.6%0.2% -2.4%46%金屬、非金屬與采礦7.5%6.2%4.6%2.6%1.8%4.8%8.3%9.4% 10.1% 8.9%6.0%6.1%0.0% -2.9%67%化工3.2%7.4%7.2%6.1%4.5%3.0%6.6%8.0%8.2% 10.6% 9.6% 14.4% 4.7% -1.0%100%建材Ⅲ14.9% 16.8% 17.4% 17.5% 16.1% 17.0% 15.5% 13.6% 10.5% 5.9%4.2%3.9% -0.3% -1.7%4%容器與包裝6.9% -2.6% 1.1%1.3% -1.1% -3.8% -2.8% -6.1% -11.8%-17.4%-22.5%-22.7%-0.2% -5.1%0%紙與林木產(chǎn)品11.8% 6.8%2.8%3.8%4.2%3.2%8.7%7.2%0.6%0.8% -3.5% -0.6% 2.9% -4.2%4%工業(yè)7.0%6.6%6.9%7.3%5.5%5.7%7.1%6.4%6.7%6.2%5.3%5.6%0.3% -0.9%17%資本貨物8.6%8.4%8.6%8.9%7.6%8.9%8.9%7.3%6.3%6.7%6.7%7.2%0.6% -0.1%17%電氣設(shè)備6.2%5.8%6.0%6.0%5.3%6.7%4.2% -0.4% -1.1% 1.4%3.7%3.8%0.1%2.3%21%機(jī)械8.7%8.4%9.4%9.4%9.6% 12.4% 12.1% 8.8%5.7%5.7%6.5%7.7%1.3%0.8%46%商業(yè)和專(zhuān)業(yè)服務(wù)10.2% 8.0%7.5%7.9%8.2%9.4%9.5%7.7%6.6%6.3%6.4%5.7% -0.6% 0.0%0%運(yùn)輸4.7%4.1%4.5%5.0%2.2%0.6%4.3%4.9%7.1%5.5%3.5%3.3% -0.1% -2.0%29%可選消費(fèi)6.1% -1.2% 1.6%6.7%4.7%5.2%6.1%3.3%3.1%4.5%6.2%8.3%2.1%1.8%63%汽車(chē)與汽車(chē)零部件11.1% 9.2%8.4%5.8%4.8%5.0%7.1%5.4%4.0%4.9%5.3%6.9%1.6%0.4%29%耐用消費(fèi)品與服裝11.2% 10.4% 11.4% 12.9% 9.4% 11.9% 15.7% 12.8% 11.1% 8.4%8.1%9.8%1.7% -0.3%42%消費(fèi)者服務(wù)Ⅱ6.4%6.8%6.4%7.2%2.4%3.0%5.5%2.8%1.4%0.5%2.5%4.4%1.9%2.0%33%媒體Ⅱ10.3% 1.1%3.6%5.1%1.8% -5.8% -0.8% 3.4%4.4%3.5%4.8%5.1%0.3%1.3%71%零售業(yè)-18.2%-65.9%-28.5% 4.2%4.1%5.9%1.3% -3.6% -1.1% 4.8%9.5% 12.9% 3.4%4.7%96%日常消費(fèi)2.5%2.6%2.2%4.5%4.0%4.8%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.2%5.0%4.8% -0.2% -0.2%58%食品與主要用品零售Ⅱ-2.0% -5.7% -7.0% -10.3%-15.7%-30.5%-14.8%-20.6%-18.3%-11.5%-12.4%-17.9%-5.5% -0.9%13%食品、飲料與煙草2.7%2.8%2.4%4.6%4.3%5.1%5.5%5.3%5.3%5.2%5.1%4.9% -0.2% -0.2%54%家庭與個(gè)人用品-3.4% -13.4%-18.1%17.4% -0.6% 42.4% -4.7% 40.3% 3.4% 30.6% 28.8% 24.9% -3.8% -1.8%83%醫(yī)療保健10.1% 8.1%7.8%5.2%4.6%4.1%7.7%7.1%4.1%1.7%2.0%2.7%0.6%0.3%8%醫(yī)療保健設(shè)備與服務(wù)9.1%7.5%8.6%7.7%7.4%7.3%7.6%4.6%5.1%4.2%4.6%5.3%0.7%0.4%17%制藥、生物科技與生命科學(xué)10.5% 8.3%7.5%4.4%3.8%3.1%7.7%7.7%3.9%1.3%1.6%2.2%0.6%0.3%8%信息技術(shù)8.8%8.0%8.4%6.3%3.9%5.2%6.1%5.6%5.0%6.5%7.4%5.2% -2.2% 0.9%17%軟件與服務(wù)18.2% 11.3% 13.0% 9.0%4.0%6.1%7.0%6.6%6.2%9.1% 11.9% 8.7% -3.2% 2.8%21%技術(shù)硬件與設(shè)備-13.0%63.1% 14.7% 11.3% 11.8% 15.0% 16.7% 10.5% 4.9%4.0%6.1%8.4%2.3%2.0%63%半導(dǎo)體與半導(dǎo)體生產(chǎn)設(shè)備1.2%0.8%0.4%0.8%0.9%0.7%1.8%2.7%3.5%4.1%3.2%1.4% -1.9% -0.8%46%電信服務(wù)7.6%6.9%6.7%6.5%6.5%7.0%6.8%6.7%6.7%6.6%7.1%7.6%0.4%0.6%50%公用事業(yè)7.9%6.2%6.4%6.8%6.4%6.9%8.1%4.6%1.4%4.5%5.6%7.0%1.4%1.2%46%全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地產(chǎn)）7.1%6.1%6.4%6.7%4.8%5.5%7.4%6.5%6.4%6.7%6.7%6.8%0.2%0.0%63%全部港美中概股（去重）9.3%8.5%8.8%9.2%7.5%8.1%8.4%7.6%6.8%6.7%6.5%7.1%0.6% -0.2%13%注：對(duì)于部分行業(yè)，盡管數(shù)據(jù)或許還可以，但綜合考慮海外中資股權(quán)重結(jié)構(gòu)、標(biāo)的可投資性和市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性，在此僅作數(shù)據(jù)展示。資料來(lái)源：，圖表15：零售業(yè)ROE杜邦拆解-1%-3%-5%

零售業(yè)港美中資股凈利率

ROEROERHS)15%10%-5%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

零售業(yè)港美中資股固定資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率

零售業(yè)港美中資股ROE(RHS)零售業(yè)港美中資股ROE(RHS)15%10%-5%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H2314%13%12%11%10%

非金融地產(chǎn)港美中資股ROE

ROEROERHS)15%10%-5%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

200%180%160%140%120%100%80%60%

零售業(yè)港美中資股總資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率

零售業(yè)港美中資股ROE(RHS)零售業(yè)港美中資股ROE(RHS)15%10%-5%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

1450%1250%1050%850%650%450%

零售業(yè)港美中資股存貨周轉(zhuǎn)率

零售業(yè)港美中資股ROE(RHS)零售業(yè)港美中資股ROE(RHS)15%10%-5%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

零售業(yè)港美中資股權(quán)益乘數(shù)

零售業(yè)港美中資股ROE(RHS)零售業(yè)港美中資股ROE(RHS)15%10%-5%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

零售業(yè)港美中資股ROE(RHS)20%零售業(yè)港美中資股ROE(RHS)15%10%-5%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H231H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

零售業(yè)港美中資股有息負(fù)債占比負(fù)債合計(jì)零售業(yè)港美中資股零售業(yè)港美中資股ROE(RHS)

20%15%10%-5%-10%資料來(lái)源：，圖表16：公用事業(yè)ROE杜邦拆解

公用事業(yè)港美中資股凈利率公用事業(yè)港美中資股公用事業(yè)港美中資股凈利率公用事業(yè)港美中資股ROE(RHS)1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

ROERHS)1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H2314%13%12%11%10%

非金融地產(chǎn)港美中資股ROE

ROEROERHS)12%10%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

34%32%30%28%26%24%22%20%

率ROE

15%10%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

800%700%600%500%400%300%

ROE

14%12%10%1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H234.54.34.13.93.73.5

公用事業(yè)港美中資股權(quán)益乘數(shù)公用事業(yè)港美中資股公用事業(yè)港美中資股權(quán)益乘數(shù)公用事業(yè)港美中資股ROE(RHS)1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

ROE(RHS)1H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H231H111H121H111H121H131H141H151H161H171H181H191H201H211H221H23

公用事業(yè)港美中資股有息負(fù)債占比負(fù)債合計(jì)公用事業(yè)港美中資股ROE(RHS)

14%12%10%資料來(lái)源：，資本開(kāi)支：結(jié)構(gòu)上尋找具備產(chǎn)能供給優(yōu)勢(shì)或壓力下降雙主線(xiàn)先以固定資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率衡量當(dāng)前靜態(tài)產(chǎn)能利用率，尋找最高與最低的標(biāo)的。整體來(lái)看，當(dāng)前（與服務(wù)部門(mén)固定資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率分位數(shù)較低。其中，對(duì)于前者，重點(diǎn)結(jié)合資本開(kāi)支情況考察其遠(yuǎn)期產(chǎn)能供給結(jié)構(gòu)；對(duì)于后者，先結(jié)合資本開(kāi)支（是否低資本開(kāi)支）情況判定產(chǎn)能供給側(cè)狀況、進(jìn)一步結(jié)合需求側(cè)考察是否存在新一輪資本開(kāi)支周期（若沒(méi)有資本開(kāi)支則或出現(xiàn)潛在的分紅/回購(gòu)中樞提升）的可能性。圖表17：中上游與可選消費(fèi)固定資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率歷史分位數(shù)（自1H11）高、醫(yī)療與信息技術(shù)板塊固定資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率歷史分位數(shù)較低一級(jí)分類(lèi)二級(jí)分類(lèi)三級(jí)分類(lèi)1H182H181H192H191H202H201H212H211H222H221H232H232H23環(huán)比差分1H23環(huán)比差分能源28%44%64%60%40%32%52%80%88%92%96%100%4%4%材料28%32%36%44%48%64%84%96%92%76%72%80%8%-4%金屬、非金屬與采礦24%28%32%40%44%52%68%80%88%84%72%76%4%-12%化工52%80%84%72%36%44%48%68%64%32%16%56%40%-16%建材Ⅲ52%72%80%88%84%100%96%92%76%64%60%68%8%-4%容器與包裝100%92%76%80%40%72%84%88%60%56%64%68%4%8%紙與林木產(chǎn)品92%44%20%48%52%72%96%88%68%76%60%64%4%-16%工業(yè)資本貨物商業(yè)和專(zhuān)業(yè)服務(wù)運(yùn)輸電氣設(shè)備機(jī)械12%4%16%44%48%68%92%96%76%80%88%84%-4%8%48%44%60%64%68%96%100%92%80%84%88%76%-12%4%64%40%48%88%68%100%92%44%12%32%72%0%-72%40%28%40%56%60%72%84%88%80%48%44%64%76%12%20%28%52%60%76%80%96%92%88%84%64%68%72%4%4%12%24%20%32%8%28%44%80%72%76%56%52%-4%-20%可選消費(fèi)56%44%48%64%52%92%100%96%84%76%80%88%8%4%汽車(chē)與汽車(chē)零部件64%48%40%36%24%56%76%72%60%84%92%96%4%8%耐用消費(fèi)品與服裝52%56%36%28%12%60%68%80%32%24%44%16%-28%20%消費(fèi)者服務(wù)Ⅱ24%36%32%48%20%44%56%52%28%8%16%40%24%8%媒體Ⅱ56%64%60%92%84%100%88%96%76%80%72%68%-4%-8%零售業(yè)64%48%52%72%80%96%100%92%84%68%60%88%28%-8%日常消費(fèi)0%24%12%56%52%60%64%68%48%40%44%32%-12%4%食品與主要用品零售Ⅱ16%48%64%76%68%100%72%96%84%80%88%92%4%8%食品、飲料與煙草0%24%12%52%56%60%68%64%48%40%44%28%-16%4%家庭與個(gè)人用品0%4%20%88%40%92%32%96%84%52%64%56%-8%12%醫(yī)療保健68%52%64%56%36%32%24%16%12%8%4%0%-4%-4%醫(yī)療保健設(shè)備與服務(wù)44%60%80%88%84%96%92%76%52%48%72%56%-16%24%制藥、生物科技與生命科學(xué)72%64%68%60%56%48%52%44%32%12%4%0%-4%-8%信息技術(shù)64%72%60%84%56%100%76%92%48%32%8%0%-8%-24%軟件與服務(wù)88%92%24%80%52%96%36%32%8%4%20%28%8%16%技術(shù)硬件與設(shè)備84%56%60%64%68%88%100%96%72%52%40%44%4%-12%半導(dǎo)體與半導(dǎo)體生產(chǎn)設(shè)備60%36%24%12%4%8%16%20%32%40%28%0%-28%-12%電信服務(wù)68%4%20%24%32%84%80%72%76%92%96%100%4%4%公用事業(yè)24%32%44%64%48%68%72%84%80%92%96%100%4%4%全部港美中概股（去重，非金融地產(chǎn)）24%36%44%64%48%68%80%92%84%88%96%100%4%8%注：表中中間數(shù)字為固定資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率歷史分位數(shù)，歷史分位數(shù)的計(jì)算自1H11至2H23，右側(cè)兩列為分位數(shù)的環(huán)比差分。計(jì)算歷史分位數(shù)可便于跨行業(yè)比較。資料來(lái)源：，先看高固定資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率歷史分位數(shù)（TTM口徑，下同）的行業(yè)。對(duì)于港股上游能源與中游材料領(lǐng)域，其資本開(kāi)支情況展現(xiàn)出一定的分化。對(duì)于能源行業(yè)，其資本開(kāi)支比折舊攤銷(xiāo)（Capex/D&A，TTM口徑，下同）1.5Capex/D&A較（前提是需求不弱優(yōu)勢(shì)比材料更高。港股中游制造（此處需注意，港股中游不是市場(chǎng)主要結(jié)構(gòu)、且成分和A股差異或較大）方面，以資本貨物為主的工業(yè)部門(mén)和可選消費(fèi)中的汽車(chē)（汽車(chē)業(yè)亦有中游制造屬性）固定資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率歷史分位數(shù)自高位邊際下滑，進(jìn)一步結(jié)合考慮其產(chǎn)能投放（資本性開(kāi)支/折舊攤銷(xiāo)歷史分位數(shù)）仍處于歷史高位區(qū)間、且絕對(duì)讀數(shù)也很大，港股中游制造部門(mén)或仍將面臨較大的產(chǎn)能消化壓力。（含互聯(lián)網(wǎng)電商（高于%且邊際提升、和相對(duì)不高的資本開(kāi)支情況（Capex/D&A231.5左右且歷史分位數(shù)不高于%，在當(dāng)前時(shí)點(diǎn)或亦存在供給優(yōu)勢(shì)。此外，電信與公用事業(yè)或亦具備一定供給優(yōu)勢(shì)，其固定資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率皆至歷史高位、且資本/D&A40%Capex/D&A絕。圖表18：資本開(kāi)支比折舊攤銷(xiāo)，絕對(duì)數(shù)值水位全部港美中資股一級(jí)分類(lèi)二級(jí)分類(lèi)三級(jí)分類(lèi)1H182H181H192H191H202H201H212H211H222H221H232H232H23環(huán)比1H23環(huán)比能源0.911.061.181.311.291.161.181.181.201.221.381.34-3.3%13.1%材料1.181.091.161.441.441.461.841.871.911.891.791.832.3%-5.2%金屬、非金屬與采礦1.070.931.001.171.171.191.441.401.361.421.551.7210.9%9.4%化工1.611.551.612.052.232.072.262.642.932.361.921.66-13.5%-18.5%建材Ⅲ1.291.411.622.242.232.233.093.203.443.402.612.32-11.1%-23.1%容器與包裝2.562.131.752.752.431.582.112.141.651.511.291.22-5.7%-14.1%紙與林木產(chǎn)品42.4451.3732.2215.4112.314.826.4211.4118.4911.332.755.0182.5%-75.8%工業(yè)2.982.922.682.042.302.312.122.021.881.641.912.1110.9%16.1%資本貨物3.203.042.993.203.153.503.884.184.173.963.923.80-2.9%-0.9%電氣設(shè)備2.642.522.834.073.825.955.816.668.889.108.877.04-20.6%-2.5%機(jī)械1.932.292.524.874.644.415.165.465.214.894.896.7437.8%-0.1%商業(yè)和專(zhuān)業(yè)服務(wù)4.124.234.524.013.593.133.202.962.641.941.691.817.1%-13.2%運(yùn)輸2.852.842.501.541.941.861.461.331.190.991.341.6421.9%35.4%可選消費(fèi)2.011.901.771.361.291.241.331.411.621.902.122.245.5%11.8%汽車(chē)與汽車(chē)零部件2.372.122.2